Haelbarde

Me right now trying to decide how I feel about last minute vote changes

Yeah... With how comparatively quiet this cycle has been, I almost miss the chaos that Fifth caused >> (You can stop editing your post now Kas :P)

They also didn't post basically anything that day on the Shard either. I still have a problem with the immediate follow but then 14 hour delay before telling us they forgot, even though that was likely honest. Seems the sort of thing you say as soon as you realise you forgot. It's suggestive that Xino isn't it the active elim, if they are evil.

Fwiw, they followed C1 and C2 a couple of hours into the cycles, but are not currently following C3.

Infinite might be in a similar position, posting an hour ago but followed thread 15 hours ago. I think without changing settings, normally posting auto follows, but also by default I think you get email updates on every post in a followed thread, which is great for keeping up with thread without logging on (although you miss out on any edits that happen to posts). Goes and looks at Shard settings. >>

This may be me misunderstanding how the forum works and/or being unaware of what settings there are around following threads, but it strike me as odd that Xino followed this thread 17 hours ago (i.e. shortly after this thread was posted), but only posted an "Oops, forgot about last cycle" 3 hours ago.

Didn't get to looking back over those others, but if I'm going to give Aman a stay of execution, it probably makes more sense to test the Xino execution over Nerdy, though neither of these is going to be our active elim. But time nor energy to I have. Will tie things up now to ideally avoid last minute shenanigans again. >> Vote Tally (Detailed) (3) Aman: Mat(t) {1}, Fifth {1}, Aman {2}, Kas {3}, Exotic {1}, Stick {1}, Aman {3} (0) Mat(t): Aman {1} (4) Fifth: Kas {1}, TUN {1}, Stick {2}, Exotic {2}, Bookwyrm {1} (4) Xino: Kas {2}, Nerdy {1}, Kas {5}, Devo {1}, Hael {2} (0) Nerdy: Kas {4}, Hael {1} Vote Tally (4) Fifth: TUN, Stick, Exotic, Bookwyrm (4) Xino: Nerdy, Kas, Devo, Hael (3) Aman: Mat(t), Fifth, Aman

Thanks for both these posts, very helpful for trying to work out the mess that was the last 15 minutes of cycle. Aman's post makes some amount of sense to me, though I do think it's fair criticism based on Kas' analysis that the lack of vote on Silver, given the time remaining in thread when Stick and Kas posted their votes. So I'm dubious about your actual intent to have Silver executed. Feels like the Nerdy vote was about reading e!Fifth, and sussing Fifth voting everywhere but Nerdy. ...Though you do say that Nerdy and Xino both could be evil with Silver. With Nerdy being the primary execution option, shifting there and staying there would be reasonable. So yeah, I think on the whole I can understand v!Aman. And while e!Aman could totally pull off intentionally saving an ally, then surviving a cycle or two in thread to muddy waters, I'm willing to trust his claims of trying to be casual about playing for the most part. With I think Fifth's choices being... interesting... without having had the bandwidth to review them properly, a decision to avoid Nerdy could potentially be something. Enough that I think I'm willing to put a vote down on Nerdy for the moment and see what happens. Vote Tally (Detailed) (3) Aman: Mat(t) {1}, Fifth {1}, Aman {2}, Kas {3}, Exotic {1}, Stick {1}, Aman {3} (0) Mat(t): Aman {1} (4) Fifth: Kas {1}, TUN {1}, Stick {2}, Exotic {2}, Bookwyrm {1} (2) Xino: Kas {2}, Nerdy {1}, Kas {5} (1) Nerdy: Kas {4}, Hael {1} Vote Tally (4) Fifth: TUN, Stick, Exotic, Bookwyrm (3) Aman: Mat(t), Fifth, Aman (2) Xino: Nerdy, Kas (1) Nerdy: Hael Now to try and process Fifth and/or Matt, and/or Xino to see if I should actually be changing my vote. >>

Somewhat, though I'm still reeling and/or exhausted from last cycle so feel like I'm barely language processing. Well not quite, but I'm gonna be out of service for the next few hours for sure. I did the mini painting in the wrong order today I think >>

Vote Tally (3) Nerdy: Xino, Bookwyrm, Aman, (5) Silver: Wizard, Devo, Hael, Stick, Kas (3) Aman: Insanity, Fifth, Mat(t) (2) Xino: Nerdy, Almond, (1) GM: TUN, @Szeth_Pancakes is the listed 4 total votes on Nerdy accurate?

Okay, now that is interesting. Though it feels like boy who cried wolf or something, Silvereye was my other candidate for someone with doc access based on their one post, but I'd gotten to the point of convincing myself that either they were the Winzik, or were a spy, which was a pretty terrible place to be. Boy am I glad to not regret my vote... But also, did we really have to have 24 posts and 12 votes happen in the last 15 minutes of cycle?!

Vote Tally (4) Nerdy: Xino, Bookwyrm, Aman, Kas (3) Silver: Wizard, Devo, Hael (3) Aman: Insanity, Fifth, Mat(t) (2) Xino: Nerdy, Almond, (1) GM: TUN, (1) Fifth: Stick Seriously wondering about a Aman / Kas E/E about now. EDIT: Seriously stop posting people... >>

Vote Tally (3) Silver: Kas, Wizard, Devo, (4) Nerdy: Xino, Mat, Bookwyrm, Aman (2) Xino: Nerdy, Almond, (1) Aman: Insanity, (1) GM: TUN, (1) Hael: Fifth (1) Fifth: Stick Um. Maybe I'll regret this, but the changing votes make me want to vote Silver.

Not actually a very hard ISO to do >> I'm finding myself really divided on the Silvereye execution. There's things I like about it, things I don't, and the dice gods didn't respond when I asked for comment. I haven't actually iso'd Devo yet, but that seemed less pressing. I'll do that next cycle. ... Ack, what's happening

The thread is long and I keep getting distracted >> My vibe reads didn't really shift a ton. Bookwyrm I was fairly happy with, was about the extent of my thoughts on that. Fifth and Silverye have been absent, and Infinite hadn't really done much. Mat(t) I remain mixed on. Was liking some of it, but not enough to shift the dial atm. Didn't really process anything Devo or Wiz was saying, while I'd like more from TUN. Finally, discussions happening did remind me that I will really need to try my best to remain critical of Aman and Kas' posts, but that's not a problem I've the energy for this cycle. >> I... am not sure I know how that happened. I definitely forgot that Aman had moved his vote to Dannex. I think I got confused by the language others were using around the execution. Aman's "consolidate on Dannex" made me think it was a tie, although that doesn't really imply that. Then Mat(t) talking about it sounded like he didn't want to act as tiebreaker. After that, I was more worried about trying to talk you back off the edge, and didn't bother to go back and double check the vote tally to work out that actually you were fine. It'd be a fun team I checked the final vote counts and it didn't look like Mint Heron got much heat by end of any particular cycle, other than the cycle in which I died, in which I was one of the 2 votes on Mint Heron that wasn't enough to save me from 3 votes. I definitely was advocating not night killing them for the first few cycles, but still not sure if I did anything in thread. Fifth hasn't said basically anything this turn, and I've yet to review their last cycle posts. Though they're still at goodish, given more players have floated to goodish or higher, and I've not updated their position, more likely to drop them to meh at this stage, pending further review. Without looking at it, I wouldn't not vote Fifth at this stage. I... think I quoted this because I wanted to think on it further. I guess I'll do the Devo iso next then. Going to post this now, and dive back in. I appreciate I'm running low on time though. Glancing at the actual vote tally, on the whole the choices feel weird. Silvereye was the other iso I needed to do, so I'll do that too. Before those two iso, I'd be feeling more included to join Stick on TUN, of any of the existing trains - I'd been meh about Silvereye last I looked, I do have Nerdy as elim reading, but... it's just really not that fun an intro to SE to kill them so early in an early game, so more out of principle I'd rather avoid it, otherwise that is probably my preferred choice from a suspicion stand point. Well, actually I'd rather Almond, but same problem, and they're otherwise not an option today.

If everyone voted only if they felt confident in their vote, almost no one would vote ever. It's all the low info, gut feeling, uncertain votes that help bring the game to the point where you can start making those confident votes.

It's taking awhile for me to get through, so posting an inprogress report, just got to the end of page 2. First off, I'm glad we have reached the end of Ookla season and names have all returned to normal! Or mostly anyhow. Regarding JNV I never really mused on the kill beyond calling out that I sus'd him as IC based on thread, to flag it as a potential option. To build on that, I figure the options were: 1. Random Kill 2. Linguistic Analysis 3. Based on C1 posts 1. Random Kill - Not impossible, as JNV would have been a fairly low info kill, given they only posted 2-3 times. In this scenario, they just go lucky, but I'm not sure that there's much more to go on. I may have distracted from speculation on that by my suggesting option 3 at the start of cycle, so just flagging that for consideration if that hadn't played out already. 2. Linguistic Analysis - Not something to really speculate on in thread. The other IC/Winzik can make that judgment for themselves if that was likely or not, based on the doc. 3. Based on C1 posts - As indicated at the start of this cycle, I think JNV posts were telling enough to put good odds on them being IC. Certainly based on reactions, as well as past memories, not sure that that sort of analysis is common. I feel Aman and Kas have plenty enough other tools in their toolbox anyway that it doesn't suit their style (particularly if they're both trying to play more casual these days). Feels a bit more like something in Fifth or Devotary's wheelhouse. I don't really know anyone else in this game well enough to comment. Moving on to the update player vibes/reads. As I started with, this is only as of the end of page 2. I'm flagging Devo, and particulary Wiz of needing more care given to reading their posts to evaluate my position on them. Player Vibes Village - Strong: Hael - Moderate: Stick - Slight: Kas, Aman Neutral - Goodish: Fifth, Xino (Forgotten), Bookwyrm (Perpetual), - Meh: Silvereye (Wind), Infinite - Badish: Devo, Wiz (Myopic), TUN (Unknown), Mat (Tall) Elim - Slight: Exotic, Nerdy - Moderate: - Strong: Absent - Vibe movements: Aman and Kas: Highly active in thread, productive discussions and analysis. I'm conscious that both are great at doing that whether village or not, and they're both players I'm going to have a blindspot for. Putting them as village leaning for the moment, but I am going to have constantly reevaluate that I think. I'd consider upping Kas to moderate for the seeming unflinchably toe the line of the execution, only I don't think it's quite enough to clear him just yet. Stick: I'm liking all their posts, and their approach feels right to me. Because that's resonating with me, without having spotted any red flags (not that I've searched deeply for them), putting them up to moderate village. Mat(t): They're feeling like last game. Which I was thinking was a good thing, but then he was E/E with me last game so... I should probably go through his posts more critically, but for the moment just based on feelings, dropping him down to badish vibes. Xino and eXotic: I feel uncomfortable with Exotic's vote on Xino. Without noticably following C1, just jumping in with a vote on Xino as their first post, as a new member of SE and claiming to be "too new" doesn't really feel like a clueless new villager move. I could see elim discussion of Kas' Xino vote in doc being like "yeah, we're happy for Xino to be executed", thus prompting the follow on vote from Exotic. Makes me lean elim on Exotic, and thus village on Xino, though I'd rather avoid executing Exotic so early in the game given it's their first game, and their first post. Xino hasn't done enough to actually get bumped into Slight Village though, so just moves to goodish vibes. Nerdy: I probably feel weirder about the Exotic post, but I already had Nerdy at badish, and their Xino post feels odd. Feels like one of the two is E, but probably not both. If neither, I'm very confused Bookwyrm: As a player with only 5 games under their belt, they're feeling like the right sort of confused and uncertain of how to proceed. Happy enough to bump them up to goodish, and/or slight village if they continue posting without any particular red flags. I really need to get back to this, and RP that game. But (re)reads first. I forget why I quoted this. I think it was part of my "I need to reread his posts" thing. I agree with the sentiment here at least.

Apologies, read some of thread when I woke up, but then got distracted painting minis. Going to go reread thread and collect my thoughts.

Unfortunately not. The flip 2&4 doesn't apply to cards played after it, so that's a bust at 23. Tablemaxing only applies if you get a score below 20 after playing 9 cards. It was foolish of me to put them as village in my reads, given I placed them on my slight village read because I was confident they were IC. Given that was the actual reason, I'd have had to come up with something, so I would have looked back at their posts at that point, and likely would have commented something along the lines of "They seemed earnest enough in their posts, engaging in the right sort of way to be helpful to the village, provided they do continue to post. Based on my general impression of them, without any immediate red flags to me, willing to bump them into slight village over goodish neutral vibes."

Heh fair enough.

Though I'm guessing it's saying you don't think favourably of my response, I'm not sure what you mean by shadow repeat

The vibes list was a way of representing where my head was at at the time, without writing down all the specifics of what was prompting those thoughts. I can go through and actually vocalise those thoughts this cycle if you want, but I think Dannex made it on to the Badish list based on their responses earlier in cycle not feeling quite right. Again, can pull up the specifics for you in the morning. The actual choice to vote on Dannex was then based on considering the options on the Badish list, arriving on Dannex mostly by a matter of elimination. It's been awhile since I've played regularly, so although it's likely not the best strategy for supporting one's alignment, I prefer to avoid immediately killing old acquaintances. So in this case, Devo and Kas had a pass. Nerdy got a pass for it being their second game, and I don't think getting D1'd that early in one's SE career is fair. I killed TUN cycle 1 last game, after which I learned they'd recently died early in the previous few games or something, so I really didn't want to kill them first turn either. That left us with Dannex and Wiz. The decision there was based on Dannex having made more posts which seemed more significant for a bad vibe to be sticking around, than Wizards... 3 posts? Of which I think only one was noteworthy. Kas' reactions last cycle after he put himself up for execution were making me strongly read Kas as village, so that then reinforced the desire to remain on Dannex to keep Kas alive, though I would have accepted a Wizard counter execution had there been enough additional interest in supporting Aman on Wizard. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Cycle 1 comments on rules are almost always very telling, particularly when relating to those unique to the game, or when it's more of a rolemadness game. It's funny, it's often the coinshots that best can explain the coinshot rules if anyone happens to be confused in thread If you want, I can go back and find in my earlier games examples of me doing that sort of analysis before. I definitely know I've made accurate predictions based on that sort of thing before, though it's been so long since I've played that I couldn't say for sure that it is spelled out in a post, doc, or PM.

Mm. That with the following comment about how the game worked re:finding the hidden minority felt very much like someone with access to the doc who found they actually had to reread the rules.

Sigh. >> This is why I keep talking about opsec at the start of most games. I'd have probably night killed JNV myself just based on their posts last cycle. I guess Dannex not posting was vanilla villager disengagement, rather than any sort of doc action then. :/ Yeah, I can accept that. @Ookla the Omniscient Is my vote intentionally missing from Dannex?

I'm not sure I really understand what this is trying to say though. I don't call that Nerdy's own paranoia, and I'd call it partly just wrong time, wrong place, where had someone else been arguing at the time, and Fifth wasn't involved, the vote could have easily gone elswhere.