[OB] Too much to be a coincidence

[Leyrann]

When talking about SA with my brother, I realized that there's been a pretty special lining up of seemingly unrelated events, which seems to be too much of a coincidence. On one hand, we know (do we?) that Taln broke recently, which is why he is back to Roshar and a new Desolation is coming. On the other hand, we know that the singer forms of power were lost and rediscovered by the Parshendi (not to mention that the parshmen wouldn't be able to find them, as they were locked in slaveform without free will).

To expand a little on the forms of power, we see from Eshonai's points of view in WoR that the Parshendi deliberately swore off the forms of power. We now know that this was most likely because they realized the forms of power (which I believe is actually just the Fused taking over their bodies, but that's another discussion) were essential for Odium to bring about Desolations. The only reason the Parshendi were looking for the forms of power again was because they believed the alternative was extinction, and even then it was Venli, who was already influenced in some way, pushing it for quite some time.

It seems like a huge coincidence to me that Taln breaks just at that moment when the Alethi are at war with the Parshendi and the Parshendi are in trouble, facing potential extinction, which makes them look for (and find) the forms of power, bringing about the Desolation.

It seems like that which is supposed to cause the Desolation (a Herald breaking) and that which we have seen is the direct cause of the Desolation (seeking the forms of power; summoning the Everstorm) is totally unrelated but occured at the same time, which should be such a small chance, once you think it's been 4500 years since the last Desolation. There's got to be some kind of connection between the two things happening, but what? Or, maybe, was Taln back for longer already, but did he only now get noticed, or whatever it would be?

[Calderis he/him]

The forms of power are not just the Fused. They are also the Regals, who have forms like stormform, with red eyes, the new rhythms and control by Odium/the Unmade. 

And no, it's not a coincidence. There's a reason we don't see stormspren until after Taln's return. Forms of power require either a Desolation, or per the epigraphs and the evidence referring to the False Desolation, the power of Ba-Ado-Mishram, to facilitate forms of power and provide Voidlight. 

Edited January 3, 2018 by Calderis

[Leyrann]

7 minutes ago, Calderis said:

The forms of power are not just the Fused. They are also the Regals, who have forms like stormform, with red eyes, the new rhythms and control by Odium/the Unmade. 

And no, it's not a coincidence. There's a reason we don't see storms peen until after Taln's return. Forms of power require either a Desolation, or per the epigraphs and the evidence referring to the False Desolation, the power of Ba-Ado-Mishram, to facilitate forms of power and provide Voidlight. 

But then, what is the chance that basically the moment Taln breaks is the same moment that the Parshendi are desperate enough to actually seek the forms of power? We know they would actually want to stay as far away from them as possible. They've existed for thousands of years undiscovered, then in a few years time Taln breaks and they're discovered and faced with either seeking the forms of power or going extinct. If Taln had held out 50 years longer, wouldn't they have gone extinct due to the forms of power not being there to help them out (not that they helped much for them to stay alive...)?

[Calderis he/him]

Well if Venli is any evidence, there were some of them already seeking those forms. 

The fact that it happened when it did, wasn't even a boon to their survival. It was exactly the opposite. If Taln hadn't returned, and allowed the return of the voidspren, Eshonai would have treated with Dalinar rather than being in Stormform and continuing the war.

[Leyrann]

The thing is, firstly, if some were already seeking the forms, there is still the huge coincidence that the Parshendi were pressured this hard exactly when the forms returned; if Taln had broken earlier, a Desolation would've come out of nothing as a Parshendi had found the forms naturally. This would've probably been a standard Desolation. If Taln had broken later, the Parshendi would most likely not have exited anymore. The peace talk between Eshonai and Dalinar, as you yourself said, was after Eshonai had already taken up Stormform. In fact, if she hadn't yet taken up Stormform, they'd have abandoned the idea at that point. Venli and a few others might have continued to pursue Stormform, but they'd have never convinced the masses to take it up.

Secondly, though it indeed wasn't a boon to their survival, they did believe it to be, and that is why they searched for it. I simply feel like the "intensive searching and adapting Stormform" and the "Taln breaking and Stormform becoming 'available'" are two unrelated events that were a huge coincidence to happen so close together, which feels like an un-Brandon thing to do, making me wonder if there's a connection somewhere there that we're not seeing, maybe something that caused both of it.

[Kaleid]

Did Taln even break?

It seems to me that his madness may have been his way of surviving his millennia of torture. Focus on his mantra to the exclusion of everything else.

The coincidence is less that Taln arrived on the scene as the Parshendi were dying out - after all, that war started a few years prior, and even when they were killing Gavilar, the listeners were aware at least on some level that they were signing their own death warrant.

 

The coincidence is that Taln arrived right as the parshendi were about to sign a peace treaty with the Alethi.

 

 

[Leyrann]

Something along those lines is what I believe too, I think we've got something wrong about Taln breaking. I think it's one of two possibilities.

1. Taln broke earlier and has been back on Roshar for longer. However, with the parshmen in slaveform and the Parshendi staying away from the Forms of Power, there was no way for a Desolation to start. Only when the Parshendi were in trouble they turned to the Forms of Power, allowing the Desolation to begin; it needed a kickstart of some sort, basically. This could also explain the Sons of Honor as directly influenced by Odium - he needed to find a way to scare the Parshendi into taking up the Forms again, as it was the only way he could start a Desolation.

2. Taln hasn't broken, and has returned to Roshar because Odium or his minions found a way around him without having to break him. This ties Taln's return to the Parshendi being pressured, as the moment that the voidspren would go to the Parshendi would be the moment Taln realized the Oathpact was no longer working.

EDIT: To clarify, I think these options are the alternatives to a direct interconnection where both things were caused by the same thing, or "it's a big coincidence", which I don't like and which is probably false, as that isn't how Brandon writes his books.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Leyrann

[Kaleid]

4 minutes ago, Leyrann said:

2. Taln hasn't broken, and has returned to Roshar because Odium or his minions found a way around him without having to break him. This ties Taln's return to the Parshendi being pressured, as the moment that the voidspren would go to the Parshendi would be the moment Taln realized the Oathpact was no longer working.

 

I think it's this. If the Parshendi and the Alethi signed a treaty, the Parshendi would have no need for their forms of power; and Odium would not have an army.

 

[Leyrann]

Just now, Kaleid said:

 

I think it's this. If the Parshendi and the Alethi signed a treaty, the Parshendi would have no need for their forms of power; and Odium would not have an army.

 

It could very well be. I also like the idea of Taln holding off the breaking through his madness mantra. Perhaps Odium had figured out he could circumvent Taln a long time earlier already (maybe Honor dying is what allowed him to do so?) but he had to wait until there were singers looking for the Forms of Power until doing so would actually have any effect; during that time he wouldn't want Taln on Roshar preparing people, so he'd continue torturing him, while Taln kept holding out. Then, the Parshendi got pressured, Odium did his circumventing trick, Taln realized he had been tricked, and he returned to Roshar at the same time the first Parshendi took up Stormform.

(yes, Taln returned shortly before Eshonai took up Stormform, but Venli had already been in contact with that spren (Ulim?) for longer)

[Kaleid]

If we accept that:

 

1) Damnantion is on Braize (whether on the physical, cognitive or even spiritual realm)

2) Travel between realms is possible (which it has been shown to be)

3) Travel between worlds is possible (which it has been shown to be)

 

Then it wouldn't actually be all that difficult for someone with the know how to move (or be moved?) from Damnantion to Roshar without breaking to torture.

 

I propose that this is what Odium did. Which is why taln seems crazy - he's lost himself in his mantra as he believes he's still on Damnantion.

 

[StormingTexan he/him]

For what it is worth according to the Stormfather Taln did break. 

Quote

 

Dalinar leaped to his feet. “It’s him!” he shouted. “The madman. He really is a Herald!” HE FINALLY BROKE, the Stormfather said.

Sanderson, Brandon. Oathbringer: Book Three of the Stormlight Archive (p. 408). Tom Doherty Associates. Kindle Edition. 

 

 

[MonsterMetroid]

1 hour ago, Leyrann said:

But then, what is the chance that basically the moment Taln breaks is the same moment that the Parshendi are desperate enough to actually seek the forms of power? We know they would actually want to stay as far away from them as possible. They've existed for thousands of years undiscovered, then in a few years time Taln breaks and they're discovered and faced with either seeking the forms of power or going extinct. If Taln had held out 50 years longer, wouldn't they have gone extinct due to the forms of power not being there to help them out (not that they helped much for them to stay alive...)?

I also thought that maybe when taln borke it allowed that spren to come seek out venli. I mean he said something like he was the one to come before the others or something right?

[Leyrann]

3 minutes ago, MonsterMetroid said:

I also thought that maybe when taln borke it allowed that spren to come seek out venli. I mean he said something like he was the one to come before the others or something right?

That could be, but the thing is that it would be very peculiar that he would break so shortly before the Parshendi felt the need to seek out Stormform (once again, even though a single Parshendi might have looked for it earlier, it's clear that the majority view was that it was best to stay as far away as possible, which means that it wouldn't have been possible to convert enough Parshendi to Stormform to summon the Everstorm).

[Kaleid]

11 minutes ago, StormingTexan said:

For what it is worth according to the Stormfather Taln did break. 

 

 

The Stormfather has proven to be nowhere near as omniscient as previously assumed.

Maybe he assumes Taln broke because why else would Taln be here?

[MonsterMetroid]

3 minutes ago, Leyrann said:

That could be, but the thing is that it would be very peculiar that he would break so shortly before the Parshendi felt the need to seek out Stormform (once again, even though a single Parshendi might have looked for it earlier, it's clear that the majority view was that it was best to stay as far away as possible, which means that it wouldn't have been possible to convert enough Parshendi to Stormform to summon the Everstorm).

I mean I think this comes down to a combination of things. It started with venli and her ambition with the spren, then I imagine she converted all the scholars to the idea, then venli has access to one of the 5 directly through her sister and harrasses her until she takes the form. I think once eschonai took the form asnd people saw her with it on thats when things were most divided as many of the populace saw it as hope but others worried about the red eyes.

Finally once eschonai rounded everyone up I think that many went with the flow, very few were willing to actively oppose.

[Leyrann]

2 minutes ago, MonsterMetroid said:

I mean I think this comes down to a combination of things. It started with venli and her ambition with the spren, then I imagine she converted all the scholars to the idea, then venli has access to one of the 5 directly through her sister and harrasses her until she takes the form. I think once eschonai took the form asnd people saw her with it on thats when things were most divided as many of the populace saw it as hope but others worried about the red eyes.

Finally once eschonai rounded everyone up I think that many went with the flow, very few were willing to actively oppose.

Certainly, but I don't think Eshonai, the Five and the masses would have been convinced if they hadn't been faced with a losing war without possible escape.

[MonsterMetroid]

4 minutes ago, Leyrann said:

Certainly, but I don't think Eshonai, the Five and the masses would have been convinced if they hadn't been faced with a losing war without possible escape.

Oh definately I agree with this

[Leyrann]

Just now, MonsterMetroid said:

Oh definately I agree with this

And that's my point. Even though some Parshendi might have looked for Forms of Power before, this could very well have been the first time that a truly large group of Parshendi would be willing to accept them. Somehow, that happened at almost exactly the same time Taln returned, even though it seems like it is in no way connected - this happened on Roshar, while Taln was on Braize.

[MonsterMetroid]

3 minutes ago, Leyrann said:

And that's my point. Even though some Parshendi might have looked for Forms of Power before, this could very well have been the first time that a truly large group of Parshendi would be willing to accept them. Somehow, that happened at almost exactly the same time Taln returned, even though it seems like it is in no way connected - this happened on Roshar, while Taln was on Braize.

gotcha so you are saying for Taln to break, AND for the parshendi to almost be driven to Extinction near the same time seems too much a coincidence basically? 

Well we know that King T's diagram wanted to push for the extinction of the Parsh, So it certainly seems like Odium was manipulating someone or multiple people (including gavilar would be my guess) for this outcome to happen using his foresight. maybe his foresight let him predict when Taln would break... maybe Taln broke a bit earlier but they didn't act until everything was set like maybe taln doesn't return until the first voidspren does? But yeah it definately seems like it was planned extensively now that you mention it.

[Leyrann]

2 minutes ago, MonsterMetroid said:

gotcha so you are saying for Taln to break, AND for the parshendi to almost be driven to Extinction near the same time seems too much a coincidence basically? 

Well we know that King T's diagram wanted to push for the extinction of the Parsh, So it certainly seems like Odium was manipulating someone or multiple people (including gavilar would be my guess) for this outcome to happen using his foresight. maybe his foresight let him predict when Taln would break... maybe Taln broke a bit earlier but they didn't act until everything was set like maybe taln doesn't return until the first voidspren does? But yeah it definately seems like it was planned extensively now that you mention it.

Yup, that's basically it. I think that either we got something wrong about the timing of Taln breaking, or, as you said, some force knowing how much longer Taln would hold out influenced events on Roshar. I wouldn't be surprised if Odium was behind the Sons of Honor.

[RShara she/her]

Well, the Fused are bound on Braize, but Odium isn't, nor are some of his other agents.  I'm sure Odium's been moving behind the scenes for some time.

[StormingTexan he/him]

1 hour ago, Kaleid said:

 

The Stormfather has proven to be nowhere near as omniscient as previously assumed.

Maybe he assumes Taln broke because why else would Taln be here?

I think it makes more sense to put more weight in what is written in the actual book by someone that knows more of what is going on than any other on screen character (besides Odium and Cultivation, possible the Heralds none are countering the point though) than pure speculation. 

[Kaleid]

12 minutes ago, StormingTexan said:

I think it makes more sense to put more weight in what is written in the actual book by someone that knows more of what is going on than any other on screen character (besides Odium and Cultivation, possible the Heralds none are countering the point though) than pure speculation. 

 

Fair point.

 

However, in-world it makes sense with the knowledge the Stormfather has.

 

He knows (or believes)

-The Heralds are stuck in Damnantion until they give in to torture, at which point they are returned to Roshar

-There is no other way to return to Roshar

-Taln has returned to Roshar

Therefore, it is reasonable for the Stormfather to assume Taln is back on Roshar because he gave in to torture.

 

However, the second point has been proven to be incorrect by the Everstorm - a phenomenon which has never occurred before.  Therefore the Stormfather's conclusions are drawn from faulty information. He could be wrong.

 

After all, Taln was happy that Roshar got 4500 to prepare and develop for the next desolation. But doesn't the same work the other way? Odium and his forces have 4500 years to find ways around the Oathpact.

These events SEEM coincidental - but what if they are the result of literally millennia of meticulous preparation?

Edited January 3, 2018 by Kaleid
Spelling

[Varion he/him]

20 minutes ago, Leyrann said:

Yup, that's basically it. I think that either we got something wrong about the timing of Taln breaking, or, as you said, some force knowing how much longer Taln would hold out influenced events on Roshar. I wouldn't be surprised if Odium was behind the Sons of Honor.

I think it's pretty clear that Odium has been manipulating events on Roshar for a long time to ensure all the pieces were in the right place for the new desolation. Consider this rough timeline:

• Odium had been grooming Dalinar with the Thrill for decades to be his champion;
• Cultivation recognised that Dalinar was being primed to be a tool of Odium when he visited the Nightwatcher, soon after Gavilar's death, and began actively preparing counter measures (Dalinar, Taravangian & Lift);
• The Sons of Honor, including Gavilar, Amaram and Restares, having been led to believe that returning the Listener gods and causing the Desolation was necessary, have been working towards this goal for at least a few years before Gavilar was killed, so probably a decade or more;
• Gavilar just happened to discover the Listeners on an expedition south of the Shattered Plains, after they had been hidden for thousands of years, since the Recreance.
• Many spren had recognised something was happening and started to bond with humans even before Gavilar's death (Jasnah for example);
• Gavilar reveals the sphere to Eshonai, triggering his Assasination and the War of Reckoning;
• Ulim has been on Roshar, 'guiding' Venli, for at least a few years, and certainly before Taln turned up in Kholinar -- Note that Ulim tells Venli that she was "then one that escaped", suggesting that she managed to somehow get out before the Oathpact was broken;
• Taln turns up in Kholinar, signalling that the Oathpact is broken and releasing the voidspren and Fused from Braize;
• Venli convinces Eshonai to adopt Storm form and the Everstorm is conjured soon after, possibly allowing the Fused to make the jump from the CR to the PR?

Too many of these things seem to point toward a coordinated plan by Odium, focused on preparing the Listeners to be receptive for the Fused in time for the Desolation. The timing of all this action doesn't seem random, because it's quite possible that he could have attempted any of these things with any of the generations between the Recreance and the present generation*. The only factor completely out of his control was when Taln broke. But the fact that Odium's preparations began at least two decades in advance of Taln's appearance on Roshar, he must have had some prior knowledge that the Oathpact would break when it did. The most obvious answer to me is that he was able to predict the approximate time of Taln's breaking through Fortune.

*side thought: Did he perhaps try something similar in the past with the Sunmaker?

[StormingTexan he/him]

35 minutes ago, Kaleid said:

However, the second point has been proven to be incorrect by the Everstorm - a phenomenon which has never occurred before.  Therefore the Stormfather's conclusions are drawn from faulty information. He could be wrong.

Yeah but The Storm Father was the one that explained what the Everstorm does so how is he disproving his own conclusion? As far as I know his explanation is correct on the Everstorm so we choose to accept this but not what he says about Taln breaking? I agree there is a possibility he is wrong but I think he should be given the benefit of the doubt and assume he is correct without any concrete proof to the contrary. 

Quote

 

ODIUM HAS CREATED HIS OWN STORM. THE FUSED DO NOT RETURN TO DAMNATION WHEN KILLED. THEY ARE REBORN IN THE NEXT EVERSTORM.

Sanderson, Brandon. Oathbringer: Book Three of the Stormlight Archive (p. 408). Tom Doherty Associates. Kindle Edition.