Kaladin and Fortune

[Kfish]

I am relistening to Words of Radiance and realized something - the first time Taravangian and the diagram fail is when Kaladin fights and beats Szeth. The diagram saw many people and was almost assuredly made with access to fortune. It didn't see Kaladin specifically. It saw that some people would get oaths but the existence of Kaladin was the first thing that beat taravangian. 

 

Later, in Wind and Truth, Ishar says he did not "see" Kaladin in his plans. We know Ishar accessed fortune. 

 

 

 

The Wind clearly has access to fortune. Has the wind been influencing Kaladin in subtle ways causing him to be hard to see with Fortune? I think the only time we know that someone DID foresee things about him was Odium when he told Rayse that Kaladin would become more dangerous. 

[Jult]

2 hours ago, Kfish said:

The diagram saw many people and was almost assuredly made with access to fortune

Actually, in Oathbringer, Rayse taunts/compliments Taravangian about how impressive the Diagram is for having been created without access to Fortune.

Spoiler

Quote

“Taravangian!” Odium said. “This is remarkable.” The walls and furniture faded, leaving behind the words, which hung in the air and started glowing with a golden light. “You did this without access to Fortune, or the Spiritual Realm? Truly incredible.”

“Th-thank you?”

“Allow me to show you how far I see.”

Golden words exploded outward from the ones Taravangian had written in the Diagram. Millions upon millions of golden letters burned into the air, extending into infinity. Each took one small element that Taravangian had written, and expanded upon it in volumes and volumes’ worth of information.

Taravangian gasped as, for a moment, he saw into eternity.

-OB Chapter 122

Taravangian's predictions were very accurate, but they were calculated from the information that he had available to him and Kaladin's existence wasn't included in that information.

As for Ishar, I don't actually think he was specified to be using Fortune. I think he only briefly glimpsed into the Spiritual Realm, which (based on the Rayse quote) above seems to be a separate means from Fortune for seeing the future. 

That's just me being nitpicky about definitions though. Whether by Fortune or some other means, Ishar did seem to be using some kind of future sight. And he mentions twice how strange it is that he missed Kaladin, especially considering Kaladin's Connections to Szeth and Dalinar, who Ishar was watching closely. Wind could be causing this. But I think the more likely culprits are Rlain and Tumi. Rlain bonds Tumi immediately before Navani bonds the Sibling. And Ishar saw into the Spiritual Realm because of Navani bonding the Sibling.

Spoiler

Quote

Dalinar had mentioned this. At the instant Navani had become a Bondsmith, Ishar had seen into the Spiritual Realm and grown lucid for a short time.

-WaT Chapter 33

I think Rlain and Tumi's presence at Urithiru hid Kaladin from Ishar in the same way that Renarin and Glys hid things from Odium.