Seonid
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Alright, Macen. I just PMed almost every player left in the game (every one who hasn't been saying anything in recent cycles). Hopefully it brings some inactives back. Feligon and SilverDragon haven't been on the Shard in weeks. Bort, Venture, and Orlok have all been on today at some time. Shallan hasn't been on since last night, and Alvom hasn't been on in 4 days. Hopefully it helps. Next target, Paranoid King. Contribute!!! I summon thee!
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Alright. Here's our list of people. Seonid (me!) The Silver Dragon Bort Macen Shallan Gamma Orlok Paranoid King Venture Alvom Feligon Of these, Bort, Feligon, Venture, and SilverDragon haven't been here for ages. Macen, Orlok, and Shallan have barely been active, and Alvom hasn't talked much for several cycles. It's almost a monologue at this point. I don't care. 3 or 4 of these people are Eliminators. If we used Meta's square root method, we'd have 5 of them total with this size of cast. 6 if several were inexperienced. The two we know of so far were Hero and Ripple, a veteran and a newbie. My fear is that all 3 or 4 of them are active, which would lead them to outnumbering us in the lynch vote (if there are 4) unless inactives come back. If we lynch wrongly today, I think we've irreparably lost. I think Alvom is suspicious, and certainly worth lynching to find out. But I expected to have one more villager than we currently have during this lynch. We don't have the luxury of lynching to find out. At this point, we lynch correctly or die. So, I'd like to see the arguments for lynching Alvom enumerated clearly. "Just following through on earlier lynches" won't cut it for us. Not now. My vote for now is going on one of our almost-inactives, using the reasoning that it might jolt him into response. Macen, what do you have to add to the discussion?
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Gamma, that would be a sensible analysis except - there were 2 votes on Lopen that tied up the lynch on Alvom. Those were Caesarae (now dead, and a Villager), and yourself. So unless you are, in fact, the Eliminator who saved Alvom, then there weren't Eliminator shenanigans on that lynch. I need to reread the lynch vote order and stuff to be sure of that, of course.
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That was kind of weird....
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So, we have really two options here. It is certainly obvious that the Eliminators didn't care about the lynch this cycle. This upcoming cycle may well be our last viable lynch cycle barring inactives coming back (I'll PM Bort and ask him pretty please or something. Heck, I'll do that with all of them. Everyone else do it too.) Anyways. Two options. Either the Eliminators didn't even bother hopping on that bandwagon because they didn't care, or one or two jumped on to seal the deal. And I can't tell which. If Alvom's guilty tomorrow, we've bought ourselves a little bit of time. If not, well, we're losing already. I'm going to make a plea, because I strongly suspect I won't last tonight. Look at tomorrow's lynch. Watch to see if it is unopposed. If nobody comes up as an alternative, talk about the stupid thing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are going to lose this game because nobody is willing to say anything. Or maybe you've all lost interest, or maybe all of the active players left but me are Eliminators, but somebody has to say something or the village loses. So if nobody is brought up as an alternative, stop the lynch train tomorrow. Find a better target. If it's not opposed, chances are it's not an Eliminator. That's what we saw this past day. Hael was innocent, and nobody bothered to try to stop it. Except Gamma, and that was half-hearted. We will have 2 days of discussion. That's more than enough to ferret out an eliminator if you have the storming discussions. Now I'm just ranting. When I die, you'll know that I'm innocent. Kill Alvom tomorrow, but watch for tricks. I could be wrong on him. Watch out for Gamma. He hasn't even posted his analysis yet. That might be worth lynching him for. Or at least putting him on the block. Shallan is almost certainly good. I feel the same about Adamir. It might be worth looking at voting patterns for Adamir's attempted lynch. If I have time, I will, but I'm not likely to be on for the rest of the cycle. If I live past rollover, I'll talk then.
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Crap. Colors-cursed storming something or the other. My last realization came too late. Alvom next time, then. And gamma, your analysis tonight would be most appreciated. If I don't make it through the night, my biggest suspicions are alvom, followed by gamma if alvom's innocent
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I'm ok with lynching Alvom too, but haelbarde was my top suspicion. Alvom was my next suggestion. Honestly though, I'm a little worried. The fact that no one has said anything is suspicious. I'd expect the eliminators to have tried to vote for someone else if hael was guilty. Too late at this point, though.
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Actually, we would lose all but 1 PMs. Cultivation's investiture power is to make one PM, not unlimited. When we lose a Shard, we lose half of the role that came with it. EDIT: Ninja'ed by the Brightness Ascendant
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I'd rather you vote wrongly than not at all. Even wrong votes get discussion started again. With an extended cycle, we even have enough time for a decent discussion. But that only works if people talk!
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Fair enough, Ren. I was mostly joking with my whole "request extensions until I get my analysis" shtick, but it's good to know that we're already extended. I wish more people would talk. Even if I haven't been a shining example in that regard.
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Ah. Gotcha. Wait...when you say Alvorn, do you mean Alvom? Because I thought you meant Alvron, who was killed a few cycles back. If that's the case, then I actually think I agree with your suspicions, although I still think there are better targets than him (like Haelbarde). But if we catch one Eliminator, we have a little more breathing space.
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Alright, here's my analysis of all of the remaining players: Adamir - Has acted and voted suspiciously in earlier cycles, but the incident with the shardplate seems reasonable for a villager. Warning about the Shardplate to try to avoid a wasted lynch seems good to me - wasting a lynch would be excellent for the Eliminator faction. Could still be a ploy to divert suspicion, though. Undecided, leaning towards Team Good Alvom - No idea here, honestly. His interactions don't give me a consistent read one way or the other. I need to go back and look again. Until then, I'm willing to lynch him if nobody else votes, but I think there are more likely suspects. Paranoid King - Sent me a PM several cycles back, with some of his suspicions about both Team good and team evil. He had pegged Clanky, Araris, Shallan, and myself as good, and thought that Alvron, Adamir, Haelbarde, and Venture Mistborn were evil. On the good list, he's been right at least 75% of the time, and I'm leaning towards 100%, while at least one of his Evil projections was wrong. I'm leaning toward Adamir being wrong, too. Verdict - undecided, leaning towards Team Good. (His accuracy on good and lack thereof on evil could be explained by being an Eliminator and trying to throw me off, but I find it less likely. TheMightyLopen - It's unlikely, but possible (knowing Ren's reputation) that there are 3 village couriers. However, his actions seem pure villager. Verdict: Undecided but leaning Villager. If he is good, it is exceptionally likely that there is a 4th courier, and that they are evil. Shallan - Based on some of Hero's comments, I think she's probably good. Gamma - not active enough to get a read on. I have lingering suspicions, due to his performance in the last quick fix, but nothing definite. Undecided, leaning towards Eliminator, but could easily not be. I want your analysis, though, and I want it this cycle. I will request an extension until I get it. Haelbarde - No way to read - hasn't talked enough. PK suspects him. I think I do too. The interaction with Hero could easily have been a setup, trying to play off our sympathies as a poor soul who had been taken in by the dissembling conspirator. Verdict: Undecided, leaning towards team Evil. Macen - Hasn't done a whole lot. His suspicion of Araris was entirely due to now-deceased players expressing their concerns. Almost inactive. Honestly, leaning towards team Evil, but still undecided. Orlok - inactive, no read Venture - inactive, no read Feligon - inactive, no read Silver Dragon - inactive, no read Bort - inactive, almost certain WRT team good. While a WGG is possible, if he is an eliminator, we don't need to worry about him right now because of inactivity. Focus on active eliminators, then scrub the inactive ones. EDIT: I think my vote today is going to Haelbarde Also, realized I hadn't said anything about Alvom
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You know, Alvron, your arguments are good. Excellent, even. But you fail to deal with one important, even vital piece of information. That is - Wilson just purportedly leaked the identity of Odium in the thread. She claims to have invested in him, and thereby confirmed that he is a shard. I find it highly unlikely that she would run such an obvious lie, one capable of being checked by any of the shards, including you. I also find it highly unlikely that she would willingly out Odium, the eliminators most powerful asset, in such a public manner. That way lies folly.
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Welp. Araris was going to be my top suspicion this cycle. I went back over the beginning cycles of the game, and looked at voting patterns, but apparently I was dead wrong. I'm going to assume no inactive eliminators, which leaves us at 4-6 active players. Hopefully Bort comes back. And some of our other inactives (of which I freely recognize that I have been one for far too much of this game)
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Hmm. I'd like to hear Alvron's response to Wilson's charges. That said, I find then persuasive, and will vote accordingly unless Alvron has equally persuasive arguments.
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Thanks again, Joe. I should read more closely...
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Once, I could buy. Even if it meant giving up a Lifeless from Team Odium. But twice? That's just an irresponsible waste of kills on their part. My instinct says that they are really trying to get rid of her. Probably to shut down the village's communication/trust group (not a coalitionTM).* Also, Joe, the write up makes it sound like Mail died, but the summary says he lived. Mind clarifying? *See Autumn Glass (not an Epic) in the Oregon RP
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Yeah, I'm in that unenviable situation of having just started school and being in two SE games. I honestly don't have any suspicions right now - I've been barely keeping up on the thread, and haven't been able to go back and analyze at all. If Adamir was suspicious enough to lynch last cycle, then I can't see why not to do so this one. On the other hand, I'm getting the feel of innocence out of him. Now, my gut could be a Darkfriend, but he seems good. I'd like to hear more from Gamma. He's normally much more active than this, and normally is much better at doing analyses. In fact, he night be the best player we've got left. If like to hear something substantive out of him.
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To be honest, Mail, I am unsure of the wisdom of forcing all discussion into the main thread/world PMs. I notice that you didn't care about that in the AG, but rather were quite active in PMs with Wilson and Claincy. In every game with readily available PMs, it's generally assumed that the PMs are an advantage to the village and a priority target for the Eliminators. So tell me. Why is this game different? Because last time this was run, the Shards abused their power, forming a game-ending and fun-ruining coalition? If that's your reasoning, it's fallacious, as this current iteration has removed the massive safe role list that created that situation. Is it because you made a promise to Winter based on that fallacious reasoning? Just because the reasoning comes from someone else doesn't make it useful. That goal sounds an awful lot like one that benefits the Eliminators much more than the Village. Now, I am not saying that more shouldn't be said in-thread. It should. We've been quiet, and that's bad for the village. But shutting down PMs is not the ideal way to rectify the situation. If you really have the village's best interests at heart, then find a solution that actually gives the village a net benefit.
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So, is that a green Poisoner, or a red Poisoner? Until it's clarified by Word of GM, I'll assume green, and that we lynched a villager. A poor choice, honestly, but none better presented themself.
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Or olksferb owherb ancerb ollowferb atternsperb
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Why are you sure Clanky is good? Other than that, I'm rather inclined to believe Bort as good. A WGG at this point makes little sense to me. They are already hiding exceptionally well, all of the players who are top analysers are dead, and the village is largely inactive. Why run a gambit when quiet play will win you the game anyways? So I feel Bort can be trusted.
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So, I recognize that this is very close to the end of the cycle, but in going to pull my vote off of Paranoid King. I'm nowhere near confident enough off guilt or even suspicious behavior top lynch him, especially when we've list 2 shards already.
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That was a fortunate turn of events. Glad you're still with us, Bort. The secret vote on myself is rather interesting. If you have suspicions concerning me, care to voice them?
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Ooh, even more confirmation. All computers do their math in binary, or base 2. All the math still works in binary, so there shouldn't be a big deal. And no problem. Glad to help.
