Anniversary Game 8 / AN11: Back to Beginnings

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

38 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

so i feel inclined to read alb and rhino as village in light of a spiked coinshot

cant seem them wasting a kill this far in on an mostly inactive rhino for the sake of a wgg

and if you were setting up a wgg on alb then id have thunk youd use the spiked kill not the coinshot who at the time could well have been village

Dude, I can't even make optimal guesses anymore, this elim team has done so many unconventional things >>

[Amethyst Scorpion]

1 hour ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Yes…So I guess the entire elim team knows rip

Might as well tell everyone then.

[Salmon Meerkat]

5 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

@Salmon Meerkat did Beagle know anything that's not public knowledge?

Absolutely, unfortunately, as she was part of the N3 PM where I put her and the Mistborn and Vulture in contact with her, and have been shielding her from further attention under the presumption that Coinshot was softcleared Village due to the Ocho doubletap. Recently, due to the number of Lurchers and Thugs discovered, both Ostrich and I began to have doubts, and argued in PMs about it. I agreed with him that the de facto roleclear presumption no longer held and Beagle had to stand or fall by her own actions, and created a bunch of PM groups designed to watch her because the KGB is a circle of accountability.

Here's the info so everyone is on the same page:

C3

• Beagle contacts me after the gambit is revealed and claims to be a Coinshot
• I 180 on her and stop pressuring her in thread and shield her from it
• Claim the Coinshot claimed to me on C2 in case Spiked are watching
• As both Swan and Vulture consent, Beagle makes contact with them in an aptly named AG4 PM (Fifth must be laughing his arse off)
• Flamingo panics about the lynch and PMs me; I agree neither of us trust each other but as she doesn't want to die and I want Gorilla dead, our interests are aligned. She claims regular Villager when I ask her if she can do anything about the votes.
• Beagle attacks Hyena.

C4

• Dragonfly claims Rioter to me and agrees to Riot to Hyena or vote Hyena in the worst case (Dragonfly also claims the D3 Riot to me, which explains why the action checks out)
• Swan scans Penguin as a Village Thug and Penguin is notified
• I PM Zebra about his sudden Hyena vote and discover he is another Lurcher
• Beagle attacks Falcon

C5

• Ostrich claims Regular
• Beagle is given a selection of targets, with Rhino being primary for Rhino's vote on Falcon. Beagle flips a coin and hits Rhino.
• Zebra agrees to Lurch me
• Beagle is told I am completely exposed, that the Lurcher is Lurching a high-value target from the protect list, and that I expect to die.

Sorry guys. I will be even more paranoid next time to safeguard your personal data and mine. Full Gamma experience. You have been warned >:(

Prelimary Thoughts:

• I feel as though Beagle's willingness to hit Rhino might mean they're not E/E or Rhino is a Mistborn who happened to rand Pewter, unless we speculate they had a team Lurcher who can't be Zebra. Beagle had an easy out because she had a target selection and could just have easily not gone with Rhino.
   
• If the Elim team had a Coinshot, they might be willing to forgo their NK for Zebra to earn my trust, under the presumption that Beagle's Coinshoot will make up for the lost kill. I'd say: Zebra/Beagle/Rhino not E/E/E. Open to opinions on whether this softclears Zebra as Zebra's voting patterns have recently been worrisome  
   
• @Quartz Zebra - My advice would be to get some self-lurching in. If you're a Villager, you're no use to the Village dead. I'm likely a confirmed kill tonight, but you are absolutely a kill target if Village so I would advise you to think through when you want to self-lurch due to the lurching restrictions. I'd advise getting in contact with Ostrich or Penguin - Ostrich helped find three Spiked, and Penguin was scanned Village Thug by Swan before he died, meaning Penguin is Confirmed Good. Good luck, and I'm sorry :/
   
• Flamingo is another questionmark - when given a choice between Ostrich or Flamingo as Swan's replacement, Beagle opted for Flamingo (this was C5), which in my view is both counterintuitive and less warranted. I will relook Flamingo when I have the time.
   
• If Heron/Beagle are E/E, feels like Heron would have picked a different target to splinter trains D5. Losing Beagle would have hurt them more than losing Cham. Tentative V on Heron for that, though I note a single vote isn't very much commitment and could just as easily been distancing. Matters in this context because we should relook the Rhino train before I went "hey guys what the hell."
   
• Dislike Alb's non-commitalness. Has not made a single defining vote for a lynch IMO and it feels painful to village-read on the basis of other's reactions, rather than what he has done.
   
• @Melon Dingo, @Sapphire Elephant, and @Plum Rhinoceros need pressure. I'm sorry, but if you're just going to keep telling us you're sorry but refusing to make any effort at all right now, you're not going to be a help at lylo either. I asked you one simple question N5 - who did you most suspect. It's an easy question. It's been five and a half cycles into the game. You should not have difficulty answering this. I'm not asking for a reads list. I'm asking for a single suspect. @Magenta Albatross, feel free to get off that fence and join them here  

Edited to add: @Azure Mouse - you too. And @Ivory Dragonfly - OH HELL EVERYONE JUST DO THIS. ONE TOP SUSPECT GO.

Edited to add 2:

Beagle was down for hitting Rhino until we later started to diversify the field. So tentative V on Rhino - we could speculate that a teammate helped Lurch Rhino, but then who sent in the kill order? Because Rhino didn't log in at all N5. So this requires four Elims, which in my view, is really strong with a Coinshot team. Only exception I can think of involves Rhino being an Evil Mistborn who randed Pewter.

Beagle also was okay with hitting Alb in theory but dithered a lot about it. Make of it what you will. I might favour an Alb lynch more than Flamingo or Heron at this point. 2 Lurchers and 3 Thugs aren't that bad a balance for E!Coinshot either, which would make most vote manip (I hesitate to say all) Village.

Thoughts on Elim team composition now, guys?

Axl was supposed to have Rioted Heron's vote, which means that Heron either lied, or was Smoked. Take your pick. Maybe Axl is a Soother?  

Edited January 21, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Ivory Dragonfly]

without doing further reading id say mouse is my top suspect because of this post
felt odd to me the thought about there being elim coinshots when no one else seemed to be talking about them for most of the game
but there might well not be anything to that

overall figuring that alb rhino penguin meerkat scorp axolotl ostrich are village

unsure about heron or zebra 
  more likely to think zebra village

making mouse dingo flamingo elephant the candidates for spiked

 

13 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

C4

• Dragonfly claims Rioter to me and agrees to Riot to Hyena or vote Hyena in the worst case (Dragonfly also claims the D3 Riot to me, which explains why the action checks out)

can confirm
didnt end up needing to riot the hyena vote as there was consensus in thread but if it was gonna be close tied vote afair was gonna riot to try and ensure the hyena vote

and day three i rioted chameleon on to gorilla which if you look back at that vote tally alligns with axolotls claimed actions too

 

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

6 hours ago, Violet Axolotl said:

Yeah I Rioted Heron's vote onto Beagle, which means that Heron is a Smoker or was smoked by one.

57 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Axl was supposed to have Rioted Heron's vote, which means that Heron either lied, or was Smoked. Take your pick. Maybe Axl is a Soother?  

Didn't Heron already claim to be a Smoker?

[Salmon Meerkat]

30 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Didn't Heron already claim to be a Smoker?

If I were Spiked and had a Smoker, it'd be tempting to try to see if I could force a mislynch or turn attention to Heron by Smoking Heron in case a Village Rioter checked. 

It's still a possibility. It's low effort trolling and doesn't affect the Night Kill and there are no Seekers so what does it matter? 

Edited to add:

Okay guys, let's add extra homework.

Give me your Elim team comp guesses - with players and roles. Specifically, think about who works with whom - we have Hyena/Cham/Beagle/Gorilla so far. Who works on that team?

Hyena/Cham/Beagle/Gorilla/Axl/Rhino? Etc.

Elims should have more difficulty doing this and I want us to get some analysis in the Night while I'm still alive. I'll work on my thoughts myself.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

3 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Give me your Elim team comp guesses - with players and roles. Specifically, think about who works with whom - we have Hyena/Cham/Beagle/Gorilla so far. Who works on that team?

I'mma PoE this. Remaining players - [Scorpion, Mouse, Penguin, Ostrich, Dragonfly, Albatross, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Rhino, Zebra, Meerkat, Elephant, Axolotl] (14)

Removing 100% or close to 100% village - 
[Scorpion, Mouse, Penguin, Ostrich, Dragonfly, Albatross, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Rhino, Zebra, Meerkat, Elephant, Axolotl] (11)

Removing Lurchers and Thugs - [Scorpion, Mouse, Penguin, Ostrich, Dragonfly, Albatross, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Rhino, Zebra, Meerkat, Elephant, Axolotl] (8)

This is where it gets a little tough to eliminate people, I'll remove struckthrough names for convenience - 
[Scorpion, Mouse, Dragonfly, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Elephant, Axolotl] (8)

Removing Scorpion because of other efforts to protect Gorilla in C1, it's counter-productive to the elim teams effort to bus a teammate in D1.
Removing Axolotl because they kept bringing up LG79 Sart lynch as a proof to vote out Chameleon and Cham flipped village, giving us -
[Scorpion, Mouse, Dragonfly, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Elephant, Axolotl] (6)

I'm 100% sure our final elims are in the Final Eight and about 90% sure they are in Final Six.

Going further, I'm going to remove Dragonfly because of their vote vote to tip the Beagle to ahead of others last cycle. After 3 consecutive cycles elim death, elims would want to protect their most important asset role-wise. Unless it's an attempt to deepwolf, there's no need for a semi-active elim to vote on Beagle at that point in time.
Also removing Dingo due to complete non-intervention policy when elims are in danger, we have our Final Four - [Mouse, Heron, Flamingo, Elephant] (4)

 IF we have to eliminate further, I'd remove Elephant citing they are too inactive to be an elim, we get a tidy set of - [Mouse, Flamingo, Heron]

Flamingo had bad D1-D2, good D3-D4, unsure what to make of their D5 [could be bus], bad D6 ugh. 

Heron's D6 and as a result, D5 look very confusing. 

Mouse just  sieves through the PoE and the only hint that they could be village is their 3rd vote on Cham during D3.

Not so confident in the Final Three, but quite confident with Final Six. 

[Onyx Flamingo]

38 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Flamingo had bad D1-D2, good D3-D4, unsure what to make of their D5 [could be bus], bad D6 ugh. 

Hold on, let me get this right

You think I’m an elim after I voted to help execute four elims in a row.

Your assumption is that Heron and I are on a team. If heron/beagle/me were e/e/e, would it not have been smarter for me to vote on heron and not beagle, because beagle was a coinshot? Meerkat obviously thought heron was a good idea for a vote, it wouldn’t have been hard to try and push people onto them.

I was suspicious of Rhino. I was also suspicious of alb. I thought there were too many thugs and I didn’t think that the coinshot was an elim because it felt too powerful. I thought it was more likely the elims had thugs. I’ve been consistently suspicious of alb since their survival, and thus that suspicion was easily transferred to rhino for the same reasons. How is my D6 bad, given that context? I’ve been consistent, even meerkat acknowledged that.

And you know what, I’ll admit it, I didn’t feel good about my beagle vote. Hindsight is 20/20, so I’m glad I voted on them in the end, but I felt weird about it right up until the end because I didn’t have any major suspicion on them. Because guess what, a lot of other people’s suspicion came from the context of pm trust groups that many of us have not been privy too. I changed my vote to beagle off rhino because I felt bullied into doing so by people who have far more information than me. 

I’m tired.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

17 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

You think I’m an elim after I voted to help execute four elims in a row.

Alright, let me try to explain my point of view. Granted, I'll give you D3-D4. Only re-thought D5 with paranoia because I felt your D6 was bad. How was D6 bad to me? 

Okay see, last cycle when it was 2-2 [Rhino-Beagle] and that's when Heron voted for Rhino to make it 3-2 and then you followed it up to make it 4-2. De-escalating a bit here, please try to see how it looks for me here. It looks like elims' last ditch effort to save their most important way to a win, right? This sequence is what seemed suspicious to me. And because I mentioned that, you reacted to it, and now I want to reconsider, which is good. As I said, I'm not that confident of my Final Three. I'm sorry that you felt excluded :/  The case for Beagle was, we tried, to always take her posts' merit and that was what was discussed in group PMs as well. The case we made for her was all from her posts and circumstances surrounding her. The only info we had extra [albeit a huge thing ] was the knowledge that she was the Coinshot. 

Could you take a shot at your guess about the rest of the elim team members?

[Onyx Flamingo]

1 minute ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

was the knowledge that she was the Coinshot.

Which completely changes things, given that knowledge about who the coinshot was, who was directing her kills, and who she had hit willingly absolutely switches how people read her. If I had known that Beagle was ready and willing to hit Rhino, I probably would’ve felt a lot less suspicious of Rhino because the possibility of an elim coinshot was getting more and more prominent with each minute.

I think we only have one or two left, and I think one of them is Heron because of their D6. As for the other one, I think it’s one of the inactives. I’m talking like elephant or something, I think we have someone hiding in there. I don’t know how I feel about mouse.

[Salmon Meerkat]

5 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Give me your Elim team comp guesses - with players and roles. Specifically, think about who works with whom - we have Hyena/Cham/Beagle/Gorilla so far. Who works on that team?

Current State of kel's Reads:

JEDI MASTER [=STRONG VILLAGE]

Spoiler

• Penguin

I have plenty of reasons: early Hyena nudge, PM interaction, Cham and Beagle pushes. But the strongest reason in a game like this is I am the last surviving witness and I will witness for her: Swan, who has flipped Village, scanned her as a Village Thug N3. She is Village. There is no doubt here.

• Ostrich

Behind early Hyena push, first to notice the ISO asymmetry between Iguana and Gorilla, Hyena tried to make him the CW, behind the Cham and Beagle pushes as well, and backed the Gorilla pushes. In my view, Beagle as a trusted Coinshot was a powerful Elim asset and the fact Ostrich and I argued long and hard and began to sift out Beagle's true alignment is a powerful argument for his being none other than a Villager.

• Zebra

This one is a provisional roleclear. Zebra saved me last Night with a successful Lurch. This softclears him. The only world in which Zebra is not a Lurcher is one in which he is a lying Mistborn, and thus most likely Evil. But prima facie, we know that because the Spiked Coinshot exists, there must be at least two Village Lurchers. One Village Lurcher is too fragile. If they die or go inactive, the Village is screwed. So here's my line of thought: if Zebra isn't a Village Lurcher (i.e. is an Evil Lurcher, or an Evil Mistborn, or has an Evil Lurcher/Mistborn teammate), then there's a second Village Lurcher out there. Then the second Village Lurcher should claim, because if they do, we have a 50-50 chance of lynching an Elim. That's insanely good odds. Until then, provisional strong Village read on Zebra.

JEDI KNIGHT [=MODERATE VILLAGE]

Spoiler

• Axl

Feeling a bit more confident in Axl now due to Axl keeping Cham in the spotlight, and vote-manipping to test Heron (I think Heron is also Evil), and voting on Heron, and shifting a vote to Beagle or trying to. Feel that I take Ostrich's point as well - given how fiercely protective of each other the Elim team was D1, it seems reasonable to me that Axl's vote would run against what the Spiked wanted. There were too many vote movements opposing Gorilla trains - I think it reasonable to find Axl Village in that light. Also suspected Beagle in PMs. A separate point in favour of Axl but a weak point is my thought that Village has all if not the lion's share of vote manip - this distro grants the Elim team Night dominance with two kills, so giving the Village a slight edge with the lynch (3 vote manipulators), would be a nice way to bookend that.

• Scorpion

Similar point as Axl - went very last minute on the Gorilla train and it feels to me like a very risky move for an Elim (reassess if we have cleared lower tiers and can't find Elims) in such a protective D1 team, especially if I'm correct that their only vote manip capacities come from Mistborn. Scop in particular feels like she's inhabiting her Village meta (FYI I lied about that with Beagle to cover for her) - but Village!Scorp tends to be more free about point engagement so I guess there's that too.

PADAWAN [=LIGHT VILLAGE]

Spoiler

• Alb

I feel like there's no point in wasting a N1 Coinshot kill on Alb if he were a Thug. The only world in which I can see the Spiked spending a Coinshot kill on Alb is if he were Mistborn who happened to rand Petwer N1. This isn't impossible, but this does mean we still have one Tineye message unaccounted for N1. And spending that Coinshot kill still seems a bit profligate - it's not impossible Alb would draw attention, or even lynch attention for his vote tying Iguana/Gorilla/Crocodile. D1 voting analysis hits players who stand out. Again, they could be relying on known, historical reluctance to lynch Thugs/kill survivors, but it seems an odd trade. I'm back to considering Alb's responses to my gambit to be fairly classic Village (and a sharp contrast to both Beagle's and Cham's reluctance) although I really wish he would get off that fence.

• Flamingo

Go back and forth about Flamingo. Flamingo hasn't had the best D1-D2, but she was second voter on Gorilla, and in my view, that's really important considering the amount of effort the Spiked put into not losing Gorilla. I feel like Hyena did in fact try to make her a CW and more importantly - suppose we accept the point of the Evil Coinshot hypothesis, that the Spiked had intended to kill both Ocho and Ostrich, but one order got mixed up. There is no strategic benefit in killing Ocho if Flamingo is Evil, I don't think. It's possible Hyena was trying a double-bluff, but killing the CW is normally more a Village move - which makes sense if your Coinshot was trying to pass off as a Villager. Otherwise, killing Ocho just makes two CWs flip Village and makes people wonder about trying for Flamingo, a move which Hyena himself encouraged.

• Ivory Dragonfly

Has been generally thinky in PMs and created a Beagle-Heron tie and didn't withdraw, 9 PMs worth of pre-rollover anxiety about securing Beagle lynch against possible Elim voteswing Heron-side. Claimed Rioter when no reason to - E!Dragonfly, especially if the team has a Smoker, could quietly Riot from nonvoting or just create an imperceptible voteswing. We never see this happening. I also find it lightly plausible that the Village has vote manip advantage, so provisional light Village read.

INITIATE [=NULL+]

Spoiler

• Melon Dingo

Apathy clear if we think it was important for the Spiked to save Beagle but Dingo, as usual, did nothing.

• Sapphire Elephant

Another apathy clear for similar reasons to Dingo. Didn't get the votecount right, either.

• Plum Rhino

Beagle seemed a bit too willing to hit Rhino when she could have simply redirected/picked another target. Rhino can't have self-Lurched as they didn't log in all N5, and since Beagle had free choice of targets, deliberately picking Rhino so a teammate could Lurch Rhino gives us this problem: Beagle sends in the Coinshot kill, teammate Lurches Rhino, Rhino never logs in. So who sends in the kill? Presumably, a fourth teammate. This scenario commits us to a seven-member Spiked team with a Coinshot, which seems far too large to be acceptable in a distro. So lean Village on Rhino too.

NERF-HERDER [=NULL]

Spoiler

Not populated.

ACOLYTE [=NULL-]

Spoiler

• Azure Mouse

Mouse had a helpful third vote on Cham D5, but I still dislike their D2 vote on Iguana alongside Hyena and Cham. I acknowledge that Mouse can't account for the actions of their predecessor Mouse 1.0, but it's still a vote on a wagon the Elims were invested in. I also acknowledge that Mouse 2.0 noted that Cham had tried to solicit Mouse to vote on Iguana, which is why this is a lean negative. A note in Mouse's favour is that Mouse didn't vote on any of the Beagle CWs D6, which in my view, is a cycle that the Elims should have been more invested in, due to Beagle's strategic importance to the Spiked. I agree with Dragonfly's point that Mouse's thoughts on an Evil Coinshot look both prescient and odd in the context of N4, so this could very well be TMI. Evil Coinshot kills are not numerically distinguishable from Village Coinshot kills - we have to appeal to victimology to distinguish them.

APPRENTICE [=LIGHT EVIL]

Spoiler

Also not populated right now.

SITH LORD [=MODERATE EVIL]

Spoiler

• Mint Heron

Surprise! In short: Mint Heron is the king of the side-train, which looks a lot like splinter train tactics. He votes Axl alongside Flamingo D1, at a point where Gorilla is three votes in the lead, Scorp still has one vote on Cham, and there are two votes on Charcoal Hyena. This looks a lot like an attempt to spread the votes and try to entice Villagers onto more palatable (to the Spiked) trains, as well as to avoid clumping up too much with teammates. In my view, Heron seems to synch up very well with Hyena's subsequent pushes: he goes onto Flamingo D2, and Hyena makes another Flamingo push D3 for CW; he @s Ostrich D3, and then Hyena tries to make Ostrich the D4 CW. I think there's a certain strategic unity in their strain of thought there that makes me distinctly uncomfortable.

C4 Heron goes MIA because he checks out when there are confirmed Elims - which seems weird to me because of course we felt convinced of the Hyena and Falcon arguments, but was everyone? So convinced before Hyena began openwolfing? Even with Falcon defending herself and the logical possibility Falcon was a Villager scanned by Hyena which everyone acknowledged? 

D5 Heron votes on Beagle. I don't consider that exculpatory because it's a one-off vote that doesn't have much bite to it, and comes at a time when all vote trains are one-vote trains, e.g. on Cham. Heron just dashes off a one-liner about Beagle being obviously Evil - there's not much commitment to that vote and it feels more like a poke or distancing vote than a vote meant to kill. The oddity of an Elim voting for another Elim is easily explained if you recall that: as of C5, Beagle still believed herself to be safe due to having two Villagers who would commit to diverting the lynch if it came for her. For that reason, Heron has no issue flagging Beagle half-heartedly - it looks good, is performative, and most importantly, Beagle would never be in real danger anyway. Two Villagers would make sure of it.

D6 - the one, telling cycle where Beagle comes under pressure, Heron drops a performative post about being a very bad Villager (again, I direct you to LG82, which was my worst game in my recent play history...) and at the end of that, proceeds to vote against his suspicions of Beagle and onto Rhino. To make this worse, he thinks that Rhino's survival is suspicious (okay, but Alb survived too and though Heron had ample opportunity to give him grief for it, he never did), and 

I'm just going to say this. Even in LG82, where I did so badly I kept defending Eliminators and getting Villagers killed, where people were sussing me, where Szeth at the end of the game confidently ignored the player list indicating I was a Villager and declared he knew I was Evil all along, I never felt the need to performatively defend myself against pressure with this much handwringing. I just said, "Well, okay, here are my best shots" and winced inside and in my GM PM. I read a lot of emotion but I don't see the commitment to backing his reads up in that post. If you read Beagle as sus and continue to low-key insist she's sus, why are you voting alongside her and on Rhino? Why do you handwave your Beagle suspicions and vote for Rhino instead, effectively protecting Beagle?

A player's votes show where their motivations lie. Heron's motivations don't look very Village to me.

Which means I am minimally committed to a five-man team in the form of:

Hyena/Beagle/Cham/Gorilla/Heron

Additional slot, if there is, to go to Mouse, by my current credences, but may re-evaluate depending. Goodnight, all. See you on the other side.

Remember to keep discussion broad and to revise credences where necessary.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

28 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Which completely changes things, given that knowledge about who the coinshot was, who was directing her kills, and who she had hit willingly absolutely switches how people read her. If I had known that Beagle was ready and willing to hit Rhino, I probably would’ve felt a lot less suspicious of Rhino because the possibility of an elim coinshot was getting more and more prominent with each minute.

Right, fair. I should judge your actions based on the information you had, sorry again.

29 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

I think we only have one or two left, and I think one of them is Heron because of their D6. As for the other one, I think it’s one of the inactives. I’m talking like elephant or something, I think we have someone hiding in there. I don’t know how I feel about mouse.

Alright, thanks. 

[Violet Axolotl]

My team is something like Hyena/Gorilla/Chameleon/Beagle/Heron/maybe Scorpion? Probably just one of the inactives though; Elephant, Dingo, or Mouse. We had basically no resistance to the Cham train, and the Beagle one ended up going through pretty easily as well. This suggests no elim vote manip and some elims that aren’t confident in their ability to sway the thread.

If the elims actually have no (active) vote manip, then Scorpion is more likely to be village, since that D1 vote becomes quite a bit more risky. If I hadn’t Rioted (or Cham hadn’t been Soothed) we could have flipped Gorilla D1 with Scorp’s vote.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

6 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Give me your Elim team comp guesses - with players and roles. Specifically, think about who works with whom - we have Hyena/Cham/Beagle/Gorilla so far. Who works on that team?

Hyena/Cham/Beagle/Gorilla/Axl/Rhino? Etc.

We still have to find out where that fourth tineye message came from. A six person team with Rhino would mean the sixth player is a Mistborn or Rhino is a Thug who's extra life they spent on purpose. Axl could technically be a Mistborn but I don't think that's likely. Rolewise I think Mistborn/Mistborn/Coinshot/Regular/Regular or Mistborn/Coinshot/Tineye|Seeker/Regular/Regular/?. Six people including a Lurcher feels more likely than six with a Thug, but could be other things to. The double Mistborn team might have a weak role but not a Thug. Playerwise, hmm. I think it would have been easy for Heron to jump on Violet or Magenta D5 instead of Beagle, or even bus Chameleon, but the single vote for Beagle was unlikely to kill her with four other trains in existence. New Mouse seems more village than old Mouse, voting for Chameleon D5 when they were still potentially saveable and bringing up the possibility of an elim Coinshot when that wasn't being discussed (although postulating an elim Coinshot and rejecting it without having read the game is notable).

1 hour ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I'm 100% sure our final elims are in the Final Eight and about 90% sure they are in Final Six.

100% convinced of removing Alb/Rhino/Zebra is a lot. A six member team including a Thug is possibly too strong, and Beagle wasting one of her teammate's lives would be costly, but between that and the possibility of Alb or Rhino being Lurcher protected you get a number higher than 0. What happened in the past 11 hours to make you certain?

1 hour ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

And you know what, I’ll admit it, I didn’t feel good about my beagle vote. Hindsight is 20/20, so I’m glad I voted on them in the end, but I felt weird about it right up until the end because I didn’t have any major suspicion on them. Because guess what, a lot of other people’s suspicion came from the context of pm trust groups that many of us have not been privy too. I changed my vote to beagle off rhino because I felt bullied into doing so by people who have far more information than me. 

Beagle did get wrapped up too much in PM trusts. I largely stopped thinking about Beagle when she was 'cleared' in PM discussions with Meerkat and didn't start forming an opinion until Meerkat told me he'd been lying about trusting Beagle. I knew on D5 that Meerkat didn't trust the Coinshot but thought he was referring to Chameleon. I did know that Meerkat suggested the kill on Rhino and learned that Beagle was the Coinshot after spending a few hours arguing in PM for v!Coinshot/e!Rhino. The knowledge that the Coinshot had been directed to hit Rhino could have been made public since it was known that Meerkat and Penguin at least were in contact with the Coinshot. Meerkat defending Beagle D6 even to Penguin when he already had a strong suspicion of Beagle makes it reasonable for a villager not to vote Beagle because any personal opinions get overridden by the knowledge that you don't have as much information as someone who thinks Beagle's village. I don't know how much of this could have come out without making it obvious that Beagle was the Coinshot. Not explaining anything about Rhino could be an elim trap, but one that could easily catch villagers as well.

[Onyx Flamingo]

4 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Beagle did get wrapped up too much in PM trusts. I largely stopped thinking about Beagle when she was 'cleared' in PM discussions with Meerkat and didn't start forming an opinion until Meerkat told me he'd been lying about trusting Beagle. I knew on D5 that Meerkat didn't trust the Coinshot but thought he was referring to Chameleon. I did know that Meerkat suggested the kill on Rhino and learned that Beagle was the Coinshot after spending a few hours arguing in PM for v!Coinshot/e!Rhino. The knowledge that the Coinshot had been directed to hit Rhino could have been made public since it was known that Meerkat and Penguin at least were in contact with the Coinshot. Meerkat defending Beagle D6 even to Penguin when he already had a strong suspicion of Beagle makes it reasonable for a villager not to vote Beagle because any personal opinions get overridden by the knowledge that you don't have as much information as someone who thinks Beagle's village. I don't know how much of this could have come out without making it obvious that Beagle was the Coinshot. Not explaining anything about Rhino could be an elim trap, but one that could easily catch villagers as well.

And thus you’ve broken down better than I did part of why I voted rhino last cycle. 
 

It just feels so weird to me that, once suspicion was realized, it was actively discouraged by someone who was also sus of them. Obviously I don’t think meerkat is elim, but gosh, I feel like I know nothing. Whats the point of giving my opinions and thoughts if they’re always less important than whats happened behind the scenes? I don’t know, this is definitely more for meta discussion post game I think.

[Salmon Meerkat]

6 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

I don't know how much of this could have come out without making it obvious that Beagle was the Coinshot.

My view was no. And I feel that there's no significant difference to Rhino because it's conceivable Beagle chose Rhino to earn trust. But I note actions economy dictates that if we want to say Beagle chose RhinBut at the same time, there's the doxxing consideration - I feel the most realistic cycle in which you can think of doxxing a player against their will is when they're about to face the lynch. 

I don't like it when players do it to me, and especially not with an explosive role like Coinshot. We've explicitly had this discussion when Phat, the AG3 Seeker, just went and dumped the alignments and roles of every single player he Seeked in thread without giving a damn. Maili used to have this be an aggressive part of his playstyle - he died, all the roleclaims he had got dumped, period.

So I chose to let Beagle make the decision on whether she wanted to have a threadfight on the basis of her being a Coinshot or no.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

10 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Rolewise I think Mistborn/Mistborn/Coinshot/Regular/Regular or Mistborn/Coinshot/Tineye|Seeker/Regular/Regular/?.

I guess it's not impossible, but I'd still expect a Mistborn kill by now if there is an extra Mistborn in the team. 

14 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

100% convinced of removing Alb/Rhino/Zebra is a lot. A six member team including a Thug is possibly too strong, and Beagle wasting one of her teammate's lives would be costly, but between that and the possibility of Alb or Rhino being Lurcher protected you get a number higher than 0. What happened in the past 11 hours to make you certain?

For Alb, it's Thug + being the N1 hit + Cham attacking Alb and putting pressure on them in D2, voting to make it 3 votes on them at one point
For Zebra, like Kel explained, 2 village Lurchers would be required to balance an elim Coinshot. If we have another Lurcher, we'll require that claim because then it's 50-50 between them.
For Rhino, after losing 3 elims, I'd expect they realllly needed to decrease our numbers because they are not advancing towards their wincon and hence I think they were at a stage too late to pursue wgg. Rhino is probably weakest of the three, but it means one of the people who have not claimed is an active/semi-active Lurcher.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

I’ll respond to the thread soon but I just wanted to drop in real quick and say that while I’ll try my best to contribute as much as I can, expect my activity levels during the next 48 hours to drastically drop (or halt entirely if I don’t have internet access) as imma be CAMPING IN THE DESERT ok end of announcement 

[Salmon Meerkat]

17 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

but it means one of the people who have not claimed is an active/semi-active Lurcher.

Correction: In my view, any role that hasn't been confirmed could really be. Lurcher is a bit more explosive, but that being said, you can't really prove Regular, or action scan here. Roles with consistently provable actions include Tineye, Rioter, Soother, Smoker (if you have a Rioter/Soother/Seeker), and Seeker - a lot of this can still technically be fakeclaims or Mistborn claims. Would argue you're taking it all at face value here. E!Lurcher (in this hypothesis, because no one else would have Lurched Rhino) has no reason to claim and every reason to pick something unobjectionable like Thug or Regular.

[Quartz Zebra]

9 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

more likely to think zebra village

uhhh chah

i've voted 3 times this game

hit an elim all three times

and i saved meerkat

if that ain't hard-vil clear idk what is

and if yall suddenly start e-reading me for my absurd levels of confidence and boldness
ima scream

8 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Give me your Elim team comp guesses - with players and roles. Specifically, think about who works with whom - we have Hyena/Cham/Beagle/Gorilla so far. Who works on that team?

Hyena/Cham/Beagle/Gorrilla/Heron/...maybe Rhino? I def think there's at least 1 inactive elim.

no idea about roles

1 hour ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

I’ll respond to the thread soon but I just wanted to drop in real quick and say that while I’ll try my best to contribute as much as I can, expect my activity levels during the next 48 hours to drastically drop (or halt entirely if I don’t have internet access) as imma be CAMPING IN THE DESERT ok end of announcement 

not blue-texted hes elim 

Spoiler

for legal reasons this is a joke

 

 

also, hi elim team

its me

your probable kill target tonight/tomorrow night

ima let you know that i will literally be flipping a coin to decide whether or not to self-lurch, so good luck IKYK-ing that. caio.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Quartz Zebra

[Sapphire Elephant]

12 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

• @Melon Dingo, @Sapphire Elephant, and @Plum Rhinoceros need pressure. I'm sorry, but if you're just going to keep telling us you're sorry but refusing to make any effort at all right now, you're not going to be a help at lylo either. I asked you one simple question N5 - who did you most suspect. It's an easy question. It's been five and a half cycles into the game. You should not have difficulty answering this. I'm not asking for a reads list. I'm asking for a single suspect. @Magenta Albatross, feel free to get off that fence and join them here  

 

10 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Edited to add:

Okay guys, let's add extra homework.

Give me your Elim team comp guesses - with players and roles. Specifically, think about who works with whom - we have Hyena/Cham/Beagle/Gorilla so far. Who works on that team?

Hyena/Cham/Beagle/Gorilla/Axl/Rhino? Etc.

Elims should have more difficulty doing this and I want us to get some analysis in the Night while I'm still alive. I'll work on my thoughts myself.

Ok, so I know I should be doing both of those things, but I just finished reading through half of D6 and N6 (this thread) and haven't come up with much. Penguin and Meerkat are definitely village hard-clears (and it seems like everyone's in consensus on that), and since I'm really bad at making reads I'm just trying to analyze other people's reads and see what makes the most sense.
 

So far I like the argument Meerkat made for elim!Heron (and I guess elim!Alb after that, but the reads for elim!Alb are spread across more posts and the only reason I'm hanging on to it is because it's the (I think) second-most popular elim read here). So Heron it is.

As for team-comp, I have no idea. If I were to guess, it'd be less than helpful.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

16 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

if you were setting up a wgg on alb then id have thunk youd use the spiked kill not the coinshot who at the time could well have been village

I think this is an excellent point

I was already village-reading Alb for other reasons but this furthers it. By attacking Alb via coinshot (and their subsequent survival), the elims put Alb under suspicion by default, not in a position of trust.

10 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

I feel as though Beagle's willingness to hit Rhino might mean they're not E/E or Rhino is a Mistborn who happened to rand Pewter, unless we speculate they had a team Lurcher who can't be Zebra. Beagle had an easy out because she had a target selection and could just have easily not gone with Rhino.

They probably aren't E/E, because as we know Rhino never came online during the night turn (nor the day turn, nor this night turn), thus if we speculate e!Mistborn!Rhino, they never got the chance to open their GM PM to even see what metal they rolled that night. So how would Beagle know if they randed pewter or whatever metal (unless the GMs tell them in the doc idk). IDK, doesn't seem all that likely, and I don't think it makes a lot of sense for the elims to have a lurcher because the only attack threat they had was Swan, and you can't rand the same metal in succession etc etc. And yeah, Beagle could've gone with any other target of her choosing technically but since we already suggested Rhino, I imagine it was simpler for her to just agree with our suggestion as it didn't reveal much about her personal preferences, which we could potentially later use against her.

11 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Beagle also was okay with hitting Alb in theory but dithered a lot about it.

Perhaps this was because that would confirm Alb as v!thug? Cuz that would mean toucan, alb, and I confirmed v!thugs and that would've made us raise eyebrows at our coinshot.

1 hour ago, Quartz Zebra said:

not blue-texted hes elim 

gah you caught me

Okay looking at the remaining playerlist:

1. Amethyst Scorpion 
2. Azure Mouse
3. Chartreuse Penguin
4. Fuchsia Ostrich 
5. Ivory Dragonfly 
6. Magenta Albatross 
7. Melon Dingo 
8. Mint Heron  
9. Onyx Flamingo 
10. Plum Rhinoceros 
11. Quartz Zebra 
12. Salmon Meerkat 
13. Sapphire Elephant
14. Violet Axolotl 

For what it's worth I think there's only a single elim left. Apart from my brain and gut telling me so, I also have this Gorilla post from D1 at the back of my mind:

Quote

My own thoughts on the distro: I believe there to be 6 or 7 elims - 6 if there is a coinshot or mistborn among them; 7 if there is not. I'd say there are about one of each role, give or take one or two, in the village population. I'm not sure about elims, but I'd say there's likely one kill role (coinshot/mistborn) among them and two or three other, non-kill roles). 

They speculate 6 elims, given they have a coinshot OR mistborn. One sentence later they speculate one coinshot/mistborn with 2 to 3 other roles. Which adds up to 4 max. Except now we know there's both an e!coinshot AND e!mistborn, so I assume the initial 6 was to throw us off, and the later 4 was a slip (I think they had meant to write 3 or 4 non-kill roles instead, which would end us up with a max of 6 which would be consistent with their initial speculation). To me this means there's 5 elims: three non-kill roles, one coinshot, one mistborn.

Anyway,

Village: Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat, Fuchsia Ostrich, Quartz Zebra, Violet Axolotl, Amethyst Scorpion, Onyx Flamingo, Ivory Dragonfly, Magenta Albatross

Left with: Azure Mouse, Melon Dingo, Mint Heron, Plum Rhinoceros, Sapphire Elephant

Starting with Rhino. Yes, their deliberate filter-dodging and Falcon vote are concerning, but I have a feeling Cham might've convinced them into voting for Falcon. Cham did admit to having PMs with every player in the game (which has got to be true for all villagers because otherwise it's an easily refutable claim). Add to this all that other stuff about Beagle willing to jump on the rhino wagon + coinshot attacking them.

Moving on to Elephant - I don't feel great about Elephant. They have been online consistently enough to be sending in action orders, and they post regularly enough to not get nuked by the filter. Yet they've never voted once - which, yeah, could just be because they simply aren't active enough. This literally doesn't tell me anything about Elephant's alignment so...uh idk could go either way really

Mouse...weird as their iguana vote was, I think their early vote on Cham was good. Granted, it -omg just got ninja'd by Elephant they finally posted- was worded kinda hedgingly...

Quote

I look forward to your further thoughts and will be putting my vote here for now to keep the pressure up.

I'm willing to give Mouse the benefit of the doubt here though, because the pinch hitter probably hadnt caught up with the billion pages of the thread, plus their explanation for the Iguana vote seems okay.

Okay, moving on to Heron. 

First post is just RP with (what I assume to be) a joke vote on Axolotl for having opinions on voting. NAI

The second post is indicative of the detail with which Heron is apparently observing the thread; ends with a vote on Flamingo. Surprisingly at odds with their latest post where I get the impression they were in a rush and did not perhaps fully comprehend the thread situation. 

Third post is RP + a Meerkat vote for the tineye scan claim, after the gambit reveal. Reads slightly village simply because...why. But then, it's worth noting they promptly retracted their vote about 1.5 hours later, notably right after Meerkat gave them a village read for coming up with a theory so tin-foily. I can see this as an elim having done their job of tentatively gaining the trust of a softcleared villager and thus moving on to their actual misexe target (i.e. their vote on Ostrich in the same post). What I didn't notice about this post until now though, was:

Quote

Also, a rule question came up while I was typing this theory. @ Elbereth Do Lurchers protect against all attacks for that Night, or just one? If the Coinshot is evil (doubtful), and if the elims desperately wanted to kill Octopus (also doubtful), they might have tried a double tap, and I'm not sure of the interaction there.

In light of Beagle's alignment this rings multiple alarm bells. Everything about it. The 'if's, the 'doubtful', the e!coinshot speculation itself, the question which could've easily been asked in GM PM/elim doc instead of the thread. Sus points to this one.

Their fifth post occurs shortly after the Gorilla flip, containing reads of a selective list of players. Interestingly enough the list doesnt feature any of our three flipped elims since then.

And their sixth post is what made me pause, previously. Because they vote on Beagle seemingly out of nowhere and before Beagle's flip I was not considering beagle/heron e/e because of this. But Meerkat has brought up a good point that due to Beagle believing Meerkat and I had her back, e!Heron going after her with one harmless vote will only make Heron look good at the event of a Beagle flip - in other words it's good, safe distancing. A beagle train at that stage had little chances of taking off due to her being trusted by many. 

Now we've got Melon Dingo. Man this post took too long and I'm too tired to actually go ISO them rn but off the top of my head I know that despite being online at EoD D1, Dingo did not cast a vote (when they easily could have in order to save Gorilla). From what people have been telling me, elims like waiting till the EoD to defend their teammates from the exe and since Dingo didn't do that despite having the chance to...that makes me lean slight village. There were also a bunch of other times Dingo could've voted but they just...didn't. idrk what's up with that.xD

 

 

[Amethyst Scorpion]

6 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I guess it's not impossible, but I'd still expect a Mistborn kill by now if there is an extra Mistborn in the team. 

For Alb, it's Thug + being the N1 hit + Cham attacking Alb and putting pressure on them in D2, voting to make it 3 votes on them at one point
For Zebra, like Kel explained, 2 village Lurchers would be required to balance an elim Coinshot. If we have another Lurcher, we'll require that claim because then it's 50-50 between them.
For Rhino, after losing 3 elims, I'd expect they realllly needed to decrease our numbers because they are not advancing towards their wincon and hence I think they were at a stage too late to pursue wgg. Rhino is probably weakest of the three, but it means one of the people who have not claimed is an active/semi-active Lurcher.

What's the probability of not getting a kill the first five cycles? 7/8*(7/8-1/64)*(7/8-1/32)*(7/8-3/64)*(7/8-1/16) ~42.7%, so an ~57.3% of a Mistborn rolling steel. Don't feel like doing the calculations for a Mistborn who say gets bronze twice in a row and thus on night 3 still has a 7/8-1/64 chance of getting steel, but this reduces the chance to maybe 55%-57% or so.

Cham put pressure on Alb but didn't vote for him. The three people who voted for Albatross were Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla, and Emerald Falcon.

Even just one Lurcher and three-four village thugs against a five person elim team with a Coinshot is reasonably balanced. Zebra saving Meerkat when they could have gotten away with not doing that and Zebra voting Gorilla D3 when the Falcon counterwagon was viable do make me read Zebra as village.

It is true that an elim Lurcher saving Rhino requiring a seventh elim to submit a kill and a lack of logging in to check if they got Pewter if they were a Mistborn makes the alternative that the elims shot their own Thug when Beagle could have gotten away with killing someone else very unlikely.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

other reason not to wgg a elim thug is if said thug gets voted out it takes two cycles for them to die giving them an extra cycle of the spiked and conishot kills

 

 

[Melon Dingo]

Scimon Tlag yawned. He was getting over his minor hangover, thankfully, but still a bit exhausted. He could make himself a bit more presentable though. A Coinshot. Well, they knew there was one around town. One deciding to be a saboteur... now that was interesting. But the others had already gone through a lot of reasons why it was possible. Feels like saboteurs would try their best to get one of those all the time, but that wasn't really under their control. Even in Tyrian Falls.

Tlag shook himself. Okay. Presentable.

He still couldn't find Quartz. Or at least get a chance to talk to them, learn a real name. But they were a bit more accessible now, now that the town had been cut down to size. A morbid way of thinking about it. But a way decently close to what Tlag knew.

What else was there? Kellert. Finding a suspect. Tlag liked that style, but it was still difficult. There was a lot to go through. Votes, clues, decisions, momentary voices, some of which meant something. Tlag had read through some of the court transcripts. It was like reading a shipping contract: it had depth, and weight, and moments that made you smile in victory or just plain joy, but also nothings to sort through and... sour spots. Although perhaps a court proceeding's sour spots escaped the analogy. The recent ones, then. Again, a lot had been gone through by the others.

If he had to put a note down... the Scorpion. Not so much suspicion, but the fact that not many eyes were on that one. Scimon Tlag, he knew he wasn't the most helpful around. He had a business to maintain, and he didn't have the same attitude about togetherness that Kellert or Dyring had. He could understand it, of course. But Scorpion he had trouble understanding their trust. Maybe he needed to look earlier. Maybe not. But it would do for now. 

Did he want to kill Scorpion...

Scimon Tlag paused a moment. Then shook his head. No, that train of thought could wait until morning. A day without foilleaf should help, a bit. That was a strange plant.

What... ah. The Penguin. Strange name, but met a strange fellow. A Jester? That... really didn't explain much. But they were trusted by the circle, and the circle wasn't much of a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a circle anymore as much as a

Stop.

Scimon Tlag blinked.

What... ah. The Penguin. Strange name, but met a strange fellow. A Jester? That... really didn't explain much. But they were trusted by the circle, and the circle wasn't much of a circle anymore as much as a... a broken circle. Tlag scratched his head, but a better analogy was evading him. Regardless, the Coinshot Saboteur had been a part of it, so they were spreading information faster than a cavalry charge. Penguin was alright. It seemed they had some questions for Scimon Tlag too. Well... maybe he could help answer them. It was a bit too late tonight, but the Penguin would be here tomorrow unless something was terribly wrong. He could have voted, it was true... rusts, those first few days were so long ago. The more recent ones it wouldn't have made a difference. 

He should probably tell them all that. Then he looked down and saw the pen and paper in his hands. Had he been writing the whole time?

Erh. Whatever.

'If you need to buy, or need to ask... hours aren't on the wall because they're inconsistent, but come to Scimon Tlag's and I'll see what I can do.'

'Praise the Ja.'