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Magenta Albatross
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[OOC: You’re not wrong. And if anyone has guessed who I am, they would know I’m also not necessarily opposed to this situation. Assuming any vote manippers let it be a true flip of a coin. ] -
[OOC: You could also just vote on Dragonfly to extra insure their death, if that is something you are wanting? ]
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[OOC: So they’re either gonna vote manip this turn or coinshoot someone tonight? If the former, could you let me know so I know whether to expect my imminent death or not?]
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[OOC: That makes me feel better. I was beginning to think that was just a reaction test from Hyena. Glad to know I was not alone in receiving it. Though, I guess that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a reaction test. But it probably wasn’t then. Also it won’t let me quote the other part of your post. But I am aware that I have been lower activity as well. Though are you saying it would be incorrect to call you or myself lower activity?]
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[OOC: I think it’s worth bringing this to the thread at this point, in case I die. And considering the messenger ended up dying. On N5, I believe, Hyena messaged me about the existence of a mistborn they believed to potentially be spiked. At least, if Hyena ended up dying. Considering Hyena has died, I’ve been trying to figure out who the player might be. The only clues Hyena gave me were that it was an even numbered player (so Mouse, Penguin, Ostrich, Dragonfly, and Chameleon), and that other people had other clues delivered in similar PMs. Swan, I figure you received one of the clues as well? In other news, my suspects are all within that pool anyway because it includes Ostrich, Dragonfly, and Mouse, who have all been lower activity. Which I think fits the (hopefully) final elim profile. If I die, I would look at those people first.]
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[OOC: That’s a great point. I was not trying to shut down discussion about me, was just trying to defend myself. I’m sorry for how harsh that defense sounded. On another point, does anyone have a VC? Just curious, as it appears I have become a viable exe.]
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[OOC: I mean, I’m not sure how me reading the situation as V/V is out of the ordinary for me. All of my takes this game have been absurd. Mostly because I’ve been real busy and have had a hard time keeping up. Plus I like coming up with absurd theories. Also, for what it’s worth, we don’t know if I was right yet. We have Rhino’s flip (which I keep forgetting about), but not yours. As for the other stuff, you’re right that my takes have been very odd. I tend to have odd takes in general. And I can’t really say anything about Albatross 1.0’s comments because those were not even from me. EDIT: missed @Azure Mouse’s post. Why are you me calling a deer? I’m an Albatross ]
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[OOC: Don’t have a whole lot of time. But I would like more elaboration on this point. As far as I remember, I said I trusted Rhino more over you? But I was also flip floppy, if that’s what you’re talking about. As for my current reads, I trust Mouse, Chameleon, and Penguin. Sort of trust Swan and Elephant. Distrust Dragonfly and Ostrich. And am probably forgetting someone else.]
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[OOC: I know the reason why. I’ve just been busy with real life and forgot that and was very confused. I also didn’t read the thread title when opening it again. I like Mouse, but worry about Scorpion.]
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[OOC: Oh that reminds me about my suspicions of Penguin. They’re a little less because Flamingo turned out to be spiked. But I can’t remember anymore why that made me distrust Penguin less. Also thank you Chameleon for the explanation of that. I can’t really say much in response to that because I don’t know what Albatross 1.0 was thinking at the time. But I appreciate the explanations. I don’t think that Croc’s thing there was a slip about me being an elim. But I think it was an attempt to throw suspicion at me. Or, I say me. I mean Albatross 1.0. Oh also all those names in red keep making me think that people are actually voting. I forgot it was a night cycle. :P]
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[OOC: I’m confused what exactly is being said about me. Is that quote from Chameleon something Croc said or something Albatross 1.0 said? And what exactly did Croc say about me?]
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[OOC: Oops. Definitely meant to get on before the end of the cycle. The last couple days have been hectic. I am glad that Lion turned out to be an elim. However, I am unsure where to go from here. I also feel kind of bad for the elims.]
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[OOC: Opal Lion]
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[OOC: Well. That’s not the outcome I was expecting. Interesting.]
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[OOC: Ah. This is why I don’t like group PMs and trust groups. Always leads to a massive cremstorm when things come out in the thread eventually. As someone completely uninvolved with all of that mess, I think I slightly believe Rhino more. But only just barely. If Swan is who I think they are, then this feels perfectly in character for them. Which means that I think this whole situation on Swan’s part is like…98% NAI. There’s obviously a little bit of AI stuff we might be able to glean, but the actual act of lying to everyone and obfuscating things isn’t suspicious coming from them. In my opinion. I am also perfectly willing to believe that both Rhino and Swan are village and this is just a clusterstorm. We’ll see how things shake out in the next couple hours.]
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[OOC: Someone agreeing with you ≠ them being village. If everyone who agreed with us was village, then there would be no elims. Because everyone, through sheer probability, would have at least one person that agrees with them. And therefore they must be village, yeah? This point just does not make any sense to me. It's so easy to make a point like the one Toucan made, and I don't like how much credit you're giving them. Or how you're setting yourself up as a wannabe mayor. I'm not a fan of mayors, regardless of what side I am on. Do you want to explain why you don't think there's many reasons for me to be a "gud guy", as you put it? Hey. At least one of my ideas has been considered a good idea this game. Just because you personally haven't seen it happen doesn't mean it hasn't happened in the past. Or that this couldn't be the first time. Granted, me saying this is not evidence for my theory. But neither is your point evidence against my theory. This is not directed at me, but if Flamingo flips village, Rhino and Lion will shoot up to my two top suspects. If Flamingo flips elim, then I'll gain a little more trust for Rhino, and will have to figure out who I suspect the most. Will probably return to Penguin, who I was reminded of being in an interesting place from the D1 votes (thank you Chameleon for the D1 VC stuff). Everyone else who was a viable exe option D1 has all ended up dead and village. Except for Penguin. That is a decent place to look for an elim, in my opinion. Would mean I'd have to reevaluate my opinion of Scorpion, if Penguin flips elim.]
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[OOC: At least you’re honest about it. Doesn’t mean I like it any more than before.]
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[OOC: Does no one else notice Rhino clearly attempting to subtly set themselves up as the next Meerkas of the thread? Like, am I just seeing things? Meerkas dies, then Rhino comes out of the woodwork and starts talking about all this "village trust circle" business (not specifically quoted here). Rhino supposedly knew Meerkas was a mistborn the whole time. Would have been very easy to set up an untimely demise on his part. Maybe I'm just too paranoid. But I don't think we should let Rhino off the bat just because they stopped playing chaotically and seem to have lots of information and connections. You have a very valid point about wasting all the actions. That aspect of my (very admittedly crackpot) theory has been holding me back from espousing it even more strongly. Perhaps I just enjoy playing the part of devil's advocate too much. I find it fun to think of the craziest possible explanations for what could be really simple problems/solutions. As for my actual suspicions, I have had trouble keeping track of who's who. I think I like Hyena, if only because the only reason I can think of for an elim being as crazy as I have been in the thread is if they're trying to mimic my crazy theories, get me exed, then use my village flip for evidence of their own innocence. Hey, maybe- NO. No more crazy theories. Anyway. Got sidetracked. Where was I? Ah yeah, I kind of like Hyena. I think I trust Mouse for now, though I'm willing to reevaluate. They could be an elim caught in a sticky situation, but I don't think that's too likely. I don't like Scorpion, Rhino, or Chameleon. I like Weasel, and have solidly neutral/leaning village opinions of you, Toucan. Everyone else is in my null category because I can't remember anything in particular about anyone else. Sorry. While I do agree with a lot of the rest of your points from this post (and once again, part of my brain has hopped right on the crazy train with you), I do have a counter argument. Having been in a situation where my elim team's demise was near-inevitable--yet still having to play out the next 3 or however many cycles it was--being caught in a really tough bind can be super demoralizing. Especially when it's not really your fault, just bad luck with actions. Both your teams' and others'. Maybe it's because I've been in that situation before that I don't want this to be the case with this elim team. I guess I'm just trying to see how this could all be a master plan of theirs, instead of just a series of unfortunate steps that will cost them at least two elims. I guess we'll see tomorrow. Because I highly doubt we're getting another complete 180 exe like last time.]
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[OOC: I’ll actually disagree with this line of reasoning specifically. If you’ve survived an elim kill as a villager, you shouldn’t claim right away. Unless the spiked have a seeker, they don’t know how you’ve survived. Telling them your role when there’s a Coinshot around actively hurts the Coinshot (assuming they’re village, which seems likely to me) because it means that’s one less player the elims have to decide if they’re the Coinshot or not. Because you can guarantee the elims are trying to figure out who that is right now. As to why they would bother potentially keeping Flamingo alive forever: if there’s a Coinshot out there that you, as an elim, are afraid of, you kind of have two options to deal with them. You either find and kill them. Or you pocket them and direct their kills. These are both very difficult to deal with. So why not make a third option? Create/direct the village towards a very polarizing target who everyone wants dead, but keep them alive. Essentially, create a practice dummy for the Coinshot to waste their kills on. Maybe this is super crackpot and I’m seeing shadows where there are none. But I’m just so paranoid about this. It probably is for the best to take the bait and exe Flamingo though. But I don’t think we should assume they’re elim until we have them truly dead.]
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[OOC: Initial reaction: AGAIN??? I swear, Flamingo? More like flAMANgo with how long you’re surviving past your expiration date. Anyway. Call me crazy. But…I might agree with Hyena. You know what all this drama with Flamingo and Crocodile has made us forget? Our suspicions of Lion. Granted we could always come back to that. So maybe getting rid of Flamingo once and for really is for the best. But I cannot shake the feeling that we’re being toyed with at this point. And Flamingo feels like the poor little carrot at the end of the stick we’re chasing. Gah. I think…I think for our sanity, even though my heart is saying they’re good, we gotta vote Flamingo. Sorry dude.]
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[OOC: Well, at this point there isn’t much point in trying to talk about Flamingo as a valid option anymore. Right? I guess I may as well join the ginormous train: Crocodile]
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[OOC: If I was an elim, why would I go through all this trouble of going against the crowd? It's specifically drawing attention to me by saying that someone the majority of people think is suspicious might not be an elim. And maybe my thoughts on this don't seem genuine to you, but that is how I feel. Plus, my goal was to get us to talk and think things through. Maybe I didn't make this clear in my first post, but I was never 100% against voting on Flamingo. I just didn't want the discussion to die there.]
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[OOC: This is a very valid point. You are probably right that we may as well kill Flamingo today. If only because some people will keep trying to kill them until they're dead if we don't. I just feel bad, because it's almost certainly what the elims want. And I worry about stifling discussion. Which makes me hesitate to do it. But better to just bite the bullet I guess. Flamingo.]
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[OOC: Firstky, RIP Meerkas. I’m sure you feel much less stressed now though. Second, I think I actually agree with Penguin here. My initial reaction was to go all “burn the witch!” and vote Flamingo. But what are we going to talk about for the next 33.5 hours? What we ate for lunch? How our days are going? Deciding right here, right now, that Flamingo is the exe doesn’t really help us find elims. Even if Flamingo is one. It lets everyone hide behind the nice little ginormous train and not have to think about how they frame their votes. It’s way too easy for the elims to just get by scot free this turn if we focus all of our efforts on one person. I’m not saying we shouldn’t end up voting Flamingo. There are clearly some good reasons too. I’m just saying we should think things through. Because, for an elim, things have lined up pretty perfectly for them. Regardless of what alignment Flamingo and Lion are, we’ll be spending the next few IRL days focusing solely on them. Maybe the Coinshot (assuming they’re village) will go for whichever we don’t exe today. But if we don’t actually sit and have a discussion about why we’re voting for these people, we won’t gain any information. Which is exactly what the elims want. Think about that. The elims have more knowledge than we do. They have the knowledge of at least 4 players’ roles (their own) plus whoever they’ve managed to get roleclaim from. And they can even use process of elimination if they receive roleless claims. With all this information and the roles they have, is it really so hard to believe that they set this up intentionally? Not saying they have the Coinshot necessarily, but it wouldn’t be hard to guess that one of Flamingo or Lion was getting shot. Or maybe the elims have the Coinshot in their pocket. Who knows. But things may not be exactly as they seem. So I think it’s worth thinking things through more. Just something to think about.]
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[OOC: Sorry guys. It’s been a hectic couple days. And this completely slipped my mind. I meant to get on and vote at some point. Just forgot. I read page 1, skipped pages 2/3, and skimmed page 4 of D3. I really don’t like the last minute shift to Lion. I think Lion is an e!Thug and Chameleon is some sort of elim power role they wanted to keep alive by wasting Lion’s Thug extra life (and hopefully two of our exes).]
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