What is Wit's strategy?

[+Oltux72 he/him]

I think it is time to discuss this on a high level. So let us begin with what we know for sure

• He seeks to form an alliance of Shards
• He aids those fighting against Odium on Roshar
• He seeks to keep Odium in the Rosharan system

It looks to me like his strategy is to use the greater power base of having multiple Shards working together as his main tool. Hence he will seek to enter an arms race that Odium cannot win. Time is working for Hoid and his coalition but against Odium. I think this is the core conclusion we need to draw. Now, if you disagree with this I am afraid the rest of this post is moot. I would love to hear your reasons, though.

What operational goals does he derive from this? Hoid needs to draw out the war on Roshar and he has one paramount operational goal:

1. Odium must be kept magically bound to the Rosharan system

Nothing else matters (derivating into Song territory) compared to that. I believe you can see that in the way he wrote the agreement about a duell of champions. Yes, Odium can send out armies. But that would work in Hoid's favor. The rest of the Cosmere could not ignore the threat, but the armies would be ordinary Singers and Regals fighting in an extremely unfamiliar environment with a primitive technological base. They would be defeated.

That determines Hoid's secondary goal. He wants war in the Cosmere. For some reason I am already hearing sounds of indignation from his fans. But think it through. You do not win with troops and generals who have never seen war or coutries not used to producing weapons. Hoid is deeply convinced that Odium will need to be defeated. He needs armes, no matter the cost.

And now it is getting ugly. What do you do if you really need to fight in such a way that you buy the bulk of your forces time? You select a sacrificial force to set up a delaying action. It seems to me that the current war on Roshar is exactly that in Hoid's eyes. He does not seek a victory of his coalition. He wants Odium to be occupied for as long as possible. The fate of the Rosharan peoples will be irrelevant, if it comes to that choice and Hoid is expecting that case to come up.
Tactically I think that was the reason he met with whom he believed to be Rayse. He wanted to enrage his enemy to cloud his strategic thinking.

[Master Silver]

Great topic. So a couple of things. Hoid had a chance to become a shard, but passed it up. Do we know which Shard? Hoid, even after losing some breaths (at least that is implied) is still very highly invested.

Spoiler

Mistborn Spoilers(SPOILER) Perhaps Vyn was more highly invested in her second to last fight (not against Ruin). So Slivers (think that is what they are called) are more highly invested than Hoid. But pretty sure Hoid, if he could kill, could take on the Lord Ruler. Hoid is of the fifth heightening (this is for Breath), he is a 1st gen Allomancer, and a Radiant. Besides that he was already immortal, and has some sort of native light weaving abilities. All that being said, he needs Shards actively fighting on his side to beat a shard. I am curious if a vessel like Taravangian consumed other God metals in sufficient quantities, could they help him fight the impulses of Odium, which in its purest form is divine wrath. Like large amounts of Endowment, Preservation and Honor. 

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by Master Silver

[+Oltux72 he/him]

8 hours ago, Master Silver said:

Great topic. So a couple of things. Hoid had a chance to become a shard, but passed it up. Do we know which Shard?

  Reveal hidden contents

Mistborn Spoilers(SPOILER) Perhaps Vyn was more highly invested in her second to last fight (not against Ruin). So Slivers (think that is what they are called) are more highly invested than Hoid. But pretty sure Hoid, if he could kill, could take on the Lord Ruler. Hoid is of the fifth heightening (this is for Breath), he is a 1st gen Allomancer, and a Radiant. Besides that he was already immortal, and has some sort of native light weaving abilities. All that being said, he needs Shards actively fighting on his side to beat a shard. I am curious if a vessel like Taravangian consumed other God metals in sufficient quantities, could they help him fight the impulses of Odium, which in its purest form is divine wrath. Like large amounts of Endowment, Preservation and Honor. 

AFAIK we do not know which Shard he would have gtten. However, the more important question to me seems to be why he declined.

And what this means for his chances to form an alliance.

[Aspiring Writer]

11 hours ago, Master Silver said:

Great topic. So a couple of things. Hoid had a chance to become a shard, but passed it up. Do we know which Shard? Hoid, even after losing some breaths (at least that is implied) is still very highly invested.

  Hide contents

Mistborn Spoilers(SPOILER) Perhaps Vyn was more highly invested in her second to last fight (not against Ruin). So Slivers (think that is what they are called) are more highly invested than Hoid. But pretty sure Hoid, if he could kill, could take on the Lord Ruler. Hoid is of the fifth heightening (this is for Breath), he is a 1st gen Allomancer, and a Radiant. Besides that he was already immortal, and has some sort of native light weaving abilities. All that being said, he needs Shards actively fighting on his side to beat a shard. I am curious if a vessel like Taravangian consumed other God metals in sufficient quantities, could they help him fight the impulses of Odium, which in its purest form is divine wrath. Like large amounts of Endowment, Preservation and Honor. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

AFAIK we do not know which Shard he would have gtten. However, the more important question to me seems to be why he declined.

And what this means for his chances to form an alliance.

There is a WoB saying that Hoid would've liked the Shard Endowment or would've received the shard Endowment, I don't know which.

 

EDIT: Found the WOB.

ParadoxicalZen

There's a WoB on Theoryland that if Hoid was tempted by a Shard it'd be Endowment. Why is that?

Brandon Sanderson

There's a word on Theoryland that if he was tempted by a shard it'd be Endowment? Things in his past, that make sense. Will make sense once you know him more.

Shadows of Self London UK signing (Oct. 19, 2015)

So, it's a theory that Endowmnet was one he liked, something BS understood and somewhat agreed with. However, this is not the shard offered to him as there are several references to that shard not having been revealed at the year 2018. Whether it was revealed in the letters in RoW is another story.

Also, this theory doesn't take a lot of things into account. It might not be wrong, and Hoid could be doing this, but there are other elements Hoid is doing which aren't answered by this, like his constant collecting of investiture from different shards. There is more to this than Odium, even if his attention is more focused there now due to the current desolation.

Edited July 4, 2021 by Aspiring Writer

[+Oltux72 he/him]

19 minutes ago, Aspiring Writer said:

 So, it's a theory that Endowmnet was one he liked, something BS understood and somewhat agreed with. However, this is not the shard offered to him as there are several references to that shard not having been revealed at the year 2018. Whether it was revealed in the letters in RoW is another story.

This is going down an alley we know very little about. For all we know they drew lots about the order of picking and Hoid was left with only the loathsome stuff. I doubt it really makes sense to speculate a lot on this without at least some information on the reasoning behind the Shattering.

19 minutes ago, Aspiring Writer said:

Also, this theory doesn't take a lot of things into account. It might not be wrong, and Hoid could be doing this, but there are other elements Hoid is doing which aren't answered by this, like his constant collecting of investiture from different shards.

Yes. But that is not a theory to explain Hoid. If it were it would be in the wrong section. It is a theory about a specific issue.

19 minutes ago, Aspiring Writer said:

There is more to this than Odium, even if his attention is more focused there now due to the current desolation.

Well, no. That is a basic misunderstanding, as if Hoid were merely reacting to an unforseen catastrophe. That cannot be. He prepared this intervention for years. For instance, one does not just walk up to the king of Alethkar and declares oneself his new Wit. Hoid has been preparing for this, possibly for centuries.

[Master Silver]

So Hoid has some sort of agreement that the Shards cannot directly harm him. But as we have seen, they can strip him of investiture (or at least certain types). There may be a way around this. Like if he invests his breaths into his plate that is bound to him. I believe living plate can travel through Shadesmar. But how much investiture can he amass without ascending? Surely he knows. Once he ascends Hoid would be bound by certain rules (something he doesn't want). So the Lord Ruler, not bound (very powerful). Heralds, sort of bound, by their oath pact. Radiants, bound by oaths. And some magics are bound to systems. Like being an Elantrian. But even combining a bunch of magic systems and becoming very powerful in each type, a finite amount of power (no matter how much) multiplied by 16 (16 Shards) is infinitely less than infinity, and we are told that Shards have infinite energy (can't remember where it said this and I'm not sure it is strictly true), but they are bound by rules. Side note, Hoid not being able to kill, may go away. It certainly isn't because he doesn't have the stomach for it. He is willing to sacrifice everyone on Roshar to keep Odium bound.

[Jondesu he/him]

On 7/4/2021 at 10:08 AM, Master Silver said:

So Hoid has some sort of agreement that the Shards cannot directly harm him.

Actually, prior to RoW, he didn’t. That’s why he was avoiding being discovered by Odium in the previous books. The contract with Odium included a clause making him one of Honor’s representatives, which made him then untouchable to at least Odium. The other Shards we’re not sure about, though possibly they would also view him as protected, depending on the specifics of the agreement they set up in the first place.