Preservation vs Ruin's futuresight webs

[Ale the Metallic Conjurer]

Making one last post about this before I move onto The Lost Metal, Warbreaker and Stormlight.

So after reading about Kelsier's precognitive plan for Marsh to remove Vin's earring, I speculated on a factor of Preservation vs. Ruin futuresight. I think the Vessels of Preservation see future possibilities that Ati:

1. saw as unlikely possibilities but Ati acted upon - the frail possibility of Vin defeating Ruin.
2. saw as unlikely possibilities and Ati dismissed - Elend sacrificing himself to drive Vin to murder-suicide.
3. future possibilities Ati didn't see at all - the true meaning of the Terris Prophecies.

I don't know which category applies to "the few lines of light" that could save Urteau or get the Shard to Vin, or Marsh taking out Vin's earring because of Spook's message.

I think the Vessels of Preservation saw these unlikely possibilities or possibilities not in Ati's futuresight web, liked them best or felt they were necessary, and did whatever they could to thread towards the gambled possibilities in hopes they could come true. Some gambled possibilities of which are unlikely, fragile, frail to the Vessels of Preservation themselves - the true meaning of the Terris Prophecies, atium Mistings burning all of Ruin's body, Vin defeating Ruin. Also, a member of the Ire implied coincidences are caused by someone drawing upon Fortune. So I think Fortune + more possibilities in Preservation's futuresight web = better plans from its Vessels.

I also think Leras' futuresight had a number of important touchstones:

1. The Well cycle is on a fixed schedule which could be assumed as a given when he started designing his plans.
2. He has invested more of himself into the Scadrians than Ruin had.
3. Leras listens to the hearts of men. He hears the thoughts of all Scadrians, and not just those of the mad or spiked. This telepathic ability is so all-encompassing that Kelsier "knew" Goradel because of the power of Preservation, despite never knowing him. 
4. Ruin is trapped and can only influence texts, the unstable or spiked. Leras is comparatively free to influence the world.
5. A significant portion of Ruin's investiture is separated and placed in the Pits.
6. The Mists cover the world daily and are capable of obeying Leras' instructions like mass Snapping and empowering Vin against the LR.

An interesting thing I noticed was that Kelsier realized only when Sazed took the Shards that he's the Hero of Ages. This could be a hint that Leras knew his true desire for the Terris Prophecies and that the Hero of Ages might appear in the distant future. But he didn't know who the Hero of Ages would be, possibly not even in Sazed's lifetime. But he did whatever he could to thread towards it. This would be consistent with the fact foreseeing a mortal's cause of death isn't infallible in Preservation's futuresight web, so I can only imagine how cloudy it was for Leras to predict Vessel succession would happen after the deaths of himself, Vin and Ati.

I wonder if a big part of this has to do with how the Shards "remember" their Vessels' personalities. Fuzz at least remembers what seems to be Leras' desire to protect the planet. To say that the Shard doesn't "remember" Ati is an understatement. I wonder if Ati's Ruin was once more much more dangerous and precognitively able.

I hope The Lost Metal shows how good Harmony is at seeing the future.
 

[Treamayne]

Interesting theory.

8 hours ago, Ale the Metallic Conjurer said:

I wonder if a big part of this has to do with how the Shards "remember" their Vessels' personalities. Fuzz at least remembers what seems to be Leras' desire to protect the planet. To say that the Shard doesn't "remember" Ati is an understatement. I wonder if Ati's Ruin was once more much more dangerous and precognitively able.

You will get more in this in Stormlight Archive

8 hours ago, Ale the Metallic Conjurer said:

So I think Fortune + more possibilities in Preservation's futuresight web = better plans from its Vessels.

To our current (incomplete) understanding (because Fortune is a Huge RAFO) - Fortune is the term for a Mortal drawing on Futuresight (possibly with a side of "instinct" such as Hoid's repeated "I know I need to be here, but I don't know why").

 

[Y F-N]

Interesting ideas!

On 5/1/2024 at 9:41 PM, Ale the Metallic Conjurer said:

I don't know which category applies to "the few lines of light" that could save Urteau or get the Shard to Vin, or Marsh taking out Vin's earring because of Spook's message.

I personally believe that this particular instance has less to do with futuresight shenanigans and more to do with the fact that while Ruin has near-infinite power, his ability to pay attention to things is more finite. (Certainly far bigger than regular people, but he still can't consciously think about everything at once.) So, during the time in which Kelsier was interfering with Urteau, Ruin was far more focused on Vin. He wasn't paying attention to what was going on with Urteau in his futuresight because he simply didn't care as much about Urteau as he cared about the events in Fadrex City.

On 5/1/2024 at 9:41 PM, Ale the Metallic Conjurer said:

2. He has invested more of himself into the Scadrians than Ruin had.

3. Leras listens to the hearts of men. He hears the thoughts of all Scadrians, and not just those of the mad or spiked. This telepathic ability is so all-encompassing that Kelsier "knew" Goradel because of the power of Preservation, despite never knowing him.

These in particular are very intriguing. I'm sure those ideas and their connection to futuresight are going to be bouncing around in my head for a while. You might be on to something.

[Ale the Metallic Conjurer]

On 5/2/2024 at 6:22 AM, Treamayne said:

Interesting theory.

You will get more in this in Stormlight Archive

To our current (incomplete) understanding (because Fortune is a Huge RAFO) - Fortune is the term for a Mortal drawing on Futuresight (possibly with a side of "instinct" such as Hoid's repeated "I know I need to be here, but I don't know why").

 

I’m excited for Stormlight!!!

I should discuss Fortune whenever I come across it. Though now I’m interested in that “instinct” of Hoid. Where’d you learn it from?

On 5/5/2024 at 5:02 AM, Y F-N said:

Interesting ideas!

I personally believe that this particular instance has less to do with futuresight shenanigans and more to do with the fact that while Ruin has near-infinite power, his ability to pay attention to things is more finite. (Certainly far bigger than regular people, but he still can't consciously think about everything at once.) So, during the time in which Kelsier was interfering with Urteau, Ruin was far more focused on Vin. He wasn't paying attention to what was going on with Urteau in his futuresight because he simply didn't care as much about Urteau as he cared about the events in Fadrex City.

These in particular are very intriguing. I'm sure those ideas and their connection to futuresight are going to be bouncing around in my head for a while. You might be on to something.

I think I have a sightly different idea about Ruin’s failure in Urteau. 

I appreciate the compliment!

[Treamayne]

29 minutes ago, Ale the Metallic Conjurer said:

Though now I’m interested in that “instinct” of Hoid. Where’d you learn it from?

WoB (there are many, but this one sums it up):

Spoiler

Xyrd (paraphrased)

You've mentioned before that Hoid ends up where he needs to be.

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

Yes, and usually without knowing why.

Xyrd (paraphrased)

Is chromium involved in that?

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

Yes. Well, he's not necessarily using chromium, but the underlying mechanic, yes.

Arcanum Unbounded Fort Collins signing (Nov. 29, 2016)

 

[Ale the Metallic Conjurer]

2 hours ago, Treamayne said:

WoB (there are many, but this one sums it up):

  Hide contents

Xyrd (paraphrased)

You've mentioned before that Hoid ends up where he needs to be.

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

Yes, and usually without knowing why.

Xyrd (paraphrased)

Is chromium involved in that?

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

Yes. Well, he's not necessarily using chromium, but the underlying mechanic, yes.

Arcanum Unbounded Fort Collins signing (Nov. 29, 2016)

 

This reminds me of a major plot point in the Gargoyles universe. In the Gargoyles TV show there’s a magical island named Avalon. Going to Avalon is easy. But a visitor going home from Avalon is insanely difficult, and was the driving force for much of Season 2. Avalon doesn’t take you where you want to go, Avalon sends you where you need to be. And the visitor doesn’t know why.

It’s funny you linked the lerasium WoB. I was just thinking about why Hoid didn’t take the last two lerasium beads. I’m thinking Hoid’s Fortune had a vague sense of Preservation’s plan needing Elend to burn the last bead, and knew something bad would happen if he took it.