Did Renarin foul Odium's Kolinar plan?

[Karger he/him]

Most of us who have read Oathbringer were shocked at Renarin's abilities to see the future.  We latter learn that Renarin is the reason that Odium had trouble seeing parts of the future involving Dainar as their future sights canceled each other.  It has always seemed odd to me that Odium a supper powerful being who controlled nearly all aspects of the city including shadesmar, and the queen, was not capable of easily thwarting the mission in its entirety by knowing what the enemy was going to do and then countering it.  I think that chapter 44 provides the answer.  In this chapter third ideal Renarin tells Shallan that the best way to deal with Jasnah is avoiding her.  Kaladin was planning the mission prior to this conversation and Odium had a way to counter, him the singers he had traveled with as well as a system of besiegers capable of spotting and fighting a windrunner.  He knew the king was traveling their and ***ing Moash was also moved into position.  Shallan alludes this detection system discovers the oathgate sabotage and learns of a potential traitorous unmade in Odium's camp.  While the mission might be considered a failure by some it is hardly ideal for Odium.  He deployed a verity of his best forces and all he got out of it was the death of one new candidate for Radiance.  On the other hand his most important targets escaped with valuable intelligence  and a desire for revenge.  None of this would have happened without Shallan pressent and she would not have been their without Renarin's intervention.  Do you think Renarin was exercising some future sight to befuddle Odium's careful plans?

[Necessary Eagle she/her]

I don't think so, because Renarin's epiphany at the end was that the future could be changed. If he had a vision before the team left for Kholinar, he wouLd have assumed that things would play out exactly how he saw them, no matter what he did or didn't do.

[Karger he/him]

1 hour ago, Necessary Eagle said:

I don't think so, because Renarin's epiphany at the end was that the future could be changed. If he had a vision before the team left for Kholinar, he wouLd have assumed that things would play out exactly how he saw them, no matter what he did or didn't do.

He sees the future as a shattering window no?  He might have seen that futures with Shallan were better then futures without her.

[Varenus]

5 hours ago, Karger said:

While the mission might be considered a failure by some it is hardly ideal for Odium.  He deployed a verity of his best forces and all he got out of it was the death of one new candidate for Radiance.  On the other hand his most important targets escaped with valuable intelligence  and a desire for revenge.  None of this would have happened without Shallan pressent and she would not have been their without Renarin's intervention.  Do you think Renarin was exercising some future sight to befuddle Odium's careful plans?

A little off topic, but I’d like to point out that this mission was the focus of Dalinar’s hopes at retaking Alethkar. Winning this round earned Odium control over Dalina’s homeland(not to mention Jezrien’s hiding spot), nullified some of the Radians’ advantage in deactivating an Oathgate, and firmly planted Moash in Odium’s camp(who later killed said Herald). I would hardly say that Odium got nothing for his trouble, but you do have a point in that it could have been much worse.

Back on topic, I wonder how Sja-anat’s treachery plays into your theory.  She was essential in the escape of the remaining members of the mission and she does have a connection to Renarin. I do think that you are correct, that there is something going on beneath the surface.

Edited July 31, 2019 by Varenus

[Necessary Eagle she/her]

13 hours ago, Karger said:

He sees the future as a shattering window no?  He might have seen that futures with Shallan were better then futures without her.

I think the shattering window was someone else's analogy, maybe a shard's? I thought Renarin saw the future as a stained-glass window. I'll have to check the books when I get home.

[Karger he/him]

9 hours ago, Varenus said:

A little off topic, but I’d like to point out that this mission was the focus of Dalinar’s hopes at retaking Alethkar. Winning this round earned Odium control over Dalina’s homeland(not to mention Jezrien’s hiding spot), nullified some of the Radians’ advantage in deactivating an Oathgate, and firmly planted Moash in Odium’s camp(who later killed said Herald). I would hardly say that Odium got nothing for his trouble, but you do have a point in that it could have been much worse.

Odium had a verity of contingencies and made sure to do his oathgate and queen sabotage immediately.  These are moves that team Radiant did not realy have any way to counter no matter who was there.  Also Elohakar's conversation with Shallan helped him approach Radiance a move that almost saved his life(obligatory **** Moash).  If Renarin was guiding the future he was doing the best he could but that does not make him all powerful.

[Calyx]

I like this theory, but I would extend it to Sja-Anat, as @Varenus mentions. If Renarin has some future sight, surely she does as well - and I think this is much more likely to have been messing with Odium's specific plans, since Sja-Anat is actually in Kholinar and presumably knows what is going on.

Its possible that Renarin saw two different futures - one with Shallan there and one without - and nudged things towards the one that didn't end in everyone dying. But do we have any evidence that Renarin (or anyone else with future sight) sees multiple possibilities at once? 

[Karger he/him]

13 minutes ago, Calyx said:

Its possible that Renarin saw two different futures - one with Shallan there and one without - and nudged things towards the one that didn't end in everyone dying. But do we have any evidence that Renarin (or anyone else with future sight) sees multiple possibilities at once? 

Secret History Spoilers

Spoiler

Kelsier does it in secret history

 

14 minutes ago, Calyx said:

Renarin has some future sight, surely she does as well

What makes you say that?  Yes she altered his abilities but that does not mean she has those capabilities herself.

[Pathfinder]

Personally I think until the point Renarin realized the future could be changed, he was unconsciously changing it in tiny ways. Basically just the knowledge of something changes how you will react to it. That is the whole principle behind atium. Renarin seeing the future, regardless if in the short term his actions do not change anything, further down in ways he cannot predict he has changed other things. So for instance, whereas Renarin's goal about warning about the storm was to prevent it, and he failed, it could be argued his warning could have inadvertently driven Kaladin forward in his oaths by bringing Elhokar's near assassination to its head. It afforded Moash the perfect opportunity that he may not have taken when he did. Basically I am saying Renarin's future sight acted like the butterfly effect. The shear fact he could see it, changed things in tiny ways no one could predict. Now that he is conscious of his ability to change it, I think he will become more proactive. 

Edited July 31, 2019 by Pathfinder

[Elsecaller_17.5 he/him]

I think it’s likely, but I doubt it was intentional. Just a passive/natural affect much like Kaladin’s first lashings.

[Karger he/him]

7 hours ago, Truthwatcher_17.5 said:

I think it’s likely, but I doubt it was intentional. Just a passive/natural affect much like Kaladin’s first lashings.

How could this be passive?

[Elsecaller_17.5 he/him]

16 minutes ago, Karger said:

How could this be passive?

He has no control of the visions, they just happen. He doesn’t go and sit in his room saying “I’m going to have a vision to screw over Odium” it just happens. Ergo passive.

[Karger he/him]

9 hours ago, Truthwatcher_17.5 said:

He has no control of the visions, they just happen. He doesn’t go and sit in his room saying “I’m going to have a vision to screw over Odium” it just happens. Ergo passive.

I know he has no control over the visions.  My point was that he is using the visions to scew over Odium once he has them and that I think I have found an example.

[Pathfinder]

2 hours ago, Karger said:

I know he has no control over the visions.  My point was that he is using the visions to scew over Odium once he has them and that I think I have found an example.

And @Truthwatcher_17.5 was referring to the power itself. Renarin did not consciously activate it. That makes the effect passive. Whether or not Renarin acts on this information does not negate that the power itself is passive for most of the books. Now whether or not Renarin will learn how to use it more actively remains to be seen. 

As to whether Renarin knowingly urged Shallan to go with the intention of her being present confounding Odium, I do not personally think is the case. Renarin tried his best to warn of the storm in the only way he knew how, and the storm still came. He was genuinely shocked that the future could be changed with what happened to his father. Keep in mind, the most we have seen of Renarin trying to warn people of something was the coming storm, and he thought that didn't work. Otherwise he doesn't warn anyone of anything else he sees. He is trying to be a "normal" radiant. Focusing on trying to use lightweaving like Shallan. I do think because he saw the future, his unconscious actions, and reactions to the knowledge resulted in changes, but I do not think they were intentional. 

To illustrate. Lets say I knew someone was going to die of a disease that cannot be cured. I feel I cannot change the future. By result I could be distraught and upset or do my best to focus and enjoy the time I have left with that person. The people around me will notice this, and end up taking actions or doing things they would not have done originally. As result a totally unrelated scenario never comes to be. The person still dies of the disease. I still think I cannot change the future, but in the background a whole bunch of stuff has changed. A number of things I will not notice, till everything comes together, and suddenly a massively different outcome occurs. At least that is how I read what was happening with Renarin. Now where things will go now that he realizes he can change things, I do not know, but I can't wait to find out!