radianz Posted July 15, 2016 Posted July 15, 2016 I guess I can no longer say I can't wait for the next Stormlight archives book; that would be untrue. I know it takes time,...I just want to know WHEN. I don't care about the other series, I'm selfish, i don't care about being gracious, patience be d#*!!ed. I JUST WANT TO READ THE NEXT BOOK In The Series! 1
Oversleep Posted July 15, 2016 Posted July 15, 2016 Right now we're looking for Fall 2016 to the end of writing and about year later (probably Fall) 2017 to come out. If you want to know why it takes such a long time between the end of writing to the publication, I'll explain: lots and lots of art, both interior and exterior; revisions; continuity; editor's going through; more revisions; redactor going through; revisions. Well, I guess. I hope somebody who's more familiar with the process of publishing a book could correct me and offer a better explanation.
Sunbird she/her Posted July 15, 2016 Posted July 15, 2016 Writing a Stormlight book is also a huge undertaking because each book is like 1000+ pages long. All that text has to be checked for continuity and grammar/punctuation and formatted properly for the print edition or ebook. And that can only happen after the alpha and beta readers have read through it and given their feedback and Brandon has done edits/revisions having to do with major issues like character development and the plot. Keep in mind that he's setting up plot elements in these earlier books that will be a big deal in later books, even if we readers can't see the "big picture" yet.
Stormgate he/him Posted July 15, 2016 Posted July 15, 2016 Although for all we know, someone somewhere on the forum accidentally guessed exactly what's going to happen. Unlikely, but possible.
Argel he/him Posted July 15, 2016 Posted July 15, 2016 We should mention that the shjort stories collection Arcanum Unbound is coming out this fall (IIRC), and will have a new short story in at about Lift (one off the SA characters). So there is something to look forward to this year.
Kelsier Kenobi Posted July 15, 2016 Posted July 15, 2016 13 hours ago, Oversleep said: Right now we're looking for Fall 2016 to the end of writing and about year later (probably Fall) 2017 to come out. If you want to know why it takes such a long time between the end of writing to the publication, I'll explain: lots and lots of art, both interior and exterior; revisions; continuity; editor's going through; more revisions; redactor going through; revisions. Well, I guess. I hope somebody who's more familiar with the process of publishing a book could correct me and offer a better explanation. I don't expect it to take quite that long this time. Didn't Brandon recently say he was sending chapters to his editor as he finished them this time? With the hope of course being able to turn in a more polished 1st draft. I would guess that should help speed up publication. Maybe Summer 2017 rather than Fall 2017?
Ammanas Posted July 15, 2016 Posted July 15, 2016 2 hours ago, Kelsier Kenobi said: I don't expect it to take quite that long this time. Didn't Brandon recently say he was sending chapters to his editor as he finished them this time? With the hope of course being able to turn in a more polished 1st draft. I would guess that should help speed up publication. Maybe Summer 2017 rather than Fall 2017? I posted this in the release date thread of General Brandon discussion, but here it is... Brandon did a reddit q and a a few days ago and it looks like a November 2017 release. Brandon explained: Originally, Peter asked for eighteen months, and I was pushing for six months, from finishing. (In reference to the publication date.) Eventually, we compromised on a year, assuming we were able to make workable this method of editing sections as I finished them. So the whole year thing is already accounting for the new revision style. November or October next year is very likely. 3
Radiant Returned he/him Posted July 15, 2016 Posted July 15, 2016 I feel your anticipation, I can barely wait for Oathbreaker. I also really want The Lost Metal and the Elantris sequel to be out soon. That being said, in the last 12 months we've gotten 2 Mistborn novels, a 10th anniversary edition of Elantris, and a graphic novel of White Sand. Waiting for books by guys like George Martin and Patrick Rothfuss make waiting for a Sanderson novel a cake walk. 4
galendo Posted July 15, 2016 Posted July 15, 2016 2 hours ago, Radiant Returned said: I feel your anticipation, I can barely wait for Oathbreaker. I also really want The Lost Metal and the Elantris sequel to be out soon. That being said, in the last 12 months we've gotten 2 Mistborn novels, a 10th anniversary edition of Elantris, and a graphic novel of White Sand. Waiting for books by guys like George Martin and Patrick Rothfuss make waiting for a Sanderson novel a cake walk. While I semi-wholeheartedly agree with you (Brandon does pump out books like nobody's business), I also sympathize with the OP pretty strongly. Stormlight Archive is the only Sanderson series I really care about. The next Mistborn book can come out tomorrow or twenty years from now, for all I care. And that's the non-SA book of his I anticipate the most, other than maybe Mistborn era 2, book 1. For comparison: Stormlight 3 is a day-one purchase. Mistborn 3 is an "I'll read it if and when my local library gets a copy."
Guest Posted July 15, 2016 Posted July 15, 2016 8 hours ago, Kelsier Kenobi said: I don't expect it to take quite that long this time. Didn't Brandon recently say he was sending chapters to his editor as he finished them this time? With the hope of course being able to turn in a more polished 1st draft. I would guess that should help speed up publication. Maybe Summer 2017 rather than Fall 2017? I think we will be lucky if we do get it in 2017. The way things are going, I do not expect it until spring 2018.
Argel he/him Posted July 16, 2016 Posted July 16, 2016 Not hard to imagine given that the current target is November 2017. Easy to slip into 2018....
Sunbird she/her Posted July 17, 2016 Posted July 17, 2016 On 7/14/2016 at 10:28 PM, Stormgate said: Although for all we know, someone somewhere on the forum accidentally guessed exactly what's going to happen. Unlikely, but possible. As you said, unlikely but possible.
Assassin in Burgundy he/him Posted July 17, 2016 Posted July 17, 2016 Just out of curiosity, when do people think the entire series (10 books) will be done?
Ammanas Posted July 17, 2016 Posted July 17, 2016 58 minutes ago, Assassin in Burgundy said: Just out of curiosity, when do people think the entire series (10 books) will be done? It usually takes 4 years or so for a SA book to come out plus he said there will be a longer gap between beginning the second arc (book 6). My guess is 2046
Radiant Returned he/him Posted July 17, 2016 Posted July 17, 2016 His outline was for him to publish a new one every year and a half/two years, but so far it's obviously been 4 years for each book. And the break between the two SA series will probably be at least 5-7 years for the intermittent Mistborn series and other series. So after 2017 has Oathbreaker, probably be 2025 before Book #5 is published, and from there might be as late as 2030-2032 before he starts working on the second series. So at 5 books, 4 years each, I could see it being 2050 or so before it's all done. And for people who enjoy the entire Cosmere collection, there's still the final Mistborn series and possibly Dragonsteel books. So, theoretically, the whole sequence could take until 2060 to finish. At which point Sanderson would be 85 years old :/
galendo Posted July 17, 2016 Posted July 17, 2016 Wow, that's...kind of scary, really. Even if we assume a hyper-fast three years per book for the remaining eight books, that's twenty-four years total. I just ran the numbers (based on 2013 data, but I doubt life expectancy has changed drastically since), and the probability that a forty year-old male (e.g., Brandon Sanderson) lives to be sixty-five is only about 84%. If we take a more pessimistic assumption, but one more in line with historical data, of four years per book with a five year gap between, that's about thirty-five years, allowing two years off for progress on Oathbringer so far. The chance that the same forty year-old male reaches his seventy-sixth birthday is only about 66%. Bear in mind, these are only the chances of surviving that long. There are numerous reasons besides death that might impair an author's ability to write or otherwise delay his progress. Even for an optimist, you're looking probably at a 20-25% chance that Stormlight Archive remains unfinished. For a pessimist, it's probably a coin flip, if not worse. For the curious, here are the odds that a man (in the United States) celebrating his fortieth birthday today lives to reach a particular age (through age 100), based on 2013 data: Age Chance to reach given age 40 1 41 0.997908 42 0.995673 43 0.993265 44 0.990654 45 0.987808 46 0.9847 47 0.981306 48 0.97759 49 0.973516 50 0.969051 51 0.964169 52 0.958847 53 0.95306 54 0.946782 55 0.939993 56 0.93266 57 0.924765 58 0.916319 59 0.907346 60 0.897853 61 0.8878 62 0.877139 63 0.865852 64 0.853928 65 0.841333 66 0.827996 67 0.81384 68 0.798814 69 0.782871 70 0.765948 71 0.747927 72 0.728711 73 0.708277 74 0.686627 75 0.66373 76 0.639456 77 0.613701 78 0.586485 79 0.557866 80 0.527887 81 0.496529 82 0.463821 83 0.429924 84 0.39507 85 0.359535 86 0.323638 87 0.287759 88 0.252339 89 0.217879 90 0.184914 91 0.15398 92 0.125567 93 0.100083 94 0.077809 95 0.05888 96 0.043346 97 0.031043 98 0.02164 99 0.0147 100 0.009751 1
Guest Posted July 18, 2016 Posted July 18, 2016 4 hours ago, galendo said: Reveal hidden contents Age Chance to reach given age 40 1 41 0.997908 42 0.995673 43 0.993265 44 0.990654 45 0.987808 46 0.9847 47 0.981306 48 0.97759 49 0.973516 50 0.969051 51 0.964169 52 0.958847 53 0.95306 54 0.946782 55 0.939993 56 0.93266 57 0.924765 58 0.916319 59 0.907346 60 0.897853 61 0.8878 62 0.877139 63 0.865852 64 0.853928 65 0.841333 66 0.827996 67 0.81384 68 0.798814 69 0.782871 70 0.765948 71 0.747927 72 0.728711 73 0.708277 74 0.686627 75 0.66373 76 0.639456 77 0.613701 78 0.586485 79 0.557866 80 0.527887 81 0.496529 82 0.463821 83 0.429924 84 0.39507 85 0.359535 86 0.323638 87 0.287759 88 0.252339 89 0.217879 90 0.184914 91 0.15398 92 0.125567 93 0.100083 94 0.077809 95 0.05888 96 0.043346 97 0.031043 98 0.02164 99 0.0147 100 0.009751 Isn't that a bit morbid? I personally do not doubt Brandon will finish the Stormlight Archive unless something terrible an unplanned happens such as disease or a plane crash This being said, my personal main source of angst is the delay in between the books. Having seen how negative prolonged delays in between tomes of an unfinished series can be, I deeply worry about Stormlight. In other words, the longer the readers have to wait for a book, the more critical they get, the less patient they are with the proposed narrative and the more disillusioned they become with the series. Most of the negative critics for WoT happened because the readers felt they had to wait too long for books they considered disappointing because the main narrative either didn't move forward fast enough or their favorite character didn't get enough page time. It is terrible when you have to wait for several years to read an arc, only to find out the next book doesn't tackle it which leaves you with waiting for several more years to read it. I wish for Stormlight to avoid this fate, but given the release pace, it seems inevitable it will happen.
Landis963 he/him Posted July 18, 2016 Posted July 18, 2016 (edited) In Brandon's defense, he's been much better about updates than, say, GRRM. That'll help stave off fan resentment and disillusionment. Edited July 18, 2016 by Landis963
Naurock Posted July 18, 2016 Posted July 18, 2016 On 7/15/2016 at 11:03 AM, Radiant Returned said: I feel your anticipation, I can barely wait for Oathbreaker. I also really want The Lost Metal and the Elantris sequel to be out soon. That being said, in the last 12 months we've gotten 2 Mistborn novels, a 10th anniversary edition of Elantris, and a graphic novel of White Sand. Waiting for books by guys like George Martin and Patrick Rothfuss make waiting for a Sanderson novel a cake walk. Lol, true story bud. I quit reading GoT cuz of the 6 year wait for the newest book. I'm kinda new to the Cosmere and have only read SA books and Warbreaker. Working on Elantris now. 1
galendo Posted July 18, 2016 Posted July 18, 2016 7 hours ago, maxal said: Isn't that a bit morbid? I personally do not doubt Brandon will finish the Stormlight Archive unless something terrible an unplanned happens such as disease or a plane crash It kind of is morbid, I'll admit, but upon running the numbers, I thought the results significant enough to report. Statistically, there's a very real chance that The Stormlight Archive doesn't get finished by the same author who started it, and I think it's important that new (and current) readers are aware of that. The possibility may affect their desire to start and/or continue the series. The Wheel of Time is an obvious parallel; Robert Jordan was 42 when The Eye of the World was first published; he died 17 years later, his series unfinished. Obviously, I hope Brandon Sanderson lives longer, and in better health, than Robert Jordan did. This isn't me comparing the quality of the two authors; this is me reflecting that 58 seems like a terribly young age to die. But it does happen, and with reasonable frequency. I wish Brandon the best, partly because I wish most everyone the best and partly from the very selfish desire to read The Stormlight Archive in its full glory, but I also think it's important to be clear and not hide the risks otherwise. Quote This being said, my personal main source of angst is the delay in between the books. Having seen how negative prolonged delays in between tomes of an unfinished series can be, I deeply worry about Stormlight. In other words, the longer the readers have to wait for a book, the more critical they get, the less patient they are with the proposed narrative and the more disillusioned they become with the series. Most of the negative critics for WoT happened because the readers felt they had to wait too long for books they considered disappointing because the main narrative either didn't move forward fast enough or their favorite character didn't get enough page time. It is terrible when you have to wait for several years to read an arc, only to find out the next book doesn't tackle it which leaves you with waiting for several more years to read it. Strangely enough, this isn't much of a concern for me at all. It's true that people got very disillusioned with the Wheel of Time. I did myself, and I didn't finally get around to finishing the series until earlier this year. But I didn't get disillusioned by the delay; it was because of the drop in quality. Yes, the main narrative didn't move forward fast enough. But that's because something like a third of each of books seven, eight, nine, and ten were dedicated to seeing events that had already happened as of the end of the previous book (often through the eyes of minor characters whose importance in the big picture was unclear). Moving back in time like this is dangerous because the reader wants to find out what happens next, not what happened a while back but wasn't important enough to mention at the time. Basically, I think that some questionable decisions were what drove readers away from WoT, not the delay between the books. As long as Sanderson doesn't repeat those mistakes, I think SA will be fine in this regard. My own worries for SA are somewhat different: I think Brandon might have written himself into a corner in some regards. For instance, I'm pretty certain that there's no good way to satisfactorily explain the Recreance. I mean, I can't get a dozen friends to all agree on what to have for dinner on any given night. The idea that I'd get them all to betray their closest friends seems...well, pretty inconceivable. I do not think that there will be a satisfactory explanation for this, or for a few other things. And unsatisfactory explanations for mysteries (or mysteries left too long unexplained) are another thing that can drive readers away.
Assassin in Burgundy he/him Posted July 18, 2016 Posted July 18, 2016 But then again, if Brandon Sanderson dies/is unable to write, I'd be willing to bet that somewhere in his will he has an author who he'd want to finish the Stormlight Archive. It's just too big of a project for him not to have some kind of insurance.
Radiant Returned he/him Posted July 18, 2016 Posted July 18, 2016 14 hours ago, Naurock said: Lol, true story bud. I quit reading GoT cuz of the 6 year wait for the newest book. I'm kinda new to the Cosmere and have only read SA books and Warbreaker. Working on Elantris now. I love SA, but Mistborn is just as good in my opinion (at least the first 3, the newest 3 aren't quite as epic but I still enjoyed them a lot). I'm re-reading Warbreaker right now, re-read Elantris earlier this year, would highly recommend you reading Mistborn after that. If you're just a fan of SA, I wouldn't worry too much about him finishing this series barring a tragic accident/illness. But him finishing the Cosmere completely has me a little worried. Right now he's averaging about a Cosmere novel per year since 2006, of varying word counts (most are in the 200Ks, Mistborn Era 2 are 100Ks, SA are all deep in 300K), so at that pace he might be able to finish the whole thing by the time he's in his 70s. But those numbers might be misleading because in the future he won't a) be finishing off another author's series but also b ) probably won't be able to churn out 200K word novels every single year like he did in 2006-09, because now he's a lot more famous and has side projects and therefore less time to write. Regardless, it's not really anything to worry about right now. All of this is way down the line, all the current book series he's working on will almost certainly be finished, it just might take the first cycle of SA another decade at most.
Guest Posted July 18, 2016 Posted July 18, 2016 12 hours ago, galendo said: It kind of is morbid, I'll admit, but upon running the numbers, I thought the results significant enough to report. Statistically, there's a very real chance that The Stormlight Archive doesn't get finished by the same author who started it, and I think it's important that new (and current) readers are aware of that. The possibility may affect their desire to start and/or continue the series. The Wheel of Time is an obvious parallel; Robert Jordan was 42 when The Eye of the World was first published; he died 17 years later, his series unfinished. Obviously, I hope Brandon Sanderson lives longer, and in better health, than Robert Jordan did. This isn't me comparing the quality of the two authors; this is me reflecting that 58 seems like a terribly young age to die. But it does happen, and with reasonable frequency. I wish Brandon the best, partly because I wish most everyone the best and partly from the very selfish desire to read The Stormlight Archive in its full glory, but I also think it's important to be clear and not hide the risks otherwise. Strangely enough, this isn't much of a concern for me at all. It's true that people got very disillusioned with the Wheel of Time. I did myself, and I didn't finally get around to finishing the series until earlier this year. But I didn't get disillusioned by the delay; it was because of the drop in quality. Yes, the main narrative didn't move forward fast enough. But that's because something like a third of each of books seven, eight, nine, and ten were dedicated to seeing events that had already happened as of the end of the previous book (often through the eyes of minor characters whose importance in the big picture was unclear). Moving back in time like this is dangerous because the reader wants to find out what happens next, not what happened a while back but wasn't important enough to mention at the time. Basically, I think that some questionable decisions were what drove readers away from WoT, not the delay between the books. As long as Sanderson doesn't repeat those mistakes, I think SA will be fine in this regard. My own worries for SA are somewhat different: I think Brandon might have written himself into a corner in some regards. For instance, I'm pretty certain that there's no good way to satisfactorily explain the Recreance. I mean, I can't get a dozen friends to all agree on what to have for dinner on any given night. The idea that I'd get them all to betray their closest friends seems...well, pretty inconceivable. I do not think that there will be a satisfactory explanation for this, or for a few other things. And unsatisfactory explanations for mysteries (or mysteries left too long unexplained) are another thing that can drive readers away. Robert Jordan suffered from a rare blood illness which caused his premature death. Had he not been sick, he would have no doubt finished his series. The longer delays for the later books have been partly blamed on his sickness or so I have heard, but then again, Jordan had a steady release pace which, even at its worst, was still faster than SA. Of course, no author ever plan on being sick, but at the age of 40, it seems reasonable to assume Brandon will be able to complete the Stormlight Archive. Still, I do think he'll need to pick up the pace or else the series will eventually suffer. From my understanding, and correct me if I am wrong, WoT suffered greatly during the middle books for several reasons. Yes, one of those reasons was a too slow paced main narrative and the fact the author spend a great deal of time working on story arc which the readers found boring, such as Perrin rescuing Faile or the Bowl of Wind are. Another reason was Path of Daggers which angered many fans by seeing the author completely omit fan's favorite Mat Cauthon's POV. Of course, the author's reasons were sound: the character had been injured and wasn't doing much else beside recovering, but the fans didn't care about that. All they cared about is they had to wait several years to get a book where their favorite character was completely absent meaning they had to wait another several years to read them and this, right here, is my main source of concern for SA. I do firmly believe this small example, which I have seen come up rather often on the WoT forums as a great source of irritation, indicate how dangerous epic fantasy can be. The author may have a sound plan, a decisive story arc which pleases him, which he believes is the best one, but the readers may have a completely different idea... The Path of Dagger incident highlights what happens when the readers expectations clashes with the author's intend. Was it a drop in quality? I personally did not find those middle books to have been badly written, they simply didn't focus on the story arcs the majority of the readers had come to expect, hence their disappointment. Unfortunately for myself, just looking at the long term plan for SA and I do know I may end up being one of those readers because the arcs proposed aren't the ones I had initially expected to read when I first created my 17th Shard account nor are they the ones I wish to read. Brandon will ultimately write what he believes is the best story and it isn't likely to be slow paced, but he is a world builder, so he may get scattered around trying to present too much of it. Already, the planning for SA3 indicate a large scattering around which isn't currently pleasing me. Of course, it may just be an impression and none of it may happen. He may struggle trying on certain plot arc in a satisfying way, such as the Recreance, this is true, but my personal fear is the book structure he has announced which I find very rigid and focused on characters I don't care much to read. As a character reader, this is a small scale tragedy. Going back to WoT, I would say I haven't personally felt the middle books were dragging mainly because I didn't have to wait for them. I do think it makes all the difference: you can be more patient with a less interesting book if you have the next one ready to read, but when you have been waiting for it for 4 years and it doesn't deliver on the one story arc you have been dying to read, then..... Well, it sucks for the reader. 6 hours ago, Assassin in Burgundy said: But then again, if Brandon Sanderson dies/is unable to write, I'd be willing to bet that somewhere in his will he has an author who he'd want to finish the Stormlight Archive. It's just too big of a project for him not to have some kind of insurance. I wouldn't bet on it: most authors would never want someone else to finish their work. It may be Brandon will be one of those who wishes it, but it may also not be. He certainly isn't running short on ideas, but I would personally prefer if he focused on the series he currently has as opposed to start new ones. I fear he has picked up too many projects and let's not kid ourselves here: the prolonged delay for SA3 is directly linked to the amount of side projects he has undertaken. His initial plan was to finish writing the book for late winter or early spring, now he set it to October, but he didn't sound convincing. Seeing this, I thus worry he has started up too many books.
djammmer Posted July 19, 2016 Posted July 19, 2016 I don't know for sure, but I'm thinking "# of pages BS wrote in the Cosmere" + "# of pages BS wrote in WoT" already exceeds "# of pages RJ wrote in WoT". Don't get me wrong, I LOVE RJ. It's just that Brandon Sanderson seems to be a very efficient/proficient writing machine, that has kept his books at a very high level or quality. Maybe there will be a parallel to WoT books 6-10 in his future (where the plot for the epic is barely progressed - IMO), but so far we haven't seen it. Quite possibly BS won't finish the Cosmos... But right now seems he has more momentum, inertia and velocity than any of his peers in their Epics; or than RJ by book 7 of WoT (assuming BS is ~book 7 of Cosmos (3MB+2SA+Elantris+Warbreaker); not even counting his smaller cosmose books, or non-cosmos stories.
tennischamp5 Posted July 19, 2016 Posted July 19, 2016 Definitely a morbid thread ya'll started here. Having been a wheel of time fan since middle school, I vividly remember the disillusionment period readers started to have on the wheel of time fan forums and it began somewhat like this. I really hope it doesn't happen to Brandon, as Jordan's case was a little different due to his medical issues. I'm just hoping he doesn't go down the GRRM route where he starts going to so many conventions that he never has time to write - with GRRM, it hit a point where every post of his about a convention become frustrating to read because it was just another hiatus from writing until he got to where he is now... nonstop con to con . That said, glad to see it isn't just me that felt like this next book was taking a while. Not that I mind waiting, but it's not something I expect with Brandon's writing. I noticed someone mentioned above that we got two new Mistborn books in the past year. Any idea what we can look forward to in the coming year as we wait for SA3? I know about the Lift novella, but any other novellas or series that are finishing up or in the works?
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