Long Game 49/Anonymous Game 3: Window to the Past

[Cream Tuatara]

RIP Elhokar. All hail Queen Jasnah  

Hello; I apologise for my inactivity near the end of last cycle and at the beginning of this one, that was simply some bluetext problem regarding devices I have fixed.  I was procastinating the whole first half of last cycle to post (I didn’t), though I did make a few PMs.

Anyway, regarding where I’ve been this game and the circles I’ve been in, I can confidently say that after the initial mess of conspiring in the beginning cycles, I kind of dropped out of most of them.

My first wincon was to Gossip against Ialai.  This could mean either Gossiping a vote to her or Gossiping her own vote.  I talked this down with her and she agreed, and I got introduced to that beginning Women’s circle. I think I Gossiped Klade’s(?) vote onto her eventually.

Next, my wincon was to Charm and act against two members of secret societies. I Charmed and acted against Liss (sorry I roleblocked you) and Charmed and acted against Gavilar (no I didn’t kill him, I just roleblocked him). All this time, there was really no need for me to be working with others to achieve my goals, so I wasn’t involved in any real circles.

Then, my wincon was to study an object with unknown properties. This was when I worked with Gavilar and Jasnah to scan the Black Sphere. After that, my wincon was to destroy the Unmade, which we did. Now I have two wincons: Prevent the Desolation (which I think most people have) and my second wincon, which I’m not telling, though I have told a few in PMs.

I know this may seem like a bit much to just dump it all here, but I think it’s nice to have a straight record of all the things I’ve done this game, so I can say what I did on any given cycle.

Also, I don’t know of you know, but I have been crazy inactive in my docs. Like, I can’t remember the last time I posted in them.

Also, Wit’s Broam idea sounds reasonable, and I can’t believe I’m saying that  

Edited October 23, 2018 by SE_Navani_Kholin

[Onyx Flamingo]

Just to add on to what Adolin said, in the 6 turns I was outside the palace, I didn't have actions available to me each turn.  I mentioned to a few of you the 50% attack option I had (which for the people just learning this, no I didnt use it).  That was after a couple turns of having no action available.  So I think that was the reason.  It is also difficult to successfully vote on an aggressive action.

Most of the actions available seem to augment actions inside the palace rather than doing things themselves, though it is possible she happened to land on a turn when she had a kill action.  Though I doubt it has a higher chance than her actual attack ability.

 

I completely forgot I was roleblocked that turn... I assumed Wit did it... Navani, you even knew I was just trying to item spy you that turn for my wincon. : /

Though I managed to complete it while I was ostracized... So I guess no harm done...

Edited October 23, 2018 by SE_Liss

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

So I have a few Ideas of possible ways to stop the desolation, but unfortunately, all of them involve losing some or part of a group of players. So far, I haven't acted on any of these ideas.

1. Kill the parshendi. With no parshendi, who will there be to start a desolation?
2. Kill the Heralds. Perhaps after they are killed, they return to help Taln(?)(I can't remember if it's him holding off the desolation, or another)
3. Kill off all of the SoH. Tearim has confessed that he had something to do with them. But he also confessed that that win condition is null and void.
4. After reading the thread this morning, the last idea popped into my head. Kill any corrupt spren. Unfortunately, the only one of those is someone with whom I am bonded, Said bond gives me better chances of many useful actions. 

I have no idea which I believe is more likely, and If anyone else has other ideas, please suggest them as well. I know that most of us seem to have the win condition to stop the desolation, but we all have different knowledge, so maybe none of my ideas are actually correct. 

[Cream Tuatara]

Okay, so I’ve taken Liss’ list and modified it so we can just see who remains real quick and maybe use some POE.

Spoiler

1.Tearim

2. Navani

3. Ialai

4. Jasnah

5. Ivory

6. Adolin

7. Wit

8. Liss

9. Beggar

10. Ash

11. Kelek

12. Klade

It may seem too quick but I’m going to say the Heralds aren’t the murderers. Kelek seems like he’s spending most of his time trying to protect, Ash has been too inactive, and Beggar His Excellency Jezrien, well, I don’t really have a case for him, but I doubt he’s either the Parshendi-Peccant or the Kholin-Killer (yes I made names for them). As for killing the Heralds stopping the Desolation, it has to be said the Heralds/Oathpact only stopped the Desolations from starting (unless one of them gave in). When the Desolations had already started, killing the Heralds would not do anything. I don’t think it will do anything here either.

I’m also eliminating Liss, Wit and myself. Myself because I’m myself, Liss because she seems to have a good alibi where she’s been these few cycles, she seems innocent and I can’t see why she’d want to kill either Parshendi or Kholins, and Wit because he genuinely seems like he has a neutral rolw this whole game (helping others achieve wincons) and I don’t see why he’d suddenly change to a genocidal maniac.

Is Klade even active? I don’t think so, and even if he was, I don’t think he would be traitorous enough to kill his own people. As for killing the Kholins, I think he’d be too inactive to do so. As for killing Parshendi to stop the Desolation, it could be a possibility, I don’t know. If we want to find out, all we have to is not protect Klade and hope our Parshendi-Peccant gets him to test our theories  

Current List:

1.Tearim

2. Ialai

3. Jasnah

4. Ivory

5. Adolin

Taking away Adolin, Jasnah and Ivory. Ivory has no reason to kill the Parsh or the Kholins, and I don’t think killing him will do any bad for the Desolation, either. Remember, he’s not a corrupted spren. He’s a Radiant Spren, but not corrupted. Adolin for the most part seems to be backed up by a lot of people, has no reason to attack Kholins, maybe Parshendi but people backing him up negates my suspicions. Jasnah is mainly for the same reasons.

List:

1. Tearim

2. Ialai

I would normally say it’s Ialai. At the beginning of the game she had a wincon to lead a lynch against a Kholins, who’s to say she doesn’t have a more deadly anti-Kholin wincon now. But I remembered she’s been having her 4 Cooperation wincon to deal with now so there would be no time for her to kill. I’ll still leave this discussion on her, though.

And here’s where my suspicions begin to surface.  Tearim’s connected to the SoH, he says the wincon’s null now, but we only have his word on it. Even then, his security-themed wincons could have something to do with killing the Parahendi, seeing as though as soon as they enter all hell breaks loose. I think it’s Tearim who’s to blame here, by POE.

Edited October 23, 2018 by SE_Navani_Kholin

[Sage Kangaroo]

I'm sort of active right now. I agree with Navani's suspicion of Tearim. I was, apparently, attacked last night.

[Plum Rhinoceros]

5 hours ago, SE_Tearim said:

@SE_Ialai_Sadeas my win con is to keep the Heralds alive. I told @SE_Kelek last turn about this in our PM. Along those lines, I Protected Beggar last turn.

I have no idea how to start or stop the Desolation, but I know it has to do with the Heralds somehow (good or bad).

I can confirm this. I can also confirm that Ialai has an alibi, and I at least mostly trust her.

Edited October 23, 2018 by SE_Kelek

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

3 hours ago, SE_Jasnah_Kholin said:

4. After reading the thread this morning, the last idea popped into my head. Kill any corrupt spren. Unfortunately, the only one of those is someone with whom I am bonded, Said bond gives me better chances of many useful actions. 

I should correct myself. The only spren is someone I'm bonded to. But after a discussion via PM with someone I have reduced the likelihood that Ivory is corrupt to a very low possibility. 

2 hours ago, SE_Navani_Kholin said:

Is Klade even active? I don’t think so, and even if he was, I don’t think he would be traitorous enough to kill his own people. As for killing the Kholins, I think he’d be too inactive to do so. As for killing Parshendi to stop the Desolation, it could be a possibility, I don’t know. If we want to find out, all we have to is not protect Klade and hope our Parshendi-Peccant gets him to test our theories  

That might seem like a decent idea. I don't like watching people get killed unnecessarily, but I think I am going to follow Navani's actions, and vote Tearim, while hoping the parshendi peccant gets Klade. That gets rid of two of the possibilities that I had, and only leaves the second option, which is that the Heralds must be killed. Which is what Tearim is trying to prevent. Which further suggests that Maybe Tearim knows how to not prevent the desolation and is trying to make that happen.

[Indigo Weasel]

The one thing I'm worrying about is that killing the parshendi will trigger the desolation, and we're supposed to protect them.

Edit: but I'll have to agree that tearim seems to be the most likely person to be up to no good. Still, if the person that roleblocked Ialai could either claim in thread, or shoot me a PM, it'd help clear up a little paranoid theory of mine that I'd love to get rid of.

Edited October 23, 2018 by SE_Ivory

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Quote

The lack of a player list makes this difficult, but I'll just grab all of the alive people from Liss.

Tearim - I trust that Tearim has a win condition to protect the Heralds. I know I don't have anything that supports the desolation, so I'm going to guess that that's in general a good win condition.
Navani Kholin - Eh. Similar situation as Jasnah, I suppose? 
Ialai Sadeas - Seems good.
Jasnah Kholin/Ivory - I feel like everybody is trusting Ivory based solely on his role in canon. I don't think that this is enough, and near as I can tell nobody is really working with him (other than Jasnah, probably.) I'm personally actually moderately suspicious of them just because nobody seems to be able to vouch for them but everyone seems to be trusting them. If anyone can vouch for them, let me/the thread know. 
Adolin Kholin - Has an alibi for last cycle. 
Wit - Working with me. Pretty trustworthy.
Liss - Um... I'm honestly not sure. Seems alright, I guess.
Drunk Beggar - Worked with me a lot, and has an alibi for last cycle. Not complete trust, but I'm reasonably confident that they are good.
Ash - Worked with me, but also pretty inactive now. Not as much trust as Beggar, but a decent amount just based off of being a Herald.
Kelek - Kelek is as trustworthy as it gets.
Klade - :shrug: Parshendi, so probably not the Parshendi Peccant.

Kelek shook in fear. It may not have been their first option, but the people were discussing the possibility of killing the Heralds. I... I can't go back to Damnation. That horrible, horrible place. No man should have to be there. The fact that Nale had died was bad enough-he was far more likely to break than Taln, especially after so long without being back there. Killing the other Heralds would only make it worse. This can not end with the Heralds dead.

[Onyx Flamingo]

"Ialai, I apologize for overlooking an entry on you....

Ialai -- I have been told the results of item and action spies on Ialai relatively recently, and did not see anything unusual.  Beyond that, I have had much communication with her the entire game about our actions and so forth.  And beyond that, 2-3 of the last several turns we have been trying to work together on her wincon. So she has good alibis for the last couple turns.  Based on all of this, I am sure it is understandable that I forgot you existed Ialai, it is not like I have had anything to do with you since the game began or anything... :P"

@SE_Kelek, @SE_Navani_Kholin, an issue I have is that in their own lists, people just claim they are trustworthy.  I would much prefer people give reasons as to why they are trustworthy.

 

Edited October 23, 2018 by SE_Liss

[Emerald Falcon]

Quote

I tried to think of a ‘killer’ synonym beginning with p to round out the alliteration, but couldn’t find any. Peccant works splendidly.

I’ve been thinking a lot over this, and I’ve actually decided that I should stop trusting people based on their canon roles. (I realise other people have also said this.) As such, I’m instead going to rely on alibis that I know firsthand. Liss, Drunk Beggar, me and Kelek are all cleared. People I Don’t Have Alibis For:

1. Tearim
2. Navani
3. Jasnah/Ivory
4. Wit
5. Ash - I’m ruling them as inactive. If you’re online, get in touch, sil vous plait.
6. Klade - probably isn’t the Parshendi Peccant, but has a fair chance of being the Kholin Killer. I’m fine with this problem just sorting itself out. Sorry Klade.

I’m also not clearing Adolin until I get a PM back from him, but that’s just me being paranoid. It’s probably fine - unless they killed Aesudan in order to get the Black Sphere for their own nefarious purposes, we can trust them. (On the other hand, if they killed Aesudan in order to get the Black Sphere for their own nefarious purposes... )

If Navani, Jasnah, Ivory, and Wit send a PM outlining their alibis for the last two turns so I can doublecheck them, that would be excellent.

 

[Cream Tuatara]

2 hours ago, SE_Liss said:

  I would much prefer people give reasons as to why they are trustworthy.

I literally made this to be a giant alibi for what I’ve been doing the entire game  

[Emerald Falcon]

Quote

That alibi clears you all the way up until Aesudan’s death. It certainly doesn’t explain what you were doing when the murders happened, unfortunately. What have you been doing since then?

 

[Cream Tuatara]

Quote

(I will switch to quote-boxes)

Ok, that clears me all the way up to cycle 8.25, where we killed the Unmade. Cycle 8.5 I was given two actions. I tried Speaking to Preist and Drinking, Speaking to Priest failed.

At Cycle 9 I did not make an action, as I said I was pretty inactive near the end of that. I did, however, request Ivory to give me access into Shadesmar.

Now, Ivory can send an Invitation to Shadesmar. It takes an action to use it and you need to sacrifice a doc. So in Cycle 9.5 I sacrificed the Loading Dock doc (probably the most inactive doc in the game ) and used my action to accept the invite.

 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Quote

Wit told me that he protected someone, and I trust him. I can vouch for him.

 

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

I guess I'm the queen now. Jasnah thought. How unorthodox and backwards this feast ended up being. Jasnah had been kind to the Parshendi, and perhaps if two of them weren't dead now at the hand of the humans at the party, then the treaty could be salvaged. Unfortunately it did not look like that was a possibility, as the killer was still at large. 

Jasnah walked up to Klade. "Klade, I wish the best for you and the rest of your people. This night has been unfortunate, and I understand that you and yours may be very angry at us. I just want to let you know that we will try to get to the bottom of this all. It is understandable if you choose to reject this treaty, however, it is still offered to you. And the least I can do is escort you to safety if needs be"

Quote

I can vouch for the fact that Navani is now in Shadesmar. Which vouches for her action cycle 9.5

Ninja'd by Kelek

[Opal Lion]

11 hours ago, SE_Tearim said:

I have no idea how to start or stop the Desolation, but I know it has to do with the Heralds somehow (good or bad).

That's more information than I have. Where did you get this information?

5 hours ago, SE_Ivory said:

Edit: but I'll have to agree that tearim seems to be the most likely person to be up to no good. Still, if the person that roleblocked Ialai could either claim in thread, or shoot me a PM, it'd help clear up a little paranoid theory of mine that I'd love to get rid of.

Is this from the cycle where Dalinar and Amaram were killed? That was the cycle Ialai claimed she was roleblocked, but doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the most recent murders.

Quote

Since Hour 8, I've been trying to help the Heralds achieve their win conditions. It hasn't worked out too well, as Ash hasn't spoken in doc since Hour 8 and our attempt to protect Venli Hour 9 was sabotaged by a redirect of the attack and a roleblock of the protect. Last cycle, I wasn't around to coordinate anything so I just helped Ialai with her charm action. It failed, supposedly because Ialai forgot to submit an action.

 

[Onyx Flamingo]

Quote

Ialai, you say you don't trust Adolin yet? I agree we shouldn't judge people based on cannon, but based on my information, Adolin seems to have a pretty solid story.

Right after Gavilar's death, he was one of the first people I saw to say he had the wincon to find Gavilar's killer.  He attacked Aesudan twice, both times succeeding. Suspecting her for that murder.  She kept avoiding discussion on Gavilar.  I don't know what he did the turn after, but the turn after that I can confirm he and I attacked Venli.  Last turn, he should have been working with Ialai.  And I have no reason to think he lied on that.

Currently, he and I are planning on working together again this turn.

If someone wants to item spy on him to see if he has the black sphere, they can.  Though I made the assumption that the sphere would have been consumed when Aesudan used it.

 

Edited October 23, 2018 by SE_Liss
Not Ialai who used the black sphere lol

[Coral Swan]

@SE_Drunk_Beggar I know the Heralds are involved somehow because my wincon says I have to keep the Heralds alive because they’re important. That’s a bit screwed, since Venli killed Nalan, but I’m still going to stick with it.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

LG49/AN3: Hour 10.5 - TBA

---

Navani was killed.
Klade was attacked, but protected.
Tearim was ostracised.
Liss was ostracised.

Vote Count:
Tearim (3): Ialai, Navani, Klade

The RP point totals you have received are those of last turn's, but will be updated this turn. If you wish to know your updated tally sooner, let me know and I will send it to you as soon as I can. 

As I have a midterm, and then my 21st birthday, rollover is changing time to 11:30pm MST for the near future. As such, this turn will end in slightly more than 48 hours, on the 26th of October at 11:30pm MST.
 

[Mint Heron]

"At last, I have completed all of my win conditions other than to stop the desolation! I will inform you shortly of what my other actions were, as previously I felt that informing the party of my goals would be detrimental to their success. I fear that the death of Navani only further reinforces my interpretation that someone desires the death of all Kholins. This, I fear, is not the greatest thing, and we must identify who at this point could be benefiting from the death of all Kholins. Some roleblocks being flung around may be in order, or more action spying. We must identify who the killers are before Jasnah and Adolin are killed, who are, if I remember correctly, the only kholins still alive at this point. Now excuse me, I am going to relieve myself somewhere not occupied by dead bodies, chulls, or alethi. I will return and deliver that memorandum for Elhokar that I promised a while back. Also, may I note that if all Kholins die, I'm probably the best qualified person to hold the throne. Which would be entertaining for a day or two, and then I would probably get bored and send the entire nation to attack the horneaters or something. So yeah, it's best if Jasnah and Adolin remain alive." 

[Mauve Crocodile]

As the great philosopher George Berkeley once said, “If a tree falls in a forest, and nobody hears it, does it make a sound?” 

A similar question was posed to me in PM by Ialai, in which she asked, “If a Desolation comes, but nobody is alive to witness it, does it still happen?” I posit that it does not. 

Clearly nothing is to be done right now about the uptick in murders. I’ve been trying to protect people (I protected Jasnah this cycle, successfully apparently) but it seems the killings will continue. And with nobody who I really trust still alive and un-ostracised, our numbers will continue to shrink, as I guarantee that there are some people in my PMs smiling through their teeth and killing people as I attempt to negotiate with them. Such is life, I fear, and no alibi is safe in these times (and yes, that extends to mine as well; I do not fear being questioned). 

Normally, I’d discuss Navani’s death, but it seems fairly unremarkable. I can see no good reason why it would have happened apart from an attack by whoever is trying to kill all the Kholins, unless Liss tried to gamble on a wincon involving her death. The attempt on Klade’s life seems similarly uninspired, with the attacker likely having an anti-Parshendi bias and trying to stop the Desolation that way (props to Kelek for saving him, by the way; I hope that finally got you your wincon). I doubt a simple massacre of our Parshendi guests, even those killing my family, will serve to stop the Desolation. 

Other than this, I can only say that I hope Tearim and Liss use whatever actions they have access to wisely. I know they can see this, and if they do look at it, I hope they see this warning: do not accelerate the rate of murder. I’d like to have more than one or two people left by the end of C12, and that won’t happen if you use any actions that directly or indirectly help kill people. 

Also Jasnah you really can’t die now because then I’d be killed for being king. Also you probably don’t want a notorious flirt trying to find a suitable royal consort   

[Emerald Falcon]

Agreed, Adolin. I think Action Spying has gone underutilized as of late, but perhaps using Protection actions would be more useful. I might be wrong, though - Spying could give us crucial info in time for the ostracism next round.

Does anyone know if your actions are blocked on the round when you are killed? I know they are not during ostracism, but it might be different if you are assassinated. If so, then Tearim wasn’t responsible, or at least wasn’t working alone. If not, we’ll have to wait another round to find out. 

Furthermore, the continued accuracy of the attacks frightens me. Either someone has a really high success chance for killing, or there’s a multiple people working together. And yes, while any action can be achieved by one person, the fact that they can achieve it consistently indicates cooperation.

Quote

1. Ialai

2. Jasnah

3. Ivory

4. Adolin

5. Wit

6. Beggar

7. Ash

8. Kelek

9. Klade

I fear no man. But that list... it scares me. Time to get out the tinfoil.

Jasnah and Ivory: nothing’s changed on my stance with these two. Although I’d like to confirm the outcome of Jasnah’s action - I do hate to be paranoid, but I’ve been burned by people pulling out of actions before and not telling me. (Ahem.) But I suspect they’re not lying. 

Adolin: he’s built up a lot of goodwill, and he killed Aesudan, but I can’t confirm many of his alibis, unfortunately. Thus, I am reluctantly considering them as a suspect. I just can’t bring myself to clear him on circumstantial evidence alone, especially since the list of suspects is so short.

Wit: given that I know almost nothing about them, nor their motives, I am concerned that they may be playing the long game. Kelek’s vouching is great, and I sorta trust Kelek (I’ll get into that later), but I’ve still received far too little information about them to confidently clear them.

Drunk Beggar: They’ve got a solid (and confirmed!) alibi, which means they couldn’t have killed Venli or Elhokar. So unless they weren’t working alone, I am confidently clearing them.

Ash: inactive. Should everyone else provide a solid alibi, we’ll have to resort to lynching her as she’s the only person who I have had zero communication from in some time, both in the thread and in PMs. But the fact she hasn’t been replaced indicates actions, at least to me, unless I’m misremembering how long ago she last posted.

Kelek: circumstantial evidence that clears them, but nothing solid - I realise that sounds odd, but I’m going off the information I have and not what other people say they have. I’ve trusted them up till now. There’s one thing that has been nagging at me, though, and I’m constructing a theory currently, but if anyone could confirm that they assisted Kelek in one of his protects that would be excellent.

Klade: someone protected them - probably Kelek, as Adolin guessed, but again I’m not making assumptions.

Most Suspicious (or at least the most mysterious): Klade, Wit, Ash.

Sorta Suspicious: Adolin, Kelek.

Least Suspicious: Jasnah, Ivory, Drunk Beggar. Me.

Once I get PM responses, this list will definitely change. There are no good options here.

[Plum Rhinoceros]

40 minutes ago, SE_Ialai_Sadeas said:

Kelek: circumstantial evidence that clears them, but nothing solid - I realise that sounds odd, but I’m going off the information I have and not what other people say they have. I’ve trusted them up till now. There’s one thing that has been nagging at me, though, and I’m constructing a theory currently, but if anyone could confirm that they assisted Kelek in one of his protects that would be excellent.

@SE_Wit please. Some other people too, but I honestly don't know who is dead at this point. We successfully protected Klade. Now, I need to participate with four players on an action. Feel free to contact me if interested.

Edited October 25, 2018 by SE_Kelek

[Mint Heron]

"I did indeed cooperate with him last night to save Klade. We've been discussing protections for a while now so I'm pretty sure Kelek is trustworthy. I had the win condition to protect two people, which is the one I just finished. Before that, it was to redirect and to roleblock 2 people. I redirected Jasnah's action, and I roleblocked... I think it was Amaram, I'll double check on that (it was Aesudan). I also have had 2 win conditions that have involved cooperating with people to some capacity or another. I also had the win condition to be the first to vote on a successful ostracization, which I got when I voted on Liss a while back. There were also some turns where I forgot to take actions, and a bunch of recent turns have been unsuccessful protect actions, either because of my action failing or no one attacking the person I protected. I also helped put up that Chull notice, if you didn't already figure that out. I don't remember all the people who I've cooperated with, but I've done a lot of cooperation when I take actions, so I have plenty of people who can account for various actions. In recent turns, I've tried protecting Klade twice and tried protecting Amaram, and I cooperated with Drunk Beggar a while back to roleblock Aesudan, which apparently counted as a protection because I must have prevented her from taking a kill action. As for the turns where I took no action, they were also the ones where I didn't say anything. Now, the only thing I have left to accomplish is to stop the desolation, and I am interested in figuring out the puzzle that lies before us. If that's not enough information, I'll pull out exact specifics, but I'm also habitually lazy and if this is enough, I'd rather not have to figure out exactly what action I took on what turn." 

Edited October 25, 2018 by SE_Wit
I double checked, and grammar