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Sapphire Elephant
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Mouse Unless there's good reason to believe that the Bondsmith soothe on you was not an Elim move to save you, this is our best chance to find an evil player, I think. -
Thanks for being willing to keep my role confidential, Dragonfly, but I'll claim it here. I'm a regular villager. Looks like I was wrong about the Mouse train - that vote manip looks a lot like an Elim attempt to save Mouse. Looks like we found one. Hope we have enough votes to pull it off tomorrow.
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That makes a little more sense. As you say, we're way too late in the game for that to be worthwhile. But poor judgement isn't the same as suspicious activity, I guess. And of course. I wanted to do a full and complete reread to sift out whatever information I could. That became...unrealistic, for a number of reasons (not least preparing for my job interview today!) and my promised contributions to the thread weren't forthcoming. I finally decided that I'd participate and vote based on the information I had instead of freezing up and going inactive because I wasn't able to get all the information I wanted. So I started with today. Scorpion's was the most immediately suspect, so I voted. And watching the swings back and forth between Vulture and Scorpion, I'm seeing a much more contested lynch than we've had for a number of cycles. It seems that the Eliminators have generally been content to go along with village lynches - this is the first one since before Meerkat (or maybe even earlier? I could be remembering wrong) that's had a contested target going this late into the day. I think the most likely explanation is that one of them is an Elim. Specifically, I'm looking at the Mouse train and seeing something that looks an awful like Elims trying to save either Scorpion or Vulture. I've got a pretty strong village read on Vulture, so I'm more than comfortable leaving my vote where it is. I'm open to lynching Ostrich, though - their vote on Mouse sounds like a bandwagon (I've got a pretty strong village read on you too, Kas) jump to save a teammate who's up for the lynch.
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@Mint Heron Since you seem to understand what's going on with Falcon, do you mind explaining it for the rest of us? I'm more than halfway ready to vote on them
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OK - so I might as well just give up my attempts at a comprehensive reread. I have too many responsibilities to really focus on it. The failures of my earlier attempts should teach me well enough. But that shouldn't keep me from participating in the thread in other ways. I have managed to do a quick overview of Vulture, and I'm not seeing them as evil. The overall tone of their posts is helpful (I know, a good Eliminator can fake that sort of thing), but they do look like they are actually trying to solve the game. And I can't detect any sort of extra information - the sort an Eliminator team would have. So I'm convinced Vulture is a villager. And so I'm going to argue strongly against a lynch on those grounds. @Mint Heron - Love the philosophy!Heron. And I think that the reasoning given for the vote on Vulture just doesn't stand up. I've also done some more in-depth reads (limited by where I was when I realized that if I waited until I was finished reading and analyzing this, the day would be long over before I participated). So I have some questions that might bear looking into. @Ivory Dragonfly - In my perusal of the thread, I noticed something that jogged my memory. You expressed suspicion on Ostrich - rather strong suspicion, actually - a while back. That hasn't been followed up on for a while. Is there anything Ostrich has said or done that has ameliorated that suspicion? (Also known as - have I missed anything in the thread that explains why you haven't pushed further there?) @Sunburst Toucan - You were pushing very hard for Albatross earlier in the game. Was that a suspicion of convenience that you've dropped once you no longer needed it? Frankly, I'm having worries about Toucan, but Scorpion is also reading Elim to me too. A vote trying to convince people that you aren't an Eliminator at this late stage of the game sounds more like a flimsy justification for an Elim trying to get a last, needed lynch before suspicion coalesces around them. One of my suspicions is voting on another of them. I don't like that situation, because it makes it harder to tell which way to break. At the moment, I'm leaning Scorpion, because the reasoning on that Vulture vote is just awful. If Scorpion is Elim, then Toucan is likely not. I'm going to go over Toucan later - maybe tomorrow, and see what I can see. Vote Count: Vulture: (2)Scorpion, Ivory Scorpion: (4) Mouse, Toucan, Vulture, Elephant Mouse: (1) Heron Toucan: (1) Pearl Chameleon
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Ok - I'm going to actually follow through on a commitment to be more active this cycle. I know I've said it before, but this time it's actually going to happen. It'll take some time for me to analyze the kill. While I go through to see what Onyx's reads were and who they interacted with, I'll also be watching for larger patterns. I'll also try to put together some thoughts on role meta-analysis. There are 15 players left, which is a much more manageable group for me to wrap my mind around. Hopefully I can get some useful patterns together.
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Gah! Hit post before I was finished! Anyways, here are my thoughts on the Weasel lynch: The first lynch was largely driven by Ivory - who's kind of in a village mayor position at the moment. The second lynch was kind of the path of least resistance - everyone just followed because they wanted to know Weasel's alignment for sure? I think that's what I picked up from the Day thread. Anyways, Ivory's response certainly has a village tone to it. Onyx is setting up relationships which sound accurate to me. Axolotl seems shocked (but their reaction sounds like it could easily be an Elim trying to sound village) that their prediction system got things so wrong. I'd like to hear a little more about how the system works, but I'm not so confident in it at the moment. Mint Heron is doing a good job of panicking us. But, it's important information we really kind of have to consider. Otherwise, we could run into the endgame without realizing it, and a single wasted lynch is a dangerous possibility. I'm going to hope that there are only 5 Elims, but we'd better plan as if there are 6.
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I'm back, everyone! Sorry I missed the day yesterday. Apparently I have more activity struggles than I expected. Got so caught up in other things, and then I didn't want to post without finishing my read-throughs and then those started being more and more intimidating. Anyways, I'll do my best to get back on track. Anyways, first off: This is an AG, which traditionally had no secret roles. Everything has been up-front and in the rules. Given that the major conceit of this game is the anonymous accounts, I doubt that Orlok would incorporate secret roles also. Of course, role distributions have also traditionally been on the far side of troll-ish for AGs, so we ought to consider that while we're at it. So, Weasel wasn't a villager. Crap. We wasted a full day on that (the first day wasn't really wasted, because there was actual discussion).
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My apologies. I got called away halfway through my targeted reread on Weasel, fell asleep, got woken up in time for date night with my wife, and am now trying to put my son to bed. I have church tomorrow morning and family things after. It is highly unlikely that I will finish my targeted reread and be able to process everything before rollover. If I live, I will make good on my promise. Also, I've decided that Elsecallers are annoying. The waste of a day lynching one seriously detracts from discussion we desperately need to find the Elims.
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Oh - there's only 45 minutes left in the cycle. I thought I had more time. I don't think I'll finish my Weasel read-through before rollover. I was rather suspicious of Scorpion based on the reread, but Plum's point about an Elim being highly unlikely to vote on a trusted player like Ivory is well-taken. That defuses my suspicions of the Scorpion for the moment. I wish I had chosen to do the reread on Weasel first, because then I could contribute meaningfully to the lynch discussion instead of bandwagoning or something. (When I started my reread, Scorpion was in the lead...I just get distracted easily so it took a while) I'll still do the reread on Weasel, but like I said, I don't think it will be done before the cycle is over.
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Alright - starting my targeted reread now, focusing on Scorpion. I'll do Weasel next, followed by Toucan and maybe Ostrich. Whatever I don't get done by rollover, I'll post during the night, just so that it will be out there for everyone to look at if I die over the night. Scorpion on D1 is very noncommittal, and has a weird fixation on random lynches. Not a fan, frankly. Interestingly enough, Ostrich 1.0 follows onto that, advocating for a random D1 lynch. Already, I've got bad feelings about both of them, but nothing substantial. Not much concrete contribution to the thread D1. A fair amount of conversation, but not a lot of contribution. Could be an Elim trying to look helpful, could be a villager just trying to participate D1 so they don't get lynched. No participation N1. On D2, they try to start a lynch train on Weasel. So it's probably the case that Scorpion and Weasel aren't both Elims. (Unless it was an attempt at distancing, but the accusation seems serious, and looks like the sort of thing that could easily have ballooned into a bandwagon.) If Scorpion flips Elim, then Weasel probably is village, and vice versa. No further participation for the whole day or the following night. A few non-contributing posts D3, followed by jumping on the Tuatara bandwagon without reasoning. Gets challenged by Albatross for not providing detailed analysis, and responds by saying they aren't obligated to do so - followed by an explanation about finding the anonymous accounts disorienting. Fair enough, and no patterns yet. Could be an Elim (Elims can be disoriented too!) trying to participate enough to avoid a policy lynch. Or it could be a villager trying to stay in the game even when they are confused instead of dropping out. Small post responding to the fallout from the Tuatara lynch, and no further contributions. On D4, they again defend their vote on Tuatara by saying they would rather be wrong but participating than fall out of activity. Then votes on Crocodile because it stood out to them. Defends their vote again by saying it sounds like Croc's post was planned in a committee. N4, they call out the Meerkat bandwagon as "crazy." And that's the end of their participation.
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Ok - this is a blessing, we've got a round of PMs back. Our Skybreaker should have 4 scans now, and should be able to form a trust group. Here's hoping that most of those scans are still alive, and that at least one is an Elim. I want to be more active than I have hitherto been, and so I'm going to start doing larger analysis posts on each of the lynch targets throughout the day (hopefully at least twice). However, I lack the time to do so at the moment. So, until I get to the place where I can do that later today, I'll share my current (brief!) thoughts on Weasel and Albatross, without going through and doing a targeted reread. Weasel is feeling off to me for some reason. I'd probably be ok with lynching them today (but I don't want to commit until after I've done my targeted reread). The list of their posts above has me leaning Elim on them, and the reluctance to talk during night turns is annoying. Albatross, on the other hand, is a far more interesting situation. Penguin accused them yesterday, and was killed last night. On the one hand, there we go. Means, motive, and opportunity. As Mint Heron notes above, the village doesn't do nearly as much analysis on Elim kills as we used to (although I intend to change that today!) On the other, though... Albatross has been widely acknowledged as the most likely of the early-game trust group to be an Elim (if there are any). They've accrued enough suspicion that they could have gotten lynched yesterday, at least before the lynchtrain coalesced around Meerkat. If the Elims wanted to short-circuit discussion and push an easy mislynch, Albatross would be a decent target to try and do so, and killing Penguin would push Albatross to the forefront of lynch candidates (as we see has happened). From that perspective, I'm quite happy that we're still discussing a wide variety of targets for the lynch. I worry about lynching Albatross (but they would most likely be a good candidate for the Skybreaker to scan tonight - if you set up a code in-thread with your trust group, you can communicate your results without revealing yourself) because at this point I'm more than halfway convinced that it's a red herring, that the Elims are placing kills deliberately to push us in one direction or another. Anyways, there's my initial thoughts without a targeted reread. Before the end of the cycle, I intend to do a targeted reread focusing on Weasel, Ostrich, and Albatross. I reserve the right to change my position, up to and including doing a complete 180, based on the results of that reread.
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Ok - @Plum Rhinoceros, your massive post was certainly not an example of the problem I was addressing. And I didn't mean to imply that everyone on the Meerkat vote was just bandwagoning. But I had a big issue with what felt like half of the active or semiactive players jumping on a lynch because "so many people's guts can't be wrong." Well, apparently they could. And, of course, after I read through later posts I ended up jumping on the wagon myself, so maybe I could take some of my own advice.
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Oh goodness gracious. So...this is the part where it looks like (based on timestamps) I got ninjaed by a post that would have changed things significantly. This post is certainly highly suspicious. I still don't like the bandwagon and the whole "my gut says...and their gut says...we can't all be wrong, can we?" But this post is scummy. No two ways about it. Meerkat
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Alright - I'm back. First, my comments on the Meerkat lynch. This is awfully late in the game to be lynching someone just off of "gut feeling," no matter how many players share it. It's D4, everyone! There should be something substantial to justify a vote! This game of bandwagoning on someone because "everyone" thinks that they are guilty is ridiculous! I don't have strong feelings about Meerkat's innocence, but I do have strong feelings about the justifications everyone is offering about the lynch. If there isn't anything substantial, then maybe we ought to find a better target? I don't have time to go through everything on Meerkat like I am with Mauve (I chose to start with Mauve because Meerkat is going to get lynched at the moment, and having analysis out on the alternate lynch target might be valuable), so there might be actual justifications for the lynch that aren't just bandwagoning on someone else's gut feelings. If there's still time after I'm done with this post, I'll go back and see what I can find. Back to analyzing Mauve. D1 they didn't say much (but I'm in the same boat there, I think - so again, something that's not necessarily alignment indicative on its own, but could be part of a larger pattern) other than voting on Dingo. D2 they follow the same pattern - mostly lurking while only contributing a few posts of dubious value. But N2 they really step up to the plate and start posting useful things to the village. The analysis on the Swan lynch was useful - and probably contributed to the Dustbringer kill on Opal (which was useful because it saved us from wasting the next day on an Opal lynch - I'd have likely pushed to lynch Opal the next day otherwise). D3 they are back to lurking N3 - they are mostly AWOL, but most of us were, again. All things considered, they feel like they are trying to be helpful, but their posts are mostly short and not particularly useful. I'm not getting a suspicious vibe off of them at all, but I'm not feeling strongly village about them. Now to see what everyone else who's posted while I've been writing this said.
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Mauve Crocodile: (3) - Salmon Meerkat, Pearl Chameleon, Amethyst Scorpion Salmon Meerkat: (6) - Onyx Flamingo, Plum Rhinoceros, Chartreuse Penguin, Ivory Dragonfly, Sunburst Toucan, Mint Heron Our lynch candidates are now down to 2, and it looks like Meerkat is the primary target here. I promised analysis on the two players currently up for the lynch, and I probably ought to throw Onyx Flamingo in there too, since @Sunburst Toucan specifically asked why I trust them. Mauve Crocodile: D1 - was voted on for inactivity, came online confused about how to keep track of players. Voted in the Dingo lynch - reasoning given was that Dingo had posted 6 times without saying anything useful. Had technical issues getting the votes working. That lynch reasoning would normally be awful, but for a D1 lynch it's not out of the realm of reasonability. At least from my perspective. D1 lynches are always tough for me to figure out how to find suspicions without patterns of behavior to go on, and lynching someone for not contributing is a decent place to start. So I'll give Mauve a pass on that for the moment - but if this starts to be a pattern, we might revisit it. D2 - discusses using an RNG to decide on a few players to follow, to keep the content down to a manageable amount N2 - actually starts doing some analysis on the Swan lynch - points out Opal Lion's bandwagoning. Also strongly defends the practice of talking during night turns, instead of just waiting for the next day to come. D3 - comments on PMs being down, asks which kill was Elim and which kill was Dustbringer; points Weasel towards a post by Beagle. Votes Flamingo because they are suspicious of beagle and think that flamingo will give info about beagle while not removing a valuable player if beagle turns out innocent. N3 - apologizes for listing reasoning in a way that gorilla found suspicious - zebra thinks that mauve's vote was rioted by an Elim. Say they are going to post a long analysis post by the end of the night or the early morning. I have to go now, so I'll get back to listing what I think about this in a bit.
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@Sunburst Toucan - thanks for the ping. I've been dealing with sick children for almost 2 days now. I haven't done a very good job at being active like I wanted to be. I want to do an in-depth analysis of all of the lynch candidates before the end of the day.
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Alright, so at almost the midpoint of the cycle, we have our votes distributed between a few players: Mauve Crocodile: (1) - Salmon Meerkat Magenta Albatross: (1) - Chartreuse Penguin Salmon Meerkat: (2) - Onyx Flamingo, Plum Rhinoceros Fuchsia Ostrich: (1) - Ivory Dragonfly At the moment, I'm tempted to vote on Fuchsia Ostrich, but I'm worried that hunting through the semi-actives might be a distraction. I'm not sure about the Salmon Meerkat lynch - they haven't shown up on my radar at all yet. I'll go back and see what their interactions on earlier cycles look like to me.
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Writeup makes it look like a Dustbringer kill to me. @Orlok Tsubodai can you confirm? My first guess is a Worldhopper that drew Dustbringer this cycle. The other option is a Dustbringer who has waited until this cycle to use their power, but I find that unlikely. No idea yet on whether the worldhopper was Elim or Village though.
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*sigh* Sorry I missed most of the day cycle and tonight. I'm at a loss for where to look now. Hopefully things look clearer in the morning.
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@Oxblood Beagle - I'm here. Sorry - got busy with church and took a nap after. I really don't like this bandwagon forming on flamingo. I strongly feel that flamingo is villager. My vote's already on Tuatara, and I'm not inclined to move it. I need to reread the thread - there's a lot I've missed while I was gone. Unfortunately, I have family obligations until late tonight, so I won't be able to be on until either then or tomorrow morning. But if Tuatara flips Elim, we really ought to look closely at those who voted Flamingo.
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I was feeling a Tuatara lynch yesterday - the whole "I'm not going to place a vote unless something big comes up" is at the very least, behavior we don't want to encourage. It might not be an Elim tell, but it is unhelpful play. Consider this - by refusing to vote or participate in the discussion, you are denying the village the opportunity to form reads on you. By refusing to engage, you make it impossible for us to decide whether you are evil or not. I've seen this type of play from both villagers and Elims, though. The retaliation vote on Beagle also piques my suspicions as well. Very well. Tuatara But let's not let it interfere with our discussion. That's an awfully convenient thing to say. If Tuatara flips village, you can say that you told us so. If Tuatara flips Elim, then you can blow it off as a bad gut feeling. Looks like someone who wants to derail the lynch without looking like you're wanting to derail the lynch. I'm going to keep a closer eye on this.
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I was PMed by Beagle right towards the end of the cycle - with about an hour and a half left - asking me to change my vote from Tuatara to Axolotl. Beagle was fairly certain that Onyx Flamingo was village, and thought Axolotl was a better target - at least because of what seemed a poor reason to place a vote. I was amenable to it, because I also felt that Flamingo was probably village. However, before I could post my vote for Axolotl, Axolotl posted their response. I just couldn't lynch them after that. Couldn't bring myself to do it, even to save someone that I was pretty sure was a villager. I've been pretty sold on Beagle's villageyness since D1, when they PMed me asking me to post more. So when Beagle suggested a Swan alternate lynch, I was so caught up in the moment of trying to save Onyx and deciding to stop the train on Axolotl, that I didn't even think through the ramifications. I found the suspicions Beagle brought up to be compelling. So I voted. For what it's worth, I still think that Beagle's village. Their reaction to the outcome of the lynch in our PMs reads very village to me.
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@Violet Axolotl, please don't feel like you're not wanted. You're a valuable member of the community, sleep-deprived or not. I'm not a fan of the pile-on on Axolotl - although I was about to join it before the most recent post. I concur with the suspicion on Swan, however. Voting for Flamingo to keep the lynch ahead when you're highest suspicion is someone else feels off.
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At the moment, Flamingo feels like a villager trying to defend themselves. That explanation about their reaction to Dragonfly actually makes sense, although I'd like to see some more analysis on the players they thought were Elims at the start of the cycle. As far as votes go, I'm going to vote for Cream Tuatara. Their explicit refusal to vote unless something big happens isn't helping us at all.
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