Coral Swan

First off, you missed marking some of the villagers who have died. Not sure if that changes anything for you. First, stuff from this thread. This was me. That being said, it doesn't really give me any town cred as it wasn't intentional to save them. That was my soothe. Other info we have are role claims: Coral Swan (myself): Soother Azure Mouse: Smoker Indigo Weasel: Thug Emerald Falcon: Vanilla Ivory Dragonfly: Claimed Smoker, most likely was a lie. Chartreuse Penguin: Unknown Amber Vulture: Unknown If any of these are incorrect or I'm forgetting/missing some, please let us know. Until Dragonfly can better explain what happened I'm going to be voting for them. @Ivory Dragonfly You said two cycles ago you were smoking yourself and Melon Dingo. You also said that you had not changed that for the next cycle, which would mean that yourself and Melon Dingo would still be smoked. I soothed Dingo, so unless a third person soothed someone who was voting for Heron, you were lying about smoking. So, are you a smoker who just lied about your target, or do you have a different role? Also, I think every single player should give a reads list of all the remaining players. Here is mine. Village at top elim at bottom. @Indigo Weasel, @Emerald Falcon, @Amber Vulture, @Chartreuse Penguin, @Charcoal Hyena, @Ivory Dragonfly. Maybe having the reads list won't help us a ton currently, but after two more deaths the information could be crucial if we find ourselves at lylo at day six. If you have reasons, great, but at the very least please list all remaining players in order from who you think is most likely village to most likely elim.

2v6 okay well shoot I'm guessing this was an elim mistborn who rolled coinshot who killed croc? Which was an interesting choice if so. Really hope it wasn't dingo (not sure if that would work but is a possibility). Dragonfly for now I didn't really understand your explanation for why you lied about smoking yourself and dingo? @Ivory Dragonfly

Like, in the past?

Too bad dingo already had iron and pewter, it'd be hilarious if they survived two nks Anyways, is @Ivory Dragonfly going to respond at all?

Okay! Things are looking up. Some interesting things that happened yesterday. During the later part of the day I PMd @Ivory Dragonfly to ask if they were smoking this round and they told me that they were smoking themselves as well as Melon Dingo. The reason they gave was that they were still paranoid of elim vote manip (which I think is silly as we've seen evidence of one consistent vote manip (myself) which is resolved by making the train at least two higher). I personally think it's more important to leave oneself open to scan for clearance as a villager. But I digress. Dragonfly told me that they were smoking themselves and Melon Dingo. I decided I would soothe Melon Dingo as long as Heron was up by a vote, which is what ended up happening. Heron has confirmed that they did not have vote manip this round. This means that there are two options. A: Dragonfly lied about smoking Dingo, my soothe was successful, and another soother/mistborn with a soothe soothed a vote off dragonfly. B: Dragonfly told the truth about smoking Dingo, and my soothe was unsuccessful. There would then be two additional soothers/mistborn with a soothe that soothed heron and dragonfly once each. I personally think the first is much more likely. So, Dragonfly, why did you lie about smoking Dingo? (Yeah ik it's night I guess im just a bit eager lol)

Why is everything so quiet?

@Emerald Falcon @Melon Dingo hi

Pretty sure they were planning on voting you this entire time and is saying people should consolidate on you.

What does that mean?

I am slightly worried about a world with e!mistborn that has vote manip this turn. Not sure how likely that is tho

Should I just not soothe today?

I was just quoting a previous post of mine and looks like the quote failed to format correctly and doesn't exist, but ig it's fine cuz its who I'm voting for regardless. I'll go ahead and put it in a quote box tho

It was me, not Bryar? Unless I'm totally missing what is being asked. Also, this is what I said in my first large post of D3: I then continued to go through each players posts and reevaluated if I thought I should vote for them. If all of my large posts that day were combined, there wouldn't have been a vote on heron. Plus you didn't ask me to switch to Heron, you just said you would be more inclined to trust me if I had voted for Heron instead of going straight to voting Dragonfly, which applied to my first vote that day not my subsequent votes. I tried to soothe hyena cuz I didn't want a tie but put the action in right at rollover so it wasn't counted.

@Emerald Falcon I had these quotes but then mobile nuked my post so this is what we get. I knew what weasel was doing with the apples, it was pretty obvious... Also yeah I was the one who soothed heron so, as I've just soothed to make my vote stronger each time.

Like I said, my main reason for voting dragonfly before was because I thought there was a e/e pairing with tuatara, so once they flipped village and I went back over my previous thoughts and then reread everything again I felt better about them.

Technically started when Dragonfly was the lead train. Dragonfly had 3 votes, ostrich train started and heron train started soon thereafter. But before either of those trains took off, it was Dragonfly 3 with both Heron and Ostrich with two until Dingo voted for Ostrich which booted him up and made Dragonfly and Heron 2 and Ostrich 3 and then heron and ostrich kept getting more votes.

Okay Dingo has to be village. If they're elim, I think elims just win so well played if that's what happened With distro, we currently have 2 village vanilla, a village lurcher, a village rioter, and then claimed roles of two smokers, a mistborn, and a soother (myself). Assuming dingo is village, that means the village has 2 vanilla, a lucher, a rioter, a soother, and a mistborn. There are still 2 smokers, and 7 unclaimed roles. I do think it's just 3 elims, but I guess there is a possibility of 4 less power heavy elims with so many village power roles. I wouldn't be surprised if the elims had a smoker + a mistborn + another something. Could be any other number of combos though. Assuming there are no thugs and lurchers remaining, the soonest the game can end with a village lose assuming 3 elims would be currently 3v8, after d4 3v7, after n4 3v6, after d5 3v5, after n5 3v4, after d6 3v3. Okay, so we still have some time to figure the game out. This of course could go longer with protects/extra lives and could go shorter with coinshots/more elims. But the players remaining are: Amber Vulture Azure Mouse Charcoal Hyena Chartreuses Penguin Coral Swan (myself)- Soother Emerald Falcon Indigo Weasel Ivory Dragonfly- Smoker Mauve Crocodile Melon Dingo- Mistborn Mint Heron- Smoker Okay lets look at likely distributions if Heron is elim vs if Dragonfly is elim (as I think it's quite unlikely that both are). Heron voted Cream Tuatara on D1, voted Cream Tuatara on D2 again, and voted Fuchsia Ostrich D3. Dragonfly voted Melon Dingo D1, voted Cream Tuatara on D2, and voted Mint Heron on D3. Lets then take a look at how the Ostrich train evolved on D3. Before there are any votes on Ostrich, Heron votes on myself. Crocodile is the first to vote for Ostrich. At this point Dragonfly has the most votes (3 to all 1s). I vote for Heron briefly, and then change my vote to Ostrich as I continue to go through each players posts throughout the game. At this point, Dingo joins the Ostrich train, and now Ostrich has 2 votes while Heron, Dragonfly, and Vulture each have 2. Falcon votes for Dragonfly and Dragonfly votes for Heron, putting Ostrich, Heron, and Dragonfly all at 3 votes. Hyena then votes for Ostrich, putting Ostrich at 4 and Dragonfly and Heron both at 3. This is the point that Heron votes for Ostrich. This puts the votes at 5 Ostrich, 3 Dragonfly, and 3 Heron. Technically Heron was only one off dying but wasn't currently on the chopping block. Falcon adds a vote to Heron, ending in the 5 for Ostrich and 4 for Heron, which ended up being 3 as I soothed to make my vote have more weight. Dragonfly did not take their vote off of Heron. If they had joined the Ostrich train at that point it would have looked a lot worse, but I think with all of this Dragonfly looks better than Heron. So if Heron is elim, I would look at their D1 reads list, which is given as follows. Positive: Emerald Falcon, Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Ivory Dragonfly Slight Negative: Amber Vulture, Chartreuse Penguin, Fuchsia Ostrich, Charcoal Hyena, Melon Dingo Slighter More Negative: Cream Tuatara, Coral Swan (myself) Medium Negative: Indigo Weasel, Mauve Crocodile Albatross doesn't make this list. We know that the three dead players are all village. I know i am village and am going to assume dingo is village. If Heron is elim, I think it is very unlikely that dragonfly is also elim, so I have them in green as well. So now lets look at how the remaining players have viewed heron throughout the game. Azure Mouse in a post earlier on lists Emerald Falcon and Mint Heron as possible elims. Also believes that both Dragonfly and Heron likely aren't elims together. Mouse does end up voting for Heron on D3 and doesn't change it. At the point of this vote, Dragonfly has 3 votes, Vulture has 2, and Heron has 1, so this before more votes started to pile up on Heron later in the day. If Heron and Mouse are e/e, it would appear that Mouse was setting up to bus Heron if necessary. Amber Vulture has not given any reads on Heron that I have seen. Chartreuse Penguin on D2 lists 5 players and guesses that 2 of them are elim. The listed players are Emerald Falcon, Mint Heron, Azure Mouse, Charcoal Hyena, and Cream Tuatara. Tuatara has flipped village, but all other players are still living. Penguin then votes for Mint Heron. When asked to give reads on both Heron and Dragonfly on D3, ends up voting Dragonfly after stating that both of them seem villagery. This honestly feels like an elim trying to do what asked to stay off the radar but doesn't actually make sense. Why vote for someone that you read as villagery? At this point, there were 3 votes on Dragonfly, 2 votes on Vulture, and one vote on Dingo. Honestly feels like Penguin could have been distancing from Heron early on and then voted on the other smoker when it seemed like they were likely to die, just jumping on an easy train. Charcoal Hyena's first mention of Heron was on N2 when they said that they were fine with either a Dragonfly or Heron vote, which honestly most everyone has said at this point. On D3, they voted for Ostrich, which tipped the vote from 3 each on Ostrich, Heron, and Dragonfly, to 4 on Ostrich and 3 on the other two. Could be an elim teammate of Heron's moving in to try to protect a possible tie death. Indigo Weasel voted Heron early on in the game without reasoning other than reactions to their apple game. They did vote for Heron D3 though, and was the first player to do so. Of the Heron D3 voters, I think Mouse is more likely to be an elim accomplise. Mauve Crocodile's reads of Heron were not village earlier on and has shifted over time to...something? Lots of posts about how we should vote heron or dragonfly but ended up voting for Ostrich so idk. My best guess would be Heron/Penguin/Hyena as an elim team. Now lets look at the flip side of dragonfly being elim. Dragonfly didn't give an early reads list, but we have one from them from D3, so lets use that. Melon Dingo: General willingness to solve the game Indigo Weasel: Quick to vote and act Mauve Crocodile: Still thinking that Day 2 was a bunch of Village trains Amber Vulture: Strong defense of Hayden in PMs Charcoal Hyena: Breaking the tie Day 1 Fuchsia Ostrich: Inactivity, but my gut says village Chartreuse Penguin: Less good gut read Coral Swan: Keeps dropping off my radar, but has a weird vibe. Mint Heron: Null kind of read Azure Mouse: I'm not sure why, but I've got a negative gut read on him. Just seems active enough to move the thread, but not standing out Emerald Falcon: Well aware I'm probably digging a tunnel to Southern Scadrial. Still can't shake this read though. In this scenario, Heron is likely a villager. Same reasoning for marking myself and Dingo. Indigo Weasel: The entire game Weasel has been against Dragonfly votes. Could be a teammate protecting them, could not be. Muave Crocodile had Dragonfly in an early readslist as village, but ends up questioning it and voting for Dragonfly. Doesn't really feel like e/e interaction, but idk Amber Vulture N2 says to keep an eye on Dragonfly, but that's the only thing they have said regarding Dragonfly. Again, no way to know. Charcoal Hyena's first mention of Heron was on N2 when they said that they were fine with either a Dragonfly or Heron vote, which honestly most everyone has said at this point. On D3, they voted for Ostrich, which tipped the vote from 3 each on Ostrich, Heron, and Dragonfly, to 4 on Ostrich and 3 on the other two. Could be an elim teammate of Dragonfly's moving in to try to protect a possible tie death. Would have expected this to happen earlier though, as Dragonfly had votes on themselves at the start of the day while Heron got them later on. Chartreuse Penguin voted for Dragonfly, adding a 4th vote to the train. Could be an elim teammate bussing Dragonfly, or a villager just joining the vote. Azure Mouse doesn't ever give reads on Dragonfly so idk. Emerald Falcon has an early reads list for Dragonfly as village and ends up voting for Heron on D3. When they switched their vote to Heron on D3, Dragonfly wasn't in danger of dying. If I had to put together an elim team here, I would say Dragonfly, and idek. Falcon maybe? Vulture maybe? Not enough info to have a good idea there. So after all that, Heron does look worse than Dragonfly. There is still the possibility of Heron/Dragonfly v/v but I don't think that's the case. I don't really like this post at all. Do you have reads on anyone else? Why vote for Dragonfly? Do you not have thoughts about any other players? Nobody that feels like elim or village to you? I understand that you might feel like its gonna be you or dragonfly so you gotta vote dragonfly, but why not try to solve the game instead of automatically going to logic given to others, which is solely based on role distro guesses? Heron If Heron flips elim, I think the next vote should be either Hyena or Penguin. Probably Hyena first. If Heron is villager, idk what we do. Ig dragonfly could be elim, but I'm honestlly leaning more towards a villager dragonfly which would mean v/v smokers. At that point it would probably make sense to look into who started pushing for one smoker being elim first, but I feel pretty strongly that Heron will flip elim. Also @Azure Mouse and @Amber Vulture could we get some reads from you guys?

Unless they are hiding vote manip because none of their teammates have been threatened yet, I highly doubt that they would have vote manip that hasn't been seen.

Okay i obviously need to go sleep lmao duh im just dumb gn

Well crap. Why are all these votemanips not using their abilities? Does this mean they were attacked but survived or is it just writeup stuff? I'm so lost At least one of Mint Heron or Emerald Falcon has to be elim right?

For each of my reads posts, I had a paragraph with thoughts about those players at the end. But yeah, most of them end up being idk what my read is so not super helpful.

Could you at least confirm whether ostrich has been talking in PMs today?

Okay, the last three that haven’t died yet Crocodile Poke Votes Coral Swan (myself) D1 Votes Cream Tuatara for trying to get me to claim a role Votes for Charcoal Hyena Says Albatross was their biggest village read D1 on D2 Says they sent everyone a PM (I didn’t receive one :’( ) Read Cream Tuatara as village and strongest village read as Emerald Falcon Readlists Village: Emerald Falcon, Cream Tuatara, Ivory Dragonfly, Coral Swan (myself), Charcoal Hyena Not village: Azure Mouse, Amethyst Scorpion, Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich Votes for Ostrich Questions village read of Ivory Dragonfly Votes for Ivory Dragonfly Doesn’t think that both Ivory Dragonfly and Mint Heron are villagers Is 75% certain that Fuschia Ostrich is a villager Votes for Ivory Dragonfly Thinks the votes should be between Ivory Dragonfly and Mint Heron Village reads Melon Dingo but not sure about Indigo Weasel Is okay with Amber Vulture being wagoned Mentions that Ostrich is in PMs Sees possible Ostrich/Vulture/+1 if not Heron or Dragonfly Votes for Ostritch Dingo Reads Mauve Crocodile and Indigo Weasel as suspicious and votes for Indigo Weasel Trusts Cream Tuatara Votes for Mint Heron and Trusts Emerald Falcon the most Didn’t truest Mint Heron because he had soothed them but was smoked https://www.17thshard.com/forums/topic/198985-ag11an15-day-three-desolation-row/#findComment-1844454 This post I don’t like. What are you wanting to save until later? Why not just share it today? Votes for Amber Vulture Votes for Ostrich Falcon Thinks that either Cream Tuatara and Magenta Albatross or Cream Tuatara and Coral Swan (myself) are elims and votes for Cream Tuatara. Reads list Village: Azure Mouse, Indigo Weasel, Ivory Dragonfly Mid: Melon Dingo, Fuchsia Ostrich Elim: Coral Swan (myself), Magenta Albatross, Cream Tuatara N1 Lists Mauve Crocodile and Fuchsia Ostrich as suspicions Mauve Crocodile, Fuchsia Ostrich, and Melon Dingo have been added to their elim reads Votes for Mauve Crocodile but is also fine with the Ivory Dragonfly votes Says we should kill anyone who pushed Cream Tuatara should they flip village (which was Heron and Dragonfly at the end of the day) Crocodile has moved up reads list on D3 Reads Melon Dingo as village Votes Amber Vulture for openwolfing (I don’t think they are?) Is okay with Dragonfly or Heron dying Questions for @Mauve Crocodile What has caused your reads of Ostrich to change so drastically? If Ostrich flips village, what would your read of Amber Vulture be? Has Ostrich been talking to you in PMs during D3? Questions for @Melon Dingo What was it you were wanting to wait to discuss until N3? Is it the thing we have discussed in PMs already or something else? What's your reasoning for voting Ostrich? Just not quite understanding. Questions for @Emerald Falcon What are your thoughts on Fuschia Ostrich? What is your read of myself? Not sure what I think about Crocodile, but leaning village still. Feels like they are trying to solve the game. Finding out the Ostrich has been in PMs doing stuff though is interesting. @Fuchsia Ostrich why don’t you come out to the thread to talk? I’m not gonna vote Dingo this turn, but doesn’t feel as strong of a village read as previously did. Idk how I feel about Emerald Falcon. Tbh the fact that I don’t have a read for them with all they have been saying doesn’t feel awesome. Vote Count: Heron (3): Weasel, Mouse, Dragonfly Dragonfly (3): Ostrich, Penguin, Falcon Ostrich (3): Crocodile, Swan, Dingo Dingo (1): Vulture Swan (1): Heron No Vote: Hyena I do not like a 3 way tie at all.

More thoughts Vulture Is PM spidering I believe he is reading Cream Tuatara as village and tells Mint Heron to not vote for them Votes for Emerald Falcon based off of what he has been told Very strongly argues that Cream Tuatara is village Says to keep an eye on Ivory Dragonfly on N2 Votes for Melon Dingo D3 and gives contradicting posts as the reasoning Weasel Offers apples and eventually votes for Coral Swan (myself) because I took the red one. Switches vote to Mint Heron and reads Coral Swan (myself) as village Thinks that Amethyst Scorpion isn’t spiked Votes for Mint Heron without reasoning Switches vote to Azure Mouse for claiming that they are unbothered by the suspicion given towards them. Doesn’t give reasoning until asked. Switches vote to Coral Swan without reasoning Votes Mauve Crocodile for PM spidering and doesn’t want Ivory Dragonfly, Emerald Falcon, or Cream Tuatara to die. Votes Mint Heron D3 for being smoker Doesn’t like votes on Ivory Dragonfly Penguin One RP post D1 and N1 D2 thinks that 2/5 of Emerald Falcon, Mint Heron, Azure Mouse, Charcoal Hyena, and Cream Tuatara are elims. And lists all but Cream Tuatara as top suspicions. Votes for Mint Heron. Votes for Ivory Dragonfly over Mint Heron, and says they might be changing their vote to one of Mauve Crocodile or Fuschia Ostrich. Questions for @Amber Vulture Can you please give some more reads than just Melon Dingo? Is there anyone you think is a villager? Anyone else you think might be elims? What happened to the info you got regarding Emerald Falcon that caused you to vote for them? Questions for @Indigo Weasel What are your reads on myself, Azure Mouse, Mint Heron? You said that the reason you are voting Mint Heron is because they are the most talkative of those that you are suspicious of. Who are the other ones that fall under that list of suspicious for you? Questions for @Chartreuse Penguin Are you planning on changing your vote? If you read both Dragonfly and Heron as villages, why would you vote for one of them? Do you have any more reads for us? I literally have no idea how to read Vulture as they have posted very little in thread. I would very much love some reads from them and more in thread interaction. You may be solving the game in PMs, but the power of village is to be able to pool our thoughts together so you staying out of the conversation doesn't help much. I don't know how I feel about Weasel. I kinda feel like they are being intentionally chaotic but idk if that leads to elim or village. Penguin hasn't posted enough for me to have an opinion on.

What does vanitying mean?