Flyingbooks

Just now, Omi the Counselor said:

Kabsal: Yes... Jam... 

*nudges corpse further under table*

"By the way, would you like some bread? It's very healthy, I promise..."

I love how the Kabsal one looks like strawberry jam.

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

So, what's the theory now? Genuine roleblocker started the chain and Turtle tried to muddle it up or an elim started the chain to pin Gears? If it's the former that would be both Gears and Turtle are elims. If it's the latter, there's an elim at the head of the chain. I think Books mentioned a defence for Gears as they said an elim would try to sow chaos and blame other villagers, but I'm of the opinion that an elim would be cautious in doing so as such fake roleblock claims can always be traced back to them, so they'd not want to risk another elim's life while trying to save elim!Gears.

An elim could always say that they got it from somebody who doesn't want to be named in the thread, which would be expected from the RBer or somebody who was PMd by the RBer themselves. They could allso accuse whoever started the other message chain of being an elim.

In addition to the 2 options that you listed, the chain could have been started by a genuine roleblocker who wasn't the one who roleblocked an elim. That makes the most sense to me, since it explains why the only alternative message was intended to be very localized. However, one thing it doesn't explain is why the RBer who roleblocked the elim didn't start a message chain of their own, so I think there's a significant chance that Reading is TLR or Spiked.

16 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I don't have RoW, so... I'll be around.

I'm waiting for my copy to arrive. At least since it's probably going to arrive just a bit before thanksgiving break I'll be able to read all day without having to worry about homework.

This week is spirit week at my school and classes get points by finding an image of a specific animal on class slides & by wearing a specific small costume for each day. Today's costume is sunglasses and this year's animal is a bee. That's amusingly similar to this game's unofficial theme of giant sunglasses & hornets. 

20 minutes ago, Sart said:

I'm also not sure why eltruT is in the lead right now. The biggest suspects are the people who were theoretically roleblocked. Gears is the only one of those two who actually gained some votes, so my vote is going there.

Just because someone was mentioned in the PMs doesn't mean that they were the roleblocked elim. In fact, since the only messages in the PM chain were about Gears for a while, earlier in the thread I said that I suspected that it was likely that either the elims put out intentional misinformation or an RBer who didn't block an elim sent out the first message about Gears and the elims let it spread further in order to spread the misinformation. I think that if Gears was actually an elim, the elims would have put out lots of messages that said that someone else was an elim as quickly as possible in order to decrease suspicion on Gears and increase suspicion on a villager. However, the messages about Quinn having been roleblocked started relatively late, didn't spread far, and appeared to be very localized & priimarily targeted toward Gears. Turtle was the first person to send a message about Quinn having been roleblocked and she lied about receiving a message saying so, which is suspicious and odd. Additionally, Turtle claimed that she chose Quinn pretty much at random, but Ghander also sent a PM to Gears about Quinn having been roleblocked, which would be an unlikely coincidence, so it seems coordinated.

4 hours ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

I have classes until after turnover, but I might be able to check on the thread in between classes

Oops. For some reason I thought that the cycle ended today.

I didn't have much time to read the thread in between classes, but I noticed that there are several votes on Turtle. Earlier, I said that if there was a countertrain to Gears I would vote for it. I'm not extremely suspicious of Turtle, but I am more suspicious of them than of Gears, so I'll vote on Turtle. I don't have the time to explain my reasons why, but I will explain when I have the time next cycle.

The chance of Gears being elim based on the PM chain is very low. There are probably multiple RBers and I doubt that the elims would miss this chance to control the lynch. There's only one main message spreading, which is extra suspicious, because I don't think that the elims would allow one of their own to be accused so firmly without adding a bit of chaos into the chain, which is especially vulnerable to misinformation. Whoever sent the first message may not have been an elim, but they were almost certainly not the RBer that blocked an elim. The elims might be letting this go on without interference so that the village gangs up on a fellow villager.

I'm a bit less suspicious of Danex now because I thought of a plausible reason why they might come up with their plan & why they focused on what they did other than being an elim, but telling people about it would completely invalidate the reason. I'm still a bit suspicious, but not that much, so Danex.

There's currently no major countertrain to Gears and I have classes until after turnover, but I might be able to check on the thread in between classes, so if there's an option other than Gears with a decent number of votes and at least some evidence, I'll probably join it.

@Matrim's Dice Could I please have a vote count?

1 minute ago, Ghanderflaffle said:

Before we slaughter Gears, keep in mind that the RBer, if there is one and Reading isn’t just TLR, could have not PMed anyone and an elim might’ve started the chain.

Yes. I think that's more likely than only the genuine message spreading until now. There are several elims and I doubt that most RBers would roleblock every time, so statistically it's probably more likely that an elim sent the first pm in the chain than that the right RBer sent it, so I'm suspicious of how long it took for a second message to start spreading.

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

It's a risk, yes. But it's better to narrow down the possible Elim killer to as few people as possible.

How about we carry out the plan, but then, instead of lunching the most PMd-about person, simply keeping it in mind as potential bonus evidence against anybody who's mentioned if they're acting a bit elimish. This would prevent the elims from using it to choose who to lynch while also using it to gain information.

My point is that the elims don't even need to change the PM chain. They could simply start their own chains, and nobody would be able to know which chain has useful information, which ones are created by elims, and which ones are made by RBers who didn't block the elim who submitted a kill on Reading.

Danex, because suggesting a way to find out who was roleblocked that is simple for the elims to hack is a good way to seem helpful and village while giving the elims more control over the lynch.

@Danex, how did you not notice the way that that your plan could be hacked by the elims? Also, I received a PM from you saying that someone was roleblocked. Why would you go through with the plan after I showed how the elims might use it?

Since there's a big danger of this being used with only the elims knowing about the hack, I'll share it.

17 minutes ago, Danex said:

In the end, everyone will probably have 3-4 messages from the chain. We each share who the messages said, but not who sent them. Then, whoever is mentioned in the messages the most is who we Lynch. The original RBer sends the message to the most people, so it’s most likely that the most sent message is the actual RBed person.

Once the chain is in full force, the original RBer can send a few more messages, just to make sure that the real message is the most common one. 
 

Hmm, I hope we don’t have more than one RBer.....this might completely break. 

The elims can start new fake messages and send them out to as many people as they want. The original roleblocker would send 8 messages, but the elims can send them to everybody.  Also, it's unlikely that more than one canton of inquisition player (if there are multiple) roleblocked the same person, so each one would send out a different message, while the elims can all coordinate to send the same message. No matter how many there are, the elim messages would be greater in number and more unified.

2 minutes ago, Danex said:

Here’s how I think the chain should work. 

Roleblocker, you should choose 8 people. Individually message each of those people and say exactly this. 
“I Roleblocked ___”
If you receive a message, you *immediately* PM 4 people with the exact same message: 
“I Roleblocked ___”
In this way we can have a sorta “I am Spartacus” thing where everyone claims Roleblocker. 

If you receive a second or third PM from someone, as a result of the chain going around to you again, send it to 2 people, different from the 4 you sent it to earlier. If the message is different, as a result of Elim tampering with the chain, I don’t think you should change it. The first one might’ve been the Elim changed one, there’s no way to know. Unless you are the RBer, then you can obviously change it to the actual message.

In the end, everyone will probably have 3-4 messages from the chain. We each share who the messages said, but not who sent them. Then, whoever is mentioned in the messages the most is who we Lynch. The original RBer sends the message to the most people, so it’s most likely that the most sent message is the actual RBed person.

Once the chain is in full force, the original RBer can send a few more messages, just to make sure that the real message is the most common one. 
 

Hmm, I hope we don’t have more than one RBer.....this might completely break. 

As I said before, there's a way that the elims could take advantage of this, especially because of their coordination. I'm beginning to suspect you a bit because the way for the elims to turn this into a free mislynch is really clear but you don't seem to be aware of it at all, which could be faked. Suggesting something like this, which seems useful but is actually easily hacked, would be a good way to gain trust while also giving the elims more influence over the next lynch.

9 minutes ago, Danex said:

Idea to make sure that this Info gets out, but without endangering the Roleblocker:

we start some sort of insane PM chainmail thing. The Roleblocker PMs a few people with a message saying who they RBed, but they claim that someone messaged them the info. Those people immediately continue the train and so do those people, until we have a giant entangled mess, and the Elims won’t really be able to tell where the chain started. 
You send the message to multiple people so that the Elims can’t change the message, or if they do, we can figure out where the discrepancy is, and then who the Elims are. 

However, there is a big risk to this that I have thougt of but won't share because I don't want to give ideas to the elims. I might be able to recognize if it's happening and say so, though.

5 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

And no, I’m not trying to pocket him. I mean logically, if I was an elim, would I really do it in such an obvious way? I’d like to think I’m a lot more sneakier than that. Maybe @Matrim's Dice can confirm.

By the way, I prefer gender-neutral pronouns.

10 minutes ago, Somebody from Sel said:

I wasn't in LG71 you must have me confused with someone else

Let me correct that. Somebody who is not Somebody from Sel did it.

Just now, Quinn0928 said:

Are you even allowed to vote for yourself?

Yes. Somebody did it on accident in LG71, and it counted as a vote.

At this point, it probably won't matter who I vote for since Wind has such an overwhelming lead> Before this round I thought that Vapor might be an elim, but Araris' reasoning abbout how the elims not putting 2 votes on any other person was a big risk decreased how likely Vapor is to be an elim in my estimation. I doubt that Connie is an elim because earlier in the game, somebody (I don't remember who, and I don't want to check the entire thread) said that Connie & Turtle roleclaimed to each other on the Hemalurgist doc & Turtle didn't get killed in the first night or two. Voting for anybody else would have even less of a chance of being effective than voting for either of these & Wind being an elim fits in with the Inactive Elim Theory, so I guess I'll jump on the Wind wagon to decrease the chance that either Connie or Vapor (who both seem less suspicious to me than Wind) will be lynched.

33 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

If we don't decide to lynch a player C1, we'll literally be in the same position C2. That is, with no clue like it was the beginning of the game. Sure we can discuss, but when you make it clear that you want to retract your vote, it's easier of the elims to pretend genuine suspicion. C1 lynch forces elims to lynch villagers, so by seeing the reasons each people give to lynch others and by seeing voting patterns, we have some basis for the next cycle. If not, we're just as blank next cycle as we are in this. 

Good point.

29 minutes ago, Gears said:

This is a matter of much debate and controversy. The current meta states that a D1 lynch is optimal. The arguments against are what you have stated. The arguments for are as follows: If we do not lynch someone, the elims will kill someone, and we'll be exactly where we were but down a player. In addition, the interactions during the lynch can provide information. I personally think the D1 lynch is good, but I still don't like to participate.

But if we do lynch someone, then we'll be down, on average, at least a player and four fifths. I think that it would be good to interact as usual but retract votes near the end unless somebody is EXTREMELY suspicious.

I don't think we should vote anyone out on the first day because we have practically no information and statistically we're more likely to lynch a villager than an elim.

5 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Also, I'm pretty sure telling the group elim strats makes Mist *less* suspicious, not more, Illwei. Anyone can theorize what the elims would do, whereas the elims are unlikely to share their thinking too much in the thread.

I agree. The elims have their own document to plan on, so while sharing possible elim strats isn't a good idea for a villager, doing it makes even less sense for an elim.

Kesilen saw the dead obligator get dragged out of the alley. They had heard about the Inquisitors' power plays and now it seemed like they were trying to kill obligators. Kesilen had no love for the oppressive steel ministry or the obligators, but it would likely be harder for them to get the information that they wanted with the Inquisitors in charge. Their dark glasses fell down their nose a bit, and Kesilen resolved to go get them fixed. That screw always got loose at the most inopportune times. The ash in the sky helped to block out much of the sun's light, but even after many years away from Taldain, Kesilen's eyes were still very sensitive to light. As they were walking down the street, they saw another person with dark glasses, who, strangely, was holding an animal with stripes a brighter color than any other animal that they had seen on this ashen planet so far. At least there's one person here who understands the value of sunglasses, Kesilen thought.