Four to Five Books In 2021?

[Use the Falchion]

So this is just a bit of fun speculation, but I think there may be a small, tiny, infinitesimal chance that next year we may see UP TO FIVE books written or co-written by Sanderson come out next year. As it stands, we know of two "definite" books that will come out next year: Alcatraz 6 and the Post-July 2020 book. It usually takes Sanderson 3-5 months to write a book, and then we have 10-12 months between the first draft finishing and the book releasing. Alcatraz is all but finished, and even if it takes Sanderson 5 months to write a book we'd still be in the clear.

"But wait, Falchion," you might say. "What about the other two?" 

Well, fellow Sharder, that's easy. Sanderson has already talked about doing one more draft on both The Apocalypse Guard and Songs of the Dead (the latter of which he wanted to finish early 2020, but we have no idea if that happened or not). Assuming Sanderson has finished his draft on Songs of the Dead, and assuming Sanderson can finish his revisions on The Apocalypse Guard in July, our total will be brought up to four. 

So how does Sanderson reach that miracle fifth book? Well, that depends on a lot of factors, few of which I'd be happy about.

First it would require Sanderson to finish the Post-July book impressively fast. Sanderson has openly mentioned how this will either be Wax & Wayne 4 or Skyward 3. Originally I was leaning towards Skyward, but my mind changed recently. If Sanderson finishes up W&W fast enough (which would probably feel like a breeze compared to Stormlight), then I'd wager he could work on Skyward 3 & 4 back-to-back. 

The second part would require Sanderson to finish Skyward 3 in November...Stormlight 4 touring time. And to do that, he'd probably need to NOT go on a signing tour. And for that to happen...we'd have to be in quarantine again (assuming it "ended" during the summer/fall). Yeah, I don't like that future either. 

So overall, I think Sanderson can and most likely will have FOUR books release next year; but if Sanderson's determined enough, we may just be able to get up to five. What the release schedule would most likely be:

February - Alcatraz 6 

April - Songs of the Dead

July - The Apocalypse Guard

October - W&W 4 or Skyward 3

(December - W&W 4 or Skyward 4)

I'm probably crazy and this probably won't happen, but it's fun to imagine. 

[Eternal Khol]

I think The Lost Metal is supposed to see a 2021 release 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Eternal Khol

[+Ark1002]

39 minutes ago, Use the Falchion said:

So this is just a bit of fun speculation, but I think there may be a small, tiny, infinitesimal chance that next year we may see UP TO FIVE books written or co-written by Sanderson come out next year. As it stands, we know of two "definite" books that will come out next year: Alcatraz 6 and the Post-July 2020 book. It usually takes Sanderson 3-5 months to write a book, and then we have 10-12 months between the first draft finishing and the book releasing. Alcatraz is all but finished, and even if it takes Sanderson 5 months to write a book we'd still be in the clear.

"But wait, Falchion," you might say. "What about the other two?" 

Well, fellow Sharder, that's easy. Sanderson has already talked about doing one more draft on both The Apocalypse Guard and Songs of the Dead (the latter of which he wanted to finish early 2020, but we have no idea if that happened or not). Assuming Sanderson has finished his draft on Songs of the Dead, and assuming Sanderson can finish his revisions on The Apocalypse Guard in July, our total will be brought up to four. 

So how does Sanderson reach that miracle fifth book? Well, that depends on a lot of factors, few of which I'd be happy about.

First it would require Sanderson to finish the Post-July book impressively fast. Sanderson has openly mentioned how this will either be Wax & Wayne 4 or Skyward 3. Originally I was leaning towards Skyward, but my mind changed recently. If Sanderson finishes up W&W fast enough (which would probably feel like a breeze compared to Stormlight), then I'd wager he could work on Skyward 3 & 4 back-to-back. 

The second part would require Sanderson to finish Skyward 3 in November...Stormlight 4 touring time. And to do that, he'd probably need to NOT go on a signing tour. And for that to happen...we'd have to be in quarantine again (assuming it "ended" during the summer/fall). Yeah, I don't like that future either. 

So overall, I think Sanderson can and most likely will have FOUR books release next year; but if Sanderson's determined enough, we may just be able to get up to five. What the release schedule would most likely be:

February - Alcatraz 6 

April - Songs of the Dead

July - The Apocalypse Guard

October - W&W 4 or Skyward 3

(December - W&W 4 or Skyward 4)

I'm probably crazy and this probably won't happen, but it's fun to imagine. 

why'd you put The Apocalypse Guard on there? During SoS, last time I heard new about it, Sanderson said it was basically no progress, sorta dead.

[Orlion Blight]

9 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

why'd you put The Apocalypse Guard on there? During SoS, last time I heard new about it, Sanderson said it was basically no progress, sorta dead.

Yeah, I was about to post that, so count this as verification! 

I would say 3 books. That's based on the two you say are pretty much finished plus either Skyward or Wax & Wayne. Not both, though. Brandon has these things called children that destroy productivity and that he currently can not separate himself if he's being a good, responsible citizen during this time of cholera. 

So really, 3 books next year is optimistic. I wouldn't be surprised if it was only 1 or 2.

[Use the Falchion]

9 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

why'd you put The Apocalypse Guard on there? During SoS, last time I heard new about it, Sanderson said it was basically no progress, sorta dead.

 

2 minutes ago, Orlion the Platypus said:

Yeah, I was about to post that, so count this as verification! 

I would say 3 books. That's based on the two you say are pretty much finished plus either Skyward or Wax & Wayne. Not both, though. Brandon has these things called children that destroy productivity and that he currently can not separate himself if he's being a good, responsible citizen during this time of cholera. 

So really, 3 books next year is optimistic. I wouldn't be surprised if it was only 1 or 2.

Over the course of the year, Sanderson has really changed his tune on TAG. It's gone from being dead in the water and "maybe I'll release it some day," to "I think if I have some extra time I can fix it now." This culminated in February. During his LTUE panel with Dan Wells, Dan read some of the first chapter, and more recently on Reddit in March:

 

Quote

 

March 23, 2020 Share  Copy

 

mraize7

And for when The Lost Metal?

Brandon Sanderson

Current schedule:

1) Stormlight Novella next week.

2) Finish drafts 4-5 of Book Four until July.

3) In July, finish the Novella, do a revision of The Apocalypse Guard, which I think I might finally have figured out how to fix.

4) August: Start either Skyward 3 or Wax and Wayne 4. Once that is done, finish the other one.

5) Middle of Next year: Decide next project after those two are finished.

6) Start Stormlight 5 January 2022, for Christmas 2023 release.

 

 

So if Sanderson can get that revision done and pass it along to Dan for one final revision (if that's even needed at this point), then we have a good chance of seeing the book next year. So now we have Alcatraz 6, Songs of the Dead, The Apocalypse Guard, and lastly Skyward 3 OR Wax and Wayne 4.

 

10 hours ago, Eternal Khol said:

I think The Lost Metal is supposed to see a 2021 release 

This one's tricky. The sardonic answer is that TLM was supposed to see a 2018 release. More seriously, Sanderson has two publishers he needs to please, Tor and Delecarte. Tor gets all of his fantasy books, so they'll be nice and happy with the Stormlight book later this year.

Delecarte gets his YA stuff, and it would have been two years since Sanderson last delivered. They might be patient, but that won't stop them from being antsy. Sanderson would be aware of this and would want to deliver Skyward 3 ASAP to them (also he may be on the edge of burn out out with epic fantasy between the slog to get Stormlight 4 finished, writing the Stormlight novella, and writing the Mistborn screenplay). So he could write Skyward 3 in a relatively short amount of time (say, three months or so?) and then either go to Mistborn in late 2021 for an early 2022 release date - something he mentioned as a real possibility - or write Skyward 3 & 4 back-to-back and write Mistborn 7 later in 2021, solidifying a mid-2022 release. 

It's not like Sanderson can't push back TLM one final time, so long as it's out before Stormlight 5. 

The other possibility is that Delecarte gets The Apocalypse Guard (since it was supposed to be the sequel to the Reckoners trilogy and theirs to begin with), which would hold them over until Skyward 3 comes out; Sanderson writes Mistborn 7 because writing the screenplay for TFE has invigorated him, and then he finishes Skyward 3 in early 2021, but finds a way to speed up its revision and release window (not sure how, but it's a possibility). 

 

[Orlion Blight]

13 minutes ago, Use the Falchion said:

The sardonic answer is that TLM was supposed to see a 2018 release. 

It's not like Sanderson can't push back TLM one final time, so long as it's out before Stormlight 5. 

The sardonic answer  would be "Sanderson could technically never write or release The Last Metal". 

A further delay on The Last Metal might not be wise, though. Particularly because of the reason it got delayed in the first place: it just does not build good will. And if we can read sub-meanings in his State of Sandersons, we can see that he is shifting towards the mindset of "Cosmere books, but particularly Stormlight, puts carbs on the table".

So, if he is planning on a quicker turnover for Stormlight 5, that does not leave him a lot of leeway to postpone the Last Metal. Particularly if he 1) Wants to release it before Stormlight 5 and 2) Show he wasn't taking on surprise personal side projects before finishing Wax & Wayne. Or at least trying, like he said before. 

[Use the Falchion]

2 minutes ago, Orlion the Platypus said:

Particularly because of the reason it got delayed in the first place: it just does not build good will.

I can't entirely disagree with this, but Sanderson does have a good bit of good will stored (...like a Feruchemist? ;)) because many of his fans will read both Stormlight and Mistborn. And he's not masking the fact that's been...sidetracked...sometimes because books don't work out (The Apocalypse Guard the first time around), other times for personal dream projects (MTG novella). Besides, the pressure from publishers might outweigh any good will the fans he erodes (which, let's be honest, will come back as soon as the book is released). 

4 minutes ago, Orlion the Platypus said:

And if we can read sub-meanings in his State of Sandersons, we can see that he is shifting towards the mindset of "Cosmere books, but particularly Stormlight, puts carbs on the table"

Ha! I think it's more of "THIS is what I want to be remembered for, and I need to start buckling down if I want to complete it." All of Sanderson's books put carbs on the table. His books are best-sellers, he has/had a few million dollar deals going on, and has stated before that if he never wrote another book he could live pretty comfortably as is. But I see your point. 

5 minutes ago, Orlion the Platypus said:

So, if he is planning on a quicker turnover for Stormlight 5, that does not leave him a lot of leeway to postpone the Last Metal. Particularly if he 1) Wants to release it before Stormlight 5 and 2) Show he wasn't taking on surprise personal side projects before finishing Wax & Wayne. Or at least trying, like he said before.

I think he has more time than you're giving him credit for. Sanderson's not trying to get Stormlight 5 out before 2023. If he starts writing January 1, 2022, Sanderson will still have a a little less than a year and a half to write and release a book that takes up maybe a little less than half of that time-frame. So ideally it'll look something like:

Wax & Wayne 4 Draft 1-2: August - October/November 2020

Skyward 3 Draft 1-2: November/December 2020 - February 2021

Wax & Wayne 4 Draft 3: March 2021

Skyward 4 Draft 1-2: April - June 2021  

Wax & Wayne Draft 4-5: July 2021 (FINISHED, 2021 Release)  

Skyward 3 & 4 Draft 3: August - September 2021

New Project*: October - December 2021

Skyward 3 & 4 Draft 4-5: December 2021 (FINISHED, 2022 Releases)

Stormlight 5: January 2022 - December 2022

 

*In this scenario, the new project could range anything from: The Dark One novel (very unlikely), The Apocalypse Guard 2 (unlikely but still possible), YA kite-based Cosmere Magic book (less likely but still very possible), The Atzlanian (highly likely if he wants to clear off his plate), Rock novella (the most likely if he has no time for longer projects).

 

ALTERNATIVELY:

Skyward 3 Draft 1-2: August - October 2020

Wax & Wayne Draft 1-2: November 2020 - March 2021

Skyward Draft 3: April 2021

Wax & Wayne Draft 3: May 2021

Skyward Draft 3 4-5: June 2021 (FINISHED, 2021 Release)

Wax & Wayne Draft 4-5 July 2021 (FINISHED, 2022 Release)

Skyward 4 Drafts 1-3 or 4: August - December 2021 (workshopped while working on Stormlight 5, 2022 Release)

 

 

 

 

Either way, Mistborn 7 is finished by July 2021. But both assume Sanderson ISN'T writing Skyward 3 & 4 back-to-back, which isn't a guarantee. I'm not saying I don't want TLM first, I'm just saying it's not a guarantee we'll get it in 2021. I hope I'm wrong though. Heck, I hope that somehow Sanderson pulls a miracle and writes BOTH in 2020 so we can reach that miracle Five Book 2021. But that would probably be putting a lot of people at health risks...