Anniversary Game: In the Re-Wake of the Koloss

[Claincy he/him]

This is bad, though I wish it were more of a surprise.

 

I've got a bit to say here, but I want to start by talking about what just happened, and why it happened. You made a bit of a rookie-mistake Sarco, it's understandable but it did hurt us, let me explain:

 

You soothed Weiry and his vote was unaffected so he was smoked, then you told Hero in a private message, so far, so good. It doesn't guarantee that Weiry is spiked but it is a good cause for suspicion (I'll get back to this soon). Hero told me about this, and that he was targeting Weiry tonight, I only say this for full disclosure. At this point in time things were going pretty well, but then you made your last post yesterday and essentially defeated your own efforts. By publicly and clearly declaring both your suspicions and your reasoning for targeting Weiry and making a big deal about lynching him you painted a giant target on him. At that point it was almost guaranteed that if the spiked did have a lurcher (a reasonable guess before that is all but confirmed now) that they would be lurching Weiry.

 

If Weiry is a spiked, then the spiked obviously would have lurched him to protect him. But if he isn't a spiked they almost certainly would have lurched him anyway, confident that in doing so they would block the coinshot's action and lead to Weiry being lynched the next day anyway. Basically giving them an extra cycle to kill someone before suspicion came back to them. If you hadn't posted that last message and Weiry had been lurched we could have been near certain that there was a traitor amongst the most trusted players and we could have been reasonably sure that Weiry was spiked. As it is we can't be nearly as certain either way about either, nor have do we have any good indication from the action of who the traitor might be if there is one. All we really gained from the whole mess was the knowledge that the spiked almost certainly have a lurcher (it technically could have been a mistborn) and we lost our coinshot. A wiser path would have been to wait till the start of this day cycle to make that post, and if you really thought you were about to die you could have sent a message to whichever two people you trusted most, that way even if one was spiked the message would still get out if you happened to die. I understand making the mistake, but I think it's worth explaining why it was a mistake and what the consequences were. Making mistakes is a very effective way of learning after all.

 

So now to talk about Weiry and whether it is worth lynching him, to summarize the main reasons for suspicion:

-He was lurched last night.

-He was definitely smoked last cycle (if your word can be believed which I am reasonably certain about.)

-He and dowanx posted roughly the same thing in rapid succession and the question/answer about that closeness later felt staged to you.

 

I've already noted that I think the spiked would almost certainly have lurched Weiry regardless of his alignment so this doesn't really help us. I am making the assumption here and in the rest of my post that the spiked are highly competent. Given that it is day 6 and not one spiked has been killed or positively identified I think this assumption is a safe one.

 

Weiry being smoked. This is by far the strongest evidence we have against Weiry and it certainly indicates that Weiry might be spiked. There is however another (concerning) possibility. At this point in the game I think almost everyone feels pretty safe in the assumption that Araris was our only seeker, unless the spiked have one which is entirely possible. Regardless, drawing this conclusion and with what may be our only mistborn also pushing up daisies the spiked could be quite justified in thinking that they were no longer at a significant risk of being seeked. If that is the case they could very well be using their smokers offensively, hoping to cause the exact situation we have with Weiry with an innocent villager. Now they might not be doing that, but given how well they've done so far it wouldn't surprise me, if that is the case anyone we discover as smoked has a 50% chance of being the spiked smoker, and a 50% chance of being the innocent being smoked by said spiked smoker. These are not exactly ideal odds. All the same with everything said this is a good enough cause for serious suspicion, but personally I don't find it enough to raise Weiry to the top of my suspects or priority list.

 

This brings us to the close timing and similar nature of Weiry and dowanx's posts. I do not consider this evidence of them both being spiked, in fact, I find it more likely that at most one of the pair is spiked as a result of it. Let me explain my thought process:

 

The obvious and immediate reaction to seeing two people post so close together with the same intent is that they were collaborating somewhere, presumably on the spiked doc, came to a conclusion and acted on it. One of  the most rookie mistake the spiked could make. While it is true that both of them are relatively inexperienced I find it a bit difficult to believe that after the spiked's success so far they would make such a fundamental mistake. But let's keep stepping through the logic. The spiked would of course be aware of how obvious this would be, and would know that any experienced player would have difficulty crediting it as a spiked action, so by doing so they could actually reduce suspicion on themselves! I could continue this circular "I know you know" logic forever but it would be kind of pointless, and in this case it actually doesn't make sense.

 

The situation occurred during day 5, at a point in time when neither of them were under any kind of significant public suspicion. There is no way the gambit I described above would result in reducing suspicion. Furthermore one of the chief considerations for spiked when posting is that they absolutely do not want to be associated with eachother with any level of suspicion unless one of the pair is already under suspicion anyway and they are trying a dangerous gambit. This is so that if one spiked is killed, we wouldn't have immediate solid leads on who the other spiked were. In this case to my memory there had been nothing of any significance to link Weiry and dowanx before this point, so in the best possible case the gambit would have gained them, well, basically nothing. So either they made a really stupid mistake, or it was a coincidence. So yeah, if anything I think this is mild evidence that at least one of Weiry and dowanx is not spiked.

 

So to conclude all that, the thing making Weiry suspicious is being smoked during day 5, though that is absolutely a reason to be suspicious of him, it doesn't match up with my personal suspicion of Newan and Peng, though I can't blame anyone for disagreeing. I suppose this is the part where I would traditionally say that my suspicion of Sarco has risen, and perhaps it has marginally, but certainly not significantly. Your actions and logic make sufficient sense as a newer player and while as I've noted above I disagree with your reasoning, it doesn't appear spiked to me.

 

So, to move on to another topic I'd like to look at what has changed in regards to my suspicions of Newan and Peng.

Newan

1) said that he had checked every cycle, but didn't have time to read anything in detail so decided he had nothing to add to the discussion and had little idea who to trust/be suspicious of

2) said that when he talked about taking the game seriously, he meant that he just didn't want to die

3) Newan told the coinshot to kill him to stop the village from wasting more time on him

4) he claims to have left, and be leaving his coppercloud down.

 

1) This is unhelpful behaviour, but there isn't really much to say about it. A villager who cannot or will not vote/discuss is only useful as a potential fodder for the spiked. But this has been discussed plenty earlier.

2) K. That makes a little more sense and sounds a little less spiked, though it's not a great attitude for a team game. I suggest being a little clearer in future

3) I'm trying to remember how much I've said in PMs and how much I've said in the thread regarding people asking to die. My personal opinion is that it does little to indicate whether the person is spiked or not. To summarize:

-At first glance it sounds like something only a village would do, publicly sacrificing themselves for the team. (Of course, spiked do do that too, but generally as part of a larger gambit.)

-But as that is the obvious assumption it is a workable double bluff for the spiked (Que I know you know ad infinitum)

-If you think you are going to die otherwise, suggesting you be killed is worth a shot, cos what the heck, you've got nothing to lose (On this note I would like to note that the only reason Newan wasn't lynched day 5 was that lord Pifferdoo (probably unintentionally) forgot to colour his old vote green.

-For it to look less like a last scramble to save your life you need to do it before it becomes obvious that you are going to die anyway. This is true for a villager or a spiked. I don't think this is really a point for or against Newan being spikey, particularly as his timing could be interpreted a couple of different ways.

4) Yeah a spiked would be less likely to be not using their coppercloud, but he could also easily have been bluffing and none of the village emotionmanceres decided to test him so we don't have any solid evidence from this.

 

Anyway, the overall effect of this is that I am a little less suspicious of Newan, not a whole lot though.

 

Peng

1) changed his vote to Newan as an act of self preservation

2) said he was testing me about the number of PMs he had been in

3) reminded Pifferdoo that he needed to put his past vote in green

 

 

1) Perfectly natural for anyone to do, nothing suspicious or suggesting innocence here.

2) This seems vaguely more of a village thing to do, but as a spiked if you can catch someone in a contradiction it's an excellent opportunity to get them lynched. *shrug*

3) Yeah, this doesn't really mean anything either way.

 

So overall my thoughts on Peng have changed........not much Maybe a tad less suspicious now though.

 

 

Ok, here's the part I really haven't been looking forward to talking about. We have to consider the possibility that one of the players in the trust groups is a traitor. I'm not at all sure whether there is or isn't at this point, though we have been aware and watching for the possibility literally since Wilson first contacted me. (At that time it was the two of us watching eachother of course.) I'm going to try to get the relevant facts/points down here and we'll see where things go from there.

-The possibility of me or Wilson being spiked based on the original PM setup and our reasons for trusting eachother have been well documented at this point so I'm not going to try to repeat all the inns and outs of that debate. I linked all the relevant posts here if you want to review them.

-Given the number of major hits the spiked are either far more lucky than they have any right to be, or they have a trusted traitor, or they have a seeker.

-No-one in the trusted group (to my knowledge) knew that Araris was a seeker at the time of his death.

-Wilson's death:

  +To my knowledge only Maill, Sarcomere and myself knew that Wilson was protecting Hero on the night she died.

  +That said it is entirely possible, if not likely, that the spiked simply guessed that the coinshot would be the one with lurcher   protection that night as it was common knowledge that Wilson knew who the coinshot was.

  +There is a reasonable chance that the spiked also either knew or had guessed that Wilson was a lurcher. I genuinely don't know/remember exactly who knew about Wilson's role. I did, Maill did, Winter did, Hero may have, I think Wyrm might have? I've honestly forgotten if there were others though I have a feeling there were. Can you help me out here Maill? (The PM convo is thousands of words long and kind of a pain to search through, and I've already been working on this post for hours.)

-Hero's death

  +Maill and I both definitely knew Hero was the coinshot, I know that Sarcomere knew that Wilson lurched Hero the night she died, though I don't know for 100% certain if Sarcomere knew that Hero was the coinshot, I'd be surprised if he hadn't worked it out if he didn't know, Wyrm knew enough to work out who the coinshot was and I'm guessing he did so, but I don't know that for certain either.

  +To be honest, I don't think it would have taken too much guesswork to peg Hero as the coinshot, though that could be personal bias, and again a seeker on the spiked team would make a big difference here.

-Everyone knew Weiry was under extreme suspicion and likely to be coinshot (provided they viewed the thread after Sarc's post) though I don't know for certain if Hero told anyone else that he was targeting Weiry. (He did tell me if that wasn't clear from my wording.)

 

I'm not worried about revealing all this because now that Sarcomere has revealed himself I am near certain that the spiked already know who we all are. And knowledge of who knew what about past events is unlikely to be all that much use to them.

 

So anyway, there we are. From what has happened I don't think it is at all certain that there is a spiked (or more than one) in what remains of the "trust group" as such and I from my observations I don't individually think that any of them are spiked, but, *shrug* I cannot discount the possibility entirely.

 

One final quick note: I'm not terribly impressed with Maill or Joe's reasoning in the posts above, can we really afford to be that vague and in-specific or deliberately avoid stating why we suspect them at this point?

 

So now I should vote...writing that big block of text above? That was easier in some ways. Thinking about it all my chief suspicions are  Newan, Weiry and Peng. I'm going to put my vote on Peng again, sorry mate. (Check through day 5 posts for the reasons behind my suspicions.)

 

Please tell me if any of the above is unclear/needs to be explained better or if I made any mistakes or missed anything.

Edited January 19, 2015 by lord Claincy Ffnord

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Well, looks like I ninja'd Claincy there, so I think I'm willing to remove my vote . It's good to know that Weiry was actually part of a gamble, and while it doesn't clear you both, it makes me feel a little better. I don't think Sarcomere did reveal his Role there, though he hinted towards knowledge that the average player wouldn't have all the same. The fact that Weiry was actually singled out means one of two things then - Either Claincy or Mailliw are Spiked, or they did indeed suspect that a Coinshot would hit him last Night. I would like to know why you decided to Coinshot him though, myself, when we should have lynched him. Though I suppose we couldn't get that much info off him, at this point. We should almost certainly lynch him at the end of the day though, just to stave off lynch-or-lose a bit longer.

 

So, two questions remain here:

 

Firstly, how do you know that Newan wasn't the Spiked Smoker?

Secondly, if Weiry is indeed an Eliminator, then I would like to say that I called it

 

Also, just to clarify, I knew that Wilson was a Lurcher, but she never told me her targets.

Edited January 18, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Claincy he/him]

I think technically you ninja'd me.

 

Sarc said he was the village soother that was seeked by Araris in his last post in the last cycle.

 

 

I would like to know why you decided to Coinshot him though, myself, when we should have lynched him.

I was offline most of the night cycle. Hero made the call to target Weiry and I didn't get online with time to post till near the end of the cycle, after Sarc had already said his piece. By that point Hero was offline and didn't get back online before the end of the cycle *shrug*.

 

 

Secondly, if Weiry is indeed an Eliminator, then I would like to say that I called it

Permission granted

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Pardon my inactivity yet again. Visiting relatives take up a surprising amount of time, and I've only been able to briefly check in.

 

Pardon me yet again while I desperately try to catch up with everything. Can someone explain why no one has cast suspicion on Pifferdoo?

 

Edit: Great to have you back, colour editor.

Edited January 18, 2015 by Lightsworn Panda

[Peng the Just he/him]

Couple flaws in your logic here, clan. 1stly, wirey being slingshot last night was FAR from a guarantee, unless the spiked were in contact with hero about who he would shoot. Sarc was the only one casting a lot of suspicion on him. In your post, you make it sound like everybody knew he'd be shot. The only way the spiked would waste a lurch on a villager is if they KNEW who would die, otherwise they wouldn't take that risk. I also can't fathom any reason why a village lurcher would protect wirey. Also, in your post, you acknowledge the evidence of my innocence, then proceed to vote for me anyway

My vote is on weiry. Even if he happens.to be innocent, we would learn a lot from that. It would probably mean the spiked knew he would be shot

[Unodus he/him]

13 active players now, right? If we lose any more people, we're going to be outnumbered...

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Mailliw is Spiked.

I accused him earlier because he didn't die tonight, when it made sense for him to do so, due to his role being the Tineye. Wilson said she was playing I-know-you-know with the spiked about whether she was protecting herself or the tineye. Mailliw knew who she was protecting, and pointed the spiked at Wilson, since she was protecting the Tineye.

Why would Wilson trust one of the spiked? Because of me. On Day 1 I laid a trap for Mailliw, which would allow me to see whether he was good or evil. I did so by implying I had revealed my role to Eolhondras. Mailliw contacted me and asked if I was tineye 2, which is what I thought he would do if he was spiked. I said I was. I then told Wilson about my plan, that If I died, then Mailliw was spiked. It backfired when Mailliw proved to wilson he was Tineye 2.

He proved he was a Tineye, so Wilson never had him seeked.

He knew that Wilson was protecting himself, so had the spiked kill Wilson.

I confronted him about this in a PM last night, but he hasn't been online. I didn't want to post this until he had defended himself, but Then Wyrm revealed that Mailliw was one of the few who knew who the Coinshot was.

Tl;dr:

Mailliw was the Tineye protected by Wilson, didn't get seeked, and knew who the Coinshot was and who Wilson was protecting.

EDIT: Addendum on PM's.

If we kill him, we'll lose all access to PM's, but We don't need them anymore. We've lost our Seeker, Lurcher and Coinshot, so we don't need to keep anything secret from the spiked. Getting rid of the PM's will actually encourage people to post in the thread rather than thei PM's.

Edited January 18, 2015 by The Only Joe

[Mailliw73 he/him]

[quote name="lord Claincy Ffnord" post="217761" timestamp="1421576129"

 

So anyway, there we are. From what has happened I don't think it is at all certain that there is a spiked (or more than one) in what remains of the "trust group" as such and I from my observations I don't individually think that any of them are spiked, but, *shrug* I cannot discount the possibility entirely.

 

One final quick note: I'm not terribly impressed with Maill or Joe's reasoning in the posts above, can we really afford to be that vague and in-specific or deliberately avoid stating why we suspect them at this point?

 

 

I too am inclined to agree that we don't have a traitor in our group. I think the Spiked are doing a good job of stretching our resources, our guessing us, and using a Seeker. Once Wilson revealed that she knew the Coinshot, it was easy to guess that she would protect Hero, leaving herself open. Once that happened, they have easy kills everywhere.

I know it isn't good reasoning, but Pifferdoo, Senn, and Jain(and Macen and Jasnah, but they're inactive) have easily avoided much suspicions and I can't see why that should happen. We're getting down to the wire here. We aren't quite as desperate as it seems, but we need the next couple lynches to be good.

 

 

Firstly, how do you know that Newan wasn't the Spiked Smoker?

Secondly, if Weiry is indeed an Eliminator, then I would like to say that I called it

 

Also, just to clarify, I knew that Wilson was a Lurcher, but she never told me her targets.

  

We don't know that. I asked Hero to Coinshot Weiry because I found it far more likely that Weiry having hid being a Smoker this long would be more suspicious than Newan, who revealed his role to me and Joe on the first day.

Couple flaws in your logic here, clan. 1stly, wirey being slingshot last night was FAR from a guarantee, unless the spiked were in contact with hero about who he would shoot. Sarc was the only one casting a lot of suspicion on him. In your post, you make it sound like everybody knew he'd be shot. The only way the spiked would waste a lurch on a villager is if they KNEW who would die, otherwise they wouldn't take that risk. I also can't fathom any reason why a village lurcher would protect wirey. Also, in your post, you acknowledge the evidence of my innocence, then proceed to vote for me anyway

My vote is on weiry. Even if he happens.to be innocent, we would learn a lot from that. It would probably mean the spiked knew he would be shot

 

No, after I told Hero to shoot Weiry, the only likely way Weiry would be saved is if Claincy, Sarc, or Hero himself were Spiked. The Spiked had no reason to think that we suspected Weiry. Once Sarc made his announcement, it became obvious that the Spiked would want to lurch Weiry, whether he is spiked or not.

 

13 active players now, right? If we lose any more people, we're going to be outnumbered...

  

Not quite. It doesn't matter how many are active, just how many total. We have 17 players left, of which 6 are likely spiked, so that makes the odds 11-6. We still have time to make a couple mistakes, but if we mislynch more than twice, it'll be nigh impossible to recover from that.

Mailliw is Spiked.

I accused him earlier because he didn't die tonight, when it made sense for him to do so, due to his role being the Tineye. Wilson said she was playing I-know-you-know with the spiked about whether she was protecting herself or the tineye. Mailliw knew who she was protecting, and pointed the spiked at Wilson, since she was protecting the Tineye.

Why would Wilson trust one of the spiked? Because of me. On Day 1 I laid a trap for Mailliw, which would allow me to see whether he was good or evil. I did so by implying I had revealed my role to Eolhondras. Mailliw contacted me and asked if I was tineye 2, which is what I thought he would do if he was spiked. I said I was. I then told Wilson about my plan, that If I died, then Mailliw was spiked. It backfired when Mailliw proved to wilson he was Tineye 2.

He proved he was a Tineye, so Wilson never had him seeked.

He knew that Wilson was protecting himself, so had the spiked kill Wilson.

I confronted him about this in a PM last night, but he hasn't been online. I didn't want to post this until he had defended himself, but Then Wyrm revealed that Mailliw was one of the few who knew who the Coinshot was.

Tl;dr:

Mailliw was the Tineye protected by Wilson, didn't get seeked, and knew who the Coinshot was and who Wilson was protecting.

Well, thanks for revealing my role, Joe. I have some choice words, but I'll keep it civil. I thought the Spiked knew my role after I revealed it to a number of people the first day with Eol's gambit. But, as it's gone down, most of throes have died and been proven good. Wilson and I realized that it was still very possible the Spiked didn't know my role. But now they do, and there's no getting around it. I can't tell you why I didn't die yet, except that the Spiked didn't know my role or they wanted me to gather suspicion like this.

Of course I wasn't Seeked. The only one we know of who Araris Seeked is Sarc. Wilson herself wasn't Seeked. You're right, I did know that Hero was the Coinshot, and I did know who Wilson was protecting. But, if I recall correctly, Wilson only lurched me once. I had plenty of opportunities to cripple the village since day one, when I learned Wilson's role. I could've rid the village of their Lurcher and crippled communications and planning.

It's time to lay everything out then, since I have no reason to hide my role. I am a Village Tineye and I trust Claincy with my life. I do not know his alignment with certainty, but I trust that he's villager. The only others one I trust completely is Sarc. I don't think Wyrm is Spiekd, but I can't say for sure. If I had to pick someone of the more trusted group to be a traitor, I would say Wyrm. I think it's very likely that Weiry, Peng, Senn, and dowanx are Spiked. If only one or none of those four are, then Claincy and Wyrm have orchestrated this entire game to their liking. I think the Spiked have at least one, maybe two, Inactives and so we should focus on the actives first since they're the biggest threats. If we do have another Coinshot, Lurcher, or seeker, they are inactive. I know there's a plan to communicate to a few of you should I be killed, but in that case only one other would know how to use that plan. There you go. Everything I have out on the table.

Kill me if you must, but if you do, you'll lose a Villager as well as your PMs.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I knew that revealing Your role would be seen as a bad idea, but as I added in in an Edit, we've lost all needs for Hidden communication. 

 

Well, thanks for revealing my role, Joe. I have some choice words, but I'll keep it civil. I thought the Spiked knew my role after I revealed it to a number of people the first day with Eol's gambit. But, as it's gone down, most of throes have died and been proven good. Wilson and I realized that it was still very possible the Spiked didn't know my role. But now they do, and there's no getting around it. I can't tell you why I didn't die yet, except that the Spiked didn't know my role or they wanted me to gather suspicion like this.

 

If you and Wilson realized it was very possible you were still hidden, why did she still lurch you? It would have been better to lurch who you knew was a target, rather than who might be a target. And if you Trust Claincy with your life, believing him to be innocent, then only you could have revealed to the spiked who the coinshot was.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

She lurched me on night 2. We began to think they didn't know my role later, like day 3 or so.

I am 80% sure that the Spiked have a seeker. Or they are just very good guessers. I don't think anyone revealed Hero.

[Unodus he/him]

(Am I the only one who didn't know Mail was a Tineye? >.> )

 

Hey Mail, since you confessed to being the TIneye- could you tell us the secret meanings behind your tineye messages? Because I spent a really long time trying to decode them- to no avail x.x

I mean... there were secrets hidden in them right? :V

[Seonid he/him]

Mail, from your posts all I can gather from your posts is that you suspect me because I've been "too convenient," whatever that means. Care to elaborate? If you have more reasons beyond that, I'd be happy to answer them.

 

As an argument in favor of your trust, however, I remind you that I was one of the people to whom you revealed your role on day 1. You may have forgotten, as that PM died rather quickly, but the fact that I haven't betrayed your role should be an evidence in my favor.

 

As I said, though, if you have other reasons for suspicion, I am more that willing to listen to them and answer them.

 

As far as my own vote goes, although I find Weiry suspicious, I am persuaded by Mail's reasoning that a bandwagon on him would deny us critical information. (And Claincy's cautions about a potential Spiked gambit are good reasoning, too).

 

I had been persuaded about Newan last cycle, and although his request to be Coinshot last night calmed those suspicions somewhat, I have begun to reconsider that. It is likely that the Spiked knew that they were going to be targeting the Coinshot early in the cycle, and Newan's post may have been an attempt to ensure that the Coinshot attack him, so that he could be Lurched and the attack wasted.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I had been persuaded about Newan last cycle, and although his request to be Coinshot last night calmed those suspicions somewhat, I have begun to reconsider that. It is likely that the Spiked knew that they were going to be targeting the Coinshot early in the cycle, and Newan's post may have been an attempt to ensure that the Coinshot attack him, so that he could be Lurched and the attack wasted.

 

But Riew was target and lurched instead. So I don't think that's how it happened.

 

I am removing my Vote from Mailliw, as I have learned that at least 3, and possibly more people knew Hero's Role. My vote may go back on Mailliw later, but it might not.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

(Am I the only one who didn't know Mail was a Tineye? >.> )

 

Hey Mail, since you confessed to being the TIneye- could you tell us the secret meanings behind your tineye messages? Because I spent a really long time trying to decode them- to no avail x.x

I mean... there were secrets hidden in them right? :V

  

No, there were plenty who didn't know.

Have patience. All will be revealed in time. (Meaning, once the game is over, I'll decide and dissect every message.)

Mail, from your posts all I can gather from your posts is that you suspect me because I've been "too convenient," whatever that means. Care to elaborate? If you have more reasons beyond that, I'd be happy to answer them.

 

As an argument in favor of your trust, however, I remind you that I was one of the people to whom you revealed your role on day 1. You may have forgotten, as that PM died rather quickly, but the fact that I haven't betrayed your role should be an evidence in my favor.

 

As I said, though, if you have other reasons for suspicion, I am more that willing to listen to them and answer them.

 

As far as my own vote goes, although I find Weiry suspicious, I am persuaded by Mail's reasoning that a bandwagon on him would deny us critical information. (And Claincy's cautions about a potential Spiked gambit are good reasoning, too).

 

I had been persuaded about Newan last cycle, and although his request to be Coinshot last night calmed those suspicions somewhat, I have begun to reconsider that. It is likely that the Spiked knew that they were going to be targeting the Coinshot early in the cycle, and Newan's post may have been an attempt to ensure that the Coinshot attack him, so that he could be Lurched and the attack wasted.

Sorry, Seonid. I don't have much. It's just that you've slid by easily and that's an ideal position for a Spiked Mistborn/Coinshot/Lurcher/Seeker, especially one who is new to this. You and Pifferdoo could easily be Spiked. I know this is flimsy and has no real reasoning, but for now, I'm sticking to it.

[Claincy he/him]

So I realized that I forgot an important point in my discussion above. It'd been in my head beforehand but somehow never made it into the post

 

In the same PM where Hero told me he was targeting Weiry last night he also told me that at least 4 people knew his role (or were pretty certain of it) and that he thought he might die because he suspected that one of us was spiked. (Turns out it was back on the 16th when he said only Maill and I knew.) He also mentioned being in contact with both village soothers at that point. I don't know who the other 2 people who knew his role are, though I strongly suspect that Sarc was one and I wonder if Wyrm or the other soother (which I don't know who is) was the other. Hero did say that he hadn't told anyone else that he was targeting Weiry though I don't know if he did later, but I don't think it would have been at all hard to guess.

 

Sorry that I forgot about that, I know it's rather important information

 

Couple flaws in your logic here, clan. 1stly, wirey being slingshot last night was FAR from a guarantee, unless the spiked were in contact with hero about who he would shoot. Sarc was the only one casting a lot of suspicion on him. In your post, you make it sound like everybody knew he'd be shot. The only way the spiked would waste a lurch on a villager is if they KNEW who would die, otherwise they wouldn't take that risk. I also can't fathom any reason why a village lurcher would protect wirey. Also, in your post, you acknowledge the evidence of my innocence, then proceed to vote for me anyway

My vote is on weiry. Even if he happens.to be innocent, we would learn a lot from that. It would probably mean the spiked knew he would be shot

The above info might make it make a little more sense why I thought the spiked likely knew/guessed. My own figuring was that provided Sarc was telling the truth about being a soother who was soothed by Araris the odds that he was in communication with the coinshot were extremely high. (I knew they were, but I'm talking about what people who didn't know could guess.) From that it seems to me a logical conclusion, just based on the evidence in the thread, that Weiry was a likely coinshot target, and it's entirely possible that the spiked had more information than that to go on.

"I also can't fathom any reason why a village lurcher would protect wirey."

Short of Weiry being a lurcher  (very unlikely), neither can I. I'm pretty certain that was a spiked lurcher.

 

 

Also, in your post, you acknowledge the evidence of my innocence, then proceed to vote for me anyway

I noted two relatively significant things you had done that made no difference in my mind to how suspicious you were and talked about 1 that made you slightly less suspicious but could still have easily been a spiked action with a net change of very little in my suspicions. There's nothing terribly strange about me continuing to vote for you based on that.

[Newan he/him]

Pardon my Alethi, but Clan's mega post is a load of chull crem.

That reasoning is soooooo precarious. Let me sum up: Weiry might not have been spiked because the spiked might have decided to use copperclouds to cast suspicion on people, even though they don't know for sure that the villagers no longer have a seeker. And the spiked might have lurched Weiry to delay us, even if he was a villager.

Hahaha what?! That's absurd! Yes, I understand that it's possible, but it's also outlandish! With evidence that there are likely 4 smokers, why would the spiked risk so much based on the uncertainty that there were only 2 seekers, just hoping that somebody they smoked would be seeked so they could frame that person. The spiked don't need to do ridiculous plots where they cloud people and then lurch them, because they obviously have a smoker and a seeker! They're going to be clouding and protecting themselves, because that's what the spiked always do. (I think that's what they always do. Isn't that what they always do?)

Anyway, apparently Clan thought these possibilities were redeeming enough that Weiry was less suspicious than Peng. I don't. Weiry

Also, Wyrm: No, we don't know that I'm not the spiked smoker, because nobody soothed my vote last cycle, even though I asked them to. But even if I was, that would mean it was even more likely that Weiry was the spiked lurcher! (because it would mean he wasn't the spiked smoker.) Not certain, but more likely. So it doesn't make sense why you would also choose to vote for somebody who wasn't Weiry.

Joe's reasoning makes sense. I tentatively believe that Mailliw is bad. This makes me feel better, because a couple of cycles ago he told me how much he trusted Clan and Wyrm. I don't trust them. Their playstyle reminds me of the pirate quick fix. It seems like they're being super helpful, and everything they say makes sense on the surface, but they manipulate by giving some things more attention than others, rather then by telling lies. It's crafty and genious, and totally forgivable for anybody to believe them enough to create a chart that shows how trustworthy they are. Right? Right???

Also, you all should know that my coppercloud is currently on. I honestly believed that I would be killed in the last night cycle, so I didn't PM Meta. And the smoker's default position is to have the coppercloud on. Sorry about that.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

First, A vote Tally:

 

WeiryWriter(5): Sarcomere, Peng, Newan, Joe <2>, Mckeedee

Newan(2): Wyrm, Seonid, Claincy <2>

Seonid(1): Mailliw 

Peng(0): Claincy <1>

Pifferdoo(1): Panda 

Mailliw(0): Joe <1>

Claincy(0): Wyrm

 

Also Mailliw, due to the formatting of this post, it looks like you're voting for Newan.

 

There are currently 3 main Suspects: WeiryWriter, JasonPenguin and Newan

 

The case against WeiryWriter:

 

The leader in this vote is Sarcomere, who was seeked, and proven innocent. Last Night he asked all villagers to Vote for and Lynch WeiryWriter. He started by revealing his role of a soother, and said that he had soothed Riew, but she was smoked. All of this I believe, as he's been's seeked.

 

He says he has it on good Authority that Newan had his cloud off Yesterday. Sarc, how do you know this? The only way to know this is if Newan told you, and as his vote wasn't soothed, there's no way to be sure whether he had his cloud on or off.

 

But Riew was smoked, and Lurched! The Lurching is the important part, as it means the Spiked knew somehow who we were going to shoot. Some possibilities:

1. Riew is the spiked Lurcher, and not knowing who was going to be coinshotted, lurched himself. He was also smoked by either Newan or the Spiked Smoker. This means we don't have a leak.
2. Riew is the Spiked Smoker and simply left his cloud on. He was lurched, so unless they decided he was the most suspicious at the time, We still have a Leak.
3. Riew is innocent, but the spiked knew we were going to target him, so they saved him and Smoked him just in case to make us waste a lynch. This seems convoluted at first, but makes perfect sense, seeing as they had both a smoker and a Lurcher, and as Claincy said, Sarc painted a huge target on Riew.

Possibility three is actually possible because of the math: If they lurch Innocent Riew: 1 spiked kill + us lynching Riew + 1 Spiked kill = three kills where none of them are in danger. If they don't lurch Riew: 1 spiked kill + Us killing Riew+ Us talking and figuring out who to kill +1 Spiked kill = 3 kills, plus an extra where they might be in danger. So Lurching Innocnt Riew actually gives them a slight advantage.

 

The Case against JasonPenguin:

 

The only Vocal player suspicious of Peng is Claincy. I'm inclined to believe that Claincy is innocent, since Wilson whole-heartedly trusted him.

 

Other than that, and the fact that Peng and I are the only two unproven Experienced players, I really don't see a case against him at all.

 

The Case against Newan:

 

Asked to be Coinshoted early on, but then vigorously defends himself from death now. Has been pretty inactive at first. (As Have I). He does believe that Claincy's post is a load of crem, thinking the spiked wouldn't bother lurching a villager. but I've already stated that's not true.But that's not true. 

 

So I'm going to vote for Riew. If he's innocent, then Newan's probably Spiked.

 

EDIT: There, everything's fixed.

Edited January 19, 2015 by The Only Joe

[Claincy he/him]

This post is a direct response to Newan, I'm not quoting just for the sake of page space

 

I could pretend to be angry at having my post called "a load of chull crem" but I'm not going to. Whenever I make a detailed post like this in an elimination game I fully expect someone to try to discredit it, and it's always interesting to see who. Though honestly Newan, that post is a remarkably poor effort on your part.

 

To get the obvious out of the way first, you call a single portion of my post absurd (providing only the most basic reasoning to support your own assertions) and use that as a basis to call my entire post a load of crem, attempting to discredit everything else in the post by association with the one point that you attacked. The only assumption necessary in my post (which I clearly stated) is that the spiked are intelligent and that they almost certainly have at least one experienced player among them. We're down 11 villagers including most of the power-roles without taking out a single spiked, assuming otherwise at this point would be foolishness.

 

Let's break this down:

 

uncertainty that there were only 2 seekers

I will be utterly shocked if there is another village seeker in the game. There is 0 evidence to support the existence of one (unless they are inactive in which case they might as well not exist anyway), if there was another seeker they have had 6 cycles in which to seek people, I find it almost impossible to believe that in that time they have entirely failed to build a trust group or find any useful targets and that there would have been no indication of their existence. While it's even more obvious to someone who's been part of the main trust groups what has happened in the thread is enough to discredit the idea of there being another village seeker provided you are paying attention.

 

 

They're going to be clouding and protecting themselves, because that's what the spiked always do. (I think that's what they always do. Isn't that what they always do?)

Well no, it's not. Not if they are smart. Detecting someone who is smoked in the early game or at this point in the game is enough to throw heavy suspicion on them. It doesn't really matter whether they were seeked or had their vote manipulated. This is evidenced quite clearly by the suspicion on Weiry from this single incident (I've already clearly stated what I think of the rest of the evidence). As a result, and with the almost certainty of their being no village seekers left in play the spiked could very easily use their smoker offensively by smoking people they thought were likely to be soothed (or seeked earlier in the game). If there is a traitor amongst the trust groups this kind of strategy makes even more sense as they would have more information on which to base their smoking. So that they would do something like this is entirely feasible, if not likely. That said, if they are doing that then that leaves it to a 50/50 as to whether Weiry is the smoker or the smokee. Which still leads to an overall decent chance of Weiry being spiked which is why he's still in my top 3 suspects, but without further evidence to support Weiry being spiked it isn't quite enough to pass my suspicion on you and Peng.

 

 

And the spiked might have lurched Weiry to delay us, even if he was a villager.

I think I've already said as much on that particular point as there is of value to say.

 

 

But even if I was, that would mean it was even more likely that Weiry was the spiked lurcher! (because it would mean he wasn't the spiked smoker.) Not certain, but more likely. So it doesn't make sense why you would also choose to vote for somebody who wasn't Weiry.

Only if you completely reject my points, which of course you did. If, in fact, I am correct, then if you are a spiked smoker the odds that Weiry is a villager improve noticeably. (The opposite is also true to an extent, if we lynch Weiry and he is a villager my suspicion of you will decrease.) But given my existing suspicions against you (which you are only making stronger) that is one more reason to find Weiry slightly less suspicious than you and Peng.

 

Your post is based on the assumption of me being a fool, or spiked. Your "logic" equates to calling my reasoning absurd without providing any significant evidence to support your claim and repeatedly and confidently making assertions that make perfect sense from the perspective of a newer player, but fall apart in the face of more experienced and detailed strategies. From a new player, I'd kind of expect the arguments you're making. But you're not a new player and you know better than this. Which means that you are significantly overstating your points and dismissing mine for the sake of trying to discredit me.

 

I don't mind people disagreeing with me or pointing out flaws in my reasoning, but you can do a heck of a lot better than that Newan. Your points aren't entirely without merit, but they are rather basic, and your own apparent bias and aggressiveness is getting in the way of them.

 

It's entirely possible that Weiry is spiked, but I'm more certain that you are. So yes, I'm going to change my vote to Newan now, you just passed Peng in terms of suspiciousness. If people want to read into all this as me being overly defensive of Weiry or overly aggressive towards someone who disagrees with me, go for it, I can't stop you. *shrug* I like to look at things from multiple angles, including the angle of what I personally would be doing if I was spiked, and if no-one else feels like discussing it I'm going to make sure that different possibilities have at least been considered. Bandwagoning on to one person based on a single situation before considering if there are other explanations seems like a very bad idea.

 

 

Their playstyle reminds me of the pirate quick fix. It seems like they're being super helpful, and everything they say makes sense on the surface, but they manipulate by giving some things more attention than others, rather then by telling lies. It's crafty and genious, and totally forgivable for anybody to believe them enough to create a chart that shows how trustworthy they are. Right? Right???

There's not a whole lot I can say regarding this. *shrug* The only way for me to avoid this kind of suspicion is to sit back and not get involved in the discussion and analysis in such detail and I don't intend to do that.

 

Edit: Ok, maybe I am a little annoyed. I don't like people dismissing my points and arguments without sufficient cause, and I'm not that fond of being told my multi-hour post was chull crem.

Edit2: So I apologize if this came off as offensive to you personally. That wasn't what I was trying to do.

Edited January 19, 2015 by lord Claincy Ffnord

[Mckeedee123 he/him]

Weiry. I haven't posted on the whole Weiry fiasco yet, but let me just say that I'm a fan of evidence. The fact that copper was on Weiry is a far better reason to lynch him than any circumstantial evidence can provide. The fact that he was in contact with (or was) a lurcher or Mistborn strengthens that assertion even more, which is why I'm voting for Riew.

[Unodus he/him]

  Have patience. All will be revealed in time. (Meaning, once the game is over, I'll decide and dissect every message.)

Are you sure? :V

I mean, now that your role has been revealed- that'll make you a target for the spiked, right? If the messages include vital clues- it might be better to reveal them now while you still can... :/

Good job on all the poems, btw ^=^

Edited January 19, 2015 by Unodus

[Newan he/him]

I'm sorry.  I was definitely too rude in my previous post.  Sometimes I get worked up when I feel really confident about what I'm going to say, and I forget to think about how I'm saying it.  

 

 

 

To get the obvious out of the way first, you call a single portion of my post absurd (providing only the most basic reasoning to support your own assertions) and use that as a basis to call my entire post a load of crem, attempting to discredit everything else in the post by association with the one point that you attacked. The only assumption necessary in my post (which I clearly stated) is that the spiked are intelligent and that they almost certainly have at least one experienced player among them. We're down 11 villagers including most of the power-roles without taking out a single spiked, assuming otherwise at this point would be foolishness.

 

You're right.  There were parts of your post that I disagreed with, and those are the parts that I was addressing, but it was wrong of me to attack the post as a whole.  For example, I completely agree with the part where you talk about how two people voting closely together is not indicative of them both being spiked.  

 

However, I do think that your logic was unbalanced.  

 

 

 

Let's break this down:

I will be utterly shocked if there is another village seeker in the game. There is 0 evidence to support the existence of one (unless they are inactive in which case they might as well not exist anyway), if there was another seeker they have had 6 cycles in which to seek people, I find it almost impossible to believe that in that time they have entirely failed to build a trust group or find any useful targets and that there would have been no indication of their existence. While it's even more obvious to someone who's been part of the main trust groups what has happened in the thread is enough to discredit the idea of there being another village seeker provided you are paying attention.

 

But would the spiked be willing to bet everything on that assumption?  I would be erring on the side of caution, but I've only been spiked 1.5 times.  On those occasions, I didn't attempt any intricate gambits.  Others might be more likely to do something like that.  I just don't buy it, though.  It's too risky for too small a chance of fulfillment.  

 

 

 

Well no, it's not. Not if they are smart. Detecting someone who is smoked in the early game or at this point in the game is enough to throw heavy suspicion on them. It doesn't really matter whether they were seeked or had their vote manipulated. 

 

I'm not trying to be contrary here; I'm actually curious: Have the spiked tried any gambits of this caliber?  I don't have that much experience being spiked, but both times all I did was try to avoid suspicion while trying to cast suspicion in other places.  Sometimes I had plans that included which order we would kill people, but nothing as elaborate as this.  Has something like this worked before?  Because if so, I'm extremely impressed.

Also, if the spiked tried this, are banking on the fact that there aren't seekers, but carry on.

 

 

 

This is evidenced quite clearly by the suspicion on Weiry from this single incident (I've already clearly stated what I think of the rest of the evidence). As a result, and with the almost certainty of their being no village seekers left in play the spiked could very easily use their smoker offensively by smoking people they thought were likely to be soothed (or seeked earlier in the game). If there is a traitor amongst the trust groups this kind of strategy makes even more sense as they would have more information on which to base their smoking. So that they would do something like this is entirely feasible, if not likely. That said, if they are doing that then that leaves it to a 50/50 as to whether Weiry is the smoker or the smokee. Which still leads to an overall decent chance of Weiry being spiked which is why he's still in my top 3 suspects, but without further evidence to support Weiry being spiked it isn't quite enough to pass my suspicion on you and Peng.

 

I think I've already said as much on that particular point as there is of value to say.

 

Only if you completely reject my points, which of course you did. If, in fact, I am correct, then if you are a spiked smoker the odds that Weiry is a villager improve noticeably. (The opposite is also true to an extent, if we lynch Weiry and he is a villager my suspicion of you will decrease.) But given my existing suspicions against you (which you are only making stronger) that is one more reason to find Weiry slightly less suspicious than you and Peng.

 

I don't disagree with any of what you've said here.  Moving on. 

 

 

 

Your post is based on the assumption of me being a fool, or spiked. 

 

I would never assume you were a fool.  I said in my post that I think you are crafty and genius.  You are correct that my post is based on the assumption of you being spiked.  

 

 

 

Your "logic" equates to calling my reasoning absurd without providing any significant evidence to support your claim 

 

I know you're mad at me, and rightfully so, but putting logic in quotation marks doesn't debase my argument.  I explained my reasoning in the third paragraph of my post, right after I called your reasoning absurd.

 

 

 

and repeatedly and confidently making assertions that make perfect sense from the perspective of a newer player, but fall apart in the face of more experienced and detailed strategies. 

 

Really?  Because I don't think what I said is falling apart at all.  I still don't believe that spiked would try something like that.  I understand your points, but what you say still doesn't make it sound like a good plan.  I honestly don't believe the spiked are doing it.  However, if by some chance the spiked are doing it, then good on you.  In that case, which I do not consider likely at all, it is obviously succeeding.  

 

 

 

From a new player, I'd kind of expect the arguments you're making. But you're not a new player and you know better than this. Which means that you are significantly overstating your points and dismissing mine for the sake of trying to discredit me.

 

I don't mind people disagreeing with me or pointing out flaws in my reasoning, but you can do a heck of a lot better than that Newan. Your points aren't entirely without merit, but they are rather basic, and your own apparent bias and aggressiveness is getting in the way of them.

 

I will state my points however much I please.  The purpose of my post was to discredit your argument.  I did not agree with it.  

 

This attitude like you're disappointed in me, or that you expected better from me... where is that coming from?  What are the great works I have composed that have set your standards for me so high?  I've always been like this.  I think something, and then I say it.  I use emotion as well as evidence, and I try to be concise.  Here, it seems that you are looking down on my post because it isn't something that you would be happy with if you posted it.  But don't judge me for having a simpler play-style than you do.  

 

Also, my own apparent bias?  What is that?  What's my apparent bias?  My points are extremely clear.  What I'm currently trying to accomplish, is that my bias that is getting in the way of my points?  My points are getting in the way of my points?  Saying somebody is biased is usually a good way to discredit someone, but I don't think it works here because I have absolutely no agenda besides what I publicly bring to the table.  

Attention everyone:  I would prefer not to die.  When I suspect that people are spiked, I want them to die.  Behold, the bias of Newan.  

 

 

 

 

It's entirely possible that Weiry is spiked, but I'm more certain that you are. So yes, I'm going to change my vote to Newan now, you just passed Peng in terms of suspiciousness. If people want to read into all this as me being overly defensive of Weiry or overly aggressive towards someone who disagrees with me, go for it, I can't stop you. *shrug* I like to look at things from multiple angles, including the angle of what I personally would be doing if I was spiked, and if no-one else feels like discussing it I'm going to make sure that different possibilities have at least been considered. Bandwagoning on to one person based on a single situation before considering if there are other explanations seems like a very bad idea.

 

There's not a whole lot I can say regarding this. *shrug* The only way for me to avoid this kind of suspicion is to sit back and not get involved in the discussion and analysis in such detail and I don't intend to do that.

 

Edit: Ok, maybe I am a little annoyed. I don't like people dismissing my points and arguments without sufficient cause, and I'm not that fond of being told my multi-hour post was chull crem.

Edit2: So I apologize if this came off as offensive to you personally. That wasn't what I was trying to do.

 

 

When I created my earlier post, I was feeling extremely confident.  I wanted to inform everyone in a way that could not be misunderstood that I thought your post was manipulative and false.  I rushed things.  

 

What I didn't think about at the time was that, no matter what your role was, you had constructed a brilliant post that took a lot of work.  The way I made my point was rude, childish, and unnecessary.  If I had taken a moment to consider your feelings, I could have restated things in a way that was just as clear without being hurtful.  

 

While I haven't changed my mind on the reasoning in my post, I am extremely sorry for the way I said it.  I'll be better in the future.  Please forgive me.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

At this point in time, I'm not too bothered about who we lynch as all the people up for the chop are people I am highly suspicious of. I will in fact change my vote though, from Newan to Weiry, as I have realised how much more information we get from Weiry's death than Newan's - And Weiry might have a much more important Role than Newan. Note though, that we cannot afford another draw this Cycle. We need at least two more votes on one person than the next - Perhaps even three, just to be safe. Something I don't quite understand - Why are we saying that Weiry could be a false positive, when they would have had to know on Night 4 who Sarco was going to Sooth in order to block it?

 

I'd also like to know who knew Hreo's Role, other than Mailliw and Claincy, because I am pretty sure that one of those people is Spiked. Did Hreo really not share that with people, just in case something might happen?

 

Edit: Night 5 to Night 4. Got a bit confused counting backwards.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Claincy he/him]

While I haven't changed my mind on the reasoning in my post, I am extremely sorry for the way I said it.  I'll be better in the future.  Please forgive me.

 

I do, and hopefully you can forgive me for my response as well. It was significantly more aggressive, less structured and generally poor and unpleasant than it should have been. Where I noted in that post that I was dissapointed at your post and thought you can do better, I feel exactly the same way about my own post. However valid the points either of us made, I think we both allowed too much anger/annoyance and general unpleasantness to creep into our posts, and that in some ways made the points seem more like angry assertions than logical thoughts as well as making them less clear, and that is dissapointing because we are both better than that. (Emotion colouring posts is fine , but I don't think we should let it take over as much as it did.)

 

Without the defensiveness that was clouding my previous reply and the overstatedness of your original post I can clearly see that my response had the same issues of over-assuredness and unpleasantness. I think when I referred to "your bias" I was referring to how you seemed to only be looking at things from the one angle with the assumption that you were correct (and that I was spiked). Something that I strived to avoid in my initial post, but also failed at when I responded to you. As a result of my own bias and frustration/tiredness/defensiveness (and some annoyance) I didn't give your points as much credit as they deserved and judged it more harshly than it deserved, and I operated too strongly on the assumption that the spiked think the way I do. An assumption that I should have been more hesitant to make. (I still feel strongly that they must be/have intelligent and experienced players, but that doesn't mean they think like me.)

 

 

I'm not trying to be contrary here; I'm actually curious: Have the spiked tried any gambits of this caliber?  I don't have that much experience being spiked, but both times all I did was try to avoid suspicion while trying to cast suspicion in other places.  Sometimes I had plans that included which order we would kill people, but nothing as elaborate as this.  Has something like this worked before?  Because if so, I'm extremely impressed.

You and I both think very differently as villagers and as spiked it seems, and I should have been more open to other viewpoints before instead of assuming that I was right based on their success so far. I think it varies considerably depending on the spiked team, we have definitely had occasions in the games I have played where the spiked have tried complicated gambits, ones that some people might call foolhardy. They haven't always worked of course, but some have. It has been ~6 months since I last played though so to give proper detail on any I'd have to go back and reread them. Personally as a spiked at this point in time I think I would very likely gamble on their being no remaining seekers and I would probably be trying to use smoking offensively, but I can understand that others would not.

 

So how to conclude; we think a bit differently about things, we both had some valid points but we both made some mistakes in how we posted them. I do still think you're spiked, (and I'm guessing that your opinion on my spikeyness hasn't changed over-much either ). But I don't harbour you any shred of ill-will, and I apologize for my own mistakes

 

Heh, maybe I spent too long having a rather large portion of my detailed discussion with Wilson, she tends to come up with the same kind of complicated/devious things I've been talking about so that could have caused some confirmation bias.

 

 

Why are we saying that Weiry could be a false positive, when they would have had to know on Night 5 who Sarco was going to Sooth in order to block it?

They couldn't have chosen a target for the smoking gambit with any certainty, though they could probably narrow down the list of people likely to be manipulated a reasonably way depending on how much information they had. I think this possibility is now getting more attention/discussion than it deserves, I wanted to bring it up as I think it is possible and (when I'm thinking clearly) I like to consider things from multiple angles.

 

 

I'd also like to know who knew Hreo's Role, other than Mailliw and Claincy, because I am pretty sure that one of those people is Spiked. Did Hreo really not share that with people, just in case something might happen?

Hero doesn't trust people lightly, and I think in case one of us was spiked he didn't want any of us to know who everyone else he trusted was. Hero told me that he was in connection with both (very likely village) soothers, but he didn't tell me if they knew his role or not so I don't know for certain if they knew or not. I wish I did though, because the odds that one of the 4 of us is spiked are good. If the spiked have a seeker that probability is lower though still entirely possible. But we don't know if they do or not. I kinda wish whoever the other two are they would come forward, though I can understand their desire to stay anonymous. If I had been forced to guess I would have guessed you and Sarc as the other two though. As I think I already said, the message where Hero told me that:

-4 people knew his role (or should be near certain)

-that he suspected others might have guessed

-that he was in contact with both soothers

-that he was targeting Weiry

-and that he wouldn't be surprised if he was killed that night;

was the last message he sent me before dying.

 

For now, I still think Newan is spiked (though I'll admit to being less certain than before), so my vote will stay there for now, but I'll be on *very* briefly in the morning and I'll change my vote then if necessary to ensure the spiked don't change our final target. Aside from that I may be online and have a chance to read some stuff but I won't have the opportunity to post again till past the end of the cycle, the same is going to happen next cycle as well but at least that's night. :/

[Wyrmhero he/him]

So, let's look at this again. Why was Weiry Smoked and Lurched? Well, the Lurching makes some sense, since Sarco painted a bit of a target on him, but at the same time, if I was Spiked, I'd have expected the Village to try to lynch him, see what could be drawn out by people. Admittedly though, we've been terrible at lynching the people we really suspect, so let's disregard that. So Weiry's either a Villager or Spiked, and they want to either save him for the next lynch to take him out instead (perhaps throw suspicion on him as well to seem more Village), or they want to distract us again. This doesn't tell us much, but I'd be a bit doubtful that they'd save a Villager like that at the moment - Not discounting that Weiry could be a Lurcher himself. But, as I say, this isn't damning evidence.

 

So let's look at the Smoking reason. I don't think that the Spiked would randomly attempt to Smoke Weiry. There's just no reason for them to do that or for Sarco to Sooth his vote. If anything, I would've expected Sarco to go for one of the people who's spoken a lot and voted a lot more. Unless the Spiked knew he was going to do so, it's just too coincidental. As a gambit, it's nonsensical unless both Sarco and the Smoker are Spiked, which we know isn't true (or is highly unlikely). So, the question then becomes 'If Weiry is Spiked, why was he Smoked rather than a more active player?'

 

Putting these two points together, the question is - Why is Weiry so important for the Spiked to protect? Why was he Smoked AND Lurched? The Lurching makes sense, as I say, but the Smoking does not when we consider the information at hand. Smoking tends to be done on players who are catching peoples' eyes, or are experienced players, and up until last Night, Weiry was neither. There must be an additional reason for the Spiked to protect him above others.

 

So, my hypothesis is this: Weiry is the Spiked Mistborn. We must be prepared for him to be a Thug today.

 

Following on from the Spiked still using Smoking defensively, there are two possibilities. One, they haven't considered using it offensively, or two, they are worried that there is still a Seeker in the Village. They may in fact not even have a Seeker, but this seems unlikely due to how they've been hitting people.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Unodus he/him]

Well, I'm convinced.

 

It is clear that Weiry (sorry Weiry :[ ) has been lurched and smoked (Wait, who originally claimed Weiry was smoked? I think I missed that... x.x)

 

The only way this scenario could happen is if Weiry was working with someone- and given that we know a certain mischievous group already, we can assume this group is the spiked.

 

Unless Weiry cares to reveal who he was working with- that is the only conclusion that can be drawn.

If another possibility does exist, then I'll happily retract my vote :V 
 

Edited January 19, 2015 by Unodus