Anniversary Game 10/Anonymous Game 14: Tyrian Falls Apocalypse

[Oxblood Beagle]

Wait, if Cham is v and a thug then we literally can’t lose (?)

3v1 —> 2v1 —> can’t kill a thug. Will it be 1v1? A coin flip? 

Unless there are two left in which case the game will end after tonight 

[Amethyst Scorpion]

We could lose to a coin flip or e Cham but that’s it

[Chartreuse Penguin]

22 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Wait, if Cham is v and a thug then we literally can’t lose (?)

3v1 —> 2v1 —> can’t kill a thug. Will it be 1v1? A coin flip? 

Unless there are two left in which case the game will end after tonight 

V!Thug!Cham forces the elim into a coinflip, yeah. Unless they really are a Mistborn and can roll Soother or something. But that relies on us believing V!Thug!Cham, something I noted earlier.

Because technically, another option is to exe Cham next turn. They live, they're clear (at least for the next 24 hours). They die, they were an Elim. Solves the slot. But that just guarantees a coinflip-or-death-by-vote-manip if Cham is telling the truth. Not ideal.

Think the math is:

• (E!Cham, Cham exe): 3v1 --> 2v1 --> GG Village
• (V!Cham, Cham exe): 3v1 --> 2v1 --> 2v1 --> 1v1 Coinflip
• (E!Cham, NonCham exe): 3v1 --> 2v1 --> GG Elims
• (V!Cham, NonCham exe): 3v1 --> 2v1 --> 1v1 (Thug Tank) --> 1v1 Coinflip OR 3v1 --> 2v1 --> GG Village

Assuming that there's no surprise Mistborn or any other surprises. A lot of weight riding on that. And, obviously, a lot of weight riding on that OR in the last category.

Edit: also assuming the Elims don't try and NK Cham this turn and fail. But, not too much reason to do that. Also also assuming that it's not a 2v2 right now, but if my math is correct we can do precisely nothing about that.

 

1 hour ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Penguin, what did you mean by my reaction to Ostrich being indicative of Elim mistborn? In your post from last turn 

That's not what I meant. A good amount of Village credit was given to you for your reaction to Ostrich claiming last elim, expressing sympathy for the situation. But in an admittedly rushed (and glitchy, thanks internet) reread, I had the thought that you could be in Ostrich's claimed position, with an Elim team largely falling apart from inactivity or D3 Vulture/Alb suspicions. Because at this point, the last Elim has been in that position.

So, I don't know. Was hoping it was nothing, but now I can't be sure.

I was also trying to see if me slightly-shading Beagle would bring back Kangaroo to change their vote. They did say they suspected Beagle over Scorpion, but had left their vote on Scorpion, which I felt... well, there wasn't time to do anything about what I felt. But it was a bit of a bait, and Kangaroo took it, and the result was all the same.

Edited January 23 by Chartreuse Penguin

[Oxblood Beagle]

Oh I misunderstood your post, I guess that makes sense.

I'm neither of those things though, I'm a regular villager. (<-- Real)

Cham, can you talk more about what you meant by this? Both the part about you dying and how kangaroo would've been implicated by it

I...don't think I want us to gamble on exeing Cham tomorrow. I'm going to be doing the due diligence with regards to everybody tonight, but the chances of e!Cham are still very low in my opinion.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

Not sure how much time I have tomorrow, but I also think I may have an expiration date, so I'll try and make this quick.

If we don't want to hit Chameleon - which I'm still trying to figure out - I think it's Beagle.

Not sure how relevant D4 is, especially around the end. Kind of a mess for everyone. But there's a few things from earlier that give me a little pause.

 

One of them is Picking Up The Pieces, a PM created on D3 by Onyx Flamingo containing them, Oxblood Beagle, and myself. Flamingo claimed Tineye, I claimed having a role (later as Smoker), and Beagle mentioned something peculiar - that they claimed their role to Mouse and might claim it later. They didn't, not in that PM - then claimed Vanilla only when there was the effort to get everyone to claim. That combines with one of Mouse's posts N2:

Specifically "at least" 3 Smokers. Could be a few reasons for that, but between my claim to Mouse, Swan's C1 claim, and Hyena's D2 flip, that's only 3 known there. Something tells me that Weasel didn't claim to Mouse. Maybe Beagle did. Mouse seemed a bit more free with Chameleon's gambit, but I don't think they told anyone I was a Smoker, from what was seen - safer claim than Thug, at least.

There's also the fact Flamingo was the N3 NK, which shut off PMs. Don't think that claim had circulated around either.

 

I don't know. I don't trust. And probably need sleep. But I think between Scorp and Beagle, it's Beagle.

[Oxblood Beagle]

How is that peculiar? He said at least 3 smokers because the entire playerlist hadn't claimed to him.  I claimed my true role to Mouse - vanilla. I didn't end up claiming in that group because I wasn't sure how I independently felt about Flamingo beyond trusting Mouse's read.

Edit:

If you know Mouse at all, you'd know that he wouldn't die with the knowledge of a claimed Smoker of all things. He'd have told multiple people that he trusted as contingency. 

Edit:

Grr Penguin you're ruining my chances of eating the NK I don't want to have to be here for the part that matters.

Edit:

I also just re-checked all my PMs with Mouse and no, he hadn't told me you had claimed Smoker but I don't know why that matters?

Edit:

Okay. It has to be Scorp for PoE reasons. I trust Cham. I reread (skimmed, really) Penguin’s content and I’m not wavering on my v read there either. Lion had a good argument about Scorp’s vote fluidity sticking out on D3 compared to all other Days where their vote was more static. It’s more than that though: their Vulture vote was cast late, they were already at 5 votes:

 

This was basically at EoD too so the it does look like an elim having decided to cut their losses and just bus last minute. And this also explains why Alb was frozen and didn’t end up voting, because the two were likely caught up discussing in the elim doc about whether to commit to the bus or not. Also, shortly before this vote:

Scorp signals here that they’d be fine flashwagoning Kangaroo while not wanting to be the one to initiate it. In the same post they question Lion switching their vote to Vulture in a way that’s obviously meant to call negative attention to Lion’s vote for wonky progression I’m guessing. And it’s worsened by the fact that Scorp had been repping a v read on Lion that entire time. Their progression on everything surrounding Vulture is really inconsistent & hedgy and you can really see their constructed worldview failing to stay true to itself under this high-pressure EoD.

And then there’s this from D4:

Elephant takes precedence over Alb in their ordered PoE for ?? reasons, despite the fact that Alb had put out actively elimmy content whereas Elephant had been supremely inactive. I don’t recall Scorp ever sharing what made Alb more village over Elephant at any point in the game, so this is really odd in hindsight. Not just that, but in the same post they don’t vote either of these two but instead vote Iguana? For science? It doesn’t add up. 

That’s what I’ll leave the thread with. It’s gotta be Scorp, neither Penguin nor Cham make sense here. Another argument in Penguin’s favor that i ironically realized while defending myself from Penguin’s sus is that Penguin would not have NK’d Flamingo at the stage where Flamingo died. Flamingo created a trust PM between themself, me, and Penguin (as Penguin mentioned) and I don’t see them immediately NKing Flamingo when they were more trusting of Penguin than any of the remaining players. It doesn’t make sense when e!Penguin can instead utilise the fact that Flamingo was evidently a bit detached from the thread and could have been manipulated easily as a result. They would’ve kept them around at least a bit longer. 

 

Edited January 23 by Oxblood Beagle

[Pearl Chameleon]

10 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Oh I misunderstood your post, I guess that makes sense.

I'm neither of those things though, I'm a regular villager. (<-- Real)

Cham, can you talk more about what you meant by this? Both the part about you dying and how kangaroo would've been implicated by it

I...don't think I want us to gamble on exeing Cham tomorrow. I'm going to be doing the due diligence with regards to everybody tonight, but the chances of e!Cham are still very low in my opinion.

Some things are not revealed yet, and also exing me is a very, very, very bad idea.

5 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

How is that peculiar? He said at least 3 smokers because the entire playerlist hadn't claimed to him.  I claimed my true role to Mouse - vanilla. I didn't end up claiming in that group because I wasn't sure how I independently felt about Flamingo beyond trusting Mouse's read.

Edit:

If you know Mouse at all, you'd know that he wouldn't die with the knowledge of a claimed Smoker of all things. He'd have told multiple people that he trusted as contingency. 

Edit:

Grr Penguin you're ruining my chances of eating the NK I don't want to have to be here for the part that matters.

Edit:

I also just re-checked all my PMs with Mouse and no, he hadn't told me you had claimed Smoker but I don't know why that matters?

Edit:

Okay. It has to be Scorp for PoE reasons. I trust Cham. I reread (skimmed, really) Penguin’s content and I’m not wavering on my v read there either. Lion had a good argument about Scorp’s vote fluidity sticking out on D3 compared to all other Days where their vote was more static. It’s more than that though: their Vulture vote was cast late, they were already at 5 votes:

 

This was basically at EoD too so the it does look like an elim having decided to cut their losses and just bus last minute. And this also explains why Alb was frozen and didn’t end up voting, because the two were likely caught up discussing in the elim doc about whether to commit to the bus or not. Also, shortly before this vote:

Scorp signals here that they’d be fine flashwagoning Kangaroo while not wanting to be the one to initiate it. In the same post they question Lion switching their vote to Vulture in a way that’s obviously meant to call negative attention to Lion’s vote for wonky progression I’m guessing. And it’s worsened by the fact that Scorp had been repping a v read on Lion that entire time. Their progression on everything surrounding Vulture is really inconsistent & hedgy and you can really see their constructed worldview failing to stay true to itself under this high-pressure EoD.

And then there’s this from D4:

Elephant takes precedence over Alb in their ordered PoE for ?? reasons, despite the fact that Alb had put out actively elimmy content whereas Elephant had been supremely inactive. I don’t recall Scorp ever sharing what made Alb more village over Elephant at any point in the game, so this is really odd in hindsight. Not just that, but in the same post they don’t vote either of these two but instead vote Iguana? For science? It doesn’t add up. 

That’s what I’ll leave the thread with. It’s gotta be Scorp, neither Penguin nor Cham make sense here. Another argument in Penguin’s favor that i ironically realized while defending myself from Penguin’s sus is that Penguin would not have NK’d Flamingo at the stage where Flamingo died. Flamingo created a trust PM between themself, me, and Penguin (as Penguin mentioned) and I don’t see them immediately NKing Flamingo when they were more trusting of Penguin than any of the remaining players. It doesn’t make sense when e!Penguin can instead utilise the fact that Flamingo was evidently a bit detached from the thread and could have been manipulated easily as a result. They would’ve kept them around at least a bit longer. 

 

I agree scorp had some pretty red flags moments.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Losing to e!Beagle after locking them v harder than anyone I’ve ever locked v before by being misexed in the deciding exe of the game would be a fitting end to my SE career 

Not going to case anyone. Because I don’t know. Something something about Beagle’s effort being e indicative something something but mostly it’s just me and three of my strongest village reads left alive so I don’t know. I can repeat why e me never ever plays as I’ve played but when the same can be said of everyone here that will fall flat.

The problem here is that battle lines are drawn. Penguin prefers e Beagle to e me and Cham prefers the opposite. So e Beagle knows exactly who to kill to win and e Penguin probably wins anyway.

9 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

 

And then there’s this from D4:

Elephant takes precedence over Alb in their ordered PoE for ?? reasons, despite the fact that Alb had put out actively elimmy content whereas Elephant had been supremely inactive. I don’t recall Scorp ever sharing what made Alb more village over Elephant at any point in the game, so this is really odd in hindsight. Not just that, but in the same post they don’t vote either of these two but instead vote Iguana? For science? It doesn’t add up. 

Explaining my vulture progression and explaining why that misinterprets basically my entire turn would take too much effort to bother with but this is easy, you’re completely ignoring that I made that list before casing Alb or looking at any of his posts. At the time I was going purely off vibes, of which Ele’s were worse. After they died I took an actual look at Alb. Plus, half of their case was the response to Ostrich which hadn’t happened when I made that list.

I didn’t quote the part you randomly bolded but I don’t see why e!Alb isn’t frozen just because… their teammate is up for the exe…? Like? Is that question not already answered?

With how fluid the votes were and based on my understanding of the trains at the time, basically calling my Vulture vote useless is simply wrong. In my mind, at least, I was solidifying that option over all others. My vote was on the side train before that. I swung it past the point of no return.

I wish I could show my Zebra PM where I death pushed the Vulture shot. Or actually I wish I could show my Vulture PM lol

Oh yeah and the for science was obviously a joke used to excuse my indulgence of my ig paranoia

bad case obv elim /jk

NO MERGE

one day I’ll understand

edit: oh thanks mods

Edited January 23 by Amethyst Scorpion

[Chartreuse Penguin]

3 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

The problem here is that battle lines are drawn. Penguin prefers e Beagle to e me and Cham prefers the opposite. So e Beagle knows exactly who to kill to win and e Penguin probably wins anyway.

Even if little productive thinking is possible at this point, that's not really the ideal way to do this. 

For one thing, V!Thug!Cham throws everything for a loop. Any Elim can't escape the coinflip at this point, except E!Cham, and we can theoretically answer that if we guarantee a coinflip D9.

For another thing, having battle lines and expected kills is a big way to mess with the exe. For example, if it's looking like a big D8 Thunderdome between Beagle and Scorpion, then the "best" kill for either of you, or for Cham, would be to NK me. But even without a Lurcher, there's a bit of a question there, where the only scenario where NK Penguin isn't ideal would be the E!Penguin scenario. Thus, could be decently possible for E!Beagle/Scorpion to kill V!Scorpion/Beagle and push a Penguin exe to Cham on D8 instead.

Or something. 

Bah. I need time to think and I don't have time nor do I have think. 

[Pearl Chameleon]

Whoever shall die, those who remain shall be the subject of a closer investigation.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Well yeah I dunno. Also trying to stoke IKYKs a bit.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

Aaaaaand now I’m leaning towards an E!Scorp world. Trying to get what I can out of the mess of D1.

o7

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

The night is over!

[Elandera]

Day Eight: The Sting of Forgetting

Somewhere out in the mists, agents of the enemy remained. Whether they were of the New Empire or Spiked, Oleinda wasn’t sure. She only knew that too few of their core resistance remained. She checked the charts, reviewing the available allomancers.

At least there were recruits, possibly even some with undiscovered allomancy still. That was unlikely, though. After everything the people of Tyrian Falls had endured—especially the skaa—if any of them held allomantic potential, surely they would have been broken by now.
What else would they have to experience to unlock their skills?

Oleinda sighed, pushing away from the desk to stand in the door and listen to the night, dreading the inevitable sounds of death she knew would come. After all, they had been heard across Tyrian Falls every night for too long.

---

Barney, clutching his magnifying glass, walked through the mists that had settled into the streets. He couldn’t remember if that was a normal occurrence, but no one else seemed bothered by them. So he continued following the trail. Searching for…

He wasn’t certain, actually. But he was confident he would know when he found it. Deep in his gut—which he’d learned to trust, even when he couldn’t trust his mind—he knew he’d find whatever it was soon.

Something caught his eye through the magnifying glass. A slight change in color on the cobblestones. A splash of a reddish-brown amid the gray ash.

Barney approached carefully, then knelt down, peering at the spot through the glass.

Blood. Dried blood, specifically. A tiny trail of it leading further into the mists. He wasn’t sure how, but he could read the direction of that trail. Slight deviations in how the blood—now at least a day old—had splashed based on the motion of its carrier. Was it someone who was injured, running from an attack? Or perhaps the attacker who’d gotten too much evidence on themselves as they fled a crime scene?
He looked up and found he was near the barracks where Lion had been killed the night before. Perhaps this was a clue to finding the killer.

Barney had to know.

He followed the trail, careful not to disturb any of the evidence. The spatters became thinner, more spread out, until he was almost certain he’d lost the trail entirely. Then he spotted a small smear on the corner of a building. Hardly perceptible to anyone without a magnifying glass. He stood a little taller, proud of his remembering to keep that tool on hand.

Around the corner, Barney found a small trap door which also showed tiny traces of dried blood. Excitement rushed through him. He’d done it. He’d found it! The lair of the Spiked! Certainly this had to be the place and thing he’d been detecting this whole time.

Without even a moment's hesitation, Barney pulled open the hatch. Darkness awaited below, and he gladly entered. It was no more intimidating than the mists, after all.

When he got to the bottom of the ladder, he turned and ran into something.

No, someone.

He’d found the Spiked!

And forgotten that finding the Spiked was a risk of its own. An obsidian axe slammed into his chest, and the magnifying glass that he treasured fell to the floor and shattered.

---

Amethyst Scorpion has been killed! They were a Villager.

Day Eight has begun! The turn will end on Thursday, January 25th at 6:00 PM PT/ Friday, January 26th at 2 a.m. GMT / 1 p.m. AEDT.

Player List:

Spoiler

Amber Vulture Sasha de Vries, Detective Spiked Thug
Amethyst Scorpion Barney Detective
Azure Mouse Maihler, Meme Artist Village Tineye
Charcoal Hyena Hobbyist Village Smoker
Chartreuse Penguin Murph, Carpenter/Armorer
Coral Swan Ananame, Noble Thief Village Rioter
Cream Tuatara Spiked Rioter
Emerald Falcon Tune, Graffiti Artist Village
Fuchsia Ostrich Endsayer, Endsayer Village
Indigo Weasel Quagmire, 3 "Weasels" in a Trenchcoat Village Smoker
Ivory Dragonfly Bartleby, Witch Doctor Village Mistborn
Magenta Albatross Grandiose Verbosity Spiked
Mauve Crocodile Village
Melon Dingo Barrrrrrrg, Obligator Spiked Seeker
Mint Heron Stray Dog Villager
Onyx Flamingo M, Orator + Researcher Village Tineye
Opal Lion Village Soother
Oxblood Beagle
Pearl Chameleon Samwise, Obligator
Plum Rhinoceros Nalthian Village Soother
Quartz Zebra Zee, Accidentally Spiked Village Coinshot
Saffron Iguana Village Lurcher
Sage Kangaroo Leo, Amnesiac Village 
Salmon Meerkat Sal, Loyalist Village
Sapphire Elephant Forgetful Village

PMs are closed!

Edited January 24 by Elandera

[Chartreuse Penguin]

I’m alive. Fantastic.

Really thought PMs were going to open and the real fun to begin, but no, now it’s just the game.

Penguin, Beagle, or Chameleon?

[Chartreuse Penguin]

(Edit, in case this merges)

… alright, I’ll start then. Beagle.

[Oxblood Beagle]

Lol this game

Edit:

Why did you think PMs would be open

[Chartreuse Penguin]

7 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Lol this game

Edit:

Why did you think PMs would be open

Mistborn.

Seems like it would have fit our luck so far.

[Oxblood Beagle]

Okay.

 

Quote

Some things are not revealed yet, and also exing me is a very, very, very bad idea.

@Pearl Chameleon Now's the time to reveal whatever it is you haven't revealed. Where's your head at now, given Scorp's flip?

@Chartreuse Penguin Why didn't you consider Scorp at all yesterday?

[Chartreuse Penguin]

1 hour ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

@Chartreuse Penguin Why didn't you consider Scorp at all yesterday?

I did. Hence that last post.

I just didn't want to say so, because of the whole battle-lines-influencing-NK-thing. But I was looking at things. Notably - Scorpion managed to rather skillfully (or luckily, I suppose) avoid interacting nearly at all with Vulture or Albatross on D1, despite posting in close proximity to them. You and Cham both did. Not entirely sure what the meta is with that, but considering how distant the Elim team has been / has been forced to be, it was giving me some E!Scorp points.

But that's out the window, obviously.

[Oxblood Beagle]

If you didn’t want to say so, why make that last post? If you were village and got NK’d, what was the point of leaving that post without an attached explanation? Because that defeats the purpose of avoiding NK influence or whatever and right now it looks like intentionally planted IKYK to me. 

I’ve been thinking about both e!Cham and e!Penguin worlds, and e!Cham had a sure fire path to victory if they had killed Penguin overnight, because I was clearly tunnelling Scorp and obviously would have voted him today while Penguin was the only one considering “testing” Cham’s thug claim yesterday. Neither Scorp or myself ever agreed to that, so killing Penguin is 100% always what Cham does. It doesn’t matter if Scorp wasn’t sure on v!Cham because I had clearly been repping that read and in 2v1 you need 2 votes to kill. NKing elsewhere isn’t worth throwing away the assured win, I don’t think.

@Pearl Chameleon I still want to know what you’re thinking. 

I guess thinking about it now it makes sense that I haven’t been kept alive all these days - because I’ve been hard defending Penguin all game. My bad.

More to come later as I’m gathering my thoughts going over the game again, but I’m around 70% convinced right now. 

[Oxblood Beagle]

Edit:

And we should’ve realised this sooner but when one player is consistently coming up as a wagon throughout the game, it’s usually just an elim. Penguin was a major wagon D1, a major wagon D4, and cropped up during multiple other points in the game. This should’ve been a red flag but these things often don’t make themselves obvious until this late in the game unfortunately. 

Day 4 is very telling specifically because before Ostrich’s gambit, Albatross was the leading wagon and Penguin was the second most popular contender for the vote there, but Albatross never touched the Penguin wagon and instead tried to vote Lion. Why wouldn’t Alb self pres on v!Penguin? There’s no reason for them to not do that. In a gamestate with only 2 elims left, not self pressing is nuts. The only reason you wouldn’t do that is if the self pres option is your partner. Alb wasn’t on during the exact eod time as announced, so them not voting Penguin is big. 

Edit:

And of course there’s the fact that Penguin is literally a claimed Smoker, & responsible for Meerkat. Occam’s Razor. 

Edited January 24 by Oxblood Beagle
Autocorrect

[Pearl Chameleon]

Case for e!beagle thus far:

V credit from ostrich gambit severely overplayed.

 

Case for e!penguin thus far:

Someone smoked salmon and lied about it. There is one smoker. But why would v!penguin lie? There was no harm in claiming that v!penguin!smoker smoked Meerkat, but it was an opportunistic moment for e!smoker! penguin. 

Potentially pushing for e!scorp, killing him, in order to get the slight v cred over beagle.

 

This is quite brief and will be expanded on.

 

[Chartreuse Penguin]

4 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

If you didn’t want to say so, why make that last post? If you were village and got NK’d, what was the point of leaving that post without an attached explanation? Because that defeats the purpose of avoiding NK influence or whatever and right now it looks like intentionally planted IKYK to me. 

If I'm Village and got NK'd, the point of leaving that post was to not have E!Scorp or E!Cham run off on my confirmed-good analysis to exe V!You. Because that seems to have been a pattern of how things have gone, and this cycle is one where people absolutely need to think.

And the neat thing is, it did avoid NK influence. Because I'm a Villager, and both of you two weren't even online. That was kinda the point of doing it 5 minutes before rollover.

But also, because it doesn't matter, something I'm getting into below.

4 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

I’ve been thinking about both e!Cham and e!Penguin worlds, and e!Cham had a sure fire path to victory if they had killed Penguin overnight, because I was clearly tunnelling Scorp and obviously would have voted him today while Penguin was the only one considering “testing” Cham’s thug claim yesterday. Neither Scorp or myself ever agreed to that, so killing Penguin is 100% always what Cham does. It doesn’t matter if Scorp wasn’t sure on v!Cham because I had clearly been repping that read and in 2v1 you need 2 votes to kill. NKing elsewhere isn’t worth throwing away the assured win, I don’t think.

Sure, e!Cham could have killed me and let v!Beagle tunnel on Scorp... or they could have killed Scorp and let Beagle tunnel on me. You know. What's currently happening.

Because nothing about reads and choices from N7 matters. For the Elim, presumably nothing can change things with the exe patterns that are following, because no way is any Villager hiding a Coinshot or Soother. For the Village, the NK cuts each Villager's PoE by a third. It's a binary choice now. And for Cham, the choice is pretty much a non-choice, because V!Thug!Cham gets to Coinflip on D9 with whoever's left.

Going to make another post on that math at some point, because it's around but a bit annoying to wrangle.

4 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Edit:

And we should’ve realised this sooner but when one player is consistently coming up as a wagon throughout the game, it’s usually just an elim. Penguin was a major wagon D1, a major wagon D4, and cropped up during multiple other points in the game. This should’ve been a red flag but these things often don’t make themselves obvious until this late in the game unfortunately. 

Day 4 is very telling specifically because before Ostrich’s gambit, Albatross was the leading wagon and Penguin was the second most popular contender for the vote there, but Albatross never touched the Penguin wagon and instead tried to vote Lion. Why wouldn’t Alb self pres on v!Penguin? There’s no reason for them to not do that. In a gamestate with only 2 elims left, not self pressing is nuts. The only reason you wouldn’t do that is if the self pres option is your partner. Alb wasn’t on during the exact eod time as announced, so them not voting Penguin is big. 

Edit:

And of course there’s the fact that Penguin is literally a claimed Smoker, & responsible for Meerkat. Occam’s Razor. 

This doesn't sound "70%" convinced, not gonna lie.

When did I get pushed? D1, where the elims clearly had no interest in the EoD? D3, where Chameleon lied about being a Mistborn and then tunneled on me for not believing it? D4, where that same Chameleon gambit was just continuing? D4 again, where Ostrich lied about being an Elim and then tunneled on me for... I barely even know?

Yeah, it's a lot of trains. None of them were for good reasons. Quantity doesn't translate to quality.

As for Albatross - they voted on Lion, at this point, here:

Albatross wasn't the leading wagon. Albatross wasn't even close. They had one vote, from you, a post or two earlier. I was in the lead by 4-ish, then the actual runner-up was Iguana with 3. (Plus, one of the main reasons I was getting pushed was all the vote manip on me D1. Hint: there wasn't any vote manip on me D1.)

They came back a few times, but never changed their vote - even when I was in the lead versus Ostrich, and they pointedly posted a vote count without moving their vote. Didn't take the opportunity to save me, didn't take the opportunity to bus me. Voting Ostrich could have even helped them out, but at that point Ostrich was still claimed Elim and an exe on Alb was highly unlikely. Because I'm a Villager, and so Albatross didn't actually have a stake in which Villager got exed.

Yeah. Actively claimed Smoker. Early claimed Smoker. Has-no-reason-to-lie-about-Smoking Smoker. What would that have gotten me, exeing Meerkat before Kangaroo? If the Village decided to go all Occam's Razor from the start, lying just sticks my neck out farther.

I'm also noticing a lot of... decisiveness, here. Still 70%?

[Pearl Chameleon]

Penguin

Reviewing beagle content. Ocram's razor says to kill penguin because there is a liar and a smoker among us and well, there's certainly one smoker claimed already.