Fortune Explained

[Karger he/him]

Introduction

Fortune fortune fortune.  A go to explanation for phenomena that we have very little understanding of.  Azure mentions a "tide of fortune" in OB and is somewhat familiar with it thanks to her experiences with the returned, Odium mentions fortune when writing his diagram review.  Hoid uses fortune to be where he has to and a chromium ferring can store this attribute.  Finally we have oblique mention to fortune in the curse of kind of the sleepless.  Uneducated Cosmere groups consider fortune analogous to luck.  More experienced ones claim it is something else.

According to the coppermind.

Though the Spiritual Realm is always how future sight works in the cosmere,^[7] Fortune is not the exact same as the Spiritual Realm.^[5][1] Fortune is one way of accessing the Spiritual Realm. Every time one uses Fortune, they use the Spiritual Realm, but individuals can see into the Spiritual Realm without using Fortune.^[1]

From this we can know the following.  Fortune is a spiritual property that everyone has(like connection or identity) and using fortune seems to make certain events occur(although given Hoid's experiences it may just make them more probable).

Some Background

Let us take a step back and look and the three realms scientifically rather then mystically.  Basically lets observe what is happening on each realm when preforming a specific task.  Because it is convenient I am choosing to state that the task we are observing is the creation of a sword starting at iron ore.

Most fantasy nerds are somewhat familiar with the physical process.  You purify the iron or to get iron.  You take that iron and add carbon(and a few other things in the right quantities) to get steel.  You put that steel in the right shape to get a blade.  You add a hilt and sharpen(I know more detailed and complex sets of steps exist but lets keep this simple).

What is going on in the cognitive?  By my understanding each step creates a stronger and more complex cognitive image.  To most humans iron ore is just dirt.  Worse still it is a kind of dirt that is not particularly suited to plants or microorganisms.  As such iron ore probably does not look like much on the cognitive side unless a bunch of prospectors or minors are in the area.  When we identify the iron ore as useful its imprint in the cognitive side must jump dramatically.  The same thing will happen when we refine it as we know have a clear, identifiable, useful item.  Even laypeople will get it.  As such grabbing the bead on the cognitive side will give you a nice strong impression.  I don't think changing iron into steel changes the impact greatly.  On the other hand the flavor must be incredibly different.  The strength of the impression might not change much but its nature and maybe complexity probably will.  Finally the shaping.  I think here is where things get really interesting.  Shallan's experience that man made objects with refined purposes have extremely strong and unique cognitive selves.  A fully put together hand crafted sword has a sense of purpose.  I wonder how hard soulasting a historical weapon or artifact would be?

What happens in the spiritual realm when you go through the same process?  I am going to use linear time even though when speaking in the spiritual realm this is inaccurate.  Everything in the spiritual realm is made out of the 16 types of investiture.  Unrefined iron ore probably does not have any of Odium's or Devotion's investiture, it can't feel anything, but it certainly does have bits of Ruin's and Preservation's as it experiences both entropy and stasis.  This investiture is probably heightened considerably after the ore is refined.  Metal is in a highly ordered state but iron rusts away quite quickly.  Also since humans are now involved bits of the investiture from the more emotional shards starts to play a role.  People work with the iron so it will start to pull in some investiture from Devotion, humans use iron in business and empire so it pulls from Dominion, you hate your iron smelting job and you are pulling in some Odium. Then comes the shaping.  The shape you choose also alters the type of investiture pulled.  Metallic ink is used for recording and art so Endowment's investiture is possible.  Ceremonial artifacts are often made from metals so Honor's investiture is pulled. 

How does this relate to fortune?

My theory requires you to look at the world from the spiritual realm's perspective.  I know you have been conditioned to think about the future by probabilities but for this to really make sense you are going to have to drop that.  In the spiritual realm there really aren't probabilities the same way.  The "future" is instead determined by the interaction of fundamental impulses.  These impulses are called fortune.  For example when you take refined iron and shape it into a sword you are, according to the traditional framework we use, increasing the probability that this iron will be used destructively.  However at the spiritual level what you are doing is drawing a discreet and potentially measurable quantity of Ruin and Odium's fortune into the blade.  The altered probability is an effect not a cause. 

What this would explain.

This explains why Azure refers to fortune as a tide.  Rather then some kind of cool math telling Kaladin things he is just reacting to a sudden movement of fortune rushing toward Dalinar's location.  It also explains certain phenomena like evolution happening faster.

Spoiler

Quote

Questioner

Do the Purelakers get pruney feet because of the water? If not, is it because they have special feet or does it have to do with the magic fish?

Brandon Sanderson

They have adapted over time and they do not have magic feet. They have special feet, but they have adapted over time to the situation. Now, let's make the note that most natural selection does not work on the timescale of the cosmere and so there probably have to be some magical foundations for this. The fact that everyone on Roshar is Invested with a bit of Investiture more than average is going to push people over time in a way. Kind of the rationale I give myself on this is because Intent and these sorts of things are so important cosmerelogically that we get evolution on a faster scale in most of the cosmere. And so you can see this just by adaptations that have happened since the history of Roshar itself and the arrival of humans on Roshar and things like that.

YouTube Livestream 9 (May 28, 2020)

 

because Cultivation is present on Roshar and is leaking her kind of fortune skewing the odds of stuff happening this quickly.  It also offers a rational for the curse of kinds.  Bad luck does not make much sense but given Cultivation's intent is to shake things up so that things reach their full potential drawing her fortune will cause upheaval in your life especially over time.  Personal and societal growth often happen during times of calamity.  The curse of kind might really just be a bit of loose fortune drawn to locations.  Hoid does not know why he is going to a specific place.  He just follows a specific mixture of fortune that he believes will let him carry through on his mysterious goals(kind of like wayfinding). The returned get vague impressions they interpret as colors because of how weirdly placed they are relmatically and the fact they are super invested.  When storing fortune scadrians think they are storing luck because the things that cause great change, meeting someone getting a job application noticed, feel lucky when in fact they are your fortune pushing you forward(your capacity to grow and change and bond).  Finally atium shows you the most destructive action that you can take on short notice. 

 

Comments are welcome I am very must still work-shopping this.

Edited October 5, 2020 by Karger

[Frustration]

You know that sounds like something Brandon would do, specifically using a unorthodox philosophy on time/future.

[Karger he/him]

5 hours ago, Frustration said:

You know that sounds like something Brandon would do, specifically using a unorthodox philosophy on time/future.

Thank you.

[trav]

20 hours ago, Karger said:

Azure mentions a "tide of fortune"

for me, Fortune is nothing more than the "fortune" in fortunetelling. its precognition - by peaking into the spiritual realm. as there is no time you simply see the future/past/w/e.

as we know each time someone uses precognition it sends "ripples" outward.

not every action following on precognition will have an effect on someone elses action based on precognition. only if the ripples reach this far.

 

calling something a "tide" indicates that it will have a larger impact on the future/precognition.

 

 

[Karger he/him]

4 hours ago, trav said:

its precognition - by peaking into the spiritual realm. as there is no time you simply see the future/past/w/e.

Odium claims in OB that you can use prrecognition without fortune.

[ftl]

7 hours ago, Karger said:

Odium claims in OB that you can use prrecognition without fortune.

Wasn't that just him being "impressed" with what Taravangian figured out without fortune?

[Karger he/him]

13 minutes ago, ftl said:

Wasn't that just him being "impressed" with what Taravangian figured out without fortune?

Or the spiritual realm.  A latter WoB clarifies that fortune is a property(like identity or connection) that is always in the spiritual realm but you are not always using fortune when using the spiritual realm which in tern implies that you can use future sight without fortune.

[Frustration]

1 hour ago, Karger said:

Or the spiritual realm.  A latter WoB clarifies that fortune is a property(like identity or connection) that is always in the spiritual realm but you are not always using fortune when using the spiritual realm which in tern implies that you can use future sight without fortune.

I wouldn't necessarily say that

defiantburrito

Taravangian: On his "Special Day" where he created the Diagram, was he actually as smart as he thinks he was, or was something else going on? It seems suspicious that any level of raw intelligence would let him deduce all of that...

 

Brandon Sanderson

That sure IS suspicious, eh? Let's just say that HE believes it was rational deduction. But other theories are valid.

 

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/100/#e3532

[Karger he/him]

20 minutes ago, Frustration said:

I wouldn't necessarily say that

I meant this WoB

Quote

Chaos

Odium said to Taravangian, "You did this without access to Fortune or the Spiritual Realm?" How does one access Fortune without the Spiritual Realm or Feruchemical chromium, as almost all future sight tends to utilize the Spiritual Realm in some way?

Brandon Sanderson

So, that line is mostly just me saying... *long pause* I think you're picking apart those things too much.

Chaos

Right, that makes sense. Hey, Odium said it, so I didn't know-- Gotta take that seriously, so.

Brandon Sanderson

So, yeah, don't read too much into picking apart those two things. You can read it as-- Honestly, that is me making sure I am being clear in the text.

Chaos

That there are those are two different things.

Brandon Sanderson

Yeah those are two different things, but they are just interrelated. Fortune is a property, and the Spiritual Realm is a place, but not a place. Do you know what I mean? To use Fortune, you're always involving the Spiritual Realm, but in the Spiritual Realm, you're not always involving Fortune.

MisCon 2018 (May 26, 2018)

 

[Frustration]

5 minutes ago, Karger said:

I meant this WoB

 

I was referring to this:

2 hours ago, Karger said:

Or the spiritual realm.  A latter WoB clarifies that fortune is a property(like identity or connection) that is always in the spiritual realm but you are not always using fortune when using the spiritual realm which in tern implies that you can use future sight without fortune.

By saying this

27 minutes ago, Frustration said:

defiantburrito

Taravangian: On his "Special Day" where he created the Diagram, was he actually as smart as he thinks he was, or was something else going on? It seems suspicious that any level of raw intelligence would let him deduce all of that...

 

Brandon Sanderson

That sure IS suspicious, eh? Let's just say that HE believes it was rational deduction. But other theories are valid.

 

[Karger he/him]

22 minutes ago, Frustration said:

By saying this

An interesting point but not related to what I was talking about.  Taravangian may or may not have used magical means to see the future but Odium's comment stands either way.

[trav]

13 hours ago, Karger said:

Odium claims in OB that you can use prrecognition without fortune.

I think he was astonished that Taravangian was able to formulate a plan with such foresight seemingly without access to fortune or the Spiritual Realm.

foresight (by rational deduction) is not actual precognition even if it has a similar effect.

 

I still believe Fortune is just a glimpse of a possible future. you see a likely outcome, but it can still be altered. Renarins vision is an example of this. he only sees very likely possibilities.

[Karger he/him]

7 hours ago, trav said:

I still believe Fortune is just a glimpse of a possible future. you see a likely outcome, but it can still be altered. Renarins vision is an example of this. he only sees very likely possibilities.

But then how can you store it?  Are well all constantly glimpsing our futures but when we store fortune not?

[+Krox he/him]

2 hours ago, Karger said:

But then how can you store it?  Are well all constantly glimpsing our futures but when we store fortune not?

Aren't we all sort of always seeing what will happen next? If a ball is thrown you do know where it will land and how it is expected (ie. the most likely way) the bounce.
You could attribute that to deduction, but maybe if you were string Fortune you'd just be oblivious to cause and effect?

[Karger he/him]

58 minutes ago, Krox said:

Aren't we all sort of always seeing what will happen next? If a ball is thrown you do know where it will land and how it is expected (ie. the most likely way) the bounce.

But from that you know what is going to happen.  Your view is interesting but it fails to explain the experiences of Hoid and the Aimians.

[+Krox he/him]

I'm mostly intrigued by your idea, but I still struggle slightly to find your definition of Fortune. I don't feel like your post makes a clear definition. Fundamental impulses that causes change?

11 hours ago, Karger said:

But from that you know what is going to happen.  Your view is interesting but it fails to explain the experiences of Hoid and the Aimians.

While we might interpret how a ball will bounce for two or three bounces, Hoid might see the most likely few hundred bounces.
Aimians' Curse of Kind may be a complete lack of foresight in this manner, if you never can interpret the effect of your actions you are doomed to feel unlucky!

These are by far perfect analogies, and I'm not going to challenge your theory. But I do crave a more direct explanation of what your definiton of Fortune is!

[trav]

On 6.10.2020 at 4:20 PM, trav said:

its precognition - by peaking into the spiritual realm

 

17 hours ago, Karger said:

But then how can you store it?  Are well all constantly glimpsing our futures but when we store fortune not?

still a lot unexplained about the concept.

I guess you can store the ability to glimpse into the spiritual realm. if you do not posses the ability to peak into the spiritual realm you will not be able to store anything.

or a different concept. if you store peaking into the future (the spiritual realm) you are set back a bit in time for that amount. as in, you have to relive events that already unfolded and can only witness them, but not alter. if you want to know the future you have to spend some time in the past.

 

idk, just 2 things from the top of my head.

[Karger he/him]

8 hours ago, Krox said:

I'm mostly intrigued by your idea, but I still struggle slightly to find your definition of Fortune. I don't feel like your post makes a clear definition. Fundamental impulses that causes change?

So fortune from what we can tell is a spiritual property like identity or connection.  We both have some understanding of what those are but they are still difficult to understand.  Basically if you were to push a type of fortune into an object you would alter the probable course of that object's future.  Imagine putting every bit of Ruin's fortune you could get your hands on into a speck of dust.  That speck of dust would probably cause an enormous machine to brake down.

8 hours ago, Krox said:

While we might interpret how a ball will bounce for two or three bounces, Hoid might see the most likely few hundred bounces.

But he would still know where the ball was going.  He does not.

8 hours ago, Krox said:

Aimians' Curse of Kind may be a complete lack of foresight in this manner, if you never can interpret the effect of your actions you are doomed to feel unlucky!

But how can it also be contagious?  Axies doesn't stay in one place because other people around him become unlucky if he is there too long.

[+Krox he/him]

17 minutes ago, Karger said:

So fortune from what we can tell is a spiritual property like identity or connection.  We both have some understanding of what those are but they are still difficult to understand.  Basically if you were to push a type of fortune into an object you would alter the probable course of that object's future.  Imagine putting every bit of Ruin's fortune you could get your hands on into a speck of dust.  That speck of dust would probably cause an enormous machine to brake down.

So Fortune is your destiny? What is spiritually planned for you in your future? Charging something with Ruin's Fortune changes the destiny to be more "ruinous", charging something with Cultivation's Fortune makes it grow/develop, Honor makes it motivate honorable action etc.

 

42 minutes ago, Karger said:

But he would still know where the ball was going.  He does not.

He know where though, just not what/why?

 

43 minutes ago, Karger said:

But how can it also be contagious?  Axies doesn't stay in one place because other people around him become unlucky if he is there too long.

For that I have absolutely nothing! I forgot about the contagion...

[Karger he/him]

Just now, Krox said:

So Fortune is your destiny? What is spiritually planned for you in your future? Charging something with Ruin's Fortune changes the destiny to be more "ruinous", charging something with Cultivation's Fortune makes it grow/develop, Honor makes it motivate honorable action etc.

Basically.  Although your destiny is not set in stone.  It is just the most likely course heading based on your current trajectory.

1 minute ago, Krox said:

He know where though, just not what/why?

Hoid knows where to go but not why.

1 minute ago, Krox said:

For that I have absolutely nothing! I forgot about the contagion...

It happens.

[+Krox he/him]

14 hours ago, Karger said:

Basically.  Although your destiny is not set in stone.  It is just the most likely course heading based on your current trajectory.

Hm, I like it!

So Aimians are stalked by Fortune?

[trav]

17 hours ago, Karger said:

But he would still know where the ball was going.  He does not.

the further you look into the future the more likely it is that this future will get altered by "ripples" of other futuresight.

 

16 hours ago, Karger said:

Hoid knows where to go but not why.

when he sees a vision of himself somewhere he knows where hes supposed to be. that will never tell him why though.

 

17 hours ago, Karger said:

But how can it also be contagious?

foresight is not futuresight. one is knowing the other is predicting.

since I still believe fortune to be futuresight let me make a wild assumption.

the curse sucks futuresight from beings surrounding Axies away. which forces the consciousness of surrounding beings to exist slightly in the past. this would reduce reaction time ever so slightly. enough to make accidents more likely to occure, but not enough to be very noticable.

please don't read too much into this. just spitballing.

[Karger he/him]

6 hours ago, trav said:

the further you look into the future the more likely it is that this future will get altered by "ripples" of other futuresight.

So Hoid does sometimes not get to a place worthy of his presence and just leaves but in general he has absolutely no idea why he is where he ends up.

6 hours ago, trav said:

the curse sucks futuresight from beings surrounding Axies away. which forces the consciousness of surrounding beings to exist slightly in the past. this would reduce reaction time ever so slightly. enough to make accidents more likely to occure, but not enough to be very noticable.

That actually makes some sense.

[Innovation]

It is my belief the Fortune exists in a positive, negative, and neutral state. Positive Fortune is looking forward and making you “lucky.” Negative Fortune is the opposite: you could look to the past and are “unlucky.” Neutral Fortune is what all beings naturally possess. This is basically zero Fortune. 

However, we may have seen two, for a lack of a better word, “types” of Fortune. Focused and passive. Focused Fortune is Fortune that is directed, like “X does this to Y.” Passive Fortune is seen in chromium Feruchemy and the Siah Amians. It could be more defined as luck, and with good or bad things happening to you. This is what the Ire were talking about when they mentioned that Fortune is sometimes related to coincidences. 

Some examples:

The Returned: Positive focused. May be somewhat vague. 

Chromium Feruchemy: Positive (tapping) or negative (storing) passive. 

Sak: Positive focused. 

Atium: Positive focused. 

Fortune orb: Positive focused. Somewhat vague. 

Corrupted Truthwatcher: Positive focused. Seems to be rather detailed. 

Siah Amians: Negative passive

Shards: Positive, do potentially negative, focused. Accuracy may be based on Intent.

Focused Fortune seems to have varied levels of vagueness, ranging from incredibly accurate and clear to vague and only somewhat accurate. 

@Karger sorry for hijacking your thread to post my theory here.  

[Karger he/him]

5 minutes ago, Innovation said:

@Karger sorry for hijacking your thread to post my theory here.  

No problem.

5 minutes ago, Innovation said:

Negative Fortune is the opposite: you could look to the past and are “unlucky.” Neutral Fortune is what all beings naturally possess

Fortune is not luck though

Quote

The precise nature of Fortune and how it functions and is used, is currently unclear. Fortune has been described as "luck" by less cosmere-aware groups, such as the Terris three centuries after the Catacendre.^[3] However, it is clear from other individuals that are more cosmere-aware that Fortune is more than simple luck. It's a way of knowing things you would not know otherwise,^[4] and a way in which one can see the future.^[2] It is implied that Fortune is a thing one can access^[5] and draw upon.^[6] Someone drawing upon Fortune can lead to events that appear to be coincidences.^[6]

Also good and bad are really relative concepts.  I think for good reason there is no shard of good.