Is He Bound by the Contract?

[Returned he/him]

1 hour ago, robardin said:

Given that the newly disintegrated Hoid reincorporated on Scadrial soon after the faked "coach accident" with Wax's uncle Edwarn, the Set had already been machinating there.

I guess with the time dilation thing, and if Hoid's regeneration took a few weeks, it'd be possible that Retribution was involved in setting those events in motion, in cahoots with Autonomy or else (less likely?) manipulating her into moving against Harmony and Scadrial

(I say "less likely" because Autonomy has been doing what she's doing for far longer than Taravangian has been a Shard)

Did Autonomy create the Set, or simply use or co-opt it? I'm certain I don't know, though a definitive answer may exist somewhere. I'm in the right place to find out! 

As for the rest I can only guess. I suspect that the time dilation is less applicable to shards than to mortals, since the shards exist primarily in the spiritual realm where time is less relevant and doesn't track with the physical and cognitive. Taravangian seems pretty good at "persuading" others to act as he wants, or failing that to make use of circumstances as they are. Though you are right to suggest that Taravangian did not prompt Autonomy's assault on Scadrial.

As you say, Autonomy was almost certainly moving there no later than the events of Rhythm of War, per the epigraphs, suggesting that those events pre-dated Retribution's birth. Maybe Taravangian's play was related to drawing attention to those events on Scadrial, or to highlight Harmony's difficulties in acting as an indication to other shards that a dual-shard wielder isn't such a big threat? Or to urge Autonomy's plans to move more quickly than originally intended? In any case my suggestion was that Taravangian is influencing events elsewhere in the cosmere but not necessarily going there himself, which would cut against his need to travel in order to pursue his goals.

The dual-extremity nature of futuresight really makes it difficult to guess at shardic plans, but it seems like Taravangian isn't interested in another brawl like happened with Ambition and Mercy. I wonder why that is, since it seems like he should be more favored to win than Odium was in that struggle, which Rayse won but also didn't want to repeat. "Hurt in some way during the struggle" might be the answer, if an unsatisfying one, but that seems like it should cut the other way too and mean Retribution shouldn't fear such an assault from others. What does Retribution have to worry about, with respect to its own being?

Do we have any indications of what a shard-on-shard, all-out fight actually entails?

Edited December 17, 2024 by Returned

[Immortal Platypus]

1 hour ago, Returned said:

Do we have any indications of what a shard-on-shard, all-out fight actually entails?

Mass destruction. In Tanavast POV we see the Silver Kingdoms destroyed in a simple touch of Honor's power to Odium's. We also see that multiple planets were destroyed in the Odium/Mercy/Ambition brawl. That only involved three Shards. A fight between Retribution and any other Shard would involve at least that much power, more depending on how many Shards join in. The big going theory for why the Odium/Devotion/Dominion fight didn't end the same way is because Rayse manipulated them into fighting each other, then 3rd partied and killed them both.

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The dual-extremity nature of futuresight really makes it difficult to guess at shardic plans, but it seems like Taravangian isn't interested in another brawl like happened with Ambition and Mercy. I wonder why that is, since it seems like he should be more favored to win than Odium was in that struggle, which Rayse won but also didn't want to repeat. "Hurt in some way during the struggle" might be the answer, if an unsatisfying one, but that seems like it should cut the other way too and mean Retribution shouldn't fear such an assault from others. What does Retribution have to worry about, with respect to its own being?

Hurt in some way for them, but Splintered for his power and dead for him. Remember the Sunmaker's gambit? Retribution vs Valor + Cultivation + Invention + Mercy + etc. isn't favored for Retribution. The bigger force is the 9ish Shards that would be working against him, not him. He holds 2 Shards, which means he would be favored in a 1v1 (except maybe Harmony), but against 3 other Shards, they're favored. Even if Autonomy worked with him, that's only 3. Excluding Harmony because he can't really act, it's a 3 vs 8 if all of the others fight against them. not great odds for the 3. Worse if Harmony becomes Discord (like is theorized) and is able to act with either or both of his Shards. then it would be 3 v 10. That would be a very difficult fight to win.

[Returned he/him]

14 hours ago, Ookla the Arbiter said:

Mass destruction. In Tanavast POV we see the Silver Kingdoms destroyed in a simple touch of Honor's power to Odium's. We also see that multiple planets were destroyed in the Odium/Mercy/Ambition brawl.

I was wondering more about the mechanics of the fights. My original ideas about how Shard-Shard interactions worked didn't survive the new information we got in WaT, and it now seems like it's essentially a Shard-level version of punching each other with Shard-level collateral impacts on the world across the realms. As for the scale of the destruction you're certainly right, but my question there is: would Taravangian/Retribution care about that? He was pretty ready to annihilate Karbranth, and even if he scooped up the souls of all the people there he still killed them and broadly removed them from existence. Do you think that Taravangian has some restraining factor or idea that would keep him from considering a destroyed world as an acceptable loss for taking down another Shard? (That's the collective you, all Sharders' ideas are welcome).

14 hours ago, Ookla the Arbiter said:

Retribution vs Valor + Cultivation + Invention + Mercy + etc. isn't favored for Retribution. The bigger force is the 9ish Shards that would be working against him, not him. He holds 2 Shards, which means he would be favored in a 1v1 (except maybe Harmony), but against 3 other Shards, they're favored.

This I'm not totally convinced of. I agree with the basic outline, that 9 vs. 1 would not be a good situation for Taravangian to be in, but we have a good amount of evidence that the Shards usually do not work well together, and certainly not over longer spans of time. It's not clear to me that Retribution's threat to them would galvanize any given number of Shards to cooperate, nor that they would be able to do so effectively. It's a danger, but seems more like an edge case than the most likely one to me. And even if it were to happen, I haven't seen any reason to think that Retribution would be better situated to deal with it anywhere other than the Rosharan system.

I also don't think that the math is quite as tidy as you suggest, though this is a pretty minor point. Odium won against Ambition and Mercy, which as far as we know was a 2-on-1 battle, which suggests that a 3-on-2 battle (counting by individual Shards, rather than vessels) is hardly a foregone conclusion. If Retribution simply attacked Autonomy or Endowment in this manner, how quickly could other Shards arrive to help, and would they choose to do so in that way? Would enough Shards count on enough other Shards arriving to help to improve their chances as you describe?

What we've seen strongly suggests that since the fight on Threnody Shards have been very reluctant to do direct battle with each other, with a minor and partial exception for Tanavast and Odium on Ashyn. We still don't know enough details about why that is. But if Retribution is likely to win any given direct encounter with fewer than four Shards arrayed against him, and he doesn't care about collateral damage, it's not obvious to me that he has to fear a combined assault. The Sunmaker's Gambit referenced upthread converts a battle into a political problem subject to negotiation, not just a reversal of fortunes in that battle. Whatever it is that Retribution is specifically concerned about it does not seem like it is getting beaten to death by a united coalition of all the other Shards. That's my read on the current situation, at least. What do other people think about Retribution's position and plans?

[Immortal Platypus]

2 hours ago, Returned said:

I was wondering more about the mechanics of the fights. My original ideas about how Shard-Shard interactions worked didn't survive the new information we got in WaT, and it now seems like it's essentially a Shard-level version of punching each other with Shard-level collateral impacts on the world across the realms. As for the scale of the destruction you're certainly right, but my question there is: would Taravangian/Retribution care about that?

I don't think we know much about the mechanics of fights. It's probably just a cosmic slugfest, kinda like what we see in HoA.

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He was pretty ready to annihilate Karbranth, and even if he scooped up the souls of all the people there he still killed them and broadly removed them from existence. Do you think that Taravangian has some restraining factor or idea that would keep him from considering a destroyed world as an acceptable loss for taking down another Shard? (That's the collective you, all Sharders' ideas are welcome).

Actually, he wasn't ready to annihilate Karbranth. If he was, he wouldn't have scooped up all the people and put the in SR, hiding them so other Shards couldn't find them. I believe that it's stated, from Taravangian, near the beginning, that his goal is to protect the people of Karbranth, and secondarily, Roshar. That's his whole motive for destroying other Shards: they're the only things that can really compete with him for control of all things.

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This I'm not totally convinced of. I agree with the basic outline, that 9 vs. 1 would not be a good situation for Taravangian to be in, but we have a good amount of evidence that the Shards usually do not work well together, and certainly not over longer spans of time. It's not clear to me that Retribution's threat to them would galvanize any given number of Shards to cooperate, nor that they would be able to do so effectively. It's a danger, but seems more like an edge case than the most likely one to me. And even if it were to happen, I haven't seen any reason to think that Retribution would be better situated to deal with it anywhere other than the Rosharan system.

I wasn't stating that it would happen like that, but I do think that several Shards would be willing to fight him. Harmony seems very opposed to him, so if he fights him, being able to act (as Discord), that's pretty much even odds right there. Add in Valor (another one that I think would be willing to fight him) and/or Autonomy (probably picks whoever she thinks will win in order to backstab them afterward) and/or Reason, Invention, or any other Shard, and you've got a losing fight for him.

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I also don't think that the math is quite as tidy as you suggest, though this is a pretty minor point. Odium won against Ambition and Mercy, which as far as we know was a 2-on-1 battle, which suggests that a 3-on-2 battle (counting by individual Shards, rather than vessels) is hardly a foregone conclusion. If Retribution simply attacked Autonomy or Endowment in this manner, how quickly could other Shards arrive to help, and would they choose to do so in that way? Would enough Shards count on enough other Shards arriving to help to improve their chances as you describe?

We actually don't know if it was a 2v1 for or against Odium, or even if it was a 1v1v1. All we know is that Mercy was involved in the fight, not who they fought. We actually already know, per WOB, that a wise Shard (which I would say applies to Retribution) would probably avoid conflict with another Shard because it's risky. If Retribution attack other Shards, Valor arriving (which I think they would) would make it a 2v2 in power, and anyone else would probably tip the scale. Discord (assuming Harmony has changed into Discord) would probably intervene, as we already see Sazed is quite opposed to Odium, and would probably be opposed to Retribution. With Discord + any other Shard, they could probably beat Retribution.

Spoiler

Khyrindor

Odium seems to have a bad track record when it comes to killing Shards. He was wounded versus Ambition, and he's trapped on Roshar. Yet, he's credited in killing Devotion and Dominion. My question is: was Autonomy significantly involved and would Odium have been able to do it on his own and still be okay to--

Brandon Sanderson

RAFO. It is dangerous to attack a Shard with one Shard. Let's say that. And a wise Shard would try to avoid that confrontation unless there are specific reasons they think they would have an advantage.

Skyward Seattle signing (Nov. 10, 2018)

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What we've seen strongly suggests that since the fight on Threnody Shards have been very reluctant to do direct battle with each other, with a minor and partial exception for Tanavast and Odium on Ashyn. We still don't know enough details about why that is. But if Retribution is likely to win any given direct encounter with fewer than four Shards arrayed against him, and he doesn't care about collateral damage, it's not obvious to me that he has to fear a combined assault. The Sunmaker's Gambit referenced upthread converts a battle into a political problem subject to negotiation, not just a reversal of fortunes in that battle. Whatever it is that Retribution is specifically concerned about it does not seem like it is getting beaten to death by a united coalition of all the other Shards. That's my read on the current situation, at least. What do other people think about Retribution's position and plans?

Retribution isn't likely to win a direct encounter with less than four Shards. Your premise is flawed. Three Shards, they almost certainly win. 2v2 is probably a draw, or what happened in HoA. Also, he does care about collateral damage, if it's to Roshar or to the people of Karbranth. I would say he is pretty worried about getting killed by a coalition of Shards, because all of them want to live, and he is the greatest threat. He has shown himself willing to kill other Shards (others might not even know that it's not Rayse anymore), Cultivation was clearly terrified of him (so the other Shards would probably feel a somewhat similar emotion), and so he is obviously the greatest threat. He holds ~2x power compared to other Shards (besides Harmony, but he can't act and isn't a threat), so the political problem likely results in him getting killed. That's why he hid.