Wahrheitswächter

I was specifically talking about us loosing this Loop as well, if we would win the Loop, Option 2 and 3 are about them same, as in either case we have 2+ suspects in a pool of 7 people.

I see there is a bit of discussion about loosing this loop as well, if that happens and the Blast is triggered killing Archer and Araris (It seems like thats the Plan right now) there are three outcomes. They NK hits an unconfimred villager: Dead: 7-8 villagers 1-0 elim Alive: 3 confirmed villagers 3-4 elims 2-1 villagers -> thats the option you all assume would happen and yes that sound good, we only need 1 extra player from the living we are sure that is villager and we would win the next 2 loops. and have probably a good enough guess who to kill for the tie breaker They dont NK as enough villagers are alread dead Dead: 6-7 villagers 1-0 elim Alive: 3 confirmed villagers 3-4 elims 3-2 villagers -> now we suddenly need 2 extra Players from the living 6 we are sure is villager to win the next 2 loops a lot harder than option one but very likely to happen -> Dangerous for them because they cannot be certain Archer doesnt pull a stunt on them and they suddenly loose the loop becuase they havent killend enough Players to acout for 1 dead elim They NK Ash, Tum or Me (confirmed villagers) Dead: 1 confirmed villagers 6-7 villagers 1-0 elims Alive: 2 confirmed villagers 3-4 elims 3-2 villagers -> most likely outcome, odds for us to win are the same as in Option 2 -> they dont risk loosing the loop Yes I know that me sharing those Options could help the elims make the decision that is the least helfull for us but I would argue that they have probably already had those thoughts because the Plan was shared and I would guess they would have thought about how they could harm it the most -------------------------------------------------------- Wahi was completely confused, it felt like this was all some sort of very weird dream. After they had left Clocktown and arrived at the Peaks, that Girl Ap, had somehow reached an floating Island which had exploded, leaving everyone to think she died, after climbing the cliff half down, nearly falling and then climbing back up as a fairy appeared from the ravine and lead them to a waterfall, where a flying Deku appeared, some of his companions seemed very sure that that was Ap, seemingly not so dead, then Ap flew up towards the source of the waterfall and not long after a Goron came back down, expecting to follow them. Wahi was completely lost was that Goron also Ap? He wouldnt be overly suprised, but would like to know how that happened then. He was preaty sure that the best thing he could do right now, was follow that Goron wherever it was rolling to.

If we killed one of them they would need 5 or more dead Villagers to win the loop, so all three NKs need to happen. If we havent we have the same Math as in L1

With the Confirmation That Araris had the Mask, I think I can seem that that seems more village. I originally assumed it was a false claim to not get exed, but I dont See an Elim going for the Mask and then revealing that they did it, so I will Vote another Susppect of mine, Coco

After climbing the cliff back up, Wahi walked over to the fairy, waiting at the Bridge. "So, what now? Do you want to Show us something little fairy?" He asked the creature, waiting for any sort of Response (Yeah I am getting tired and wanted to get in my last roleplay Post of the Cycle for full Rupees)

Wahi was halfway down the clif when he a small Rock broke away under his feet, he manged to hold himself, but realitically, that Part of the cliff that broke away under his weight was quite important to get down so he searched for a new hold with his feet, as a small fairy few up from the Cliff and waited at the bridge, he didnt knew where it had came from, but it seemed important, another very good reason to climb back up because that thing clearly wannted something. Luckily the Ascension wasnt that hard, he already knew where he would have good grip, so without any more falling Rocks he managed to pull himself back up. "I should not have tried that, nearly Fell down that cliff myself." Wahi said back, as he turned his attention back to the Fairy and followed it

There are three People that have claimed owning the Mask (Araris, TUm and Drake), so a minimum of two are lying, and Araris could have false claimed so he isnt getting exed and had not anticipted that other People claim to have it as well as they wouldnt want to make the mask useless by warning everyone that they have it. So I would say that was an attempt to not get exed. I do not think a villager would have claimed the Mask except to counterclaim.

Wahi sat at one of the fires when he heard an Explosion, No it couldnt happen again, he got up and crossed the bridges, making his way towards the Explosion, he arrived at at cliff, in the distance he saw the remains of a once floating Island something that caused it to explode. He heard people talking a Kid that entered a Sprint on the Island before it exploded. Wahi wasnt Sure how they would have acomplished that, seeing as the remnants of the Island didnt seem to have any Connecticut to the Rest of the Mountains but maybe that Explorer as well. A Person in a very strange looking Mask peered down the Cliff and sugested that someone climb down and Look for the child. Wahi wasnt to sure abbout the usefullness of that, That Kid had been at the Center of the Explosion, or at least thats what he heared, and even if they had survived that they would fallen who knows how deep and landed on very hard and maybe pointy stones. That Kid was probably dead. He saw other people Holding each other at they stood at the edge of the cliff. Wahi hadnt known the Kid, but uit seemed like a lot of people cared about her. Most of the people looking down the Cliffhanger seemed very distressed about what they just witnessed, so Wahi decided he would climb down there, he was probably the most Level headed Person right now, and so he started to climb down the cliff.

Well I do agree with you that I do not trust Coco, but I equally do not trust Mistfallen and Araris. Would probably agree to go with Coco next Day

Well now it seems like exeing Araris actually gets some Interest, I will switch again as I think now It will be usefull to Vote Araris instead of Mistfallen Yes I said switching back would be Silly just an hour Ago, but I think that changed now that my Vote will break the tie and be actually usefull.

Very Serious Roleplay indeed, I would even go so far as to say that is the most serious Roleplay I have seen this Game so far

@Archer Its not my fault that you Switched to Araris, If I had known that, I would have stayed on Araris, obviously. I Switched because it seemed like there wasnt much interest in exeing Araris today and that my vote would be more usefull elsewhere. If I get the feeling that it would acomplish anything I will probably go Back to Araris but not right now, because that would just feel silly

So, I think I will switch my Vote from Araris back to Mistfallen I don't trust either of them, but it does seen like that going After Mistfallen will actually get somewhere. I also have a bit of an elim lean on TJ, something feels off about him. ———————————————————————————————— RP: After a few hours of trying to get a hang of his New Sword, Wahi sat down at one of the Campfires, despite the very low temperatures, Wahi was still sweating, he felt like he wasnt very good with the sword, he had Goten enough of a feeling on how to handle it so he wasnt a danger to himself or others but he probably wouldnt be of very muche use if the Camp got attacked.

But the Risk of those Masks is always there in N3 they can only guess who has them its in now way guaranted that confirmed vilkagers have any of those and Keaton Mask is most likely not even in Game yet. So I would say the diffrence regarding Masks is negligebel

I would say N3 Was the best Option since at that point the elims would know if they want to keep the Pool of softcleared viallgers small (by killing a confirmed villager) because they won the loop or if they wanted to increas the Pool for elim suspects (by killing someone with unknow allignment) because they had already lost the loop anyway. So I did the Math, with the following assumptions: a) All NKs Hit villagers b) the selection which Player is exed is truly random In that case the elims had a chance of 50,7% to win L1 74,5% to win L2,3,4 So I know that those are very basic calculations and they do absolutely not Account for Previous loop results (like confirmed villagers), Bremen mask, and social Interaction nor do they accurately represent L1 results (with multiple skipped NKs) But Its late and I cant be bothered to do more Math In conclusion Stick is right L1 is the best to throw for elims as it is easiest for Village to win no matter what and so a smaller loss for elims not to mention no hard cleared villagers for the following Loops

Thanks, I would say understanding the mechanics of the Game and how thigs will interact with stuff is more so my strong suit than getting reliable social reads, I am going mostly of of vibes in that regarde -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RP stuff to get more Rupees: Most of the evacutaed people hat set up camp near a Goron Smithy, It was definitely to cold here up n the mountains , he had heard that a bit further up the mountain, there were some hot springs, but the prices to enter were apparently quite high and Wahi had only a handfull of Rupees. When Sakons wagons moved towards the Goron village, Wahi had stayed back with the other Townsfolk, he had picked up a Sword from the Weapons Rack and was training some basic Moves, he wanted to be able to defend his live and that of the other Townsfolk, he may not know them very well, but maybe he could build a new life here with new friends, maybe his constant Nightmares about dying in a terrible Storm or drowning in a swamp would fade with time.

Because if they loose the Cycle every confirmed villager in the pool of dead people is one less suspect. If all 6 kills happen and we win the loop, there are at least 2 elims in 6 people, if they killed confirmed villagers, the pool of suspects would be reduced, meaning its more likely we find the elims. Yes, if they managed to win the cycle there would be less soft cleared villagers but I dont think thats as important because we cannot fully trust the dead form this loop and beyond as there could always be an elim between them. I think if they would go for a cleared villager they would do so N3 when they know what would be more usefull for them less soft cleared villagers or more suspects The people I trust the least for now are Coco, Araris and Mistfallen but thats mostly vibes and the voting results from L1. I also do not trust Doc on principle. For now I think I go with Araris out of my three main suspects purely to get some sort of Train going

It was cold when they left the city throug the North Gate, Wahi had thought about bringing a Weapon but not about something warm to wear, he stayed near the Supply Wagons in case anything happened, he had the feeling the next day would not be uneventfull

No all three os us that died last Loop are vilagers, because for every living elim there needs to be at least 2,5 living villagers for us to win the loop, the elims won the last loop, which means there were less than 2,5 living villagers for every living elim. If one elim died last loop there would be 3 elims, meaning there would need to be less than 7,5 (3x2,5) living villagers, which isnt possible with only three dead people, especially if one of them were an elim so there would only be 2 villager deaths and 10 surviving ones which is langer than 7,5 so we coulnt have lost last loop if we kill an elim, ergo all three of us that died are villagers.

I wouldnt gain anything from lying, If I had the Postmanns Hat, lying about it wouldnt harm you very much but put me in Danger if you go through with your Plan. Lying about Blastmask wouldnt gain me much because it would mean your scheme will kill me as well as one other Person. either way I wouldnt actually harm you in any way so why would I lie?

@Mistfallen Soldier I have neither ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As Wahi heard the explosion he decided to run, there wasnt anything he could do if he stayed and investigated it, so he made his way towards the North gate. He didnt want to be in the Town if anything else started exploding, because being were the explosions were, was generally not good for survival and Wahi wanted to survive (if anyone on their way to the Northgate wants to interact with Wahi go for it)

The village needs at least a times 2,5 parity to win the loop meaning for every elim alive there needs to be 2,5 villagers alive at the end of the Loop. Now the first lines of my two calculations show: Number of surviving elims times 2,5 equals the threshold for our Win, the elims want us lower than that. The second lines of my two calculations show: Number of total villagers minus killed villagers equals maximum number of survivng villagers for an Elim win this loop Hope that helps

If we kill no elim they need 3 kills again: 4 x 2,5 = 10 12 - 3 = 9 If we kill one elim they need 5 kills 3 x 2,5 = 7,5 12 - 5 = 7 @Archer

So there are a lot of People thinking that Mistfallen is village, I have to admit i do not fully trust them, but removing my Vote right now would create a tie with a Stick and therefore kill her (at least if Mist is right, I didnt track Rupees) I do trust Stick more than Mist though, so my Vote stays for now, unless an Option appears were another Person I do no trust would get exed. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- After geting something to eat as well as aquiring a Knife, Wahi walked down a street as he spotted a person that seemed oddly familiar, he was unsure if he should approach them because it seemed like there mood wasnt the best, but decided to approach them anyway. "Hi, I dont want to bother you, but you seem familiar, do we know each other? My memories are a bit fuzzy today, and It seems like I am remembering things that haven happened"

Hi Drake