Hoid wrote the Letter to Sazed

[FirstSelector]

I realize that this theory may seem redundant given how much we discuss the Letter, Hoid, and Sazed. However, I feel that there is new evidence to support this claim, so this theory is an attempt to summarize many of the main points.

We have unfortunately few direct facts concerning the Letter, its author, and its recipient. I will also make a few assumptions that seem reasonable given our current knowledge.

Facts

* Demoux was the 2nd person (with Galladon and an unknown character from an unpublished work) searching for Hoid on Roshar.

* There was a infamous letter sent between two individuals who are both well-informed in Cosmere nature.

* Sazed (as Harmony) believes in letting Scadrial try to run itself without Shardic interference (based on his conversation with Wax).

* Way of Kings happens at least 100 years after the conclusion of Hero of Ages.

Assumptions

* Demoux was not an atium Ferring, nor a Feruchemist. Due to the Lord Ruler's breeding programs, It is likely that he did not have any Terris blood.

* Atium compounding is the only way to live an extremely elongated life on Scadrial as of the conclusion of HoA. While we cannot rule out a priori atium or lerasium alloys, there appears no other way to live forever using the Metallic Arts.

* Demoux, Galladon, and the unnamed third person looking for Hoid at the Purelake are members of the Seventeenth Shard. While we have no direct evidence to prove this, it seems reasonable given the text of the Letter and their stated intent. It is, however, a distinct possibility that they are not affiliated with the group, and are looking for Hoid for other reasons.

* Hoid wrote the letter. Again, there is no direct evidence to support this claim. Given the subject nature of the text and its connection with the previously mentioned Seventeenth Shard, however, it seems likely that Hoid is the author. There is much to be said on the subject here.

* Ati, Rayse, Aona, Bavadin, and Skai are the original holders of their respective Shards. This is slightly less of an assumption, based on what we know.

* The recipient is himself a Shardholder. The Letter is basically a call for Cosmere-scale help, so unless there are other similarly powerful entities lurking around, the only possible class of recipient is those who still have their Shard(s).

* Seons, being the Splinters of Devotion, could only come into existence after Odium killed Aona. It seems reasonable that Splintering a Shard causes the Splinters to come in to existence.

Theory

Now on to the big question - why Sazed? I will analyze certain sections of the Letter to provide evidence for this claim, and then look at other evidence based on the lifespan of Demoux.

* Previous knowledge of the Shardholders - In the Letter, Hoid references names such as Ati, Rayse, Aona, and Skai. Importantly, he gives a brief sketch of the personalities of Ati and Rayse. From this, we can conclude that the recipient was not present when the original Shardholders received their Shards. Otherwise, he would already know the people involved. Sazed was clearly not born at this point, so it would be pertinent for Hoid to describe the other Shardholders.

However, Hoid then makes a very specific reference - "... and you saw what became of him [Ati]." This implies that the recipient was aware of Ati's eventual corruption from "kind and generous" to a calculating and remorseless destroyer of worlds. Sazed witnessed (and understood) Ati's attempts to destroy Scadrial.

* The Seventeenth Shard - The recipient is at the very least friendly with this mysterious organization. This is important.

* Non-intervention - The Letter, at no point, makes reference to a local world, such as Scadrial or Roshar; on the contrary, it deals wholly with Cosmere-wide effects. Hoid then claims that the recipient believes in "nonintervention." I interpret this to mean nonintervention on a Cosmere-wide scale, based on the context. We have no reason to believe otherwise on a "local" scale - the recipient could be focused solely on his planet and eschew all other issues entirely.

* Events on Sel - Hoid seems to imply that the recipient could only have witnessed the aftermath of Odium's visit to Sel. He does not imply that the recipient could have prevented the attack in some form, only that there was extreme damage done and that the results were disastrous. Sazed was born after the events of Elantris, and thus after the Seons appeared and the death of Aona.

Sazed fits this bill nicely, in that he attempts nonintervention on his own world. It is perfectly conceivable that Sazed could desire that his world run itself without his intervention while having his hands all over the rest of the Cosmere. However, I claim that his Preservation/Ruin Intents would drive him to enforce his nonintervention on both relevant scales. There is a thread going here that discusses this.

Now for the kicker of the argument, and what drove me to piece this together in the first place. We have recently seen that Demoux is one of the people searching for Hoid, who by assumption are members of the Seventeenth Shard and associated with the recipient. However, since we also assume that Demoux is not able to Feruchemically Invest atium, it is impossible for him to live an extended life in the same manner that the Lord Ruler did.

Thus, since we observe Demoux alive and well during the events of Way of Kings, it must be that he has gained and elongated lifespan. He cannot Compound atium (a necessary condition to survive indefinitely using the Metallic Arts), so there must have been some other factor that allowed him survive until the search for Hoid on Roshar. The method is not particularly important at the moment (although I suspect it is related to Hoid's time dilation effects), but what is important is the timing.

Here's where the speculation starts. I propose that Sazed, after picking up Preservation and Ruin, did some poking about the Cosmere. He encountered Hoid (either on Scadrial or elsewhere, although it is also reasonable that Hoid would want to meet the "new guy on the block"), and for whatever reason also decided that he wanted watchers on other planets. Perhaps it was an attempt to categorize the other Shards without showing up on their doorstep, or maybe as an advance warning system to see if he would be attacked. To this end, he created the Seventeenth Shard, and inducted Demoux. The story could continue with him eventually discovering Sel and inducting other members, but beyond that there is little more evidence to continue.

Of course, any complete theory for this topic would have to account for the level of familiarity between the author and the recipient. I claim that in the span of time between HoA and WoK, Sazed and Hoid could come to know each other very well. In particular, if Hoid's true goal is to reunite the Shards, Sazed has a controlling influence on this process. If Sazed and Hoid did not agree on tactics to reunite the Shards, then that could lead to an understandable amount of bad feelings on both sides. I don't want to delve into the possibility that Hoid has the last bit of either God Metal, but it is possible that such a turn of events is why Sazed is angry with Hoid.

Objections

There are obviously some ways that this theory falls apart. Much of it rests on Hoid writing the Letter and his seekers belonging to the Seventeenth Shard. Apart from the obvious assumptions, though, it is clear that this theory is also dependent on Sazed's activities following his ascension. It is my opinion that the writing in the HoA epigraphs supports the idea that Sazed would try to learn as much as possible about the wider Cosmere as he could, and being a scholar he wouldn't wait long. There are also a few assumptions on the exact wording of the Letter, and given the importance ascribed to such by Brandon I find it likely that there are no "accidents" in diction or phrasing.

If I have made other implicit assumptions or errors, please point them out. Thanks!

[Sunblesser]

a well articulated theory. just to speak to one point, it is entirely possible that once sazed ascended, he altered demoux's genetics to allow him to worldhop/be immortal. he altered spook to be mistborn, why not demoux? one lieutenant to found elendel, the other to travel shardworlds on w.e mission you give him.

[tipbruley]

I had posted the same thing about a week ago. A lot of it just made sense. Then someone mentioned that Elantris happened before Mistborn and that the events of Elantris definitely happened after Aona and Skai were killed. That makes the following line sound like it debunks the theory because if Hoid new Sazed, he would have already known about Aona and Skai.

One need only look at the aftermath of his brief visit to Sel to see proof of what I say.[8] In case you have turned a blind eye to that disaster, know that Aona and Skai are both dead, and that which they held has been Splintered. Presumably to prevent anyone from rising up to challenge Rayse.[9]

I then revised my theory completely...

[FirstSelector]

Sunblesser, I agree wholeheartedly. I suppose I should have been a bit more clear at the end - Sazed must have done something (given him knowledge of Hoid's trick or other effects) to ensure his lengthened lifespan. I don't think we have enough facts to pinpoint the exact method yet, but I'm sure that such a change is well within his power.

[spacemonkey]

The biggest problem I have with this theory is that in the Letter, Hoid says "as you are now essentially immortal". That implies that he knew whoever it was before they were immortal, and Hoid never met Sazed before he became Harmony. It is also implied that the recipient of the letter was around at the time Odium killed Aona and Skai, which Sazed definitely wasn't.

[Zas678]

Also, if the 17th shard didn't exist till HoA, then who wrote the Ars Arcanum for Elantris?

[FirstSelector]

I don't see the necessity of the recipient being around Sel when Odium killed Aona/Skai, so if someone could provide a good explanation that would be great.

I feel that, in this case, that Hoid would have been at least aware of Sazed before the latter's ascension. He was one of the few remaining Feruchemists in HoA, and a very prominent member of the crew that overthrew the Lord Ruler. Thus, his line about immortality can be understood as "you were not previously immortal, but you are now," which supports this idea.

There are a few ways to account for the annotations. It is possible that there are other worldhoppers than Hoid, and that they were independently accumulating information. Then, Sazed discovered them and formed Seventeenth Shard around their group. Alternatively, Sazed inducted the person who wrote the Elatris annotations and had him write the one for HoA.

In any of our theories about annotations, however, we have to account for the fact that the annotations from Scadrial change depending on the book. I do not have a good explanation for this yet, so I personally find the independent group hypothesis more likely.

[CrazyRioter]

Brandon has said that the recipient of the letter is in Dragonsteel, an unpublished as yet prequel series to all the other cosmere books.

[FirstSelector]

Well, I guess there are worse ways for theories to die... but that's pretty interesting. I hope it wasn't revealed earlier and I forgot about it before posting.

[CrazyRioter]

um I think it came up at one of the Alloy signings.

[Zas678]

Nope, but I remember the quote. It's from a Reddit article I think. Not the Reddit AMA, but a different one. I'll dig it up when Reddit is back online.

[Chaos]

Nope, but I remember the quote. It's from a Reddit article I think. Not the Reddit AMA, but a different one. I'll dig it up when Reddit is back online.

Huh. I must have missed that too. (Of course, I'd always thought the recipient was from Dragonsteel, so I could have glossed over it)

[mycoltbug]

Came from a QA on twitter that I asked him.

[Zas678]

That's it! I knew that it was sneaked in somewhere, and Brandon grudgingly said yes, then you asked if it was the person who it's most likely to be, and he said he couldn't say, that he'd given you enough.