Experience

Okay. Well, the reason I was saying it's my fault is that I was the one who got the ball rolling on TJ. I was not aware he was the seeker but it now makes sense as to why he wanted to solve the distro and who smokers were because he wanted to be able to seek non smokers and have a better chance at getting a hit. 

I will say my only village tunnel currently is on doc so there's that ig. 

Welp, this is probably my fault, and now it's 50/50 whether elims soothed IHAT to protect them because they are elim or to make us think they are elim. Or ofc IHAT could be a soother or a villager trying to help with what they thought. Idk.

3 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Why would I vote when it's already tied up.

Nah you're good I sent that before the ties happened xD

Great. @Alvron are you planning on voting?

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Wallfacer said:

They could be afraid to all pile on you or someone else without good reason

But yes, it is a bad sign. I don't know who else it could be though.

Yeah but it'd be very easy to switch the vote because of how few votes are on IHAT currently.

35 minutes ago, Ookla The Story said:

How would you know if they were?

Because there would be players trying to vote for not IHAT because they don't want their teammate to die. 

I'm worried that there is apparently no worry from elims regarding where the votes are currently sitting.

VC rn:

Alvron (1): Broken

Exp/Counter (2): Stick, Story

IHAT (3): Wallfacer, Vessel, Wanderer

TJ (1): Exp/Counter

KaladinSHOS (1): TJ

So I feel like I have some overlaps here because of ooklas so idk if this is 100% correct. 

Based on some PMs TJ for now

11 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Yeah, the Coinshot is an example, but a good one because in such a case, there is certainty that they cannot Steal any more roles. 

I've just explained why it would not be possible for them to remove roles at all because of the exact 8 Smoker claims. We do not have missing roles. The only assumption here is we do not have an unclaimed Smoker, which is easy to confirm because there is no advantage for an unclaimed Smoker not to claim now. If they did not donate max Smokers, we should be seeing the presence of vanillas, which we haven't. So I disagree that the assumptions are baseless. I think assuming that we do not have a 9th Smoker and we do not have vanillas are actually quite reasonable assumptions. 

I'm not intending the 'if they stole x roles' analysis to be useful now. It will be a reference for the future to come back to, to see which case makes sense and then you can match what has happened to then see how many claims were truthful. 

Is it not a bad idea for the elims to have a clear path to knowing who the villagers are with power roles? Also if you had to vote somebody right now who would it be?

I personally think that discussing distro more is not very helpful at this point in time. It would be much more helpful for players to give reads they have on other players and then vote on those reads because that is information that we can actually use to solve the game. I fear that there are elims that are hiding behind the low activity wall and would be forced out if more people discussed their reads and thoughts other than how many smokers there may or may not be in the game. 

11 minutes ago, Ookla the Broken said:

He never said, “max smokers” but he pretty much did. He said that if 7 smokers were given after removals, and then says there must not have been any removals. 

I’m pointing out that the Elims may have removed roles, and only gifted 7 smokers, we don’t know if they gifted the maximum amount of smokers. He’s using the existence of 7 added smokers to mean we got gifted max Elims, with all nine power roles staying or being stolen. We have no way of knowing they all exist. This is based on the assumption that the max amount of smokers was gifted, which I’m calling him out on. I will say, this sounds like and Elim protecting and Elim. But I’d like to hear your response before making judgements

Edit:

My vote has been discussed, I think the consensus was that the Soother soothed me to prove that they were the soother. The conversation was in Night 1, if you want to check that out

Ah okay. I guess there is also a world where TUO or Alvron rioted your vote onto Araris though idk how likely that is. 

Okay I finallyyyy have some time for analysis lets start with juicy votes.

We ofc know that Fura, Redeemed(I didn't realize they were also slayer until like halfway through my analysis), and Araris are good.

Araris (5): Jo, TJ, Slayer, Stick
Stick (3): Araris, TUO, Alvron, Fura
Fura (1): Mippo
Mippo (1): Honor
IHAT (1): Doc
KSauce (0): IHAT
TJ (1): TwinStorm

I think it is very likely that at least one of the votes on Araris are elim, so lets look at them first.

Jo voted araris first page and well before any train ever existed. Next post has some distro thoughts and doesn't want those currently in the chopping block to die. This kinda doesn't make total sense as the votes at that time were:

TJ (3): IHAT/Broken, Vessel of Honor,  Storm

Stick (2): Araris, TUO

Fura (3): Hoid, Mippo/Story, KSauce

Araris (3): Jo, TJ, Fura

Seemed fine enough with everything to at least leave the vote where it was. His next post is responding to some people and mentions that a post by IHAT (Broken) gives elim vibes. Doesn't make any more posts d1 and then start of n1 gives a post analysis of IHAT and is now leaning village. d2 post saying they think smokers shouldn't. 

I haven't played with Jo for a couple years so idk it's hard cuz there's not a ton of stuff to analyze. For now I'm leaning neutral-.

Next up is TJ.

He's publickly confused about how distro works and thought that there could only be one of each role (as did I and some others I believe?). But TJ is smart enough to fake it so doesn't realy clear much. Also does some distro solving. Votes Araris when the votes are:

TJ (3): Exp/Ookla the Counter, Ookla Broken, Vessel of Honor

Stick (2): Mippo (Ookla the Story), Araris 

Fura(2): Ookla the Redeemed/Hoid, Fura

Hoid (the Redeemed) (1): IHAT/Ookla the Broken

Pooh Bear (1): Jo

Jo (1): Twin/Ookla the Wanderer

TOW (the Hoppy) (1): KSauce/Ookla the Wallfacer

Pros are this was also before an Araris train existed. There's a chance they were trying to move pressure off of stick (although TJ was the top train at this point and it's still pretty early on in the day anways so not too much weight here either way I don't think). And that was the last for d1. Nothing n1. d2 is doing more distro analysis because we finally have enough info to start getting some ideas of what it could be. Although I do not think that all smokers should claim. If all smokers are publickly known and elims gave every vanillager smoker, then they would be able to easily kill any villagers with roles that are more useful. I know a lot of people have claimed smokers, and I hope not all have and if so not all have been truthful. Anways, uhm. My Brain says neautral+ and my gut says something feels off so i'll go with neutral for now.

Next up is Stick. Pretty early on gives a village read for Redeemed. Village vibes from TUO. Also got slammed by the MRness of the game and voted in self pres on Araris at the end of d1. Huh. I'll note that prior to this post I was gut negative on stick and need to remember that for the future but honestly they haven't done anything that raises any red flags. neutral+ ig idk. Also the reason I posted regarding the tineye was because somebody in pms was talking about them so it was on my mind.

Hmm. Maybe there is a world where all three of them are village? I mean yes there is a chance that that is the case. Let me look at the vote manip next ig?

Araris (5): Jo, TJ, Slayer, Stick
Stick (3): Araris, TUO, Alvron, Fura
Fura (1): Mippo
Mippo (1): Honor
IHAT (1): Doc
KSauce (0): IHAT
TJ (1): TwinStorm

There has to ofc be a rioter involved because soother can't add to the number. So...oh wait KSauce has 0 why didn't I see that before? Has this been discussed yet? Doesn't that just mean that IHAT rioted one of [Araris, TUO, Alvron, Fura]'s votes onto Araris? It would mean that Slayer/Redeemed didn't use their riot or it was blocked by a smoker. The only way I see there being two riots is if Slayer used their riot in order to move someone's vote onto Araris (say from stick) which would keep Araris at 4 but knock Stick down to 3 and then IHAT rioted a non-voters vote to Araris as well. Ig that is a possibilitiy. Ohhhh, but ig it could just be that it's not IHAT and his vote was the one used which is why it's at zero. This is getting me nowhere except more confused as it looks like Slayer just didn't riot? Like why isn't it more likely that IHAT rioted and slayer didn't? If that's the case IHAT is almost certaintly the mistborn. Could be that they are elim though and so if IHAT flips e!mistborn I think that pairs IHAT and Stick as e/e canidates. If somebody could help me understand the possibilities or point me to a post that already explains it that'd be helpful.

I'm going to continue with analysis in a bit because I need a brain break, but for now Jo ig cuz we need people to start voting and talking more in thread. 

Current VC:

Alvron (1): Broken
Exp/Counter (1): Stick
IHAT (1): Wallfacer
Jo(1): Exp/Counter

Working on and off on analysis post, but did have the thought that tineye could be elim as well. In that scenario, it is very likely that at least one of the 4 names mentioned are elim and they included fura and redeemed because they knew either one or both were going to die anyways (and they know who are villagers). If it is an elim tineye we are dealing with, then it would make sense to include an elim in the list as the tineye seems 'credible' from the other village flips. 

And ofc if we're dealing with v!tineye then yeah they were right about fura and redeemed but it doesn't mean anything becuase they know as much as anyone who the actual elims are.

11 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

(pronounced Awseph)

i've been staring at this for like a minute straight and still cannot comprehend

Assuming I'm alive tomorrow I'll have a lot more time to deticate to analyzing things that have happened thus far. 

There's a part of me that thinks fura could be an elim something who claimed rioter in pms (and were planning on using the plethora of smokers as reasoning for why rioting never worked) and then when a v!rioter actually used their riot that claim fell through and now they say they are smoker so like theres a small part of me that thinks maybe fura is e!notrioterorsmoker but like it's all vibes rn.

I wish we could find out who rioted so that we could have a better chance of figuring out the motives and therefore how likely it was to save e!stick from the tie, but in the case of v!rioter, I feel that it's better to keep them alive and well as it seems that smokers are going sober. There's also no way that there is a e!rioter or e!soother right? As there are so many smokers? Unless elims super big brained and knew we wouldn't smoke at all and would think a game of smokers would mean e!vote manip is a bad idea so they take it but if that was the case I feel like somebody would be more willing to claim as vote manip but ig that will only happen when they are up for the chopping block.

Yeah idk my thoughts are all over the place it will be interesting to see what happens tonight and hopefully two village don't die.

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Broken said:

 

Okay, yeah, they’ve definitely flooded us with smokers. Let the seeker do their thing. And hope they’re village, which so far seems likely. 
edit: I forgot my reasoning: 6 smokers is way to many. If there’s five Elims, all of them claiming smoker this early is so suspicious and a really bad idea as if they get caught using any other ability ( thug or something) than they’re instantly outed 

A couple things, I think it's very unlikely that there are 5 elims with the control they have over distro, and 4 is a clean 25% which is usually the go to anyways. Also, I think it'd be pretty smart for some elims to claim smokers because it's hard to disprove someone's role unless they get killed and are thuged as they can claim they were smoked or whatever. I do think the elims having 2 smokers is a decent theory that I hadn't really thought of before though as they wouldn't even need to lie about being smokers.

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Broken said:

Okay, yeah, that’s fair. I’d still like to know how many people have claimed smoker. Ookla the wanderer did it publicly and Fura mentioned other in PMs. Idk if others have had it as well. Just the number, if you don’t want to tell me who that’s fine. I’d just like to make sure we have multiple smokers and it’s not just the Elims pretending 

I have been told in pms that there are at least 6 smokers, though I have only had 3 actually claim it.

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Broken said:

That’s risky, if we have an Elim seeker, then we’re letting them find out who has what, and depending on whether they left us a coinshot or lurcher or anything, then they could find that out and target them. It doesn’t look like that’s the case, but it’s there’s a world where the people claiming to be smokers are Elims trying to disguise that they have the seeker. I haven’t had a lot of people tell me their smokers, so idk how many have told all of you. That number would say something 

I think the chances of an elim seeker are slim, and also it's better to be able to have a seeker hard clear a villlage or find someone is elim and take the chance of an elim seeker finding a role, as although roles are important, finding alignments of elims is what wins the game.

Also I think it is better if all village smokers don't use their smoke on the off chance that there is a village seeker because we don't want that to get in the way. Unless I'm missing something, but I think it's not likely that elims have vote manip anyways so it should be safe to not smoke. 

Okay, well it appears that the elims have smoker bombed us, which is honestly really smart. Village smokers aren't that great compared to elim smokers as they can block seekers from either clearing or outing players. I believe that some elims will also use the large amount of smokers to try to blend in and will also claim smoker.

One good thing that we can take from this (assuming we are flooding with smokers) is that it is less likely that the elims took any vote manipulation so we should probably keep that in mind.

Oh also TJ

Not that I necessarily want fura to die but i dont really have anything against tj either at this point so...

Okay finally back home for the day and I have time to engage and read through the thread, but one thing that is confusing me while skimming, can there be multiple of the same role? I've seen conflicting answers but the rules state that "By default, all allomantic abilities appear exactly once in the game and will be given to villagers. The Spiked get to make changes to that state of affairs in targeted ways during Night 0, creating the distro that the game will actually use." I could see this meaning either:

a) there is one of each role and the only way that elims can change the distro is by using points to steal/kill abilities or

b) they can use their points to meddle, but there are also other ways they can affect the distro on n0 that is not defined in the public rules, which would allow multiple of roles.

@DrakeMarshall are you able to confirm which of these it is?

Sheesh I can't believe nobody has made PMs with me yet smh.

Pretty busy rn but luckily it's d1 so not many reads can be made yet anyways.

Trying to figure out what Kas would do here...

Oh right...

TJ

You turned them into s

Wow so many players

I'll play as Kas