Golstar

I agree. One thing we don't have an answer for yet, is who Odium was referring to at the Battle of Thaylen when Honor's Perpendicularity was opened. Did Cultivation have a hand in Honor's splintering? Did she see the slow decline of Tanavast into madness, and then conspire with Odium to kill Tanavast and splinter Honor - but at the condition of leaving the Stormfather alive as memento? That would explain why Odium seems mostly uninterested in fighting Cultivation - he wants to get off world rather than splinter Cultivation, which is highly suspect. It also explains why he cant destroy Stormfather - it would be involve breaking his word and create an opening for Cultivation, quite similar to how breaking the terms of the Contest of Champions would leave him vulnerable. Perhaps Cultivation played the long game here as well - letting Odium splinter Honor and 'kill' Tanavast. I suspect Tanavast may still be roaming the Cognitive Realm in the guise of Nohadon. The may even indicate Cultivation has a hand in the weird body-creation shenanigans at the end of the book. I'm not sure of that, but it's a possibility. Tanavast and Nohadon Honor as a shard was splintered, and "lives in the hearts of men". That's why radiant spren cross over seeking humans to bond - they're instinctively seeking out investiture. I think Kaladin is special, as he constantly inspires those around him and seems to have an almost supernatural charisma. He is a true child of honor and Syl sought him out for that reason. He is Stormblessed after all. Could Syl be key in reforming the shard? If Honor lives in the hearts of men, it explains why Odium wants to twist them and keep them locked in a state of war. War is Odium+Honor - it's his way to co-opt the splinters and keep them from reforming. I think humans acting in accordance with Honor strengthens the Shard and brings it close to reforming. The spren are the cognitive realm imprint of human Honor. That doesn't exist on other shardic worlds, because other realms don't have Honor investiture in the hearts of men. When the radiant oaths are spoken a ton of investiture is released in the vicinity - I see this as 'overflow' investiture from the human heart gaining an increased amount of investiture. Stormlight is volatile - it drives individuals to act, to release it. When spren bond humans, god metal is involved - god metals are the bodies of shards. So Honor is splintered, Tanavast is dead - but has two Cognitive Shadows - the Stormfather which the shadow of Honor and something else which is the shadow of Tanavast..The spren are key to reforming honor - if all radiant spren bond humans that's essentially the body of Honor reforming. Syl is special because she wasn't splintered by Odium, but by Honor himself prior to the death of Tanavast. She is the Ancient Daughter. Hence her radiant and her bond is special. I think the Recreance is tied to this somehow - that the speaking of words is part of the Cultivation of Honor. For some reason the Knights didn't want the process to continue - perhaps they realized they were perpetuating an eternal cycle of War and that Odium was never trying to 'win'. Every cycle was weakening Honor by splintering his investiture into the bonds. After the Recreance his vessel was killed by Odium - and he was left as Cognitive Shadow. The Stormfather was the cover story / splinter created by Cultivation. In Scadrial 'power' is gained by the consumption of god metal. I think on Roshar 'power' is gained by bonding with a spren, the regrown body of Honor. That is effectively providing Odium with weapons - as he can unmake Spren and co-opt them Splintering has to be more than just breaking a shard into chunks. I think the very process of splintering Honor involves more than we know - and I suspect it involves the Knights Radiant and broken oaths. Perhaps Odium tricked the Knights Radiant and spren into the Recreance to buy himself time to break Taln. Once the Recreance occurred - Cultivation agreed to the mercy killing of Tanavast and began plotting this long game. Meanwhile Odium began plotting to have someone speaking for Honor release him from his bond to Braize. These two plots have now clashed - and I suspect Cultivation isn't done yet. I don't think Dalinar is being groomed as the vessel for Honor. I think she wants a non-crazy Tanavast back, but without Odium around to mess with him. She wants Odium out of the system, and can then ressurect Honor. (and kill all Spren in the process as she needs them for Honor's body).

Syl is the Ancient Daughter. Honor lives in the hearts of men. Honor was splintered. She was the first splinter created by Honor. She is the "daughter" of Honor, not the Stormfather. She can return from death (Kaladin's dark days with Moash did kill her - without making her a deadeye). So Kaladin's secret sauce could be that constant investiture from the first splinter of Honor is connecting him every more tightly with Honor - who already lives, albeit splintered, in the hearts of Rosharans. He is Stormblessed. Who knows how much investiture Honor gave up in creating Syl? Shards can invest tremendous amounts of power without even using splinters (ie Scadrial shards). Note how Kaladin inspires loyalty in all around. How he draws adoration and almost veneration. From his days in Amaram's army to the events of RoW, he is different than the other radiants in his role as a figurehead. He awakens the hearts of Rosharans. He seems very similar to the heralds and fused in this regard. It may even become self-reinforcing. My theory can be summed up thusly: Kaladin is essentially Syl's mini-herald. His powers extend beyond the Nahel Bond.

I think this is a very valid theory. She mentioned that Taravangian was picked because he was a perfect match, which Rayse was not. We know from other Cosmere books that if the Vessel and Shard are not a good fit, bad things happen to both. It's not merely about tempering the Shard - it's also about being compatible enough. Dalinar is a stoic character which might prevent a slide into madness, such as occurred to Tanavast. He also has a pacifist duality to his previous warlike nature. He recognizes the evil of conflict - and may thus be less inclined to perpetuate an eternity of bloodshed and suffering to uphold Honor, seeking more peaceful solutions. Cultivation seems very shy and almost isolationistic. To me that seems somewhat counter to the growth aspect of the Shard. Roshar is an incredibly static place considering it is home to a Shard with the intent of Cultivation. She seems to be the Bonsai-tree style of Cultivation, maintaining a pristine garden, but with little evolution, which should be an aspect of Cultivation. Lift could represent a wilder, more chaotic form of Cultivation. Lift hates boredom and would not accept cultivating the same garden over and over. So she would be a good candidate as a successor. At the same time she hates changing, as you mention, so she has a compatible nature with Cultivation still. As for other shards - Cultivation may want to regrow them. Rayse wanted to break the other gods. Taravangian speaks of saving the Cosmere. He is certainly not benevolent, but he may be willing to act as the instrument that brings about a new generation of more suitable Vessels. Rayse wanted worship and adoration - he was a megalomaniac Odium, also seeming to thrive on the hatred of others far more than their adoration. Taravangian had a messiah-complex when he was mortal - so I suspect he will seek respect and adoration over hatred. He will gladly bear the hatred of the Cosmere to save it - in fact he probably prefers this to his previous role of acting in secret. I suspect Cultivation might have an end goal of reforming Adonalsium - that would be the ultimate Regrowth. Shattered into shards but then eventually brought back together, as a better version of what it was. Perhaps through a series of Harmony-like combinations. Speaking of 'better' Vessels: It's a shame Kelsier is dead, because he would've made the perfect Autonomy Vessel. His ability to recognize and nurture the best in others, would temper Autonomy, while his headstrong refusal to bend to even the laws of the Cosmere would fit well with Autonomy.

I'm not saying they are able to extinguish free will of a living creature, although in the case you mention that was the case except for a very special and brief moment. But I would say that we've seen Cognitive Shadows being 'weaker' than actual living creatures (which exist in all three realms). Either way the ability to influence and modify is tied to the amount of investiture, be that in a living creature or a CS. I'm not saying Nohadon is completely under the sway of a shard, but that it's possible that the imprint of the living Nohadon in the Cognitive realm, stayed behind as a Cognitive Shadow and was cultivated for some future purpose. As we've seen it done with Dalinar. Cultivation mentions that she's taking a risk investing in him, but she does so any way. Nohadon could be a similar thing. My point was just that I think the mechanics of Cognitive Shadows we've seen so far point at Nohadon either 1) a figment of Dalinar's own mind and "just" part of his dream - ie his own subconscious reminding of those most important steps to take or 2) The Cognitive Shadow of the historical person Nohadon, possibly modified by Cultivation. The ideal of Nohadon existing in the Spiritual Realm should not be able to manifest in the Physical or Cognitive Realm without investiture creating such an entity. I am not sure what the source of that investiture would be. I guess it would be akin to the Unmade. So I am not even saying it's impossible that the origin of the Nohadon in the dream is Spiritual Realm, but I just think the clues point more strongly at one of the other possibilities.

Yes, (Warbreaker spoilers) I think there's a lot of examples given of how Cognitive entities are malleable, for example Soulcasting. Whereas Hemalurgy is described as unique in how it modifies the Spirit Web, it seems the Cognitive is more open to tampering. I think this makes sense considering the Cognitive Realm is the realm of the mind. I think the following WoB gives a good perspective on the difference the amount of Investiture makes. I know there's a lot we haven't been told yet, but we've seen the ability of Investiture to create, modify and destroy matter and energy in the Physical Realm also extend to the Cognitive equivalents. So I would say the Cognitive is every bit as open to Shardic influence as the Physical. Whereas the Spiritual is relatively off-bounds.

I think it is plausible that this Nohadon is just a construct of Dalinar's own mind, and isn't any kind of Cognitive Shadow at all. One point against this is that Nohadon comments on the nature of the particular nightmare. That could just be Dalinar dreaming still, but it's a hint at least that is an actual outside influence. And if it is an actual Cognitive Shadow, then I don't think it acts in line with a Concept/Idea shadow. So I would think it's either a ghost-type shadow or something similar to what we see in Warbreaker: So we know that a Cognitive Shadow of a specific individual can be modified by the Shards. Dream-vision Nohadon could be a Cognitive Shadow modified by Honor and/or Cultivation, so that the personality of the original Nohadon is changed. The weird fixation on food is similar to that of Lift, which hints at Cultivation. I don't think we've seen many examples of communication into and out of the Spiritual Realm. Evi reaching out during the Perpendicularity moment is one example. The other Cosmere books show limited opportunities for Cognitive Shadows to do this. But I seem to remember a Vessel commenting that the Spritual Realm is opaque even to them. So I think it is highly unlikely that dream-Nohadon is a Spiritual Realm entity. Having one such communicate without a Perpendicularity seems very unlikely to me. So my bet would be on Cultivation meddling with Nohadon's (ghost) Cognitive Shadow and helping it stick around. She's shown a talent for playing the long game, and the historical arc of Nohadon seems to fit Cultivation's modus operandi.

Mistborn: Secret History spoilers

I think it's tied to the Everstorm. Perpendicularities tend to occur in places with a lot of solid/liquid investiture. Cultivation's perpendicularity is in the Horneater Peaks - perhaps hinting that Crem is tied to Cultivation. I have a feeling that Odium has hijacked some of Honor's investiture and is using it to recycle Fused (as the Everstorm).

Hoid usually doesn't just observe events. He tells stories and listens to stories. He prods and facilitates the actions of important individuals. He tends to appear when the situation is dire, but not critical. And he almost always collects something. If there is a flashback to these events involving Hoid, I think it's much more likely that he'll be around before or after the action. I can't remember whether it's told when he became Elhokar's Wit.

Another candidate for the final truth could be that he always knew how to be a hero and a great king, but was too afraid to act on it. That he was lying when he asked those around him to teach him how to be a hero or that he wanted to figure out how to be a great king. Elhokar's story is really one of the most tragic in the Stormlight Archive, in my opinion. A man trying so hard to be better, painfully aware of not just his shortcomings but his failure to rise to be a better man, when all around him are doing just that. Finally, when he has a chance to take a step towards growth and redemption, it's stolen by Moash. The greatest villainy of Moash isn't his betrayal of Bridge Four. It's what he takes from Elhokar. He kills him just as he's about to become a better man.

Rosharans use Spren for anything which is pulled from the Cognitive Realm to the Physical Realm. If you look at Kelsier and Leras in Mistborn, they exist only in the Cognitive Realm, but can still affect the Physical Realm, and Kelsier actually contacts Spook in a dream. Dalinar sees the non-automaton version of Nohadon in a dream, perhaps this is related to how Kelsier contacts Spook during the Catacendre? We have seen no examples of Cognitive Shadows which transition to the Spiritual Realm and come back. We've seen the Returned peer into the Spiritual Realm, we've seen Dalinar open a connection to it, we've seen Ascending Vessels learn about the past from the Spiritual Realm. If Nohadan exists in any way in the Cognitive Realm, he is a Cognitive Shadow of something - the individual Nohadon and/or the memory/concept of Nohadon. I agree that Spren is wrong when he's never manifested in the Physical Realm, but I think spirit is also wrong, assuming he still has a presence in the Cognitive Realm. Spren can actually be non-sentient I believe. Isn't that the distinction between the True spren and the others? Sentience requires a Spirit Web, so I guess that means a lesser Spren is lacking a Spirit Web.

Speaking of Nohadon and the Way of Kings: It's interesting how Dalinar and Gavilar let the book guide them, but in rather dissimilar ways. Gavilar served the Sons of Honor, a group epitomizing "the-ends-justify-the-means", elitism and acceptable losses, whereas Dalinar highlights restraint (the story of Hogman's murder), self-sacrifice and defeat-over-dishonor. Yet everyone describe both individuals as being greatly inspired by the book. Are they both cherry-picking? Is Dalinar seeing his own idealized version of Nohadon or was Gavilar really that deluded? Perhaps Odium was playing the long con, grooming Dalinar to bind the Stormfather (by having Gavilar pass on the Way of Kings and the Codes so powerfully), only to then lure him into breaking his oath and "killing" the Stormfather? If so, perhaps, the existence of a Cognitive Shadow of Nohadon - be it as the "ghost" of an actual historical figure or as a Spren of the Ideal King - was instrumental in foiling this? Of course alongside the machinations of Cultivation in pruning Dalinar. Shards are somewhat blind to the investiture of other shards, so perhaps Odium unwittingly brought Dalinar to the attention of Nohadon, through simple ignorance of the existence of a Nohadan spren.

It's possible. But we are due some surprising twists - and I think "dead" being not quite what we think would be in line with things we've seen before. An alternative theory is that Tanavast splintered pretty much *all* his remaining power into the Stormfather and then went to fight Odium with only enough investiture to stay alive. That would be incredibly dumb, but also very Honorable. Either way Odium retreating when the Perpendicularity appears has to mean something. Odium is not a coward. All Perpendicularities require the presence of massive concentrations of investiture. I think the Everstorm is key here, regardless of the rest of my theory - it would make sense if was yet another splinter of Honor. The Stormfather also says "The Everstorm. It is a new thing, but old of design.", "They call for a storm. My opposite. Deadly." Come to think of it - could the Everstorm be the Sibling? The Spren responsible for recycling Cognitive Shadows (ie Fused and Heralds)? If Nohadon was bound to the Everstorm/Sibling, this would make sense of Odium saying "I thought we killed you?" when the perpendicularity appears. Perhaps he sees Nohadon hanging around in the Cognitive Realm hitching a ride on the Everstorm. If the Everstorm is a Spren which is invested with Odium's power - like how the Stormfather has Honor's power - it would make sense that Odium freaks out when he senses that he's not fully in charge of it. From Mistborn we know that investiture can be hijacked. Honor hijacking Odium's investiture via a Bondsmith would be funny. That would probably also make Odium really, really hate Bondsmiths, and those who bond Sibling in particular.

I think Nohadon is dead, but that his Cognitive Shadow is still around. If Kelsier can stick around as a Cognitive Shadow after being killed, through sheer force of will (and some investiture from Preservation perhaps), then I'm sure a Bondsmith could do it if the Sibling is still around. This would also explain why noone can bond the Sibling - there is already a bond in place. When Dalinar summons the Perpendicularity, the three realms are joined and Odium can see Nohadon lurking around (like how Kelsier was lurking around Vin a lot of the time). This confuses Odium, perhaps because he doesn't understand how a mere human can stick around as a Cognitive Shadow (Leras did it for thousands of years, so Odium probably knows a Vessel can do this). We know from Harmony that a Shard can regrow a physical form and reattach the Cognitive Shadow. Nale does this with Szeth. Harmony offers this to Vin and Elend (and lies to Kelsier). I think we could see Nohadon return if someone manages to recreate his physical form (and he's willing to return). Cultivation could probably do this. She is about growing things after all.

I think that's intentional misdirection - we're never told this directly. We're told the Stormfather is a sliver, a splinter, a memory. This is all true. We know that Honor "altered" the Stormfather shortly before the Recreance (OB 113). We know the Stormfather is *a* cognitive shadow. But a Cognitive Shadow can mean many things - a Spren or the "soul" of an object. The Vessel Tanavast has a Cognitive Shadow - like Leras had. This cannot be the same thing as the Stormfather - they've existed at the same time. Cognitive Shadows of people look like the people themselves. Secret History of Mistborn has a lot of details on how Cognitive Shadows, Shards and Vessels work. The whole Preservation vs Ruin imbalance is caused by a Vessel which is dead in the Physical Realm, but still exists in the Cognitive Realm. When a vessel dies, the shard seeks a new Vessel. I think this would go for even a splintered shard. Keeping the Cognitive Shadow alive, like Ati did with Leras, is an excellent way to stay on top. When Leras died, the scales tipped immediately. Odium is crafty. I think he's tricked Tanavast into allowing himself to be killed, but has kept the Cognitive Shadow alive. If Honor had been fully killed, his Shard could seek a new Vessel. Odium doesn't want it. I would not be surprised if the Cognitive Shadow of Tanavast is somehow linked to the Everstorm. If we then speculate that Honor splintered himself and invested the Stormfather with a sliver of his power, the previous investiture held by Honor is now found as a weakened remnant in Tanavast's CS and in the Stormfather. Dalinar opens Honor's Perpendicularity at the Battle of Thaylen City. If the Everstorm contains Honor's Cognitive Shadow, then this could explain how and why this happened at this time and place. Honor's Investiture was concentrated in one place - Everstorm, Stormfather, a couple Heralds and tons of Spren and Radiants. This allowed the Perpendicularity to be opened - and the weakening caused by Cognitive Shadow of Tanavast not having a presence in the Physical Realm is counter-acted. Essentially the Bondsmith acts as an anchor to replace missing Physical form of the Vessel. Odium fears that this would allow Dalinar to ascend - and we know from Mistborn that a Shard is the most dangerous immediately after Ascension, before Intent starts making the Vessel inflexible. Dalinar is a fierce and crafty enemy. Odium doesn't risk destruction, but perhaps he could risk some kind of bonding or imprisonment. So he runs away. I'm not sure the splintering of Honor has been done to the degree of the other splintered shards - and that what Odium wants is to splinter Honor further or somehow imprison the Cognitive Shadow of Tanavast while the splinters (spren) fight it out in eternal war. Odium is not Ruin. He is not a simple destructive force. He's really good at splintering and defeating other shards. I think this is not via brute force, but through manipulation and turning them against themselves.He makes them expend themselves to fight him. Fight him and he wins. He wants to be fought. I may be wrong on my theory, but I think we'll see some kind of twist regarding the nature of Honor's splintering and Tanavast's death. It's not simply the shattered memories of Honor being left to be picked up by the heroes and wielded as weapons in an unequal fight with Odium. Rayse is a cunning and malicious individual - I think he has a weakness related to how Tanavast died. My best guess is that he's using Honor's own power to fuel the war, somehow using the switcheroo to appropriate the power - similar to how Hemalurgy can be used to take over the investiture of other shards. Hemalurgy deals with stealing the Spirit Web. Perhaps Voidbinding deals with corrupting the Cognitive Shadow somehow - allowing proxy access to the investiture. What if the Unmade (being Odium splinters) are using voidbinding to corrupt Honor splinters? And what if the Everstorm is a voidbound Cognitive Shadow of Tanavast. Red means "non-native" shardic investiture. Red lightning and red eyes - voidbound Spren and Cognitive Shadows. Sja-Anat is the real kicker here. When we learn more about how this Unmade has gained free will of sorts, I think we will understand Odium's investiture. I think this is also why the Ghostbloods want her. She's key to understanding a threat to more than just Roshar.

Switcheroo Odium lead humans against Singers on Roshar. The Singers wield the investiture of Honor, binding. Odium corrupts the losing Singers (he's good at corrupting) and abandons the humans. Honor is a sucker for redemption and takes the party of the betrayed humans. Corrupted Singers are invested by Odium, so they can return and take vengeance. Braize, The Everstorm and the Oathpact Honor selects 10 Odium-invested humans, names them Heralds and make them bond to Braize somehow Heralds are reborn on Braize in the Everstorm As long as the Heralds are on Braize anything else stuck up there can't return to Roshar - they just get reborn in the Everstorm Odium isn't on Braize, but the Fused are, and they torture the Heralds until one breaks and the Everstorm returns to Roshar The Oathpact involves voluntary return to Braize to help out the other Heralds, so they can help each other resist the torture Each Honorblade binds an Unmade to Braize Radiants and Honor Weakening Honor is weakened by increasingly divesting investiture to create Nahel Bonds between Spren and Radiants After many Desolations investing in increasing number of Spren and Bonds, he's so weak that he fails to stop the Heralds from abandoning Taln The Honorblades don't go to Braize, so 9 Unmade stick around on Roshar Taln binds the Everstorm (10th Unmade and perhaps Odium's Perpendicularity) to Braize Fall of Tanavast and Unity of Dalinar The weakened Tanavast is baited by the suffering of Taln to go to Braize and try to bind the Unmade himself Odium kills Tanavast, and like Leras on Scadrial, this greatly weakens Honor Like on Scadrial the Cognitive Shadow of Tanavast can stick around carrying the shard Odium imprisons the weakened Shadow of Honor on Braize - it's a prison with special rules and those rules can be used to keep Shadow-Tanavast stuck up there Dalinar summoning the perpendicularity may have allowed Shadow-Tanavast to return to Roshar unless Odium rushed back to Braize to act as the jailor So while Honor is splintered and dead, the cognitive shadow still exists on Braize. Odium does not want the shadow to "die". When the cognitive shadow of Leras died by investing all remaining power into Vin, the resulting Shard-Vessel combination was much more powerful. A vessel cannot simply transition to the Spiritual Realm on death. Rayse/Odium baited Tanavast/Honor to Braize and killed him there. It's not Odium who is jailed on Braize - it's Honor. What does Odium want? He hates everything and wants to be hated. He wants to splinter all other shards. So he's probably going for Cultivation. How to bait out Cultivation, the shard that doesn't invest permanently much? Salt the earth. Desolation. Where nothing grows. He needs to get rid off the Stormfather and Dalinar as those two can transport Tanavast off Braize.

I don't think this should be taken as a literal canon prophecy of unerring accuracy. I believe the Sleepless have been confirmed as being part of Mistborn Era 4 (WoB). I seem to remember the events of the Stormlight Archive books taking place before Mistborn Era 2. I guess the Era 4 could involve one or a few survivors of an event destroying the Sleepless, but I think the "redeemer and destroyer" should taken as an expectation, rather than foresight. However, I do think one of the Radiants will cause destruction beyond what we've seen so far. I think Kaladin-Destroyer would be taking his tragedy too far into grimdark. Dalinar-Destroyer would be ruining his redemption and growth. Shallan-Destroyer is what everyone expects, but would also be almost unfairly tragic. She's been on a tragic trajectory from her early childhood, and having her arc end up in a dark place would be a denial of agency counter to the struggle we've been shown. Also remember that Hoid spends a lot of time on Shallan - I think this is for the very purpose of aiding her have the choice and opportunity to rise above her tragic circumstances and broken soul. This leaves Szeth. I think Szeth will end up a Destroyer. He's carrying Nightblood, he was insane prior to his death and while he is not evil, he does not have much humanity left to redeem. I think he will end up causing terrible destruction out of (what he perceives as) necessity. Perhaps he will end up a new vessel for Odium. Unlike the ego-centric, almost solipsistic Rayse he doesn't merely hate others and desire their hatred in return. He hates himself far more than he hates others. His hatred of the outside world is also strangely naive. My take on the candidates: Szeth will destroy to defeat Rayse - take up Odium. The shard will be transition from passionate, self-aggrandizing vessel of hatred to a volatile but humble vessel of hatred. One who embraces that he deserves to be hated, but who also embodies the fiery hatred of vengeance and retribution.

Roshar if destroying it would leave the Dawnblade(s) out in the open. Scadrial if Roshar being destroyed would take the Dawnblade(s) with it.

I haven't - I was referencing a WoB which itself references Dragonsteel Prime, but I've edited my post to remove any ambiguity and the details of the event mentioned. As for being sliver of Adonalsium: Reading that Brandon quote, it's evident that Hoid is not a sliver. But perhaps one could consider it from a different angle. Perhaps it's more akin to the investiture and influence that are imparted to all things by Shards. We know that Odium has a reduced capacity for influencing Roshar as it predates his arrival - but Ruin and Preservation are capable of much more direct manipulation on Scadrial due to their role as creators in that place. Could Hoid's powers simply be the result of investiture predating the Shattering, and thus while not a sliver of Adonalsium, as he never held a great deal of power derived from it. So perhaps the correct term would be that he is a human invested with a splinter of Adonalsium? As in he has a more than "normal" investiture that is part of every sentient creature.

True, I meant to write sliver and not splinter, but I'll keep my original mistake in the post, so your reply doesn't appear nonsensical. My hypothesis comes from the fact that Hoid is has supposedly been effectively killed, but is still around. So I guessed he was perhaps Adonalsium's hope for what that person should and/or could become. He's been confirmed to be immortal to the point that is lack of ability to inflict physical harm is the primary barrier to him being an unfair opponent in a hypothetical king of the hill scenario. But the mystery surrounding him is pretty cool, so I'm looking forward to leaning more. But I actually hope he's not a schemer and a planner from pre-shattering with far-reaching plans, but more of a drifter and storyteller with a connection to Adonalsium that gives him a special place in the Cosmere. I do think the almost diametrical nature of Rayse and Hoid is an important part of his character.

He talks about needing something from the world. This matches his previous visits to shardworlds - he visits, interacts and collects. I really don't think the act of planning is something that fits him. He goes where he is needed, and it's even been stated he usually doesn't know why (source). He seems driven to collect and recount, but is he really mastermind and a planner? He could be a story imagined by Adonalsium before the shattering - brought into existence as a story about stories Hoid has a very specific beef with Rayse/Odium - in my view of Hoid this is because of how the vessel manifests Odium which is self-centered, hungry to be given responsibility for all things, subverting free will of others and making everything about him. Hoid is the opposite - he is never responsible, he encourages free will, he keeps the story flowing, while he picks up bits and pieces to use in future events. I see him as Adonalsium's wonder at the consequences of free will and sentience. The 17th Shard hunt him as he is fundamentally interventionist, even he if absolves himself of responsibility, perhaps because his intervention is more of an interception - working to prevent the Shards smothering the Cosmere and taking away the "human" (/insert other sentient) element. The Third Oathbringer Letter does speak of an 'endeavour', but it also includes Harmony mentioning being the least equipped of all to aid with this. So I won't rule out that I'm reading a too abstract nature into Hoid's quest. But I do think the letters are about seeking assistance against Rayse, rather than a more far-reaching goal. But I think we'll have a much better understanding of what Hoid is trying to accomplish on Roshar after Rhythm of War. My guess is a relatively simple desire to foil Rayse, get assistance from greater powers in making sure Odium finds a more sustainable place in the Cosmere - and after that, it's back to telling and collecting stories.

I think it's more than simply being sprenlike. He was beheaded during events on Yolen. A higher spren even remarks of his similitary to them. This is interesting as spren are supposed to be splinters, and thus be tied to one of the shards of Adonalsium. But as Hoid did not take a Shard, his link must be of a different origin. Hoid at one point claims that he does not get become wiser or stranger. He claims to have begun life "as a thought, a concept, words on a page". To me his current state seems linked to the Spiritual Realm, as the other realms allow for growth and change. He is perhaps a sentient splinter of Adonalsium from the Spritual Realm, somehow able to transition to the other realms, similar to how Rosharan spren can transition from the Cognitive Realm to the Physical Realm under certain circumstances. Investiture is primarily of the Spiritual Realm. He gathers stories and investiture. If the shards are an aspect of creation - perhaps Hoid is the splinter of some part of Adonalsium which defies description - and thus cannot be attributed to any shard. That which transcends. This also mirrors the way Hoid speaks about stories - he refuses to define them. He uses the ephemereal and the transient to tell stories: light, smoke and sand. If Hoid is the echo of existence wondering at itself of the unknowable - then he does not have a specific goal we can pin down. He is a spren of fortune, happenstance and the unfolding stories of the cosmere. He is a chaotic and independent entity, but by nature unable to interfere through means beyond his stories. He shares his fortune with inhabitants of the cosmere - but he is a collector and a catalyst.of stories, he is not one to decide when a story ends. It must unfold to be collected. He facilitates events and even steals objects. I am not waiting for a master plan from Hoid to reforge Adonalsium or change some rules. I expect to see him on a quest to keep the story moving. He is not trying to defeat or help Shards, but is an (not un-)witting agent of Fortune. A spren needs a sentient connection to be sentient in the Physical Realm. Maybe Hoid needs tell, participate in or learn stories to exist outside of the Spiritual Realm.