Kasimir

Figures. I expect he wouldn't have left home without it.

It's always for now isn't it. It's reading you as 'ride or die Village bro' everytime we PM or thread solve together and then locking it in that kills me and damns the Village, in the end :eyes:

Yeah, that and Aman breaking a stable tie by parking a vote on Mat that never left on D1 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'm doing some of the analysis now. I feel that's something E!me can't really emulate which is the insane amount of paranoia that fog-of-war generates. But also remember that I'm still dealing with COVID and the meds and overall experience is great Ok. This one, disclaimer, again pushes me to V!read her a bit. The counterargument is she made the claim way too late for it to matter, but she claimed V!Thief which is what Aman also claimed. Unlike Aman, she claimed not to have found an item. While it's theoretically possible to have duplicate roles, it does undermine the initial claim plausibility, because with multiple roles, especially an item role like Thief, it's pretty plausible to have them on both sides of the game. But Aman's entire position or tacit position was a bargaining one, based on the utility of his role...of which...we now know there's another. I think that cuts against what he was trying to do. Edited to add: I think something I do not have a good answer to though is still why no one thought to fakeclaim SE. This was the major out, IMO. The fact no one did this seems to suggest to me that Aman's teammates had to be: (i) offline, (ii) uncomfortable with doing so, (iii) unable to do so - at least one of the three. That's the part where I kinda think it's not Mat because everything aligns so nearly for him to do so. But that's also where I think it's significant Archer was missing for a good chunk of the cycle. Though I'm not fully sure I believe E!Archer. Gotta re-read.

Lack of evidence doesn't mean you actually wouldn't, smh. Y'all soulless, my true buddies are apparently JNV and Devo >:( I actually disagree: I feel like Sart definitively dismissed the other possibilities and focused on a roleblock, and Araris dismissed anything that wasn't a withheld kill or a roleblock. Those two are the ones I have in mind when I ask if the Elims really want to narrow the field. But maybe I'm talking to the wrong person here because I think that pinged Mat and Devo more about Sart, but it's something I'm thinking of aloud anyway You know, you can just spell it out. "Kas if you want players to stop being chaotic in the non-social way, just suspect them and lynch them for it." :eyes: I am entirely okay with this. I think the last point does matter though because that claim is a very odd claim to make coming on the tail of Aman's own. Fair. I liked his Aman vote post, it felt very genuine, but I also still want to hear his thought process. Okay, fair. Yeah sadly my Devo reads have been All Over. But we get there in the end, I guess?

It's not a possibility I'm willing to explore at this stage, but I'm curious why TJ wants to revise Devo on re-reading Aman's ISO. Edited to add: @|TJ| I dunno if this is more helpful but maybe this is what I'm trying to get at: Whenever we work out what happened with vote manip in a Tyrian ruleset, we usually don't try to multiply entities unnecessarily. So we don't really try to postulate as many small cancelling-out interactions as possible. There are...lots of ways to build in additional Soothes and Riots, sometimes unnecessarily complicated, by having them cancel out. But we try to stay as simple as possible. All I'm pointing out is that if you're trying to stay simple and you see no kill and Kas insane, I agree with you Broken Survivors is the natural thought. But I'm not sure a Elim would immediately be thinking of a protect, because protects in this game are retaliatory, meaning there are missing deaths or insanity reports you have to account for as well. You could argue it's a matter of terminology and maybe it is, but I kind of expect the retaliatory kill element to be more naturally in mind for someone who just came off the Night cycle and working out kill targets. Not sure Mat shakes that off so easily. The very very tldr; is this is me trying to articulate what stuck out about it to me, and that's that I agree with you. Elan had to actually explain that Lurches killed in this game to me when I was puzzling out why I had gone insane, which is why I feel like that's the more natural place for the mind to go if you're not actually Evil.

This one I'll answer first: it's because Mat specifically says protected and protects in this game entail a secondary kill, or insanity result. I think the secondary kill is foremost on the mind of an Elim because that's the thing they want to avoid and it's been foremost on my mind because I woke up one morning to Elan cackling and telling me I was now insane and trying to work out how that happened >> I don't feel that's naturally something a Villager necessarily immediately thinks about. Standard Lurchers don't retaliate. I liked Ash catching Aman's Elim slip when Aman suddenly said Devo was probably WF at the end. But he didn't do anything about it. And I still feel that Ash's early vote on Alv just as easily fits the perspective of an Elim looking for a roleblocker who might be able to hit Aman putting in the NK. The story of Alv's accuracy as the Tehlin in MR29 is legendary. Pretty much a whole bunch of players would C1 me: you, Araris, Illwei, Archer, Mat (!!!), Steel, TKN, Ash... And sadly, apparently, Aman </3 (j/k I've C1ed him too, fair's fair.) At this point, we'd be better off listing the players who wouldn't C1 me: <Alv, Devo, JNV.> Wow y'all monsters. I'm with them. Not only does Ash pick someone not on the first list, but he picks the guy with the roleblocker and vig rep? That's kind of weird to me. But part of me is also trying to work out how that Elim team must be trying to respond. Clearly no one wanted to defend Aman, but the fact that I mentioned that survivors of attacks aren't told they survived meant there was a whole world of possibility open, and in the 'was attacked and survived world', Aman gets away scot-free. Does Ash's vote fit with that? I genuinely DK man. I think a point in Ash's favour is he brings up the roleblock possibility, which Elims prefer off the table IMO: Though I think this opens a question: You and Devo both take the line of thought the Elims would want to broach the roleblocker issue. But would they really, when opening it is exactly what leads to Aman? As long as Devo didn't claim, as long as the thought that there was a SE keeping quiet for Reasons, or shocker, Withheld Kill Madness, technically they're getting by fine. The whole situation began precisely because the roleblocker issue was not set in stone. I pointed out it's the most parsimonious option. But parsimony does not always make a theory true. Sometimes actions dominoes do happen. That's just life. You could argue it's their TMI giving it away, but keep in mind that at that point I was doing the work for arguing maybe it was a protect. Is it in their interests to argue against a Villager not wanting to pursue the block angle too aggressively? I'm trying to find a nice way to put this and I can't so mods just gonna have to tell me to fix it when I wake up from meds. (Probably mods: "So you shouldn't have said it, goddamnit Kas.") But my line of thought was less about coaching and more: "If you keep doing reckless things off the top of your head that make your teammates unhappy, your teammates are going to tell you in increasingly strong language to stop being such a chaotic" and at some point, they call for the IM, or the GM proactively alerts the IM. And I think that: A. randomly swanning in and self-voting, B. crossbow roll-call, and C. actually making the same claim as teammate (though granted this is super late and functionally inert) are increasingly disruptive and destructive for a player who randed Elim. (To be clear, we're looking at the Elim hypothetical here.) I don't think this is a point about coaching - this is a point about not having to log in to a doc to see what next thing has happened because your teammate got bored. Why TKN? You think E!Devo bussed E!Aman here? Edited to add: @|TJ| Odd question, but can you see a DeTess-Aman team at all, or is it incoherent? Had an odd thought off certain interactions but don't want to influence you here.

Why so? Why? I will say it's an awkward retraction given I liked that late Ash post, but I've also found something I don't really feel positive about. Edited to add: @Matrim's Dice - Your very first reaction on D2 was to assume I'd been attacked and to rule it out as a WGG. Why? (I'm asking about your thought process at that point.) It's a very odd assumption to make and I'm trying to parse it: If I had been protected, the Elim who attacked me should've been dead or driven insane unless they had a confluence of Iron Will and protection. On the one hand, it's uncomfortably close in that Aman likely had protection and had Iron Will, so would have been immune. But it seems a pretty reflexive question and so I like it, given we now know what had happened. Edited to add 2: Actually, same. I'm willing to believe V!Mat at this point. I think E!Mat should've taken the SE out. It's low cost, pretty much there, and would never have exposed Aman until way later if Mat died but all Elim life is a ticking timebomb anyway, and he need never prove anything. Edited to add 3: Sorry, let me clarify. I specifically state Mat because he's known to have SB anyway, having already lost it, which - as I somehow keep bloody forgetting >> - is half the SE equation. Mat's also known for ah, very creative claims, like Gnordainggin, which is pronounced "Vin", and also "Just an ordinary Son of Feanor." The chancy nature of the RB and the way these things were set up functionally means that if Mat had just made the claim that he was the SE who protected me the previous night, no one would have batted an eye at the roleblock claim (and as Devo notes, she wouldn't have made it anyway.) And Mat would functionally never be asked to protect again, having already burned it on me. It's a really great fakeclaim for his position. IDK I'd say this for every player, but at least feel he has the sort of profile where I could see him do something like that. Also Aman did park on his train quite a bit. To be sure, he could have shifted off, as Devo brought Mat into contention very late, but again, IDK, do you really do that do your SB? ^^^ I'm not fully sure of this line of thought, so I'd definitely like to hear thoughts. But this seems like something well within the respective ranges of E!Aman and E!Mat.

K. Gonna do my best to get what analysis I can out, just in case. Running into some hard stamina limits here. Was completely wiped after a single AoE round with Wyrm, that sort of thing. I don't know what I have the strength for, but let's take things one step at a time. Walking wounded here, wcyd >> High voting cycle. Filled my credences as highlights. Note I haven't really re-read the cycle yet, I haven't had the energy to but commit to doing so after a nap. Thoughts: Do not particularly believe Aman train was clean. Believe Aman was not lying about the Silver Dust, on the off-chance it did buy him a Turn, but also because it makes sense. There's no point in having an Iron Will Cultist make a kill unless he did also have it. That being said, there's the world in which that team has an E!Shade Expert. But I sort of doubt it for the moment - too bonkers. Demoting Sart at popular insistence - still do not believe Sart is Evil but notice that for all Sart agitated about finding a confirmed Elim if WF outed self, did not bother to vote for Aman. Of all people, @Sart should understand importance of Village control if Aman really had Silver Dust. Feels I actually have an improved read on Ash because Ash caught an Elim slip from Aman near the end. Gives me similar vibes to the MR he oneshot E!TKN and then Drake and I 2v1ed E!Archer but I don't understand why @Ashbringer didn't vote Aman. The last I can see, Archer was on-Shard somewhere around an hour and fifty minutes pre-Rollovet. Even if we handwave that, it matches with my hazy impressions of the EoD that he wasn't on after Devo's reveal and everything escalated. I don't feel it's really possible to read into this one way or another. @The Known Novel - Why say you were staying out of it then changed your mind? Mind walking me through your thought process? <TKN, Mat, Araris, TJ> are my effective set of suspects for Elims on the Aman train. Inb4 it's all of them tbh. (I think there's something else to consider: we either expect the Aman train to be full of Elims or not. If it isn't, we have to accept he likely didn't have a protective item or they chose to give it up - the former points towards them potentially having an E!SE. Likely answer will be one of degrees, but even so - this is the fundamental trade-off at stake.) This line from TJ makes me feel uncomfortable and I don't know why. Sorry I was gonna say more stuff here but may need to come back to it. Gonna be sick. Just posting for now so I don't have to accidentally lose this. Any chance you gonna before I die? Edited to add: @|TJ| - Bhai, your views on Ash?

Was Araris but I also made the same point earlier: I said, when disagreeing with Araris about protection being farfetched: Sart thing will wait for after sleep. But sus of you I think.

Removed by killing, I assume? So yeah, claim anything that's not a Crossbow then.

Ngl he gave me flashbacks to Araris's play in AG9. Ironically, Aman's own advice there helped me stay firm here. RIP, I feel you, take care! More generally, to everyone else: does anyone see any reason not to claim who got an item off Aman and what? From the looks of it, items cannot be claimed via kill so it's useful to map and know what to watch out for.

@Amanuensis Thank you for subscribing to Patamon Alarm Services! We are proud to keep our promises to free you from your suffering. Edited to add: Elan confirmed that items are not mentioned. I think it's reasonable to expect that Aman genuinely had Silver Dust due to the roleblock - as I hypothesised, using a Cultist with Iron Will and Silver Dust means no penalty from Wrath and no backlash from surviving it. This should mean that the Elims are now pushed to a less optimal DK. I am not going to significantly look at Aman's reads. I did so out of respect for a possible V!Aman world earlier, but I don't feel confident at trying to read E!Aman and will simply redo my reads by re-reading the thread. Edited to add 2: Sankyuu, Writer-sama~! I will use them well and stop flooding the thread ^^ @Elandera Actually btw am I still insane you never mentioned and I'm marginally worried it can't be fixed

Because you're forgetting that Alv saw me through my first Elim and SE game ever #EternalKohai Also believe that doesn't really exist Elim side because I'm better off playing support than strategist. What is this, Claimtoberfest? :sob:

Base Wrath of Shades is always at 5%. What's relevant here is Elan didn't include the counter D1. Not really sure FWIW, but also - why good read on Mat? It's essentially my teammates view again - you come back in, right after Alpha said you were leaving, and you self-vote when you could just be talked to by your team into placing a low-commitment vote on a side-train. She's new enough I don't think anyone would've seriously pressured her for it. That and the open crossbow ask. I feel like if I were E with her, at this point in the doc I'd be tearing out my hair and begging her to dial back on the chaos. But maybe it's a me thing ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I don't know why I keep asking this question honestly. My head knows the answer. But my heart doesn't want the answer. Thanks Digimon tri. I don't think it fundamentally matters. Like, yes, that could be what is happening. But at this point, we go from most likely to least likely, and it's less likely that the Elims withheld the kill, and if they did, my view is it says something specific about team comp. At least that's my view. It's not a common MO, as much as it's been floated here and there. And it takes a team to have a certain confidence in thread I think. I keep saying I'm going off to sleep and I keep trying to. I think I need stronger meds honestly. Gonna sleep through rollover at this rate.

Basically you're not wrong it could be someone else but it gotta be someone with Iron Will, then I went insane independently.

Elan has clarified the target of a roleblocked kill still goes insane. You can ask her, if you want to. @Elandera Edited to add: Actually, here, I'll cite it for you: I agree someone else could've been attacked, but that player would've had to have Iron Will because if not, we'd have two insane players.

Last question for the moment as my head is killing me and I need rest: @Amanuensis: Suppose you are exed today. I think that looks like what's happening now, and I think that's gonna go through. Who do you suggest the Village then go to next? My read is that you actually suspect Mat and Aloha more than you do Ash and TKN despite the tiers, though I could be mistaken.

Will look at the trains in a bit. Getting painkillers, w00ts. True. Forgot I expected his biggest threat vector if V!SE to be from the exe because that's the fastest way to not worry about his protect. Gonna blame the hour/big C. Overheating?

I take it you don't share Araris's contention that E!Aloha is less likely to be able to produce multiple suspicions? I will when my body stops trying to kill me. Guess that was them. Do you feel there's a specific/particular profile of team that would play this way? @Amanuensis - Same question for you. My read off the cuff would be that I'd expect potential kill denial shenanigans from Archer, DeTess, Illwei, Devo, you, Alv, maybe Ash. IDK if Mat is that unorthodox, and that's excluding reads. IDK about Alv - I remember working with Ghostbloods Alv enough I could see him considering the strat but I don't feel it's something he'd go for. Problem is that a lot of those players right now are Village reads, sans Archer, Alv, and Ash. Fair. I will say I don't recall her power wolfing as a niche but I remember I've thrown her in subsequent games (including LG91) by being willing to go pretty wysiwyg when reading her. I would have expected V!SE!Mat to have self-protected, I think. The only one he can trust is technically himself, especially on C1... This definitely did surprise me, yes. Does it influence your view of him that Mat hasn't actually claimed SE then? Because I feel like there's no real downside for E!Mat to just claim it. Edited to add: I'm conflicted but I'd add Araris to the list FWIW. I think Araris is a bit too bloodthirsty to withhold the kill but I think that the first rule of Araris is that he will switch up known aspects of how he plays. I struggle to see Araris willingly withholding the kill in a game with no compensatory mechanism and with Glowpaste, though.

In what sense, actually? Though possible to ask about your Illrao read? Recognise I am pretty much systematically asking about everyone at this juncture but you know my MO and how I work for analysis. At the end of the day, if you're Village, I do want to use this time wisely.

Agreed. We play to probability, not possibility. Order of inference here is clear I think. And if you did roleblock the kill, then, well, thanks for saving my life. Only hope that my contact can help me repay you.

I... I just don't... Honestly, I feel like my entire understanding of SE and E!Aman has flipped over, and my mind is irreparably shattered RIP. Yeah. I always want to V read him. But IDK the WiM thing is pretty crucial to me. But at the same time...Sigh. I don't disagree and I do expect them to have something else but I think E!Thief has a nice bag of tricks that could disrupt Village. But that's off the top of my head. Maybe I'm wrong, IDK. Yeah. That being said, this does imply that if we're committed to lynching Aman after all, everyone should be on the train by EoD. Don't want Silver Dust or just inventory passing into E hands. Oh, and my thoughts on keeping you alive - mostly that everyone keeps forgetting the Elder Sign Pendant exists, and if we can pass you one, that and a Shade Expert should do it? Don't think they can afford to keep wasting kills. Believe I'm in contact with a player who has one but need to reconfirm. This I do not recall. Hmm... Possibly via condemnation of DeTess's opening? Both of them felt it was too wishy-washy and said nothing. Edited to add: @Devotary of Spontaneity - Assume you have very low credences they withheld the kill? But no, still feel that possibility has to be examined last.

Hi. It me. Y'all stressed me, Orlok, and Striker out so much in QF59 </3 If you really are Evil (I know you cannot say this one way or another in thread at this juncture, and again I'm insane and this is a huge train but I won't pretend this wasn't my fault if you are Village but bracketing all of that) - I guess this is you paying me back for the number of times I willingly C1ed you? Archer. It's why I sussed him at that point - felt very performative. Just said outright he'd heavily sus those people. Think Araris's subsequent point about it being a lowcost way for Elims to mess with the votes makes sense though, and in that sense, can see why he's against it. Think this came up in LG83, but you died pretty fast there. It was a big question there because we didn't know if it was arson ( >:( ) or just mindgames so people were theorising. Actually that might've been in a PM with Drake, nvm. Can't remember clearly by this juncture. I don't disagree but I also feel that Elan would not put in an Elim team without giving them a way to manage Shade threat, given how unhappy Mat and Araris were last game, given they thought Araris, their Shade Expert, was fragile. And if there's a way to manage Shade threat, then I don't know that the numbers fundamentally matter. As JNV points out, shutting down potential Village crossbow users isn't bad for them either. Why are Fae and Ash where they are on your reads, btw? Fae feels like a major wildcard so I struggle to read them.

Yeah - essentially 0.95^17, @Araris Valerian or @Devotary of Spontaneity if there's a better way to crunch. It's the main reason I was adamant we needed the flip the roleblocked, yeah. It just feels - harder to do it when I know who got roleblocked. But again, does it functionally matter? For better or worse, I'm insane so my vote doesn't count. But yeah I cast it anyway. I will note I almost expect Thief to be E!aligned since that's one way of getting around worries of Wrath - giving them a source of Silver Dust. Since items are lost by kills, Elims otherwise may have a tendency to run out and as much as I asked Illwei about E!SE, I don't personally buy it because IMO E!SE is bonkers. So basically you think the best explanation is a Shade Expert protected me, but they didn't say anything? Am curious as to why you think not submitting the kill is unlikely - I actually would have felt that a team with, ironically, you on it might consider that strategy.

I sort of had a tendency to bang my head into the goalposts when defending as a kid. Oh, sorry, not that one? Edited to add: How so? @Amanuensis - As DeTess pointed out, assuming no Iron Will, the odds no one goes insane are 42%. No idea of relative prevalence of Iron Will but given I don't have it, I don't know if it's that weird I fell to the 5% ambient rate. Edited to add 2: This thread, or Devo @ me, in a single picture: You're right; I couldn't handle it Truly I have gone insane from it and this is a Lovecraftian game. Well: Fair. I struggle to read him without PMs I think. Maybe even with them, sometimes.