CadCom
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Lumgol sent me a pm just trying to set up a communication so that we could work together to "catch eliminators" I didn't see the message until he was also dead. Unfortunately, he didn't suggest anyone in particular for me to look into, so I don't have any suggestions of people to look into who are associated with him. My best guess is just that they wanted to be able to have exclusive access to the results of my scan, as well as advanced knowledge of who I was going to scan, but my plan all along was to share whatever I needed to share with the thread. Just so everyone knows, I'm going to try again to go for one of the crabs, but I'll Actually submit the action this time.
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I'm sorry, I did not try to grab the crab. I went inactive over the weekend(general conference. I will try to catch up some time today, but with my new position at work, it may be a while.
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hey all, I've been offered a new position at my work, and for the next couple weeks, I will be adjusting to the new schedule under different management, so my posting may become a bit sporadic. I'll still do what I can, and I'll let you know when I've figured out more. Anyway, I'll try tagging @Snipexe and placing a poke vote on him as well Snipexe. How are you doing? Edit: I'm thinking of trying to grab the crab tonight. I'm not 100% sure, what are all of your thoughts?
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Just use your phone and play during general conference. If I see a face light up from the choir section, I'll know it's you.Also what session will you be singing at?
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The term babaji is used once in the day cycle, I guess we have to assume that either babaji action would take place at that point. Love or hate.
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I've made it! Wow, being gone for a couple of days, and coming back to this game, and missing a couple of ends of turns in the other game leaves me very lost and confused. I've spent a few minutes on doing a quick analysis. ITEMS TL:dr? Basically, I think that Chalk seems like a tool useful to anyone Acid seems like a tool that is more useful to elims, but still of some use to village Bribe is also a tool that would be more useful to elims, but still of some use to village Spring powered crab would be more useful to villagers. This is opposite what Steel suggested, so I'll have to review the last game to see if I end up changing my opinion about the crab. Lantern would be more useful to villagers. Gun is IKYK because it is equally useful and dangerous to both village and elims. ----- I would expect 3 eliminators in this game, plus the thief. If it were just eliminators and villagers, I would be all for claiming the items we go for all the time, as that would allow us to be able to better keep track of where everything is, but since we have a thief, it would also allow the thief to know where everything is, which makes it more likely that they will be able to more easily get to their 4 unique items. Though with only 6 items, It may be more difficult, since only one person will have an option for a gun and a crab for the time being. Which means they might just try for the other 4. I'm just walking through all the ikyks in my head, so I'm going to step away from this for a minute and hopefully come back later. --- Players who haven't posted so far: @xinoehp512 and @Snipexe (for some reason my tag function stopped working)
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Hey all, Sorry, I was inactive for acouple of days. Let me get back in the hang of things, and I'll try providing analysis.
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mafia championship A Knock from Outside the Cosmere
CadCom replied to Metacognition's topic in Sanderson Elimination
There is nothing I would love more than to play, but If this starts at the end of April or beginning of May, I would have finals at or near the same time, so I don't think I would be able to dedicate myself enough to be able to play effectively, so I am going to have to pass on my nomination. -
I tried to dedicate time to this yesterday, but I only got half of one player analysis done. Looking back at the case against Snip, I have to agree with it. He was one of the few who left his vote on me. I was the one who redirected Snip that next night, and I redirected it to xino. Since nothing bad happened to xino, I just assumed that he must have been honest, and completely forgot about the fact that I had suspected them in the first place. But now that others have mentioned it, it doesn't make sense that he would protect me right after voting for me. (if he actually did do it, that's the only thing that I really am putting as really in his favor. Because he was voting on me so I could win, I just don't know why he would put so much on the line for me.) With that note, Araris, Snipexe I understand Bard's reasoning for staying where he is, and with enough support, I might switch back, but I'm honestly not quite as sure what to do this cycle as I have been in previous cycles. Araris (2): Elandera, Bard,Snipexe (4): Araris, Aman, Rand, CadComRand (1): Fura Itiah (1): Fifth Also, it appears that someone attempted to redirect my convert action last night. I do not know whether the redirect worked or not, all I know is that someone attempted to do it. So did anyone get converted who wasn't expecting to be converted last night? I will reveal who I attempted to convert to JOE later. On a completely unrelated note, Would anyone like a potato? You can order it raw, baked or smashed, but my chef really does what he wants, so you could potentially receive any of the three.
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...So you can only die from an elim kill? Has anyone attempted to kill Araris to verify this? Because this just wreaks of ikyk to me. If he was beirst, then this would be a perfect way to push the lynch away from him. Whether or not the claim is true, I don't like it, so Araris This may change as the day goes on, but I think it is a very good way to start discussion, and I can't guarantee that it will change.
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I just want to remind everyone that just because someone has become converted to the JOE faction, this does not change their original wincon. Lum, me, Elan and Fura should not be any more or less cleared of being a spammer due to us being in the JOE disease. I also believe that tomorrow I will have the combination of motivation and time necessary to put forth some sort of basic analysis, and hopefully continue contribute more once again.
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Thanks, I will plan on converting someone not on this list tonight. I also apologize for my inactivity. I have a theory that due to the weekend, as well as the fact that we don't have any very solid suspicions, that discussion has slowed down drastically. Hopefully there will be a fair amount of beneficial scan actions or other sorts of actions tonight that will give us some insight going forward.
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Since we're back to the weekend, I suppose it's time for the Joe disease to spread, and there is a possibility that I won't my use other role until the next turn, therefore giving me an opportunity to spread the Joe Disease. And so, I'd like to ask everyone real quick(Or at least Lumgol) Who all has been converted so far. That has got to be a part of the team of Joes. We must know who has and hasn't been converted, so we don't all throw our eggs in one basket and convert the same person at the same time.
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Hey guys. Weekends(IRL) always slow my activity greatly. I'll try to get some analysis in, but I've barely had time to even skim the thread. I should be back up tomorrow though. Unfortunately at the moment I dont have any very great suspicions. So if I dont have time to do a more in depth analysis, I may end up voting on someone who will simply give us more information.
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Aaaahhh you targeted me? I take the fact that xino is still alive as indication that your action against me must have been a positive action? ------- Anyway, I've come to the conclusion. That Joe is a disease. But an inevitable disease The Joe faction basically has the goal to have everyone join that additional secondary wincon prior to the eliminators winning. There are some, like fura who are simply going to ignore the secondary wincon of the Joe faction. But I think that, even though I despise the mechanic, after having also been converted, it takes away from the intended playout that the GM had originally imagined. Therefore I will, unlike some others, continue to play with the additional role I have. But if i believe an action available to me is more important at the time, then I will do that action. Anyway, I'm going to try my best to cooperate with all. Except you spammers. I don't want to cooperate with you. You are evil.
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It seems to me that the main thing it does is offer a counter balance to the village. I recall quite a few people stating that they thought the village might be overpoweres, but by adding this additional faction in, it makes it so that the the elim team focuses at least temporarily on converting other eliminators. At this point I think it would be too difficult and therefore not worth it to stop because each time that we kill one, they can convert at least two more, and that number will slowly grow. It might just be best to let them run its course.
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I think this begs the question. Are the eliminators breaking joes meta game? Is that why he went AWOL?
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As has been discussed, I had nothing to do with this. This morning when I got to my computer the first thing I saw was my new role information, which made me only slightly disappointed. Then I went back and caught up on last night before I looked at this morning's posts. When I saw that Alv had stated that he would sway the vote to me, I was a bit astounded that I was still alive, Then I moved over to today's thread, and I see that I am still alive because Alv was indeed a spammer. With Alv knowing I had the ability to kill someone if the lynch had gone to me, he could have easily swayed it last minute, But instead he went for the gambit. Perhaps that was because he might have known that if he had swayed it, he would have been my kill, or perhaps he was protecting one of the other two who voted on me. Or perhaps it was a combination of the two. Maybe he knew that if he had redirected towards me, then by sheer chance alone, it would have been at least 33% maybe even 66%(or even 100%) chance that an eliminator was killed, which would not have been productive. On the contrary, he had only a 25% chance of being killed this way, and if he wasn't killed, then his guess at me would have been a 1/3 shot of being correct. Then if one of the two others that voted on me was an elim, then I would have had a 1/2 chance of hitting an elim. 1/3*1/2=1/6 so 25% plus about 17% comes out to 42% (I've taken stats, and I realize all the steps that I may have skipped in order to find out if that number would be correct if it's all by chance. But it's been long enough since I took stats, that I don't remember what steps those are.) I'm certain that there's some other factor that's in there that would reduce it to a lower chance somewhere, but I do not know where. I think I'm just rambling now, as I don't know where I wanted to go with these numbers any more, so let's try a different route. -Xino - redirected lum to rath? Is there a confirmation of this, or a claim of this, because I don't remember it at all.
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Popping in one more time before I go to bed. There is a very real possibility that when I wake up, I may be lynched. In that case, I will get the opportunity to kill one of the players who voted on me. As a possibly dying man's request, I ask that the person I kill be one of the points of discussion, and I will place a kill on the person the thread chooses. If you like, you can even set up some sort of alternate vote system to vote on that person. (Like purple instead of red) If most people dont want anyone of my voters killed. I will see if it's possible to choose not to kill anyone. Though I will not pursue that route until I see significant or visible public ninterest in that route. (I'm still not 100% sure If I would be allowed to just avoid the kill, though I dont see why not.)
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I just want to put quick thoughts on a few players and other things. First, fura, I believe I cryptically claimed to you in the thread before fifth claimed the same role as me. I didnt tell anyone else of the role, so that makes me inclined to lean eliminator(at least at the beginning of the game) on fifth. (Nothing has really happened that would make me lean past neutral towards spammer either) Second, Lum and I did have a PM during the first cycle where he informed me of some of the mechanics of his role, he was trying to convert since then, and I believe that he still has a village aligned wincon, but he must complete his additional wincon in order to also win. Third, regarding my role, as roleplayer, each weekend I pick up a previous role from a previous game. This weekend I got angry gang member from MR 12. If I'm lynched, I win immediately but the game continues, and I get to choose a player that voted on me to kill the next turn as well. I think that I would have had a higher chance of killing a spammer over a normal villager but now that I've revealed that mechanic of my role, i believe that any remaining eliminator will likely try to leave my lynch. Of course it's all ikyk at this point too. Anyway, I havent seen a vote count recently, and I dont have time to tally one up. Anyone up to the task? Edit: I actually did a quick skim since the last vote count, and have a rough vote count Rathmaskal (2) Alvron (1)Kidpen (1) Walin (1) CadCom (3) snipexe (1) Itiah (1) sorry for no names, I'm on mobile and in a hurry.
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Huh, so you need me too much but you havent even converted me yet? Weird.
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I will reveal that in a little bit as there are mechanics of the role I don't want the knowledge of put into the wrong hands until it's close to too late to use it, but you are making the correct assumption that I am a roleplayer, who received a previous role. Part of my plan was to bring up exactly what you brought up nearer the end of the cycle as well, that there is a higher likelihood of people looking for an easy lynch in the group of people who at some point vote for me, so to be most wary of them.
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I found out about this at the beginning of the weekend cycle. I am still a villager, and that's part of why I didnt try to "slip" and make you all think I was an eliminator. I will most likely only have this goal until the end of this week turn. So if I survive, I would return to a standard villager role. By doing this, I'm taking the easy way out, instead of continuing to try to work as a team until the eliminator win, as I will be removed from the game if I'm lynched. That is why I dont want you to vote on me if you think that you have a better vote option with someone else. Actually, please dont vote on me if you think you have a better vote.
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I'm a bit at loss for what to do personally. I havent been analyzing much this cycle, because I've been trying to figure out a good plan to go through with, and I've decided honesty for the remainder of this week might be best. I currently have a goal to be lynched. But the lynch has to be this cycle. If I complete that goal, then I win, but the game doesnt end so everyone else can also still have a chance of winning Unfortunately for me, I did a fairly good job of clearing myself by being one of the leaders of the lynch on devotary, and I havent been able to find a way to " 'accidentally'reveal that I've somehow become converted to the spammers." With that, I will be placing a vote on Cadmium Compounder and I'll invite the rest of you to also participate. I completely understand if you choose not to though, as after all, voting on me would kill one of the people that is most likely an eliminator.(village). And that would only hurt the village in the long run.
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Yep, that is exactly what i did. Still wasn't easy, but doable.
