The Unknown Character
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A little birdy said so. -
... Welp You probably could have played that one off, but you just made our lives easier. That's the flaw of newbie teams.
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My family is going on a road trip from Montana, to Salt Lake City, Utah, to Davenport Iowa. We're taking our cat, and he is not used to car rides.
I feel so bad for him, but we're trying to make it as easy for him as possible.
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Aeternum: I'm seeing some connections between them and Cash, my highest suspect, but I can't reasonably believe an elim busses RBM like that. Cash: Pretty strong e/e connections with e!RBM. Most common denominator teammate with any other person. Is heavily pushing me which is actually imperically tested to be an elim tell. I'm not kidding on that btw. Probably don't need to explain that right now but it is a thing that has worked in the past. Quivil/Spark: I've got nothing. Spark was too new and too inactive to tone read. Quivil hasn't quite shown up yet. Decent third teammate option. Weaver: Also nothing. Could be a third teammate maybe, but they’re kind of a blackhole. Wierdo: I think I remember slightly better vibes here, but they have even less content than the others so I very well could be misremembering.
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I mean, I did nearly get RBM exed d1 (Kas showed extreme willingness to shift, and Kidpen was kind of sheeping). I had set RBM aside because I was mostly looking at their e/e connections with v!Archer.
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Hmph. Heretics. The gods of Luck and Chance remain supreme.
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That's a bet I'm willing to make, though that does mean we lose if Cash somehow isn't a hit. It is actually the point where, if the village executes a villager, they will lose. So not quite when numbers are equal. Another important characteristic is that, typically (it's weird in this game), every cycle after exlo/lylo is also lylo, meaning if the village misses just once, we lose.
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I suspect I die this turn, but at least it's not exlo anymore. I can afford to go. Unless you guys are willing to vote Cash. Reasons to come tomorrow. Also, goodbye Kas. Enjoy your salmon and the blessed spoilers of the Dead doc.
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...no No think only sleep But I'm coming to see the point of view of Cash/RBM e/e. Something Cash said earlier made me think Cash/RBM/Aet, but I don't think that's possible with the voting this cycle. I've mostly been convincing myself off of Aet throughout the cycle.
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Hmmm.
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I mostly process of eliminationed them, and used some vote analysis. Kinda just what felt right with some hard to explain logic backing it up. I mean, if anyone can read me, it's probably Kas, but he's not exactly consistently right. Just more right than most people. Is it really opportunitism when you mention distrust of two people, who then both become trains way later? I'll give you Cash, though. I see how that could come across. I'd note that it was more if I was doing things by c3. E!me has a hard time making up suspicions. But at the same time, if you can't see anything I've done so far as villagey by next cycle go ahead. Well, not if it's lylo, is it's lylo, exe someone who's actually an elim. There are so many ninjas on this post. Oh well.
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First of all: Cash Those last couple of posts and interactions felt very off. If I'm getting bad vibes and Kas is seeing logical reasons here, I think this is probably a good shot. For me it's literally going to be getting later and later. I'm driving into a different timezone soon. I was doing some thinking over rollover. I assumed Archer was v and just went down the player list, Aet came up when I assumed that. Aet also came up when I assumed he was e, so that was my initial reasoning. There's also the fact that if Weaver is e, there's no way the Archer train is pure. Well, actually, there's no way the Archer train is pure unless our team is Weaver, Wierdo, Cash. I'm willing to give RBM the pass currently, so that leaves Aet and Spark. I think at this point, from my perspective, the team make up has to be (v!Weaver Aet/Spark/RBM, Cash, Wierdo. E!Weaver is Weaver, Aet/SparkRBM, (Aet/Spark)/Cash) Cash is the closest thing to a consistency. Honestly, I don't think exing Weaver at this juncture gives us all that much info. But you asked about Aet. I think Aet is the main place to look if Cash flips v and/or Spark does the same. Aet does feel very different here, but I think those first few games you're going to feel pretty different regardless, and Aet might have the confidence now to be bolder as an Elim. So, in short, you asked me my thoughts on Aet and I realized I need to vote Cash. Great job me, so helpful. I'm just going to post this now, maybe I'll get back to it at another point.
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Fair. I can't really disagree here. Kidpen's pretty eh (but at this point making my teammates decide the first kill practically is my meta), but Aeo is definitely in there. If I had actually been thinking about it I'm not sure if I would have gone for them or you at this juncture. A factor to consider against me suggesting or agreeing to a Aeo hit is that I might be reluctant. I've seen Aeo die early enough lately for reasons that I largely disagreed with that I would like to think e!me gives her a buffer here. Not sure if I would have thought of it though. Man, newish elim teams suck when you're not the one on them. Kas, do you have a PM with Raven? I assume so. I haven't used mine out of laziness yet and I'm trying to decide if I should PM him, you, or both.
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Interesting. Don't you just love when you build a shiny new tunnel out of conf bias, then it all comes crashing down? I think I'm looking at Aet, Spark, Wierdo here? Maybe RBM. That's with credences. I could be pretty easily convinced on Cash. Man, I could honestly exe anyone here at this point.
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He was in the hot tub. Not the pool, obviously.
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Wait, actually, @Kasimir, even if you get to it next cycle, what are purity reads and who's been using them? I suck at terminology. Agreed here kinda. If Archer’s out I feel a bit more confident about RBM as well. I feel Weaver's probably good. This is likely to be where my carefully constructed tunnel falls apart. What was Archer’s activity like?
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Not sure I was responding to what you think I was responding to. I don't really think having a veteran player on a newbie team is a moral norm. I also think having a newbie who's played multiple games or at least one game is enough even morally. We do exist. I don't listen to them a lot (mostly only Sleep is for the Weak tbh), but that is roughly the genre I prefer (tis a weird rabbit hole, from country to Dropkick to punk and beyond). Edit maybe: Honestly, as a GM who does care about having veterans with newbies, I don't think I'd consider RBM a newbie. Certainly not a veteran, but this is their third game, and they've been an elim before (and won). I kinda start taking away new player amnesty around the third game mark, so that's my personal thoughts there.
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https://youtu.be/OXQLDCAApPg?si=0192y41mltmMp5Ej
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Hey, I do short snappy posts full of wit too. Honestly, if it's a single paragraph long enough to be two, it probably doesn't matter that much.
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In my experience (a team of three newbies and a team of two), they have about the same variance as normal players. I haven't encountered a super talkative new player, but my sample size is larger and I've only encountered one maybe two really talkative people. I do think that coaching is heavily overestimated, but the consensus seems to agree with me on that more and more. Really? Interesting. I'll actually keep that in mind. Tbh, I kinda agree with that sentiment. It betrays the norms in a way that will throw the village off enough to balance the cons. This double post merging/editing is oddly intoxicating.
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Interesting. I would say, for slower paced SE at least, this is the sort of thing more likely to be felt by elims (or new players of course), rather than villagers. Though I have felt that as both alignments.
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Edit: Do you think Drake would do that for the second game in a row? ^ not rhetorical btw, genuine want to know is you and/or others think that's within Drake's wheelhouse. No. Does it have anything to do with the concept of let(ing) it go? Generally not what lurking means but it's pretty true either way.
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I think an important part of my meta, which is certainly controlling, is that I don't really kill based on activity. I only kinda even kill based on threat levels. I have a sort of ethereal list of who I'm afraid of, that I start of the top of. You (Kas) aren't actually that high up until c3ish. People like Araris, Aman, Archer, or Mat are generally higher in the first few turns. People that aren't going to be sussed much (but still a little bit, cause nothing confuses villagers more than having their suspects die and be confirmed v), are pretty active, and have good elim finding rates. I feel that on early cycles, you're really high in the first two, but surprisingly low in the last one, which is also coincidentally when it matters the most in my opinion. Unrelated to the above. This mostly isn't relevant anymore, but can we not exe Aeoryi. I sympathize with not having a typical playstyle, and with switching said playstyle and being suspected for it. I also think that, from what little I know of Aeo, this is about as village as they get. And, in response to what was said while I was writing this post, that joke was kinda in bad taste. I don't feel it's my place to bring it up to an IM if/beyond Aeoryi doing, but that's my opinion.
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Waiting until someone can defend themselves to be waiting until we're all dead. If RBM didn't defend themselves when they had a chance (several people had mentioned suspicion at that point), then there's no reason for us to give them a second chance. I disagree here. EoD was way too volatile to kill anyone with votes on them. Kidpen feels pretty firmly like a placeholder kill to me. 1 I mean. That's what I do, but I understand your reluctantance. A decent chunk of my initial distrust was you not answering me when I asked why you unvoted there. Your reactions from then on have just kinda compounded. 2 Yeah, that's not true for me. If I'm on, I'm on. Many people can attest, my activity doesn't vary predictably with alignment. As for that last bit, I was checking in as much as I could while I was doing other things. 3 Kill it, kill it with fire. If I was e, one of you, Kas, or Aet would be dead rn.
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Noting for the future that I'm still willing to join this vote, I just felt Archer was the bigger concern atm.
