Taupe Gecko

...You do realize that, before your vote, Weasel had the most votes, right? So the Weasel lynch was going somewhere... until you stopped it.

Oh that's an interesting combo. No matter who dies this cycle, I'm sorry that it has to be this way. It really does suck to get killed this early in this kind of game. But, on some level, someone does have to die. Probably the same reason I did. And Falcon did. It's literally just because you're not in one of the two factions that have lost players this round. edit: Oh, woah. I totally missed that there was a whole other page. Well, I guess he had different reasons lol. I don't think we should kill Octopus. I don't think it would give us anything. I'm going to take my vote off of Swan and put it on Weasel.

...where's my shrug emoji. -sigh- Frankly, I'm not surprised Autonomy died. If Odium really did know that Vulture was Autonomy, then it's fairly reasonable to kill them; they kinda stole the last game they were in. Additionally, just judging from my faction and what I've heard/guessed about other factions, I doubt that the faction with Odium necessarily has win-cons based on just one shard. It's also possible that Odium killed Autonomy for reasons other than just "to shatter a shard." Killing other factions most powerful tools seems like a good idea for most factions. Finally, it still could have just been a random shot in the dark. Still, I'm not saying you're wrong. I just don't think we should be doing things solely based on "What Odium might do with this information." especially at this point.

I'd like to point out that Odium might not necessarily have a shattering related win-con. I mean, it's possible - maybe even probable - but it's not necessarily 100% certain. On the other hand, however, revealing a shard from another faction will help everyone who wants to get their hand on a shard. It's still pretty likely that the person would die. So... it depends on who Indigo reveals to, I guess. Some people might remove votes for that kind of info. Seems like Indigo might be in a tough spot now, though. People might have moved their votes if you'd stayed quiet, but honestly now that you're worried most people will probably feel confident enough that you're going to die to keep their votes on you. edit: I will note, however: could be an IKYK. -sigh-

-sigh- This interaction is making me think that Weasel might die after all. Maybe we should just tie it and let the Gods of Luck and Chance decide.

The landscape sped past, and mist swirled around Gilgamesh as he raced across the barren, rocky terrain towards the place where he'd sensed people moving about. He liked this place. He could feel the power moving through the air around him, and in the distance he was sure he could feel larger deposits of power. Gilgamesh did hope that they had food wherever he was going, though. The stuff on Silverlight had been rather insubstantial, all things considered. Perhaps on this world they'd have better things to eat. Soon enough, Gilgamesh noticed the rock and sand fading to grass and plains, and in the distance, beyond a range of hills and bluffs, rose buildings as tall as any had been on Silverlight. Metal scraped the sky, and Gilgamesh could feel hundreds of presences within the city. The air even smelled of people, of industry, and soon Gilgamesh found himself wandering the paved roads of an enormous city. People were everywhere, the streets even more crowded than those on Silverlight, and the noise and bustle of a big city surrounded him. Gilgamesh sighed in relief. He'd always loved the outdoors, and frankly there were few things that suited him as well as running through open spaces, summiting the tallest mountains, or exploring the deepest caves. Yet there was something comforting about the buzz and hum of hundreds of people just... living. "Metalminds for sale! Metalminds for sale!" Gilgamesh heard a voice calling from the crowded streets. He turned, seeing a thin man in glasses standing next to a cart piled high with metal bands, trinkets, and baubles. The man was of average height, and was wearing a pinstriped burgundy suit. "Unkeyed Metalminds! User Friendly and fashionable metalminds!" Gilgamesh walked up to the cart, peering interestedly at the many metal objects. Each one exuded a faint aura, and although Gilgamesh couldn't say for sure what each of them did, he was certain that there was some sort of power stored with in them. Gilgamesh picked up a dull grey arm-band with an intricate design, hoping to get a better idea of what it's purpose was. "Ah, you've got good taste!" the man next to the cart exclaimed, quickly stepping up next to Gilgamesh. The man looked slightly nervous; Gilgamesh dwarfed the man in size, standing a good couple heads above him. But the man's nature as a salesman seemed to be compelling him to sell the item, despite his nervousness. "That right there is a pewter metalmind! It stores strength, so you can impress the ladies with your muscles when you need'em, but keep'em small when you don't!" The thin man struck a comical pose, pretending to flex the practically nonexistent muscles on his arms. Gilgamesh laughed at the show, and the man's nervousness quickly disappeared. "That's right!" he said, laughing along with Gilgamesh, "All you need is to be a Pewter Feruchemist! Allomancers get the worse end of it; their pewter only gives them strength, not muscle." Gilgamesh frowned. He didn't know any of these words; a problem he kept running into, ever since he found his way to Silverlight. "I'm afraid I'm not from around here." Gilgamesh said slowly, "I confess you lost me at 'Feruchemist.'" The man's smile faded, and he blinked a couple times. "But how could you not know what a Feruchemist is?" the man said. Then his eyes widened, before narrowing conspiratorially, "Oh. You're one of those. A colleague of mine was talking about you guys, but I thought he was off his head!" Gilgamesh just stood there, trying to seem like he understood. He really had no idea what was going on, but he would like to figure out what this man was talking about. And these metal minds interested him. "You're a worldhopper." the man said, grinning. "Well, there's a chance these might work for you anyway, if what my colleague said is true. Try to draw the power out of it." Gilgamesh was uncertain about the whole affair, but he did think he might be able to take the energy from this object. As soon as he'd touched it he'd felt the same energy he'd seen on it earlier, now in the back of his mind, waiting to be drawn upon. Gilgamesh breathed deeply, and focused his will. The energy flowed out of the metal mind, and Gilgamesh's eyes widened as he felt his muscles bulge suddenly. The man clapped his hands and jumped up and down. "You can use it!" he said excitedly. The man seemed to realize how silly he must look, and quickly regained his composure. "Eh-hem." the man said, adjusting his glasses. "That'll be 300 boxings." Gilgamesh grinned at the man, before reaching into the sack on his back. He pulled out a huge bag of coins, and the man's eyes bulged. Gilgamesh chuckled. A group of men had been foolish enough to attempt to rob Gilgamesh while he was running towards the city; in exchange, Gilgamesh had kindly relieved them of all the coinage he could find. He'd figured it would come in handy. "I'll take them all." I guess it's a bit late in the cycle to stop the Weasel lynch, especially since most of you seem pretty adamant about it. I'm not sure that they're going to die, but I suppose it doesn't really matter in the long run. I'll note that even if Devotion didn't protect them, they've been on Scadrial since last cycle, so it's entirely possible they're using a Feruchemist charge this cycle. I can confirm that other factions had similar options; my faction did as well, although we ended up going with another win-con since the killing oriented one was rather difficult and a bit boring. Frankly, though, I wouldn't be surprised if the factions with real kill roles picked something like that, and to be fair, both of the universal win-cons are heavily kill oriented as well. The real problem is that we don't really have as clear a way of discovering a faction like that in this game. At any rate, I do agree with Falcon's assessment of lynch options, although I would probably have avoided lynching Weasel again. Magenta basically just covered what I was going to say. This is what I get for being a slow typer. On that note, Coral Swan. Like I said earlier, it might be a bit late to stop the Indigo lynch, but I figure I might as well offer an alternative. If this one doesn't take off, though, I'd pretty happily join another train.

I'd guess that Swan is also one of the people who Falcon views as being in neither of the factions which have lost players thus far. So, basically the same reason that they would lynch Indigo. If you read their post, that's the reason they gave. edit: Lol ninja'd

Alright. The way you phrased it honestly came off as "This wasn't the plan; we didn't mean to get get one of these two people killed." or something in that vein. Sorry for attacking you a bit. Still, now that you've clarified your meaning, it does raise an interesting discussion point. Why didn't you want these two to die? (For the record, I don't think there's anything necessarily lynch-worthy about wanting people to survive, I'm just curious.) Honestly, I'm not entirely surprised someone went after Autonomy, considering how easily they won the last game.

...Why. This is one of the things that annoys me most. If you've got something to say, just say it. Don't try to be all mysterious and then wait for someone to be like "Oh, I wonder what you could mean by this," or someone to ask you to explain yourself. If you don't have anything to say, then don't randomly hint. It's a nuisance, frankly, it doesn't add anything to the conversation, and it's just a rather silly attempt to make it seem like you're holding some cards we want to see. Well I don't want to see them, thank you very much. Oh, so you don't have anything to say. Grrrrrrr. edit: Ok perhaps this was a bit harsh. But please, if you want to share something, perhaps a better way of doing it might be just straight up explaining yourself rather than baiting everyone.

I'd be wary that Indigo might be in the same situation they were in last lynch. It might be unlikely, as it's possible that Devotion would have been too worried about Indigo getting targeted with kill actions last night to use their redirect on them again. I'm not sure though. Honestly either way though, I don't really see a reason to try and kill Indigo again. It seems like there's probably a better use of the lynch, all things considered. Erm. Which one of these is accurate? I'd assume it's Autonomy, but I'd just like to double check. Might RP later.

Ah, I see. I misunderstood what you were saying anyway; I wasn't thinking about Devotion's ability as working that way. Could prove dangerous to Devotion. This whole situation actually makes me wonder if Weasel was just trolling to draw attention. Might not have had anything to do with any win-cons after all.

Swirling silvery light surrounded Gilgamesh. He couldn't breath, but just felt pulled, down and around, spinning endlessly. It was a bizarre feeling, yet oddly not terribly uncomfortable. Gilgamesh was wondering how long this would go on when the feeling ended abruptly, and with nothing further Gilgamesh found himself standing on a rocky plain, outside the entrance to a cave. Silvery mist swirled through the air, growing denser near the cave, and Gilgamesh could practically feel the power in the air. Breathing deeply of the silvery air, Gilgamesh felt the mist enter his lungs, and it swirled oddly around him, much like the water in the pool had stirred in that odd spherical room; both moved without wind or movement, seemingly of their own accord. Gilgamesh couldn't help but feel excited. If any place could breed strong opponents, it was this place. Gilgamesh grinned. He liked it here. Gilgamesh swung around, breathing deeply, letting his tongue taste the air. He could feel people off in the distance, mere presences at this distance, but definitely there. If there were people, then there would be interesting things happening. And maybe, just maybe, he'd finally get to fight. Finally, he could fight. Gilgamesh is a weird guy with weird skills. He can definitely feel you in the distance. *tries to upvote* Anonymous Account: "No." *cries* Lol I'll be sure to upvote all the writeups after the game ends. Maybe I'm just dense, but how would Odium know who Devotion is at this point? Am I missing something? Also, I'm now on Scadrial. So... yeah. I've got no really useful information or analysis at this point, so I figure I might as well share my location. I'm sure most of you know at this point anyway, since I'd imagine that everyone on Scadrial has probably already shared the player list with their faction. Shame on you guys.

Gilgamesh was more than a little bored. He'd abandoned his perch high above the rest of Silverlight, turning rather to walking the streets. Now he was sitting in an alleyway, still listening. But he was getting bored. Very little of interest was happening here on Silverlight. While he'd hoped that the turmoil and fear would drive away the weak, and leave only the strong as companions, the people left on Silverlight seemed to prefer skulking around making plans rather than fighting. No one was dying, no one was fighting, and he had heard nothing of interest about what was going on in the world. Despite all the hype, this "war of the shards" was turning out to be much less exciting than he had hoped. He sighed, rubbing his left shoulder, which had been bothering him lately. Old wounds... Gilgamesh stood, grunting. Well, if there were no interesting people here, he'd have to go somewhere else. He'd heard that the natives of Scadrial were particularly strong... Perhaps he should go there. He grinned. Maybe he'd find someone to fight. ~~~ Gilgamesh walked slowly down the long, narrow, dimly lit passageway. It was simple, and unadorned; the only light came from small, unobtrusive globes hung near the top of either side of the passage. Supposedly, this passage lead to a door between realms, through which he could easily travel to Scadrial. But it had gone on for ages now, and Gilgamesh still couldn't see the end. How long was this going to take? Soon, however, a bright light appeared at the end of the hallway. Gilgamesh walked slowed, noticing that the passageway was slowly widening, the ceiling rising, and that at the end it curved to form a spherical room with a pool sunk into the floor at the bottom. The pool glowed. It was filled with a thick, opaque liquid, which shifted oddly in the otherwise still room. It was silvery, with lines of brighter and darker colors constantly swirling. Looking into the pool, Gilgamesh could see his face reflected clearly through the swirling silvers and greys, but nothing else in the room. reflected. Odd. He looked closer, seeing the familiar hard lines and scars of his face - the face of a warrior. It was a good face. He grinned, looking at himself, and saw his face soften. Gilgamesh was glad. He could still pull of a good mischievous look, despite everything. The room was empty, other than the pool, without even the lanterns of the hallway to provide light. The room was instead lit by the pool, which shone even brighter than the lanterns had in the hallway. It felt strange, though - even without his powers, Gilgamesh could feel an odd resonance coming from it. Still, this was the way to Scadrial, and he did want to get there. It was odd, this feeling that he felt inside him. It was like anticipation, or excitement, mixed with a wariness of sorts; Gilgamesh didn't know where this pool would bring him, nor what the cost might be of getting there. It had taken him long enough just to travel to this pool, which was far enough away from Silverlight to have been an inconvenience to normal people. But now... was this nervousness? Gilgamesh grinned, shaking his head. It had been ages since he was nervous about anything. But these were interesting times... Gilgamesh took a deep breath, and jumped into the pool. Wherever it took him, he was ready. He had more than enough strength to face whatever may come. Strength. I took some creative liberties describing whatever the Shardpool at Silverlight might look like. Gilgamesh doesn't have a whole lot of terminology knowledge as far as the Cosmere goes, so he also describes things a little oddly compared to your average worldhopper. Also, the 'powers' or 'magic' that Gilgamesh keeps referring to are abilities that Gilgamesh lost or sacrificed in order to get to Silverlight. He's had a bit of a rough time of it. Also, Gilgamesh is heading to Scadrial, and might get there before I do - although I do intend to get there sooner or later. What Gilgamesh is doing and where he is doing things, while related to what I'm doing, probably won't happen in the same sort of time frame due to cycle timing. I'm not entirely sure what's going on with Indigo Weasel. Honestly, they seem to be doing things pretty stereotypical of someone who wants to draw attention to themselves and/or get themselves killed. So I'd personally rather not do that. All things considered I'm not sure what to make of Axolotl's claim of having some sort of hidden information. I don't think that it's impossible, but it seems a little odd to me the sort of things they claim. I sort of doubt the amount of information they actually have, and they're certainly trying to seem mysterious, but I don't necessarily think that the things that they're claiming are impossible to have found out through normal means, although it's a little odd that they didn't really share them. Finally I'd like to comment on the voting pattern that seems to be appearing; Most of the votes I've seen, excluding poke votes on inactive, have been cast at, A: people who voted on someone else, for the reason that they appear to be trying to get people killed, B: people who the voter believes might be related to Odium, who might have a win-con related to killing people, and C: at people the voter thinks are acting weird/suspicious. I'd like to point out that, because this is a faction game, everyone has pretty equal reason to try to lynch people from other factions. Unless a faction's win-con involves keeping people alive somehow, I believe it's probably in most factions interest to get rid of other players. I'd imagine that most win-cons are more feasible with less people around, so this pretense of trying to start lynches on people who "might be dangerous" seems a little off to me. That being said, I'd also imagine that it's in most factions interests to survive with as many people as possible, so I'd caution against acting odd or trying to drum up votes against a certain person. This is part of why Indigo's actions seem so odd to me. They neither appear to be trying to get other people killed, nor are they really avoiding attention; I don't know quite what their goal is, but I think we should pay attention to them. I don't, however, think lynching them would be the best idea. They might be trying to draw our attention away from someone/something else, although it seems it would be almost impossible to tell what at this stage. I don't think this makes any sense. We don't have any proof that Toucan was lying, and frankly it seems more likely that they weren't at this point - although I'll withhold judgement on that front - and I don't see why defending Toucan, even if they were lying, seems like a good reason to lynch someone. I'll note that I'm not against a lynch, despite my slight disapproval of the reasoning for most of the votes, and I'll probably vote a little later in the cycle. It's probably a good idea to have a lynch just to get things rolling, and Gilgamesh would be happier if people started dying.

Oh there're plenty of ways to have fun with weird win-cons. And I can think of a number of ways to win that doesn't change how the individual factions win. It just depends on the difficulty or the flavor of the win-con whether or not it's fun or exciting. Win-Cons like the Ghostblood Win-Con from LG26 or Autonomy's Win-Con from a previous shard-game, which was mentioned earlier, don't have to be implemented as game-ending win-cons, and neither of those really effected other players, IIRC. Survival's win-con from past shard games has been just to survive, and people have had plenty of fun with that. "Tag" win-cons, where a person has to perform some sort of action to a number of players or places, don't need to be game ending. "Collecting" or "Creating" certain items could be similar. I'm sure there are more that I'm just not thinking of at the moment. Besides, even if it does change how other individuals win, it still might not be detrimental to the overall play of the majority. I'm sure that many of the factions have win-cons that are detrimental to the other factions; just look at the two base win-cons from the sign-ups. Besides, apparently any faction completing a win-con apparently ends the game. Killing Toucan for claiming to have a neutral win-con doesn't make any more sense than killing someone from another faction; probably less, actually. But that's just my opinion. I'm not so sure that cooperation between factions is an impossibility. From one of Seonid's Clarifications: So it would seem to me that some factions are capable of working together. I'm sure that the more devious or scheme-ey players will end up working behind the scenes on this sort of thing, but that's never really been my style. Like I said earlier, I'm probably going to be following around Gilgamesh for the most part. I'm just gonna try to enjoy this final Shard game.

The Cosmere was stirring. Gilgamesh sat lazily, resting atop one of the highest points in Silverlight, watching as thousands of people scrambled about, listening as people rushed about. Gilgamesh could practically feel the turmoil as news spread. He listened, humming softly to himself. Murmurs and whispers, voices from the crowds floated up to his vantage point. Some people were worrying, as was only natural; a war between great powers was about to begin... "The Shards..." "Warring again? Impossible. They've been...." "...in a State of Emergency. We must leave while we can..." "We're no longer safe..." But some people were not worrying. These people viewed the matter much differently. It all depended on perspective... "...moment has come. We should take the chance..." "Unrivaled power could be ours..." "One final blaze of light..." Gilgamesh couldn't help himself. He grinned. These were the moments he lived for. Moments of turmoil, when anything, everything could happen. The Shards were warring; did this mean disaster? No. It meant opportunity. Silverlight was no longer safe? Then only the strong would stay. Now he could see who was really the strongest. He stood up, wind whipping his cloak back. He chuckled. Gilgamesh had been waiting for this for a long time. The prophecy, which had spoken of this time, this oncoming storm, had inspired him to journey to this realm. And now, with no more magic left to his name, here he was. The journey had stripped him of his powers; it had taken all he had just to get here. Gilgamesh's smile hardened as he gritted his teeth. Now all he had was his strength. He clenched his fists. Strength. 'Sup everyone. I'm mostly gonna be following Gilgamesh around for this one. Like some others have said, there's not a whole lot to say about the state of the game right now anyway, so I'll check back in later.

Alright, Tuatara was innocent. Not really surprised but I am glad for it to be confirmed. I think we need to consider two possibilities. 1. We have an abnormally small elim team. It is balanced out with some good powers (worst-case scenario a dustbringer), and depending on if Orlok uses dice or not, possibly a collection of skilled players. 2. The eliminators have been able to control the lynch without too much effort. Either because all of the current suspicions were off the mark, or because they are playing on the offensive, and multiple team members are playing an active role in shaping the lynch. And, I suppose, a "third" option is that both of these two things are true. I don't really know where I'm going with this, but I guess my point is that we should be wary. Especially wary when everything seems a little too easy. And personally I thought the Tuatara lynch did seem a little too easy, though I understand why people wanted to go through with it. Personally, I kind of think Beagle's surprise about Tuatara's alignment feels like it's being played up, but that might just be me. I will want to read more, but I still think Flamingo is the most promising lynch (sorry Flamingo). Part of that is gut, part of that is the reasons I gave before. And finally... Both Beagle and Flamingo had a lot of votes removed from them if I am counting correctly. To me, that says two things. One, that we have a lot of soothers. This is a major feature in whatever unusual role distribution Orlok put together. Which is kind of surprising, because the Bondsmiths are supposed to be an order with only three members. And two... From the sheer volume of vote manipulators, I conclude that some of them are probably elims (and by the way, a vote manipulator might make sense on a smaller than average team). Whether they were protecting a team member or just framing someone is totally IKYK, but we can at least know that they probably have manip powers. Alternately, another possible explanation for all the vote manipulations is that a plethora of worldhoppers all rolled vote cancellation powers on the same cycle. Anyhow, all of those who have actions they can take tonight, please make good use of them. I think that's about it.

Well, I've skimmed through the two pages that happened since I last posted. I am pleased with the fact that this lynch had lots of discussion. I am doubly pleased that there have been several legitimate lynch candidates, and a lot of voter participation. I'm pretty sure at least one of the current candidates is an elim (statistically quite likely unless the eliminator team is abnormally small). It will be interesting to see who was trying to save who in all of this. Seeing as the cycle's almost up, I'll leave my thoughts at that. Looks like Tuatara is being lynched, and while I believe they are village, I'd rather wait a few minutes and confirm that before I continue my analysis (which would be based on that assumption).

Alright! Took a while, but I trust you can understand that, yes? Let us take a look at everything. For the sake of convenience... And also because most people probably do it the opposite way, and a different angle may be of value... I'm going to start my analysis working backwards, starting with whatever is most recent. Day 3 Flamingo- Affirms suspicions on Vulture. Backs this up with plausible reasoning. Is also afraid that people will "willy nilly pick a person and no disagreement or discussion." I admit I don't see how this is related, and cannot really see this scenario as being a likely threat right now. Doesn't really have much to do with alignment, though. Heron- Raises some good points about activity. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather not lynch an active player if we can help it, but we should also be pretty careful about restricting our vision to only certain groups of players. However, since Heron's entire point is that they believe an elim has incentive to appear helpful, we can't really call this alignment indicative. Mouse- Mentioned me. Hi. Also responded to a post about the dustbringer maybe being evil. While I would expect some interesting role distributions on an anniversary game, that would be very hard to balance. More on that later. Heron- Makes an RP post. Is carrying on the glorious tradition of white text. Meerkat- Overviews the lynch, which I found rather helpful. Is starting to suspect Beagle. I will speak more about Beagle when I have read their recent posts. Vulture- Raises an interesting point about flamingo. Apparently flamingo accused Vulture of inactivity, and was online and ingored Vulture's later post claiming he was in fact active. I would brush this off, and say that flamingo probably just didn't have the time to make a proper post... But just recently flamingo made a quite comprehensive post and is still pointedly ignoring Vulture. This doesn't necessarily mean flamingo is an elim, but it does look a kinda sus. Heron- Votes on Beagle. Cites the Swan lynch. I will admit that I think the mixed usage of RP-names and account names hinders clarity. I still need to investigate Beagle before I can agree or disagree with this course of action. Dragonfly- More talking about Beagle. You know, I'm slightly surprised that the vast majority of discussion and suspicion seems to be directed at somebody who isn't actually leading in votes. Still, I withhold my judgement until I can actually read Beagle's posts and not what other people have to say about Beagle. Gorilla- Is a pinch hitter. Says they would rather lynch Vulture than Tautara... But then doesn't make any move to vote in that way. I get that you don't really like either candidate that well, but is there a reason you aren't going to use your vote to cause the result you said you would prefer? I am kind of wary of this sort of behavior. Vulture- Is basically requesting not to be lynched. Very much NAI. Dragonfly- Is commenting on a list of reads by Albatross that I want to go read now. Agrees on many counts with Albatross, but ultimately wants to stick with their vote on Tuatara. Cites previously given reasoning for this, so I will evaluate that when I get to reading it. Scorpion- Also agreeing with Albatross. I guess Albatross is a very agreeable sort. Albatross- Comments on a lot of players. Notably defends Beagle and Flamingo. Votes on Vulture despite apparently having two other suspicions they feel more strongly about, though I think I can understand this because neither of the other two had any votes on them. Also, I want to point out that mathematically the randomized odds at hitting an elim start out at about 20%, so you probably shouldn't refer to a neutral read as "50/50". Heron- I agree that we can't really trust that a skybreaker has successfully scanned Beagle last cycle. It is a possibility, and the possibility is reassuring, but there are way too many ways that could have gone wrong for us to rely on a skybreaker. Flamingo- Is suspicious of Rhino but it looks like that's because Rhino voted on them last cycle? Elephant- Paints the Tuatara lynch as basically a policy lynch, which isn't the impression I was getting from other players. Also is suspicious of Axolotl, because Axolotl said they thought the Tuatara lynch felt off. I'll be honest, I completely disagree with the notion that protesting a lynch that feels off is to be discouraged (Yes, you might say I have ulterior motives; I will be the first person to point out that Axolotl also defended me at some point... But I kind of reckon that an eliminator wouldn't be killing time on the first cycle by cracking my code, which is what Axolotl did ). However, I also don't think the elim mindset would be as quick to defend the mighty groupthink, so I conclude that Elephant is quite probably a villager. Flamingo- Asks if a skybreaker scanned Beagle. Possibly an innocent question. Possibly an indirect way to defend Beagle, if they happen to be teammates. Axolotl- Already talked about this in Elephant's post. Beagle- RPs the theft of curry. I approve, because a good curry is definitely worthy of theft. Scorpion- Totally bandwagons Tuatara, but is aware that this is what they are doing and is apologetic about it. I am withholding my judgement on Tuatara, but... Scorpion seems pretty honest about their motives, at least, which gives me a village lean. Flamingo- I quite enjoyed the RP-analysis hybrid. I've already said I disagree with the case against Vulture. Dragonfly- Is defending Beagle so completely that I do not think they could possibly be elim teammates together, because it would be too brazen a defense for an elim teammate. Beagle- At last, a post from Beagle (you'd think I would have hit one of their posts earlier given that Beagle is so active, but I suppose timezones are a thing), who seems to be the center of so much discussion. However they are tired and aren't saying too much, so I'll have to keep digging. Toucan- Ends up accusing Tuatara, and gives a good explanation for why. Honestly, I'm pretty sure a lot of players have tried saying "I won't vote unless I find a good lynch" at some point or other. I know I have. Most of the time the people trying this are villagers. I'm pretty sure this is a mistake you only make once, because I've seen very few things that draw votes as quickly as this sentiment. Vulture- Votes on Tuatara for casting a retaliation vote against Beagle. While I agree that Tuatara's vote probably was a retaliation vote, I'm not so convinced that this makes Tuatara an elim. Kangaroo- Makes some good points... Also seems to have totally forgotten about how he suspected me. Also is now refusing to vote, which is odd. Could probably do with a bit more scrutiny, but he does not typically say things that are very telling. Beagle- Partially accusing Tuatara, partially defending self. Is spending slightly more time on the self-defense part than I would have expected, but maybe I'm reading into it a little bit. Tuatara- Casts a vote on Beagle. I do not think lynching Beagle just for information is a good idea, and I do think that it is inconsistant with earlier saying you would not vote unless a really strong reason came up. But I also do not think this is necessarily an eliminator thing to do, and kind of agree with what others have said: that this lynch feels too easy. Ahhhh storms this is taking too long. I need some proper sleep and it's past 2am. Concluding Thoughts I'll take a moment to acknowledge last cycle's Swan lynch. In cycle 1 I suspected Swan and would have been happy to lynch them, but ironically I wasn't around during cycle 2 to have any input. I really can't say if I would have changed my mind or not with new evidence, but there's probably some interesting things to read into from that cycle. I will also note the loss of edgedancers. It's almost uncanny how precisely they were all eliminated. I will also note that this is an AG and we should expect some kind of unusual role distribution. Lynch discussion for this cycle: I don't really suspect Tuatara. They've voiced some unpopular ideas, but I do not think that reflects on alignment. I also don't really suspect Vulture. I'm not sure I really get the reason behind this lynch. As for Beagle... I think Beagle is a legitimate suspect, but I would not advocate lynching somebody this active if we have an alternative. Namely, I'd much prefer to lynch somebody I think would be Beagle's accomplice, in the attempt to implicate Beagle. I realize I am not backing any of the existing lynches, but I really don't agree with any of them. I believe Flamingo is the best lynch. In my opinion, they would probably be Beagle's teammate if Beagle were an elim. What's more, they are exhibiting suspicious behavior of their own, namely the whole Vulture thing which I still don't really get. I wish I felt more confident about this... But I still believe it is the best option before us. I definitely need sleep now. I apologize if any of this was badly worded, because I'm tired. Goodnight.

Well, I am most thrilled to see an audience filled with such anticipation for my words of great wisdom. Please, forgive me if you are made to wait a bit longer. Life is busy, as can be the case. Rest assured, I will certainly have some choice words to offer in the near future. If you want to try to kill or lynch me in the meantime, I reckon it's better that I die than that you kill somebody with an actually useful role, but... Don't expect anything useful out of it either. Anyhow, got to run (and I mean that rather literally). Also, foretelling the future is a thing of Odium, Alvron. I didn't even expect that I'd not be able to post so I *wonder* how you managed to foresee that...

I have 21 hours and 1 minute. I will have a substantial analysis before that time.

A 10 line poem. Very holy. Not quite on the level of a Ketek, but I still approve. Unless the first line is in fact the title, and thus it's actually 9 lines. That would imply that the writer is a servant of Odium

"But I am getting ahead of myself," Karthik continued as the townspeople pressed around the Melon Dingo. "We speak of journeys and destinations, but what are these? Or perhaps what we should be asking: How many of each are there?" He stood idly at the back of the crowd as they strung Dingo up. "Take this fellow, for example. He will be dead soon... But all of us will be dead, one day. Does that mean we share a common destination? Some would say yes." It was a common misconception that a noose choked its victims to death. Truth was, most people's necks gave out the instant the block was kicked. Dingo, however, was radiant. It took a long time for the noose to finish its work. At long last, the glow faded from Dingo's body, which hung limp above the crowd. "Others would say no. After all, what if death is not a destination, but merely a way-point we all share?" Karthik watched as Dingo was cut loose. "This raises an interesting question. If we have an eternal fate... Is this fate not both a final destination and an endless journey? If our journey and our destination are ultimately the same thing, how can we speak of one of these coming before the other? How can we say 'Journey Before Destination' when 'journey' and 'destination' are two ways to describe a single idea?" Karthik watched Dingo's bond unravel, the soul passing to the beyond, the spren cut loose. "In the face of eternity, we can make no such oath. Honor has never been much concerned with eternity."

I am not particularly advocating a tie vote, though I do not believe we should go out of our way to avoid a tie either. I am advocating a close lynch early in the game. Vote switching and vote manipulation are both rather informative (for example, it is potentially useful information that both you and me were up for lynch but ended up not getting lynched), and given how uncertain we are at that phase it makes sense to consider multiple candidates. Also, vote manipulation is anonymous, so I would contend that it is compatible with a distancing tactic, despite being highly noticeable.

Excellent, thank you. We have at least one other edgedancer, then.

@Orlok Tsubodai to clarify, are PMs still open? Also, to answer a pair of questions: In my experience, elims don't really care all that much who they lynch, so long as it isn't an elim. Elims will attempt to lynch people while distancing themselves from the lynch, though. As for a specific example... You are assuming I have a history with Sanderson Elimination. Theoretically though, a villager probably wouldn't manipulate a D1 lynch. So if there is manipulation, we can be decently sure that the eliminator team can vote manipulate (which is useful information in its own right). Whether they did it to save a team mate or frame somebody is another matter entirely, and making sense of that is by no means easy... But it still gives information, which we would not have access to if the lynch was not close.