[OB] Too much to be a coincidence

[+Hoiditthroughthegrapevine he/him]

45 minutes ago, StormingTexan said:

Yeah but The Storm Father was the one that explained what the Everstorm does so how is he disproving his own conclusion? As far as I know his explanation is correct on the Everstorm so we choose to accept this but not what he says about Taln breaking? I agree there is a possibility he is wrong but I think he should be given the benefit of the doubt and assume he is correct without any concrete proof to the contrary.

I agree with Storming Texan, it's pretty clear as I read it that Taln broke, but I do like the thought behind Odium having found a way to bypass the Oathpact @Leyrann.

But one of the main hinges upon which this theory swings is that it's suspicious that these two important events happened nearly simultaneously, this to me seems to ignore the fact that many such instances of ridiculous serendipity also happen. I think this is the outcome of Brandon trying to write a compelling story where items of significance to the narrative are synced to give added metaphoric weight to important events. I'll just list a couple highly suspicious coincident moments in SLA:

1. Jasnah's confrontation with Ivory during the Night of Gavilar's assassination (this is interesting story telling, and the coincidence of two important events happening simultaneously is significant and has metaphoric meaning (i.e. this is the point where the world is on course for the Next Desolation and Jasnah possibly becomes the first KR))
2. Kaladin's swearing of the 2nd Oath (in the Alethi warcamps) in time to reach Dalinar right as he's plummeting to his death in Narak (once again, awesome in terms of storytelling but highly improbable from a strict timeline point of view unless this also has metaphoric meaning, which I think it does)
3. Adolin, Shallan, Kaladin and Co traveling slowly through Shadesmar to reach Thaylen city, only to arrive right at the time that Dalinar unites the 3 realms and creates a Realm-transitioning perpendicularity (once again, this is awesome story telling, but the sheer coincidence of a long 2 week-ish (don't remember the exact time it took) trip through Shadesmar, to arrive at the Shadesmar Oathgate within 15 minutes of when Dalinar Ascended, talk about incredible serendipity, but also this is a powerful metaphor).

I think that this is a great line of speculation, but my gut instinct still tells me that Taln has truly been broken. And @StormingTexan's point that the Stormfather himself (who is a big piece of Honor's Investiture) believes that Taln is broken makes me think that this is the right determination. Just like Ash can tell when Jezrien is dead, I think that the stormfather has a special linkage with all the Heralds and can tell without too much effort if they are cracked and broken.

[Messremb]

1 hour ago, Varion said:

But the fact that Odium's preparations began at least two decades in advance of Taln's appearance on Roshar, he must have had some prior knowledge that the Oathpact would break when it did. The most obvious answer to me is that he was able to predict the approximate time of Taln's breaking through Fortune.

Odium is supposed to be one of the better shards at predicting the future isn't he? I always figured that, because of the fear of telling\predicting the future, that it was associated with Odium, and this seems to confirm that. I don't think any of this is coincidence, I think Odium has been planning this for 4500 years, and the only 2 things that seem to be messing him up are Cultivations minor interference, as she supposedly is good at seeing the future as well, so I think she can mess with his plans, And Renarin. I cant wait till we figure out more about why he is such a blind spot for Odium.

[digitalbusker he/him]

There could be some wiggle room in the timing of Desolations, depending on what the actual mechanics are. Like, what if it's not enough for a Herald to be willing to break, what if they have to be asked? It could be as simple as "Once a day we haul Taln out of his torture chamber and stand him up in front of the door marked EXIT". If he opens it, boom, Oathpact suspended, Desolation start.

If we need a couple more decades to make sure the remnants of the Last Legion are desperate enough to take up the old forms again, maybe we just forget to give him the opportunity for a while.