Kasimir

Bro I was Village and remained Village, you were paranoiding on me relentlessly in the last Day. I get why since my voting patterns sucked this game, but man......... Still amused my 'gut I can't prove this' team turned out to be right, considering my past self used to hate dealing with gut in SE. Edited to add: Thanks Mat for GMing. Had some fun even though I was really too stressed and pressed for time to do much analysis or actual thinking/tracking in this game like I should have. I was really just looking at thread between studying for my exams and trying to think was basically trying to make thoughts go cleanly in the sleep-deprivation-and-caffeine-fog but I didn't want to go inactive if I could possibly help it. And thanks for Archer's Mark, Elim team I actually wouldn't and the fact that I wouldn't is why I didn't find this a convincing line of reasoning. I also ignored your NKA because I haven't been playing recently and don't have enough familiarity with the playerbase anymore beyond "x would threatkill, x would low info kill." To be honest, no. It worked for Vulture but you're in the category of players I'm always going to be somewhat paranoid of, because I think you play too much with player meta to be trusted simpliciter. See: last minute Vulture tunnel with Mat screaming at me we needed to secure the lynch. Oh come on I just get carried away by puzzle-solving. And you lot need to stop listening to Wyrm's lies I just hate sleep >> Even I don't know what Evil!Kas would do, let alone Araris.......... Edited to add #2: @Ookla the Pianist I think I wasn't substantively wedded to the idea of Thugs but that the Elim team needed some survivability. I would have blinked and been very surprised if they had absolutely nothing with the number of one-shot kills flying around, but I'm influenced by Hael's Canim game where everyone had a kill and went in guns firing on D1. The fact they are all Spinners makes sense to me as a way to strike that balance. I didn't work out it's % based, basically. I did feel the kills might have been a Seek but it didn't make sense to me because the jig would've been up sooner or later. The % twist makes sense as a way to throw a wrench into that. Edited to add #3: Thanks @Elandera for the save @ookla the quantificational - I watched and played Digimon S1 as a kid but didn't get into further seasons, partly because I didn't watch that much TV as a kid, and partly because access to cartoons here can be pretty irregular. Recently Wyrm has been dragging me through a Digimon game and the Wormmon there was pretty cool so I got back into S2 for more Wormmon content (despite that being a different Wormmon) and then they hurt my boy ;-;

Heads-up that I have changed my profile picture to best boy Wormmon. My user title, my username, and my sig all remain the same, and I don't think we have a lynch tomorrow unless Team Evil does something exceedingly weird so I don't foresee this being a substantive problem. Think this means you've overtaken Alv now. I admit I had read Szeth's vote as being more flexible than you did, but I really wasn't paying very much attention to this game. RNGesus wasn't with me until I flipped the sacred coin to decide whether to go for you or to see if I could make an all out push on Mage and try to talk Szeth into it. That Shardblade you gave up to Alv seems to have been worth it

I'm fine with it, Mat. This situation does make me feel a bit better as I was evaluating whether it was better to go for Mage over Araris in the final analysis. I especially distrusted how it felt like we were being directed to Mage. But the sacred coin said Araris and with Szeth in full force paranoia mode (deservedly, as I badly misread Sart and haven't been able to focus on this game), I didn't know if I could get him to join me on Mage. Now I feel better as it wasn't practicable but also wasn't as wise to hit Mage. Or at least, Mage isn't the clear cut better lynch target as he would have been in a two Thug scenario. @Ookla the Porched — Ironic indeed. Keeping your bussing rep intact?

Do your kills go through extra lives?

You? You die :eyes: Just kidding. But it's more or less what is likely to happen. It's interesting to me that Mat hasn't called this game because IMO since Araris does have an extra life, it's clear we can't win. I've used my kill, as have you, so the game should end tonight. You've been hit once so they know the NK will take you out. We just chill and sit out the Night. Araris and Mage look to be our remaining Elims. On the off-chance Mage isn't an Elim (which is zero - Mage read the thread but refused to swap votes to Araris despite claiming Araris was his primary preference which makes Mage Evil as well) Amused that my gut team that I couldn't prove was right after all. Quite practically, there's nothing we can do so we just chill. If there's actually another Day, then that's the Day's problem. If there's nothing we can do, why worry? May I offer you a Wormmon in these troubling times?

I'm too tired to be anxious by this point Wyrm has told me to YOLO vote and go back to Wormmon my slides and I think that's more or less my position after giving it one last try. I'm not seeing any further discussion here, nor willingness to engage with any arguments at this point, so I don't think it's going to be productive. Someone @ me if I'm needed to block Elim madness though I doubt they'll play their hand until the very last minute. Right now we have three people who have expressed willingness to vote for Araris. It's unlikely all of this group are Villagers but that brings me back to kayana paranoia territory I'm just too tired for. And I'm wary of re-enacting the last minute vote switcheroo mess that Vulture, Lion, and Dragonfly did in that LG. That's about it from me.

Double-posting to not inflate that post. It's been quite a while anyway and the thread is dead. Last big push ho. We know that there are at most two Elims and at least one other Villager. Otherwise the game would have ended. Given we have at least six non-Night kills [=Archer, Illwei, Danex, myself, Tani, one of <Szeth, Araris> who claimed a kill last Night] running around the game, three vanilla Elims seem an uphill task. So minimally, two-thirds of the playerbase have a kill. If Mage is correct about having an unused vig kill, this brings us up to 7/9 which is a frankly astounding amount of kills to not have any Elim protection or padding for. I'm ignoring more exotic possibilities here like Elims having one-shot or two-shot protects. I feel that if they did, they'd just have used it rather than shield Mage (Araris's theory) - then again, they may have judged that in a game like this, having a protect might seem sus since everyone and their uncle is a Thug. Possibility A: One regular Elim, two Thugs. This seems a bit strong for me, but it may not be as bad given Village firepower. On this possibility, Sart is our regular Elim, and we have two other Thugs, at least one of whom is on one remaining life. <Araris, Mage, Szeth> as my pool. Possibility B: Two regular Elims, one Thug: This seems roughly right and potentially plausible to me, given the kill prolificity of this game. On this possibility, Sart is one regular Elim. The other basically has to be Araris, who was lying about the kill on Mage to frame Szeth. (Everyone else apart from me and Araris is down to one life and I sure know I'm a Thug.) This means that our remaining Elim pair is Araris and Mage. [Again, Szeth and Araris could be trying to split the vote but it feels a bit unnecessarily elaborate and at this point, I think I'm just going to say it doesn't feel right and move on.] Possibility C: One regular Elim, one Thug. This seems a slightly underpowered Elim team, given the number of kills flying around, but perhaps Mat rounded down due to game size. On this possibility, Sart is our regular Elim. But who is the Thug? For me, it'd have to be a <Szeth, Araris, Mage> pool. But we can work things out a bit more: Szeth volunteering immediately to hit Mage makes pretty much no sense if Szeth isn't actually a Thug with a vigkill. The lack of a kill would've been pretty obvious. Araris's theory of Szeth shielding Mage doesn't work in a two Elim scenario, meaning our Elims have to be between Araris and Mage. But moreover, if we know that Szeth is likely actually a Village Thug with a vigkill, then ex hypothesi, our leftover Elim is basically Araris, because Araris and Szeth are conflicting about the stray kill. Possibility D: Three regular Elims. This also seems a slightly underpowered Elim team, given the number of kills flying around. It's also immediately false because I know I'm a Thug and I claimed the first attack on Tani. Moreover, Szeth and Mage both took one hit each. In other words, the numbers for a three regular Elim team just don't exist. To sum it up: <Possibility A, Possibility B, Possibility C, Possibility D>. I'm disregarding the two regular Elims scenario - far too underpowered. Either way you slice it, my analysis sets Szeth as more or less Village. I'm not sure if it's borne out by player behaviour - I'll return to that later. I'm very tempted to vote Araris at this point just because of the sheer number of times Araris appears in my possibilities, but once again, this is going to be a really big problem if Araris turns out to also be a Thug. The problem of course is Araris's sudden willingness to vote Mage, especially since Araris was pushing for Danex over Mage the previous cycle. This matters because Danex was the countertrain to the Mage train, which I started. (Yes, I know I swapped eventually but I'm also not taking myself to be a starter as a suspect since this is my analysis, thank you very much.) At this point, I'm not willing to look too closely at it because Elims have been known to try to peel votes away and then hammer at the last minute and I strongly expect an Elim hammer or mindgames if we're 2-2. In the scenario we're 3-1 (Possibility C), a Mage lynch is a very bad idea though, because this means we go 2-1 into the Night, Araris kills Szeth, and then we're 1-1 in the day voting, which is a cointoss. I win that, suppose, and we're into the Night 1-1. Either way it's over, because Araris has an extra life. But suppose Mage is lying about the NK. This would certainly make Mage an Elim with just an extra life. But this almost certainly makes one of Araris and Szeth a liar and it's likely Szeth - Huh. No. I think...Am I drunk? Am I just really sleep-deprived and stressed? Because now I think about it again I don't see why Szeth would lie about the Mage attack since he'd have to answer for it the next day anyway. Araris's theory is that it was to try to protect Mage, but Mage had an extra life. Moreover, the situation was only exacerbated because Araris claimed a last minute strike on Mage. If there was no kill on Mage, on top of Szeth's inconsistencies about his secondary ability, we would be asking, since Szeth's dominant theory is that the Elims are not Thugs. This is just a bit too kayana for an Elim (famous last words....) In other words, it only became an Araris-or-Szeth-is-lying situation because of Araris's post. If not, it'd have straightforwardly been a 'Szeth is lying' situation because of Szeth's claim to have hit Mage. This would not have been good for Elim Szeth. Which means I'm committed now to one if not both of Araris and Mage being Evil. I... Maker help me, I think Mage is Village. Araris felt like he was trying to set me up for a mislynch after Mage which... Sigh. And I still come back to the Sart vote. Yes, Araris voted on Sart. But an Elim team that was happy with a 50-50 on their regular or their Thug...that's a hard pill to swallow. A 50-50 on their regular and a Villager makes more sense. Araris, Mage @Mage, you can swap back if you want to. I'm just going to let the cards fall as they may.

Yes, thank you Mr GM sir, I needed this >> Last leg before noon. I'm committing to logging back in one more time to do my read and re-evaluation, but this will probably be after I get sleep as I haven't really slept in two days trying to finish this mid-term off and I don't want to be making too many analyses on pretty much no sleep. I'll have to get up to eat at some point so I'm guaranteed to check the thread and think more. Depends on Elim composition, off the top of my head. You're not wrong that if you have a NK remaining, then you NKing Araris means they'd NK you, because this scenario assumes you're a Villager. Which I am too low on SAN right now to work out if you really are. Since we're still assuming 2-2, we (Village) go 2-1 into the day because I have an additional life remaining. But that means I have a 2-1 brawl against Evil Szeth. Suppose I lose the tie cointoss. We go 1-1 into the Night, Szeth kills me. We lose. (Of course, I could win the cointoss, in which case Village wins. It's less dystopian than going mano-a-mano with Evil Thug Araris.) But...why didn't you put in a NK last Night? If he is a Thug, we have a 75% chance of losing this game, unless Mage is Village and has a NK, and even then, it's dicey if there's another Elim remaining (see what I said to Mage.) That's really awful odds and because it's so awful, I'd rather play to avoid it. The idea of having to win two coin tosses in a row isn't appealing. To be clear, I've claimed the NK on Tani, Danex claimed a kill and had no reason to lie, Mage claimed one (dunno), Tani claimed one, Illwei likely had one, and Archer claimed one. You claimed one as well. Araris claimed one. That's eight out of nine players, with the ninth being Sart, who's too dead to care. Even if we assume there is a three Elim team (rather than two) and they are all lying about having a kill, this puts us at 2/3 of the game having kills. The idea the Elims would have absolutely zero protection or extra lives against the kill is really wild because nothing stops them from a TPK on N1 if the entire game had gone shooting wild. Even more so if you also think it is a two-man team. The only scenario in which Araris is Evil and the two of you are also Villagers requires that he be a Thug because a two-man team with zero protection against seven kills flying around is extremely unbalanced. At this point, I'm staring at having to vote for the entire <Szeth, Araris, Mage> pool again because I'm so confused. But it has to be that the Elims are trying to force a mislynch. This is the only way I can make sense of why they haven't just unmasked themselves since we can't outvote them anyway, it's lylo. Which means that I need to look for who is pushing or encouraging vote spreading, I suppose. But urgh. Noon deadline. Deadline first. Edited to add: Alright, I am done (in both senses of the word.) So I should be able to at least do this/take a look/stuff. Lesgo Team Village.

I know, and Araris said it at the end of the last turn. Araris explained it as not wanting to risk an Elim protect but also not wanting to die with the info. Both your declarations seem legit to me on the face of it - Araris thinks Elim you would want to make that claim to shield Mage from a NK. I think Evil Araris would want to make the claim to set you up for a potential mislynch. In other words, to claim your action as his and then try to get you lynched. It's an odd choice though - I think I'd be a better mislynch target. I haven't been playing this game well and it shows when my own vote analysis throws me up as sus. But then, I wouldn't die, and on the assumption you are Village, framing you would make sense because if they can lynch you today, it's an automatic Village loss. This makes sense to me: if you are a Villager, then from your point of view, Szeth is the confirmed Elim, so you would go for the confirmed Elim. If you are an Elim, then you're probably trying to still seem like a Villager in order to split Village votes or get one defection and win the lynch without needing a cointoss. My difficulty is that it's not clear to me I should trust you. I know you've said you're trying to solve the game and I have picked up on that from C1 and C2. You did better than Szeth on that. But a player of your calibre would project that, regardless of whether you are Village or not. On the assumption that there are two Elims, from my perspective, you and Szeth setting up a counterclaiming war to confuse the Village and split the wagons the next day would be interesting and Szeth certainly could afford to take a hit. But that feels like a level of paranoia too far. If one of you is Elim, then the other Elim from my perspective is highly likely to be Mage so I'm better off voting for Mage right now. But of course, Evil Kas would probably say that to try to split the vote and then hammer. So there's no straightforward way to resolve this. Why would Elim Szeth need to protect Mage though? Mage can take a hit. We've just seen that. ...Bah I've gotten baited into puzzle-solving instead of fixing my dashboards -.-

Hmm. Not wrong. But of course I can't 100% know Szeth is lying. But I shouldn't vote you because - I just realised the lynch target has to be one of <Szeth, Mage>. Because suppose Araris is Evil, and the teams are 2-2 right now. Suppose Araris is also a Thug. (I sure as hell know I'm one so if he's not one, he's the only other player in the game who isn't one. I think it's better to assume Araris is a Thug because that's the more conservative assumption where error margins are concerned.) We shoot and win the cointoss and we go into the Night still 2-2, but Araris is down a life. The Elim teams shoot the other Villager who isn't me since I still have two lives. 2-1, we lose. Szeth and Mage have both survived one kill each so I know the Elim team has at least one Thug-role. A mislynch here will cost the Village, but even a correct lynch on Araris (supposing) brings us to a Night that is a sure lose so that's not promising. Anything that's not an Elim death today means that the Village loses, I think. I'm not sure we win even if we lynch right tbh. Suppose we do - in this scenario, Araris kills the other one-life Villager. Araris and I go to the day on two lives each and the lynch becomes a cointoss. If Araris wins, I die at that Night. Game over. But suppose I win the cointoss. We have to win a second cointoss. Again. If Araris wins, I die. Game over. Note: Whoever is reading this, if you don't think I'm Village, that's fine. This situation still applies to you because to lynch, you must kill an Elim. I have consistently claimed from very early on to be a Thug and I've claimed the extra kill on Tani. I think there's prima facie evidence I do have Thug-like abilities consistent with what everyone else has reported. The only two confirmed lynch targets are Szeth and Mage. Szeth, if you think that the Elim team is Araris and me, then you're also committed to thinking that Araris is lying about being a Thug, because a failed lynch will lead to you dying in the Night. And that's disregarding the fact the lynch is a 50-50 cointoss and this can still be lost anyway. Sigh. Araris, Mage. For now. I'll finalise it later when I have the bandwidth to think things through.

Bah. No. Let me get this out of my head because I'd like answers before deciding and if I don't ask now, I'm going to have to deal with the possibility of not getting answers if/when I return on Sunday afternoon. Unless my brain is scrambling up the timezones again. Ech. Szeth not being familiar with the night kill rules doesn't seem right to me. People don't usually tend to be confused about rules governing their own abilities, especially when they're fairly straightforward (kills) rather than stuff like redirects. I'm also not really sure how lying about that prompts further information since this was the thread rather than the PM. Araris was pretty set on Danex yesterday, and not for going after Mage. Szeth on the other hand voted on Mage. But I think this was after people indicated they weren't going to move. IDK. I remember Szeth being second voter on Mage yesterday pretty early on as well so IRDK. This puts me in the unfortunate position of having to decide between two competing counterclaims to have put in a kill on Mage. Unfortunate since reads from posts are not my strength. At least one of <Araris, Szeth> is lying. It's possible, I think, that both Araris and Szeth are Elims and blaming each other even though one of them put in a kill on Mage. Great news: I don't know what to think >> It does mean I am better off voting within the <Araris, Szeth> pool because at least one of them must be Evil, but it's not clear if Mage is even though I think he is. And Szeth, I could ask you the same question - why should I trust you? It's lylo and I'm basically just going to vote with whichever of the two of you seems less sketch to me. Araris, if you think Szeth and Mage are Elims together, why are you voting on Szeth rather than Mage? I still can't really reconcile Araris's vote on Sart with Araris being Evil. I could see it being a matter of no real good alternatives to move to without drawing suspicion, maybe. But there's still the problem of Mage having been proven to have an extra life. Why wouldn't the Elims just shift the train to Mage? Better to have an extra life gone than to be one man down. Yet Szeth's voting patterns are not as good but don't really explain why Sart died. Szeth had a vote on Archer, and the last teammate could easily stack to save Sart. Before I forget: Araris. I'm open to changing this before the cycle ends but I flipped a coin and the coin said Araris so I'm voting on Araris for now.

I've done maybe half the midterm except for the dashboards which is going to be a nightmare and I come back to this Stormfather-forsaken mess, which should be punishment in and of itself. @Ookla the Confused, are you counterclaiming a kill on Mage, or not? @Ookla the Porched, why should I trust you? @Mage, who did you attack? And if you attacked no one, why not? I think it's clear I'm very wrong about my two top trusts. I think there's also a possibility both of you are trying to get me and Mage to split the vote and hammer. But I think that's a danger whichever one of you I side with. God. If there's one thing my tired brain does not have the energy or bandwidth to sort through. Elims, could you not have taken a shot at me. Could you not have spared me from this suffering :| I'm heading off to go work on the dashboards and submit the midterm and then come back to gaze on the situation with despair and sig. Sorry for shooting you Tani, RNGesus failed me. Wormmon more or less captures my feelings about the situation right now.

Alright. I'm going to have to be AWOL until at least Sunday afternoon as I was a moron and misread when my second 30% midterm is due. I thought it was due Tuesday noon, but it turns out it's due Sunday noon so I guess I'm going to be pulling all-nighters. I doubt it's going to make any difference as we're probably at lylo but if we somehow survive, I can't prove it but I'm starting to theorise a <Sart, Araris, Mage> team. Someone please yell at me if I'm on the thread instead of finishing the midterm and submitting it. Also they killed my boy ;-; I'm still not okay Look at this poor sweet lad he never hurt anyone in his life D:

Anyone who wants to shoot me feel free. If that's what it takes to get people looking at the correct pool of suspects when I flip, I'm all for it. [Edit: 'Course, you'll have to do it more than once.] Moreover, I just watched an episode in which Wormmon died and I'm emotionally destroyed and will be checking out of the game for tonight, so I'm not really going to be helpful. They killed my boy and I'm not okay ;-;

Didn't you say your secondary power is not a kill? So how can you forget if you shouldn't have known anyway?

Here's the problem. Archer claimed a kill. I had one. Tani claims one. Illwei seems to have used one. You are claiming a kill as well. Szeth claims not to have a kill. I don't recall Mage or Araris making a claim. Sart claimed one but we have no idea about what's going on with Sart. Minimally, this commits us to five out of nine players having kills, assuming you and Tani are telling the truth. I certainly am insofar as that there is no counterclaim for the Tani kill/attack. The more I think about it, the more I don't buy that we have at least five kills floating around and the Elims have no extra lives or protections at all. The GM has to balance for potentially swingy situations. Suppose we all got trigger-happy N1. If all the Elims were like Sart, with only one life, we could have ended up with an Elim team wipe or near-extinction D1. This is exacerbated by the presence of protective Village Thug lives (everyone's claimed one, though to be fair, the Elims would do so too, as we saw Sart lied.) If Szeth, Mage, and Araris actually do have kills, this makes the situation even worse and practically demands at least one Elim Thug for the purposes of balancing. I don't really buy that idea. It doesn't work. I am a bit more willing to buy that only Villagers have kills but at the same time, we can't really prove a particular kill was the vig kill and not the Elim kill. And even that assumption is a bit of a stretch IMO, as much as I toy with it since it could potentially help us clear others. We haven't seen signs of vote manip so far but I do worry we're poised for a hammer. But I'm paranoid I guess. It's an interesting offer. If we're 3-2 and everyone else is a Thug, and you're Evil, and you really have that spare kill, then letting you use that kill tonight loses us the game, because we have Tani who is on one life (and unlikely to be Evil), the Elim kill, and your kill. Unless we lynch one of the Elims today (whether by knocking off a spare life or otherwise), we go into the Night with two Villagers on one life each. Easy targets for a kill to go through. (Again, unless someone has a protect. Which, you know, if you've been saving it, maybe consider whipping it out...) Of course, if you're Village, then it's really important we don't lynch you today. But we're kind of nearing the end of the line where it comes to having space to FAFO. But this means that for me in evaluating this, I have to go back to my priors. As my priors stand, it's at least one (if not both) of <you, Mage>. I could re-evaluate them, but re-evaluating them leads me into even more confusion because I have to postulate weird stuff like Araris being on a busing spree and not being able to swap off Sart because the only other real options for him were Mage and himself and he couldn't very well stack on Szeth or Archer after what he said about them. I'd like to hear everyone else's thoughts on this offer, especially because I've spent most of today questioning my reads again and again even though I'm trying not to go back and retread old circles of thought. @Ookla the Pianist Are protects and Thug lives written up the same way? I will not take your response as confirmation protects exist in this game.

Thank u for helping to keep the thread alive Mr GM Sir. Have a Wormmon for your hard work.

@Ookla the Pianist, what's your view on this issue?

We have to let the GM have some fun. He hasn't even had to deal with any last minute vote shenanigans or players changing orders nearly five times in the last two minutes of the cycle! (I remember you, Bridgeboy >>) Are we really allowing him to have the true fun of GMing if we don't at least let him troll?

Is this the first time you've had to deliver a clarification on the rules this game. Should we make your life harder

...No, you're right, my brain isn't working. Lynch right or lose, thanks Danex.

Huh. Good question - I'd like to know the answer. I've just been assuming they're the same as I can't see much reason a GM would differentiate them but who knows. @Ookla the Pianist - What happens if the last Villager standing has a one-shot vig kill, it's night, and there's one Elim remaining? Assume for the same of this case that both of them are down to one life. Lylo is a shortform of lynch and lose - or rather, mislynch and lose. I've seen exe and lose or rather, misexe and lose here as well. So exlo. ...Is this where I make a kylo ren joke. Hello, lylo Hello, lylo

I know you are. But from the perspective of activity profiling, you're essentially in the same bracket of low activity. The fact you are lurking and haven't intervened despite having the capability to save Sart is what has led to me removing you from the Help I'm Going In Circles pool. Then again, I don't know. Maybe Sart was bused. Maybe Araris decided to take the gamble with the coinflip. Maybe that's where all my reasoning is going wrong because thus far, my key assumption is that the Elims would intervene if given the opportunity. But is this the correct assumption? I'm thinking again about the numbers and actually, if we're postulating a 3-man Elim team, then this is almost lylo. But I don't know if they'd willingly stomach the pain of losing Sart because this gives them a rockier path to victory, in my view. So I don't think I'm willing to revise that basic assumption just yet. Look. We're 4-2 now, on the presumption this is a 3-man Elim team. We could be 5-1 but we have to play to the presumption that we are in the worst scenario, so suppose we're 4-2. Right now, we're set to lynch Danex. Danex should die, minus any weird Feruchemical vote-storing powers like that game where Gleeman stole Wilson's body. If Danex is Elim, we go to the Night on 4-1, which sucks for the Elim team, but unless Tani is Evil (sorry ;___; ), there's a guaranteed kill for the Elim team. Shoot Tani, and we go into the day 3-1. Wargaming that one is more difficult - if Danex is Elim, suppose for the sake of argument the other Elim has no extra life. Or soddit, let's branch it. A. No Extra Life In the worst case, the lynch keeps us at 3-1 but someone else loses a life. The Elims kill that person at night to bring us to 2-1. That's lylo then, barring assumptions about extra Village kills. B. An Extra Life More room for error than in the No Extra Life case, basically. If Danex is Village, we go to the Night on 3-2. Unless Tani is Evil or one of you has a Lurch in your pocket, or unless one of the Elims lacks an extra life and Tani shoots well, it's game over - Tani is a guaranteed kill because she is down a life (SORRY ;___; ) It's not a guaranteed lylo but the potential to lose the game N3 if we play this Day badly is real. None of this factors in additional Village kills flying around. But yeah, I'm starting to think again about the one-shot kills because in a game where we assume everyone is a Thug, granting Elims secondary kills no matter how limited more or less gives them a free guaranteed kill, which somewhat takes away the point of the Thugs. Ultimately I can't work out how the balance would go but I think if Tani does have a one-shot, slight Village credence there as well. ...And I should be studying and not trying to break my head on why I can't make sense of which scenario we're most likely in and who my likely Elim team guess is. Welp.

That's what baffles me. Let's look again at the possibilities and pathwalk: A. Sart and Mage are both Evil. There is no other teammate. IMO, in this scenario, the reason why there is no self-pres is a combination of inactivity and apathy. Both are Elim so they would not have gotten a better result by self-presing. This scenario requires that Mage also be a Feruchemist without an extra life. Otherwise, if Mage does have an extra life, then Sart (and Mage) are absurdly inactive. Which is not impossible but strikes me as an unlikely extent of inactivity. tldr; Elim team: <Sart, Mage> B. Sart is Evil, Mage is Village. Sart has one teammate. Why didn't Sart and Mage self-pres? Likely suggests team inactivity, and inactivity on Mage's part. If Sart has one teammate, the teammate either has to be inactive - pointing to <Tani, Danex>. I think it's more likely to be Danex in this scenario because Tani was on and withdrew her vote from Danex. She could have influenced the cycle by voting for Mage, or by padding out a side-train. She chose not to. It might be the case Tani has a decent risk appetite, I suppose, and she was fine with a 50% chance of death for Sart, but eh. Padding a side-train wouldn't have put her decently at risk, and she could have voted for you or Archer. The other option is that it's me - I voted alongside Archer on the Mage train. This explains the lack of Elim activity because it was already there. Unfortunately, I'm not accepting this as an answer but I'm formally listing it anyway so if I get two-shoted, one of you will hopefully look at the possibilities again I don't know if Szeth was on near the end of cycle, enough to swing the outcome. But either way, Szeth was not inactive, and Szeth could have swapped off Araris, so that doesn't really gel either. tldr; Elim team: <Sart> + <Tani/Danex> / <Kas> C. Sart and Mage are both Evil. There is another teammate. I think in this scenario, it makes no sense for me to be Evil. I could easily have pulled off Mage rather than causing a tie between Elims. I could, at the same time, have reasonably stacked back onto Araris or onto Archer to reduce Sart's chances of death. This is a better outcome for the Elim team. Sart and Mage not self-presing makes a bit less sense in this scenario, and I think this is what Araris means. What would it take for Sart and Mage to both be Evil with another teammate? Mage not self-presing becomes weird because there was at least one viable Villager train: Archer. (Likely Araris too.) It requires some Elim apathy in Sart's case, and makes it likely Mage doesn't have an extra life. If Mage did, it would be reasonable to divert the train to hit Mage instead, because the lack of a flip is a better result for Elims than an actual Elim flip. Sart and Mage being Evil likely entails Mage doesn't have an extra life. It requires all three members of the Elim team be inactive or borderline inactive. In this scenario, this once again points us to <Tani, Danex.> And again, in my view, it gives us a preference for Danex, because Tani did not intervene. Something odd about this scenario: we're looking at a three man Elim-team plus a Thug (Danex survived a kill), which is a bit strong, I think, even in a game with multiple Thug Villagers. It's a nine-player game after all. tldr; Elim team: <Sart> + <Mage> + <Tani/Danex> D. Sart is Evil, Mage is Village. There are two other teammates. Sart's lack of self-pres in this scenario appears to be inactivity. Same for Mage's lack of self-pres. Who are the potential teammates? Well, our fundamental pool has to be: <Tani, Danex, Szeth, Kas>. Tani makes the least sense. She could have intervened, and ex hypothesi, none of the other trains involved a teammate (Archer, Araris.) So let's exclude Tani from our pool. Szeth I think also makes less sense. Unless Szeth was not on at the end of the cycle ( @Ookla of Anarchy and Chaos, @Ookla the Porched, @Ookla the Confused, @Mage, @ookla the quantificational - can any of you confirm this?) - Szeth had tunnelled substantially on Archer so I don't think it would have raised too many eyebrows if Szeth just hopped from Araris back to Archer, creating a 2/3 shot at a Villager death. Szeth could have also broken the tie. This really only leaves us with one possible combination: <Kas, Danex>. tldr; Elim team: <Sart> + <Kas, Danex> I'm going to exclude four-player possibilities. Those are just patently absurd. Similarly, Araris makes little sense as a teammate in any of the four scenarios because he could have pulled his vote from Sart. From my perspective, D is a non-starter because it requires me to be Evil. I'm just going to ignore it. Given what I've laid out, I think the logical take in this case is to go for Danex. I'm moving from Mage then. The only live scenarios for me are A, B (Danex rather than me), and C. Danex is Evil in two of them, and when Danex isn't, Mage is. In the two Elim scenario, Mage might very well have an extra life. So I'd prefer to go for Danex. The main escape hatch I can see pertains to Szeth (possible, hence my request for information), or Tani being an extreme busser but that doesn't really make sense I don't think. Edited to add: What's everyone's current thoughts on Elim team composition? For instance, a three man team with two Thugs (functionally.) Too strong or plausible? I think this might help us rule out C or D depending. Edited to add 2: No wait hang on a tick. How many players do we know of who have one-shot kills? There's me, there's Illwei (presumably), there's Tani, there's Archer. That's at least nearly 50% the player-base with kills. Even with Thug-life, a two person Elim team just seems a bit on the weak side. This commits me to C, but then there's Mage's willingness to get Danex killed. ...I'm going to scream because this drek makes no frithing sense why. Bah. I'm sticking with my original reasoning and Danex. We can re-evaluate after that. Edited to add 3: I guess I'm not gonna let this go because as I've been complaining to Mat and Wyrm, the only reasonable orthodox 'follows doctrine' Elim team I can work out has me on it which is a trippy experience when you start questioning your own alignment... Me right now: H'okay. Let's try again. Suppose that the number of one-shot kills entails at least one Thug, and/or a three man team. Probably Village: Araris Szeth Araris was one of the two Sart voters, and had pushed on Sart D1 as well. Szeth tunnelled on Archer, and Araris and Szeth both seemed very engaged in trying to work that out D1. Araris generally has been proactive, which is sometimes not what I see from him as an Elim, though it could very well be due to the low activity level of this game. Szeth could have saved Sart or at least diluted the vote by voting for Archer. Possible defeaters: Araris has a busing rep. I feel as though Araris could have been okay with the risk, having felt there was no good way to withdraw his vote. Araris has been okay with ties before. This is a bit odd because he created the tie, but he's also known to have a decent risk appetite as an Elim. Szeth was looking for a simple place to park his vote. And Szeth didn't have the time to log back on to save Sart. Or Szeth is a busser. Likely Village: Tani Could intervene to save Sart, but didn't. Possible defeaters: Tani could be a busser. Or she might not have noticed the vote count. But trading a member is always a rough deal for the Elims, and it feels like both Tani and Szeth could have saved Sart without incurring too much suspicion. Help I'm Going In Circles: Mage Danex Danex's sus vote, and also, process of elimination. Possible defeaters: Mage is gung-ho on Danex. But Mage could be busing, and I think we don't know enough about Team Feruchemist's abilities to know if this is a power sacrifice, or just because Danex is so inactive that Danex is a better choice. I'm left with two choices. Go Danex, which is reasonable, I think, but then again, I'm always wary when one of my pool goes for the other, especially in a blackout game, because if it'd tactically hurt the Elims more to lose a different player, I'd rather do that. Or I can go Mage, but that's at the expense of passing up a potential guaranteed lynch. Let's look at numbers. We're currently 4-2. I have an extra life. So does Szeth. The Feruchemists win when they outnumber us, which means that - yeah, okay, I'm staying on Danex. We can cross the later bridges when we get to them, but if Danex is Elim, we have a guaranteed lynch and that kicks the Feruchemist wincon further away from them, which I am absolutely down for. At this point I'm doubting all my reads because I don't know if <Mage, Danex, Sart> makes sense as a team but it's the best I can do, so given my priors, going for Danex is the most sensible move. One problem at a time.

Eh. I would normally be more concerned about this for Contribution Crusade reasons, but given this game has primarily been inactive, I'll grant that. Why so?