Opal Lion Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Sapphire Elephant said: alsho jokesh on me cosh ostrich is not speakin in the doc :(. sad doc moment. can't relate :P. Right, I thought I already said this? Plum had a Seon- Seon Opa (Sorry I'm not on Sel anymore and I can't take care of her ;-; @plum) And they wouldn't have had any other Items, as they were a shard...???? Their flip shoulda said if they had any Minor roles, so??? I guess...could they have started out with two Items instead of two roles/one role one Item? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azure Mouse Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 [OOC: If we're talking about what we hate, do I get to mention that I hate having to give reads of players or analyse their posts? Does that deserve or merit any consideration? No? I thought not, but I figured I might as well represent the people who do. Well, then there you have it. You may rest assured that I will go on to be dragged back into a part of the game I honestly absolutely detest and will have nothing to add for As Magenta Albatross says - I'm not good at reading people, and I don't play the game for it. I do link analysis, voting analysis. I play to my strengths. Anyway. Dead horse. @Saffron Iguana- I hinted at it but I'll say it more openly. Dragonfly scanned them D3 and found they had High Investiture. I specifically asked if Dragonfly was willing to do it ASAP as my sense was that once the Shard/Non-Shard reasoning was hinted at, it was possible someone might try passing a Shard to Rhino D3/N3 so Rhino could go, "Who, me? No, I'm clearly a Shard." I think Dragonfly could be lying but to me the payoff is unclear. Scorpion scanned her as having used that specific scan on D3 as well, so minimally we'd need to postulate that both Dragonfly and Scorpion were lying together. And what's the payoff? Considering I was hellbent on chasing down the non-Shards on Shadesmar, if they were passing the Shard, Dragonfly would be better off not wasting an action; and if they and Scorpion were working together, then better to simply lie outright and say Rhino scanned with Deific Investiture, as that would've thrown Rhino out from suspicion. (Dragonfly might've been redirected - @Ivory Dragonfly ?) My theory is one of two scenarios: they passed Mercy to Rhino once it was clear Rhino was drawing flak (D3), figuring to get rid of the Shard since it was clear the consensus was that Mercy was Elim so having Rhino carry the suspicious Shard wasn't weird and might very well spare Mercy more scrutiny. This makes sense to me insofar as I don't see why Rhino would use Mercy's investiture action, which is what Axl scanned her as doing N3. The very person who obviously needed protection from the execution was Rhino, and Mercy can't invest in herself! Ostrich has clearly been a Shard since I scanned him as using a Shardic N3 - (doubt he still is; probably intends to soak a kill, maybe burn a protect item, and then have new!Odium do the killing since we won't know who they are.) The other scenario involves some form of pass-the-Shard, but passing comes very late on actions and passing takes an action. For Rhino to have not had Mercy D3 on a scan, Rhino would have to had passed Mercy N2. Except Rhino was on Shadesmar with all of us when Dingo did their Ruin thing - that's precisely what kicked off this entire 'Shadesmar Eight+' business, and if Rhino didn't make the Night Kill, then who did? *awkward silence as Axl and Mouse stare suspiciously at each other* So no. I think there are a bit too many problems with the 'Rhino-starts-as-Mercy-but-plays-pass-the-Shard' theory. Wilson clarified all roles will be reflected so it's possible Rhino simply started with two items instead as the rules say 'minor roles or items' for non-Shards. Anyway, I think there are some other mysteries worth checking out too, for players who don't get off on post analysis. Why Ostrich didn't put in a Shard kill N2 - Flamingo and Octopus were in the Rosharan system so there was no reason to not get off a shot just in case. Logically, Ostrich can't have been roleblocked, due to the actions economy for Autonomy. For scanners who'd like some suggestions: if Ostrich passed the Shard, and even if Ostrich doesn't, if/when Ostrich dies, you might want to keep your eyes out for non-Shards suddenly using Shardic actions, or alternatively, it's announced that a Shard has been removed from the game, keep an eye out for a Shard whose nature has changed. Don't know about whether their team could have a third Shard, but if it does, then there we go. Anyway. As promised, the sanitised/desensitised infodrop: Shardic Identities, in Alphabetical Order Spoiler KNOWN SHARDS: Ambition, Autonomy, Devotion, Honour, Invention, Preservation, Prudence, Ruin, Survival, Valor, Whimsy KNOWN SHARD PLAYER POOL: Amethyst Scorpion, Charcoal Hyena, Ivory Dragonfly, Melon Dingo, Opal Lion, Saffron Iguana, Sapphire Elephant, Turquoise Gorilla I know the numbers don't match. I've jumbled it up a bit and done it alphabetically: this information is largely correct if in alphabetical order with one or two small inaccuracies introduced for reasons of opsec. Known Movements Anyone interested to help fill this in is welcome. Spoiler D1 Sel: Mouse, Invention, Gecko Shadesmar: Ruin, Lion, Dragonfly Taldain: Survival, Rhino, Autonomy Roshar: Axolotl, Heron, Weasel Braize: Crocodile, Iguana, Octopus Ashyn: Ostrich, Kangaroo, Scorpion Nalthis: Albatross, Penguin Scadrial: Vulture, Swan, Chameleon First of the Sun: Zebra D2 Sel: Lion, Vulture Shadesmar: Invention, Mouse, Survival, Dragonfly, Rhino, Ruin, Iguana, Scorpion Taldain: Beagle, Ostrich, Roshar: Braize: Octopus Ashyn: Flamingo Nalthis: Albatross, Penguin, Swan Scadrial: Axolotl, Weasel, Chameleon First of the Sun: Autonomy, Zebra, Gecko, Tuatara D3 Sel: Scorpion, Vulture Shadesmar Taldain: Invention, Ostrich, Rhino Roshar: Mouse Braize: Ashyn: Ruin, Flamingo, Chameleon Nalthis: Albatross, Penguin, Swan Scadrial: Lion, Dragonfly, Autonomy, Survival, Weasel, Iguana, Kangaroo, Axolotl First of the Sun: Zebra, Gecko, Tuatara D4: Sel: Scorpion, Vulture, Iguana, Survival, Albatross Shadesmar Taldain: Ostrich, Gorilla, Rhino Roshar: Mouse, Axolotl Braize: Ashyn Nalthis: Coral Swan, Ruin, Opal Lion, Autonomy Scadrial: Dragonfly, Weasel, Chameleon, Kangaroo First of the Sun: Zebra, Tuatara, Flamingo Known Scans Spoiler Mouse: D2 - Amethyst Scorpion used an Investiture Action, N3 - Fuchsia Ostrich used a Shardic Action Dragonfly: D3 - Rhino had High Investiture Scorpion: D3 - Dragonfly used a scan. Axolotl: N3 - Rhino used an Investiture Action You're welcome. I'm going to peace out as I think this game has gotten to a bad place and if I wanted high blood pressure, I'd stay with my day job. Given that I've done a decent chunk of talking last cycle, I'm going to sit back and drink tea and watch. Actions will be sent in and have already been done so. @Charcoal Hyena Thank you in particular for identifying what you wanted in a clear way that made it easy to deliver after consultation with the GM. My pleasure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 25 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said: Anyone interested to help fill this in is welcome. ᴛʜᴇʀᴇ'ꜱ ɴᴏᴛ ᴀ ᴡʜᴏʟᴇ ʟᴏᴛ ᴛᴏ ꜰɪʟʟ ɪɴ. ᴇᴀꜱʏ ᴛᴏ ᴀꜱꜱᴜᴍᴇ ᴛʜᴀᴛ ᴏᴄᴛᴏᴘᴜꜱ ʜᴀꜱ ꜱᴘᴇɴᴛ ᴛʜᴇ ᴇɴᴛɪʀᴇ ɢᴀᴍᴇ ᴏɴ ʙʀᴀɪᴢᴇ ᴀꜱ ᴛʜᴇʏ'ᴠᴇ ʙᴀꜱɪᴄᴀʟʟʏ ʙᴇᴇɴ ɪɴᴀᴄᴛɪᴠᴇ, ᴀɴᴅ ʟɪᴋᴇᴡɪꜱᴇ ᴡɪᴛʜ ᴛᴜᴀᴛᴀʀᴀ ᴏɴ ꜰᴏᴛꜱ. ᴡʜᴇɴ ᴄᴏᴍʙɪɴᴇᴅ ᴡɪᴛʜ ᴍʏ ɴᴏᴛᴇꜱ ꜰʀᴏᴍ ᴛʜʀᴇᴀᴅ, ᴏɴʟʏ ᴘᴇᴏᴘʟᴇ ɪ ᴄᴀɴ'ᴛ ᴘʟᴀᴄᴇ ᴀʀᴇ ᴋᴀɴɢᴀʀᴏᴏ ꜰᴏʀ ᴄʏᴄʟᴇ 2 (ɢᴜᴇꜱꜱɪɴɢ ʀᴏꜱʜᴀʀ), ᴀɴᴅ ʙᴇᴀɢʟᴇ & ꜰʟᴀᴍɪɴɢᴏ ᴏɴ ᴄʏᴄʟᴇ 1 (ᴏɴᴇ ᴏɴ ɴᴀʟᴛʜɪꜱ, ᴛʜᴇ ᴏᴛʜᴇʀ ᴏɴ ꜰᴏᴛꜱ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saffron Iguana Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 @Pearl Chameleon are you Devotion or Dominion? Sorry to put you on the spot like this. Neither of those are high value night kill targets however, and it seems likely that the reason no one has claimed those two roles (to my knowledge) is because those that have them have been largely inactive. Would it be a good Elim strategy to kill off all the non Shards? Not to brainstorm ideas for them, but the pool of those has actually grown rather small. Six I believe, and one of those might be an Elim. *tinkers tinkeringly* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violet Axolotl Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 27 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: ᴛʜᴇʀᴇ'ꜱ ɴᴏᴛ ᴀ ᴡʜᴏʟᴇ ʟᴏᴛ ᴛᴏ ꜰɪʟʟ ɪɴ. ᴇᴀꜱʏ ᴛᴏ ᴀꜱꜱᴜᴍᴇ ᴛʜᴀᴛ ᴏᴄᴛᴏᴘᴜꜱ ʜᴀꜱ ꜱᴘᴇɴᴛ ᴛʜᴇ ᴇɴᴛɪʀᴇ ɢᴀᴍᴇ ᴏɴ ʙʀᴀɪᴢᴇ ᴀꜱ ᴛʜᴇʏ'ᴠᴇ ʙᴀꜱɪᴄᴀʟʟʏ ʙᴇᴇɴ ɪɴᴀᴄᴛɪᴠᴇ, ᴀɴᴅ ʟɪᴋᴇᴡɪꜱᴇ ᴡɪᴛʜ ᴛᴜᴀᴛᴀʀᴀ ᴏɴ ꜰᴏᴛꜱ. ᴡʜᴇɴ ᴄᴏᴍʙɪɴᴇᴅ ᴡɪᴛʜ ᴍʏ ɴᴏᴛᴇꜱ ꜰʀᴏᴍ ᴛʜʀᴇᴀᴅ, ᴏɴʟʏ ᴘᴇᴏᴘʟᴇ ɪ ᴄᴀɴ'ᴛ ᴘʟᴀᴄᴇ ᴀʀᴇ ᴋᴀɴɢᴀʀᴏᴏ ꜰᴏʀ ᴄʏᴄʟᴇ 2 (ɢᴜᴇꜱꜱɪɴɢ ʀᴏꜱʜᴀʀ), ᴀɴᴅ ʙᴇᴀɢʟᴇ & ꜰʟᴀᴍɪɴɢᴏ ᴏɴ ᴄʏᴄʟᴇ 1 (ᴏɴᴇ ᴏɴ ɴᴀʟᴛʜɪꜱ, ᴛʜᴇ ᴏᴛʜᴇʀ ᴏɴ ꜰᴏᴛꜱ). Oh, Kangaroo was with me, Weasel, and Chameleon on Scadrial C2. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said: Oh, Kangaroo was with me, Weasel, and Chameleon on Scadrial C2. Sorry. smh smh I'm disappointed in you /s 30 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said: *tinkers tinkeringly* Do you have? nothing to respond to? from Elephant's or mine? posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 hours ago, Opal Lion said: I'm not sure on what their reacton to me voting ostrich means (probably nothing? :P.) as they...seemed to agree with me, but I...couldn't tell :P. Most of your reasoning for voting on Ostrich made sense, except for the part where you said Ostrich voted for Beagle when the main target was Gecko given that there wasn't a super big train on anyone at that point. Flamingo I'm feeling pretty good about for their votes on Crocodile D1 and then Gecko D2. The main thing against them is Mouse's claim that Flamingo was in the Rosharan system C2 without being attacked by Odium. What's your reasoning on Scorpion? 2 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said: I am going to start considering Elephant to be one of the Elim team. They need to slow down the village to complete their wincon. I would do the same in their shoes. Opal, if they have a PM with Ostrich, that should be closed. Would it be a good Elim strategy to kill off all the non Shards? Not to brainstorm ideas for them, but the pool of those has actually grown rather small. Six I believe, and one of those might be an Elim. Treating neutrals as hostile is how you get hostile neutrals. We're certainly not anywhere near a point where there's a choice between the village winning and Autonomy winning, so there's no reason to assume those goals conflict. The elims are going to need a non-Shard to receive Odium's Investiture so long as village non-Shards exist. The elims can only kill off non-Shards so quickly though since Odium's kill doesn't work on them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 hours ago, Coral Swan said: Treating neutrals as hostile is how you get hostile neutrals. We're certainly not anywhere near a point where there's a choice between the village winning and Autonomy winning, so there's no reason to assume those goals conflict. ᴡᴇʟʟ ᴛʜᴇʏ'ʀᴇ ɴᴏᴛ ᴇxᴀᴄᴛʟʏ ᴏɴ ᴏᴜʀ ꜱɪᴅᴇ ᴇɪᴛʜᴇʀ. ɢᴏʀɪʟʟᴀ ʜᴀꜱ ʙᴇᴇɴ ᴀʟᴏɴᴇ ᴡɪᴛʜ ᴛᴡᴏ ᴇʟɪᴍꜱ ꜰᴏʀ ᴛʜᴇ ʟᴀꜱᴛ ᴛᴡᴏ ᴄʏᴄʟᴇꜱ. ᴇʟᴇᴘʜᴀɴᴛ ᴀɴᴅ ʜʏᴇɴᴀ ꜱʜᴀʀᴇᴅ ᴀ ᴘʟᴀɴᴇᴛ ᴡɪᴛʜ ʀʜɪɴᴏ ᴏɴ ᴛʜᴇ ꜰɪʀꜱᴛ ᴛᴜʀɴ. ɪ ᴅᴏɴ'ᴛ ᴋɴᴏᴡ ɪꜰ ᴛʜᴇʀᴇ'ꜱ ᴘᴍꜱ ʙᴇᴛᴡᴇᴇɴ ɴᴇᴜᴛʀᴀʟꜱ ᴀɴᴅ ᴇᴠɪʟꜱ, ʙᴜᴛ ɪᴛ'ꜱ ᴄᴇʀᴛᴀɪɴʟʏ ᴘᴏꜱꜱɪʙʟᴇ ᴛʜᴀᴛ ᴛʜᴇʏ'ᴠᴇ ʙᴇᴇɴ ᴄᴏᴍᴍᴜɴɪᴄᴀᴛɪɴɢ, ᴀɴᴅ ɪꜰ ᴛʜᴇʀᴇ'ꜱ ᴏɴʟʏ 6 ᴇʟɪᴍꜱ, ᴛʜᴇɴ ᴡᴇ'ʀᴇ ɴᴏᴛ ᴀʟʟ ᴛʜᴀᴛ ꜰᴀʀ ᴏꜰꜰ. ᴏɴᴇ ᴍᴏʀᴇ ʟᴜᴄᴋʏ ʙʀᴇᴀᴋ ᴀɴᴅ ᴛʜᴇ ᴇʟɪᴍꜱ ꜰᴀᴛᴇ ɪꜱ ꜱᴇᴀʟᴇᴅ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azure Mouse Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 hours ago, Coral Swan said: Treating neutrals as hostile is how you get hostile neutrals. We're certainly not anywhere near a point where there's a choice between the village winning and Autonomy winning, so there's no reason to assume those goals conflict. [OOC: Returning just to note I'm with both Swan and Scorpion on this. There's no reason to antagonise the neutrals while we don't have to and according to my calculations, unless he's been dawdling, Autonomy is probably more on-track for his wincon than we are for ours right now. Being prepared for funny business is okay and in fact essential - we shouldn't make the mistake of thinking they're on our side or care about us but there's no reason to immediately assume the worst. The neutrals will almost certainly have to deal with the Elims because a significant precondition of most of their wincons is surviving to actually fulfil them - or literally surviving, if you're Survival. They'll also have to deal with us because stuff like Ruin exploding First of the Sun or other invested worlds sets Autonomy back. Plus, the Elims aren't the only faction with kills. I take this to mean that they are more likely to go for a balancing act than overt play against us. I'm moderately confident we can deconflict in cases where a clash arises, but we're not close to that kind of scenario right now. In the absence of clear indicators of anything other than indifference from the neutrals, I'd rather focus on finding the Elims.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sapphire Elephant Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 "yalls i literally need jusht 2 more cycles ta win if dingo deshtroys braize and yous dont skip a day usin ultimate preservashun. whyu guys freakin out i donno" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 (edited) okay, so this is very bare bones!! i haven't had much time to closely pay attention to this game, though i will have time to do a deep dive into all of the past cycles and stuff soon!! these are just the things i remember off the top of my head!! amber vulture: i know you've posted things, but i have no idea what they've said!! null amethyst scorpion: again, i know you've posted things, but they've given me very little impressions. null azure mouse: i have been pming this person for awhile, and i know they are a non-shard!! i trust them because they are very much in a position where it would be very hard to have gotten this far without getting caught in a lie!! i don't think this person deepwolfs often either. so strong village!! charcoal hyena: survival, and i think it's been fun to read their poems!! i hope you achieve your wincon!! coral swan: don't know much off the top of my head, but i do like their recent post(s) about not messing with the neutral!! null, maybe slight village! cream tuatara: they've basically been inactive, which would be unfortunate for their teammates if they were an elim!! null fuchsia ostrich: almost certainly used to be odium!! i doubt they are still, since they would've known they would be protected by mercy and could therefore survive the removal to pass their shard!! absolutely positively an elim!! indigo weasel: have they posted?? if so, i remember none of their posts. null ivory dragonfly: i think they've posted a decent amount, but i don't remember what it was. null magenta albatross: they've posted occasionally, but not of much substance. if there's an elim hiding in the less active players, this would be my first guess!! null, leaning elim melon dingo: almost certainly ruin, and therefore village!! this is the one role i highly doubt the elims would ever start off with!! onyx flamingo: village opal lion: prudence. and either they're doing a very good job of tricking us, or they're village!! pearl chameleon: don't remember much of what they've said. null quartz zebra: so, the fact that they've stayed on fots for most of the game is a little sus to me!! either they're a very paranoid villager, or they have a reason to want that vote taken off them. mild elim saffron iguana: i don't know why, but i'm just getting really bad vibes from this person!! it's just gut right now, but still leaning elim sage kangaroo: probably village, based on what happened d1!! sapphire elephant: autonomy, and i hope you finish your wincon!! scarlet octopus: i know they've posted a decent amount, i just can't remember what it's said!! null turquoise gorilla: almost certainly invention, so i hope you can complete your wincon!! violet axolotl: i trust this person a lot, both based on the d1/d2 stuff, and because of pms and what i know about their role!! strong village i've colored the names based on how i feel about my read of them!! if you can't tell apart the lighter or darker greens/reds, just lemme know!! Edited January 12, 2021 by Onyx Flamingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: ivory dragonfly: i think they've posted a decent amount, but i don't remember what it was. null Okay let's see what I can remember off the top of my head to try help you out 80% banter and irrelevant to game stuff because I am a chaotic being. I did a read list on people once, voted maybe twice or thrice, sometimes with reasons. Done a lot more of talk in docs and PM's and stuff. One of the shadesmar 8 #survivedruin #ripshadesmar #planetpiñata Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saffron Iguana Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 More reads, because I read in my January issue of Technology Trends that that's what the industry leaders are doing these days. And if I do it at night, I can color people's names without confusing the GMs. Player List -Amber Vulture - Voted for Croc. It is bad strategy for an elim team to allow a teammate to flip in the first round. I believe one of the voters for Croc would have crossed over to Kangaroo if they saw what was happening, so I have decided to trust everyone who voted for Croc. -Amethyst Scorpion – Scans have been helpful for the village -Azure Mouse – Scans have been helpful for the village. -Fuchsia Ostrich – Probably Odium, for reasons stated by Mouse. Sus for not disclosing their Mercy protection. -Pearl Chameleon - I think they are likely Devotion or Dominion. Due to their inactivity, it is hard to say much else about them. I think the elims may have a splinter on their team, and having an inactive teammate may also be a reason for their troubles. This would not be my first pick for a mobbing, but I am hoping to get the chance to talk to them soon. -Magenta Albatross – Rhino (Mercy) was dead either way last round. It would have been better for the Elims if they had died as the result of the mobbing, rather than flipping elim while dying to protect Odium!Ostrich. Albatross voted Rhino, along with me and Ostrich. I can understand if they simply did not want to change wagons, but if the elims made the call to protect Ostrich by exing Rhino, it makes sense to me that two of them would have hopped on that bus and stuck with it. -Ivory Dragonfly – Scans have been helpful for the village. -Melon Dingo – Ruin, who for balance reasons cannot be an elim. -Onyx Flamingo – D1 voted for Croc. Sussed me just now, which an elim would avoid, given I am trusted village by Mouse and Lion (per their public reads). An elim would know better than to make a controversial read like that. I am however curious how they survived in the Rosharan system for so long. -Opal Lion – Voted for Croc -Sage Kangaroo – Voted Croc -Violet Axolotl – Voted for Croc -Charcoal Hyena – Survival. Possible explanation for one of the ‘attacked but survived’s? Those remain unresolved, which I’m guessing means the Elim team made a stab at someone and were roleblocked/redirected/protected etc. -Sapphire Elephant – Autonomy. I appreciate their response to my comments last night. Their defence is that they only need two more cycles to win. Depending on how many elims remain and when people start taking shots with their kill powers, this game may end before that. That said, their best strategy probably revolves around working with Ruin and hoping the game drags a little longer, which is quite possible, so I believe them when they say they will not work against the village at this point. -Turquoise Gorilla - Invention -Coral Swan – Null. I could search for posts of theirs to analyze, but that would imply that they have made more of an impression on me than they have. I have yet to interact with them, or any of the other nulls, and they haven’t said anything AI, in my opinion. -Cream Tuatara - Null -Indigo Weasel - Null -Scarlet Octopus - Null -Quartz Zebra – Null. Last night I threw a bunch of thoughts out there then went to bed. They have yet to respond, and, re-reading the thread, don’t really need to. I find it curious that they don’t want any PMs, but I see no immediate reason to pursue further questioning of them. Although Flamingo makes a good point about them being on FOTS a lot. Possible Cultivation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magenta Albatross Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 36 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said: -Magenta Albatross – Rhino (Mercy) was dead either way last round. It would have been better for the Elims if they had died as the result of the mobbing, rather than flipping elim while dying to protect Odium!Ostrich. Albatross voted Rhino, along with me and Ostrich. I can understand if they simply did not want to change wagons, but if the elims made the call to protect Ostrich by exing Rhino, it makes sense to me that two of them would have hopped on that bus and stuck with it. I didn't switch away from Rhino because I simply wasn't online at the time when the Ostrich train started and I don't wake up early enough to post at the very end of the day turn. I don't think I even saw any votes on Ostrich until after the day had ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violet Axolotl Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said: I didn't switch away from Rhino because I simply wasn't online at the time when the Ostrich train started and I don't wake up early enough to post at the very end of the day turn. I don't think I even saw any votes on Ostrich until after the day had ended. While you're here, mind giving a quick summary of your reads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saffron Iguana Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 @Amber Vulture you say here that Octopus voted D1. That's incorrect. Quote Scarlet Octopus - Slight Village - mainly because of their late vote on Croc D1, when the Elim team seemed to be trying to save him. Re: 21 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said: I didn't switch away from Rhino because I simply wasn't online at the time when the Ostrich train started and I don't wake up early enough to post at the very end of the day turn. I don't think I even saw any votes on Ostrich until after the day had ended. Here's a list of when everyone voted last round. Bold indicates a switch. Colors are based on my current reads. Ignore the different shades of green. Axolotl (Rhino), Hyena (Rhino), Lion (Ostrich), Mouse (Rhino), Flamingo (Rhino), Zebra (Rhino), Albatross (Rhino), Dingo (Rhino), Scorpion (Rhino), Swan (Rhino), Iguana (Rhino), Mouse (Ostrich +Big Post), Ostrich (Rhino), Axolotl (Ostrich), Lion (Ostrich again), Swan (Ostrich), Zebra (Ostrich), Dingo (Ostrich), Kangaroo (Ostrich), Elephant (Ostrich), [Ostrich starts openwolfing] Flamingo (Ostrich), Vulture (Ostrich), Gorilla (Lion) You did indeed vote before Mouse's post that was the catalyst for the new wagon. I believe that you went offline before the counter-bus picked up steam. At that time, the elims probably were planning to bus Rhino. After Ostrich was called out by Mouse, they probably decided to bus Ostrich instead for village cred. Elim!Albatross would have been offline for that and missed that change in plan. Swan and Zebra's two votes brought Ostrich onto the chopping block, which looks good for them. Unless they timed their bussing well. Swan comes out looking the best from the null gang, then Zebra, then Albatross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quartz Zebra Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said: quartz zebra: so, the fact that they've stayed on fots for most of the game is a little sus to me!! either they're a very paranoid villager, or they have a reason to want that vote taken off them. mild elim Laziness isn't an option? (I started on FotS and haven't moved). Besides, if everyone knows that I'm on FotS, it doesn't really matter. I might go to Roshar so that I can collect some new data for my calculations though. 3 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said: I believe one of the voters for Croc would have crossed over to Kangaroo if they saw what was happening, so I have decided to trust everyone who voted for Croc. I disagree. There has been a very strong (and successful) trend of elims bussing teammates in recent games of all formats. Also, the last game with a D1 elim kill went pretty poorly for the village. I think elims actually tend to benefit in the long run from having one of their team flip on D1, since the initial reasoning for the votes isn't that great. I'd wager that one of the votes on Croc is from an elim, and of those Vulture and Flamingo are my greatest suspicions. Axolotl is also a possibility, but my reasoning for suspicion on them had to do with me also being suspicious of Elephant early on, who is not elim. So I'd probably lean more village on Axolotl. I do appreciate the reads list from Flamingo, so after we get through the confirmed elims, I'll probably go for Vulture. Kanga is village unless Croc wanted to try and bus a teammate D1, since Croc essentially caused the train on Kanga. I agree that Dingo should also be village, although more because of the Destruction of Shadesmar than because of the role. Troll GMs like to troll. Mouse is likely village as well. I think Aman could pull off an elim!Mouse, but probably not many others at this point. I also think Mouse has gone beyond pushing for inevitable kills on elims and is just straight up being a helpful villager. Lion seems village, but I want to take a closer look at their posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said: -Quartz Zebra – Null. Last night I threw a bunch of thoughts out there then went to bed. They have yet to respond, and, re-reading the thread, don’t really need to. I find it curious that they don’t want any PMs, but I see no immediate reason to pursue further questioning of them. Although Flamingo makes a good point about them being on FOTS a lot. Possible Cultivation? If I didn't have reason to believe that you were village, You would be one of my top Elim reads right now smh. You throw out the idea of killing them, then the moment I say that's kinda weird reasoning you backtrack and go to "yeah, they can chill for now". 3 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said: -Pearl Chameleon - I think they are likely Devotion or Dominion. Due to their inactivity, it is hard to say much else about them. I think the elims may have a splinter on their team, and having an inactive teammate may also be a reason for their troubles. This would not be my first pick for a mobbing, but I am hoping to get the chance to talk to them soon. Again you rely on setup spec so much that you assign Pearl to Elim because you think they might be Devotion or Dominion? Why couldn't Ambition be the Elim splinter, and what reasoning do you have to think that Pearl has one of them? 2 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said: I might go to Roshar so that I can collect some new data for my calculations though. O.o. I think that might be wise... 4 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said: Lion seems village, but I want to take a closer look at their posts. At least someone does ;-;. I mean, when everyone starts village reading me is usually when you gotta worry, amirite? O.o 7 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said: Flamingo are my greatest suspicions. I do find Iguana and Flamingo to be suspicious, but their roles don't quite make sense with the Elim team, imo. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 15 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said: @Pearl Chameleon are you Devotion or Dominion? Sorry to put you on the spot like this. Neither of those are high value night kill targets however, and it seems likely that the reason no one has claimed those two roles (to my knowledge) is because those that have them have been largely inactive. Would it be a good Elim strategy to kill off all the non Shards? Not to brainstorm ideas for them, but the pool of those has actually grown rather small. Six I believe, and one of those might be an Elim. *tinkers tinkeringly* No. Sorry i havent been on, its hard to get on for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magenta Albatross Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 @Saffron Iguana, your argument is basically that the elims would have originally been planning to bus Rhino and that elim!me would have missed the change in plan. Village!me would have done the exact same actions - voting on Rhino because they seemed suspicious then missing the shift to Ostrich due to being offline. Since my actions are the same whether I’m a villager or an elim, this is by definition NAI. Plus, you also effectively did the exact same thing as I did - you initially voted on Rhino and didn't post after the Ostrich train started in force. If you're a villager, then I don't see why you would think that me taking the exact same actions as yourself would make me an elim, which makes me suspect that you might be an elim projecting your own actions onto myself. Also, you said that the elims probably decided to bus Ostrich, but I don’t think that’s the case since Rhino decided to die in their place, practically guaranteeing that they'll be exe'd next cycle anyways. This indicates to me that Ostrich is an important elim role (possibly Odium) and just needs one more cycle to enact their plans. I'm going to be in class for the next few hours, so I won't be able to reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saffron Iguana Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Quartz Zebra said: Laziness isn't an option? (I started on FotS and haven't moved). Besides, if everyone knows that I'm on FotS, it doesn't really matter. I might go to Roshar so that I can collect some new data for my calculations though. I disagree. There has been a very strong (and successful) trend of elims bussing teammates in recent games of all formats. Also, the last game with a D1 elim kill went pretty poorly for the village. I think elims actually tend to benefit in the long run from having one of their team flip on D1, since the initial reasoning for the votes isn't that great. I'd wager that one of the votes on Croc is from an elim, and of those Vulture and Flamingo are my greatest suspicions. Axolotl is also a possibility, but my reasoning for suspicion on them had to do with me also being suspicious of Elephant early on, who is not elim. So I'd probably lean more village on Axolotl. I do appreciate the reads list from Flamingo, so after we get through the confirmed elims, I'll probably go for Vulture. FOTS is where elims go to hide from village votes. But since you started on it, and I think starting positions were random (right?), it does seem more likely laziness than a long term plan to dodge an exe. This D1 flip has resulted in 3 going on 4 elim flips, so I suspect it was not a bus. If it was, it wasn't a planned decision from the start. 1 hour ago, Opal Lion said: If I didn't have reason to believe that you were village, You would be one of my top Elim reads right now smh. You throw out the idea of killing them, then the moment I say that's kinda weird reasoning you backtrack and go to "yeah, they can chill for now". Again you rely on setup spec so much that you assign Pearl to Elim because you think they might be Devotion or Dominion? Why couldn't Ambition be the Elim splinter, and what reasoning do you have to think that Pearl has one of them? I have the confidence of a person who likely will not be exed, so I can throw out ideas and relent if strong counter-arguments are made. : P I think elims would hold off revealing their Shardic powers the longest because that gives them flexibility. As such, Devotion and Dominion remaining hidden (from me at least) is suspicious to me. 1 hour ago, Pearl Chameleon said: No. Sorry i havent been on, its hard to get on for me. Even if they are not a Shard, I still think having an inactive elim in the group makes sense. 37 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said: @Saffron Iguana, your argument is basically that the elims would have originally been planning to bus Rhino and that elim!me would have missed the change in plan. Village!me would have done the exact same actions - voting on Rhino because they seemed suspicious then missing the shift to Ostrich due to being offline. Since my actions are the same whether I’m a villager or an elim, this is by definition NAI. Plus, you also effectively did the exact same thing as I did - you initially voted on Rhino and didn't post after the Ostrich train started in force. If you're a villager, then I don't see why you would think that me taking the exact same actions as yourself would make me an elim, which makes me suspect that you might be an elim projecting your own actions onto myself. Also, you said that the elims probably decided to bus Ostrich, but I don’t think that’s the case since Rhino decided to die in their place, practically guaranteeing that they'll be exe'd next cycle anyways. This indicates to me that Ostrich is an important elim role (possibly Odium) and just needs one more cycle to enact their plans. I agree with that assessment, and admit I voted the same way as a villager and it doesn't mean anything. However, I find it hard to believe that over the Day, not a single elim voted. That's why I'm looking at the voting list for suspects. The three individuals I mentioned are the most suspicious to me, so thank you all for responding to my accusations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violet Axolotl Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 19 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said: This D1 flip has resulted in 3 going on 4 elim flips, so I suspect it was not a bus. If it was, it wasn't a planned decision from the start. Actually the D1 flip resulted in 1 elim flip, with the others coming mechanically. Never underestimate a bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said: Actually the D1 flip resulted in 1 elim flip, with the others coming mechanically. Never underestimate a bus. I think that it's okay to kiiiinda clear them for now. We of course can't say for sure that they were not bussing but if we have other leads then I don't think going back to D1 and looking at votes there is going to help much. Edited January 12, 2021 by Opal Lion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azure Mouse Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Tenth of the Dusk looked over the list he'd scratched in the sand. There wasn't much to do as the highstorm continued to rage, and he'd swapped from sleeping to scratching out lists in the sand, trying to work out what he thought of the rest of the worldhoppers. Another, shorter list catalogued everything he knew of Kaddar. He was on Kaddar's homeworld, after all. This was where it had all begun, years ago, when the Blackthorn first began conquest. NOTHING IS CERTAIN, he wrote, reversing his grip on the hilt of the knife as he hit the lower point of the C. But he felt moderately confident in these assessments. Spoiler Sir Brockett [OOC: Violet Axolotl] - Tenth thought the man had been involved in the execution of three of Odium's own, and had provided a useful scan of Solemnheart's [OOC: Plum Rhino] activity on the third night. While it was not impossible that the man was suborned and in deep cover, Tenth did not consider that as likely. Remy [OOC: Opal Lion] - The list was not in any particular order, but Tenth thought that Remy was likely of Adonalsium as well. Remy could have recanted on the first day [OOC: could have saved Crocodile by retracting], but had not, and the man had set up an information network that had been extremely useful to the Children. Moreover, he had provided a scan verifying Eris [OOC: forgot about that one, but yes - scanned Dragonfly N1 which is where the distinctive scan comes from.] Arleoxtai Ashvtet [OOC: Sage Kangaroo] - Tenth believed it an unlikely ploy that those of Odium would have put three of their own at risk on the first day, given how Solemnheart and Konion [OOC: Ostrich] had both elected to remain aloof while Aurora [OOC: Gecko] endangered herself for a shot at saving Ashao [OOC: Crocodile.] Niru Drash [OOC: Melon Dingo] - it was clear as day that Niru Drash was the Shard Ruin, and that it had been Drash who had set up a trap by destroying Shadesmar on the second night. The bounty hunter in Tenth approved of the way Drash had established his trap; neat and economical and ruthless. If Drash had been of Odium, then Roshar would have been long destroyed. Eris [OOC: Ivory Dragonfly] - Tenth liked her ivory coat. Also, Tenth felt that Eris had rather decisively helped out by scanning Solemnheart on the third day. She did not need to do that; and an Odious Eris could simply have lied and claimed that Solemnheart was a Shard. To be sure, given that the missing Shard was Mercy, perhaps this was not the best move, and yet Tenth did not at this point think that Eris was working with Odium. Mort [OOC: Amethyst Scorpion] - Tenth felt the enigmatic deathspren was not the easiest to read. But Mort had mentioned scanning Eris on the third day, thus confirming that Eris had in fact scanned Solemnheart. This gave Tenth a little more confidence in both Eris and Mort, given neither had known what the other was doing, though they could have easily mentioned it in passing to each other. This is the way. Onyx Flamingo - Tenth had a fairly positive read on the worldhopper who went by the codename of Flamingo. The Shard Preservation had clearly taken them into their trust, and had not yet died. Flamingo had also been fairly open about having spent the second and third nights on Ashyn. Overall, Flamingo appeared to be doing their best to help out. Vatorr Maj [OOC: Saffron Iguana] - while they differed in methods, it seemed from Shadesmar and from the day that Vatorr Maj appeared to be doing his best to tinker and hunt down the champions of Odium. The next table he sketched out in the sand as Kaikoa flapped her wings and squawked at the Kaddar scrawlings was UNSURE. NEED THOUGHT. Here, he wrote about those he was less certain of. Spoiler Mendra [OOC: Amber Vulture] - Tenth hadn't tried her culinary creations, but he thought that Mendra had been a little confused earlier about what the enemy faction was. He suspected that she could be playing it up; however, he didn't think it was as likely. She had also stacked on yet another vote on Ashao [OOC: Crocodile] on the first day, leaving Aurora to equalise. Her reasoning had so far seemed sensible. [OOC: Null, leaning Village.] Enoras [OOC: Coral Swan] - Sharp analysis, sensible, as far as Tenth was concerned. [OOC: Light Village.] Iadhain Ramer [OOC: Indigo Weasel] - Null. Pearl Chameleon - Tenth had divided thoughts about the worldhopper known by Pearl Chameleon. Neither Tenth, nor Flamingo, nor Drash had been attacked the third night, which meant that if they were to attribute it to Odium's kill, Chameleon had either been protected or was not a Shard. After all, Chameleon, Flamingo, Tenth and Drash had all been in the Rosharan system on the third night, and everyone knew that Odium's investee had slain Penguin - a cruel and senseless slaying, that. Which meant the second kill was highly likely to have been Odium's. For that reason, Tenth thought Chameleon was likely to be of Adonalsium and not a Shard. [OOC: Null, leaning Village. WGG can't be ruled out but IMO Chameleon would need to be more active to benefit from it. Also second kill was likely Odium's Shardic and thus had to be directed at someone in the Rosharan System since Odium was only unleashed D4. If neither Ruin nor me nor Flamingo got hit, then the only person is likely Chameleon. If they were a Shard, a hit from Odium would shatter them regardless of passive lives or protects, and this would be announced. So they must be a non-Shard.] Cream Tuatara - Null. Scarlet Octopus - It interested Tenth that this worldhopper had spent several nights in the Rosharan system without getting attacked. [OOC: Null.] Relas [OOC: Magenta Albatross] - Null. The Penguin had said Relas was chilling though, which Tenth appreciated. Sophos [OOC: Quartz Zebra] - Seemed to make some sensible points, if keeping to himself on Tenth's homeworld. Tenth wished him luck with his highstorm calculations. [OOC: Null, leaning Village. Plays like I did as a LG5 Elim but I don't really take that to be indicative. Also, sweet name. Sophos writes good reports.] KNOWN NEUTRALS, wrote Tenth, after this one. He added the names of Soren, Al, and Locke Tekiel to the list. Little more needed to be said at this juncture. And last came the Lord of Hate himself, Konion. Tenth looked at what he had written so far, and nodded to himself. That done, he set to the task of figuring out what he could do about Kaddar once the rains ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Hello! I come bearing useless news! (but hey, that's what the night is for right? who needs to say anything useful! *glances at post above* ...) Also I (hopefully not Illegally) used the post counter that Straw posted in some public channel. Meta Discussion? Getting Modkilled for that might be spicy. But I wanted to say that so that you all know to go kill him or whatnot if the counts are wrong Post counts!!! Spoiler Azure Mouse . . . . . . . .93 Violet Axolotl . . . . . . . .88 Opal Lion. . . . . . . . . . .79 Sapphire Elephant. . . .38 Ivory Dragonfly. . . . . . .28 Charcoal Hyena. . . . . .26 Quartz Zebra. . . . . . . . 24 Saffron Iguana. . . . . . . 22 Turquoise Gorilla. . . . . 22 Onyx Flamingo. . . . . . .21 Fuchsia Ostrich. . . . . . 19 Coral Swan . . . . . . . . . 17 Sage Kangaroo . . . . . .16 Melon Dingo . . . . . . . . 16 Amethyst Scorpion . . . 14 Magenta Albatross. . . .11 Amber Vulture. . . . . . . 10 Scarlet Octopus. . . . . . .5 Pearl Chameleon. . . . . .3 Indigo Weasel. . . . . . . . 3 Cream Tuatara. . . . . . . .2 I also put them all in a nice fun Graph!!! Spoiler Happy Worldhopping!!! (or staying in the same place if ur zebra I guess :/) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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