NH2316

This certainly seems more likely than Ishar having seen/visited/gotten confused by alternate timelines. But... don't bondsmiths (or at least Dalinar) need to establish physical touch to see another persons' full web of Connections (RoW ch.66)? So I don't know if he could see Dalinar's connections here. That may just be Dalinar, and bondsmith powers are decidedly the most varied between individuals of the order, and Ishar being powered by the Honorblade instead of the Stormfather's bond could mean the difference. Regardless, I wonder if it's' even simpler than that. The way I read that passage is that Ishar's seemingly boundless paranoia and insanity doesn't require much more than "this dude is living in my house" to jump to "he must be serving Odium, and he must be his Champion.... because the only way someone could have become a Bondsmith post-Recreance MUST be a pact with the devil, because anyone who isn't me is the devil <insert maniacal crazy laugh>." As you said, he's mad as a hatter. This got me thinking - How does two Shards both divining the future affect the outcome of the future, especially since... 1. ...some are canonically better at future-scrying than others.... 2. ....all are REALLY powerful at it compared to mortals.... 3. ....there's only 16 Shards.... ...? To most beings it certainly will seem chaotic....and even to some Shards...but what happens for the Shard who truly is the best at telling futures? When two atium users fight, their abilities to see futures *mostly* cancel one another out because both parties see a positive feedback loop of reactions to possible actions, and reactions to those reactions, etc. This is because, presumably, both atium users are pretty balanced in investiture, and (again, *mostly*) have similarly-limited processing powers of the mind to interpret and react (and equal and opposite Intent - i.e. survive and kill the other person). We know the Shards are literally omnipotent (i.e. their Investiture is a fraction of infinity, which is to say, still infinity), but not truly omniscient. To know a certain future, the Shards have to have Intent to see that part of the otherwise infinite possibilities just like humans do. The "processing power" component for a Shard is orders of magnitudes greater than baseline humans, so much so that by comparison to a human it's like they are "functionally" omniscient, but its' nevertheless still true that they need to "try"/"want" to know a particular part of the infinitely branching timelines before they *actually* know it and therefore can act to achieve the future they desire. Moreover, we know some Shards (Cultivation) are simply better at telling the future than others (I've assumed this is due to their variable "processing powers" and inherent Intents, among probably other factors like the Vessel). So - you have up to 16 entities actively trying to achieve their ideal future, by obtaining predictions of "The" future obtained in parallel, doing it by a process where through their Intent they choose to "mine" finite parts of the theoretically infinite future, having differential power between one another in how comprehensive their finite grasp of the infinite is at any given time, and then all of them reacting to these finite "slices" of infinite future (and reacting, and future telling, and reacting, ad infinitum). By the atium example, where a balance between parties makes everything even out mostly net-neutral, you could expect the converse should be true here since future seeing power is unbalanced - i.e. whichever being (e.g. Cultivation) can combine infinite Investiture with the largest parallel-processing power to mine possible futures at the fastest/most comprehensive rate possible *should* inevitably always "win". Specifically, "win" here means that among all the beings reading and acting (and reacting...) on their future-telling to produce their desired future, the best Shard at future telling will by definition collapse all possible futures into ironically just one inevitable "True" future - i.e. the one they want, which they WILL get, since they're just better at predicting and acting then reacting than everyone else. Effectively, that single Shard best at telling the future is the only entity for whom the process ISNT chaotic and ISNT wrong, and conversely EVERY vision of the others will ultimately turn out wrong (because they get left several steps behind in the future-telling - acting - future telling - acting cycle from the GOAT future teller at the top). Except.....we don't see evidence yet that things actually work that way. If the best future telling Shard is destined to collapse all futures into their desired one, it should make future-telling fail for all lesser beings, and fail literally every time except for when their desired short or medium term outcomes align with the "Ultimate future-teller's" desired future. Since that's one option out of infinity, the odds of a future-teller getting ANY prediction right would be infinitesimal. Moreover, it should make that strongest future-telling shard to be invisible to all the other shards in the future, which would be an ironic "tell" that one Shard simply is destined to "Win" (as defined above) - i.e. the other shards would be expected to changes their actions to give up future-telling since they realize its' pointless (they can't keep up with the GOAT). Maybe we just haven't seen from that "top future-teller" character's point of view (or even met that character...though references to Cultivation being a strong future teller are abundant), and so to us the readers like all the other characters it just looks like chaos. Or, as would be ironic, maybe the character with the greatest "future-telling" ability in the Cosmere lacks the will to act on that ability (since the inevitability of their "win" depends on an assumption that they are actively using their "scrying" to the fullest extent to guide their actions to a desired future, and moreover doing it constantly until the end of time). The latter would seem to me like it would just cede "inevitability of the Win" to the next strongest Future-telling Shard who WAS actively trying to steer events to a desired future...possibly again and again until you get to Odium (since we KNOW he's trying to do this).... Basically, does the above imply Odium "Wins" unless a Shard stronger than he at future telling (e.g. Cultivation?) wants to win? I don't know my head has started to hurt.

Yes, I think something Fortune related, or at least adjacent. Maybe a sort of "atium-fabrial" (though I doubt literally powered by atium, since its' rare). My initial reaction, reading "Are you certain this is the right time?” followed by "Of course I’m not sure....The device is always unpredictable, don’t you know?”, was holy $%&# did Brandon just introduce time-travel and that's a time travel device and this is Demoux/Galladon/Baon coming to observe an event they know about in the past from sometime in the future??? It had a "When are we?" quality to it that triggered my spidey-sense for every fantasy/sci-fi story involving time travel and the multiverse. ....After settling down for a sec and thinking about the likelihood of Brandon introducing time-travel as a real thing that happens in the cosmere, for these 3 characters we already know and whom we have already seen on Roshar presumably traveling by normal means (perpendicularity), with no prior hints to suggest that time travel is a thing in this universe, and revealed in an interlude preview reading.....well, suffice it to say that reaction was silly. That said, I think there may be something going on here about, if not traveling to/from the future, then predicting the future. It could be that the device just pings in the presence abnormal/abnormally strong spren or other Invested phenomena and that's all it is....but personally it felt more to me like them showing up to that spot and that time had intention to it and the device was how they knew when and where to be (i.e. it seemed like they were there to witness some specific event they expected/hoped to witness in the future). Seeing/divining possible futures is a well-established in-canon thing, often at the Shard level, but also at the individual level under certain circumstances (Renarin, using atium, last words of dying Rosharans....etc.). We also know that in general the number of futures you see by these means is semi-limited (hence "Of course I’m not sure....The device is always unpredictable, don’t you know?”) to a finite number of futures rather than true infinity (though for shards with strong future-divining skills maybe it gets close to "functional" infinity?). Incidentally, there was a new WOB (#38 Nov. 21, 2023) discussing how much Brandon dislikes a truely infinite multiverse but is a bit more interested in a limited/finite approach to alternate futures/timelines......and all that seems to fit mechanistically here. So, my theory is that the device is something that forecasts future events, but (because magic is more interesting when it has downsides/limits/costs) it will show you say 5-7 possible times of possible future events and you can't really know which is the "true" future. Thus, the 17th shard crew is using it to predict within some margin of error where they should be to have a chance of observing possible, but not inevitable, events of Realmatic interest. There's also got to be more limitations to it then that, namely I can't imagine its' an overt crystal ball that can predict any/all "interesting/important comere events" imaginable. Again, this would violate the general spirit of probability in this world where the number of alternate futures/events is potentially large but nevertheless finite....for instance when you burn atium, the possibilities you see notably do NOT ever include the person attacking you spontaneously turning into a potted plant or blue whale a la the Hitchhikers' Guide. Moreover, following the principle that doing anything impressive with an inanimate object usually takes a good amount of investiture at a high burn/decay rate (e.g. Fabrials, hemolurgic spikes, all the Breath-powered things, etc.) it would seem that you'd need a near-Shardic (i.e. actually infinite) amount of Investiture to power a device that could predict any possibility happening anywhere at any time. More likely, it's something that needs "tuned" to a specific target type of event you already suspect *could* happen (e.g. Iriali migrations, given that they've already done it 4 times before). In that case, the device simply helps you to get a (still unpredictable) estimate of when the thing you *think* *might* happen could/might/will actually happen. A need to target a specific type of event/future to be seen with the device would also kind of mirror how seeing the future for Shards is described, wherein they have to turn their attention (i.e. with Intent) to the parts of possible timelines they're interested in before they can see/learn those possibilities (even if they have exponentially more processing power than a mortal, the Shards clearly do not have "true" omniscience....though the ones better at telling futures seem to come close). In that vein, a "future-fabrial" would certainly have to be even more targeted/limited than the way Shards see things, likely by several orders of magnitude. Still, it's an interesting possible development. ....Or.... its' just a run of the mill Investiture-o-meter that dings when a lot of Investiture is about to be expended such as (but not exclusive to) a mass perpendicularity exodus, and the 17th shard crew's reason for knowing to be in that place and time had nothing to do with the device ...or its' a time machine.... ....except no still definitely not a time machine.

Playing off of this, I think a really nice and on-theme 5th ideal would be an acknowledgement (and commitment to) a more proactive approach to "Protection". Right now, the forms of protection that Kal and the windrunners have showcased are just a minority of what "protection" can really mean. Specifically, their actions in the name of protection have all been decidedly "reactive" (rather than proactive) and occur at the time of an active threat (as opposed to before a potential threat, or after a threat has passed). Kal et. al are always jumping in to defend someone who is actively in harms' way right now, both for obvious external threats (war, physical violence) and acknowledgement of more subtle internal threats (Kal's mental health, and helping those already struggling with trauma). Protection can be/is far more than that though, and I see two really intriguing and opposing possibilities for the 5th Ideal stemming out of that observation. First, it is arguable that preventing conflict and harm in the first place is a much more effective form of protection than waiting to act until harm is imminent. The analogy here would be the difference between giving antibiotics to those who contracted a disease vs. vaccinating (or applying other other preventative/public health measures and public health) to prevent the disease in the first place (note these aren't mutually exclusive....just different focuses of protection). In practice, this would be an ideal to lead by brokering peace between opposing factions (to prevent conflict), building resilience in communities and people before they suffer harm, and even a recognition that sometimes your efforts to protect people might harm others (and that therefore you need to step back to prevent further harm, like the prior radiants did). So, the Oath would be something like this: "I will lead us into a world where people no longer need protecting". The whole saga of Stormlight 1-5 is based around an endless cycle of violence destined to forever repeat itself and put generation after generation in harms' way....and how the inevitability/cyclical nature of that horror just grinds the worlds' protectors beneath the ever-turning wheel of despair until they have nothing left to give (the Heralds walking away when they can no longer take another cycle of torture, the radiants walking away when they learn that the singers are victims and that humans are essentially an invasive species, and Kal's own personal journey from SA1-4.). Thus, a 5th ideal embodying a more proactive vision of protection, changing the world to prevent the sources and root causes of harm, really fits the overall series arc. It's a kind of "I will break The Wheel" reckoning, which in turn could lead to some very interesting (and not all necessarily positive) places. Note it also nicely builds off the 4th ideal - in recognizing you can't save everyone (i.e. your 1st through 3rd ideal version of protection is insufficient), you then naturally look to how you can prevent people from coming to harm in the first place (to address the insufficiency by swimming "upstream"). Second, there's also a sort of "opposite" way a 5th ideal could cause the windrunners to re-interpret and expand their mandate of protection compared to how they've approached it thus far. Besides stepping in to fight active threats to people now (the status quo of "protection"), or seeking a preventive approach to change the root causes of harm in the world and protect future generations (the new more proactive, and arguably "healthier" approach to "protection"), the remaining possibility is acting on behalf of those who have already been irreparably harmed by avenging them. "We will avenge those we could not protect", or "I will defend the Honor of those I failed to protect". It's certainly not as poetic, but it would be a very interesting and dark approach to the 5th ideal because it takes the Intent of Honor to its' most extreme conclusion. Namely, the most extreme adherence to lower-case "h" honor demands you defend honor, and an oath to protect the honor of those experiencing harm would dictate a need to seek vengeance on behalf of those who were harmed and we could not save. Thus, it would be a bit of a heel-turn for the Windrunners, since implicitly they would be mandated to disperse vengeance or rectify debts based on the decidedly subjective nature of honor (i.e. how does one decide what honor "demands"? And how do you prevent perpetuating a cycle of never-ending retribution and violence?). In a dark way, this would also build off the fourth ideal ("if we can't save them, then we will avenge their honor"). It would also be a a pretty strong mandate once you've sworn it - I can imagine a few interesting ways TaravOdium could co-opt an Oath to protect honor (i.e. by righting the worlds' wrongs). Odium could leverage the subjectivity to (lower-case) honor in order to capture the windrunners' aims for their own designs (never-ending cycle of violence-retribution-retribution for retribution). Or, less overtly, Odium could position things so that honor (or Honor) demands those swearing this dark possibility of the 5th Ideal have to direct their retributive violence at Odiums' enemies even if they don't support Odium's goals ("avenging" the Shattering of Adolnasium by attacking the remaining Shards, maybe?). In these kind of ways, Odium would effectively achieve final victory over Honor by perverting their Intent to its' darkest possible conclusion. I don't know if this second possibility is overall very likely, given that at some point this conception of the "dark side" of Honor/honor starts to overlap with the more obvious dark side of the Law (defending/enforcing an unjust law), and especially since we've seen multiple Skybreakers but no Windrunners in the "space age". However, it'd be an interesting - if incredibly tragic and dark - twist.