Amanuensis he/him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 (edited) So is it elim sided in regular games when villagers publicly vote? I would argue no, it's village sided to keep a public record. The advantage we have here as villagers is we can mislead the elims by saying we vote one way and vote another Elims, on the other hand, are better incentivised to publicize their accurate votes to minimize scrutiny ED1T: Last point is that litigating votes a cycle later wastes time in the later cycle that could be better spent justifying votes that cycle. Edited March 28 by Amanuensis
Myst He/Him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 47 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: So is it elim sided in regular games when villagers publicly vote? I would argue no, it's village sided to keep a public record. The advantage we have here as villagers is we can mislead the elims by saying we vote one way and vote another Elims, on the other hand, are better incentivised to publicize their accurate votes to minimize scrutiny ED1T: Last point is that litigating votes a cycle later wastes time in the later cycle that could be better spent justifying votes that cycle. If we’re going to be misleading people with our votes, what’s the point of saying them?
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Through the Living Mist said: If we’re going to be misleading people with our votes, what’s the point of saying them? Maybe it's my communication skills, but I am not suggesting everyone lies about everything, as that would be chaos. Some people are arguing that it's anti-town to keep a public record of votes. This is a false premise based on this game behaving different than standard mafia. I personally find that line of thought as anti-Town and will continue to suspect it accordingly. In a normal game, everyone votes publicly, which benefits the Village. In this game, everyone votes privately, which benefits whoever uses the mechanic best. The question is what do we do? Keep votes secret? No, this leaves us uncoordinated. Don't specify exact values, just list of suspicions and who you are likely to vote for? This is great as it means nothing is set in stone until the flip, so if elims are anywhere within the top three, they will need to react accordingly. How about saying your explicit values, being honest about some, and lying about others? This gives elims a false sense of security. I have already telegraphed I am going to be a chaos gremlin, and I have also told my House the details of my plan that I am willing to let the elims know, but not specific details in hopes of catching a leak without compromising my entire plan. This means I can only do so much with my own votes. However, if other villagers can think of a way to make elims think you're putting a -3 on a leading train but are actually giving them a +3 and the other wagon you suspect more a -3, we have a chance to catch them piling votes to save the actual elim that dies. Especially since elims will often hop on the village consensus This is also a C1 with 17 players. We have the numbers advantage and are not in danger of losing today or anytime soon. There is room for us to experiment and innovate. Just imagine a scenario where the elims comfortably believe only three villagers are in danger, only for the next cycle to reveal that a bunch of villagers mislead them and ended up voting out an elim. If an elim is not already in danger but gets exed, it just about guarantees no bussing had occurred, giving us a bunch of soft clears. Use your imagination! Be bold! Edited March 28 by Amanuensis
Doc12 Posted March 28 Posted March 28 15 hours ago, Amanuensis said: (9-17) Araris: Vergrass (2), TUM (1-3), Wahr (1-3), Mist (3), TJ (1-3), coco (1-3), (6-10) Aman: Vergrass (1), TUM (1-3), Mist (2), Twin (1), coco (1-3), (4-8) TUM: Twin (2), Araris (1-3), coco (1-3), (4-6) Wahr: Twin (3), Araris (1-3), (4-6) Twin: Aman (3), Wahr (1-3), (3-7) coco: Araris (1-3), Doc (1-3), Mist (1), (2-6) Hopper: Doc (1-3), TJ (1-3), (2-6) Doc: TUM (1-3), Wahr (1-3), (1-3) Vergrass: Doc (1-3), Hm. What is your plan here? I'm assuming you don't actually want to be exed Regardless, it seems like there hasn't been a huge shift in votes. @coco.pudding you responded to my post last night about not wanting to vote on Aman/Araris/TUM anymore. Care to tell us who you would exe now? 3 hours ago, Frozen Mint said: My current village reads are Mist and Fallen. Mist, because how they tried to catch Aman's "slip up" very early in the cycle felt village to me. It was also mentioned that Fallen was pushing for a prefect to be selected, which also sounds like a village move. Curious if anyone in Ravenclaw could elaborate on how the prefect vote has been going and if there has been any disagreement or debate on who should be prefect? @mippo (since you had mentioned people are just voting) i don't think this is a thing just you have been saying, but curious why Fallen going for prefect makes her seem more village, while Hopper seems more elim for the same reason?
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 2 minutes ago, Doc12 said: What is your plan here? I'm assuming you don't actually want to be exed Bold of you to assume that's Plan A actually. Ed1t: Eh I'll just share this much as the Gryffinmole will have already reported at least this bit. I am using myself as ML bait instead of someone else. I would be happy with the outcome where I die before a v!Araris or v!TUM. I will also feels less guilt if I get one of them killed just to get exed myself later. Since people are suspicious of me, I would rather save myself the time / energy fighting it later on when it matters a lot more that we don't waste an exe on a villager. The benefit of living in spite of this gambit is that it would be insanely risky to intentionally encourage me to be in the top wagons. I hope that it might get people to back off and look somewhere helpful
coco.pudding she/they Posted March 28 Posted March 28 27 minutes ago, Doc12 said: @coco.pudding you responded to my post last night about not wanting to vote on Aman/Araris/TUM anymore. Care to tell us who you would exe now? I’m not entirely sure yet. I do want to keep it in Slytherin hot unfortunately those are the ones I’m most sus of in Slytherin. I’ve been thinking about it though. I’ll try to at least keep one Slytherin in there and then probably go for other houses for the other two with people I’m a bit more actively sus of. Might end up being TwinStorm, Hopper, someone else. Pluses will likely stay the same as I said earlier but we’ll see. I’ll give a definitive list (without numbers tho) before end of cycle. I still think that could give the elims an easy way to manipulate the vote but I’m willing to share if that’s what it takes.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Through The Living Grass said: ML bait? ML = miss exe (L is an artifact from the original term). So any villager that gets exed. Bait just means they're placed within contention to give elims an easy out ED1T: I also should add that we'd probably be better off killing within a smaller faction first rather than the big one. If Gryffindor is V/V/E, then it's a 33% chance. If Slytherin is 6V2E, it's 25%. 7V1E makes that 12.5% chance 1 in Ravenclaw is also 25% but with less people to debate 1 in Hufflepuff is 50% I am also warming up to the idea that Hufflepuff is E/E or V/E Edited March 28 by Amanuensis
Myst He/Him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: ML = miss exe (L is an artifact from the original term). So any villager that gets exed. Bait just means they're placed within contention to give elims an easy out ED1T: I also should add that we'd probably be better off killing within a smaller faction first rather than the big one. If Gryffindor is V/V/E, then it's a 33% chance. If Slytherin is 6V2E, it's 25%. 7V1E makes that 12.5% chance 1 in Ravenclaw is also 25% but with less people to debate 1 in Hufflepuff is 50% I am also warming up to the idea that Hufflepuff is E/E or V/E You’re right, if either Ver or I are Elim, you have the greatest chance of exing an Elim. However: Thats only true d2 onwards, otherwise you’re just exing me because we don’t exe new people d1. So its kinda just a “is Mist Elim” thing not a “We have 50/50 odds” thing. Also, you’re ignoring that just going by chance, we are the least likely to be Elim. (using my theory of 3 Elims) each person has a 3/17 chance of being Elim, the chance of at least one Elim in Ver and I is lower than there being an Elim in any other house
Doc12 Posted March 28 Posted March 28 22 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: ML = miss exe (L is an artifact from the original term). So any villager that gets exed. Bait just means they're placed within contention to give elims an easy out ED1T: I also should add that we'd probably be better off killing within a smaller faction first rather than the big one. If Gryffindor is V/V/E, then it's a 33% chance. If Slytherin is 6V2E, it's 25%. 7V1E makes that 12.5% chance 1 in Ravenclaw is also 25% but with less people to debate 1 in Hufflepuff is 50% I am also warming up to the idea that Hufflepuff is E/E or V/E Fun! That does assume that the elims aren't bunched up, but yeah. Where are you getting your hufflepuff read from?
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Doc12 said: Fun! That does assume that the elims aren't bunched up, but yeah. Where are you getting your hufflepuff read from? Not a read on the players. Just a valid GM troll given the consensus D1 has been exe within Slytherin, and it's my impression that is the most beneficial situation to elims Like if I was GMing, I would seriously consider putting at least one elim in the 2 person House. Otherwise both players are soft cleared from the start 16 minutes ago, Through the Living Mist said: You’re right, if either Ver or I are Elim, you have the greatest chance of exing an Elim. However: Thats only true d2 onwards, otherwise you’re just exing me because we don’t exe new people d1. Interesting. I have been saying V!Mist > V!Grass. Who said we should exe you? If anything I would rather us murder all of Gryffindor first This is what I would call a slip Edited March 28 by Amanuensis
Myst He/Him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Not a read on the players. Just a valid GM troll given the consensus D1 has been exe within Slytherin, and it's my impression that is the most beneficial situation to elims Like if I was GMing, I would seriously consider putting at least one elim in the 2 person House. Otherwise both players are soft cleared from the start Interesting. I have been saying V!Mist > V!Grass. Who said we should exe you? If anything I would rather us murder all of Gryffindor first This is what I would call a slip You said we should exe a Hufflepuff. Theres only two Hufflepuffs. We’re not exeing Ver till d2 onwards because he’s new. That leaves me as the only other option
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 1 minute ago, Through the Living Mist said: You said we should exe a Hufflepuff. Theres only two Hufflepuffs. We’re not exeing Ver till d2 onwards because he’s new. That leaves me as the only other option Did I say we should exe a Hufflepuff? I would read the post again
Myst He/Him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 44 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I also should add that we'd probably be better off killing within a smaller faction first rather than the big one. 1 in Hufflepuff is 50% I am also warming up to the idea that Hufflepuff is E/E or V/E How else am I supposed to interpret this? Just now, Amanuensis said: Did I say we should exe a Hufflepuff? I would read the post again
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 44 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I also should add that we'd probably be better off killing within a smaller faction first rather than the big one. If Gryffindor is V/V/E, then it's a 33% chance. If Slytherin is 6V2E, it's 25%. 7V1E makes that 12.5% chance 1 in Ravenclaw is also 25% but with less people to debate 1 in Hufflepuff is 50% I am also warming up to the idea that Hufflepuff is E/E or V/E Smaller =/= Smallest Warming Up =/= Confident Me thinks the misty doth protest too much 1
Myst He/Him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 Just now, Amanuensis said: Smaller =/= Smallest Warming Up =/= Confident I’d be worried if you were confident. We don’t know enough to be confident. As such, “warming up” is the closest we can be to confident right now(unless your Elim, but that’s an entirely different conversation)
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 Just now, Through the Living Mist said: I’d be worried if you were confident. We don’t know enough to be confident. As such, “warming up” is the closest we can be to confident right now(unless your Elim, but that’s an entirely different conversation) Yes but I think subconsciously speaking, it's interesting that you immediately jump to a conclusion that assumes you die. I also think it's interesting that you are suspicious of me but pushing back like you know I'm village.
Myst He/Him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 Just now, Amanuensis said: Yes but I think subconsciously speaking, it's interesting that you immediately jump to a conclusion that assumes you die. I also think it's interesting that you are suspicious of me but pushing back like you know I'm village. I’ve been assuming that I’d die cycle 1 this entire time, just ask Ver I actually don’t think you are Elim, just throwing out the possibility.
Myst He/Him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 1 minute ago, Doc12 said: Gimme a sec to go through his posts, I’ll find another lol
coco.pudding she/they Posted March 28 Posted March 28 1 minute ago, Amanuensis said: Did I say we should exe a Hufflepuff? I would read the post again You didn’t but that was the most obvious extrapolation from what you did say Anyway about to put in my votes, negatives going on Araris and Hopper for now. May add another later but probably not.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 (edited) 9 minutes ago, coco.pudding said: You didn’t but that was the most obvious extrapolation from what you did say Anyway about to put in my votes, negatives going on Araris and Hopper for now. May add another later but probably not. Was it? I thought village consensus is that Hufflepuff is V/V? Just because I am warmed to the idea doesn't mean others are. Again, if I meant smallest I would say smallest I think this is why I'm confused I am one guy in a group of 17. I am not the village as a whole. I have no control of others reads, votes, or actions. What I can control is my words though, and some people in particular seem concerned with keeping me quiet when I buck against presumptions Edited March 28 by Amanuensis
coco.pudding she/they Posted March 28 Posted March 28 Just now, Amanuensis said: Was it? I thought village consensus us that Hufflepuff is V/V? Just because I am warmed to the idea doesn't mean others are. Again, if I meant smallest I would say smallest Yes, at least in my mind since you were listing basically the chance of hitting an elim if there was one in that house, and since Hufflepuff is the highest chance the most logical takeaway is that you think we should be voting for one. But you have explained why that was not your intention since, so I dont think it’s an issue.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 16 minutes ago, Through the Living Mist said: I’ve been assuming that I’d die cycle 1 this entire time, just ask Ver I actually don’t think you are Elim, just throwing out the possibility. Die from NK or exe? If you presume NK then I am helping you out if you are V and I am pushing against village consensus of you being V, then they might shoot elsewhere
Myst He/Him Posted March 28 Posted March 28 1 minute ago, Amanuensis said: Die from NK or exe? If you presume NK then I am helping you out if you are V and I am pushing against village consensus of you being V, then they might shoot elsewhere NK. From what I can tell, I am the single best target And I actually don’t think so, everything I have for why I’m the best target is still true, considering that
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