Mat
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dskjabhlidfjbvlaiuwvblwhyamIdoingthiskjsnfjsnvkajbefkjavbk Shard of Reading, I'm sorry. I'm also sorry for Experience. Good luck with these changes And I really am going to bed now.
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I don't like how I mentioned a gut read on Reading and then you voted on him, and when I switched to Ash you decided to 'take a look at him' and be willing to leave Reading alone after previously... not. A lot of people have been reading you as village for activity. It's probably nothing. Yes, alignments are revealed upon death. (ninja'd)
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He's not marked for death, just marked for examination. Yeeeeah you're active and all but I don't like that. I mean, that's fair. Ahhhhhh what am I doing... Ashbringer. If you were an elim you'd have been more careful and not joined that train, probably. Maybe I'll just not vote.
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On one hand, I probably will be voting Reading D2, so you're right. But on the other hand, you're right when you say you don't want to vote him out D1. I'll let him play more tomorrow and see what I think.
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Because Silber was an unintentional candidate and I think Ash's vote on him was kinda weird. I personally am not since Gears has been voted out D1 like 3 or 4 games in a row and Reading is a returning player (so should be treated as new, at least for a little while)
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@Illwei @JesterLavorre Ashbringer as an alternative. @Ashbringer
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...Well, I just got back, and I really need to read the end of D3 now. How'd that happen? I mean, it's a timely swing, but Venture was way ahead last I saw... I guess this soft clears Lotus some more. (Also, what was the vote count @Kynedath? It's not in the writeup) Kinda annoyed I read Ventyl as slight village... I guess I need to figure out how to read chaotic players. I am curious on who else mentioned a village read on Ventyl though. If anyone did... Off to catch up on D3, and then bed. Bye!
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Real quick before I go to bed: Lord_Silberfarben
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It was a complete accident, I believe. A poke vote turned vote train. I'd rather not either.
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That's only the consensus because I poke voted him and I figured that since he was never active this would prevent a contribution crusade later. I'd rather have an actual D1 lynch. He hasn't posted.
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That's interesting, as I read Reading as elim... I agree with Straw that Reading's responses haven't been super reassuring, but considering the last game I remember him playing was in May, I think he deserves to live a little while longer. I also think that saying stuff about 'when I flip village' isn't suspicious.
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You forgot me Illwei and you pointed out something that I had forgotten: Your first real game in awhile is this. Shard of Reading, that list was good enough (plus the first game in a while thing) that I'll release you. @Lord_Silberfarben Lord_Silberfarben, you have been poked. I'm guessing that this would turn into a Contribution Crusade in future cycles when you're not active. So, speak, and this vote will be removed from you.
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Yes, obviously the aviars are useful and should be used (with caution)... and the lynch is as well. If Ghander doesn't vote that's fine, (more to analyse!) but I think a D1 lynch is typically a good thing.
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Hmm. Well, thanks for posting, cause I was writing a @Butt Ad Venture analysis post. I went through all of his this game and found three of note: The First: Page 3 of D1 It's that last line that caught my attention. It had already been clarified that Gears had done this as a villager multiple times, so the claim itself was largely NAI and shouldn't be the only reason for a vote. This line of reasoning- 'they claimed elim so let's kill them, obviously'- would be convenient for the elims to use early on (knowing that Gears is actually village) and get credit for not jumping on the 8 vote swing it became. I might be reaching with this assumption, but it's something I thought of. Also it might be noteworthy to remind people that Venture poked xino early on. Dunno what significance that has, though. The Second: Page 1 of D2, at 10:01 am I think someone else has said that the first sentence here could be filler to seem helpful. Then says he's suspicionless but votes Illwei anyway, and takes a firm standpoint in village!Lotus before backing it down, again. The Third: Page 1 of D2, 11:28 am The first paragraph is basically the same thing he already said. I have a decent alarm elim gut coming from there, like he needed another paragraph and just restated the filler things (Nooo Devotary, speculation that doesn't do much, by the way I don't have any suspicions even though I voted). And then he takes another standpoint at village Lotus. All in all I'd read Venture right now as Gut Elim but he hasn't done much of anything to support actual evidence for village!Venture or elim!Venture. His stance on Lotus is interesting. I won't be on a lot today, or tomorrow, so this will probably by my last big post of the cycle. I don't think I'll be on for rollover. So, Venture. *Reads over post again.* *Notices something* I'll return to that first post now... read this part again: Venture was the one to come up with the Iadon swap idea? If Venture and Lotus are indeed elims together, I don't think Venture would have said this at all. An elim adjudicator is very useful. So, either Venture is village, Lotus is elim, Venture saved the village from elim adjud Venture is elim, Lotus is village, swapped around a role (with a chance of giving it to a teammate) to gain village cred They both are village and it's just that They both are elim and Elk's contact is misinformed/lying/confused But that's a rabbit hole that I don't particularly want to dive down. But it makes me think that Lotus and Venture probably aren't teammates, but either could be elim. I personally think 2 is the most likely based on my gut reads, but depending on Elk's contact it could be 4.
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Two people that I'm suspicious of. Two people I think might be a team. And you don't even say anything about him? Really?
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As Gears just... eloquently... pointed out, the lynch is one of our main sources of information, and is the only one we can control. Analysis based of of noticing who voted who after an alignment flip is one of the best ways to catch elims.
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I agree. Shard of Reading, but I'll see what he says tomorrow.
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You aint seen nothing yet. Just wait till someone dies.
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First, this: You did say you missed my post, but this is kinda what I was saying (Which reassures me that I didn't think of something unplausible). We don't actually know anything. It clears no one, which is... unfortunate. I'm wondering how much you trust your contact though, read wise. Don't share that to the main thread, though. Second, reads, yay!: xinoehp512: Agree with Elk that it's good he's here, and agree with Ash that we shouldn't clear him for it. @xinoehp512, anything more to say here? Null... Mist: I don't remember exactly what they said, but I remember I thought it was thought out and seemed sincere. Slight village with a dash of please be a bit more active Ashbringer: To me, Ash is kinda the same as Mist, just more active. He has pointed out some things I think are kinda strange to point out, though. Null leaning slight village and maybe a slight 'will investigate later'. Matrim's Dice: A bit confused, but sincere. Solid Village Elkanah: Arguably the most helpful so far. Seems like his usual village game. Village Kings_way: A lot of people have pointed out the seemingly strange view of the monk, which is true. But also King is a new player. But also he's been pretty defensive and quiet lately, and there's only so far 'new player' can go as an excuse. Null leaning slight elim Lord_Silberfarben: A frustrating-I-think-mutually-shared-please-for-the-love-show-up-and-do-something-Null! @Lord_Silberfarben!! Vapor: Said they had a huge post that the Shard ate, I believe promised to get back to us... and then disappeared. @Vapor. Null leaning slight elim Ventyl: Now, while their vote and timing of said vote on Lotus was strange, Ventyl is strange himself. That's not super excusable, but seeing that I can see where he was coming from and considering that what I thought about Lotus actually isn't confirmed at all, I'd put Ventyl at a Slight village, but that could be subject to change depending on the arguments against him. I haven't read his post in a while. Lotus: At this point, with the adjud claim making me think Lotus was village, then realizing that this isn't as concrete as I thought, and rereading Illwei and TJ's points... I'm at a Null crossroads, though my gut tells me to investigate her more. @Lotus, what are your suspicions? Butt Ad Venture: I'm thinking I'd probably be fine with a Venture lynch, but I need to go reread his posts. To be determined. Looking back at that there's a frustrating amount of Null's, at least for my liking. If I had to make an elim team guess, I'd put Vapor, King, Lotus, and Venture in there. (Something else interesting I just thought of- the current distribution is probably 6/4/1, or maybe 7/3/1, so we might be seeing some free elim sacrifice deaths here soon if they continue to fail to find the Monk and if we continue to fail to find them ) TL;DR: Village: Myself, Elk Slight Village: Mist, Ash, Ventyl Slight Elim: King, Vapor Very Slight Elim/Investigate Later: Lotus, Venture Null: Everyone else (Plain Old Investigate Later: Xino, Ashbringer) @Butt Ad Venture analysis post to come. Probably tomorrow.
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Excellent, welcome back! CadCom Only players with a role that activates traps have an experience level, such as the spy and the healer. Other Aviar don't have the activate traps addition, so you don't have an experience level if you're one of those. (Or don't have a role) Hmmm. I don't know if I'm satisfied with this. First, never apologize for starting a discussion or sharing your thinking. That's a good thing! And we haven't figured anything out- just educated guesses based off past games. Which you have had less of, so that's easily excusable. Honestly, I can agree that overestimating is better than underestimating- but neither really matters, because when we hit that number we think the elims have, the game will either end, or it won't. That's just how that goes. The over/under debate isn't super useful. Second, maybe. Still I don't like the 'should not have done that'. It's fine. I'll hold off my vote on you, as a new and returning player should get cut some slack. We'll see how my thought process on you evolves, though.
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I agree with this read. That's what I thought as well. That being said, I have a bit of a bad gut read on Reading. Not entirely sure what from, though I think it spurred from Illwei's comment on page one.
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He was village in all of them, actually. But I doubt he'd stop the one round he is an elim...
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Gears has claimed elim for the past few games, so I wouldn't think much of it. It doesn't mean he's village, though- just NAI, or Non-Alignment Indicative. It doesn't prove anything about what he is, good or bad.
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Well, I'm back and I looked through TJ's posts. There were only three. The first doesn't help us. That was the one where he warned about an elim adjudicator, which I had forgotten he was the one to do that. The second is the most helpful, in my opinion. That was where he put out a reads list. (Still D1) Here are some interesting points I found from that post. Only interesting because he flipped Kingpin. Not sure what to take from this, though. Summary of his reads for that post: Here's his Lotus one: Which I had initially disagreed with upon thinking there was no way Lotus' teammates would let her claim... but maybe she did pitch it well, or didn't say anything. Illwei's flip has made me look at how I look at Lotus differently, and my village read on her isn't as strong anymore. More on that later, though. I'll do a read's list tonight, probably. His third and final post, found here, on D2, is also interesting because it includes an elim pool. I'd be willing to take another look at Venture. He's kinda been sliding under my radar this game. Not sure where the Mist vote comes from, tbh, though she's also kinda been slipping under my radar. I can see what he's saying on King, though that could just as easily be new player, and since that D1 post they've made considerably more sense. Lotus, I'll get back on, as I already said. But this one thing, which I reread after Illwei's flip, is partially why my mind is slowly changing about Lotus: ...Which is actually true. (Note: Elk's contact, though, disputes this slightly, but Iadon switching elim!Lotus adjudicator is just as likely as switching village!Lotus adjudicator. Or the contact may also be an elim) Elk, a time may come where you might need to share the contact with someone you trust to figure this out. If your contact is indeed an elim, there could be trouble. I don't know how you would, though, as I'm decently sure you would have used your allotted PM already. Also: @Lord_Silberfarben please exist. Your only post reads "sorry! i am here now!" so I'd like you to do something.
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Welcome! I happen to know how you found SE Any thoughts about what's been discussed?
