Gears

Fallacy is the human condition. Surpass what we comprise or wallow in the depths of despair.

I am terrible at identifying traitors by their quirks and tells. To help with this, I am going to write down everything my fellow trappers ever said and my thoughts on them 1 First of the Bone: Notes the tardiness of the trappers. Null 2 Fourth of the Dark: Analyses roles. Null 3 Pi of the Book: Hypothesises four traitors, plans for five. While this hypothesis is strange, I do not think it demonstrates alignment. 4 First of the Light: Disagrees with five traitors, thinks the Spy should be unconditionally followed. Given that this would be terrible for the Traitors, I am inclined to think positively of Light, but this could be an opportunity for a Traitor to consign an ally to death and proceed to lead the trappers on a jolly killing spree. 5 First of the Clouds: Thinks Light's plan is good, though is concerned about about killing a trapper with a Healer. Valid concerns, but null. 6 Fourth of the Dark: Proposes checking the Spy with the Aviar Spy if they are ever wrong. Null. 7 Pi of the Book: Wanted to overestimate, not underestimate. Notes the risks of taking false positives in the endgame. Null. 8 Philico: Notes that Pi has a good point. Null. 9 295864685th of the Midnight: Is a new trapper. Null. 10 Philico: Welcomes Midnight. Null. 11 PI of the Book: Teases Midnight. Null. 12 Twisp Winthrop: Believes Pi's overestimation to be a Traitorous statement. Null. 13 Pi of the Book: Thinks overestimating and killing more is better than underestimating. I disagree with this statement because when underestimating, it is immediately evident when one is wrong, but when overestimating, one never gets a confirmation, and it allows for conspiracy theories. Null. 14 Second of the Dawn: Thinks caution is a virtue, though not an urgent one. Null. 15 Pi of the Book: Thinks lynching wildly is a valid strategy, which is not my opinion the matter. Null. 16 Elkanah: Thinks lynching with a touch of reason is advisable. Null. 17 Twisp Winthrop: Notes that 5 traitors is exceedingly high, and that paperwork is bothersome. Null. 18 First of the Clouds: Is also new. Null. 19 Pi of the Book: Asks Cloud what his thoughts are. 20 First of the Clouds: Agrees with lynching anyone who appears as traitor. Notes that I ran about with a knife, screaming about killing Patji. Null [Note to self: Stop sleepwalking.] 21 Philico: Informs Cloud that screaming at the sky is my modus operandi. Null. 22 First of the Clouds: Asks if I genuinely killed anyone during past sleepwalking escapades. Null. 23 Philico: Informs Cloud that I did not kill anyone yet. Null. 24 Pi of the Book: Notes my strangeness. Asks Cloud if they have any questions. Null. 25 First of the Clouds: Asks how to get their Aviar to act, demonstrating their complete inexperience. I would be inclined to trust that such a new trapper would not be a killer, or would at least consult their allies if they were, but one can never know for sure. 26 Pi of the Book: Tells Cloud how to command their Aviar. Null. 27 First of the Clouds: Thanks. Null. 28 Twisp Winthrop: Thinks Cloud is probably not an elim. Null. 29 Pi of the Book: Agrees, why asked question in first place. Null. 30 First of the Clouds: Poaching newbies good strategy. Null. 31 Pi of the Book: Was split second decision. Null. 32 First of the Clouds: Compliments Pi. Null. 33 Second of the Dawn: Pi has missed their chance to question Dawn. Null. 34 Pi of the Book: Does not understand. Null 35 Philico: Agrees with Winthrop, though dislikes Pi for reasons unknown 36 Twisp Winthrop: Thinks might be focusing on Pi, but finds their response strange. Winthrop || Pi. 37 Pi of the Book: Explains predilection for ego, though it should really be id, and inarticulation. Null. 38 First of the Person: A returning trapper with questions and a lack of experience-related knoweldge. Null. 39 Philico: Still doesn't like Pi. Will refrain from voting for them. Null. 40 295864685th of the Midnight: The game is strangely wonderful. Null. 41 Philico: Midnight, you're so young. Null. 42 First of the Light: Votes Pi for instinct and simple process of elimination. I would like a better explanation for this, but with uneasy feelings, I accept it. 43 Twisp Winthrop: Light's list was incomplete. Null. 44 First of the Light: Corrects list. Null. 45 Philico: Agrees with Light's proposal without reasoning. This also strikes me as odd, but it is the first day, so there is little we can analyse. 46 295864685th of the Midnight: Comments on Winthrop's luck. Null. 47 Twisp Winthrop: Asks what Midnight means. Null. 48 Second of the Dawn: Clarifies earlier point. Wants to delay lynching someone. Since they are new, I will allow this dissident viewpoint. 49 Fourth of the Dark: Dawn is wrong. Null. 50 Philico: Lynch analysis is good. Null. 51 Twisp Winthrop: Need to vote for info. Null. 52 Third of the Midnight: No info, will return. Null. 53 Second of the Dawn: Considers Aviars the best source of information. Null. 54 First of the Clouds: Agrees with Dawn. Null. 55 Philico: True, but lynch begets more discussion. Null. 56 Fourth of the Dark: New trappers are fools. Null. 57 Twisp Winthrop: Will not vote Pi since they have just returned. Wary of Dark for communicating via journal entries. 58 Pi of the Book: A reads list. Most elim reads are retaliatory in nature. [Note: I am personally offended at your disdain for my method of communications. I cry ableism and prejudice.] Null. 59 Philico: Releases Pi as they are returning from the mainland. Calls for Lord Silberfarben to wake up. Null. 60 Twisp Winthrop: Asks some questions. Null. 61 295864685th of the Midnight: Answers Winthrop's question. Null. 62 295862685th of the Midnight. Asks a question. Null. Alas, this person is so new that they do not even know the rules of common courtesy. 63 Pi of the Book: Tells Midnight that they need to provide info. Null. 64 First of the Light: Voting Pi because no other targets avail themselves and because they are very retaliatory. Null. 65 295864685th of the Midnight: Apologises for their complete lack of manners. Thinks Pi or Philico are traitors based on instinct. Null. 66 Pi of the Book: Acknowledges retaliatory nature. Death will clear Cloud. Thinks Light is an elim for inexplicable reasons. Null. 67 Philico: Thinks Pi hasn't been responding well, but doesn't see too much suspicion. Null. 68 Twisp Winthrop: Agrees, but thinks things are strange. Null. 69 First of the Bone: Very busy, shall return. Null. 70 Pi of the Book: Concedes, departs. Null. 71 First of the Bone: Likes Philico, Light, and Winthrop. Null. 72 Patji: A nightmaw screeched, reminding us all that night was falling soon. Discussion would soon end, and we would have to sleep. 73 Twisp Winthrop: Fears the nightmaw. Null. First of the Clouds has an Aviar. First of the Person either doesn't have an Aviar or doesn't have one that activates traps. Twisp Winthrop and Pi of the Book are probably not both traitors. First of the Light has voted for PI of the Book with little reasoning. Light has been helpful, so I'm inclined to think the best of them, but the lack of reasoning still strikes me as odd despite our complete lack of information. I personally do not think Pi is an elim, but their defensive nature makes me reconsider. No one is saying anything that makes me think they have a particular alignment. Speak more, so that I might know more. The nightmaw is a fearsome predator, with a preternatural sense of smell and the ability to track minds. They will not find us because of our precautions, but anyone out wandering in the night risks being devoured. I fear it as I should not. I long for the power of the outsiders, with their weapons that strike down these beasts. I long for the untouched sanctity of Patji, before the outsiders. I long for a life untouched by fear. These wishes are contradictory. I am of Patji's brood, and yet I long to strike it down. I refuse to be wrong. I refuse to concede. I refuse to die here, now, struck down by this island among many, as a trapper among many, with no distinction or recognition. I refuse to be another meaningless tragedy. Like no trapper before me, I shall be remembered. The Pantheon itself will be outlived by my legacy. So I declare, and so it shall be done.

The river is the ocean is the water is the blood. Here is the place where nothing ends.

If you are willing to pretend that everything is anything, you are willing to do anything for nothing. I ask only this.

The new trappers are so inexperienced. Do they truly think that we can trust the "Spy" to tell us the truth? Surely they see the danger in an elim claiming spy, or an elim who claims that the Spy is lying. Surely they see the inability of us plebs to confirm anything? Let us think of the possible scenarios. 1. We don't lynch, someone dies tonight, and the Aviar receive information. Elims easily hide on the first day by not saying much, blending into a backdrop of no discussion since everyone wishes to save their kill for later. We are in the same position, only down a trapper. 2. We lynch, someone dies tonight, the Aviar receive information, and we have trapper-trapper interactions to discuss. We can see who advocates leaving people alive, who piles onto a mild suspicion, who seems to be behaving oddly. We receive the same information overnight as we would, but if we lynch on the first day, we learn more. The day one lynch used to be a contentious issue, but now, it is mostly accepted as a matter of course. Aviar can be caught in traps, leaving our information sources gone, but lynching someone ensures public discussion.

This is the end. The ultimate bootstrap paradox. This is the beginning. The beginning is the end is the beginning is the end is the beginning is the end is the beg

Second of the Dawn thinks we should avoid killing someone until we have information. Fool. Do they not realise that killing people is how we gain information? The Traitors will kill someone ever night, and they kill people who are obviously trappers. This will not offer us much information, so we must gain information of our own by seeing how people react to killing someone. In particular, Traitors, with their foreknowledge of who is good and evil, may react differently than their ignorant counterparts. To take control of our source of knowledge, we must kill. Though Aviar can teach us many things, they risk the lives of their trappers via traps and Traitors, so best not to rely on that source. I hope the new trappers survive long enough to learn these things, though when Patji actively plots your death, that is a little difficult. Most trappers, even traitors, prefer to leave the new ones alive for a little bit. Traitors for their relatively low worth compared to taking out more experienced targets, trappers for the safety of the new generation. Patji has no such qualm, and kills without mercy.

There are sixteen of us. The wise ones say that 20-25% of our number are Traitors. There are 16 of us, so 3-4. If they have a Good-Looking, which is likely though not set in stone, I would assume there are 3. If not, there are probably 4. Five would be excessive, unless an unordinary amount of us have Spies. Concerning the Spy: There is a 15% chance of the test being wrong. This means that about 1 in 7 trials will be wrong. This seems acceptable, though be wary of liars and killing a trapper with a valuable Aviar. The prospective victim should have a chance to plead their case, and the Aviar Spy can check if they have a valuable Aviar. If the victim flips village, the Spy should be scanned by an Aviar Spy to make sure they are not lying. The Spy and Aviar Spy in conjunction seems the best, though co-ordination without PMs seems difficult, as it involves regaling the public with one's plans or trusting a go-between. If the test is repeated, there is a 72.25% of the result being the same and right, a 2.25% of the result being the same and wrong, and a 25.5% of the result being different. If the test is administered thrice. there is a 61.4125% of the result being the same and right, a .3375% of the result being the same and wrong, a 32.5125% of the result being 2 right and 1 wrong, and a 5.7375% chance of the result being 2 wrong and 1 right. Obviously, repeating the test indefinitely is not advisable, but a second examination would be prudent. [I'm going to be playing through RP entirely, with a framework of my posts being journal entries.]

This is the first time I have seen such a large gathering of Trappers in one place. We are solitary creatures by nature, but circumstance has forced us to come together. Many of the Trappers have Aviar that I have never seen before, though I have heard of most of them. The following are my notes concerning the birds. Healer: As the name implies, it is a healing bird. Sadly, its powers have a limit. Those killed by mob justice or the dreaded nightmaw will remain dead, regardless of whether or not he possess a Healer. It can protect you from the traps that every Trapper lays, but why would a person need to be protected from the penance owed for being so clumsy as to be caught? Perhaps a Traitorous Trapper could take advantage of this to ensure that their Aviar remains unbothered during the stalking hours. It can protect from the Traitorous Trapper's knife, so all can take advantage. It can't protect the same person twice, for some reason. I wonder why, but I feel it might be some strange whim of Patji, to encourage interaction between Trappers. Father does love bloodshed, after all. Spy: This bird is a relatively new discovery, possessing powers of camouflage and stealth. The Traitorous Trappers cannot possibly possess any of these birds since as far as I recall, only one person, its discoverer, has it. Perhaps he has shared it with another, but I doubt it. It is incredibly powerful, capable of discovering people's thoughts. However, it is still only a bird, and it misunderstands many things. He who owns this bird, be cautious. The Traitors are aiming for your head in particular. Aviar Spy: Despite its similar name to the Spy, it is quite different. While the Spy is stealthy, capable of overhearing many things and repeating it back, the Aviar Spy can detect what worm sits in an Aviar's belly by mere proximity. Of course, no Trapper would let a strange Aviar near his birds, so it must be stealthy or risk being fended off. Understandable, I wouldn't want another Trapper knowing the ability of my Aviar either. Good-Looking: Whoever named this bird has a sense of humor. This is one of the plainer bird species, greatly resembling a Hidden Aviar in both plumage and mannerisms. From a certain point of view, it could almost be called ugly. This Aviar shields a Trapper's thoughts, making him appear innocent and not murderous to a Spy. In addition, the shielding makes it appear as Hidden to an Aviar Spy. No normal Trapper would waste his time getting this Aviar, so any who have it must be a Traitor. Hidden: This bird shields the mind from prying ears, keeping it safe from those that stalk in the night. Its plumage perfectly blends in with the foliage, and the shielding is quite effective. I have encountered a few of these birds. My cousin owned one before he died and my uncle took care of it. They are unquestionably useful, but only in that one case. In addition, any Hidden might in fact be a disguise for a Good-Looking, so be wary. Don't actively target them, but recognise the danger in trusting one with this bird. Messenger: This bird allows for private communications via a neural link between two minds. Communications only last a single day, but renewal is a valid option. However, continually speaking to many people seems impossible, since the bird can only connect two minds at once. I personally don't see the merit in this bird, but some people prefer secret communications. Aviar Trapper: This bird is personally offensive to me, having fallen victim to it in the past. It mimics the mating plumage of its target and draws it away for as long as it wants. Fortunately, it can only trap one bird at a time, and if the Trapper is killed, the bird it trapped is released. It is certainly useful, but I do not think it will ever be something I willingly embrace. Another of my cousins used this bird to play a cruel trick on me when we were young, and I have never forgiven him for it. Nightmaw: For some strange reason, the Traitors revere these dreaded beasts, and long to release one upon this camp. While they do not, there is still hope. I believe their tamed nightmaw is significantly less dangerous than the wild ones, eating perhaps one or two bodies before being sated. It follows orders and understands targets, though it might eat its commander along the way. I hope I never have to see one of these things again, even if it is tamed. Of course, Patji will probably send one my way now, to test me and my skill. Traps: Many Aviar require their Trapper to visit another, risking being caught in their traps. The more experienced among us can avoid them with ease, but the young will struggle. Sadly, the Traitors are too skilled to be caught in traps while they slaughter people. Truly a shame. The knife I keep tucked up my sleeve will come in handy these long, cold nights with killers on the prowl. Perhaps it will take a life one of these days. Perhaps my hands will remain clean, and Patji will take the life in my stead. My Aviar chirps softly, though I do not understand the language. Perhaps it is warning me of my future, of the death that lies before me, inevitable as Patji's hate. I have already written my farewell, and my list of dates grows ever longer, and yet I still wish to live. Dangerous, on an island that hates us as much as we love it, but I want to live, and so Patji must die. I do not ask for forgiveness, nor do I want it. I feel no guilt, no shame. This is the course I have chosen, and though it has turned me against my fellow Trappers, I stand resolute. As the water erodes away at Patji's form, so too must I erode away at Patji's children. This is how I will kill Patji. This is how I will be free.

Future time leavened the loaf

Kindle the flame, burn the G.R.A.I.N. from the chaff.

Bear and Goose at the end.

I just got an upvote for a post about 200 pages back.

In strawberry flavor, it's a coventry of covenants.

That's a covenant of covenants [or a coventry of coventries. Use differs depending on which flavor of English you speak]

Fear the noighww woehiand the vjeowitj will awoithowjef in otwljifa;vn oawijtoefdjckan

Yes. A coven of coventries is a covenant. Typically used for war.

The ageoi of adisut and soefuojing is fallen forl kn gracdle. Helil is haoewfoieraoen and aoweiufo anet hteo wilasdame tiolwekdm. Thodsfww isoeiho wliehtrlfisjdatjaneo.

The iroosd of a roosting pteoirjsanidon is truliy a soighrt to bowfehoild. Mangioficent oihandf fsdfaa marlfeiousd fbhgrweation aotl objwerfovie.

A coven of witches is 13 witches. A coven of covens is a coventry.

Imagine having a void parewojgment specifically foireoowh the engae of alll threiwof ofoid jrun flying eoiwjflsdf fand oirgi ejnovibjnla.

Battle, we fight via insults, @Fezzik face me, so I'll face Fezzik, insulting via fights, we battle @Ark1002 battle @Channelknight Fadran, insulting ferociously, fighting endless fights, ferociously insulting Fadran, Channelknight battling Ark1002. [Translation: Come fight, you worthless cretins.]

I have nothing to reveal that you will not learn upon my death. Do not trust Elkanah just because they are talkative. I will be surprised if Lotus survives the night. I hope that you receive useful insight upon my demise. Sidenote: After some thought, I have come to the realisation that claiming elim constantly may not be the best thing to do. In the future, I shall be considering different strategies, maybe even not claiming elim for once. I seek the general populace's thoughts on the strategy. What you like, what you dislike, whether you would lynch me on principle, whether it actually provides any benefit at all. [Though, in reviewing the incidents of my administration I am unconscious of intentional error, I am nevertheless too sensible of my defects not to think it probable that I may have committed many errors. I shall also carry with me the hope that my country will view them with indulgence] Farewell, my enemies. May your joys be fleeting and your sorrows be immeasurable.

Non sequiturs only, my darling. Baring your teeth at the dinner table is not at all appropriate for a species of your nature. Logic is lost amidst the non-sensicality of the frail.

Pretty much, yes. I would rather lynch an adjudicator than a random with a risk of losing the most important role the village has or increasing the Market prices, and it does help that I don't understand why village!Lotus would claim [if this is just a new playstyle not working out, I apologise]. A village adjudicator acts with the same imperfect knowledge as the rest of us. Any person they trust enough to protect from the lynch would be a person too trusted to be lynched in the first place. While you did, I didn't feel comfortable with piling onto what amounted to a number of poke votes. Besides, Venture retracted. I thank you for your absolution. That's... what I mean. Am I just really bad at phrasing things? Do I let my paranoia slip into the tone of my posts? A curse upon my traitorous hands. While being the harbinger of chaos is enjoyable, I do think that it hampers my ability to analyse the game. Alternatively, I could be playing the long game and merely appearing to not want chaos while I plot to cause mass hysteria. I have a tunnelling problem. At the time, no one else supported me in a Lotus lynch, which made me suspect that I was chasing phantom rabbits in the ocean. Now that hunters have joined me on this expedition, I feel more confident in my convictions and reasoning.