Luckspren

Well... that's odd. Takes care of the CC for us. Players who've been around longer, can you tell me if NKing inactives is normal? Doesn't seem like a profitable elim strat.

+Village on you two, I think. I personally haven't noticed any problems with your tone, Conquestor.

Welcome to the Shard!

Welcome to the Shard!

Player Reads: Devo: Slight Elim Lean. I don't like the last-minute vote, but I'm told it's a very Devo thing to do. It seems an unnecessary thing for E!Devo to have done, but that depends on what happened with the vote manip. Nothing solid. Conq: Village Lean. I'm inclined to think elim because of all the attention, but his posts sound Village to me, and his 'why is everyone jumping on me' is the same as it was last game, when V!Conq was getting jumped on. Vorros: Village Lean. Mostly gut. I'm a little nervous because they're an experienced player whom no one has experience with. Araris: Elim Lean. I'm actually not sure where I'm getting this, aside from suspicion of the Conq voter pool. I'm not confident enough to vote. Sart: Slight Elim Lean. Ditto Araris, and I'd like to see more activity. Xino: Elim Lean. Votes with minimal reasoning, putting up reads with no reasoning- it looks like hiding to me. Matrim: Null. Lowish activity and NAI posts. Shining: Village Lean. I was recently new, confused, and village myself, and that's how their posts read to me. He's doing a much better job of being engaged and active than I did in my first game- keep it up! Wizard: Slight Village Lean. Because an elim would probably bother to be engaged with the game.

Reading back through my post, I think I presented the options in an unnecessarily repetitive way. The vote count change is due to Forsaken, Elim Compulsion, Village Compulsion, Conq Compulsion, or Amyrlin Manip, with possible overlap. Putting myself in the Forsaken's shoes, the safest thing to do would be vote on someone other than Conq and use Compulsion to move a vote from Conq to wherever I am. Assuming smart, active elims whose thought process is similar to mine, I think this is what happened. This could be an attempt to save Conq, or just self-preservation, avoiding suspicion, and throwing mud, which is what I think happened. I'm leaning towards V!Conq. I'm very suspicious of Elith. Edit: Ninja'd.

Oops. Will edit that in. Thanks. What? Right, but they would be making it look like a more viable lynch, thereby attracting more votes. Putting a vote there is still 'support' of the lynch.

Low posting looks like hiding/avoiding suspicion, and it's highly unhelpful to the village because it gives us nothing to analyze. However, it's also typical new player behavior, so I don't find you particularly suspicious. The Amyrlin thing doesn't apply because it wasn't a tie. It was a Forsaken or Compulsion. Here's every possibility I can come up with: A Forsaken could've been: 1. Supporting the Conq lynch 2. Worried about being labeled a Forsaken for not voting 3. Trying to cast suspicion on the other two Conq voters. Compulsion could've been: 4. Conq self-preservation 5. elims saving Conq 6. villager saving Conq. Implications of those options: 1. Conq is Village 2. At least one of <Araris, Sart, Xino> is Elim, and they all voted on Conq, so Conq is Village 3. Exactly one of <Araris, Sart, Xino> is Elim, the other two are Village, and Conq is Village 4. Conq is an Aes Sedai. He's also not particularly desperate to survive, if he was relying on an action with only 40% chance of success to save him, AND he didn't move the vote to Illwei, but simply took it off. Seems villagery, but not at all certain. The Forsaken is someone who didn't vote, so <Shining, Wizard>. 5. Conq is Elim. The vote manip was probably done by the Forsaken to make sure it went through. Either the Forsaken didn't vote, so F: <Shining, Wizard> OR 5.2 the Forsaken moved a vote from Conq to whoever the Forsaken voted for, covering the Forsaken's tracks and casting suspicion on the Conq voter pool. Forsaken: <Shining, Wizard> because they didn't vote, <Araris, Sart, Xino> because then the vote tally would be 3 and we wouldn't be having this conversation. That leaves <Conq, Devo, Mat, Vorros> as the possible Forsaken. 5.3 the stuff with the Forsaken Compulsion happened, but Conq is Village and it wasn't an attempt to save Conq, it was a more complicated version of 2. 6. Someone is thoroughly convinced that Conq is village. This could be anyone but Sart, Xino, and Araris, and tells us nothing, except that someone REALLY trusts their read of Conq. TL;DR If Forsaken, kill Araris, Sart, or Conq; if Compulsion, kill Shining or Wizard; If Forsaken + Compulsion, kill Conq, Devo, Mat, or Vorros. I'll post again when I've decided which one I think happened. EDIT: Amyrlin Seat does apply. 7. Conq is Amyrlin and Village, self-preservation 8. Conq is Amyrlin and Elim, self-pres 8.5 Self-pres and throwing Forsaken suspicion on his voters 9. Village Amyrlin is convinced of Conq's innocence and trying to save him 10. Elim Amyrlin is trying to save Elim Conq 11. Elim Amyrlin is trying to throw Forsaken suspicion on voters EDIT 2: 12. Amyrlin Forsaken covering their tracks

If you think I'm town, please consider... taking your vote off me. ??

@The Unknown Novel, when does the cycle end? The write-up says today, but not a time. Nah, I can see how 5 implies 6, but your explanation of 5 is reasonable. Assured{deleted space}ness Movement of Rhetorical Thinking Theory. Fancy name for being errorgant on purpose.

Summary of the case against Conquestor I'll do my best, @Conquestor. Here's the conversation, patched together as much as possible (spoilered for length). TL;DR You're being voted on by Sart, Araris, and Xino. Here are their vote posts, and what I think they meant. Sart: "Your post just felt like a regurgitation of what had already been discussed in thread, in an attempt to blend in." So, he thinks you're trying to hide. Araris: (quotes self) "'Your point about thread control is relevant though. Do you think that players like Illwei, Mat, and myself are more suspicious because we’ve had relatively more influence on the thread, given that your analysis suggests the elims would be forced into that?' I'm going to park my vote on Conquestor at least until I get a response from this. If your rule analysis gives you conclusions that you are disregarding, then it's performative and hence elimmy." So, he thinks your analysis should be leading you to suspect people, and it isn't; something's off. Xino: "Something about his rules analysis posts feels off to me, though I can't quite put my finger on it." ...that's it, all the reasoning given. Gut. You're also being suspected by Illwei because 1) you said she wasn't contributing, bringing you up to a total of one post yourself, and 2) you suspected Araris but not Illwei for voting Wizard, when they gave the same lack of explanation for their votes. Those posts are highlighted in the spoiler box conversation, for reference. I think you already addressed everything here except why Illwei's one post with a vote in it was less of a contribution than your one post with no vote in it. TL;DR What case against Conq? I don't see anything convincing.

Because I explained things to them? 'Everyone knows progession cases are useless'- overstatement much? Dramatic shifts in opinion mean something and are useful information. (Ninja'd by Vorros) Elaborate on the last two, please. Why those pairings? I'm not arguing (for once in my life), I'm just asking why you think that. Illwei didn't get any positive reputation for voting Wizard. She got a whole bunch of criticism.

I agree about Xino (kind of maybe sort of, I can at least see it), but there's this: Shining as conditional rather than null makes no sense to me either, @Illwei. Care to explain? Vote tally: Conquestor (3): Sart, Xino, Araris Illwei (2): Luckspren, Vorros Luckspren (1): Illwei

Welcome to the party, Vorros! Illwei is missing Wandering Wizard. I don't think conditional is equivalent to null, because she put Xino in conditional after talking about how she's not elim if I am, and her null group appears to be <Conq, Devo, Sart, you>. I'm a she . 8-3 split. Still steep, but it's probably safer to assume 3. Eliminators are the baddies. Aes Sedai are the ones who can channel, Warders aren't Aes Sedai, so I don't think they can channel.

Yeah, I'm kinda new (4th game). I'm trying to kill 2 people you believe to be village, you say? Yourself, obviously, and Conq, who you don't list as village? Conq and you have not been arguing? You voted Wandering Wizard, Conq wanted an explanation, you 'e lean' him, you say 'could definitely use that argument about you not saying much back on you, with your one post', Conq thanks you for explanations but says it looks like you're trying to avoid explaining, says you're not communicating much, you say you talk more than he does (I think that's what you were saying), you say you're annoyed at him. At that point I say you've been arguing, and I'll stick to that. Sure, he didn't post a lot, but this looks like an argument to me. Me overly defensive about not e/e Araris: I can see how that came across as defensive, but it wasn't. It was me not seeing your logic at all, so I asked. I do see the logic now, so... thanks I guess (I say as you declare me an elim... whatever) You talk about my 'added shade and walkback'. What specifically are you referring to? You say my interactions with Xino are a point in my favor, and you say they look like we're 1) unpartnered and 2) partnered and 3) unpartnered. ? Yet another clarification: You have Shining as 'conditional'. What conditions do you mean? @Illwei

I'd like one anyway. Based on our nonexistent interactions? I appreciate that you're producing a lot of content, but I'm not following most of it. Maybe it's just me, or maybe it doesn't quite make sense and you're just spewing. Oh yeah, also this: He's guessing and analyzing. Doesn't mean he's right, doesn't mean he knows for sure. Illwei. If not, maybe Conq; they're arguing enough that someone probably was being suspicious, regardless of my inability to see the suspicious things that were done.

What are the odds for two villagers and one contradictory elim?

You're asking so that if someone was scanned starting a PM, we know they didn't send in the elim kill- or you're an elim and you want to know? Highest stats anyone has for each element are used, complexity goes down 1 point, and I think subtract for additional actions from any of the linked players I think it does.

Welcome to the Shard! What problem?

Welcome to the Shard! I'd love to read some of your chapters if you put them out.

Oh, good. I'll be Lelea Sedai.

...Fine. I'm in. Have only read the first Wheel of Time book, so I'm expecting be confused. Welcome to Sanderson Elimination, Silhouette and Vorros! Word of warning, from my personal experience: Don't trust people. Like... ever. Not kidding. But also kinda kidding. You'll see.

Welcome to the Shard! I read RoW in 24 hours once, but not in one calendar day. Gg!

Welcome to the Shard! What's your favorite Metalborn power?

Belated welcome to the Shard!