Anniversary Game 10/Anonymous Game 14: Tyrian Falls Apocalypse

[Pearl Chameleon]

18 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Okay.

 

@Pearl Chameleon Now's the time to reveal whatever it is you haven't revealed. Where's your head at now, given Scorp's flip?

@Chartreuse Penguin Why didn't you consider Scorp at all yesterday?

I thought scorp would flip village mistborn

IDK why though.

anyways, it's exlo but instead of losing, it's a 50-50. I've been surpressing the urge to vote beagle for the sole sake of having an ultimate coin flip showdown with penguin, the ultimate conclusion to the tunnel, but it doesn't matter anyways. We have a 50% chance of winning today, and a 50% chance of winning tomorrow, so the odds are in our favor at a 75% chance of success. Therefore, the lucky coin shall lead us to victory.

AND also, all jokes aside, those ominous eon messages was me trying to get the elims to NK means waste their NK. Didn't work, but at least I tried.

13 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

If you didn’t want to say so, why make that last post? If you were village and got NK’d, what was the point of leaving that post without an attached explanation? Because that defeats the purpose of avoiding NK influence or whatever and right now it looks like intentionally planted IKYK to me. 

I’ve been thinking about both e!Cham and e!Penguin worlds, and e!Cham had a sure fire path to victory if they had killed Penguin overnight, because I was clearly tunnelling Scorp and obviously would have voted him today while Penguin was the only one considering “testing” Cham’s thug claim yesterday. Neither Scorp or myself ever agreed to that, so killing Penguin is 100% always what Cham does. It doesn’t matter if Scorp wasn’t sure on v!Cham because I had clearly been repping that read and in 2v1 you need 2 votes to kill. NKing elsewhere isn’t worth throwing away the assured win, I don’t think.

@Pearl Chameleon I still want to know what you’re thinking. 

I guess thinking about it now it makes sense that I haven’t been kept alive all these days - because I’ve been hard defending Penguin all game. My bad.

More to come later as I’m gathering my thoughts going over the game again, but I’m around 70% convinced right now. 

I think you're wrong reading my NK style. A beagle NK would've been in order because when you're in my position, you just need to hold it. that means giving them two juicy targets to banter between, and making sure you could vote either, and making sure to stay awake at f3 (very bad at doing).

 

[Oxblood Beagle]

7 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Albatross wasn't the leading wagon. Albatross wasn't even close. They had one vote, from you, a post or two earlier. I was in the lead by 4-ish, then the actual runner-up was Iguana with 3. (Plus, one of the main reasons I was getting pushed was all the vote manip on me D1. Hint: there wasn't any vote manip on me D1.)

They came back a few times, but never changed their vote - even when I was in the lead versus Ostrich, and they pointedly posted a vote count without moving their vote. Didn't take the opportunity to save me, didn't take the opportunity to bus me. Voting Ostrich could have even helped them out, but at that point Ostrich was still claimed Elim and an exe on Alb was highly unlikely. Because I'm a Villager, and so Albatross didn't actually have a stake in which Villager got exed.

No, my point is, when Albatross left for the cycle this was the VC:

Now obviously Ostrich is in the lead but Alb and you were just one vote away. Except, e!Alb should know that Ostrich is not in fact an elim conceding but a villager doing whatever test, and he’d have expected the Ostrich train to dissipate once Ostrich came clean. And when the lead train dissipates, the counter wagons take lead. I’m not sure why people kept their votes on Ostrich there after the reveal because it would’ve been more productive to leave him alive for Zebra to shoot later if he didn’t get us an elim exe’d that day (e!Ostrich pretending to be a villager is also good to keep around for another turn to better gauge his interests and find partners, but I digress).

So why does Alb not self pres on to the Penguin train? It doesn’t matter at what point they cast their Lion vote, but the fact that they left it there. Alb for sure would have expected the counter wagons to take the lead sooner or later and he was one of them, only one vote behind Ostrich, at the point where he left the thread. 

Edit:

Oh, and this is something that had totally slipped my mind until now but: @Pearl Chameleon remember back on D1 when Penguin was receiving some votes, they created a group PM at EoD with you, me, and Falcon? And the PM that they sent really looked like they were softing a power role in RP form? That was why I entered N1 defending Penguin. Because I thought they were claiming coinshot or Mistborn or something. But clearly not, because all that group PM was meant to do was make us think this was the case to have us help Penguin out of the D1 exe. Because it certainly worked on me except I didn’t see the PM until the Night turn lol. That’s why I asked falcon why he left his vote on Penguin d1 despite what I perceived to be obvious softing of an important role. Penguin did claim smoker a couple of turns later but I never really thought back to this group PM until now, because in hindsight it really looks like an agenda’d attempt at making us vote to save Penguin during the eod. 

Edited January 25 by Oxblood Beagle
Typo

[Chartreuse Penguin]

14 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Now obviously Ostrich is in the lead but Alb and you were just one vote away. Except, e!Alb should know that Ostrich is not in fact an elim conceding but a villager doing whatever test, and he’d have expected the Ostrich train to dissipate once Ostrich came clean. And when the lead train dissipates, the counter wagons take lead. I’m not sure why people kept their votes on Ostrich there after the reveal because it would’ve been more productive to leave him alive for Zebra to shoot later if he didn’t get us an elim exe’d that day (e!Ostrich pretending to be a villager is also good to keep around for another turn to better gauge his interests and find partners, but I digress).

So why does Alb not self pres on to the Penguin train? It doesn’t matter at what point they cast their Lion vote, but the fact that they left it there. Alb for sure would have expected the counter wagons to take the lead sooner or later and he was one of them, only one vote behind Ostrich, at the point where he left the thread. 

Why should they have expected it to dissipate? Because it didn't. Because the Village tends to look down on Elim claims that are then reversed unless there's very specific circumstances. AG8 Meerkat had to set it up in advance and with Tineye code receipts to prove he'd sent the message. 

And why would Albatross ever choose to "self-pres" on me when there's a claimed elim in the lead for the exe. Sure, they knew it wasn't real - but only because they were an Elim themselves. Village-facing-Albatross can't act on that information, because doing that is what made the AG8 Meerkat play effective.

It would make more sense to either casually hop on Ostrich when they'd seen, or just do what Albatross did for the entire game and not get involved in the exe at all, which is what they did.

 

17 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Oh, and this is something that had totally slipped my mind until now but: @Pearl Chameleon remember back on D1 when Penguin was receiving some votes, they created a group PM at EoD with you, me, and Falcon? And the PM that they sent really looked like they were softing a power role in RP form? That was why I entered N1 defending Penguin. Because I thought they were claiming coinshot or Mistborn or something. But clearly not, because all that group PM was meant to do was make us think this was the case to have us help Penguin out of the D1 exe. Because it certainly worked on me except I didn’t see the PM until the Night turn lol. That’s why I asked falcon why he left his vote on Penguin d1 despite what I perceived to be obvious softing of an important role. Penguin did claim smoker a couple of turns later but I never really thought back to this group PM until now, because in hindsight it really looks like an agenda’d attempt at making us vote to save Penguin during the eod. 

Yeah, no.

I didn't make The Ballista Protocol PM at EoD. You can see if you hover over when the conversation was started - 2:34 PM, three and a half hours before rollover.

I had one vote on me at that time.

I didn't get the second one until 4:49 - and that was from Falcon. Chameleon was also voting me at one point. If that was my attempt to be softing a power role in attempt to get out of an exe, it really didn't do it very well. 

What was I trying to do with that PM? I don't know. RP PMs are something I hadn't tried before, was curious to see how'd it go. I also made it a group of players I trusted at that time, which I'd said earlier in D1, and was hoping that that could maybe lead to something late game. But then the PM didn't go anywhere before I had to start defending myself against the exe (or more the impending Coinshot after) and then Falcon died, and I'd already had a PM with both you and Chameleon. (And in both PMs I claimed not-power-role, directly. I wasn't softing anything. Maybe if you looked in one of my RP posts / how I focused on Seekers you could tell, idk.)

Maybe another reason, but it's one more personal for just how RP goes. But I've been trying to avoid personal arguments. Even if I maybe have some good ones.

Speaking of which.

 

1 hour ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Penguin

Reviewing beagle content. Ocram's razor says to kill penguin because there is a liar and a smoker among us and well, there's certainly one smoker claimed already.

Maybe I should have dealt with the Smoker argument earlier. I don't know. I'm not even sure if I'll have the time/energy to fight this or if I can just trust in Cham and Chance.

But... you know, no.

I'm not sure if you're reviewing things, or if E!Beagle is desperately going through the list of things I've done to find anything that could be made into evidence, or if E!Cham is going to coast on this Thunderdome to a victory, or if everyone's just as tired as I am and wants this to go.

But.

We're going for Occam's Razor Smoker now? After killing Swan for not claiming a powerful role they never used for harm, just to figure out what was even happening? After just turning the Smoker question away in favor of going for Kangaroo? When the offending vote happened six turns ago? We want the simplest explanation now?

Fine, maybe the simplest explanation would have been E!Meerkat. Well, it wasn't. So now we deal with it. Or I guess I do.

Because it's not a question of the simplest for distro's sake. Two explanations: I'm lying, Beagle's lying. Or maybe Chameleon's lying. Elims lie, they do it all the time. It's just a question of whether I decided to lie about my Smoking target for whatever possible advantage that could give me, or one of you two decided to lie about their role for whatever advantage that could give them. And quite a few roles are easy to fake. Elims can pretend to be Lurchers pretty easy. Smokers and Thugs are practically impossible to prove outside of conditions that would get the Elim killed anyway. And Vanilla is easiest to claim of all. 

So somebody's lying. And I'm really hoping it's one of us, and wasn't Swan. (Swan, if you did lie and send us down a wild Smoker chase, my ghost is going to haunt your ghost.)

So does it need less lies for me to be the Smoker more than Beagle? No, not really.

 

But there's one more thing.

Spoiler

Amber Vulture Sasha de Vries, Detective Spiked Thug
Amethyst Scorpion Barney Detective Villager
Azure Mouse Maihler, Meme Artist Village Tineye
Charcoal Hyena Hobbyist Village Smoker
Chartreuse Penguin Murph, Carpenter/Armorer
Coral Swan Ananame, Noble Thief Village Rioter
Cream Tuatara Spiked Rioter
Emerald Falcon Tune, Graffiti Artist Village
Fuchsia Ostrich Endsayer, Endsayer Village
Indigo Weasel Quagmire, 3 "Weasels" in a Trenchcoat Village Smoker
Ivory Dragonfly Bartleby, Witch Doctor Village Mistborn
Magenta Albatross Grandiose Verbosity Spiked
Mauve Crocodile Village
Melon Dingo Barrrrrrrg, Obligator Spiked Seeker
Mint Heron Stray Dog Villager
Onyx Flamingo M, Orator + Researcher Village Tineye
Opal Lion Village Soother
Oxblood Beagle
Pearl Chameleon Samwise, Obligator
Plum Rhinoceros Nalthian Village Soother
Quartz Zebra Zee, Accidentally Spiked Village Coinshot
Saffron Iguana Village Lurcher
Sage Kangaroo Leo, Amnesiac Village 
Salmon Meerkat Sal, Loyalist Village
Sapphire Elephant Forgetful Village

That's the player list. It's also 90% of the Distro list. So we can extrapolate a little bit.

Spoiler

Spiked Rioter
Spiked Seeker
Spiked Thug
Spiked

Village Coinshot
Village Lurcher
Village Mistborn
Village Rioter
Village Smoker
Village Smoker
Village Soother
Village Soother
Village Tineye
Village Tineye
Villager
Villager
Villager
Villager
Villager
Villager
Villager
Villager
 

Chartreuse Penguin - Claimed Smoker
Oxblood Beagle - Claimed Vanilla
Pearl Chameleon - Claimed Thug

If we're going with the Meerkat Smoker argument. We know there's at least one Elim Smoker. If it's me, it's me, if it's Beagle, it's Beagle, if it's Chameleon, it's Chameleon.

But if Beagle, or Chameleon, are the Elim Smoker that protected Meerkat's vote, then I'm still a Village Smoker. If I'm the Elim Smoker, then I'm not Village. Obviously. But it leaves Beagle as Vanilla and Chameleon as Thug.

So, @Oxblood Beagle, @Pearl Chameleon, I'm really curious to hear your guys' thoughts about an E!Seeker, E!Rioter, and finally E!Smoker!Chartreuse-Penguin role distribution that has a total of two Village Smokers.

 

Spoiler

And I think I rest my case, for a bit.

I'm tired, I've got work to do, and as an added bonus had my train of thought interrupted midway through this post by a storming earthquake (small, momentary, undamaging, mind you, but still an earthquake) and had to figure out if what I was saying carried any narrative at all. And I can feel college delaying habits slipping back in again. And I would also really like to write how Murph's reacting to this if only to have an outlet to write into, or maybe even show that a crossbow-rampaging, exe-Hazekiller-sniper, impulsive murderer of a Smoker that I've written can have a heart, or at least pretend enough that he does. But I don't even have time to properly go Dingo, let alone the sense of defeat. Not yet.

Anyway. Mostly I'm saying this now because I've got no idea if I'll have time tomorrow.

Beagle, Chameleon, whichever one of you managed to pull off being a deepwolf and a solo Elim from practically D4, props to you. You've certainly done a better job than AG8 Dingo did, than I probably could have done then or now. (Unless I actually am the last Elim, in which case props to me, because I think I deserve it after all of this. But I'm not, and that's the story I'm sticking with.) 

And... yeah. Going to go do productive things or at least relaxing ones. 

 

[Oxblood Beagle]

1 hour ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Why should they have expected it to dissipate? Because it didn't. Because the Village tends to look down on Elim claims that are then reversed unless there's very specific circumstances. AG8 Meerkat had to set it up in advance and with Tineye code receipts to prove he'd sent the message. 

And why would Albatross ever choose to "self-pres" on me when there's a claimed elim in the lead for the exe. Sure, they knew it wasn't real - but only because they were an Elim themselves. Village-facing-Albatross can't act on that information, because doing that is what made the AG8 Meerkat play effective.

It would make more sense to either casually hop on Ostrich when they'd seen, or just do what Albatross did for the entire game and not get involved in the exe at all, which is what they did.

If I were e!Alb I would've 100% expected that wagon to go away after the reversal. It's incredible that it didn't, and like I said I still dont really know why. We had a coinshot who could've taken care of something like that. 

Well yeah, they wouldn't explicitly call the vote 'self pres' because that would mean TMI'ing Ostrich v. Scorp is a flipped villager - his reaction to Ostrich's gambit was unique and Alb could've easily played along with a perspective like that going 'I don't believe this is real either, so I'm going to vote X instead' because they are seeing a villager reacting exactly like that to Ostrich's claim & not receiving flak for it, and they could've easily used the existing momentum of Scorp's view if they wanted. E!Alb leaving the thread with 3-2-2 wagons knowing that Ostrich is faking concession makes absolutely no sense. What's weirder is that Alb didn't comment on Ostrich's thing at all. Why? I have no idea. I want to say it's because he was hoping for Ostrich to retract the claim while he was on so he wouldn't have to deal with it at all but who knows. All I can gather from this is that Alb could've easily justified a vote on your CW using Scorp's logic or something similar, but he didn't.

1 hour ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

We're going for Occam's Razor Smoker now? After killing Swan for not claiming a powerful role they never used for harm, just to figure out what was even happening? After just turning the Smoker question away in favor of going for Kangaroo? When the offending vote happened six turns ago? We want the simplest explanation now?

Yes

1 hour ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

So, @Oxblood Beagle, @Pearl Chameleon, I'm really curious to hear your guys' thoughts about an E!Seeker, E!Rioter, and finally E!Smoker!Chartreuse-Penguin role distribution that has a total of two Village Smokers.

I don't know. Distro analysis has never been my strong suit. Maybe you're a Mistborn?

1 hour ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Beagle, Chameleon, whichever one of you managed to pull off being a deepwolf and a solo Elim from practically D4, props to you. You've certainly done a better job than AG8 Dingo did, than I probably could have done then or now.

Oh I wish, I do not have the stamina for that. I'd rather ask my teammates to bus me so they're in a good spot and I'm out of the game asap lol.

1 hour ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Unless I actually am the last Elim, in which case props to me, because I think I deserve it after all of this. But I'm not, and that's the story I'm sticking with.

Suuure  I do think you played really well, fwiw.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

16 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

If I were e!Alb I would've 100% expected that wagon to go away after the reversal. It's incredible that it didn't, and like I said I still dont really know why. We had a coinshot who could've taken care of something like that. 

Well yeah, they wouldn't explicitly call the vote 'self pres' because that would mean TMI'ing Ostrich v. Scorp is a flipped villager - his reaction to Ostrich's gambit was unique and Alb could've easily played along with a perspective like that going 'I don't believe this is real either, so I'm going to vote X instead' because they are seeing a villager reacting exactly like that to Ostrich's claim & not receiving flak for it, and they could've easily used the existing momentum of Scorp's view if they wanted. E!Alb leaving the thread with 3-2-2 wagons knowing that Ostrich is faking concession makes absolutely no sense. What's weirder is that Alb didn't comment on Ostrich's thing at all. Why? I have no idea. I want to say it's because he was hoping for Ostrich to retract the claim while he was on so he wouldn't have to deal with it at all but who knows. All I can gather from this is that Alb could've easily justified a vote on your CW using Scorp's logic or something similar, but he didn't.

Hmm.

Albatross did also mention that they had to leave before rollover happened. That's most likely true, thus they knew they might not be back in time to reverse a decision made when Ostrich revealed the ruse (and indeed, if their time frame was correct, they only had ~30 minutes of thread time after Ostrich officially walked it back). It's a reason not to rock the boat, or not to stick out like a sore thumb. No one else voted anyone but Ostrich except, funnily enough, Beagle and Chameleon - you two voted yourselves. 

A few other things:

Albatross knew they had an active teammate, whoever it happens to be among the three of us. Directing an exe away indirectly can be better than directly. 

Albatross could have been more focused on getting a good read from Ostrich - because they did, or managed to tie with Scorpion's read / their place in Ostrich's PoE.

Scorpion had a good deal more trust than Albatross did. That let them get away from more intense scrutiny for not following the lead.

Scorpion also didn't cast a new vote while Ostrich was claimed as an Elim. He just didn't move the vote that was already cast. Maybe that's only a symbolic difference, rather than a functional one, but it is a difference.

 

40 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Yes

Why?

 

41 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

I don't know. Distro analysis has never been my strong suit. Maybe you're a Mistborn?

That... that doesn't fix anything. That would just make the Elim team stronger and the Village still is Smoker-lacking. 

(Thing I didn't really have space for earlier - I'm assuming that the GMs weren't expecting, what, 6 inactivity deaths. But I'm also assuming they had some idea for some of them. Because Weasel was one of the two Confirmed Village Smokers, and they posted once. Not exactly a good balance for allegedly half of the Village's Seeker defense.)

 

45 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Oh I wish, I do not have the stamina for that. I'd rather ask my teammates to bus me so they're in a good spot and I'm out of the game asap lol.

... not really a lot of options for that this game, though ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Do you have thoughts on Chameleon? Because I'm not super liking how they've pretty much coasted this turn so far.

[Oxblood Beagle]

6 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Beagle and Chameleon - you two voted yourselves. 

Don't remind me lol, I thought the game was functionally over or else I'd never self vote as either alignment.

6 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Why?

Because I v read you all game and will always put my personal read over Occam's Razor. Unless it's, you know, where we are now. Where I'm forced to re-evaluate after being wrong so many times.

6 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

That... that doesn't fix anything. That would just make the Elim team stronger and the Village still is Smoker-lacking. 

(Thing I didn't really have space for earlier - I'm assuming that the GMs weren't expecting, what, 6 inactivity deaths. But I'm also assuming they had some idea for some of them. Because Weasel was one of the two Confirmed Village Smokers, and they posted once. Not exactly a good balance for allegedly half of the Village's Seeker defense.)

I guess I don't really see that as a balance problem when we had 2 village smokers and 1 village MB? An e!Seeker isn't really too much of a threat when there are 9 vanillagers, and realistically speaking village power roles usually tend to out themselves early anyway so I'm not sure how powerful an e!seeker is to begin with.

6 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Do you have thoughts on Chameleon? Because I'm not super liking how they've pretty much coasted this turn so far.

Their posts this turn in isolation haven't been particularly inspiring but that doesn't really change the rest of their game, I don't think. I doubt they faked their reaction to Ostrich on D4 (D5?). That was/is the major selling point on v!Cham for me. What do you think their gameplan has been, if theyre elim

 

Edit:

Penguin I’ll just be real here, you can probably tell that I’ve made up my mind and things like this reinforce my view - because why are you questioning Chameleon here? You just analyzed the distro implications in depth and I’m surprised you aren’t just taking Cham’s thug claim at face value here given we had a coinshot, and only a single village protection role has flipped. 1.5 if you count the MB. A v!thug makes sense and is probably crucial to a coinshot distro, especially when the elim team had one too. Even I can see the sense in that and like I keep saying I’m not a distro speculation person. So why haven’t you clocked this yet? When you specifically spent time looking over the distro and the flipped roles? Does the village get a coinshot with just one Lurcher for protection against both that and the NK? Highly unlikely. I’m not a protection role. You aren’t a protection role. Cham’s a claimed protection role since D1 (that’s when they claimed to Mouse I think). 

Edited January 25 by Oxblood Beagle

[Pearl Chameleon]

Penguin

I Trust the lucky coin far more than I should

Penguin, if you're v, I think you would feel more frustrated in this situation. You aren't giving off "I care about who I vote at lylo" vibes. You just want to not be voted.

Also, I'll give it to you, you played really well! No matter what alignment you may flip, you've played really well.

9 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

you have thoughts on Chameleon? Because I'm not super liking how they've pretty much coasted this turn so far.

Well you see I've been playing a game on MU where 2000+ posts each cycle are commonplace, so that's where all my attention has gone. 

Penguin 

[Oxblood Beagle]

1 hour ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

I Trust the lucky coin far more than I should

What do you mean?

 

[Chartreuse Penguin]

11 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

I guess I don't really see that as a balance problem when we had 2 village smokers and 1 village MB? An e!Seeker isn't really too much of a threat when there are 9 vanillagers, and realistically speaking village power roles usually tend to out themselves early anyway so I'm not sure how powerful an e!seeker is to begin with.

I don't know if you played in LG74 or not, but that was a similar distro. They had two Elim Seekers, and the Village had 9 Vanillagers. The Village also had 4 Smokers. And even that cover wasn't enough, because the Elim team played in a way that half the player list claimed to them and the Seekers could fill in the gaps. 

And, depends on the power role. I don't know the last time I was in (or a big part of) a V!Seeker game, but part of the idea of a Seeker is you've got people you've scanned to claim to instead. Coinshots out themselves sometimes, but Lurchers and Mistborn can easily just stay completely silent while doing their thing in the background. 

(Side note - I don't count Mistborn as being every type of role simultaneously. Across the entire game, maybe, and they can leverage what they have. But counting on them to be a Smoker when you need a Smoker, a Lurcher when you need a Lurcher, a Thug when you need a Thug, that tends not to go well.)

(So the math in an E!Penguin world is still 2 Smokers vs 1 E!Seeker, with 1 Smoker that was probably an inactivity threat from the start.)

 

11 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Penguin I’ll just be real here, you can probably tell that I’ve made up my mind and things like this reinforce my view - because why are you questioning Chameleon here? You just analyzed the distro implications in depth and I’m surprised you aren’t just taking Cham’s thug claim at face value here given we had a coinshot, and only a single village protection role has flipped. 1.5 if you count the MB. A v!thug makes sense and is probably crucial to a coinshot distro, especially when the elim team had one too. Even I can see the sense in that and like I keep saying I’m not a distro speculation person. So why haven’t you clocked this yet? When you specifically spent time looking over the distro and the flipped roles? Does the village get a coinshot with just one Lurcher for protection against both that and the NK? Highly unlikely. I’m not a protection role. You aren’t a protection role. Cham’s a claimed protection role since D1 (that’s when they claimed to Mouse I think). 

Yeah, I can tell.

One V!Thug makes sense. It would mean the Village had at least one of every non-Seeker role. But Chameleon doesn't make sense. Nothing about this game has made sense. And Chameleon's lied about their role before. And I know the last Elim has to be a Smoker.

And also - if I die to E!Beagle here, you still have to deal with a coinflip D9. If I swing things around an misexe V!Chameleon, E!Beagle still has to deal with a coinflip D9. If I die to E!Chameleon here, we lose.

And another thing.

 

2 hours ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Penguin

I Trust the lucky coin far more than I should

Penguin, if you're v, I think you would feel more frustrated in this situation. You aren't giving off "I care about who I vote at lylo" vibes. You just want to not be voted.

Also, I'll give it to you, you played really well! No matter what alignment you may flip, you've played really well.

Well you see I've been playing a game on MU where 2000+ posts each cycle are commonplace, so that's where all my attention has gone. 

Penguin 

... really.

Okay, a laundry list of things then.

• Chameleon, you posted earlier that it's a Coinflip for you. It's not. Next cycle it's a Coinflip for you. This cycle, you can make a choice, and if you're right you avoid the Coinflip entirely. Unless you make it a Coinflip.
• Hi. I'm frustrated. I'm trying not to be, because I would rather fight this logically rather than emotionally because I've never seen that end well for anyone. But if you can't tell my last two posts were frustrated then I don't know what to think.
• If you can read through 2000+ posts on MU, you can read through the twenty posts here.
• Any thoughts on the distro discussion?

[Pearl Chameleon]

1 hour ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

• Chameleon, you posted earlier that it's a Coinflip for you. It's not. Next cycle it's a Coinflip for you. This cycle, you can make a choice, and if you're right you avoid the Coinflip entirely. Unless you make it a Coinflip.
• Hi. I'm frustrated. I'm trying not to be, because I would rather fight this logically rather than emotionally because I've never seen that end well for anyone. But if you can't tell my last two posts were frustrated then I don't know what to think.
• If you can read through 2000+ posts on MU, you can read through the twenty posts here.
• Any thoughts on the distro discussion?

Hmmm

Never had so much power

Feel like self voting

Also 2000 posts on MU is 100x more interesting than what's happening here. This game is on auto essentially, and it's over one way or another.

distro discussion:

e!mistborn beagle

v!smoker penguin

v!thug Cham

or 

v!vanilla beagle

e!smoker penguin

v!thug Cham

the game is over

pick your fate

[Chartreuse Penguin]

12 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Also 2000 posts on MU is 100x more interesting than what's happening here. This game is on auto essentially, and it's over one way or another.

…

Either we have one Villager who’s decided they’re not going to change their mind, or one Villager who’s decided they’re going to play on autopilot. And if you both are convinced I’m Elim, then somehow that Village has both.

Oxblood Beagle

Pearl Chameleon

I don’t know which one of you is the Elim here, and maybe there’s more evidence one way or another. But I’d rather lose to Beagle than lose to Chameleon at this point.

[Pearl Chameleon]

This game

Smh smh smh

11 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

…

Either we have one Villager who’s decided they’re not going to change their mind, or one Villager who’s decided they’re going to play on autopilot. And if you both are convinced I’m Elim, then somehow that Village has both.

Oxblood Beagle

Pearl Chameleon

I don’t know which one of you is the Elim here, and maybe there’s more evidence one way or another. But I’d rather lose to Beagle than lose to Chameleon at this point.

Just so you know, I've requested a sub a very long time ago. As you may have noticed, I am still not subbed. So yeah, I am not totally playing this game. But it's not like I haven't tried to fix that.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

… fair enough, I suppose.

I’m beginning to wonder if we’re all Villagers and that this is just a prank because the Elim team imploded.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

(Edit if Merge)

What will probably be one last thing.

1 hour ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

distro discussion:

e!mistborn beagle

v!smoker penguin

v!thug Cham

or 

v!vanilla beagle

e!smoker penguin

v!thug Cham

the game is over

pick your fate

Chameleon, if you really think Beagle would be an E!Mistborn, you can’t 1v1 them D9, not as an even 50-50 Coinflip. 3 out of 8 times they’ll either pull Soother or Rioter or Thug, then they just win instead.

[Pearl Chameleon]

I can beat a mistborn any day of the week

[Chartreuse Penguin]

Well, Beagle hasn’t even logged in in the past 7 hours, so.

I don’t even know.

Chameleon, Beagle. Might as well.

[Oxblood Beagle]

5 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

And I know the last Elim has to be a Smoker.

? Mistborn is still a technical possibility, you can’t know the last elim is a smoker unless you are the last elim 

[Pearl Chameleon]

Penguin

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

The game is over?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Aftermath: Your Last Shot

“One last duel!” Samwise declared. “As the undisputed innocent of us three, I shall oversee your fight to the death. The winner can challenge me if they dare.”

“How can you say that?” Murph demanded. “Beagle’s case has more holes in it than their body will have once I’m done shooting them.”

“Awfully desperate, aren’t you?” Beagle smirked, keeping Samwise between them and Murph’s leveled crossbow. “Always soooo willing to resort to violence. You’ve been killing townsfolk right and left in full view of everyone all this time, then claim it wasn’t your fault they weren’t Spiked. I’m glad to be the one to finally hold you accountable.” 

“Oh? Is it my fault now that I’ve been forced to defend myself? I regret Elephant, but I had no choice but to kill Bartleby and Endsayer. If you’re talking about Sal, that must have been your fault.”

“‘Boo-hoo’ he says, ‘I just had to kill all those townsfolk, those nasty loyal Tyrians forced me into it.’ Not a single Spiked ever condemned you. Sasha even bailed you out on that first day. As for Sal, pathetic. You lead us on a merry chase, wasting irreplaceable lives, only to blame the fake smoker you made up in your head. How much is the New Empire paying you for your siege weaponry? Was it worth betraying everyone you knew?” 

“Bold of you to mention Sasha after you voted for her to live the day after she was shot for the first time. Samwise and I voted for spiked that day, while you condemned Dragon. Plus, nobody defended me on day four. You think Albatross would’ve just let me die if I was his last teammate? You’re floundering. You have no arguments and you know you have no arguments, so you’re just standing there shedding Mistwraith tears while you accuse me of the very atrocities you committed.”

“Yes, yes, quite pretty. Have you been workshopping that speech in the workshop that’s no longer yours? It won’t be enough to convince me. Or Samwise.”

Murph shifted to address Samwise. “Well? Aren’t you convinced? Beagle is only attacking me because they can’t counter my arguments.”

Samwise considered this. “I don’t know. You don’t seem concerned about your imminent death. The only way to resolve this is a duel. Prove your commitment in single combat.”

“Fine!” Murph snapped. “Get out of the way and let me shoot them.”

“Uh-uh-uh,” Samwise chided, drawing two identical glass knives. “We’ll make this fair. One knife each, the last one surviving wins. Hand over your crossbow.”

“You can take it from my corpse,” Murph snarled, pointing the crossbow directly at Samwise’s head. “Where’s your commitment? Why aren’t you afraid of Beagle? Why are you so willing to defer responsibility? Were you the last Spiked all along?”

 “Pull that trigger and I won’t be the one to die,” Samwise threatened.

“Tsk tsk, not a good look for you,” Beagle added. “Your accusations are getting wilder and wilder. Why don’t you just surrender? You had a good run, but we’ve finally caught you.”

“That’s it!” Murph slapped his crossbow into Samwise’s hands and took a knife in trade. “Beagle’s evil, I’m sure of it. Once they’re dead and I’ve saved the town, you’d better thank me. This whole town will finally give me the respect I deserve.”

Murph danced on his feet in an attacking stance, waiting impatiently for Samwise to give him the approval to slice Beagle to ribbons. Beagle, in contrast, casually walked up to Samwise and began to slowly retrieve a knife. As Samwise looked away and began to draw breath to announce the duel’s beginning, Beagle quickly dropped the knife, snatched the fully loaded crossbow away, and fired its deadly missile into Murph’s temple. 

Samwise hopped back, startled, as Murph fell dead to the ground. Before Samwise could react, cries of “Sabotage!” echoed from Tyrian Falls’ eastern wall. Beagle dropped the spent crossbow and sprinted towards the wall. After a few seconds of recalculation, Samwise burned pewter and did the same, hoping to catch up to Beagle before it was too late.

---

Chartreuse Penguin has been killed! They were a Village Smoker.

The game is over! The finale will be posted at Friday, January 26th at 6:00 PM PT/ Saturday, January 27th at 2 a.m. GMT / 1 p.m. AEDT. If you have any final thoughts, actions, or RP, get them in now.

Player List:

Spoiler

Amber Vulture Sasha de Vries, Detective Spiked Thug
Amethyst Scorpion Barney Detective
Azure Mouse Maihler, Meme Artist Village Tineye
Charcoal Hyena Hobbyist Village Smoker
Chartreuse Penguin Murph, Carpenter/Armorer Village Smoker
Coral Swan Ananame, Noble Thief Village Rioter
Cream Tuatara Spiked Rioter
Emerald Falcon Tune, Graffiti Artist Village
Fuchsia Ostrich Endsayer, Endsayer Village
Indigo Weasel Quagmire, 3 "Weasels" in a Trenchcoat Village Smoker
Ivory Dragonfly Bartleby, Witch Doctor Village Mistborn
Magenta Albatross Grandiose Verbosity Spiked
Mauve Crocodile Village
Melon Dingo Barrrrrrrg, Obligator Spiked Seeker
Mint Heron Stray Dog Villager
Onyx Flamingo M, Orator + Researcher Village Tineye
Opal Lion Village Soother
Oxblood Beagle
Pearl Chameleon Samwise, Obligator
Plum Rhinoceros Nalthian Village Soother
Quartz Zebra Zee, Accidentally Spiked Village Coinshot
Saffron Iguana Village Lurcher
Sage Kangaroo Leo, Amnesiac Village
Salmon Meerkat Sal, Loyalist Village
Sapphire Elephant Forgetful Village

Hello everyone! The game is over, and it's voting time! Every year we award three non-Sanderson passes to AG players, and this year will be no different, even though these passes are now given out for free every five games of each type. Please PM us your top three choices in order. The traditional criterion is "best Cosmetic Role adherent", but if you would like to pick based on something else you are free to do so. You can PM us in your GM PM on your anon account or in the PM where you received your login details on your regular account. (Both the original player and pinch-hitter for an account can cast votes if they so desire.) Also, as a reminder to those logging in to their anon account for the first time in a while, please do not authenticate it.

We will not be revealing identities yet. That will happen when the votes are done at which point we will post part 2 of the aftermath, post the master spreadsheet , announce pass winners, and make any other announcements .  We will also try to put up our post mortems at that point; in the meantime, feel free to talk here on your anon account.

Doc Links: 

Dead Doc 

Elim Doc

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Chammm. Whyyyy

[Mint Heron]

Beagle

[Opal Lion]

Beagle

[Chartreuse Penguin]

I think to be clear - still a Coinflip to be determined as to who wins or not. In the meantime, us ghosts get to hang around.

And fortunately, I'm not obligated to haunt Swan's 

Beagle?

[Amethyst Scorpion]

This game is certainly one of the games I have played

I probably will lightly o7 from here on out but it’s not actually related to my ridiculously confident Beagle read lol. Probably more on that in the identity revealed thread. Not like my identity is hidden that much though :D.

Penguin MVP, was obv vil from D1 <3. But Beagle real MVP, was also obv vil from D1  Completely deserves to win this

I had a hard few first cycles and a hard few last cycles but thoroughly enjoyed the middle. Twas a fun game all around.