[OB] Whodunnit

[Hero-of-Pages he/him]

So, for those of us who have read up to chapter 9 of Oathbringer, I'm sure there is a lot of speculation as to who this new copycat killer.

 

Here's my take on it. First, I'm gonna make a list of suspects, divided between those who saw Sadeas's body, and those who had the information network necessary to know the details of the murder.

*Warning, long post ahead*

People who saw the body: 

Adolin, Renarin, Shallan, Dalinar, Navani, Teft, Sigzil, Lopen, Sebarial, Palona, and Kalami. Other than that we know a few members of Sadeas's army found him, a female scout found him, and that there were a couple other members of bridge four.

 

People who likely learned the details of Sadeas's death:

Aladar and his daughter, May both learned about it. Ialai and Elhokar both also learned of the death. Aside from that I don't think I could be faulted for assuming that the Ghostbloods, Sons of Honor, and Diagram all have adequate information networks to learn the details of the murder.

 

So we now have a list of suspects. From this list I'm going to knock off those who have no foreseeable reason to have participated in this murder.

 

I'm going to immediately knock out the female scout, Sadeas's soldiers, Sebarial, Palona, and Kalami. While they technically could be the copy cat killer, we don't have any motive or plot driving reason for any of these people to have killed the victim (Perel).

 

Suspects left: Adolin, Renarin, Shallan, Dalinar, Navani, Teft, Sigzil, Lopen, other Bridge Four members, Aladar, May, Ialai, Elhokar, the Ghostbloods, the Sons of Honor, and the Diagram.

 

Shallan is pretty easy to knock out, since we saw the copy cat murder from her perspective, and it definitely didn't seem like she did it. I think it's fair to toss her out.

Dalinar is another contender that I highly doubt did it. He has no reason to murder someone under an ally, and this runs contrary to his goals and who he is.

May has been mentioned fairly often recently, which is interesting, but I don't think she arranged for the murder. We don't know enough about her to be sure, but it seems like a stretch that she would do this. Her father is allied with Sebarial, and in charge of investigating these cases anyway. I'd say she probably didn't do it.

Bridge Four is full of misfits, but I don't think any of them have any reason to have done this. It would certainly be out of character for Teft, Rock, Sigzil, and Lopen. I highly doubt anyone from Bridge Four did it. It is worth noting that Bridge Four was the first to find the body however.

 

Suspects remaining: Adolin, Renarin, Navani, Aladar, Ialai, Elhokar, The Ghostbloods, The Sons of Honor, The Diagram

Alright, let's go in order now.

Adolin: I've seen this theory floating around, So I figured I'd let Adolin get this far. I, however, don't think Adolin is capable of this, or has any reason to do so. He feels immense guilt for having murdered Sadeas, why would he go around killing random people? Unless he absolutely went crazy I just don't see this happening.

Verdict: Highly improbable

Renarin: This is another common theory, with more merit in my opinion. Renarin has certainly been acting very strangely recently, and it seems like he might know that Adolin killed Sadeas. Furthermore, we don't really know Renarin that well, and don't know what he is capable of. Maybe he killed this guy to throw others off the trail. Nonetheless, I think there are several reasons to doubt this theory. A couple of my points against it might be unsubstantiated, such as me believing that Renarin isn't capable of cold-blooded murder. My biggest problem with this theory is the description of the crime. It seemed like there was an extended fight, and the Perel was stabbed in the eye. I don't think that Renarin has the skill necessary to kill someone that precisely, or even to properly put up a fight. Stormlight at the time was limited, and neither of his surges would help him in a fight.

Verdict: Possible, but not plausible

Navani: Unlike Dalinar, I could see Navani having somebody murdered to protect Adolin. She might even have the connections to make it happen. The problem is, I doubt she would target Perel specifically, and I find it unlikely that she has discovered Adolin's role is Sadeas's death yet.

Verdict: Unlikely

Aladar: Assuming Aladar is truly allied with Dalinar I find it very unlikely that he had any role in the murder. Even if he isn't as loyal as many believe I think he wouldn't act on his own initiative to participate in these murders. I do however, think there is a possibility that Aladar is working with Ialai. I think he may have gone to fight with Dalinar as a spy for Sadeas, and that's why Sadeas knew to come to Urithiru. I think that there is only a 5% chance that this is true, but if it is, then his position as High Prince of Information would be incredibly useful to Ialai, so she could draw out the murderer of Sadeas, and assassinate high profile targets, all the while being protected from suspicion by Aladar. Unlikely, but an interesting thought.

Verdict: Unlikely

Ialai: I personally think that the Ialai theory holds decent merit. She could be doing this to make sure that there is an investigation of who murdered Sadeas, or as a form of revenge. The issue is that it seems a bit obvious, and the motives don't quite line up.

Verdict: Plausable 

Elhokar: I originally had a pretty cool theory about why Elhokar would have this done, but I seem to have forgotten it. This could be a power play to undermine Dalinar's rule I guess. I'll post my other reasoning if I remember it. I personally think Elhokar isn't subtle enough to have planned it, but it could be a cool twist.

Verdict: Possible, but not plausible

The Ghostbloods: Of the three secret societies, I think this one is most likely to be involved. Either as a form of control over Shallan, or knowing that they have a scapegoat, and thus letting them kill targets without as much suspicion. 

Verdict: Plausible.

The Sons of Honor: No foreseeable motive, but a possibility. We don't know enough.

Verdict: Unlikely

The Diagram: No foreseeable motive, but a possibility. We don't know enough.

Verdict: Unlikely

 

*Wipes forehead*

What a long post. Tell me your thoughts!

For those who didn't want to read, here is my conclusion.

Highly improbable: Adolin, Shallan, Dalinar, Bridge Four, Sebarial, Palona, Kalami, Female Scout, Sadeas's Soldiers, May

Unlikely: Navani, Aladar, The Diagram, The Sons of Honor

Possible, but not plausible: Elhokar, Renarin

Plausible: Ialai, The Ghostbloods

 

Edited September 14, 2017 by heroofpages

[teknopathetic he/him]

I think the most obvious answer would be that Sadeas' wife used her spy-ring and is now enacting a revenge plan while pursuing the goals she and her husband had laid out. 

[Goldencompounder]

I think that renarin is the one who killed this man. 

He had been acting strangely. 

When he heard dalinar's description of the champion of odium, he was suddenly wide eyed, as if he recognized the vision. But how can that be, he never heard about that part of the vision before.

Perhaps since we don't know how long he has been a radiant, he has learnt to control these visions somewhat. 

And when he heard dalinar's description, he realized it from the visions he had been having from the opposite perspective. 

 

Now I have to get back to topic. 

I think renarin was the one who killed the man. I think that odium is using renarin, like Ginny in Harry Potter 2, or like Marsh and ruin. 

Odium is manipulating renarin to kill the man. 

Hemalurgy can be used anywhere in the cosmere. And it never explained how renarin can see now. I think that a hemalurgic spike to see had been placed inside renarin by odium, we don't know when it could have been placed. 

Also renarin made it near obvious that he knew what had happened with adolin, because of odium.

 

[Crucible of Shards he/him]

I like your analysis. Makes sense to me.

[Pammie]

Great analysis! Upvote! You made the suspect list very clear and I agree with all of your conclusions. Personally, I think that it makes the most sense if Ialai was the culprit. Sure, the Ghostbloods could be doing it, but it seems a bit too blatant for them. Plus, there have to be better ways to control Shallan, and it seems like they would have bigger fish to fry at this point. 

But here's what we know about Ialai: 1) She shares her husbands sociopathic ideologies, 2) she has an extended spy network capable of carrying out assassinations, 3) she has the most to gain from destroying House Kholin's reputation, and 4) even though they were insane, it seemed like both Sadeas and Ialai both genuinely cared for one another, so this could be her way to exact revenge. If so, it's brilliant. She already as the perfect method to do so, it'll throw dirt on Dalinar's and Elhokar's reputation (especially if it's revealed who the original murderer was) and it will probably, eventually drag the murderer to light. 

[Salkara]

If we make one major assumption without any evidence to back it up, I believe Ialai moves from "Plausible" to "Highly likely."

The assumption I would make is that Ialai knows Adolin killed her husband but can't (or won't) prove it (yet). As I mentioned, I have no evidence to support this assumption, but it seems like something possible for her character. She has a network of spies. She probably knows (or can guess) at the enmity between Adolin and Sadeas. I believe she can probably put it together, but there's no proof that she has.

If Ialai knows who murdered Sadeas, it makes sense to me that she's behind the copycat murder. She would probably assume (correctly) that Dalinar's response to the 2nd murder would be to appoint someone to investigate it, and she'd also probably assume (again, correctly) that person would be Adolin. She then has a couple more copycat murders performed (among Dalinar's allies) before providing proof that Adolin killed Sadeas. Everyone then assumes that Adolin is behind the other murders; Dalinar must distance himself from his own son; Dalinar's allies distance themselves from him. All of these outcomes line up with what seem like reasonable goals for Ialai (e.g. see her husband's murderer shamed and brought to justice and see her husband's enemy cast down).

Again, there's no proof Ialai knows Adolin killed Sadeas. Maybe she doesn't actually know Adolin did it and just believes she can pin it on him. Either way, I believe she stands to profit the most from Adolin's appointment as investigator for his own murder, which leads me to believe she's behind the 2nd murder.

 

Now to move from "only slightly crazy" to "absolutely insane." Ialai probably believes Adolin is an easy target because she's smarter than him (not that Adolin is an idiot, but there have been a couple mentions of him not keeping pace mentally with other characters). With Renarin's future sight and Shallan's lightweaving, Adolin does have two assets that can help him out. His best outcome would likely be admitting to murdering Sadeas (and accepting punishment for it) while Ialai is proven as the mastermind behind the others. Does anybody actually see Adolin getting out of this without accepting punishment for murdering Sadeas? Punishment could easily be a loss of rank, loss of blade and/or plate, jail time, or a combination thereof. Now, I've been a proponent of Adolin not having a future Nahel bond because I didn't believe he was broken enough for one; however, if the plot plays out like this, I can see the stress of investigating his own murder and the shame of his punishment leading him to be broken enough for a Nahel bond.

Edited September 13, 2017 by Salkara
Didn't realize masked curse words violated rules. Edited to remove offending word.

[WhiteLeeopard she/her]

My top picks are Ghostbloods, followed by Ialai. 

Ghostbloods reasoning 1: use as a cover to get rid of people they want to kill it. Uncertain, they must have easier ways to get rid of people.

Ghostbloods reasoning 2: gain more control over Shallan, or call it like bringing her brothers back, a gift by removing suspicion from the Kholins

Ghostbloods reasoning 3: throw shade on Kholins to get more power, and because they have a past of killing Kholins

Ialai reasoning 1: to force back focus on investigation

Ialai reasoning 2: revenge to hurt Kholins

Ialai reasoning 3: try to float the murderer of Sadeas up

Truth be told, the hardest part of this murder is that its so hard to know who it will hurt and who it will benefit. I suspect it will depend on who can play the cards best. For it been Ialai its dangerous, as its a gambit where if she loses she basically loses the entire game, she'd likely be executed or exiled. Ghostbloods are a bit higher on my list as they are very cold-blooded and controlled. They also have practice at keeping secrets. 

Adolin could be the one to benefit or lose the most, could be found guilty or be left completely in the clear. I do however think he needs help fast, mainly for moral support, partly to help him juggle the balls, as its going to be a complicated game. Renarin is my third pick for it, but quite behind the other two. He is likely been just a Truthwatcher, even if there may be something iffy with his radiancy. Of course he loves his brother so much he could have done it in an attempt to help, but doesn't entirely fit.

I seriously doubt Sanderson will show any more posession on SA than the parshendi. Its too cheap and easy to say a villain is a villain because they are possed, and it makes for worse villains. Give us a complicated, tortured villain and we will love him much more than generic ones.

Edited September 13, 2017 by WhiteLeeopard

[Pammie]

I keep seeing people assume that either Ialai or the Ghostbloods are doing this because they know who the true culprit is, but why? Adolin and Sadeas were alone, in the dark, and based on Adolin's personality and alibi, it doesn't seem plausible that anyone would suspect him. I guess someone could've been spying behind the corner, but it seems more probable to me that Adolin committed the perfect crime, which makes this murder arc so much more interesting. If he never admitted to it, no one would know, but now someone is using his murder for some type of personal gain and he's supposed to find the murderer. What happens if he never comes up with a suspect? He could try to find the copycat, but is it right to blame them for the first murder also?

[FollowYourMuse she/her]

One other point on Ialai, we see many scenarios where Sadeas actually kept her from assassinations or her talk of over throwing Ehlokar. 

Without him she is free to plot and use her spies and assasins

[hypatia she/her]

To be frank - I really hope it was Ialai or the Ghostbloods - even Renarin.

I'm frightened this could be only one of Sadeas soldiers who thought this man was the murderer and this will start a vandetta - just because Adolin doesn't confess.

This would break him - being guilty of meaningless deaths because of his silence.

[Salkara]

17 minutes ago, Pammie said:

I keep seeing people assume that either Ialai or the Ghostbloods are doing this because they know who the true culprit is, but why?

In my case, I believe Adolin's stated reasoning of "nobody knows we were down here," is just a bit too convenient. I find it too unbelievable to think the whereabouts of a highprince and a highprince's son would be that unknown. Perhaps people won't know their exact locations at every moment, but someone's got to be able to place the two of them in the general vicinity.

13 minutes ago, hypatia said:

This would break him - being guilty of meaningless deaths because of his silence.

Can't be a Knight Radiant without being broken first, right? Not enough cracks in the soul for Investiture to seep in.

[WhiteLeeopard she/her]

21 minutes ago, Pammie said:

I keep seeing people assume that either Ialai or the Ghostbloods are doing this because they know who the true culprit is, but why? Adolin and Sadeas were alone, in the dark, and based on Adolin's personality and alibi, it doesn't seem plausible that anyone would suspect him. I guess someone could've been spying behind the corner, but it seems more probable to me that Adolin committed the perfect crime, which makes this murder arc so much more interesting. If he never admitted to it, no one would know, but now someone is using his murder for some type of personal gain and he's supposed to find the murderer. What happens if he never comes up with a suspect? He could try to find the copycat, but is it right to blame them for the first murder also?

No, my entire argument was based off the assumption no-one knows it was Adolin. But the Kholins will be prime suspects, which is why I rolled out all the rest. I am assuming no-one except maybe Renarin knows, as a WoB basically Adolin hadn't been seen. 

[Hischier]

Well given that him and Sadeas had a wrestling match before Adolin killed him, is it possible Adolin left some evidence on the body that would cast him under suspicion? Maybe something as simple as him using the knife with his left hand? Remember that the body supposedly wasn't found for a day, so someone we don't know about could've come across it.

I do think the most plausible explanation right now is that whoever the murderer is knows it's Adolin and is sending him a message.  

Also, it'd help to know who the victim (Perel) is. 

I think your suspects are the most likely right now (Ghostbloods and Ialai).  

[Hero-of-Pages he/him]

1 minute ago, Hischier said:

Also, it'd help to know who the victim (Perel) is. 

For some reason I never thought to check on that. Gonna go edit it in.

[Hischier]

@heroofpages I don't think we know anything about him yet. But someone pointed out earlier that a guy named Perel used the expression 'treading water' (and had to explain what it meant to Adolin) and someone named Perel gets killed in a bath chamber, which seems way too coincidental.

Apparently they're two different people (the former was under Adolin's command and therefore would've been Kholin) but that's a funny coincidence if the naming was unintentional on BS's part.  

[iamstick]

Quote

Also, it'd help to know who the victim (Perel) is. 

• “[T]he corpse had been a lighteyed officer named Vedekar Perel. He was from Sebarial's army, but Shallan didn't know him”
• He participated in the fight against the Parshendi (“Perel," he said to one of his field commanders, "tell the men to get ready for the mark. We're going to charge across those bridges onto the southern plateau...Storms, I wish we had archers. Go!”)
  at the end of WoR
• He probably came from a coastal or lake region ("Swimming term, sir")

Further:

• Ialai was in the vicinity at the time Sadeas died, along with a few of her scribes and several of his soldiers.
• Sanderson does not mention the make-up of Adolin's scouting party, which could reasonably have consisted of Kholin, Sebarial, Roion, and Aladar members.
• After, Adolin shard-cut away his chalk marks, rejoined a scouting party and pretended he'd been there all along.