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Everything posted by Myst
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I won’t know till a bit into loop 3. Things to happen between now and then, and unless they do, it wont matter, in which case I’ll reveal what I was trying to do. And yeah. Nothings happening. No one has much to say, and honestly it might just be a waiting game to see what happens(whether archer triggers blast mask, who the Elims NK, and who wins the loop)
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I’m not sure if I should say this, but if things go to plan… the best scenario might be the third one. If we win and they NK a confirmed villager, that means we have 2+ Elims in a pool of up to 8 people, 1 of which is confirmed village. As for if we lose… there’s reasons I cannot share right now(I’ll explain either when it fails or when it succeeds, which should be sometime in the next irl week at the latest) After all, I may be bluffing, and those are sort of have a time limit before people stop believing them
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Okay yeah, but literally we just have to all agree one person in that 5 person group is village(excluding said people in group’s opinions) Then just use our exes to hit one of the other 4. Even with an mis-exe that’s an ensured 2 Elims dead each loop. And for loop 5, by that time we should be able to tell As for getting bare minimums or posts, fair, I’m generally on top of that(I usually exceed on analysis posts) but there are times I do the same edit: @Archer right now, I believe Doc and I are the only people who even could get it. Burnt maybe could(depending on if she has a mask right now, same for Doc) but she’d have to get all 10 rupees d1C and that’d be noticeable. It’s basically a do you trust me and do I get NK
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Alright, so. We have to make sure we hit someone we think is Elim, otherwise(unless both TJ and Dive are Elim) we lose(I don’t see a reason for the Elims to NK an Elim). Which means I’m basing everything I’m about to say on that there’s only 1 Elim in the dead doc(I’m not going to bother with figuring out who yet) So, excluding Confirmed village, we have: Araris, Coco, Stick, Hael, Doc, Burnt, Archer, Twin. First off, I’m excluding Doc, Archer and Araris. Doc because of my rupee/PM reasons I’ve mentioned a few times, he’s not acting like I’ve see in the three games I’ve seen him as Elim, and his analysis has been helpful. Archer because he’s volunteered for the exe a lot, seems very active on solving. Also, I want to see what happens tonight. If Archer does target, with the black mask calculations I did earlier in the loop, that’s a lot of work extra info for us(this might sound a bit crazy, but optimally, the best scenario for going into loop 3 might be losing this loop, but Archer and Araris blowing up, as we’d be all but certain to win the next three loops)and if it doesn’t explode that’s indicative as well. Either way, I don’t want to exe archer right now. Araris for similar reasons to Archer, I want to see that blast mask happening. So, that leaves us with Coco, Stick, Hael, Burnt, and Twin. Assuming we haven’t already won the loop, that’s a 3/5 or possibly 4/5 chance. So literally voting randomly might result in a loop win. Coco: I’m worried about, as I mentioned, Coco is acting in the same ways that she’s voting people for, but I’m worried here because I misread Wahr, and I don’t want to do that again. Burnt: has been active, also going for rupees like me(I’m not sure if Burnt has been tracking like I have though) I keep switching here. I don’t think we need to exe burnt, if burnt is Elim, there’s like 2 others, and so not dealing with figuring it out is the easiest way right now. The problem with the other three are that they are in various states of activity. Hael seemingly disappeared, I pinged him, and he hasn’t responded. Stick has been gone, but that’s due to Irl stuff, and Twin has just been doing Rp. Out of these three I think Twin is the most suspicious, but I’m hesitant with all three for inactivity reasons. Out of all these, Twin and Coco are the people from each(active and not as much) I’d be willing to exe. As for deciding who I’m going to back to HoidSlayer. He was very inactive for the first part, not paying attention to rules, but winning loop 1 would’ve been a calculated risk from the Elims, and his lack of activity then suggests he wasn’t a part of that. Coco If I’m wrong that’s alright, Archer just has to trigger blast mask and we’re in a good position.
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I saved myself the hassle of worrying about that by deciding Archer was village early, and going off of that. In the case he is Elim, it won’t be too bad as there’s still 3 other Elims to find. But yeah. It’s surprisingly quiet so far, especially considering it’s the last lynch we have till next loop. I’m not sure what it means yet though, I’d have to see what the results of the loop are to know
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Kieran was sitting on the side of the cliff, legs dangling over the egde. He wasn’t sure what to do. Without Ap, Sakon’s expedition to the temple was almost sure to fail. “I really hope that the others were mistaken, that they didn’t see what they thought they did” he paused, “because otherwise we’re screwed” ”Honestly though, it might be better to get to the temple without Sakon, after all, we don’t have Ap, so it might be better to just go ourselves” Kieran got up to go find the others
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I haven’t heard from him for a bit, @Haelbarde whats your reads? Also, my thoughts for now, I can agree that someone in the dead doc is Elim, at least one, if not two. I don’t like the shift that happened with Dive and TJ. Obviously I’d prefer to see the change myself, but unless yall decide I’m suspicious again that’s not happening. Anyways, if anything, there should be a lot more reads and such in the dead doc. Since you’re a confirmed village, they can theorize about this loop without giving the Elims information (I asked About this and the dead Elims can’t talk in the Elim doc while dead) so literally they should be hard-focusing on solving because they can talk about rupees, who has what mask, and all that freely. So I do find the change in Dive and TJ’a behavior suspicious. With your list of order, I personally think Dive is more Elim than TJ right now(when he has the time and was here, TJ was really active and cooperative) So far though, the votes are across Stick, Coco, and Twin. Twin Im not sure about as I’ve only seen him do rp right now, but I also know he’s probably getting used to what’s happening, but he’s not asking questions, unlike Drake, which makes me trust Drake more. Coco has been acting very much like the people she’s been voting, and I would be fine with voting her, but I am slightly worried how I made a similar read on Wahr, and that turned out to be wrong, so I’m not sure what to do here. Stick I don’t want to vote without a defense from her. It’s been almost a day since rollover, and she hasn’t said anything yet. I don’t want to vote her until she says something, as that could be due to irl reasons, and I don’t want to vote her if that’s what’s happening.
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Through the Living Mist? if I change it, it won’t be for a while as I don’t want to confuse the people I’m in a SE game with
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Alright. So nice job TUM, but at this point, I don’t think the Blast mask will trigger this loop. Next loop I recommend someone get it(I had an idea for if I get it, PMing myself to blow up the postmaster. Cause why not, plus all the reasons I laid out when I originally proposed this) Right now, I don’t think Araris would’ve gone for Blast as an Elim, it’s not really that useful as one(unless he was trying to keep it from village) I‘m not sure about Stick right now, and I’d be fine voting her out right. Or Coco, I’d be alright with voting Coco out either, but considering Archer’s already started something on Stick, I think I should join that to see what happens. Stick But if we end up exe-ing Coco I’d be alright with that too. That said, I do think we need to be very intentional, as this is our last chance to make sure we have the required Elims. In the case we lose, we might still have a chance, as that means we end with 10 people alive, 3 of which are confirmed village. And with 3+ are Elim. That means we need to be really careful in who we decide to exe. But in the case of a loss, we will go into loop 3 with a lot of information.
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That sounds both exiting and stressful, good luck. Thanks for the rupee reminder though, I’m one short. ————— *Note, Kieran did not see Ap fall, just heard the explosion, and didn’t see a body, so he assumes Ap was kidnapped. This definitely has nothing to do with me forgetting that everyone thinks Ap died, and then posting an Rp without taking that into consideration Kieran, slowly nodded, thoughts whirling. “Okay, I think we have to go find Ap” “Ap’s the only one who knows where to go, so unless someone has information I’m not aware of, our only option is to go looking for him” Kieran tilted his head at the confused looks everyone was giving him, “What? We need to find Ap, what’s with the looks?” ”Am I missing something?”
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Do you want me to improvise something?
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Kieran watched the people on the cliff. They certainly cared about Ap, though Kieran hadn’t known them very well. The adventure to the temple had certainly been.. something, but he couldn’t understand how they’d formed a bond so quick. What was worrying was the other person up there, Kieran didn’t recognize them. “Hey!” He shouted, “When did you pop into existence?” He though for a scene before continuing, “And right after Ap falls too.”
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Kieran stood still. Not moving All this, and the one person who knew what they were doing and who could fix it… was gone. They didn’t know where or why or… ”What happened? How?” Unfortunately, it wasn’t looking like they’d be able to get Ap back anytime soon. They’d have to go on without for now. ”Well, this is just our luck”
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Another heads up that coco would win a tie. Coco wouldn’t die. Because Araris has the blast mask, even if Coco has a red one, Coco has earned more rupees. Before it was a maybe because Araris might have Bunny, but if he has Blast, then Coco would win the tie. However, you do make some good points. If Araris is telling the truth about Blast, I feel like that indicates Village, and Coco is a fair option right now. So Coco.
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Only you and Wonko would have died if we all PMed you. Yeah, saying this does cut off any chance of it working, unless someone counterclaims. Though, I will say, I don’t see how saying you have the blast mask helps. Now that you’ve said you have it, it’s the same as if we found out by you dying, it’s not relevant either way. Unless someone counterclaims.
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Kieran rubbed his eyes, so many accusations, he didn’t know for sure who was at fault for these past few days, but it didn’t help when everyone kept blaming each other. Looking in the direction of the city, he mumbled, “Maybe it’ll be better this time” the arguing voices hit his ears, “though with what’s been happening so far, I doubt it” ——- Honestly Twin, I don’t think we can…
