The Great Betrayal in the next book

[Kon-Tiki he/him]

Every lie Dalinar tells in OB comes back to bite him. Honestly not even just the lies, but the information he withholds. Honesty is an important part of Honor. You can substitute the word "integrity" for "honesty" if you like, but the KRs in general and Dalinar most specifically are going to have a hard time deceiving their way to defeating Odium. Even Shallan's lies are hard for her, and her oaths are Truths, not lies.

[Diomedes]

5 minutes ago, Calderis said:

You can't expect those children to believe you if you intentionally mislead them though. 

Not if they expect to be mislead in this regard.

Saying you believe in God, while actually you probably don`t, is the unspoken rule of Alethi high society. 

Saying outright you deny the existance of god is a declaration of war to the Vorin church. That could have been avoided by saying you still believe in the Almighty, he just changed. That is what he meant by "dying".

If you want to win a game you have to play by its rules.  

[Weltall]

18 minutes ago, Diomedes said:

That could have been avoided by saying you still believe in the Almighty, he just changed. That is what he meant by "dying".

This is pretty much exactly what Dalinar does. He doesn't announce announce that he's stopped believing in the Almighty per se, he's even got a firmer foundation for believing in his existence because he's actually seen him and heard his voice. It's just that what Vorinism teaches about the Almighty has been distorted by thousands of years of false belief and continuing to propagate those false beliefs would do far more harm than good. That was one of the main points of his conversation with Kadash about tradition.

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If you want to win a game you have to play by its rules.  

Your problem is that you assume 'the rules' are a constant when as the books go to great lengths to show us, the nature of the game itself is changing as everyone is playing it. Sadeas' ultimate downfall came from failing to realize that the game had fundamentally changed by the end of Words of Radiance and kept trying to play the game of poliical intrigue. Remember how well that ended for him?

Edited December 9, 2018 by Ookla the Gralsritter

[Diomedes]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Gralsritter said:

Your problem is that you assume 'the rules' are a constant when as the books go to great lengths to show us, the nature of the game itself is changing as everyone is playing it. Sadeas' ultimate downfall came from failing to realize that the game had fundamentally changed by the end of Words of Radiance and kept trying to play the game of poliical intrigue. Remember how well that ended for him?

Sadeas was assassinated by Adolin, who could not contain his rage. Not because the rules of the game changed. Sadeas miscalculated what kind of man Adolin was and died because of it. 

 

4 minutes ago, Ookla the Gralsritter said:

This is pretty much exactly what Dalinar does. He doesn't announce announce that he's stopped believing in the Almighty per se

He is openly questioning the existance of the Almighty, like Jasnah : 

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Dalinar: "Offer me proof of what you say." Kadash: "you shoud not need proof the Almighty. You sound like your niece." D.:  "I`ll take that as acompliment." p. 180

I does not need to go about this the way he does. 

 He could say: I know deep in my heart the Almighty exists but the story that we have been telling ourselves is proably not true. 

I know we as readers are cheering for Dalinar because Jasnah is cool and now Dalinar is like Jasnah. But you can`t declare war on the Vorin church during the Apocalypse. He can`t afford that fight right now. 

[Calderis he/him]

1 minute ago, Diomedes said:

Sadeas was assassinated by Adolin, who could not contain his rage. Not because the rules of the game changed. Sadeas miscalculated what kind of man Adolin was and died because of it. 

Adolin snapped because Sadeas expected him to value the codes of war more highly than the lives of his men and family. 

Adolin did nothing wrong. 

2 minutes ago, Diomedes said:

I know we as readers are cheering for Dalinar because Jasnah is cool and now Dalinar is like Jasnah. But you can`t declare war on the Vorin church during the Apocalypse. He can`t afford that fight right now. 

Dalinar is nothing like Jasnah. He still believes in God without question. He just doesn't believe that Honor was God. 

He absolutely can and should go against the church, if the church is proposing information that is not going to serve them well. They can't rely on help from the Heralds because the Heralds abandoned them. He can't rely on help from the Almighty, because they've already received all the help he is capable of offering. 

The church is willing to sit back and rely on faith from the ardentia to fix the problems, a d what's needed is action. Anything that Dalinar does that is effective is going to rely on reasoning that the church finds heretical. Dalinar can either own that, or lie and have those lies used against him later. 

Add in the antiquated gender roles that Vorinism holds to, and the way things have to change with the emergence of the Radiants and the sprens complete disregard for gender norms or national religious tendencies, and the church needs to go, one way or another. 

[Weltall]

2 hours ago, Diomedes said:

Sadeas was assassinated by Adolin, who could not contain his rage. Not because the rules of the game changed.

Sadeas was trying to play the political game by the political rules. He completely failed to realize that his little plots were suddenly rendered completely irrelevant by the coming of the Everstorm. If Adolin hadn't murdered him, someone else eventually would have in order to get him to stop undermining everyone else, or he would have done something to get himself killed not unlike what Amaram eventually did. He could have reassessed the situation and realized that suddenly there were things much more important than his personal desire to take the throne and at the very least, put those on temporary hold. He didn't. The Vorin church is in a similar situation, with beliefs that do not match reality and where continuing to rely on those beliefs (or allowing them to continue unchallenged) would do far more harm than good.

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But you can`t declare war on the Vorin church during the Apocalypse. He can`t afford that fight right now. 

As already noted repeatedly, the church is sticking its collective head in the sand and hoping that the Heralds will arrive, wave a magic wand and make everything better. We know that's not happening and Dalinar knows that's not happening. If you're going to confront the biggest crisis Roshar has ever seen, you can't have a massive and respected organization run around telling everyone a message that you know is counterproductive without at least challenging it, otherwise you just get division and Team Honor can.afford that far less than Dalinar can afford to have the Ardentia annoyed with him for questioning their beliefs.

[Steel Inquisitive he/him]

I'm confused. Are the ardents warriors? I thought they were priests/scholars. As such, what exactly are you thinking they are going to do?

As I recall, most of Navani's fabrial scientists are ardents. And they are actively working on the city-fabrial problem. The moment the dawnchant was cracked they began to translate like madmen. (Granted what they found wasn't helpful.) 

As I see it, they ARE fighting the desolation.

[Diomedes]

5 hours ago, Calderis said:

Adolin snapped because Sadeas expected him to value the codes of war more highly than the lives of his men and family. 

Adolin did nothing wrong

That is a discussion worthy of its own thread. Let me just say: Lying once is immoral but murdering somebody is not? Either the ends justify the means or they don`t. 

 

5 hours ago, Calderis said:

Dalinar is nothing like Jasnah. He still believes in God without question. He just doesn't believe that Honor was God. 

 Kadash was comparing Dalinar to Jasnah, and Dalinar agreed. So yes he is a bit like Jasnah. He does not believe in god "without question" he wants proof. 

 

 

5 hours ago, Calderis said:

The church is willing to sit back and rely on faith from the ardentia to fix the problems, a d what's needed is action. Anything that Dalinar does that is effective is going to rely on reasoning that the church finds heretical. Dalinar can either own that, or lie and have those lies used against him later.

 

2 hours ago, Ookla the Gralsritter said:

As already noted repeatedly, the church is sticking its collective head in the sand and hoping that the Heralds will arrive, wave a magic wand and make everything better. We know that's not happening and Dalinar knows that's not happening.

As I noted previously I don`t see any evidence that the church does actually believe that just sitting and waiting for the herald does solve all problems. We are indeed going in circles here.   

2 hours ago, Ookla the Gralsritter said:

If Adolin hadn't murdered him, someone else eventually would have in order to get him to stop undermining everyone else, or he would have done something to get himself killed not unlike what Amaram eventually did.

This is not how politics work. You just murder your enemies and everything will be fine. Sadeas was operating on a power base, that was still around after he had been murdered. Other guys like Amaram and Ialai merely took his place. If they had been murdered others would step up. You don`t win until you deprieve the base of its power. Besides every kind of crime can be justified with "another one would have done it." I think this line of thinking is deeply problematic. 

To put it differently what is the worst thing Sadeas could have done? a) bring his House under the control of Odium. Exactly that did happen. b.) bring all non Kholin loyalist Houses under the control of Odium. This is about to happen.  

@Steel Inqusitive"I'm confused. Are the ardents warriors? I thought they were priests/scholars. As such, what exactly are you thinking they are going to do?"

The Ardents are a powerful group in Alethkar. Not every kind of power is military power. This is why military coup d`etats are not always succesful. They lack the legitimacy bestowed upon them by traditional, legal or charismatic forces. The ardents are a hugly important source for legitimacy of power. If Dalinar`s rule lacks legitimacy nobody is going to follow his orders.  They can also directly influence people to act against Dalinar. I think the ardents played a huge role in turning Amaram. As I have noted peviously. 

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by Diomedes

[Calderis he/him]

5 minutes ago, Diomedes said:

That is a discussion worthy of its own thread. Let me just say: Lying once is immoral but murdering somebody is not? Either the ends justify the means or they don`t. 

It has nothing to do with the ends justifying the means and everything to do with the legal structure of Alethi society. The only legal way to bring an end to Sadeas would have been war between the Highprinces. You cannot expect justice in an unjust system. 

7 minutes ago, Diomedes said:

Kadash was comparing Dalinar to Jasnah, and Dalinar agreed. So yes he is a bit like Jasnah. He does not believe in god "without question" he wants proof. 

No, he absolutely believes there is god, he just doesn't believe that Honor was it. In his own words, WoR ch. 4

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“God isn’t dead. If the Almighty died, then he was never God, that’s all.”

 

11 minutes ago, Diomedes said:

To put it differently what is the worst thing Sadeas could have done? a) bring his House under the control of Odium. Exactly that did happen. b.) bring all non Kholin loyalist Houses under the control of Odium. This is about to happen.  

I don't believe it will be anything near that clean cut. 

[Diomedes]

9 minutes ago, Calderis said:

It has nothing to do with the ends justifying the means and everything to do with the legal structure of Alethi society. 

 

You said "Adolin did nothing wrong". That is an ethical statement that has nothing to do with alethi legal systems and everything with your moral evaluation. 

 

9 minutes ago, Calderis said:

The only legal way to bring an end to Sadeas would have been war between the Highprinces

Or you do it like Gavilar and play the game of politics. That involves lying.  

Edited December 10, 2018 by Diomedes

[Kon-Tiki he/him]

Assuming that Alethkar as a legal unit will continue to even exist as-is might be generous. Aladar, Kholin, and Sebarial's houses have all pretty much moved to Urithiru. Vamah and Thanadal are camping out in the Shattered Plains still, and could maybe be persuaded to do something. Its worth noting, however, that Thanadal's forces are largely mercenary. Roion's a mess because their highprince just died and the new highprince is a child. Hatham appears to be making a killing exchanging dun spheres for lit ones and accepts the title of Highprince of Works, so he's economically tied to Team Dalinar, like it or not. Ruthar and Bethab don't have a lot of information, beyond us knowing that Ruthar enthusiastically supported Sadeas while he was alive and Bethab is at least in Urithiru. Speaking of Sadeas, the Sadeas forces are nonexistent and they've just run through two widely discredited regents. Alethkar itself is overrun. And oh by the way, the Kholins still control 1/4 of the deadblades and plate in Alethkar and all of the KRs. What few highprinces who might be minded to abandon the unified Alethkar (Thanadal, Vamah, maybe Ruthar, maybe-but-doubtfully Bethab, and the remnants of Sadeas) don't really have the resources or the motivation to deal with the Kholins in any real direct manner.

[Steel Inquisitive he/him]

@DiomedesMy main point  was that the ardents aren't a military force and are fighting Odium in their own way. Please note, you can be anti-Dalinar and still be anti-Odium. You can be anti-Dalinar and still be pro-radiants. You can be anti-Dalinar and still be pro-honor.

Dalinar is a tyrant. As stated in the books. Roshar NEEDS someone to tell him no. Or he'll just keep reaching for more power. Anytime people have given Dalinar a little bit of power, he seizes complete control.

I'm hoping Kaladin wrestles Head of the Radiants away from Dalinar.

@Calderis that's what I thought Dalinar believed! I couldn't remember if that was a thought I had or was actually in the book.

[Calderis he/him]

@Diomedes morality is subjective. What is "right" in one person's eyes will not be in another. Personally, I fully agree with what Adolin did, just as I agree with Jasnah's actions in the alley. My sense of morality is rather flexible. 

For Dalinar though, none of that would have been right, and lying about his convictions wouldn't be either. 

[Jace21 he/him]

 

 

On 12/9/2018 at 7:38 AM, Diomedes said:

No they were not asking him to accept the Almighty as all-powerful etc., they are not expecting for somebody to save them. I`d like you to read chapter 16 of OB from Kadash`s perspective. He is in Dalinar`s eyes

"gentle understanding model of everything good about the Vorin church. (p.178),"

and Dalinar manages to horrify even him. Kadash does not ask him to accept all of Vorin teachings or that the Almighty is going to come and save everybody. The book never says that the ardents believe that! Kadash merely asks 

   The only thing Dalinar needs to do is saying that he does not believe in the doctrin of omnipotence he does not believe that the Almighty is going to save everyone, but he does believe in his existance. This is btw. true, since shards like spren technically never die, they just transition between different planes of existance. 

You seem to be misunderstanding the basis of Dalinar's problems with the church. Following spoilered for length:

Spoiler

Dalinar accepts the existence of the Almighty, as shown in the conversation with Kadash you quoted he says:

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"I accept that there was a being, once, named Honor - the Almighty. He helped us and I would welcome his help again. If you can prove to me that Vorinishm as it currently stands is what the Heralds taught, we will speak again"

he says it even more clearly earlier in the books after his wedding when he says 

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"Honor might be dead, but I have felt... something else. Something beyond. A warmth and a light. It is not that God has died, it is that the Almighty was never God."

So he acknowledges the existence of the Almighty, just not that he is "God". That distinction between godlike being and God with a capital G seems to imply that the traditional view of the Almighty has the traditional attributes of God, omnipotent, omniscient etc. 

And this is what he ends up being excommunicated for:

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"Dalinar Kholin," the ardent said, louder. "The council of curates declares you a heretic. We cannot tolerate you insistence that the Almighty is not God. You are hereby proclaimed excommunicate and anathema."

So a simple statement of "I believe the Almighty exists/isn't dead won't help. He needs to accept him as God. A key part of Vorinism is about the fight between Voidbringers and Honor and his Heralds. So yes, the Ardents would wait to be saved, it is a key part of their religion.

 

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The book never states that the ardents would be that foolhardy. They would say: Oh look a desolation is here. Apperantly the Almighty does not deem us worthy of defending. Let us rally around the Knights Radiant, who can. Maybe we will be worthy again in the future. Dalinar`s attempts have been barely sucessfull, as I tried to show in this thread partly because the ardents are opposing him and his cause. The two are linked. We do not yet know of their machinations against his cause, but I have no doubts that they are there. Maybe they played a crucial role in convincing Amaram to betray Dalinar. This happens off screen, but it would be very likely that the religious zealot Amaram, who wants to restore the power of the Vorin church to its full glory, would listen to the ardents. 

You think a group of religious leaders, who's faith is based on the historical fact that when desolation happen they are helped by their God and his Heralds, would just shrug away them being abandoned and get on with it? What is far more likely is that when they see a clear desolation happening with no divine help is a complete religious collapse, causing complete chaos in the Vorin kingdoms when they need to be united. Dalinar has got them united first, an important step that should help them stay strong when the Ardents eventually realise Dalinar was right the whole time.

Sure it is not known for sure that they would suggest persecuting the Radiants and waiting for the Heralds to save them, it seems reasonable since it is what they have believed for the last 4500 years.

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A skilled politician makes sure he persuades people to his side, not give them good reasons to become his bitter enemies. 

How would such a thing come out? I guess that many Highprinces do not actually believe in the Almighty. They just claim they are that everybody is happy. This is the solemn arrangment of Alethi high society. You give the ardents what they want and they let you do whatever you want. Dalinar broke that arrangement, because he can`t bring himself to tell a single lie. 

It would come out eventually because it is true. Spren know it, so it stands to reason that the knowledge would come out as more people are bonded. Your guess about the Alethi elite may be true, but seems more likely not to be. We know for a fact that Gavilar, Amaram, Shallan and Dalinar believe in the Almighty, Elhokar seems to, even Sadeas seems to. The only member of the elite that we know doesn't is Jasnah, a noted exception. As I said above there is also the issue that the Heralds lied and said they had defeated the Voidbringers and would go to reclaim the Tranquiline Halls. To most people another desolation, and one without the Heralds, implies that the Almighty/Heralds lost and can't/won't help any more, leaving humans alone to fight beings capable of killing their God and his most powerful servants. They are not going to just say "Nevermind let's turn to the knights we were preaching as evil traitors 10 minutes ago".

By providing an alternative to abandonment or God's defeat, even something as extreme as "The Almighty wasn't God" Dalinar provides an alternative to chaos when the truth finally comes out.

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This hinges on the assumption that Odium`s chances of winning decreace drastically in the next book. I don`t see that happening. He might change sides in later books. In the next book he is Odium`s servant. This is all that matters for my prediction.         

Did you read the possibilities I gave? I must not have been as clear as I though, literally none of them, require the chance of winning to increase. They require either Odium to betray what T wants, stupid compassionate T to be stupid and compassionate, or the Diagram to be secretly working for the good guys all along. None of those require Odiums chance of winning to decrease.

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To put it differently what is the worst thing Sadeas could have done? a) bring his House under the control of Odium. Exactly that did happen. b.) bring all non Kholin loyalist Houses under the control of Odium. This is about to happen.  

a.) his House isn't under the control of Odium. Amaram and the troops with him, sure. But we have no evidence the Ialai, the people with her at Urithiru or the people from the Sadeas Princedom in Alethkar are in any way affiliated with Odium.

b.) It seems possible, not even probable, that some, Houses may resist Dalinar. But at the same time Dalinar now has the backing, at least in public, of 3 houses, Jah Keved, Thaylenar, Azir and all known Knights Radiant. Even if they hate him they may go with it rather than oppose a powerful coalition in the face of a clear desolation going on.

c.) There are other option. Sadeas could have united the non-Kholin houses as a solid kingdom and wasted their strength conquering other nations instead of negotiating, for example, leading to certain doom.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Ookla the Mind Sculptor

[TousenShadowForged he/him]

The "betrayal" will come from Shallan most likely