Coral Swan

I was not expecting there to be this much to read through. I do think Salmon Meerkat is suspicious for avoiding enemies. Ananame slipped into the room he was renting, then realized his boots were leaving marks all over the floor, so he repositioned the rug to cover his tracks.

As I understand it, it means I don't need to wear a tinfoil hat. Which I don't have, since I never stole one.

My character this game will be Ananame, a Noble Thief with a couple of detectives after him.

Is this the kind of thing we vote on someone for? Also, I'm a Smoker, which doesn't seem that useful. Hopefully saying this is fine. The cosmetic roles look fun, I'll try and pick one soon.

My mood this game, apparently. Sorry to all the villagers I killed, directly or indirectly. In particular, sorry @Sage Kangaroo, @Azure Mouse and @Sapphire Elephant. And @Magenta Albatross. Saving Private Onidsen RP is forthcoming. Good game to all. This was marvellous fun, even when I was banging my head against a wall. All the thanks to Elan and Devo as well, for tolerating me, and running a wonderful game

See, I'm starting to wonder. The basis for the Toucan clear is literally a minute of difference. He was "on" at 8:59; the cycle closed at 9:00. Is it really so ridiculous to postulate that, upon losing Scorpion, Toucan made the deliberate decision to only appear inactive for the night turn? Consider the following situation: Toucan opens his GM PM one minute before the cycle closes. He waits a minute or two until the start of the Night turn, when his order is valid, then hits send and closes the Shard for 24 hours. The Shard, seeing that he opened the PM at 8:59, does not record this minute or two of discrepancy. Meanwhile, we go on a wild goose chase after otherwise trustworthy people. Is it really that crazy? Toucan doesn't have to kill me; I'm not going to hit him if I think he's mechanically cleared. He is an otherwise very active player, having contributed significantly to our trust PMs before they were blown apart. Why vanish for those 24 hours? Why log out of the Shard a minute before the close of the cycle and not even bother to check the Day results? Unless you were trying something. Yes, Chameleon, you could be evil. Same with you, Falcon. But I've looked at those vote counts until my head wants to burst out of my skull. They don't add up. You haven't asked for mercy. You've asked to be shot. You want to help the village, I think, because you are a villager. The Spiked tried to kill you. They sat on their hands when Falcon was getting strung up, cool as cucumbers. The Thug question still doesn't add up with e!Falcon. Do I trust that, or do I trust a server-reported number which is known to have caused issues in the past? I've avoided bringing this up before, because it seemed paranoid, even though I've filed it away in my head ever since the initial clear. I want to trust Toucan. I've liked his contributions. But ultimately, I think to have been wrong for as long as I have, I have to be missing something. And this might be it. Toucan does not have exculpatory voting patterns. As soon as he was folded more fully into the trust group, it started dying. Rhino shot. Hyena shot. No more PMs. We know he was playing as the CS in some PMs. We thought it was good phishing, trying to get the Spiked to bite. But it is, by its very nature, performative, and Elims can perform such things just as easily as villagers. @Pearl Chameleon, @Emerald Falcon, I recognise I could be wrong here. But if I am wrong, I'd rather be wrong here than keep shooting up people I think are village. I'm going with my initial list. I'm shooting Toucan tonight. If I'm wrong again, and I may well be, you two can fight it out tomorrow. @Sapphire Elephant, I add you to the list of people I need to beg forgiveness from. To be fair, your voting patterns weren't the best. But we were both too paranoid, and not paranoid enough. @Chartreuse Penguin Protect whomever you will. I suggest yourself, as if I miss a shot tonight then my Coinshooting will start becoming actively dangerous, if it isn't already. @Fuchsia Ostrich, have the Soothe on standby. If I miss, we'll probably need it. I would un-clear you as well, but your inactivity was more extended, and I have been village reading you for an eternity anyway. Even if I sound like a broken record at this point: I am sorry. I keep leading the village into swamps. This is why I should never, ever be trusted with thread control. I miss Kas and Hyena and Rhino and Mouse and Ele and Weasel and everyone else who kept my madness in check. Yes. A half-repeat. I don't know if this is for me or the final Spiked at this point Sind Blitze, sind Donner in Wolken verschwunden? Eröffne den feurigen Abgrund, o Hölle, Zertrümmre, verderbe, verschlinge, zerschelle Mit plötzlicher Wut Den falschen Verräter, das mördrische Blut!

Double-posting, because I think this analysis is important.

If you are looking at this distro and legitimately believe in a six person elim team with a Thug and a Coinshot, I have a bridge to sell you. Transportation not provided. I will note that I have re-looked D3 and am slightly more sympathetic to your Chameleon argument, to the point where I’d agree it’s a more productive line of inquiry than falcon, but I still struggle to explain the Scorpion and Flamingo vote switches in light of e!Cham, especially Flamingo’s. Why do you re-tie your Soother with your Thug in the Exe?

Don’t believe so. I asked Penguin for protection once I figured out she’d rolled Lurcher, and since she did not PM me back afterwards, even I didn’t know I was being shielded till I survived. Eh, but. It makes a lot more sense for Chameleon to be Village on D3, and for you to be evil. The vote in question is Scorp’s, really—I can give a more thorough breakdown when I’m not on mobile, but Scorp moves the votes from a tie between Flamingo/Lion to a tie between Cham and Lion. Why? If both are evil, Flamingo is by far under more pressure/more exposed because of the failed CS kill. Why endanger your presumed Soother? (I know Ostrich has claimed Soother, and he’s not the final Spiked, but I still believe, with three village Smokers, that the Elims got some form of Emotional Allomancy, which the final member has.) The thread-brawl was complete baloney. It was engineered in a large PM (which included Elephant) in the hopes that it would generate enough confusion and suspicion on me that the Spiked would stay away with their kill. (Okay sorry I have been busy with schoolwork and addressing some other things, here I go. And for some reason, mobile put my quotes above this line of text. Okay.) Basically, no matter who’s evil, we have to explain something deeply counterintuitive and weird. If Elephant’s evil, he’s refrained from killing the CS/Mistborn for several consecutive cycles. This could be explained by not wanting to blow a deepwolf cover, but as he said, Pen and I were sitting ducks last night. My only other thought is that he wanted to get us to kill villagers for him—the more I misfire, the closer he can get to parity and the fewer cycles he has to dodge the Exe. Given how far off on the wrong track I was during C7, this is my working assumption. But I still don’t like it. Elim!Falcon presents role challenges. While the D2 vote is a small point in their favour, Ostrich is right that I likely shouldn’t overblow it. However, the Thug claim is of interest, particularly since nobody else has claimed it. To put it straightforwardly: I would expect at least one village Thug in this distro, and thus far there are none to be found. So even if Falcon is lying, and is Vanilla Spiked or some form of emotional Allomancer, the distro still makes no sense. Elim!Chameleon is a nonsensical D3. I will review the D3 votes to confirm this, but the Scorp switch makes zero sense from an elim perspective with e!Cham.

Bro the pool of three people that did not vote yesterday is dead or mechanically incapable of submitting a Spiked kill Not even that he's been lax with it. He's just done it while providing few thoughts of his own. It's a classic M'Hael tell. He did it in the MR as well. I am kicking myself for not picking up on it more than I did. I suppose it should be noted that Falcon could also be evil, if he's a Soother, but I maintain this makes far less sense than e!Ele simply because of the apathy surrounnding D2. Similar to Chameleon, though, I want to reread, if not the whole game, at least the posts of him, Falcon, and Ele, who are pretty much my last three suspects. @Chartreuse Penguin What metal did you roll?

*inhales* AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH *takes another deep breath* Okay. I hate this. but we need some honesty so here we go. I am not a Thug. Which, I think every player currently alive knows, lol. I am a Coinshot. A storming idiot of a Coinshot. And Sapphire Elephant has played a wonderful deepwolf game. To be clear: not only Ostrich, but also Toucan, were not on last night. Unless kill orders may be accepted in absentia ( @Devotary of Spontaneity??) they are not Spiked. Penguin, the Mistborn, submitted a kill on Mouse. Falcon was hung out to dry by the Spiked C2. Chameleon was hung out to dry by the Spiked C3. Barring an insane world, HaElephant has done a very nice bit of trust group infiltration. Why he did not kill me earlier, I really have zero clue. But I appreciate it. Congratulations on a well-played game. I hope this will finally end it. Dragonfly, Mouse: I am sorry y'all. Sincerely. I despise myself more than anything for not clearing my Ele blindspot >> edit: the Toucan proof. Rollover is at 9 PM for my timezone. Cham has independently testified to Ostrich.

Do note that while Dragonfly is likely dying tonight, Ostrich is also an inactive; if they do not materialise by rollover (and their profile can be checked at rollover) and a Spiked kill occurs, they will not have been able to submit it. Otherwise, if the game isn't over after tonight, there will be three kills. If there are two kills (one CS/one Spiked), our Mistborn is lying and should be suspected or killed. Ele and Toucan can spill the beans on that one. Otherwise, the Mistborn is definitely clear, and you should look into Ele and Toucan themselves, and possibly Weasel/Cham/Falcon/Penguin. If the game isn't over and there are just two Coinshot kills, it's looking like an E!Ostrich world. Good luck have fun don't die till the rising of the sun lasst uns den Namen des Herrschers verehren!

Now I'm regretting my decision to switch. Ack. Got too clever. Sorry Striker, you will be avenged :salute: I am also starting to wonder a bit about Toucan and Ostrich but eh. I would recommend the Coinshot hit Dragonfly because there's clearly not much appetite to actually use an Exe on him. If I die, I will note that I am starting to wonder a bit about Toucan. Still think DF is most likely though.

Es ist vollbracht?

Nah, I think this is more fun. Not like I don’t have suspicions against you. If Alv was here, he would want it this way.

I mean, your imminent death is more or less in the hands of the three people who are not voting for anyone right now, rather than the Mistborn’s. If the Mistborn does have manip, which is possible, I am leaving it to their judgement how they use it. (Same for a Coinshoot.) So I cannot pretend to be able to tell you with apodeictic certainty whether you will live or die. Also, there is a Soother unaccounted for out there. So. You might die that way if DF is a Spiked. I’ll admit, one reason I switched to you is that if DF is Spiked, and decided to Soothe my vote earlier this cycle, he will be condemning himself if he fails to log back in, which I thought was a fun bit of irony

There is a Mistborn. I do not believe said Mistborn is Spiked, and they should be taking a publicly visible action towards that end sometime in the near future, which should clear up any remaining doubts. If things are somehow unclear on D8 and I am dead, you may consult Ele and Toucan.

Ivory Dragonfly (4): Indigo Weasel, Magenta Albatross, Pearl Chameleon, Azure Mouse Magenta Albatross (4): Sapphire Elephant, Emerald Falcon, Sunburst Toucan, Coral Swan Hmm. Y’all raise interesting points, and I think I want to bring this Exe closer to see what our three non-voters (@Ivory Dragonfly, @Fuchsia Ostrich and @Chartreuse Penguin) make of the situation. Toucan’s theory that the Elims were banking on Alb being attacked over Scorp is an interesting one—it’s trivially true that Scorp was on at EoD and saw our suspicion against her, but it’s also possible she stuck with Albatross protection given the amount of discussion on him last night as well. And while I’m not as confident reading into Croc’s posts post-mortem, I do think Falcon raises some good points. This is, at any rate, more fruitful discussion than piling on against a near-inactive. That said, I also don’t want to presume on the CS’s goodwill too much—while I expect them to attempt a shoot on whomever we don’t Exe, it’d be good to get this right on the first go. Dragonfly’s lack of engagement this cycle has still not felt great. Uh, here’s your vote count, Alb.

More that you read the interaction as v/v very quickly. To be fair, we might simply have not been as convincing as we thought we were, but it was something more in line with what we were looking for as a TMI response. The Elims would know this was a misunderstanding, and that was pretty much how you framed the interaction. Again, it’s a bit hypocritical because you were obviously right but it’s just something to note. My suspicion on you is coming more from the other stuff I said.

This is the chance at a redemption arc, Trust PM Bro

A list of villagers from most to least likely to be Village: 1. @Coral Swan Ich bin’s. I am a scanned Thug patiently waiting to die. I’m sure the Elims will be merciful to me eventually. 2. @Indigo Weasel Crocodile was attempting to put suspicion on him both D2 and D3, and the wagon failed to take off only because the village wisely chose not to bite. This is combined with a strong meta read which makes me think Weasel is playing inside very v!Weasel parameters, as well as village-helpful voting patterns. Notably, he has passed two reaction tests with flying colours. Focus on me suggests villager, since Elims would not waste breath going after me, and might instead try to pocket me. While I would like to hear more from him, I have strong doubts that he is evil in any sane world. 3. @Emerald Falcon The Soothe on C2 came from Meerkat. As such, the Eliminators left the Falcon/Heron votes at 6:5 with no signs of using their own Soother, nor scrambling votes which were on side-wagons (Flamingo/Lion, both who seemed to be on at EoD) to save their teammate who was getting caught up in the Exe. Falcon has been a solid analyst when posting as well. E!Falcon worlds require entirely too much tinfoil to believe. 4. @Chartreuse Penguin An OG member of Meerkat’s trust group. Penguin was attacked with two very sticky Spiked votes D1 and essentially hung out to dry. Assuming there is only one Elim left (which seems a reasonable assumption), in an e!Penguin world, the Spiked are saved by the last-second actions of…two villagers? Doesn’t make much sense. Has been a helpful voice in PMs, but hopefully should post more in-thread with them being taken down as well. 5. @Pearl Chameleon Votes have not been the absolute cleanest, but the Spiked’s clear preference for Cham over both Lion and Flamingo on D3 suggests v!Chameleon very strongly. Chameleon’s own shift to Lion reflects well also. Not quite as firm as the Falcon read, but unless you want to explain how we got three Spiked in the main wagons D3…quite willing to trust him for now. As with the others, would love to hear more. 6. @Sapphire Elephant A very solid contributor to vote analysis. Has been entrusted with vital information since C3-4 as part of the Meerkat group, and has not yet appeared to act on said information. Votes are a bit weirder—the Chameleon vote D3 is an eyebrow-raiser—but has given off a willingness to solve and a genuine interest in analysis which speaks well of them. Meerkat trusted a meta read of them—I know who they are, but cannot really say the same for my part. 7. @Fuchsia Ostrich Has had spotty activity, but seems to take genuine solving interest when actually online. Unfortunately, has flown under my radar enough that I cannot say much about them. Their relative absence from the vital proceedings D2/D3 speaks mildly well of them, probably, though throwing a late vote on Lion D3 could be read badly. Introduced the Falcon CW on D2, which feels unnecessary for an Elim to do—the Heron vote was fine for their purposes. Basically the perfect definition of a moderate village read. 8. @Sunburst Toucan Was folded into a trust group extension D5, and has acquitted himself relatively well. Confusion between Scorpion (elim) and Iguana (villager) D1 very much suggests village, though I am unwilling to fully derpclear in instances like this because we have already seen Elim willingness to attempt derpclears (see: Croc D3 acting confused about who killed whom). Solid and consistent analyst, relatively inoffensive vote patterns (did start the Cham train D3 and never hop off, though this was before Scorp and Flamingo jumped into it). D2 Rhino vanity wagon vote was also relatively stable. As a whole, Toucan’s profile is almost offensive in how thoroughly mild village it is. It’s almost a parody of a mild village read. Placing below Ostrich because I think his votes look slightly worse, but they’re functionally equivalent. 9. @Magenta Albatross I am reminded of a quote from the late Meerkat, when I say that I can look at Albatross and simply be thoroughly confused at what the storms his evaluation of the gamestate is, simply because it’s so foreign to my own. This isn’t necessarily bad in itself—having some contradictory voices are helpful for keeping you out of azbantium-grade tunnels—but at some point you do wonder if he’s just Evil trying to push some wagons using refuge in audacity. Also has just storming weird connections to Croc, such as the one I highlighted last Night. I’m not really opposed to an Exe on him, especially since he seemed to have a bit of TMI in his read of Rhino and I’s clash during N5. The one thing holding me back is the lack of voting urgency in the cycles where you have the Elims as candidates in close shrekkings—he’s simply blissfully uninvolved, or pursuing lines like Weasel. Huh? You can argue the Spiked don’t need him, yeah, but it is just a weird look overall to have zero engagement with the main votes. Sitting at null minus. 10. @Azure Mouse I might actually be leaning back into v!Mouse, but my brain is chewing on her alignment and posts like a dog with a particularly stubborn bone. None of the interaction makes sense to me. She’ll do things like give a more or less lightning-fast turnaround upon receiving the Croc scan to publish it with the thread (yes, I was the person one up the chain from her), but earlier, after suspecting him for two straight cycles, pretty much immediately follow his vote onto Heron, flick-knifing the train into the lead past Flamingo. Would e!Mouse be so bold? Idk. Then you have Croc taking her out of Exe contention with seven minutes left on D1, Croc being the one to have put her in Exe contention to begin with, Flamingo giving her a strong trust read for no discernible reason. Mouse stayed on Flamingo for a while D3, then abruptly took him completely out of contention by switching onto Lion. But she switched onto Lion and not Cham. Her Croc reads oscillate between suspicion and trust. At this point, there’s actually just too much contradictory data for me to sort what I actually think of it. Maybe it’s most likely that she’s a villager who had the misfortune to fixate on, and interact extensively with, an Elim starting D1. Maybe she’s an Elim, and the extensive interaction is intentional so she can “develop” a v read of Croc. Ultimately, she’s this far down mainly because I want her alignment sorted, but I also don’t really want to Exe her because there is scant reason besides a ton of interaction I can’t parse. So. If the Seeker could sort this non-lethally, I would really love that 11. @Ivory Dragonfly I have already detailed my reasons here. To what I’ve already said, I’ll add that Crocodile, when there was a decent Dragonfly wagon going D2, went to Heron instead of him. Dragonfly himself is responsible for more or less cementing both the Heron and the Dingo wagons. See also Meerkat and Rhino’s posts where they talk about him. Given the fact that Scorp wasn’t Lurched, I think he’s our logical starting point.

Y’all please vote? On someone?

I was about to say "I'll PM you" but then realised Will you forgive me if I (try to) go to bed and give you a complete breakdown in the next 24 hours, and you can propose alternatives in that timespan as well? FWIW, I don't really want to vote you out today. If I had to give you a tl;dr version it's basically: your entire D1 and argument with him, Croc retracting a vote on you D2 which he never placed, Croc retracting a vote on you D1 seven minutes to rollover, you and Croc flick-knifing the Heron wagon D2, a later post where you actually read him village. this is just off the top of my head and is a fairly extensive list, so you can appreciate why I've been agonising over your alignment the past 24 hours

A Coinshot kill...went through? O schöne Zeit! O Abendstunde! There are a few lines of inquiry here, but I think I will start with Ivory Dragonfly. Evidence: Very suspicious D1/D2 votes. Lack of self-Lurching from Scorpion suggests that the other elim was not on to submit a kill. Soothing present on D3 vote fits activity profile of Dragonfly, and there are no other Mistborn or Soothers claiming responsibility for the Chameleon Soothe, which I find more likely to be from an elim Soother because two village Smokers have flipped, suggesting emotional Allomancy capabilities from the elim team. Dragonfly has been on the edge of suspicion the past few nights and has generally been ignored on account of an inability to submit certain Lurches, but since he's not the Lurcher...the bill might come due. I still want to take a look at Mouse and Albatross but we'll see how things shape up from here.

Wäre dieser nicht ein Übeltäter, wir hätten dir ihn nicht überantwortet. More seriously, I apologise for being vague as to the cause of my specific suspicion, and did not mean to exclude you from the discussion. During Day Three, when Lion, Flamingo, and Chameleon were all up for the Exe, you elected to break a 4-4-3 Lion-Flamingo-Chameleon vote in favour of a 4-3-4, bringing the votes from a tie between two eliminators to a tie between the eliminator Thug, who would survive, and a Villager. This vote remained until the end of the cycle. Since then, you have attempted to save Lion, another Elim. Do you have any suspicions you would like to present for the village's consideration? I am always happy to find more reasons to shrek people