Anniversary Game 4/Anonymous Game 1: A Fresh Start

[Orlok Tsubodai]

2 minutes ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

Does this mean that Opal was a Dustbringer kill?

And does that make Octopus was the Elim kill?

You are correct on both counts. In writeups, Dustbringer kills will include a reference to fire of some nature.

[Violet Axolotl]

2 Edgedancer messages but only one dead Edgedancer and PMs are gone.  So it looks like a Worldhopper had Edgedancer powers for the night.  Hopefully they will get it again soon.  Or another Worldhopper gets it.

[Oxblood Beagle]

Hey I didn't die! 

It appears that elims are going after inactives. Interesting. 

Also, damnation. We lost PMs. 

 

[Onyx Flamingo]

DO we know how many elims there are or is that info we dont know? Dang this is not good.

 

I do think the Dustbringer is a Villager though based off their choice of opal can't be sure but since people suspected him last night thats the feeling i get

Edited January 20, 2018 by Onyx Flamingo

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Feeling a bit sorry for Beagle as his whole PM Empire collapsed around his furry ears. 

Elims going after inactives makes a lot of sense to me. Killing an actually active player would generate valuable discussion for the village, and since they know which inactives are village they can kill them with impunity as we try to puzzle out the frequent posters. We typically only lynch actives, as they’re easier to build cases against, but the real Elims are hiding somewhere on the “activity fringe.” Like, 6-12 posts. Enough to contribute without reprimand, but not enough to give us the ability to solidly analyze them. Maybe one of them is a frequent contributor, but the rest are hiding. 

That said, who to lynch? I’m scanning the activity fringe, and find myself suspicious of Cream Tuatara. On the Shard recently (1 hour ago), but hasn’t really posted anything except some short NAI posts that deflected attention from him. Until I find a reason to trust him, I’m voting Cream Tuatara. We have to start going for the semiactives, and I feel he’s the best place to start. At least, hopefully this vote will inspire him to post some solid analysis. 

I’m also suspicious of Salmon Meerkat, though it’s more of a gut feel than anything else and not something I would actually lynch him for. In addition, I think someone made a post defending him, which if Meerkat does flip elim, we should likely investigate. I’ll scan the thread again to see if I can find it.

I urge all villagers (and Elims too, I guess) to get some discussion going on the lynch. A weekend day cycle is perfect for lynch discussion, so hopefully this will develop nicely and we can lynch an actual Elim.

 

[Cream Tuatara]

After reading through Day 2, I’ll be voting on Opal Lion for hopping on the Swan bandwagon.

[Oxblood Beagle]

1 minute ago, Cream Tuatara said:

After reading through Day 2, I’ll be voting on Opal Lion for hopping on the Swan bandwagon.

Dude, he died. 

[Onyx Flamingo]

18 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Dude, he died. 

This made me laugh so hard! I definitely agree with you Ivory that the Elims seem to be hiding either in the inactive or the somewhat active zone. With the new developments of last night I do want to comb through day 2 and 1 again to see if there is something I missed but I will leave a vote on Mint Heron Because he has been on multiple times with the last being just 2 hours ago but he still only has 2 Content posts! He must be doing something to stay active and not get replaced... 

[Cream Tuatara]

Well, RIP Opal Lion. In other news, Oxblood Beagles wins comment of the game so far.

[Turquoise Gorilla]

2 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Feeling a bit sorry for Beagle as his whole PM Empire collapsed around his furry ears. 

Elims going after inactives makes a lot of sense to me. Killing an actually active player would generate valuable discussion for the village, and since they know which inactives are village they can kill them with impunity as we try to puzzle out the frequent posters. We typically only lynch actives, as they’re easier to build cases against, but the real Elims are hiding somewhere on the “activity fringe.” Like, 6-12 posts. Enough to contribute without reprimand, but not enough to give us the ability to solidly analyze them. Maybe one of them is a frequent contributor, but the rest are hiding. 

That said, who to lynch? I’m scanning the activity fringe, and find myself suspicious of Cream Tuatara. On the Shard recently (1 hour ago), but hasn’t really posted anything except some short NAI posts that deflected attention from him. Until I find a reason to trust him, I’m voting Cream Tuatara. We have to start going for the semiactives, and I feel he’s the best place to start. At least, hopefully this vote will inspire him to post some solid analysis. 

I’m also suspicious of Salmon Meerkat, though it’s more of a gut feel than anything else and not something I would actually lynch him for. In addition, I think someone made a post defending him, which if Meerkat does flip elim, we should likely investigate. I’ll scan the thread again to see if I can find it.

I urge all villagers (and Elims too, I guess) to get some discussion going on the lynch. A weekend day cycle is perfect for lynch discussion, so hopefully this will develop nicely and we can lynch an actual Elim.

 

I wanted to join the PM empire. Now I'm sad.

I think I agree with you about the Sympathizers hiding in the activity fringe, so I will do my best to get out of that area by posting more!

Cream Tuatara is in that area, and I sort of agree with the suspicion on them, but them voting on Opal Lion right after they died has me wondering. Because it seems like Sympathizers would pay more attention than that. It's also pretty clear bandwagoning, since Opal Lion was getting a lot of attention during the Night, which seems too obvious to come from an eliminator.

I believe Sunburst Toucan defended Meerkat. An interesting combination, since both of them have garnered some suspicion. Would Toucan be willing to defend a teammate if they're both under suspicion though?

52 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

Well, RIP Opal Lion. In other news, Oxblood Beagles wins comment of the game so far.

Is there anyone else you consider suspicious then? The more opinions you give, the better we can understand your point of view.

Looking back at Beagle's post of reads, I find myself mostly agreeing with it. First 11 players I agree with basically completely. Since Beagle trusts Albatross because of PM's, I find it hard to agree with. @Oxblood Beagle, what did happen in the bird PM? If it's sensitive information, I can understand some trust from sharing that with you, but otherwise I'm not sure I follow why you'd trust them for that.

I think I should review Plum Rhinoceros, since Beagle puts them as stronger elim. Shouldn't take long, since they haven't posted a lot.

I thought Quartz Zebra's big summary post was good, and seemed like a villager thing to do.

Beagle has me as slightly village, which is slightly kind of them, haha.

In response to @Chartreuse Penguin, it is possible that the Sympathizers have a Skybreaker, but we shouldn't discount the possibility that the Sympathizers just haven't used their Willshapers or Bondsmiths yet because they haven't had good reason to. I like your ideas about being wary of evil Skybreakers, and also how village Skybreakers should sacrifice themselves later on to confirm their scans and alignment. Makes me lean village for you, at least some.

I want to vote soon, but I need to review first. These are the players I'm considering voting for: Cream Tuatara, Fuschia Ostrich, Pearl Chameleon, and Salmon Meerkat. If others could offer their thoughts on these players, I'd very much appreciate it.

[Onyx Flamingo]

Honestly not much happened in the bird PM penguin contacted us all then Saying that birds were prejudiced against on roshar and we should stick together. After that Coral swan made the comment that his character served chicken which I found distasteful so I invited all the birds into a new pm except for swan and from there not much conversation happened, Amber vulture said she suspected swan of Fowl  play heron participated by saying he would see what he could scratch up information wise and shame on coral swan for being a cannibal. Penguin replied once to explain what happened with the chicken statement in the first PM group in response to Magenta albertross wondering why there was two groups. At the end I asked what everyone thought about my post that almost got me killed on day two for my tone deafness and noone responded. That's basically it

[Violet Axolotl]

1 hour ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

I will leave a vote on Mint Heron Because he has been on multiple times with the last being just 2 hours ago but he still only has 2 Content posts! He must be doing something to stay active and not get replaced... 

It's entirely possible that they have been replaced as it isn't announced when a pinch hitter takes over from an inactive.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

49 minutes ago, Turquoise Gorilla said:

Looking back at Beagle's post of reads, I find myself mostly agreeing with it. First 11 players I agree with basically completely. Since Beagle trusts Albatross because of PM's, I find it hard to agree with. @Oxblood Beagle, what did happen in the bird PM? If it's sensitive information, I can understand some trust from sharing that with you, but otherwise I'm not sure I follow why you'd trust them for that.

@Onyx Flamingo did a good job summing it up. I was hoping to do more with that PM group, but now that PMs are closed that’s not going to happen, so I might as well state what my intentions were. 

You see, big PM groups with a bunch of random players like that are usually a terrible idea because there is almost always an Eliminator or two in the bunch. So I was watching for that, looking for anyone who might be trying to subtly manipulate the group into voting for or protecting someone. The PM group was too short lived to really follow that plan through for very long, but there was one player in the group who voiced some suspicions that I felt were pretty shakey at the time. @Amber Vulture voiced suspicion of Swan before the bandwagon got going against her. 

My suspicion of Amber Vulture isn’t very strong, but it’s the only suspicion I have that isn’t literally bandwagoning onto someone else’s vote, so I’m going to stick with it for now. 

[Mint Heron]

As the sun slipped below the hills of Rennan, Kharsis the peddler pushed a cart up the winding path that connected the rest of the world to the village of Rennan. The bells on his cart jingled merrily, at odds with the effort it took to ascend the hill. He wasn’t as young as he used to be, and this hill felt much steeper than he remembered. But he continued to follow where his feet took him, huffing and puffing as the familiar scenery rolled by.

“Who’s there?” A voice called from the top of a wall. There were two men standing there, both silhouetted against the morning sun. For the first time that Kharsis could remember, the gates to Rennan were closed. Barred from the inside, as if they were seeking to keep something out.

For the thousandth time, he stopped and prepared to turn around without answering. He didn’t need to come here; there was hardly any money to be made in Rennan, and he would hardly be welcome when they realised who he was…

No, he thought. I can’t run away. Not again. He would just drop in for a few days to settle some matters, and then he could move on with the rest of his life, and that would be the end of that. He steeled himself.

“Who’s there?” The voice repeated.

For the first time, he continued pushing his cart and answered. “Kharsis the peddler,” he said, “Here to sell some goods and share some news, if you’ll have me.”

“Hands up and step away from that cart,” the voice commanded.

Kharsis complied. Something about that voice tickled at the back of his mind, poking at memories from long ago. He knew this voice; it belonged to his friend, the one who could do fancy tricks with a spear, the one named…

“Drelan! Drelan, they selected you for the Watch?” he called. “Congratulations!”

“...Kharsis?” Drelan called back, with an air of amazement. “Is that...we thought you were dead, man!”

“Well I’m not,” Kharsis said. “Are you going to let me in or not, you chullhead?”

Teys said something to the guard behind him, and then slipped down into the guardhouse. A moment later, the gates opened, allowing Kharsis to see Rennan for the first time in decades. Golden light spilled from the roofs and the streets onto his head. He inhaled the scents of his hometown -- the musky scent of chulls, the wheaty scent of grain, the traditional curry that only Rennans made -- and the part of him that had never stopped missing Rennan smiled.

“I’ve left old Teys up there, so the Captain can’t complain that I’ve abandoned my post,” Drelan said. “Storms man, where have you been?”

He’d been a lot of places, Kharsis said with a grin, launching into a story of the time he tried to smuggle himself from Kharbranth to Thaylen City.

“So, what’s life like on the Watch?” Kharsis asked, “How’ve you avoided getting bored out of your mind, just standing there and doing nothing?”

Drelan sighed. “There’s been a few murders recently,” he said. “We’re trying to figure out who’s doing it. The Captain’s paired us all up on our shifts now, so we can keep an eye inside too.”

“Oh,” Kharsis said. A cold wind pricked at the back of his neck. “Who died?”
The first sign
“Metam, Emalia, Cannoc,” Drelan said. He hesitated. “Elyle too. It’s not pretty.”
Is when someone inexplicably drops dead
They walked in silence for a while. Strange, Kharsis thought. I can barely remember them, let alone feel sad about their deaths. Am I supposed to mourn them? Should it make a difference, whether I knew them or not? All he could muster up was a cold, hollow feeling.

“Eh, let’s not get too caught up on that, man,” Drelan said. “You’re back, we should celebrate that instead. Gimme two hours to organize a party at the tavern, yeah?”
That’s your sign to get out of there, as fast as you can
“Sounds good,” Kharsis said. “See you there.”
I tried, but you wouldn’t listen. Good luck.

-

Some questions for the GMs:

1. If a player is protected and attacked, will it be revealed in the writeup?

2. Can a Lightweaver choose not to use Illumination on themselves for a Night?

3. What happens if both a Bondsmith and a Willshaper use their abilities on the same player’s vote?

Edited for format.

Edited January 20, 2018 by Mint Heron

[Sunburst Toucan]

7 hours ago, Turquoise Gorilla said:

I believe Sunburst Toucan defended Meerkat. An interesting combination, since both of them have garnered some suspicion. Would Toucan be willing to defend a teammate if they're both under suspicion though?

"Eh, what?" Vanna looked up from her notes in confusion. "I don't remember defending Meerkat at all. being suspicious of him, and voting on him during the first day, yes. The only thing that could be considered a defense is backing off from pursuing that suspicion further after Swan decided to let Meerkat off the hook."

Vanna shook her head. She'd probably need to review Meerkat soon, to see whether her first instincts where right or not, but she'd decided to approach it systematically, and abandoning that now might rob her of the momentum she'd built in getting the job done.

Peneg Uinneas(Chartreuse Penguin)

Spoiler

Well, having a full Shardbearer (or maybe even a Radiant? One can hope) around should be useful, and if he was part of the murderers he could probably have just emptied the village by going on a rampage, right? Then again, a few of those who died where actually radiant themselves, so he might just be waiting till they're dealt with. His status as a shardbearer doesn't prove anything, so let's move on.

Peneg has been pretty quiet until last night. Not counting his belligerent entrance during the first day, that is. He'd been contributing some interesting speculation about the various orders of Radiants present, and what their respective numbers might mean. His conclusions are based on actual divine intervention in which orders are present, but I can't prove that's not the case, so it should be kept in mind. 

Today, she mentioned that contacting a lot of people is usually a bad idea, which is rather interesting because Peneg was one of the first to do so, contacting around 8 villagers including myself during the first night. That could be because she was actually looking for someone to betray themselves by attempting to manipulate people in there though.

overall Peneg hasn't given me much to determine whether he's innocent or not.

Cream Tuatara

Spoiler

Tuatara seems to be made from inconsistencies. During the first day he threw a lot of votes around for the most trivial of reasons, but he claimed he'd only vote if he had a good reason during the second day.

Most of his other comments seem to be pointing out the obvious. For example, he remarked on the sudden lynch mob at the end of yesterday without actually adding any insight apart form it being suspicious.

Today, he put a vote on Opal Lion for his role in that lynch, but there's no real indication this is the result of an independent decision, as several people had pointed out that Opal Lion's vote was the oddest in the bunch, and someone thought it was suspicious enough to murder him for.

overall, Tuatara hasn't really said anything that would allow me to determine whether he's innocent or not, but given how often he's spoken up, that in itself is a suspicious.

Aldrick (Emerald Falcon)

Spoiler

Aldrick seems to have just had a major change in his character, but the new Aldrick hasn't said enough yet for me to judge whether it's an improvement over cranky old soldier Aldrick. The change is very odd, but it means that looking at what he's said in the past is not as valuable as it might have been.

OOC: So, there's no way I can think of to say this in character, but him specifically asking for summaries makes me lean slightly village on him, as an elim could have easily gotten those out of the doc. That having been said, an elim could have asked for those specifically to look village.

Fuchsia Ostrich

Spoiler

Ostrich was one of those casting suspicion around with no real explanation during the first day. If he was the only one this would be suspicious, but given how many people did that ( a short bout of madness due to the shock of the smith's sudden death, maybe?), I'm not sure if there's anything that an be concluded by that. I suspect that one or more of the murderers might have joined in on that, but I'm not sure howto tell the actually mad from the murderously crazy.

During D2, he voted on Axolotl and claimed that there was an explanation:

However, he never actually explained what made axolotl suspicious, which makes me suspicious.

There's nothing else that really springs out to me. I'm somewhat suspicious of Ostrich for the unexplained vote on axolotl, and would really like to see an explanation ( @Fuchsia Ostrich)

Vanna put her pen down. She'd covered about a third of the village now, but her hand had started to cramp, so it was time for a break. She took her notes and walked towards the edge of the village to look out over the world.

[Sage Kangaroo]

11 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Hey I didn't die! 

It appears that elims are going after inactives. Interesting. 

Also, damnation. We lost PMs. 

I'm actually suspicious of Beagle again.  Ok, I know I'm wobbling about here, but it's hard to get reads on people, ok?  

Ok, I'm partially suspicious of them because they're still alive, after being one of the most active players for a couple cycles now, as well as apparently being extremely active in PMs.  Even if a lot of it was fluff, it was still a lot of posts, and some of them had some pretty decent analysis in them. It just seems unlikely that the Elims would keep a player like that alive.  I'll admit that the kill patterns of the Elims do look a little odd, though, so who knows?

But if Beagle was an Elim, suddenly it makes sense why he's not dead yet.  It also makes sense that he was a big part of two lynch trains on players we now know were villagers.  And those repeated, "I'm probably going to die tonight," "Oh, phew, I survived," definitely read as off to me.

So, Beagle.  I know I'm not the first person to post suspicions of you, but I'd like to hear what you have to say, especially since a couple of those suspicions you simply discarded as "Ok, I gambled and failed."  Not really a defense, more of a deflection.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

8 hours ago, Turquoise Gorilla said:

I wanted to join the PM empire. Now I'm sad.

I think I agree with you about the Sympathizers hiding in the activity fringe, so I will do my best to get out of that area by posting more!

Cream Tuatara is in that area, and I sort of agree with the suspicion on them, but them voting on Opal Lion right after they died has me wondering. Because it seems like Sympathizers would pay more attention than that. It's also pretty clear bandwagoning, since Opal Lion was getting a lot of attention during the Night, which seems too obvious to come from an eliminator.

I believe Sunburst Toucan defended Meerkat. An interesting combination, since both of them have garnered some suspicion. Would Toucan be willing to defend a teammate if they're both under suspicion though?

Is there anyone else you consider suspicious then? The more opinions you give, the better we can understand your point of view.

Looking back at Beagle's post of reads, I find myself mostly agreeing with it. First 11 players I agree with basically completely. Since Beagle trusts Albatross because of PM's, I find it hard to agree with. @Oxblood Beagle, what did happen in the bird PM? If it's sensitive information, I can understand some trust from sharing that with you, but otherwise I'm not sure I follow why you'd trust them for that.

I think I should review Plum Rhinoceros, since Beagle puts them as stronger elim. Shouldn't take long, since they haven't posted a lot.

I thought Quartz Zebra's big summary post was good, and seemed like a villager thing to do.

Beagle has me as slightly village, which is slightly kind of them, haha.

In response to @Chartreuse Penguin, it is possible that the Sympathizers have a Skybreaker, but we shouldn't discount the possibility that the Sympathizers just haven't used their Willshapers or Bondsmiths yet because they haven't had good reason to. I like your ideas about being wary of evil Skybreakers, and also how village Skybreakers should sacrifice themselves later on to confirm their scans and alignment. Makes me lean village for you, at least some.

I want to vote soon, but I need to review first. These are the players I'm considering voting for: Cream Tuatara, Fuschia Ostrich, Pearl Chameleon, and Salmon Meerkat. If others could offer their thoughts on these players, I'd very much appreciate it.

Cream Tuatara: Stated my suspicions of them. Not much to add here, and those last two posts don’t make me any less suspicious. The vote on Lion, while it may have been a genuine mistake, was still not explained well, and it could have been a contrived mistake to try and get themselves trusted with relatively little effort. My vote stays on him until he steps forth and offers commentary.

Fuschia Ostrich: Again, on the activity fringe making a lot of NAI posts. Gives me reason to suspect he/she might be elim. One post that did pop out to me was the vote on Weasel, done to tie the vote and let RNG decide the first vote. Seems random and NAI, but I’ll keep an eye on it.

Pearl Chameleon: I actually trust him. I know that he hasn’t posted frequently, but his few posts are insightful and they help the village. But... I did find the post I was talking about earlier. Chameleon was the one who defended Meerkat, but it seems to be well-intentioned so I don’t know if it’s sufficient grounds for lynching if Meerkat flips elim. Definently keeping an eye on that post though. 

Salmon Meerkat: He’s one of those players that everything about his posts sounds okay, but the underlying tone makes me nervous. I can’t really attribute it to anything other than gut feeling, so I’m not going to lynch him for such a terrible reason, but I will be following his posts closely to see if I can puzzle him out.

@Sage Kangaroo I think there’s a simpler reason the Elims haven’t killed Beagle: it would confirm nearly everything he’s been saying as true. If I was elim, I would wait to kill Beagle until the very end of the game, letting the suspicion on him build to negate some of his meaningful commentary and to deflect suspicion away from themselves. Of course, this assumes village!Beagle, but I don’t really see much of a case for Elim!Beagle, as his comments seem genuine, as do his motives. Again, not completely ignoring him as a suspect, but I trust him.

 

[Quartz Zebra]

Right. This system of a long post once each turn isn't really working out that well for me, so I'm trying to be more active. Let's see how long that lasts...

1 hour ago, Sage Kangaroo said:

Ok, I'm partially suspicious of them because they're still alive, after being one of the most active players for a couple cycles now, as well as apparently being extremely active in PMs.  Even if a lot of it was fluff, it was still a lot of posts, and some of them had some pretty decent analysis in them. It just seems unlikely that the Elims would keep a player like that alive.  I'll admit that the kill patterns of the Elims do look a little odd, though, so who knows?

The thing is, Beagle was the obvious target, meaning that there was a very high probability that Beagle would have been protected last night. The Elims would have known this, and taken care to pick someone else. It makes perfect sense to me. I don't really think that's necessarily grounds for suspicion. (Not that I wouldn't find different things about Beagle's attitude suspicious - still waiting for responses about what Beagle said when they asked others to switch their votes in PM's - the fact that it wasn't done in thread concerns me more than the fact that they didn't die.)

Re: Gorilla's request:

Tuatara - I read it as a playstyle thing that they bandy around votes a lot - the latest post makes it clear they're not that in touch with the game. I'd say I haven't really seen anything alignment indicative from them.

Fuchsia Ostrich  - Mild to moderate suspicion. They bandwagon, and generally try to avoid attention. Out of those four, they are by far the most suspicious to me. They've made 9 posts this game. Two posts are purely to do with the RP of the game, another two are deflections without real content, and one is asking for clarification from the GM on whether their vote swap was noted. One of the remaining posts was a poke-vote on Salmon Meerkat early in the day "because they have two animals in their name". It's not that I'm objecting to flippant poke-votes - there's not much else to do early day 1 - but it means that Ostritch has a grand total of 3 analysable posts, and all of them are one line long. In other word, they're very good at avoiding saying anything that could tie them down later in the game, while appearing to be active. So. Here are their three posts:

Quote

I agree with the Scorpion. Let us have RNGebus decide who dies. If Axolotl's list is correct, than Weasel

...I mean, why? What information could we possibly glean from an RNG death? Wouldn't that reduce the ability for conversation about who to lynch, thereby spreading more information about players stances on other players? Or is this a quick way to vote on Weasel without having to find a genuine reason?

Quote

Having finally finished catching up, Axolotl is suspicious, though my notes aren't the best

Again, no explanation why, hopping on a bandwagon (along with Albatross, who I've already discussed my suspicion of, and Beagle, who plenty of other people seem to be suspicious of, so...) - could you elaborate on why you found them suspicious? Do you have any other thoughts on any of the other players?

Note: There's also an edit here - "Posted before I was done". You were posting one line, Ostrich... 

Quote

axolotl if you truly wish to stitch with a pinch hitter

This is... fair enough, given what happened. NAI.

In short, they're very good at pretending to be active, but when you break it down, post by post, then they say less than I do.  I'd like, at the very least, to hear some thoughts on the game from Ostrich - from there, I'll decide whether to switch my vote.

Pearl Chameleon - I have no notes on them, and I don't remember anything they've said. (I'm yet to reread Day 2 properly and add my notes.) Neutral.

Meerkat - I really only remember RP stuff from them. Day 1, they had an anti-pink league... and I can't remember much beyond that. That's... not really a priority for me - certainly, I don't think I saw anything I found suspicious, otherwise I'd have noted it. (To clarify - with Ostrich, the lack of substantial posts a way of avoiding scrutiny, whereas with Meerkat, I read it as them just doing what's fun for them, which is perfectly fine.)

...And I said this was going to be a short post. Heh. I like to delude myself sometimes...

Edited January 20, 2018 by Quartz Zebra
Moved Ostrich's posts into quote boxes so they wouldn't count as my votes for clarification

[Amethyst Scorpion]

So I said I wanted to do some deeper analysis. I should have known that wasn’t going to happen. I’m going to take a more easygoing approach instead and of course keep participating, but not try to be exceptionally analytical.

I would welcome PMs, though. I’ve found those useful, but I haven’t been good about starting them. I may start some too.

[Quartz Zebra]

1 minute ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

I would welcome PMs, though. I’ve found those useful, but I haven’t been good about starting them. I may start some too.

Can't start them or receive them anymore, unfortunately. Our other Edgedancer died.

That reminds me of the other thing I meant to ask - was Octopus active in PM's? If they were, they might have claimed to someone and subsequently been killed by the Eliminators. Or, the Eliminators were just lucky. Both are possible.

Also, does anyone know how to turn off overwrite mode in Chrome? It's annoying me, and means I can't triple edit things like I want to (a large part of why I don't post a ton - I tend to quibble to much over what I say until the last possible moment.)

...On second thought, maybe you all shouldn't tell me.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

2 hours ago, Sage Kangaroo said:

Ok, I'm partially suspicious of them because they're still alive, after being one of the most active players for a couple cycles now, as well as apparently being extremely active in PMs.

I hope I’m not the only one who sees the irony in this statement.  “I can’t believe that beagle is sill alive! He’s been so active! I say we kill him so that he won’t be alive anymore.”

Logic like that is precisely why the active players tend to get killed early in these games and the games devolves into a handful of semi-active players who haven’t been following the game trying to find the remaining eliminators.

From what I’ve seen the super-active players (like @Oxblood Beagle has been) are almost always (but admittedly, not always) Village. If this is true then don’t worry, the Eliminators will kill him eventually- day 3 is too soon to be suspicious of someone simply for not having been killed yet. Let’s try to not make the eliminators’ job easier for them. And in the meantime, if we keep Beagle alive we all get to benefit from his frequent and detailed posts, analyses, and theories. 

And if it turns out that he is one of those super-active players who happens to also be an eliminator, it will become obvious as time goes on. Nobody can post that much and not slip up somewhere. 

Edited January 20, 2018 by Chartreuse Penguin
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[Magenta Albatross]

Unfortunately, I missed the night cycle  and the discussion involving the vote swing on swan. I feel I should clarify my position towards the end of day and a few other questions posed to me by @Quartz Zebra I did make a post or two talking about this but in case you have missed it. I'll do more posts afterwards with reads and suspicions.

I think I already briefly mentioned my reasons for voting scorpion day 1, which were not substantial on any level, if I'm being really honest. But I felt that was the case with most votes day 1 so I voted scorpion with what little I had to go on. I had a null read on swan at the time and when I was posting, a few people had mentioned their suspicions on swan but there weren't any votes apart from 1 or 2. As I didn't have a firm read on swan, I didn't want to jump on the bandwagon at the time for fear that adding one more vote on could lead to more people piling their votes on and that being my last post that day, most likely.

This was obviously turned on its head day 2, which didn't turn out how I expected. Swan stayed as null and their posts didn't seem overly villagery to me. However, swan's suspicion, onyx,was rather villagery, I felt. I personally think swan being the target came from this fact, that they were pursuing onyx with a rather single-minded focus. And where I can see this coming from villagers at times, it's also very possible from elims, going after villagers who have some suspicions on them and not very many village reads. But again, the swing on swan can also be attributed due to the deal with axolotl, whom stood out to some of us as a bigger chance of containing an elim initially. 

I think Ivory correctly theorises that since we decided to not go for lynching inactives, we will find more things to be suspicious of in the active players and inactives tending to hide on the border and not really put themselves out front. Ivory and beagle fall in this category for me and even onyx to some extent. Which is why I decided to trust them for now even disregarding the PMs.

@Sage Kangaroo Regardless of my trust of beagle, I have to say this did occur to me as well but zebra offers an explanation which seems to make sense for now. 

[Salmon Meerkat]

With Opal dead, I see two possibilities for it. The Dustbringer is a villager, who thought Opal was highly suspicious from the bandwagon yesterday, or an Elim (Leras Preserve us) who wanted to prove that Opal was a villager to scramble our suspicions. 

Of the two, I reckon that the Dustbringer is a villager, because the Elims would more likely leave Opal alive so that we could waste a lynch on it.

Depending on how many Elims there are, suspected 4-6, there is most likely one or two Elim(s) among the more active players, and the rest are in varying states of activity. Given the amount of strongly active players we actually have, there should be more Elims among the fringe-actives, as previously noted. Unfortunately, its hard to get a target on fringe-actives based on how many posts they make, and the one active Elim will be influencing the vote through analysis.

[Quartz Zebra]

14 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

1. Unfortunately, I missed the night cycle  and the discussion involving the vote swing on swan. I feel I should clarify my position towards the end of day and a few other questions posed to me by @Quartz Zebra I did make a post or two talking about this but in case you have missed it. I'll do more posts afterwards with reads and suspicions.

I think I already briefly mentioned my reasons for voting scorpion day 1, which were not substantial on any level, if I'm being really honest. But I felt that was the case with most votes day 1 so I voted scorpion with what little I had to go on. I had a null read on swan at the time and when I was posting, a few people had mentioned their suspicions on swan but there weren't any votes apart from 1 or 2. As I didn't have a firm read on swan, I didn't want to jump on the bandwagon at the time for fear that adding one more vote on could lead to more people piling their votes on and that being my last post that day, most likely.

This was obviously turned on its head day 2, which didn't turn out how I expected. Swan stayed as null and their posts didn't seem overly villagery to me. However, swan's suspicion, onyx,was rather villagery, I felt. I personally think swan being the target came from this fact, that they were pursuing onyx with a rather single-minded focus. And where I can see this coming from villagers at times, it's also very possible from elims, going after villagers who have some suspicions on them and not very many village reads. But again, the swing on swan can also be attributed due to the deal with axolotl, whom stood out to some of us as a bigger chance of containing an elim initially. 

I think Ivory correctly theorises that since we decided to not go for lynching inactives, we will find more things to be suspicious of in the active players and inactives tending to hide on the border and not really put themselves out front. Ivory and beagle fall in this category for me and even onyx to some extent. Which is why I decided to trust them for now even disregarding the PMs.

@Sage Kangaroo Regardless of my trust of beagle, I have to say this did occur to me as well but zebra offers an explanation which seems to make sense for now. 

Hmmm... I didn't miss that. I read it, and decided I'd try to think deeply about it later. And then I forgot about it. Thanks for reminding me.

I admit, after Day 1, your posts have seemed a lot more villagery to me - one of the reasons I placed my vote on Ostrich this cycle, instead of trying to focus more on your posts. I do intend to go reread your previous responses now, though. Thanks again for reminding me.

5 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

[sic] or an Elim (Leras Preserve us) who wanted to prove that Opal was a villager to scramble our suspicions. 

...I'm not sure I follow that logic. If Lion is a villager, and they were a source of suspicion to the village, then why on Roshar would they want to prove to us that Lion was a Villager all along, so we can actually lynch an Eliminator this round instead of barking up the wrong tree?

[Salmon Meerkat]

36 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said:

...I'm not sure I follow that logic. If Lion is a villager, and they were a source of suspicion to the village, then why on Roshar would they want to prove to us that Lion was a Villager all along, so we can actually lynch an Eliminator this round instead of barking up the wrong tree?

I just explained that in my post a few lines down.