Vorros

Yeah I was going back to find the post about the Sart suspicion and came across the Conq post Shining made. There is a good argument in there about how Conq’s elim list was all low posters when he said the elims would be going for high control. I think I originally wrote it off as being unsure of anything, but I’m interested to see how @Conquestor’s reads or thoughts have changed.

This was solely piggybacked off of someone’s argument of Sart’s vote being opportunistic and blendy. I ninja’d it as it’s called here. As far as Conq’s alignment is concerned, I didn’t find any of the arguments against him to be convincing and I thought that Conq’s posts reflected a towny indignation to being suspected You can call it caught for the wrong reasons, but I read it as town. Also I think at this point we pretty much know what all the possibilities are, and I think it would be better to determine which scenario is most likely to be the case. I like Sart’s post because he outlined which scenario he found most likely and which one least likely.

I think we have two future plans of action. 1. We yeet Conq for Info: He was the counterwagon and a vote was moved that acted in his favor. It lets us understand if Illwei was to save him or not if he is an Elim. It also may limit the possibilities of where the Forsaken is. If he is a villager, then we can decide if the vote movement was village motivated to push Illwei over, whether the Forsaken was trying to cast suspicion on the Conq wagon, or if the Forsaken messed up the Compulsion due to some reason. I think there are more worlds where Conq is town here (also colored by the fact that I didn’t have an e read on him to begin with), but it would essentially be an info flip and make our future shots and tests more accurate hopefully. 2: We do our normal hunting and vote elimmy players. Sart had a bad vote onto Conq (who is likely V), and also has Forsaken equity. If compulsion can switch a vote to no-vote, it’s possible that the Forsaken stayed off completely and just removed a vote to cast suspicion as well. If it is one of the no voters then I’m leaning Wizard solely due to higher activity levels and because of Illwei’s opinion.

Can the Amyrlin be a forsaken? It would be very odd for a minus vote to be a tiebreaker. It would essentially have .5 vote instead of 1.5 or 0. I’ve got some thoughts about what happened. I think that any compulsion/Amyrlin vote moving probably would have happened before Devotary’s last minute vote. As the wagons stood, any shifting would have resulted in a close call in favor of pushing Illwei over. I think that Devotary *might* be clear of being Forsaken or Amyrlin because of the late vote (a real big if here). So according to Luck’s list, If it’s a Forsaken on Illwei using Compulsion, I think it’s more likely to be Conq or Mat over Devon. Actually the above analysis only applies to Forsaken because if it was Amyrlin manipulation it would be from a non-voter. Wait, @Luck Spren in your list If Forsaken it should say Xino not Conq since he voted Illwei. If it’s just compulsion, then I think that it was probably to save Conq. That means it could still be a Forsaken or elim on Illwei weaving compulsion, or it could be anyone off the Conq wagon. If it’s just a Forsaken on Conq, I have a hard time imagining that they didn’t try to cover their tracks at all, so I think it may be a possibility that they were roleblocked? Compulsion requires a shield to block, right? Did anyone weave any shields yesterday? Does the Blademaster Roleblock include blocking weaves? Maybe Illwei pogged with her roleblock.

If it was a forsaken on Conq, why would they be voting to save Illwei if she’s a villager? Perhaps both Conq and Illwei were/are villagers, so the split up on the wagons was to raise up multiple misyeets in the future? But if it was the Amyrlin, then where did the extra vote go? The Amyrlin would have not voted, so I don’t think it would be that. Another possibility is that compulsion was used to save Conq, but the question arises again of where the extra vote went. Also damn I really thought that Illwei was gonna flip purple.

I don’t think Illwei is paying any respect to thread control or presence. She’s doing her own thing. While I had a late start, I’ve been pretty present since then I think. I certainly will be in later phases as I hope Sart and Xino and Shining will be too.

Oh it said 10 pm mountain time in the Sign ups and I forgot I’m in central lol. It’s in a little over an hour I believe. But if it did start an hour late then it may go longer.

Don’t worry you still got 25 minutes to sit down and think through it! Going back is a lot easier to do here than it is to do on MU, I’ll tell you that. Volume-wise at least.

Is it just me, or am I sensing two opposing groups forming adverse worldviews? Heck, we may be unfortunate enough to have our own little divided Tower. Other than that, I totally relate to the not wanting to be wrong, but the fact of the matter is that there are only a select few god gamers in the world, so I think it would be better to guess and be wrong because it’ll help us talk it through and maybe make your guesses not be wrong anymore. ^^^By Illwei This also a very fair point. Quality is subjective too, and I think it is a little counter productive to try to force possible teammates to conform to your perception productive. That said, you gotta catch the wolves somehow.

But the thing is here that people did care about your reads ever since you dropped that wizard vote. People were asking for your explanation since your first post, so I don’t know why you think your reads don’t matter. Wrt Matrim, I explained it away as shifting a partner to a townread because the way you went about doing it made no sense. You said that Mat fit his scum meta then proceeded to town read him. That move was so sketchy it made me doubt Mat. You are right that Mat was in no danger, but what better time to fix a false read on a partner than during a time when there is no controversy revolving around the slot yet. This tbh. I think his rules make sense and are backed by the way the rules and potential roles are set up.

I’m sorry I meant wizard not conq. Progressions are supposed to make sense to the people they are explaining them to so that we know where you are at and how you got there. I care about how my progression looks so that others understand and listen to me. Being open is generally always better than being close handed about reads and such because without a progression I cant tell if you are actually changing your reads or if you are faking it. EDIT: Also I’m pretty sure your not positive reputation has come solely from me and Luck.

Maybe Your current list makes no sense compared to this. Your progression from one to the other is filled with so many contradictions. Here your progression on Mat makes no sense. It boils down to “Mat acts is more suspicious of me when we are both village, but since he is acting different and is exhibiting signs of TMI, I’m going to put him in my village reads.” Like are you hoping that comments like these are gonna fly under the radar because of your current position as a top poster and having a generally positive reputation for voting conquestor (correct me if I’m wrong other people)? This looks like you are somehow trying to move a partner away from your initial scumreads into your town core. I’m gonna be looking at Mat suspiciously as a possible partner of Illwei now. I think that He’s been fine up til now so I’m not gonna actively push him yet, but I stand at Illwei/Mat +1 more for the solve. And then here you vote the person who has apparently TMI’d half the player group village already, which just tops it all off.

Mech has never been my strong suit (as evident of my bad math), so I’m fine delegating it to others. Thanks for your pronoun. now that I think about it conditional makes no sense as null at all. I can see the xino condition making sense from their POV. I think xino is more likely to be an elim rather than Luck is, but I do agree that that initial explanation of weaves is likely to be unaligned. Luck would have just explained it in the elim doc (which is essentially the wolf chat I assume). What about Shining tho? What makes them more conditional than the rest of the pool of players? Especially since their only contribution has been a question about linking (which should apply to most people at least), so I don’t know why you picked out Shining to potentially develop a elim read on versus the rest of us.

I think this probably makes sense. 7-3 split does seem pretty steep, but it is rope madness and if we can find each other as town then we should be able to link up and create an untouchable town core. But since there are limited roles that can’t channel (like the warders I assume) maybe we are looking at 2. What’s the difference between a village aes Sedai and an elim aes Sedai? Oh is that the term for the baddies? Im sorry I screwed up the formatting. Are the tags just like basic bbcode? Or are they different?

Aww thanks! But I’m no darkfriend. It’s gonna take me a bit to get into the swing of things because the style here is quite different than from MU. I should also reread the rules so that the early musings on the number of miselims and whatnot make sense. @Illwei you’re missing someone on your list. And I’m assuming conditional is equivalent to null? Also why are you calling out Luck for being confident on a town!Mat read when you yourself have him down as village and are going so far as to be voting Luck for wanting to elim your two town reads. Clearly Luck doesn’t want to kill Mat if he thinks he’s town, so I really don’t like that you are pushing him for incorrect reasons atp. Illwei Votes are just bold red text, no?

This is correct lol. Let’s just keep it with Verin Sedai since her allegiance was mixed anyway. will also keep in mind editing too

I will play as either Verin Sedai or Alanna Sedai according to my alignment.

I will play