luckat

So, I decided to post my final thoughts about the game. 

@The Young Bard Thanks for running this game. You did a great job of keeping it going, despite the problems that came up. I'm glad you have the attitude of learning from this. I hope any future games you run turn out better, and I really think they will. Also, thanks for putting up with me in the dead doc. 

@Doctor12 Thanks for helping run the game too. You did great at making sure it kept going. 

@Darkness Ascendant I am really angry with how you played this game. Between not sending in actions, not checking the doc, and lynching a teammate of your own accord at the end, you really harmed your team and the game as a whole. If you have difficulty accessing or using the doc then you should mention it and workarounds can be found, but if you're just not getting on because you don't feel like it then you need to change that. SE is a team game, and you need to be a team player, especially when you know who your teammates are. People are willing to work with you, but only if you make it possible for them. Aman gave you a lot of trust by giving you his weapon, and you utterly failed to live up to it. If you're not going to work as part of a team and you're not going to send in actions or participate in any docs you are part of, then you shouldn't be playing. 

@Everyone I didn't really enjoy playing this game. JUQ's reveal of me in the doc made me feel forced into playing both sides from the beginning more than I would have liked. Inactivity was rampant, both on my team and on other teams. And there were numerous problems with the mechanics that made it difficult to communicate effectively or use resources well and that ultimately got me killed unfairly. I'm not going to enumerate those problems because I think most people are aware of what they were. 

Inactivity has been a huge problem in SE. Too many people sign up but stop playing partway through. There is nothing the active players can do about the harm done to their team, and yet the same people do it again and again. 

Unbalanced and broken games have also been a big problem. Part of it is that there's too high a concentration of complicated games--GMs tend more toward running their game with all their ideas than running a standard SE game with their flavor. Part of it is that GMs sometimes don't adequately think through all of their mechanics or get enough feedback on them before the game starts, especially when there are hidden mechanics. Part of it is that the games, especially LGs, take so long that a significant problem in one affects a lot of people for a long time. Part of it is just that occasional problems are inevitable, but it's not only that because honestly it seems like problems are the rule rather than the exception. 

I've been trying to play and participate in the community despite all this, hoping the problems would get a bit better. But really, they haven't. It is so frustrating to put weeks of free time and energy into a game only for the result to have more to do with how well the game was put together in the first place or who decided to actually participate than any effort on my part. 

I said this in the dead doc, but SE has become more frustrating than enjoyable for me. I can't keep participating if it's just going to keep getting me worked up without me having any fun. I've had some good times, but at this point it seems like there's been more bad. So I'm going to have to stop playing.

8 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Why don't we kill Luckat? I would really prefer if nobody actually paid the assassins 200 money, and she hasn't been active so far as I can tell.

Hey, I've posted before. 

Like Paranoid King said, it doesn't make a lot of sense to lynch me because of how much the assassins are asking to kill me. I doubt many people have that much money to spend, and that list is more of a guideline than an actual price list anyway, and it's probably outdated since the Advertiser died. I don't see why anyone would want to spend that much on killing a single person anyway when another member of the same faction would do just as well. It's not like it's necessary to completely annihilate other factions, just get them down to only a leader.

I do think it's reasonable to lynch someone who's been inactive, but since it's a faction game how much someone has posted isn't a good measure of activity. If you want to lynch someone who's not active, you should be looking for someone who hasn't been logged on for long periods of time. That means they haven't been sending actions and likely haven't been in their faction doc much and probably aren't very invested in the game. For example, I've noticed that phattemer has been logged off for a few entire turns, so lynching him would probably be good.

This is a really interesting game when it comes to win conditions. What strikes me is that everyone has options. Normal faction members can pick off the members of other factions until only the leaders remain, or they can become the leader of their faction and survive to the end with another faction winning. Monarchists can elect the Monarch, or they can work toward their other win condition, be it faction or independent (although they can't gain the faction leader survival condition). Independents have specific things they have to do, but they can win with almost anyone. So this isn't really a typical faction game where everyone just needs to kill the people not in their faction. While working toward a faction win is the most straightforward thing to do, even members of other factions aren't necessarily enemies.

So the vote looks to be between a bunch of claimed independents and yafeshan. I have nothing against independents, as long as they aren't harming me. In fact, I'd be willing to help them out if they are willing to help me. On the other hand, yafeshan hasn't been on in a cycle, so he probably isn't even sending in orders. Unless there's evidence pointing toward someone not in my faction being a Monarchist (since they are the hardest players to win with) I'd rather vote out an inactive player and have the chance to work with active players.

Here's the current vote tally:

yafeshan (4): Wonko, Araris, Mage, luckat
Aonar (3): Clanky, PK, Nyali
Nyali (2): Stink, Aonar
Silverblade (2): Aman, kiwi
Aman (1): Silverblade

(Mage, I think you missed Silverblade's vote on Aman. )

I've decided I do have time to play, so I'll sign up as Luna. I've been having computer problems though, so I might be stuck on mobile. Sorry about signing up so late. 

3 hours ago, The Only Joe said:

Done. I'll start adding the Links to the SpreadSheet.

Thanks for doing that. 

For any files that are replaced, I think it would be nice if a mod put links to the replacements in the thread where the original files are in addition to in the spreadsheet both because not everyone is going to look in the spreadsheet for the docs if they're reading a game--they might just check the game thread itself--and because supplemental files like GM spreadsheets don't seem to have a place in the spreadsheet but we probably still want them available too.

It's too bad about the MR7 docs. I think the only way we could get them back is if someone else had happened to make backups of them. That's why I'm wondering if it might be a good idea to make backups of the other docs for in case any vanish in the future. I'd be willing to help with that, but I wouldn't want to duplicate work if that's already being done or people don't think it would be useful.

On a slightly different note, I noticed that a few old docs were still open to editing. It's probably not that important since I doubt anyone wants to mess with them, but maybe it would be good if they were changed to view only.

So the Pottermore talk is here.

Pottermore gave me a kingfisher patronus, Hufflepuff, Horned Serpent, and a chestnut wood wand with a unicorn hair core that's 10" with unyielding flexibility. 

I'm not sure what I think of the patronus--I don't really know enough about kingfishers. I am doubtful that the patronus quiz can be very accurate. With the large number of patronus possibilities and the small number of questions asked during the quiz, the result is highly dependent on the question draw, so there must be several patronuses any one person could receive, and several that are impossible to receive without getting the right questions.

Regarding weird Hogwarts House sortings, here's a blog on tumblr that analyzes that quiz. (There's also data from the wand quiz there, which is simpler to understand since it's always the same questions.) The data there is from before an eighth question was added to the quiz for the new site, but it's probably still accurate. The short of it is that it's an okay quiz, but the way only a few questions (of varying quality) of all the possibilities are asked each time means most people can get any House depending on which questions they're asked. Taking the quiz multiple times or looking at how you'd answer all the questions or a selection of the fairer ones gives a more accurate House reading than just taking the quiz once. I took the quiz several times a while ago and got Hufflepuff most often, Ravenclaw next most often, Slytherin less often, and Gryffindor least, if I remember correctly. I'm not sure I agree with Pottermore that I'm more Hufflepuff than Ravenclaw though.

I was looking at some past SE docs and spreadsheets, and I noticed that there were a few that, when opened, showed a message that the file was in the owner's trash and access to the file would soon be permanently lost (I think whenever the owner empties their trash). Specifically, I noticed that happen for most of the games @The Only Joe ran (QF4, LG10, LG14, QF14) and one of the docs in QF17 (the birds doc), which was run by @Amanuensis and @STINK (I don't know who owns the doc in question). I also noticed that the docs from MR7 were no longer available at all, so I suppose there's no way to get those ones back. I didn't check every SE file, so there could be others, but a sample shows most are still around.

So I was wondering if the owners of those files would restore them. I was also wondering if it might be a good idea for someone who for sure won't delete them to make copies of SE files so they won't be lost permanently if anyone wants to go back and read them, particularly ones from GMs who haven't been around in a while (for in case they delete them because they aren't around SE anymore) or who don't want extra files hanging around their Drive.

9 minutes ago, Clanky said:

Interesting. Why did you not say something about being ale to heal me when others were offering? Obviously you wouldn't want somebody else to heal me when you needed to. I'm assuming that your healing power is an assist action correct?

Yes it's an assist action.

As for why I didn't offer to heal you earlier, for one thing, I've been distracted with RL things this turn. I haven't been doing as much talking in the game as I might have liked. For another, it would still count for my win condition if I healed someone at the same time as someone else, so it's not that important that I keep others from healing my target. 

Just now, Clanky said:

May I ask what exactly is required for that win condition? I doubt it is just "Use blowgun once".

I am supposed to poison and cure five different people.

Okay. I'm really frustrated right now for both RL and game-related reasons. So I'll be to-the-point.

Yes, I used a blowgun on Clanky. I have a win condition that requires its use. It makes him sick for now, and would make him poisoned later.

However, I also have a method of healing, which I plan to use on Clanky tonight if I'm still around.

At this point, I'm pretty sure my win condition that requires the blowgun is impossible, so I won't use it anymore and I'm wiling to give it to someone else that the village chooses. I can at least aim for a partial win without it.

I'm not village, but I am willing to help the village with my actions as long as you let me live. I can share the information that I gather and use my actions against whoever you consider most suspicious. Nothing I need to do other than using the blowgun is against the village (and like I said, I won't use it again).

I didn't get attacked either, as far as I know.

Joe's explanation for his attack on PK sounds pretty reasonable to me. So I'm willing to trust him for now, as long as he doesn't go around killing people for little reason.

The lack of an eliminator kill makes me think that (1) they only have a local kill and didn't want one group of people looked at too closely, (2) they only have a limited number of global kills and want to save them, or (3) they were taking into account all their various additional win conditions and either didn't want to kill anyone immediately or couldn't agree on a target. It will probably be easier to tell which of these are more likely once (or if) eliminator kills happen during future cycles.

Clanky's sickness seems strange. It seems like it either comes from someone who has a goal to make a lot of people sick (because doing it the first night seems needless otherwise), or maybe from a negative passive special like Contagious Sickness or something that makes people around someone get sick. I could see something like that coming from Demoux or Galladon or Baon, causing something like the plague at the Purelake.

27 minutes ago, The Young Bard said:

Right now it's a tie between Ecth and Mage. I am in support of a Day 1 lynch, particularly since I can confirm the roles/alignments of dead players, so I will do what I can in order to make sure a Day 1 lynch happens, as it tells us (me in particular) information. For the sake of not appearing to vote change at the last second, I'll say this now. If it remains a tie at rollover, I'll swap my vote from Ecth to Mage. If Ecth pulls ahead, I'll keep my vote where it is. If Mage pulls ahead, I'll swap my vote to Mage in order to be more sure that there won't be vote manipulations to prevent a lynch. Mage, I'm sorry if you get lynched because of me, but it's the most logical choice available to me.

I still think no lynch is a better idea on the whole because I don't want to risk lynching someone who might be part of my win condition, we can't necessarily trust you, and I don't think lynching either a neutral or someone with only mild suspicion on them is a good idea at this point. Especially when it seems like most people want no lynch.

10 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

Sorry if this seems like a last-minute vote change. I thought rollover was in 2.5 more hours for some reason. Straw Magestar

Why? Because I'd rather not get lynched

We're not trying to lynch you. We're trying to tie it up when it's not likely there will be any vote manipulation. So I'm going to vote for Ecthelion to try to get the tie back on track.

Vote Tally:
Mage (6): Araris, Joe, Sheep, Stink, Straw, Ecth
Ecth (5): Bard, Doctor, Mage, PK, luckat
Stink (1): Elenion
PK (1): Rae
Joe (1): Silverblade
Aman (1): Darkness Ascendant
Silverblade (1): Wilson

It will be a tie if Joe retracts his vote like he said he would if Aman did.

Both Ecthelion and Frozen Mint missed Aman's retraction

18 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I've noticed a few others who would prefer to not act rashly. If you agree with Lily and I, please help instigate a tie. There's only four and a half hours left before the sun sets, and personally I'd rather us not shed any blood with so little evidence to support it and potentially no information to gain.

I think the turn ends at 10pm EST, despite what the countdown timer says, so we only have about two hours. I'd prefer it if people removed their votes so everyone has two or fewer, but I'd be willing to help tie it up if people don't want to remove their votes. We'd need a few more people to do it with things as they stand. I think it's possible that there are passives or free actions that could change the vote count, but most vote manipulation probably would come from actives used the night before so we don't have to worry about it today.

Okay, this Day 1 thread has been really active. I've been trying to stay caught up, but I've skimmed more than read more than I'd like. So first I'll comment on a few things.

14 hours ago, The Young Bard said:

Now, I'm fairly certain that one of the Independents or the person claiming the Non-Eliminator Faction is lying, and is secretly part of Rayse's gang. Which still means we have a 2:1:3 Village: Eliminator: Neutral Ratio, which is extraordinarily biased towards the Eliminators.

Do you have any particular reason you're suspicious of those two people, or are you just assuming there's probably an eliminator on your world and picking those two as the most likely? Because if it's the latter, it could be possible both are telling the truth and the ratio is 2:0:4 Village:Eliminator:Neutral for your world (and other worlds are probably different). I'm not sure how likely it is, especially without knowing who you are talking about and what makes them suspicious, but it's something to consider.

12 hours ago, STINK said:

Btw, who was the first person to say Child that everyone knows? For me, the first person that actually said 'Child' referring to alignment was Joe.

Joe is the first one I saw it from in the thread or my world PM. It sounds like someone in Bard's PM might have said it before Joe though. The timing and details of that might determine how plausible it is that the one on Bard's world could have influenced Joe. 

5 hours ago, AliasSheep said:

Well, from the Common Powers, most of the kills I can see are for Player(local), so I imagine that's more likely; that being said, a cross-world kill could definitely be a hidden ability.

The eliminator kill is one ability I'd expect to be for Player (all) instead of Player (local). Other suspicious actions can probably be tracked by world, but it's probably not good to assume their kills can. It seems like when eliminator kills have been influenced by something like worlds in past games the eliminators have found it really claustrophobic.

3 hours ago, Clanky said:

For people that have played with Magestar before, is it usual to have this many random statements of innocence? It just seems to me like someone trying to act as far from an eliminator as possible and making sure everybody knows it.

I don't remember random statements of innocence exactly in LG25, but there were times he tried to look villagery without being really helpful. He also was a bit too quick to bandwagon there. I think he's acting pretty typical for him in this game. Granted, he might do the same as an eliminator, but I agree with Aman that he really sounds a lot more like a member of a neutral faction than one of God's Own Hate.

2 hours ago, Arraenae said:

Magestar, what odd things has Straw done in your world PM?

@Magestar I'd also be interested to know about this if you can give more specific information. If there's a legitimate reason to suspect him, that's something the thread should discuss.

And now for lynch discussion. I'm going to start this out by saying I'm not even sure we should lynch someone the first day. We've had a lot of good discussion today that doesn't even have to do with the lynch. While we usually want to lynch the first day to get information about the players involved, that doesn't work when nothing about the lynchee is revealed. It doesn't get us any information, which is the thing we most desperately need right now. I think we'll do better gathering information with night actions. Also, I don't want to accidentally lynch someone who I need alive for one of my win conditions. It is entirely possible someone like that could be an Independent or otherwise neutral. So I think it is best to use the lynch with precision in this game.

So on to the lynch conversation. To start out, here's a current vote tally (even though it hasn't changed much since the last one):

Mage (4): Araris, Joe, Sheep, Stink
Ecth (2): Bard, Aman
Stink (1): Elenion
PK (1): Rae
Straw (1): Ecth
Rae (1): PK
Joe (1): Silverblade
Aman (1): Darkness
Silverblade (1): Wilson

I do not want to lynch Stink. He has been contributing to the thread and trying to get discussion going. I also don't feel like he's really been suspicious. I'm glad to see that most of the votes have been removed from him.

Mage has the most votes right now. The reasons seem to be that (1) he has made it clear that he is not a villager and (2) he endorsed bandwagoning.

For (1), while it is clear that he is not a villager, it seems unlikely that he's an eliminator. Being neutral would be a reasonable reason to lynch him if we had to lynch someone so we at least know we're not lynching a Child, but we don't have to. So that's not a reason to lynch him as long as he isn't ditching neutrality to work for Odium.

For (2), this one is trickier. The thing is, making sure all the villagers were voting on the same person at the end of the day was very important in LG25 due to all their vote manipulation. Having just come off that game, I can see why Mage thought that was a good idea. (I'm actually going to feel a bit bad if he gets lynched for trying to follow a strategy that I pushed for in a previous game.) I hope he has realized from the responses to him that he shouldn't be using that strategy in this game. If he's going to vote reasonably and try to help find Rayse and his allies, there's no reason to lynch him.

If we're going to lynch someone, I'd prefer it to be a member of God's Own Hate. Of those with votes I think Ecth or Silverblade would be our best bet. But I'm not strongly suspicious of either of them (I'm mostly just suspicious because based on what people have said it seems they voted on villagers), so I really think no lynch is the best choice for this cycle. Lynching the wrong person, even a neutral, could be bad for some villagers this game, so I want to approach the lynch with caution.

5 hours ago, Nyali said:

... and I now have 32 roles done, just in case someone decides to try and surprise me <.<

Surprise! Oh wait, you're not surprised.... (Sorry about waiting until close to the last minute though.)

I was thinking about taking a short break after the last game, but I should have time for this one. Also, the rules are too well written and the idea of individualized win conditions is too interesting for me to pass this one up. So I'd like to join as Lily. Just be warned that I won't be super active. 

Elbereth and Joe, thanks for running this game! I really enjoyed it. I feel like I did better than usual this game. It was fun to work out how all the mechanics fit together. It was also fun to be an eliminator since I haven't been one very often, even if it was only for one turn.

Great job to Doctor, Frozen Mint, Dalinar, Assassin, and Daniyah for an excellent first game. All of you did well, and I hope to see you all in future games.

And also great job to the Returned for getting us into a winning position despite all my work to the contrary. 

22 hours ago, Doctor12 said:

Well that was intense, honestly,  and kind of fun even though luck played me spectacularly. Signing up for the next game, no question. 

17 hours ago, Magestar said:

Luckat, I must say, magnificent job.  I had no idea you were an Elim.

Well, I was only Returned for the very last day, so there wasn't much chance for you to figure me out.

(It would have been funny if both kills the last night had gone through because then I would have ended the game as a Returned without spending any time in the game itself as a Returned.)

On 9/6/2016 at 4:17 AM, Magestar said:

Ok, we need to lynch Sheep.  I think he is the last Elim, maybe there is another innactive.  Frozen, I would like to publicly apologize for gunning for you this whole game.  Oops.  

13 hours ago, Magestar said:

Bold mine.  I don't think that he is the last Elim, I think that he is probably one of the last two active Elim's.  There might be more innactives;  I don't know.  A big problem is not knowing who has been having there breath stolen.  So, there could be a few innactive 'Potential Returned' turned Returned by now.  It would be nice if we had more active players.  

Right. There you go contradicting what you said earlier. As I already laid out, we know there have to be at least 3 active eliminators from all the actions they have taken. (They could be lurking/not posting, but they're at least active enough to send in actions.) You're being misleading about what we know about the Returned, almost as if you don't want anyone to go searching too closely for the Rabbits. You bring up the idea that maybe two of the vote cancelations came from Sheep, but if they did, Sheep can't have a Rabbit. We are in a tight situation. We need to take out a Rabbit.

Between this and the way you've been trying to steer bandwagons and stall extra votes, I feel like you've been trying to keep the lynch away from your partners and making yourself too active for us to reasonably lynch. And it is revealing that you only have one Clothing and keep leaving one action open for the night. There's no way for us to trust that you really won the Lottery. Honestly, you're my best bet for having a Rabbit.

7 hours ago, Metacognition said:

You know, overall, I'm flattered that you think I could be such a mastermind as to think 3-4 turns ahead of time and know what kind of situations would come up and thus be able to plan for them as early as Day 2. Cause that would be what would need to happen for me to be a Returned at this point. I would need to know that the Returned's plan with Mark would fail and then buss Ecthelion and Lopen (whom I was one of the first people to vote for him, remember?). During all this, I go out of my way to make myself suspicious by calling for Mark's death and attacking people who will be looked at favorably after the results come in. And I would do all this and know that all this was going to happen just so I could make the claim that I would have to have been a pretty horrible Eliminator to do all of those things. 
Like I said, I'm flattered, but sorry, I'm not even close to that omniscient. In fact, the only reason I think that I'm still alive is due to how off a lot of my reads have been! My only good read was catching Lopen and that was mainly based on gut after finding out about Mark. 

You're right about voting on Lopen. And, hmm. The more I think about it, I might just be trying to come up with a narrative that kind of makes sense instead of following actual clues. I still have a bad feeling about you, but I'm less and less sure that's a feeling that should be followed. Either way, the idea that you have a Rabbit doesn't make much sense.

And now there's been a pileup on both Meta and Magestar. The both seem suspicious to me. But overall I think Magestar is more suspicious than Meta. And he's more likely to have a Rabbit. So that's where my vote will go for now.

Vote Tally:
Magestar (4): Sheep, Meta, Assassin, Luckat2
Meta (3): Luckat1, Straw2, Doctor2, Magestar2
Sheep (0): Doctor1, Magestar1, Straw1

No Vote: Elodin, Daniyah, Bard

@Master Elodin @Daniyah @The Young Bard Make sure you all vote. We don't want the vote to be this close.

I'm sorry about taking so long to post. I ended up being busier than I thought I'd be. Hopefully everything I say makes sense. And I hope everyone else who hasn't posted yet will post soon.

Here’s the notable things that happened in the writeup:

• There were no Drab deaths.
• There were two Rabbit attacks again: one on Frozen Mint and one on Doctor.
• The attack on Doctor was blocked by a Lifeless.
• There was no Breath stolen.

Since there were no Drab deaths, then whoever had their Breath stolen last time either won the Lottery or Returned. Since they haven’t come forward, however, that doesn’t do us much good. If anyone knows of any Potential Returned, it could be good to keep an eye on them.

A WGG seems really unlikely when the eliminators wouldn’t have much other use for a Lifeless, and I’ve felt like I could trust Doctor for most of the game, so it is really unlikely Doctor is Returned. Hopefully whoever protected him has contacted him by now so they can coordinate easily in the future.

There’s a few possibilities that can lead to no Breath being stolen in the writeup.

1. A Lifeless protected the target. If anyone used a Lifeless on someone other than Doctor last night and were notified that they blocked an attack, they should contact their target because that must have been the person who the Returned tried stealing Breath from.
2. A Rope was used on whoever tried to steal Breath. If no one comes forward as having been protected by a Lifeless, then anyone who used a Rope last night might want to come forward because they could have blocked the Breath theft.
3. It’s possible the Returned didn’t send in an order for whatever reason.
4. In general, there’s also the possibility that they tried to steal Breath from someone who was already dead (from the Drab assassin), but given there were no Drab deaths that’s not possible in this case.

Since there were two Rabbit attacks combined with the three uses of Clothing to protect Sheep (assuming Magestar’s blocking of Meta’s vote was from a villager), the Returned appear to have used 5 actions during Cycle 5 (leaving 1 for the missing Breath stealing). That means there were at least 3 Returned active during Cycle 5. If someone Returned last night, there are now at least 4. That leaves our numbers at probably 7-3 or 6-4. That’s really close, especially when the Returned have 3 attacks each night (2 immediate and 1 delayed) and the power to cancel 3 of our votes. And that’s not even including how many inactives there are. If I’m right about Daniyah and Elodin being village but not paying attention, those numbers might as well be 5-3 or 4-4. So we really need to stop some of those attacks, and we need everyone to vote. If we lynch a Returned without a Rabbit and both attacks go through tomorrow, our effective numbers will be at 3-2 or even 2-3. It’s too tight to make a mistake at this point, and even lynching a less powerful Returned might be a mistake.

Because of that, we really need to find out where the Rabbit kills are coming from. The only person we can be reasonably sure they’re not coming from is Elodin (since he’s been inactive on nights the Rabbit holders would have had to send in actions). So I’m going to go through who might have a Rabbit.

• Doctor is almost certainly a villager.
• I think Bard is a villager, or at least started as a villager. His last-minute vote on Alex last cycle is making me question that assessment, although since it wasn’t actually necessary from the Returned’s point of view and a Rabbit holder wouldn’t want to draw attention to themselves like that I doubt he has a Rabbit.
• Daniyah has given me every impression that she isn’t paying enough attention to be sending in actions.
• Sheep, Straw, and Assassin all seem to be paying enough attention to the game to be sending in actions if they are eliminators, and they all seem to have been trying to avoid attention. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them had a Rabbit.
• I don’t know much about what actions Meta has been taking, and if he did have a Rabbit he wouldn’t be able to slip back and hope to hide the way others might.
• Magestar has been openly using a single piece of Clothing. However, that could be leaving him open to still use an action for a Rabbit. While he hasn’t hung back, he doesn’t seem like the type to.

Sheep is the obvious choice after last cycle’s lynch, but I think that’s too obvious. If none of the other players who had votes on them were eliminators (and I don’t think any of them were), the Returned were free to mess with the lynch however they wanted without risking any of their own. They could be trying to get us to mislynch like they did with Mark, and I think at this point one mislynch will cost us the game.

Honestly, the player I’m most wary of at this point is Meta. I’ve felt like something is off about him all game. When he was accusing Mark, trying to convince us that they saved him because Mark was the Rabbit holder the way he brought it up was as if he specifically had the Rabbit on his mind, which would make a lot more sense if he was the one with the Rabbit. Also, when he voted for Alex last turn, it seems as if he was following me onto that vote, like siding with someone who most people seem to have trusted would get him more trusted. I feel like it’s likely Meta has a Rabbit, and if not at the very least he seems like their strategist. Not many people would be able to pull off a plan that involved framing a villager with vote blocks. He did say before that he thought the Returned’s plan with Mark was wonky, but what better way to defend yourself than claim a plan you were involved in is incomprehensible? He certainly seemed quick to try to shift blame on me for suggesting people use clothing in the first place--almost as if that was a second reason for the plan (that whole post accusing me seemed odd, honestly). 

My suspicions on Meta might be more gut than logic, but I can’t shake them so I’m going to put my vote on him for now.

Although something about the way Mage bandwagoned last turn is also making me wary. He seemed to be trying to get someone killed without having to contribute any reasoning. Some of the comments he made about Sheep were almost like he was trying to get us not to lynch him without actually making the move himself. And there were other times when it seemed like he knew Sheep was an eliminator--or at least that Sheep would be implicated as an eliminator when the votes and Clothing were all in.

23 hours ago, Magestar said:

Woah.  It worked.  

DEM JUKES Y'ALL.

Ok, we need to lynch Sheep.  I think he is the last Elim, maybe there is another innactive.  Frozen, I would like to publicly apologize for gunning for you this whole game.  Oops.  

After we lynch Sheep... I really hope he is the last Elim.  I think that if he is not, we're screwed.  He at least has to be an Elim, for us to win.  IF there is another Elim, which seems likely, then we will have problems.

Mage, it’s almost like you’re trying to lull us into a false sense of security here. There is not only one Returned left unless all the anti-village actions have come from secretive villagers.

Vote Tally:
Sheep (3): Doctor, Magestar, Straw
Magestar (1): Sheep
Meta (1): luckat

No Vote: Burgundy, Elodin, Daniyah, Meta, Bard

57 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Guys, this looks pretty bad.  Frozen, you seem like you are trying to turn the lynch off of an Elim, which is a bad move.  You have voted on other Elims before, but I doubt that there are many left now.  I would not be surprised if you and Sheep are the last two.

@Doctor12, would you mind taking your vote off Alex?  We need to solidify the Sheep lynch.  If I'm wrong, then I'll be very angry, but I think that it's unlikely Alex is an Elim, although that might explain a lot. 

You know what, I'll just leave you guys to it.  But if Alex is a villager, I would suggest lynching Sheep next round.  I know that will kill lynch discussion, but honestly, we have had almost no lynch discussion anyway.

How is it bad for Frozen Mint and Sheep to vote for their suspicions when there's still a few hours left in the day? At least they gave reasons, unlike when you and Straw jumped on my vote for Sheep well before it was necessary to solidify the vote. That almost looked like trying to get a bandwagon started on a villager before too many votes gathered on an eliminator.

Also, why do you want to lynch Sheep so much when earlier you said this about Sheep?

1 hour ago, Magestar said:

Sorry.  I hope your an Elim, although I doubt it now.

It's like you inexplicably thought Sheep was the only option for the lynch instead of trying to decide who you thought was most suspicious.

Frozen Mint did bring up a good point about how Sheep was only suspicious of the person other than himself who looked most likely to be lynched, but I'm not sure how much her vote on Alex really could have influenced him when he posted only seven minutes after she did. Also, the fact that he shared his thoughts and explained why he had been silent are points in his favor.

Personally, I now think Alex's strange post is somewhat more suspicious than what Sheep has done so far (and I also think Mage's attempts to get the lynch on Sheep instead are suspicious), so I'll put my vote there. Sheep. Alex. If the village collectively decides to lynch someone else, I'll change my vote before the turn is over.

Vote Tally:
Frozen Mint (0): Magestar1
Alex (3): Doctor, Frozen Mint1, Sheep, luckat2
Doctor (1): Meta
Sheep (3): luckat1, Magestar2, Straw, Frozen Mint2

No Vote: Assassin in Burgundy, Alex, Elodin, Daniyah, Bard

Sorry about taking so long to post. I’ve been busy, and I’ve also been trying to figure out what to do after seeing two Rabbit kills.

So there were two Rabbit kills, and no one died from losing their Breath. The Rabbits probably both belong to the Returned because neither Conq nor Dalinar seemed like the top picks for a villager to kill and the Returned have more opportunities to get enough Breath for Rabbits. We can’t know whether the person who lost their Breath last time won the Lottery or Returned, and without knowing who it is we can’t do much about it except keep in mind that it’s possible that someone who has been a villager up to this point is an eliminator now (although at least they can’t be one of the ones with a Rabbit).

We know from cycle two that there’s at least two more Returned. Only two more players can account for all the actions they’ve taken that we know about, I believe, although it implies they haven’t done much besides what we’ve seen. I doubt that’s all of them because I think they would have been less willing to show so much power if that was all they had and I don’t think Lopen would have been so willing to do something that was so obviously suspicious if he was one of only a few, especially since with his Clothing he could have changed the lynch back to Mark at the last minute without changing his vote. I’m worried that they tried to get us to mislynch Mark because only a few more mislynches would lead to our downfall.

We really need to find who has the Rabbits before they get our numbers down further. I expect that whoever has a Rabbit has been hanging back, trying not to draw attention to themselves.

I started PMs with most of the inactives/lurkers over the last couple of cycles to try to get some kind of read on them:

• I got the impression that Daniyah really isn’t paying much attention to the game, which makes me think she’s a villager, albeit an unhelpful one.
• Elodin got on for the first time in a few turns to respond to my PM. He said he doesn’t have time for SE right now, and he didn’t respond to my followup message. My tabs on his activity show that he can’t be the first Rabbit holder because he was off during N2 and N3 when the first Rabbit holder was active, and he’s really unlikely to be the second one because the second one probably made their Rabbit during N2 or N3. He could have been responsible for some of the vote blocking, but I don’t really think he’s an eliminator this game.
• Alex never looked at my PM, even when he got on to post during the night. That post was really weird, particularly considering he doesn’t appear to be paying enough attention to the game to know who is Returned, and he if he really knew Lopen was Returned, he should have voted. I feel like he fits the profile of someone trying to avoid attention. He wasn’t on at all during Night 2, so he can’t be the first Rabbit holder, but it is possible that he is the second one.
• Sheep started off by saying that he’s been reading the doc. That might have been a slip up, although he might have just had the MR16 spec doc on his mind since we’re both in that and he’s been quiet there too. He also said he’d try to post, although he hasn’t yet. What’s odd is that he was active during the first couple of cycles, but then he stopped posting altogether. I wonder if maybe we should have followed up on Bugsy’s suspicions of Sheep.
• Assassin in Burgundy was the most responsive of those I PMed, not that that’s saying much. He made some weird comments, like that he felt like I might be a Returned trying to find out how dangerous the new players are and that he was pretty sure he wasn’t a Potential Returned even though he’d never had a Strawman to check. I’m not sure if those are really suspicious though. I feel like he’s been paying more attention to the game than his post count implies (but at least he voted last cycle). It could just be that he’s more comfortable talking in PMs, but it could be that he’s trying to avoid attention.
• I didn’t start a PM with Straw, so I don’t have additional comments about him. I probably should try to talk to him...

So of these, my top suspicions are Alex, Sheep, and Assassin in Burgundy. Alex already has a vote on him (and of the three I think he’s least likely to be paying attention), so I’ll vote for Sheep. I really hope they respond so we can get better reads on them.

I’m also going to quickly go over my thoughts on the active players:

• I have a gut trust of Frozen Mint, Doctor, and Bard. It’s possible one of them Returned last night, but I don’t think any of them started out as Returned.
• There’s a few things Meta has said that have made me a bit suspicious, but my suspicions aren’t strong enough to do anything more than watch him more closely, and we really shouldn’t lynch him because he’s trying to lead conversation.
• I’m getting mixed reads on Magestar. Several people have thought he has been suspicious, and I can see where they’re coming from. He has shown that he has Clothing and has openly used it twice recently. He could have been one of the players who saved Mark. If he is a Returned, that puts the public Returned action count for cycle 4 at 5 + the two Lopen used, so there’s have to be at least 3 Returned left who have been Returned all game.

I think Magestar is the most suspicious of the active players. However, I think a lynch on an inactive is best this turn if we can decide on one that is most suspicious.

Vote Tally:
Frozen Mint (1): Magestar
Alex (1): Doctor
Doctor (1): Meta
Sheep (1): luckat

No Vote: Assassin in Burgundy, Alex, Elodin, Sheep, Straw, Daniyah, Frozen Mint, Bard

15 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Luckat, I know you suspect me for my vote switch from Mark to Araris, but why would I have done that to save Ecthelion, who at that point, would probably have been considered a lost cause? Ecthelion was a Returned. Almost definitely because he was a Potential Returned. So, if Potential Returned are scanned as such even after they've turned, all it would take is for him to be scanned, and he'd be lynched/Rabbit killed, because he'd revealed he'd had his Breath stolen. I said I wanted him to be scanned to check him. My vote was placed in a way that places suspicion on me, because of how the votes ended up at the end of the Day and Ecth and Mark's alignments. But I'm not a Returned.

The save was subtle enough that you might have thought you wouldn't get suspicion for it. In addition, he was only in danger that lynch because of the vote manipulation the Returned had done. I think you planned to save Mark earlier in the cycle to cast suspicion on him, but when it turned out the lynch was close to falling on one of your own, you did what you could to prevent it. Sure there was the danger of him being scanned, but you couldn't be sure it would actually happen. 

14 hours ago, Metacognition said:

I truly thought that Mark was a Returned. It's the only thing that made sense to me. As PK pointed out, there just wasn't any reason for them to alert us to the fact that they had all of that voting power (not to mention a rough estimate of their numbers). They could have saved that for when one of their own was up for the lynch and then we would've been scrambling to figure out how to counter the vote negates, as we did this time. Instead, we were prepared for it and we found and lynched Ecthelion because of it. So someone explain how this master plan by the Returned was supposed to make sense in any other way? Even if we had gone after Mark first, we would've been back to Ecthelion soon enough and been prepared to make sure our lynch would go through. 

Beyond that, PK was one of us that wanted to go after Mark and he wound up dead. Which to me, looked like them trying to silence someone that was talking sense. 

If anything, I'd say that I've been too vocal about wanting to lynch Mark for it to make sense for me to be Returned. If Mark hadn't died, I would've still been pushing for his lynch this turn because the logic behind what happened is just too wonky, even knowing that it's true. 

Here's what happened, IMO, and it's the only thing that I think makes sense of this craziness: I had a fairly strong case for Mark on Day 2. Since he wasn't a Returned, the Returned decided to take advantage of it. The idea being that they'd get Mark lynched and then everyone would turn on me for targeting Mark. What they forgot to account for was the votes on Ecthelion and they needed to make some last minute changes. Thus why Lopen wound up switching his vote so late in the Day. His vote change and the negation on one of Ecthelion's votes took it from a tie between Araris and Ecthelion to Araris getting lynched. I think they waited as long as they could for someone else to break that tie and when no one else did, they needed to do it themselves. 

Yeah, the whole saving Mark plan was weird. I almost wonder if the Returned were confident enough that they only needed a few mislynches to win. I do think it sounds like you were trying to push the earlier Returned plan along, but I can also see a villager doing that. I'm just not sure.

I'm still suspicious of Meta, but I think I'm more suspicious of Lopen right now. At the very least, the evidence against Lopen is more solid. Also, I don't feel comfortable with it looking like there's a majority on Meta when really it seems like there's a fairly equal amount of suspicion on both him and Lopen.

Vote Tally

Lopen (2): Meta, luckat2
Meta (2): luckat1, Lopen, Mage
Doctor (1): Burgundy
Mage (1): Bard

I get a sense that a lot of players are holding back until their votes are needed. Yes we need to make sure

Regarding Marks’s death, he gave me information about it for in case it happened. Mark Awakened a Lifeless on Night 2, but at the time he had only 5 Breath. Unfortunately, that made him a Drab and put him at risk of dying. He said he was going to enter the Lottery last night and hope he won, but it appears he didn’t. That’s why he died. So we don’t have to spend extra time wondering what happened.

That means Silver Dragon--another inactive--must have been the one who had his Breath stolen Night 2.

Right now I have two main suspects: Lopen and Meta.

As I mentioned last cycle, Lopen was implicated in the Day 2 lynch every bit as much as Ecthelion, especially when we consider that he essentially protected Ecthelion, a now confirmed Returned. Lopen turned the lynch in favor of a villager while also protecting a Returned and aiding the Returned in their implication of another villager. I have a hard time seeing that as a village action.

Meta, on the other hand, pressed hard for Mark’s lynch last cycle and tried to keep the lynch away from Ecthelion. He insisted that Mark was the Returned with the Rabbit in order to get us to lynch him. Knowing now that Mark was a villager, Meta’s efforts sound a lot him trying to complement the earlier vote manipulation misdirection. The village wasn’t falling for their bait, so he tried to nudge us toward it.

For now, I’m going to place a vote on Meta. I want to hear what everyone else thinks. Also we need to make sure we all decide on a final target to prevent vote manipulation again this cycle. I’ll change my vote to the majority near the end of the cycle if necessary.

Also, the number of village deaths is getting worrying. The eliminators are able to take out two of us each cycle, if they don’t convert one of us, while we can only lynch one at a time. Even if we are always correct in our lynches, our numbers are only going to get closer and closer. We need everyone to be active. We might want to start coordinating night actions with people we trust. We need to make good use of Ropes and Lifeless to keep our numbers from dwindling too fast.

Vote Tally:
Ecthelion (11): luckat, Frozen Mint, Dalinar, Conq, Twei, Magestar2, Straw, Bard, Doctor3, Meta2, Lopen
Mark (1): Meta1, Ecthelion2, Doctor2
Meta (1): Mark
Mint (0): Magestar1
Bard (0): Ecthelion1
Lopen (0): Doctor1

No Vote: Burgundy, Alex, SD, Elodin, Sheep, Daniyah
 

Okay, there’s just a little bit of the day left, and it looks like we’ve consolidated the votes pretty well. Let's make sure we get it at least this good in the future. I'm a bit worried about the people who haven't voted and the lingering votes on others. The Returned showed us last cycle that they could block 5 votes while still having actions open for stealing Breath and using an Awakened Rabbit. That means they have at least 8 action slots as a group (4 members), and it's possible they have more. If they were willing to forgo their night attacks, they would have even more control over the lynch than before.

Also, I’m actually a bit disappointed at how many people leapt on my vote just to pile on early on. While we do need to make sure to have enough votes on someone to keep the Returned from controlling the lynch, and we shouldn’t have extra votes for the Returned to change it to when the day ends, I’d hoped there would be more discussion early on. We can still place votes normally early on, as long as we remember to change them before the day ends.

23 hours ago, Metacognition said:

Sidenote: Luckat, how are you so sure that Deathclutch was the target and Silverblade gave up their breath? It seems to me that it could just as easily be the other way around and that you know more than you're letting on here. 

EDIT: 
I also found this while going back through the game: 

Considering that we now know that it was either Silverblade or Deathclutch, is it just me or does Luckat seem to be fairly omniscient so far this game? Like far more than she has any right to be. 

As Twei explained, it’s not a leap to come to the conclusion that DC was the one targeted by the Returned. He hasn’t been on since 20 minutes into Night 0, and he would have had to send in an order Day 2 to die from it Night 2. So the Returned are the only way he could have become Drab. I sort of mentioned it when I brought it up, but I guess not very clearly.

For the second, I noticed that no one had claimed to lose their Breath, I listed the possible reasons why, and one of the two turned out to be correct. I don’t see how that’s “omniscient”. Can you think of any other reasons it wouldn’t be mentioned than because the target is inactive or because they are choosing not to?

5 hours ago, Mark IV said:

Because I don't find ecth suspicious at all. I know my vote won't make a difference, but atleast this way,  people will remember that I voted for Meta,  rather than remain non-committal about it. One lesson I learned it's that a vote still has power, no matter how insignificant it may seem. You need only look to D2 for proof. All the votes that didn't seem to matter in face of the four voted on me suddenly were the ones that mattered. 

Your vote can make a difference. As the last vote showed us, even one vote on a person can make a difference, especially if the Returned are willing to add a vote at the last minute. While it would be good to see more voting early in the cycle, we can’t afford to leave extra votes on people at the end of the day.

I don't have a lot of time right now, and I'm probably not going to be on again today. I should be on tomorrow for the end of the day cycle, and I'll be able to change my vote if necessary.

First, after all the vote manipulation last cycle, it is really important for us to be careful with our votes. Even one stray vote can lead to a lynch on someone we don't want, and we'll need a lot of votes (at least six) to even guarantee one stays on our targets. So we'll need to put together a solid lynch on an agreed upon target well before the turn ends. We'll need everyone to work together for that.

Second, there were two drab deaths. I believe the only ways someone can become a drab are by 1) having Breath stolen; 2) giving away Breath; 3) awakening the wrong item; or 4) consuming Breath as a Returned. There can only be one Breath theft each night, so the second one must have died for a different reason. Non-Returned don't consume Breath. Neither player died with an item (Elbereth told me players who died would have their awakened items revealed), and the death would have occurred before they had a chance to retrieve the Breath. Therefore one of the two must have given away their Breath to someone. Deathclutch hasn't been on since right about when the game started, so he hasn't been sending in orders. This tells us two things. First, Deathclutch must have had his Breath stolen Night 1. Either the Returned dislike inactives or they figure someone who isn't paying attention is more likely to have more Breath since they haven't been awakening. This could give us a clue as to who lost their Breath this time. Second, Silverblade gave up his Breath to someone for some reason, although I don't know who it could have been.

Third, I think the most recent lynch deserves some good discussion. It was a clear use of Eliminator power, which can give us some leads on their plans and their membership. Here's the vote tally (strikethroughs indicate uses of Awakened Clothing):

Araris (2) Paranoid King, Lopen
Magestar (1) Araris 
Ecthelion (1) Conquestor, Bard
Mark (0) Meta, Magestar, Twei, Dalinar

Two things stick out--Mark was saved by a rather obvious vote manipulation display, and Araris was chosen out of the two players who had two votes to die. This is especially interesting because the Returned initially tried to kill Ecthelion Night 0, and the suspicion of Araris seemed more substantiated to me.

However, looking at this vote tally in isolation does not give the complete picture. Another very interesting thing happened shortly before the turn ended: while the vote seemed like it was solidified for Mark with Ecthelion in a distant second, only 40 minutes before day's end Lopen changed his vote for Mark to Araris. If he hadn't and the vote blocking had been the same, this is what the vote would have looked like:

Araris (1) Lopen
Magestar (1) Araris 
Ecthelion (1) Conquestor, Bard
Mark (1) Lopen, Meta, Magestar, Twei, Dalinar

A 4-way tie with one vote apiece. Unless all four of those players are villagers, I can't see the Returned planning for the vote to look like this. If they're saving Mark or trying to make him look bad, why not remove the last vote on him, and why remove the vote from Ecthelion if he could be lynched? In fact, I think it is most likely that they either reacted to Lopen's vote or planned with him to make that vote. Putting this entire plan together as a reaction to Lopen's vote seems unlikely given the short time frame, although I suppose it is possible they were hoping for a villager to change the vote at the last minute. It's more likely Lopen was in on it. It makes him look suspicious, which he'd know, but perhaps they thought it made him look too suspicious to be an eliminator.

But I want to go back to who was saved. Mark was obviously saved. I'm not sure if that was misdirection or because he has a powerful item--they seem to have played a lot of their hand to protect him. However, I'd like to look more closely at the person who was more subtly saved: Ecthelion. The Returned could have let him die instead of Mark, or instead of Araris, but they didn't. Why? I think it is because he is now one of them. Unless someone comes forward with a Strawman scan that says he's not a Potential Returned, this is where my vote will go for now. Although I'll make sure to change it if the villager as a whole is going in a different direction.

6 minutes ago, The Young Bard said:

From the rules - it specifically says "Turn", not "Cycle". So Drab kills come with the Day and Night Cycles. Ecth should have died at the end of Day 1, before he could ever have entered the Lottery.

It's stated rather unclearly there. Initially, I believe it said cycle, and it was changed to something that was equally unclear. Drab death doesn't occur after a full turn or a full cycle. The actual rule is in the clarifications post below the rules:

Quote

9. If you are a drab at the point in the OoA when drab death occurs during the night, you will die (regardless of how long you have been drab). 

The order of actions for the day is given here:

There's no mention of Drab death there. Drab death always occurs at night.