What if Kaladin never volunteered?

[Acolyte of Radiance]

What do you think would be different,and how screwed would Roshar be?

[alder24]

56 minutes ago, Acolyte of Radiance said:

What do you think would be different,and how screwed would Roshar be?

You mean volunteered into Amaram's army? That's fun to speculate. I'm guessing Kaladin would still end up as a Windrunner at the Shattered Plains due to Fortune and Connection whims, but through a different way. Without Kaladin, Amaram would be dead, while Helaran would be alive and a full Skybreaker. Kaladin however would travel to Kharbranth to train as a professional surgeon, setting the stage for a grand conflict with Taravangian. I think eventually Kaladin would discover the true purpose of Taravangain's hospitals and he would meet with Jasnah and Shallan eventually. Together they would expose Taravangian and overthrow him, dismantling the Diagram. This is also the moment Kaladin would swear the second Ideal - the end of WoK.

Then we have WoR, Kaladin, Shallan and Jasnah travel together by a ship to the Shattered Plains, Kaladin would foil Ghostbloods assassination attempt, guaranteeing their safe arrival at the Shattered Plains - which would prevent Shallan's Ghostblood story arc from happening. And what would they see at the Shattered Plains? Chaos. Dalinar is dead, killed together with his army by Parshendi during the battle of the Tower, Renarin is now a Highprince, while the king is under Sadeas' heavy influence. Jasnah's presence would shake the entire political stage, providing counterbalance to Sadeas' camp. Shallan would be engaged with Renarin instead (sadly), while Kaladin would not be organizing any sizable army - instead he would be like a private guard of Jasnah/Renarin, maybe joining the Cobalt Guard. However, the defeat of Taravangian and the Diagram would mean that Szeth was not sent on the murder spree across Roshar and he certainly isn't active at the Shattered Plains anymore. Eventually Jasnah's drive to discover Urithiru would lead to a similar expedition into the center of the Plain, probably not as sizable as it used to be. The Everstorm would still be summoned, but most Listeners would survive it this time - and they would stil bel active in this region during future Desolation.

Starting with OB - Urithiru is rediscovered, Knights Radiant returned, but there is no Bondsmith, no Stormfather. The assembly of the coalition against Odium would be much harder without Dalinar. However a side effect of Szeth not murdering people with crowns, would be that most countries are far better prepared for the incoming Desolation. Most importantly Jah Keved is at its prime, with their military might ready to respond to a sudden Voidbringer attack. However I wonder if they would join their Vorin Alethi brothers with their struggles, who are similarly overrun and under siege as they were in real OB, or rather attack Alethkar instead, defeating the Voidbringers, but also occupying the country as well. I suspect they would become allies because of the Vorin religion. The mission to Kholinar will still happen, but this time it would be a smaller reinforcement mission, brace the city while awaiting a land relief force from Jah Keved - which this time would be fully successful as it doesn't rely on opening an Oathgate. Elhokar might even survive. Without both Dalinar and Taravangian, the coalition would struggle to be established, it's likely that Azir won't join, but maybe the Vorin coalition would be established (if Jah Keved doesn't attack Alethkar). In the end, Alethkar wouldn't fall into Odium's hands, but Thaylenah would certainly be conquered. 

It's really hard to predict what would happen in RoW at this point. Everything that we know was a direct response to what happened in OB and with the timeline completely shifted, it's hard to predict what Odium would do with his success in Thaylenah, his failure in Alethkar and how would a smaller, but not weaken by internal conflicts, coalition with no Bondsmith respond to him. Urithiru invasion is probably off the table, because there won't be a way for Odium to lure coalition forces out into Marat and after their defeat at Thaylenah they would be probably more concerned with defense. There would still be a sizable threat on the Shattered Plains from former Listeners. So I have no idea what would happen next. Odium would probably use his dominance over the Southern ocean to divide coalition, and maybe attack isolated Azir from both Marat and Iri at the same time. I can't really predict anything more. 

 

But there is also another possibility - Kaladin would fail at exposing Taravangian and he would be killed by the Diagram instead. Taravangian's plans would be in full swing and with Dalinar being dead, he would be the leader of the coalition in OB. With his knowledge given by the Diagram, he would be able to probably strike a deal with Odium, stopping the war while saving what's under his rule - the entire coalition. This might require the contest of Champions, or not - it's hard to say. Would he Ascend to Odium without Dalinar? Don't know, it's hard to say. Too many changes to the past creates the butterfly effect and it's hard for me to predict what would happen as the time passes. If he were to Ascend, Taravangian would become Odium and the leader of the entire Roshar - which I think would be a very bad thing.

[JohnnyKaizen he/him]

32 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Eventually Jasnah's drive to discover Urithiru would lead to a similar expedition into the center of the Plain, probably not as sizable as it used to be. The Everstorm would still be summoned, but most Listeners would survive it this time - and they would stil bel active in this region during future Desolation.

Would Eshonai have killed Dalinar? She wanted to beat him into submission to talk to him? Without Kaladin there, she would try to hash things out with him..she was in the middle of the attempt when Kaladin showed up. If she did talk, and they did agree to a truce, it would be a very different sort of return to the warcamps, but it would change a LOT, down the line. I think the Everstorm was inevitable, but it seems to me that without the majority of Listeners to participate in the summoning (which would seem highly likely in this very strange timeline), it wouldn't have been possible to summon it that night. I don't really have a guess as to how much delay that would produce though?

 

32 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Elhokar might even survive.

If Dalinar lived, then I would think that there would be a larger force heading to Elethkar, to retake the capital. Dalinar would be torn between staying and overseeing the peace process. And if the delay to the Everstorm was even by weeks, it would allow for an expedited trip to Urithiru with the guidance of the Listeners. If the timeline I'm describing happened, then Elhokar definitely lives because Dalinar would just take Kaladin as a soldier (probably with some pushback from Jasnah, but I doubt she'd feel the need of protection with her and Shallan being a KRs) and he'd send Kaladin with Elhokar and Co, but in this timeline..Moash was never trained.

If Dalinar didn't live, would Elhokar even go? He wouldn't have Dalinar around to be actively jealous of. Though, let it be said that if anyone could be jealous of a ghost, it would be Elhokar Kholin..so maybe to both going and surviving.

Beyond that, if Dalinar (and maybe Adolin) survived the Battle of the Tower..forming the coalition would be a breeze without Taravangian's meddling. Odium would be on the backfoot in the immediate, and would probably be making some longer term plans. But as you said, all of that is extreme conjecture that would require some serious access to Fortune..or a very thick set of notebooks labeled "Brandon's Various Musings on Roshar." And, as you said, If Dalinar is gone, every thing is exponentially harder for the allied forces.

 

Edited August 13, 2024 by JohnnyKaizen

[alder24]

30 minutes ago, JohnnyKaizen said:

Would Eshonai have killed Dalinar? She wanted to beat him into submission to talk to him? Without Kaladin there, she would try to hash things out with him..she was in the middle of the attempt when Kaladin showed up. If she did talk, and they did agree to a truce, it would be a very different sort of return to the warcamps, but it would change a LOT, down the line. 

I considered this for a moment but in the end I think Dalinar would have no way of cheating death. Firstly and most importantly, Eshonai joined the fight only when Kaladin set his bridge down and Alethi escape began. Before that, she didn't participate, she just watched. She would watch as the fight progressed and see her warriors kill both Dalinar and Adolin and then use their Shards against remaining Alethi. Secondly, there was no way for Dalinar to return back to the camp, even if he were to speak with Eshonai. At best, he would have to be escorted back by Parshendi warform, but I'm not sure if they are even capable of jumping over chasms with a person on their back - I doubt it. Even if Dalinar was returned back to chasms connected by bridges, he would be seen as a traitor. I'm certain Sadeas wouldn't miss his chance to tell a story of how Dalinar tried to lure him into a trap he set up together with the enemy and betray Alethkar by joining Parshendi - the fact that he was carried by them back to the camp and Dalinar started talking about peace with them would only strengthen Sadeas position. 

For Eshonai, the battle of the Tower was a chance to turn the tide of the war. They would see this as an opportunity to annihilate one army and exhaust the enemy. They would gain two sets of Shards. For them it would be a way of showing Alethi that they are too dangerous to continue this war and force them into a negotiating table. Of course this probably wouldn't work, but it's very likely that this is how they view this battle. Killing everyone would be their most desired outcome. This was a war of attrition - in principle dealing huge losses to the enemy would make them more willing to end this war. Parshendi even stopped harvesting the gemheart during the battle of the Tower, because they were so focused on killing all those surrounding Alethi. Dalinar wouldn't survive this battle without Kaladin.

53 minutes ago, JohnnyKaizen said:

If Dalinar didn't live, would Elhokar even go? He wouldn't have Dalinar around to be actively jealous of. Though, let it be said that if anyone could be jealous of a ghost, it would be Elhokar Kholin..so maybe to both going and surviving.

I think he would still want to prove others that he is a good leader and would want the go anyway.