Salmon Meerkat

January 10, 2022

Just now, Oxblood Beagle said:

I hate to agree with Meerkat right now, but this is actually accurate. We can all agree an exe on them this turn is best, but we need to use this time to analyze elsewhere, create reads, try to figure out what else is happening.

I promise that I have put on my Best Villager Hat and am only thinking of the Village's best interests right now =)

But seriously, this. C'mon guys, you've played a game where a Seeker outed an Elim before. You know how this goes. You have to discuss and that means applying lethal pressure, not just talking. That means voting. Regardless of my alignment, this has always been Village doctrine, and at heart I have always been a Villager.

In a way, I'm rooting for you. I have my duty but I want the curse broken.

January 10, 2022

2 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

-_-'

What, you know me I hate Tyrian assumptions.

What's worse than waking up at Lylo to discover the Coinshot is actually ~~your bro~~ Evil?

January 10, 2022

2 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Anyway now, you're clearly trying to derail our discussion with not-so important issues and you're doing the "hey you missed this point" and then trying to give out alternate scenarios so I'll be not entertaining those, okay?

What derail your discussion? You can discuss all the things. It's not my problem if you guys are hyperfocusing on this and not looking at: D2, the results from Ocho's flip, and what this tells you about D1 instead of just focusing on me. I'll point out that another option is to lynch someone else and to leave me for the Coinshot kill, though if you think we have a Lurcher, then I agree the lynch is best. Even then, you should be diversifying your reads and applying pressure to other players. What's important is that the votes end up on me in time for rollover.

You have information, so why aren't you using it?

God, why do I have to tell you all this, you're all supposed to have done this before....

5 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Sure, but it's still more likely you'd go for single Ocho kill [for whatever reason] than a double kill because there's no point in wasting 2 kills on someone you theorize elims know is a Thug. Numerical superiority wins the game of elims, so wasting kills on a Thug doesn't make sense.

Point, and that's a fair thought. So we can probably leave out the Thug option. Good to know the Coinshot is likely Village.

January 10, 2022

37 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Other misc things:

Only one Tineye message technically implies 3 Mistborn that all rolled Tin independent of each other N1 which is such a small likelihood that it can't be true (and PMs are open). So from N1 we have Octo (who may or may not have sent that message, we'll see next cycle depending on if we get one in that style again), the Mistborn claim, and two more. One of which is Tineye because PMs are open and the other who is also likely a Tineye because probability but could also be Mistborn.

I said 'other misc things' but I meant 'other misc thing', apparently.

Praise the Ja!

You're also missing one possibility here. Spiked Tineye who put in the NK. Messages aren't very useful for the Spiked and while Villagers don't often recall this, and thus it improves my read of you, Spiked have to forgo their metal action (if they have one) if they put in the Night Kill.

I guess I could see a Tineye also choosing not to put in a message or forgetting. A number of people tend to find Tineye messages useless.

I think you can show them this game for posterity :|

January 10, 2022

7 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

stop

if you thought ocho was a thug you'd avoid hitting them + they just survived an elimination, there'd be chance they'd be up for it again, so no the second kill wasn't from your end

This logic doesn't explain why we'd waste the first kill on Ocho either. Why kill Ocho when there's a good chance the Village could be talked into making another pass for Ocho? To be sure, there was a distinct chance of a Gorilla lynch but you either evaluate that Ocho is likely to face threat again or you evaluate that Ocho is not. If Ocho is likely to face threat again, then Ocho not a good target for a single or double kill because you are wasting your kill and helping the Village narrow PoE. (Which of course is why Gorilla is still alive - either that or Gorilla is Evil.)

I haven't decided why Ocho got hit by the Elim kill. It seems counterproductive.

Edit:

7 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

You know, that’s not a bad point. Why didn’t I think of that?

You're welcome =)

January 10, 2022

6 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Ooo good catch. Confirms my assumption anyway (hi hyena ) but it is nice to know.

I feel like this misses the possibility that the Elims think/thought that Ocho was a Thug and wanted to be sure.

Just saying =)

January 10, 2022

5 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Okay see the Octopus is a weird option for both the elims and the Coinshot because - elims just proved the last cycle vote was v/v between Iguana and Octopus and... why would Coinshot even choose Octopus [for that record I'm looking at all voters of Octopus last cycle because from my perspective there was nothing incriminating about them].

Feel good about Salmon Meerkat more so because it is supported by the fact that the Octopus push was weird before backing off.

I approve of this. You have just lost five Villagers in a Tyrian game. Tick-tock, tick-tock. Wouldn't want to fall to the curse, would we?

I'm in a generous mood today so I'll probably help with some D2 analysis if I have the time =)

January 10, 2022

11 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Lol it is just openwolfing ok

i would prefer it had not come to this, no kidding

11 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

In which case ignore the fact that my explanation of me thinking he was evil looks like an Elim trying to get credit, and instead look at it like a Villager finally being right about Meerkat being evil :P.

ohohoh

Emerald Falcon

swan im not voting 4 u out of respect even though this was a massive self-pwn

January 10, 2022

1 minute ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Their overfixation on identities this game hasn't ever sat right with me, and specifically them seeming to trust me without actually ever trusting me. That among things I've mentioned throughout to some people.

Get back in the doc, Miss 'I Think Swan is Shhshhshshh or Shshsh'

January 10, 2022

Just now, Magenta Albatross said:

Didn't Meerkat just, like, confess?

:|

this is not one of my better games

pls be understanding gaiz

i just

ide

January 10, 2022

Just now, Oxblood Beagle said:

Well, that's... odd. Seems the coinshot and elims hit Octopus??

@Salmon Meerkat, care to explain?

I don't really know there's much explanation to be had, I'll be honest :|

I sort of derped, and I could blame lack of sleep, and there's a reason I tell people certain things and certain situations are....sigh. I would like to forget this fiasco but. Like.

January 10, 2022

..........oh damn i had a bad feeling about this

ggwp swan ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

January 9, 2022

Just now, Turquoise Gorilla said:

To give you a hint: There is one word that I used sometime in the thread that is very distinctive of me and me alone (at least, I think).

Even if it helped me ID which of the two you are, I only am roughly familiar with the Elim meta of one of the two, so if this ends up telling me you are the other player, it's not helping me read you, unfortunately So this becomes a paper exercise. But thank you.

January 9, 2022

A Brief Digression Because Insomnia:

I'm going to put here my list of player ID guesses without mentioning who I think they are. I haven't been going out of my way to ID players but some are very obvious and some are less so. The point for me doing this is because I've been leaning on player ID sometimes as a baseline when assessing a player's behaviour and it feels...odd, I suppose, to expect people to just accept on faith that I am basing thoughts of the player's alignment partially on my read of the player. As a result, I've put together a table on my player ID guesses, indicating the degree of certainty/strength and listing in general terms the evidential basis for this assessment that I am drawing on.

For instance, I believe my Falcon and Vulture guesses to be very robust and so will not hesitate to use them in analysis. I am reassessing my Cham guess though it is currently at 0.9 certitude. My Alb guess however is at 0.1 certitude as it's just based on a hunch, so I will not be factoring that into analysis of a player. As a rule of thumb, I hesitate to draw on any ID guess that is not at least MODERATELY HIGH in credence.

tldr; read this more as a "This is where I'm coming from, and I am attempting to show my working so the limitations of my use of these guesses in facilitating a read of a player are more apparent."

Spoiler

Player	Certainty	Evidential Basis
Salmon Meerkat	VERY HIGH = 1	-Very obviously Kel -hello there general kelnobi u r a bold one -Unclear why keep on getting mistaken for another SE player -Salmon Meerkel not Salmon Meerkas
Amber Vulture	VERY HIGH = 0.95	-Linguistic behaviour a close match for player -Demonstrates historical knowledge in personal interactions that specific player would -Tabular closereads distinctive and time-consuming style – assess unlikely that another player would put in effort to impersonate; better targets elsewhere -Behaviour consistent with previous interactions both onshard & offshard – if Vulture isn’t who I think he is, then the player is coaching him.
Charcoal Hyena	VERY HIGH = 0.95	-Isolated analysis distinctive and time-consuming playstyle – assess unlikely that another player would put in effort to impersonate; better targets elsewhere -Distinctive use of player’s signature RP tag
Fuchsia Ostrich	VERY HIGH = 0.95	-Engages in behaviour that is uniquely identifying for a single player -Demonstrates historical knowledge in personal interactions that is uniquely identifying
Pearl Chameleon	VERY HIGH = 0.9 [REASSESS]	-Linguistic behaviour a decent match for player -Demonstrates historical knowledge in personal interactions that specific player would -Chronology a close match for player’s distinctive timeslice – assess unlikely that another player would know to duplicate this -Weakly corroborated by thread behaviour and thread reaction to player -Moderately corroborated by previous onshard & offshard interactions -Displays strong familiarity with the player I’m impersonating
Oxblood Beagle	VERY HIGH = 0.9	-Demonstrates historical knowledge in personal interactions that specific player would -Linguistic behaviour within acceptable parameters -Timezone behaviour not uniquely identifying but strongly suggestive -One particular tic strongly suggestive of player and potentially uniquely identifying
Emerald Falcon	VERY HIGH = 0.9	-Linguistic behaviour fairly distinctive and extensively matches player’s known baseline -Distinctive playstyle and ISO MO is not very common in playerbase and coupled with linguistic behaviour, should be considered uniquely identifying. -Strongly corroborated by historical knowledge in personal interactions -Displays strong familiarity with the player I’m impersonating -Ostensibly inhabits my timezone which implies distinctive sleep patterns of that player.
Chartreuse Penguin	MODERATELY HIGH = 0.8	-Linguistic behaviour within acceptable parameters for player but not strongly indicative -Displays historical knowledge and emotional reactions that the player in question would in interactions -While timezone is not uniquely identifying, it is very rare to find another player who occupies that particular timezone and Penguin’s in-game behaviour better maps onto the player I have in mind than the alternatives.
Mauve Crocodile	MODERATELY HIGH = 0.75	-Conversational behaviour fairly distinctive – potential match to approx 3 players I can think of off the top of my head but most closely matches 1 of them. -Behavioural love of gambling and train negotiation also hallmarks of the playstyle of one particular player. -Tbh this one doesn’t matter as he’s dead now but I threw it in for completeness’ sake
Coral Swan	MODERATE = 0.55	-Partial linguistic match for player; not uniquely identifying -Timezone match for player. Not uniquely identifying but strongly suggestive. -Suggestion of match for player in terms of historical knowledge in interactions
Amethyst Scorpion	MODERATE = 0.55	-Partial match for linguistic/analytical behaviour of player. -Decent match for player in terms of historical knowledge in interactions but this could be easily duplicated by another player with the same chronology. -Some discrepancies with player’s voice and playstyle results in only medium confidence in the player’s identity – do not feel confident in basing analysis off this read. -If player is who I think it is, player is fiendishly difficult to detect when Evil so it is better to bracket player identity when analysing player behaviour for Scorp. -Partial match for player timezone – within known parameters but does not display uniquely identifying behaviour of player’s known timezone so cannot be taken to be strongly indicative.
Turquoise Gorilla	LOW = 0.5	-Chronology matches two players: not uniquely identifying -Voice and speech-patterns has some overlap with two players: therefore also not uniquely identifying. -Reassess
Violet Axlotl	LOW = 0.3	-Attitude overlap with player -Weak linguistic overlap but also enough differences to seem an unwarranted inference -Gut
Magenta Albatross	LOW = 0.1	-Hunch

January 9, 2022

urgh gonna do sme rp & gt rest & painkillers

nd 2 work & class 2morrow sorry gaiz so activity will drp bt i will be active jst less so

weekend was my really good time 2 se

whch is y i was trying 2 push harder

@Amethyst Scorpion- i think wht im struggling w/ understnding is tt axl & u & other vs im too tired 2 recall hve tld me tt elim teams these days like to wait for a late pt to oppose a train

so my qn is: hw ds every1 tell me abt Sart bg elim-bussed in lg82 & tell me tts a common strat these days & tell me elims wait until l8 hoping 4 v appetite 2 die & nt expect late movement 2 look like the start of the counterpush?

i dt thk the issue is about whtr 10 hours v 1 hr - my pt is if u r arguing elims now wt for counterpush v v late, then y shld i give credence 2 a counterpush tt is being originated in last hr of cycle?

i will see if i cn do pathwalking based off d2 & our updated d1 info bt probably not now im tired & still in pain

§

he remembered

as the lord, as Loenthal took his secretary away the secretary who had sought to kill Riggs, Riggs the obligator who had offered bets and tried to winnow away Kellehrt’s secrets with that knife-edged smile and tattoo-slashed eyes and Kellehrt could still only see

Riggs, dead, mob violence, of course, as though it had not come from one of them or several of them, as though the same dark seed that grew in his father’s heart and had grown into a bloody harvest

that day at the village square he had not been there he had been in Luthadel but he imagined he had been there and not in the cramped confines of his shop making, as ways, nails and doing his utmost even though it was only a mote of dust in the light to keep the world together at the joints nail after nail after nail hammer tapping groove into metal

as his father’s axe hewed stroke after stroke into the villagers of Tyrian Falls and sometimes Kellehrt feared it was a dark madness, a terrible inheritance that lay sleeping in himself no matter how much he inspected himself for temper or anger or ill-will towards his fellow villagers he could not be certain

nothing of his father was in him

when he owed everything to his father and to his mother and those long hours in the village forge learning the ways of metal tapping grooves into nails for carpentry and horseshoes and lord Loenthal’s household and ploughshares and sickles and hammers and tools and the things that made and held the world together

like the chain of sons and daughters down from generations of smiths in Tyrian Falls and sometimes working late in his father’s forge wiping the sweat from his skin in the dull heat of the furnace spreading through the air pressure on his skin he felt the weight of the generations and the expectations

that Kellehrt son of Athan would be the blacksmith in Tyrian Falls like Athan son of Farkas and Farkas son of Tarvin and so on and so on and so on in an unbroken lineage of flame and steel and sweat and nails, always nails, the village ran on nails and Dyring depended on them there was always some part of the inn that needed repairing or bands for casks or latches or firegrates or pokers or horsehoes, there was always work for a blacksmith in Tyrian Falls

but Kellehrt had left, had gone to Luthadel

where he met Wark in the forge there and everything started to happen one after another and maybe he was thinking of this now because Loenthal had taken Henry away to protect him

but you couldn’t protect anyway, you never saved anyone

salvation was always temporary

and this wasn’t Warmmha’s voice and Kellehrt didn’t know who was whispering perhaps it was his own bleak despair he’d taken her in and hid her from the mob screaming that she was a collaborator cuts on her stubbled scalp from where they’d dragged the knife roughly across skin and locks both as though

all dignity had to be surrendered

i didn’t do it, she said

you can’t let them do this, and he didn’t know if that was Warmmha speaking or maybe it was her, the voices blended together after a while in memory but he remembered Warmmha with clarity

gazing into a glory of sapphire

light, always light

Warmmha, saying, you can’t let them do this, someone has to stop them from hurting her from tearing the world apart the way his father cleaved a scarlet swathe drying dull cracked brown through the village square that day he imagined the sky must have been a leaden grey the way it always was an otherwise unremarkable day if his father hadn’t done it, hadn’t

they always say they didn’t do it, says Wark, flicking ash away from his shirt, really Kel you should know better by now

and maybe he did, but

he saved her anyway because someone had to, or maybe because he wanted to prove to himself that there was something good in the world, that some shred of decency was left, and how sad was it if you were looking to another for proof that the world was still beautiful

she left having stolen emptied out the contents of the forge safe

you fool, Wark said, shaking his head slowly

he found her floating in the canal the day after the boxings already stolen and felt grief like a sharp splinter through every fibre of his being every nerve every muscle

it wasn’t love but it was a patient kindness that he felt that day

that gazed upon both worm and grass both woman and boy and said

you are beautiful and you are enough and your existence matters even in the eyes of God, in the gaze of the universe

he saved her anyway, or he thought he’d saved her, but salvation was only ever always temporary

did you presume, did you dare presume to know the way the future was woven into warp and weft of the present silken threads twining here and parting there

futile to try but he had to, for the sake of the grass and the worm and the red sun hanging sullenly in the sky and for the tears and the hatred and the way she’d stumbled into his forge terrified and he couldn’t stand there and do nothing sometimes you had to try to salvage the tapestry

you can’t save everybody, says Wark, and it’s not your job to try

January 9, 2022

17 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

It means little if you and Iguana are both village, but if one of you is evil I would not bet on it being the one who got a whole bunch of new voters today while votes on the other never got off the ground.

Except that there's a lot of resistance now, isn't there?

Funny what you all told me isn't it? How many people kept telling me I can't use the unopposed reasoning to exonerate Cham because of LG82 and new meta?

Why does it feel like it is being conveniently dropped here at the eleventh hour when Ig is endangered?

Which is it?

January 9, 2022

i shouldn't be here

but

Iguana

57 minutes ago, Turquoise Gorilla said:

^should be in C

ty

Gorilla doesn't seem to be in Elim meta. & I am not committed to D1 V/V/V.

This is the best I can do.

January 9, 2022

I’m prefacing this post with the acknowledgement this serves as a break in my usual playstyle. Previous breaks have been isolated to sickness or distraction – it turns out that being in class doesn’t really facilitate awareness of keeping my typing style the way it was and I was too tired to bother going back to fix it to be consistent.

I don’t think it’s worth tanking the drop in clarity to do this in my usual playstyle so I will put in the effort of cleaning up the post. Any resemblances to the distinctive posting style of a particular SE player are purely intentional I assure you.

I. D1: The Original Trilogy

Spoiler

We ended the cycle with the expected vote count of:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (4): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2>
Pearl Chameleon (0): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, ~~Amethyst Scorpion<1>~~
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, ~~Onyx Flamingo<1>~~, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>~~, ~~Turquoise Gorilla<1>~~
Scarlet Octopus (0): ~~Amber Vulture~~
Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2>
Magenta Albatross (0): ~~Saffron Iguana<1>~~

Absent: Quartz Zebra, Azure Mouse, Amber Vulture, Ivory Dragonfly, Melon Dingo, Opal Lion, Plum Rhinoceros, Sunburst Toucan

And we get the actual vote count of:

Quote

Mauve Crocodile (4): Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana
Saffron Iguana (3): Magenta Albatross, Mauve Crocodile, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Violet Axolotl
Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle
Violet Axolotl (1): Mint Heron

Discrepancies being the missing vote on Iguana and the missing vote on Gorilla, net result Mauve Crocodile is lynched.

To pathwalk: we have three possibilities. We know they can't be E/E/E due to Mauve's Village flip. So the results have to be V/V/V, V/V/E, or V/E/E.

A. V/V/V

Spoiler

I want to handle this first because it's logically possible, but it doesn't really feel right to me. I don't disagree that there's a lot of self-pres right before rollover, and so to some extent, that's NAI, but the vote manip and the pre-rollover chaos just makes me feel there's more than just Villager scrambling.

On this view, where would our Elims be?

Quote

Saffron Iguana (4): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2>
Pearl Chameleon (0): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, ~~Amethyst Scorpion<1>~~
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, ~~Onyx Flamingo<1>~~, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axolotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>~~, ~~Turquoise Gorilla<1>~~
Scarlet Octopus (0): ~~Amber Vulture~~
Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2>
Magenta Albatross (0): ~~Saffron Iguana<1>~~

I don't expect them to be late movers on the main trains. As a late voter in a three-way the Elims have no reason to care about, Amethyst Scorp comes out looking good on this picture, and ex hypothesi, we have stipulated that Gorilla and Iguana must be Village. The vote manip is either Village-directed, or meant to sow chaos from the Elims. If we speculate that at least one of the vote manips was a Riot, then we can anticipate at least one Elim on the Croc-Gorilla-Iguana trains. I think up to three is a reasonable number. Clearly, they wouldn't want to be all-in, so we should look at side-trains as well.

Here's one reasonable rule of thumb. Our lead trains were Cham, Iguana, Gorilla, and Croc, at various points through the cycle. In particular, if we think it is V/V/V, then the very late voters have to more or less be by and large Village - Elims have little reason to get invested in which of the trains dominate.

Melon Dingo's apathy doesn't look too good either, being around at the end of the cycle but declining to get involved. This could be explained by knowledge this was a V/V/V train, with

Flamingo swapping from Axl to Mauve actually looks good in this scenario - if only because Flamingo could likely have stayed safely parked on Axl:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (2): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>
Pearl Chameleon (1): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, Amethyst Scorpion
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axolotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, ~~Onyx Flamingo<1>~~, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>~~, Turquoise Gorilla
Scarlet Octopus (0): ~~Amber Vulture~~
Mauve Crocodile (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>

Flamingo swaps off Axl to Mauve, tying the Crocodile train with the Gorilla train. This comes off as saving Gorilla - but in this scenario, Gorilla is Village. There's no reason for an Elim to get involved in progressing these trains as rollover nears.

Another possible place for Elims to be is in the non-voter pool: <Quartz Zebra, Azure Mouse, Amber Vulture, Ivory Dragonfly, Melon Dingo, Opal Lion, Plum Rhinoceros, Sunburst Toucan>. Of these, Ivory mentioned RL, Plum Rhino and Sunburst are inactive, and Opal flipped Village.

But I don't want to dwell overly on this as I don't think this is a likely possibility at this juncture. If someone takes it more seriously, then I guess this is a starting point.

B. V/E/E

Spoiler

This in my view is also an outside possibility, though I would judge it as the most unlikely due to the potential for something to go wrong. This requires that the Elim team have at least one vote manip (likely a Rioter or a Mistborn who drew Zinc) though two Soothers is a possibility (remember, we had a three Soother set-up before.)

It's not impossible, but it requires an Elim team with strong risk tolerance, an appetite for extreme distancing (the wheels on the bus go round and round...) and nerves of steel, and - as mentioned - vote manipulation, and potentially some luck.

Lion, Are You Tripping?

Spoiler

Let's see.

Quote

Saffron Iguana (4): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2>
Pearl Chameleon (0): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, ~~Amethyst Scorpion<1>~~
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, ~~Onyx Flamingo<1>~~, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>~~, ~~Turquoise Gorilla<1>~~
Scarlet Octopus (0): ~~Amber Vulture~~
Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2>
Magenta Albatross (0): ~~Saffron Iguana<1>~~

MAIN SUPPOSITION: Gorilla-Iguana E/E

What would it take for this to be true?

We know the final result was Croc 4 : Gorilla 3 : Iguana 3. For the sake of simplicity, we're not going to postulate inert vote manipulation reactions as though they're quasiparticles.

Option A: They had two Soothers. The Soother was able to react at the last minute and Soothe the vote on Gorilla, or they simply expected to do so anyway just in case.

Option B: They had one Rioter. The Rioter would've had to target Iguana, shifting a vote from Iguana to Crocodile. But that seems a bit kayana because surely people would go for Iguana next for being saved by a Rioter?

We have no other disappearing votes, so if we claim that there is a Rioter, then the Rioter must be on the Croc or Gorilla trains.

If we exclude Scorp, this is the score they are looking at prior to vote manip:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (4): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2>

Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>

Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2>

B1: Rioter on Gorilla train

I think it's reasonable for the Evil Rioter to move the vote from the other train, because if two votes disappear from the same train, that's more sus and also might too obvious which train the Rioter is on. We are assuming only one E!Rioter so they would have expected a final result of:

Croc 4 + 1 (from Elim Riot) = 5 : Ig 4 - 1 (vote moved) = 3 : Gorilla 3 - 1 (Rioter's vote nullified) = 2

If they move from Gorilla as well:

Croc 4 + 1 (from Elim Riot) = 5 : Ig 4 : Gorilla 3 - 2 (Rioter, vote moved) = 1

Too obvious, and Ig could be endangered if there's vote manip. So this is not viable.

After Scorp shifted, they were probably fine with it - still expected 5:3:3.

B1-Alpha:

For this to work, we'd need something like a Soother acting on the Croc train. This Soother would've been Village and probably wanted to save Croc and was okay with Ig or Gorilla dying.

Croc 4 + 1 (from Elim Riot) -1 (from Soother) = 4 : Ig 4 - 1 (vote moved) = 3: Gorilla 4 - 1 (Rioter's vote nullified) = 3

B1-Beta:

Other option is a Rioter on the Croc train I think. The moment it's Croc train, the only way I can see to account for the 4 : 3 : 3 is that Croc Rioter cancels out the +1 from the Elim Rioter, and the Elim Riot is successful. So they must have targeted the Elim Rioter's vote, which should have been nullified.

So:

Croc 4 + 1 (from Elim Riot) - 1 (Rioter's vote nullified) = 4 : Ig 4 - 1 (vote moved) = 3 : Gorilla 4 - 1 (Rioter's vote nullified) = 3

I don't think any other option works because we have additional floating votes that require more Soother/vote manip to solve which we are disqualifying.

B1-Gamma:

Other Rioter on Gorilla train. If so:

Croc 4 + 1 (from Elim Riot) - 1 (vote moved) = 4 : Ig 4 - 1 (vote moved) = 3 : Gorilla 4 - 2 (Rioter's vote nullified) + 1 (vote moved) = 3

For this to work, I think the only way is to postulate net zero shift on Croc. So the Rioter has to have moved a vote from Croc.

B1-Delta:

Other Rioter on Ig train

Croc 4 + 1 (from Elim Riot) - 1 (vote moved) = 4 : Ig 4 - 1 (vote nullified) -1 (vote moved) +1 (vote moved) = 3 : Gorilla 4 - 1 (Rioter's vote nullified) = 3

We need net zero on Croc, meaning a vote must be moved off Croc. If Rioter is on the Ig train and we're supposing the Elim must Riot off Ig, then we always have a default -2 on Ig. So the V!Rioter must have moved a vote off Croc to Ig. From their perspective, they must've thought themselves clever - it'd look like a Soothed vote on Croc.

B2: Rioter on Iguana train

From their perspective:

Croc 4 + 1 (from Elim Riot) = 5 : Ig 4 - 1 (Rioter's vote nullified) = 3 : Gorilla 3 - 1 (vote moved) = 2

Same deal as the Iguana train. I don't think the analysis changes significantly in this scenario - you reverse the trains speculated. So I'm not going to fully walk this branch.

Let's look briefly at the options to see if they make sense.

Alpha - V!Soother acts on Croc train. That's logical: maybe you want to save Croc, and you're okay with the Iguana-Gorilla tie. If order came in before Scorp, then you're looking at 4 : 4 : 3, and you expect your action to turn it into 3 : 4 : 3, killing Iguana.

Beta - V!Rioter on Croc train. You must target someone on the Gorilla train (who happens to be the Rioter.) That could be moderately logical - you might think Gorilla is V, and so perform a net Soothe - you intend to pull their vote to Croc, which also disguises the fact you Rioted. You just targeted the wrong person. If order came in before Scorp, then you're looking at 4 : 4 : 3, and you expect your action to turn it into 4 : 4 : 2 - Ig/Croc tie. Not very logical I think. Less likely. But maybe you want to save Gorilla more. Because it's still a 4 : 4 lead tie so you should be indifferent otherwise.

Gamma - V!Rioter on same Gorilla train. This reads the same as the Croc train case. You nullify your vote but you pull a vote off Croc and onto Gorilla. If order came in before Scorp, then you're looking at 4 : 4 : 3, and you expect your action to turn it into 3 : 4 : 4 - Ig/Gorilla tie. Seems consistent.

Delta - V!Rioter on Iguana train. This also reads the same - net Soothe on Croc. You nullify your vote but you pull a vote off Croc and onto Iguana. If order came in before Scorp, then you're looking at 4 : 4 : 3, and you expect your action to turn it into 3 : 4 : 3 - Ig dies. Seems consistent.

The only logical option for a Village vote manip is essentially you Soothe a vote off someone to try to narrow the tie or remove that player from the tie.

There's no real contradiction but it's so fiddly. Being fiddly doesn't make a scenario wrong or impossible - in a game with multiple vote manip roles, shenanigans can happen. But that's a lot of moving parts for Elims to rely on for the sake of distancing, so I don't know. It doesn't feel quite right to me at this juncture.

Implications:

Minimally, potential Elim Rioter or Mistborn on the Iguana and Gorilla trains (more Rioter possibilities than two Soother possibilities and I judge that Soothing doesn't offer sufficient vote control for an Elim team to be so comfortable with extreme distancing.) If Iguana and Gorilla are - ex hypothesi - Evil, then let's look at the trains again:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (4): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2>
Pearl Chameleon (0): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, ~~Amethyst Scorpion<1>~~
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, ~~Onyx Flamingo<1>~~, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>~~, ~~Turquoise Gorilla<1>~~
Scarlet Octopus (0): ~~Amber Vulture~~
Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2>
Magenta Albatross (0): ~~Saffron Iguana<1>~~

Scorp still comes off looking Village here - agree with Vulture's assessment that Scorp's post doesn't really feel coordinated with probably the ten minutes pre-rollover flurry of switches. (I guess you could push it into extreme distancing with Scorp creating an opportunistic tie, but eh...)

I think the correct read is it's probably opportunistic distancing, rather than a deliberate plan to tie Gorilla and Iguana - with Scorp just happening to turn things into a tie. At 4:4:3, Gorilla voting on Iguana would be distancing enough anyway. Ocho looks a bit better in this scenario, having turned the Gorilla train viable. Flamingo looks worse - having pushed the Crocodile train and taken pressure off Gorilla.

I have no idea what to think about Falcon's Mauve vote - Ostrich's has been set early in the cycle, but the situation when the Mauve train comes online looks like this:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (2): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>
Pearl Chameleon (1): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, Amethyst Scorpion
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>~~, Turquoise Gorilla
Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture
Mauve Crocodile (2): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon

I guess you could argue that the Elims weren't too worried, so I could see Falcon's vote going either way. Certainly, for two Elims to stack on the Crocodile train is aI do think they'd prefer not to whip out vote manip willy-nilly, but an Evil Mistborn wouldn't care. And I think the idea that the extreme distancing was opportunistic makes the most sense.

I could see Evil Falcon pressing Mauve, but then Flamingo going onto Mauve as well just seems weird because where's the incentive to bunch up? Mint Heron will later turn the Axl train into a 2 vote train as well, and there's Hyena, so with the number of two-vote trains, where's the pressure to bunch? I feel as though this doesn't make sense. We could say Iguana was forced onto Crocodile but three Elims on a train when they had their choice of CWs doesn't feel right to me. And between Falcon and Flamingo, I think Flamingo looks worse in this scenario for the tie.

Anyway, again - logically possible, but I assess it to be an outside possibility.

C. V/E/V

Spoiler

This in my view is the most likely scenario and judging from the discussion thus far, this view is shared by most of the existing players.

This leaves us with two sub-options: either Gorilla is Evil, or Iguana is Evil.

Alpha: Gorilla is Evil

Spoiler

Quote

Saffron Iguana (4): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2>
Pearl Chameleon (0): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, ~~Amethyst Scorpion<1>~~
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, ~~Onyx Flamingo<1>~~, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>~~, ~~Turquoise Gorilla<1>~~
Scarlet Octopus (0): ~~Amber Vulture~~
Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2>
Magenta Albatross (0): ~~Saffron Iguana<1>~~

Ex hypothesi, Iguana is Village. Last minute vote from Scorp comes off very Village, simpliciter, because it turned a two-way Village tie (on the face of it) to a three-way tie with an Elim finally being endangered. Before that, the count is 4:4:3. It's possible the Elims tried to vote manip to make Gorilla a bit more secure - it's possible that one of the Gorilla voters, for instance, is a Rioter. Rioting a vote from Iguana to Crocodile would - without more vote manip - leave this 5:3:2, making it look potentially like someone was trying to save Iguana and setting Iguana up to take the fall.

Flamingo's vote stands out immediately - moving from Axl to Croc ties Croc (Villager) with Gorilla, diluting the pressure.

Feel like Vulture and Dingo look a bit better here too because Vulture retracted from Octopus, and Dingo did not intervene when they could have tried to splinter votes off from Gorilla.

Scorp looks extremely Village - Scorp brings an Elim into danger when the lynch was otherwise a V/V affair. Alb on the other hand, looks worse because Alb is diluting the vote by creating a V/E/V tie instead of V/E, increasing the odds a Villager dies.

Just as Mint Heron looks good here - stacking onto Axl and staying there even as Flamingo evacuates seems a bit disconnected. There's no need for an Elim to occupy that train and if there was, no reason for Flamingo to leave. This is conditional on Flamingo being Evil/looking bad.

Ocho, I think, looks better. There's no call to turn the Gorilla train into a three vote train when this endangers Gorilla unnecessarily and Ocho's vote was chilling fine on Cham.

Beta: Iguana is Evil

Spoiler

Quote

Saffron Iguana (4): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2>
Pearl Chameleon (0): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, ~~Amethyst Scorpion<1>~~
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, ~~Onyx Flamingo<1>~~, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>~~, ~~Turquoise Gorilla<1>~~
Scarlet Octopus (0): ~~Amber Vulture~~
Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2>
Magenta Albatross (0): ~~Saffron Iguana<1>~~

Ex hypothesi, Iguana is Evil, and Gorilla Village.

If Iguana is Evil, then Magenta Albatross starts to look very Village, because at around twenty minutes to rollover, Albatross ties Iguana with Gorilla and Crocodile, effectively introducing an Elim into an otherwise pure Village tie. I feel like Evil Flamingo is possible, but doesn't fully make sense in this picture, because Flamingo gets involved late at one and a half hours to rollover by tying Gorilla with Crocodile, and there's just no reason to do so - Gorilla is Village so Flamingo just exposes themselves to criticism for no particular reason, and their vote was chilling just fine on Axl. Flamingo looks sort of Village on this one in fact. (And Flamingo just posted about suspecting Iguana and now my paranoia that there's bussing going on just kicked into overdrive...)

Quote

Saffron Iguana (2): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>
Pearl Chameleon (1): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, Amethyst Scorpion
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axolotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, ~~Onyx Flamingo<1>~~, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>~~, Turquoise Gorilla
Scarlet Octopus (0): ~~Amber Vulture~~
Mauve Crocodile (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>

I think we could still explain an Evil Flamingo by arguing that Flamingo pushed the Mauve train as a means of trying to get a second primary train that wasn't Coral Swan. I need to go back and look more at Swan-Flamingo interactions if I have the time. Beagle looks a bit more Village if we are assuming Flamingo-Swan are Evil together, because if Beagle were Evil, then Swan would not have been in real danger.

I should think this through more but I'm dead tired and it's 7AM and there goes my weekend.

II. State of Lion's Reads

Spoiler

Tired Lion means dead Lion. Still have not slept at all, (blah blah blah player I'm impersonating has a policy on blue font but whatever, tired, done) and of all arguments, Axl brought up the one thing that would have gotten the player I'm impersonating to back off and rethink on Cham, and given my Swan reads et al tend to be dependent on Cham, yeah I'm not confident doing a readslist until later, and that's going to be after rollover.

Unfortunate, but true. Am aware that Kas played his worst game in months in LG82 and I am not confident of any read tainted with the same mistakes and I need to relook this with a fresh mind.

Village Lite:

Penguin, Scorp

These are the only reads I feel moderately confident of at the moment. Everything else is going to have to wait.

III. Lurkers and Inactives

Spoiler

As I mentioned, I think there's some incentive for Elims to inhabit certain activity profiles. I don't expect to profile especially active players in this section - I think voting and post analysis should be able to find us those Elims. I want to look here at players who seem to be: a) trying to blend in with the crowd, saying things, contributing, but not necessarily sticking out in discussion, b ) doing the bare minimum (filter-dodging), and c) the inactives.

If we do have inactive Elims, they're not our problem. They're the Elim team's problem. There's a filter in this game that runs on the criteria of at least one post every two cycles. So I don't feel there is a point in pursuing inactives. If they don't show up, they either get filter-killed or get replaced by a pinch-hitter.

To be clear, I'm not saying any player in these categories must be Elim. I'm creating a player pool within each activity profile. I do think it's worth drawing them into discussion, since without info, it's hard to ID our Elims. And maybe it helps to just be aware of whether we have blind spots about players given the size of this game.

C. Inactives: Cold Bodies

We only have two true inactives in this game - Sunburst Toucan and Plum Rhinoceros. Both of them have last login time as being one minute before the profile picture changed. This is likely when the GMs were preparing the account. Since they are inactive, there is nothing we can do about them, and so they are irrelevant.

B. Filter-Dodgers

In my view, these are players who show up and say just enough to dodge the filter. In LG7, Meta had his teammate LeftInch do just that (though granted, they were a minor House faction and therefore not Evil.) I don't want to discount that there are players who see some incentive in filter-dodging, since that helps you avoid scrutiny, and potential Seeker scans.

Azure Mouse - One RP post, disengaged.
Sapphire Elephant - Talk about catching up seems genuine but then promptly disappears.
Ivory Dragonfly* - Passive; one post asking for questions and then ran off (understandable; RL but.)
Quartz Zebra* - Disengaged

All of these except Quartz Zebra have one post each: Azure Mouse showed up and posted some RP but has been watching the thread but refusing to engage, and I've seen Sapphire Elephant on the thread sometimes. Since anon accounts can't interact with the rest of the forum, IMO last login time is a good proxy for some subforum activity. I think some of the accounts do border inactivity (cf. Ivory DF) - if so, then they cross the border into "Not Our Problem" country.

I note Ivory DF seems to have RL stuff, but Ivory DF's post was also very passive - ask me any questions, and Ivory DF has been on since with little follow-up. For that reason, they're in this category.

A. Blending In

I accept that my elocution "blending in" is a little vague: to populate this category, I looked for players who don't seem very interested in engaging with the thread (seem isolated in their own bubble.) These players may say very little, or avoid anything particularly controversial. They may decline to go near any of the hot trains or debates. They're basically trying to stay under the radar.

Melon Dingo - Offers a few thoughts and interacts with some players but doesn't commit and doesn't vote or weigh in on the biggest preoccupations of C1.
Onyx Flamingo - Third voter on Crocodile train but otherwise little engagement/interaction with thread. IRL reasons perhaps, but nonetheless.
Violet Axolotl - I like his style actually, though our playstyle philosophy diverges. Tried to solicit Coral to join a vote on Gorilla. Technically, Axl was involved in the main train, but beyond that solicitation, Axl hasn't featured too significantly in it.
Amethyst Scorpion* - Very borderline case due to involvement in last minute tie and comments with low but consistent frequency on cycle claims but easy to lose track of them.
Oxblood Beagle* - Same deal as Scorpion, more or less. Has one engaged and extensive post N1 (thank you! =) ) but has otherwise generally been low frequency but consistent.
Ocho - Another borderline case. Engaged with N1 discussion, showed up in pockets D1 and D2. IRL reasons as mentioned.

In my view, Mint Heron and Fuchsia Ostrich have spoken up more in D2 (even if a single post) and don't merit inclusion here considering thread interaction, but can be safely included if one so wishes. Amber Vulture is borderline on D1, but not so in D2. Given the amount of heat on Magenta Albatross, I think it's safe to say he isn't blending in very well right now.

IV. Do Not Read This

Spoiler

I mean it. Please do not read this. I just added this here for my own personal reference because I'm tired and I want an easy place to find what I think when I'm not tired. This is raw working and a lot of me thinking aloud so it's not reliable and it's very long. I use the thread as my own personal storage area, yes. Deal with it.

Spoiler

Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon
Pearl Chameleon (1): Scarlet Octopus

Cham opens up the voting on Iguana for overreliance on distro. I feel there’s no need to telegraph a vote if you are seeking to open discussion, but Cham does Cham.

This soon inaugurates the most popular* train of the first half of D1 as Scarlet Octopus votes Cham for distro reasons and trying to shut down discussion. Because I am a hipster, I think both Ocho and Cham are being overly-optimistic here and this is a pointless brawl. In retrospect, - place to stash vote?

Salmon Meerkat fancies himself the Tyrian Falls watchman and asks to see Sunburst Toucan’s ID, presumably because he imagines Sunburst Toucan to potentially be on some sort of criminal watchlist. Spoiler alert: Toucan but Mirkan’t wait for him because he never shows.

Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon
Pearl Chameleon (2): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2>
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~

As always, Meerkat’s vote barely had time to cool down before it subsequently shifts to Cham after catching up on the thread because he feels Cham’s vote is performative. How do you say potato again? One minute apart, Mauve Crocodile decides to add pressure to Cham as well, giving us the lead train for the first half of D1.

Penguin is the next voter, going on Axl. Probably a poke vote, as I don’t recall seeing Axl at this point in the timeline, while Charcoal Hyena votes Amethyst Scorpion for definitive language on the Elim team composition. [@ Hyena – interested in this one here as a number of players were making definitive statements on distro early on. What’s up? Later: Ah okay, looks like a callout to read reactions. Still flagging this because of the targeting but it may be nothing.]

Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon
Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (0): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2>

Hyena’s post is soon rewarded as Penguin goes onto Hyena for bad gut and the sense that Hyena is being too wishywashy in reads list. The state of the votes also further alters as Meerkat begins to feel unease about the lack of response to the Cham train and doesn’t like Vulture lurking silently in the thread because vultures swoop and swooping is bad.

Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon
Pearl Chameleon (2): Scarlet Octopus, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, Mauve Crocodile
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (0): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2>
Amber Vulture (2): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan

Coral Swan soon backs Meerkat up on Vulture. This is an interesting development because this is the first time a tie is generated between our lead Cham train and a second train. Ostensibly a poke vote, but serves to take a bit of the pressure off Cham. Need to relook later on due to the prominent D1 clash between Swan and Cham that occupied part of the cycle. In terms of timing, this is rather early in the cycle (pre-halfway mark), so while I make a note of it, I don’t think it is screamingly significant.

Axl does show up and votes Turquoise Gorilla for trying to slip under the radar. Worth keeping an eye on this because Axl will prove to be a Gorilla end-voter despite being active through the end of the cycle.

Amber Vulture swoops in to vote on Scarlet Octopus for being alarmist on mentioning lylo early. Yes and no – I have a credence of 0.95 in Vulture’s identity so he might not be aware that Village has been taken unawares by lylo in the last couple games, but also Vulture is correct that every cycle should ideally be played as though it were lylo anyway (though this often does not come to pass and I could probably say something profound about expectations versus reality and how we try to reach the ideal but fail but I shall refrain.) Vulture is not wrong it could be performative, but eh. No strong feelings.

Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon
Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (0): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2>
Amber Vulture (1): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, Coral Swan
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl
Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture

Meerkat also moves from Vulture back to Cham – largely because Meerkat apparently has developed sentimentality after all these years and hesitates to heartlessly murder Vulture with a shrekking and partly because Meerkat wanted to see if anything would change by making Cham the lead train, given how Cham has been stable in the lead/lead-tie so far.

Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon
Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (0): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl
Melon Dingo (1): Coral Swan<2>
Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture

Swan goes from Vulture onto Dingo for slipping under the radar: posting and not saying particularly much. As far as I can tell, Dingo’s sole post was two lines on distro thoughts agreeing that LG74 was not going to be a good predictor of this game’s distro and that something unexpected would not be strange, so I can see why Swan might go onto Dingo. Bracketing the issue with Swan and Hyena for now because it comes up later anyway.

If you think Cham is Evil though, this might be a point of note. On the one hand, Swan going onto Dingo looks like splinter train tactics: create a side train and try to funnel villagers there to split the vote and take heat off Cham or potentially save Cham. But I don’t actually think Cham is Evil (more on this later) – but supposing Cham is Evil and Swan is Evil (since we are speculating this is splinter train), the better response is to go onto Hyena. It’s less suspicious (but I’ve said as much) since Swan already said they were suspicious of Hyena. So if we suppose it’s splinter train tactics, we’re more or less committed to a C-S-H team. But C-S clash enough later I don’t think that’s the correct read of the situation, though extreme bussing has happened before.

Beagle doesn’t like that Swan isn’t going for their top suspicion, which, fair enough.

Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon
Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl
Melon Dingo (1): Coral Swan<2>
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle
Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture

Onyx Flamingo goes onto Axl for being too bloodthirsty because cosmic irony is alive and well. I don’t really know how I feel about that but I got player id vibes off that interaction on Axl’s end but that’s neither here nor there.

Flagging Hyena’s note that Ocho has queried Cham extensively. This interaction should be re-read along with Ocho’s original post because we know Mauve’s flip now, and Ocho was first voter on Cham and I can’t remember where Ocho subsequently ended up but undoubtedly soon will.

Fuchsia Ostrich votes for Mauve because Ostrich has a negative gut read on Mauve which is fair, but I’m wary of players who aren’t interested in trying to explicate why their gut is triggering. Disliking the vote on Chameleon is…interesting. What about the vote isn’t great? And if you dislike the vote on Chameleon, it seems to imply you have a more positive view of Cham, but Ostrich is non-committal. If someone you think is Elim is voting for a player, and you don’t think it’s a distancing vote, creating yet another train seems a bit chill when you think the existing lead train is a mislynch. I don’t recall Ostrich’s vote moving either – disengagement + vote stability + Villager target means I’m flagging this one as well.

RP scan indicates Ostrich might’ve intended it as a poke vote – “we aren’t sure if he’s a bad guy yet”, but Ostrich left the vote there, so presumably Ostrich became more sure later on. Ostrich also claims to think Ocho is good which is interesting to me because of the earlier Ocho flag.

Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon
Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl
Melon Dingo (1): Coral Swan<2>
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle
Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture
Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

Meerkat comes back in and goes off Cham—still not much movement around a Cham train. I stand by this read when I look at the cycle again. From the point I go onto Cham to put Cham solidly in the lead:

Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl
Melon Dingo (1): Coral Swan<2>
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle
Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture
Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

I agree with Scorp that the Elims could be employing splinter train tactics. Vote manipulation still requires votes, therefore Elims reluctant to act overtly on the assumption they have vote manipulation must still look for or create a friendly voting landscape. While Soothers are less at the mercy of needing votes, I think an Elim team would still need to blend in even if they intended to use Soothing – from our perspective, this would look remarkably like splinter train tactics.

From the point I got onto the Cham train to try to take the temperature of the train to the time I left it, there have been four votes, all on separate trains. The cycle still feels low-temperature at this point. Axl, Beagle, and Ostrich have been very ‘park and go’ on their trains at this point and there’s no real active attempt to solicit votes or buy-in. It feels more participatory than anything. My gut is that it’s more likely there’s no interest in the Cham train and the Elims are parking elsewhere safely but if you think Cham is Evil, then it might be worth looking among <Violet Axlotl, Coral Swan, Oxblood Beagle, Amber Vulture and Fuchsia Ostrich> for potential splinter trains at this juncture.

Meerkat votes for Gorilla, joining Axl, because I prefer to foster ties early in cycles to see where players will go when given options. Are they interested in breaking a tie? Swinging it? Are they indifferent to it? Gorilla fits in my profile of perfunctory participation and I’m not at this point interested in most of the other extant tie options so Gorilla it is.

Saffron Iguana (0): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~
Pearl Chameleon (2): Scarlet Octopus, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, Mauve Crocodile, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (2): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>
Melon Dingo (1): Coral Swan<2>
Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>
Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture
Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

Never let it be said Meerkat doesn’t like to keep his voting options open.

Interesting move at this point: Cham goes from Iguana onto Coral Swan. This puts Cham-Gorilla-Swan into a three way tie and is a very counterintuitive with slightly under nine hours to go to rollover. It’s not irredeemably late but it seems to endanger two Elims. Trains sometimes have a bad habit of taking off, especially when you might not have enough time to discourage Villagers. Postulating that the Elims had vote manipulation and figured someone would break the tie is still strange because vote manipulation is risky and also it’s better not to tip their hand if they don’t have to. Cham going on Swan could be distancing but I feel I have moderate credence that Cham/Swan not E/E.

Saffron Iguana (0): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~
Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, Mauve Crocodile, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, Chartreuse Penguin<3>
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (0): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (2): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>
Melon Dingo (1): Coral Swan<2>
Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>
Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture
Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

Penguin goes onto Cham at this point. Penguin will pull the vote off eventually so in my view, Penguin/Cham not E/E is not a warranted conclusion to draw from this. But it’s possible that Penguin and Swan could be E/E, or Penguin/Swan/Gorilla or some permutation thereof (just from the raw votes – I’m not sure how I feel about this possibility. Later: yeah, no.) Penguin’s vote breaks the Cham-Gorilla-Swan tie. There’s no real statement of intent—Penguin does say in a PM she wanted a three way, and Cham challenges this vote, and Penguin says it was to test Cham’s reaction.

I’m a bit /shrug about this because Cham has been the leading vote train for what, up to this point? Almost since the get-go. If there was a reaction, there should have been one forever ago. Maybe the rationale is that closer to rollover, this is more likely to elicit a reaction, which is not wrong, but it feels a bit noncommittal, especially since Penguin pulls off and will later return to Hyena when there is appetite for Hyena.

Question at that point for Penguin: how did you find Cham’s reaction? Was it satisfactory? What did you expect to get from it? Penguin just seems nonchalant despite having gotten an immediate reaction from Cham. While I’m all for confounding the expectation that a poke vote should immediately be removed on response, I feel like there’s a decent amount of non-investment in Cham’s response here. If Cham’s response wasn’t satisfactory, why not push harder or try to elicit what you are looking for?

After a PM conversation with Penguin, Meerkat agrees with Penguin that Hyena’s list is a bit performative, and wants to see if it’s possible to poke more out of Hyena (admittedly optimistic that Hyena might see this in time) and goes onto Hyena. Swan votes for Cham again, saying they suspected Cham after Cham’s recent posts.

Saffron Iguana (0): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~
Pearl Chameleon (4): Scarlet Octopus, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, Mauve Crocodile, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>
Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture
Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

I think this is an interesting moment because it puts the Cham train four votes in the lead. Suddenly the Cham train is picking up speed again! There are two key moves to keep in mind: Meerkat moves onto Hyena, breaking the secondary tie between Gorilla and Swan. And Swan goes onto Cham, which might have an element of self-pres besides Swan’s stated motivations – a two vote margin keeps Swan a bit safer from if vote manipulation happens on Cham. Swan does have a bit of a defensive posture though, “Let's be clear, this has nothing to do with the discussion I had with Chameleon about me holding my ground. I was happy to hold my ground in the safety of Dingo, but I'm happier on a suspect I have clearer reasoning for.”

I’m not going to read into this because I feel Meerkat’s motives were pure ( ) – but Swan seems to think that they find Cham to be reaching. Unclear whether this is a genuine difference of opinion between Villagers or motivated reasoning.

Shortly after, Penguin evacuates back to Charcoal Hyena. Swan/Penguin unlikely E/E – their vote movements are opposite of each other with a net zero change. I’m not sure how much I like the elastic band nature of Penguin’s vote, and the fact that there’s net zero change makes me wonder if it’s E Penguin fleeing to a safe side-train in anticipation of V Chameleon’s flip.

But suppose Swan/Penguin are unlikely E/E. If so, I seem moderately committed to thinking Swan is V Swan because it’s just downright odd that Elim Swan would go onto Cham like that, knowing it’s a bad train, and with nine hours to go, especially when Swan wasn’t endangered. Swan had no way of knowing Penguin would back off, and self-pres votes usually tend to be accepted more easily so it feels like an excessive move from E!Swan.

But I don’t know if V!Swan feels right to me either. Conditional V, maybe.

Saffron Iguana (0): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~
Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, Mauve Crocodile, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, Coral Swan<3>
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>
Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture
Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

Axl continues to give me some light…player id vibes. I think it’s the stab-happiness. Probably the stab-happiness.

Unfortunately, Mauve adds a bit of confusion here because he accidentally ascribes a vote from Falcon to him and it looks to me as though Falcon was just colour-coding reads. I don’t think it significantly changes things as Gorilla elects to vote on Swan to tie the Cham train off.

This is the first (in my view) point at which someone seems to act to save Cham. While I’m more convinced by V Cham, note that if we think Cham is Evil, Gorilla’s move should be really alarming here! Because since we have some reason to think Cham/Swan not E/E, if we think Cham is Evil, Gorilla is tying an Elim’s train with a Villager’s train. That’s always noteworthy.

Notice that Gorilla seems committed to securing a lynch – Gorilla cites only Crocodile, Cham, Hyena, and Swan as options and ultimately goes for Swan. Gorilla/Swan not E/E I guess.

On the assumption I’m now lightly committed to Conditional V Swan (see above) – players who create ties usually are invested in one outcome or another, and often receive side-eyes based on the outcome of the lynch. E!Gorilla on this assumption would know that both Swan and Cham are V so it’s a bit odd as E!Gorilla should by right be indifferent to this lynch. Perhaps E!Gorilla was counting on vote manip or trying to tie Swan to himself, but I don’t know if I feel that’s quite right.

I think this does make apparent to me that it might be better to mark Gorilla as the lynchpin and then seek to generate E/V relations from there instead of starting from Cham. I also don’t like doing too long a chain of inferences as there’s a chance something has gone wrong the further you try to project. But I don’t want to introduce doubt as this point in time and I do feel some pressure to at least get a first pass analysis done, so I’m going to bracket this for now and move on.

Saffron Iguana (0): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~
Pearl Chameleon (2): Scarlet Octopus<1>, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, Mauve Crocodile, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, Coral Swan<3>
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (2): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (3): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla
Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture
Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

h/t to Heron for catching this for me – Coral pulls off Cham, and goes onto Gorilla, breaking the tie and endangering themselves. Tempted to do a light Village read for this, and Swan definitely swims a bit better in my estimation, but not significantly so as Swan still retains time to do a self-pres option and self-pres votes are not usually looked askance at. So I think on balance it could go either way.

Then, Ocho shows up and swims off Cham. Still says will go back to Cham if there are Cham voters and if Ocho can make it back for rollover. I’m flagging this in light of Ocho’s persistence on Cham and that it’s worth soliciting Ocho’s current Cham views now but with apologies to Ocho, this has become more comprehensible – Ocho sees a 2 vote train and bails.

Saffron Iguana (0): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~
Pearl Chameleon (1): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, Mauve Crocodile, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (3): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla
Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture
Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

Possible Swan-Ocho connection I suppose. Ocho tying the vote takes some of the pressure off Swan by diluting it and going for Gorilla. And it certainly fits with Ocho’s motivations – null- on Swan and presumable suspicion (what though?) on Gorilla. That being said, Swan’s move was self-inflicted so Ocho taking the pressure off Swan is odd – another net-zero move. But perhaps Ocho was compelled because Swan was trying to get Village cred so an E/E read still feels possible but in my current estimation, that’s a paranoia spiral too far.

I agree at this point with Mauve’s assessment – that it feels like an organic move off Cham for the most part, rather than a concerted defence of Cham.

Falcon comes in with a Mauve vote. Flag this moment as the point the Mauve train becomes a live option – there’s a bit of oddity with Falcon claiming a PM that doesn’t exist but I have a 0.9 confidence read in Falcon’s player ID and that’s—I wish I wouldn’t sound so blasé when saying this but that’s normal and so not something I’d consider AI for Falcon.

Saffron Iguana (2): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>
Pearl Chameleon (1): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, Amethyst Scorpion
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>~~, Turquoise Gorilla
Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture
Mauve Crocodile (2): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon

Scorp has an interesting point about making yourself more high profile in a game with a Tyrian Seeker being more village. Yes, sort of – Claincy Smokers exist for a reason, of course that’s a risk, but Tyrian games are just as prone to high profile players being Evil, I think, so if Scorp is Elim, I do wonder if this is an attempt to keep people on lurkers or CC.

The last paragraph on Scorp’s post when voting for Cham confuses me - @ Scorp, what were you trying to say/think when you voted for Cham? I see a lot of ‘could be E/E’ but I’m not clear on your thoughts on Cham or the leading train at that time. If Scorp is E, possible preparatory train for vote manipulation (this possibility entails either E Gorilla or E Swan.)

Cham switches from Swan to Iguana, citing a better read on Swan. Cham-Gorilla probably not E/E, I think. Slightly over four hours to rollover, and this move endangers Gorilla. It does save Swan so I suppose if you have a scenario in which Cham/Swan are E/E, Cham likely planned to come back on later on and swap votes. I feel as though this is an extreme distancing/extreme bussing kind of scenario and I don’t rate it very highly in my estimations right now, but as we know from LG74, the Wheels on the Bus Go Round and Round, and sometimes that’s just how players roll.

Crocodile – we now know flipped Village – likes the Iguana train better than Gorilla or Swan, and goes for Iguana.

Note Zebra has been mooted as a target, and Falcon asks about Zebra deserving to die. @Falcon – what’s in your mind at this point in time?

Vulture pulls off Ocho, so:

Saffron Iguana (2): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>
Pearl Chameleon (1): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, Amethyst Scorpion
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>,~~ Turquoise Gorilla
Scarlet Octopus (0): ~~Amber Vulture~~
Mauve Crocodile (2): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon

If Gorilla is E, slightly better read of Vulture – not difficult for him to try to splinter votes; should be moderately possible to open up/join other trains to carry off votes or facilitate vote manip. If Gorilla is V—eh. More on this in a bit when I comment on Dingo.

New side-train from Heron, with slightly under three hours to rollover – joins Flamingo on Axl. If Gorilla is E, this is another potential splinter train, with potential E!Heron. Heron takes issue with Axl’s attitude citing randomness of D1 lynch—yes and no. In retrospect, when I look at this interaction, I dislike Axl’s attitude, and realise it is pointing in a slightly different direction than I had first read it as. I read Axl as saying that we proceed from default guilt, which is a position I generally agree with. If a player doesn’t give you reason to think they’re village, then you shouldn’t be invested in keeping them alive. Which – yes and no. Obviously you’d prefer a suspect to be lynched, where possible. At the same time, knowing that the result may often be no better than random doesn’t mean that the Village shouldn’t try, and while the results may be no better than random, the votes are reason/motivation guided, so we want that info out there. I do think it means we can be a bit more pragmatic about D1 voting but the attitude there just seems off. At the same time, I wonder if it’s so dgaf that an Elim is not likely to espouse that in thread. Lean negative but not strongly so.

…Looking at the original interaction in context again, I feel that it’s more of a player attitude difference—Cham seems to distinguish between reasons for suspicion and distrust, and I’m not interested in doing a full exegesis of Cham’s and Axl’s position, just that on the whole, it reminds me of the clash between Joe and someone…was it me? About whether you start by finding innocent players or start by finding guilty players. I don’t think there’s much to say here, but I can see why Heron also didn’t like Axl’s attitude, so I’m just going to move on.

Noting that Dingo shows up to comment but declines to vote. Bad trains? Feels like easier for Elim to find a safe sidetrain at this juncture, and I recall Dingo gets called out by Scorp N1 for being there around rollover but not voting, to which Dingo says he hadn’t been looking at the candidates, was indifferent, and wanted to see vote manip. Ok, but then I have no reason to shift my Dingo read either, and I’m not sure I like the refusal to commit.

I feel like my reads of Vulture and Dingo have to be consistent, or moderately so. If refusal to commit doesn’t allow me to give Dingo a good read, then Vulture shouldn’t get one either. If Gorilla is E, refusal to commit looks good for both Vulture and Dingo. If V!Gorilla, refusal to commit looks bad for both Vulture and Dingo. I’m hesitant on that line of reasoning because I feel it would be easy for Vulture to just vote and blend in, and same for Dingo, so I suppose if Gorilla is V, this should make me feel a bit better about Vulture and Dingo.

In theory I should probably feel a bit better anyway because they dgaf. Part of me is wondering if my high player ID credence on Vulture here is the problem—I haven’t the faintest idea who Dingo is and I’m fairly certain I know who Vulture is, and this is making me more reluctant to credit Vulture than I am Dingo.

Perhaps recklessly but in the spirit of Anon Games, I’m going to let this go and apply the same reasoning to Vulture’s behaviour as Dingo’s since I don’t see a relevant contextual difference here. I’m reluctant to apathy-clear so this should induce null+ perhaps.

Another key juncture here:

Saffron Iguana (2): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>
Pearl Chameleon (1): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, Amethyst Scorpion
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, ~~Onyx Flamingo<1>~~, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>~~, Turquoise Gorilla
Scarlet Octopus (0): ~~Amber Vulture~~
Mauve Crocodile (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>

Flamingo swaps from Axl to Mauve, citing the earlier vote as a poke vote, and that she dislikes Mauve calling for a Zebra train. Which…yes and no. I definitely didn’t like the solicitation and it spiked my Mauve paranoia spiral into overdrive because it felt a lot like Mauve was shopping for a train that would take rather than something he really felt. It’s odd for me to be suspicious of Flamingo for a move that is, ultimately, more or less along the same thoughts I’d had, but I guess I am because this is a really key juncture where Flamingo causes a tie between Gorilla and Crocodile with around an hour and a half to go to rollover, and this turns Flamingo’s vote into a lethal vote on a Villager after vote manip.

There’s immediate train dilution suspicions: was Flamingo trying to dilute the Gorilla train? And if so, who was Flamingo trying to save? If Gorilla is E, this should be a point of concern, suggestive of E Flamingo. (Note that I am not thinking about vote manipulation possibilities in earnest just yet.) Possible as well that if E Flamingo’s original vote on Axl was distancing, Flamingo didn’t want Axl train to potentially take off, and moved onto Crocodile instead.

…And I realise that my post there was an awful mess and it pains me to read it now so I probably should have made an effort to drop my usual playstyle to be more comprehensible kudos to Vulture for trying to go through it anyway.

Albatross swoops in late on Iguana, and seems to mention informational voting. Which is interesting in light of Albatross’s claim to be a returning player – informational voting used to be a player paradigm that isn’t so popular now. @ Albatross, who were your suspicions and who would you have voted on if not Iguana?

Albatross makes it a three-way, which looks even more like vote dilution to me, and makes Penguin’s comments about Albatross being widely-read village even more dubious.

Saffron Iguana (3): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross
Pearl Chameleon (1): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, Amethyst Scorpion
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, ~~Onyx Flamingo<1>~~, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>~~, Turquoise Gorilla
Scarlet Octopus (0): ~~Amber Vulture~~
Mauve Crocodile (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>

I think it’s clear that Albatross coming in like this without much signalling on Iguana looks potentially opportunistic, especially with the Iguana train taking off late. If you think Iguana is Evil, then Albatross looks pretty Evil too for swooping in to save Iguana. This is giving me slightly higher credence in a Village Coinshot as well—it looks to me as though the Coinshot might have suspected Albatross of being an Evil Rioter, or just really disliked the move onto Iguana. If we expect the later vote manip to be Rioting rather than Soothing, then poorly-explained votes that track main trains could be Riots. (There are some outside possibilities but I think they are paranoia and I’m not going to indulge the whyspers of Wyrm.)

I know I’ve flagged it before and Falcon has replied before but – pushback. I didn’t feel pushback either, which to me implies two possibilities: splinter train or no Elim was under threat.

Iguana votes on Albatross, presumably for the swoop.

Saffron Iguana (3): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross
Pearl Chameleon (1): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, Amethyst Scorpion
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, ~~Onyx Flamingo<1>~~, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>~~, Turquoise Gorilla
Scarlet Octopus (0): ~~Amber Vulture~~
Mauve Crocodile (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>
Magenta Albatross (1): Saffron Iguana

Odd choice, but Iguana retains the option to self-pres before the close.

Three minutes later, because we’re getting down to the wire here, Gorilla votes for Iguana, to self-pres and because Gorilla doesn’t want their top village read lynched.

Iguana asking Gorilla for a compromise and voting for Crocodile is weird because Gorilla just stated that they don’t want their top village read lynched either. Guess Iguana likes to push his luck. But here comes the self-pres. I assume the compromise is Iguana asking for Gorilla to retract from Iguana because Iguana has just pulled off a self-pres tie.

Because it’s a self-pres tie, it’s a bit difficult to read—Iguana would be motivated to do that whether Villager or Elim.

Saffron Iguana (4): ~~Pearl Chameleon<1>~~, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2>
Pearl Chameleon (0): ~~Scarlet Octopus<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<2>~~, ~~Mauve Crocodile<1>~~, ~~Salmon Meerkat<4>~~, ~~Chartreuse Penguin<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<3>~~, ~~Amethyst Scorpion<1>~~
Sunburst Toucan (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Violet Axlotl (1): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<1>~~, ~~Onyx Flamingo<1>~~, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): ~~Chartreuse Penguin<2>~~, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): ~~Salmon Meerkat<3>~~, ~~Coral Swan<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axlotl, ~~Salmon Meerkat<5>~~, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2>
Melon Dingo (0): ~~Coral Swan<2>~~
Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, ~~Pearl Chameleon<2>~~, ~~Turquoise Gorilla<1>~~
Scarlet Octopus (0): ~~Amber Vulture~~
Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2>
Magenta Albatross (0): ~~Saffron Iguana<1>~~

Exactly at the same time, Scorpion posts and says they dislike the last minute Iguana push and goes for Gorilla instead. Agree with Vulture - doesn't seem very connected to most of the shenanigans or vote manip. Light V?

That's it from me, I think. Not going to be around for rollover, so best effort basis.

I need to and would like to vote but my brain is shutting down and I feel like I'm not in the best position to handle this rollover now because my head is murdering me and it's hard to think in this state. Everyone has a limit, I've hit mine. Sorry guys :/ I'm just going to crash. Tired Lion is tired.

January 9, 2022

gaiz-

Quote

Saffron Iguana(5): Emerald Falcon, Pearl Chameleon, Charcoal Hyena, Oxblood Beagle, Onyx Flamingo

Onyx Flamingo(3): Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich, Coral Swan

Magenta Albatross(2): Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla

Pearl Chameleon(1): Violet Axolotl

Scarlet Octopus(1): Chartreuse Penguin

ig hasn't voted

think its parasitic on my count

& i registered saff on pearl when shld be other way round.

January 8, 2022

1 minute ago, Violet Axolotl said:

That one did, I can’t say about the others, that is more a vague feeling that this has happened before. But Araris has also been elim a lot recently, so who knows.

axl

i like ur style

but when u say this

i start to sideeye u 2

Spoiler

i dt think i think u r wrng

bt somehow

just somehow

January 8, 2022

1 minute ago, Violet Axolotl said:

In the last LG elim!Sart got 3 votes early D1 (someone, then elim!Araris, then Kas). None of the elims reacted (other than Araris’s vote), and eventually people just moved on. It wasn’t perfect, because Sart died in a tie later, but had players been more active, Sart probably wouldn’t have been voted out that game. The situation with the votes on you D1 looks similar to me.

cld i ask how many of these teams have araris on them

just out of curiosity

January 8, 2022

16 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

I am still suspicious of Swan, and thus Octo, as I don't see how the mistake in the count makes that aspect look any better. It actually kind of makes it look worse.

how so?

January 8, 2022

On the off-chance El and Fifth don't accept a retraction entitled Ocho: Scarlet Octopus.

As far as I can tell, the current state of the votes is:

Quote

Magenta Albatross (2): Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla
Onyx Flamingo (2): Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich
Pearl Chameleon (2): Saffron Iguana, Violent Axoltl
Scarlet Octopus (1): @Oxblood Beagle (bro I made a mistake in the vc which Heron pointed out so if u weren't sold on Ocho before, this is your chance to switch.), ~~Salmon Meerkat<1>~~
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Coral Swan
Saffron Iguana (2): Emerald Falcon<2>, Pearl Chameleon
Emerald Falcon (1): Magenta Albatross
Coral Swan (0): ~~Emerald Falcon<1>~~

That gives us a tie for the lead trains. Way too close at the moment since we have four primary trains, and four secondary trains, and unless I am mistaken, we're currently around nine hours to rollover. That's way too many options for vote manip to play with since the secondary-primary train gap is basically a single vote. I don't feel like I'm going to be able to make it to rollover with how tired I am, although I still have a bit of time left in me.

@Coral Swan - Please appreciate this because I cut my longpost short just to add this for you.

January 8, 2022

26 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

The other time I felt weird was their push on Octopus this cycle. They basically say Octopus moved from Chameleon (alignment unknown) to Gorilla (alignment unknown) to put Swan in the lead (again, alignment unknown). Stresses on the fact Octopus put Gorilla on the side-train but that doesn't matter now, does it? Because Gorilla ended up being one of the main trains and Octopus ended staying on Gorilla train.

Except that I've mentioned I currently read Cham as light Village and I'm not interested in info lynching Cham just to secure the point - I prefer to lynch people I suspect. I can be persuaded into an info lynch between two suspects but a info lynch on a light Village read makes no sense to me, I also mentioned below I felt that I was committed to Swan-Cham not E/E on the basis of their interactions.

This is partly on me as it was very early in the morning, thoughts were sloshing out in my head, and I should have spelled it out better, but in a single thesis statement:

Quote

"I don't like Ocho because I think the voting action clashes with Ocho's stated motivations, and since I read Cham as light Village and the movement is just odd, and Ocho claimed to not be able to return before rollover, this just looks like an Elim trying to evacuate from a train they know is going to result in a damning flip."

Does that help?

I agree it doesn't matter now though because I've missed Swan's vote (and actually discovered I missed another Vulture vote as well) which drastically changes the situation and makes the point a moot one.

35 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I don't seem to recall correctly but my opinion is obviously trying to look good if your e teammate flips without particularly endangering them by voting.

Beagle voted Coral Swan for this choice 12 minutes after the halfway mark into the cycle. If it was near end of cycle, I'd be more convinced, but I feel that's sufficiently early that E Swan could've just done it rather than set up an odd situation he wouldn't profit from. We agree on a V swan read for now though.

I recall most strongly making this argument for why I don't think the "Swan is Evil teammates with Hyena and therefore is refusing to vote Hyena" works. I had this argument with Cham in thread D1. In short, my argument is that Swan had every means of voting Hyena without having to suffer negative externalities. He had no reason to refrain from doing so. Otherwise, as I've mentioned elsewhere in PMs that I'm concerned I've been staring at the D1 so much the connections are starting to become dubious to me, so I'm afraid you'll have to ID something to me before I can mention it.

Anyway, if you don't read Cham V, and you don't read Swan V, then this point obviously won't be convincing to you, but as I laid out in the post, I think there's some reason to read Swan V and Cham V. (Reads list pending as I'm trying to make my thoughts readable rather than the ravings of a kel slowly going mad.)

Claiming that putting Gorilla on the side-train doesn't matter seems disingenuous and I'm struggling to work out if this is my old cognitive biases as a player flaring up again because I get twitchy and start suspecting nefarity when players start misrepresenting or skewing arguments and I've been told by many better players that I need to work on that (thank you M'Hael and Meta.)

I'm not sure why you think that's irrelevant since the side-train ended up becoming the main train. It's worth looking at the point that the side-train evolved into a serious contender for the main train, because we want to ask if that's hostile activity or not, what was the instigation, do the reasons and motivations hold up with their actions, or do we think there's something more sinister at work. To put it another way, if we want to scrutinise the Gorilla-Crocodile-Iguana tie that killed a regular Villager, then we want to look at movements onto the train and in particular, movements that progress the train or bring it into serious contention.

The usual MO to looking for Elims at the end of a hotly contested Day is to look for strange movements onto a train. I've been trying to do that for D1, and that's when the Ocho movement popped to me because I missed Swan's ninja vote.

58 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Albatross PM'ers, can you answer this?

It's an awkward admission as I've just realised that Albatross said something in our PM that I should have construed as him being a returning player but I didn't pick up on it - specifically he said that he heard the claim crowd is more common nowadays.

I think I must have picked up the new player impression from the thread mentions and his engagement with meta because if I'd paid closer attention, that word should've been a tell to me.

January 8, 2022

Still working on fixing my analysis, going through the rest of the N1 actual longposts, and going back to this thread, and trying to integrate/tidy up my reads list and intervene/respond at certain junctures of this debate. I see Swan's ninja vote and must have missed it when scanning the paragraph - I really should try to modify Drake's tallybot (after asking for permission) maybe: I usually seem to be taken by surprise by such votes when tracking.

First, Ocho, with my apologies, and thanks to Heron for catching that post from Swan. I've passed the Swan-Ocho interaction and while it's worth commenting on, Ocho doesn't come off looking bad or sticking out at this point in the voting.

Personal view on the Coinshot claim:

Last night: "I have 9 problems ~~pages on the D1 thread~~ and this isn't one of them"

Today:

<ok.png>
Assess unlikely that actual Coinshot would claim
Assess unlikely that actual Coinshot would have such a strong read D2 on player with aggressive ISO & placed a lethal vote on Mauve Crocodile who flipped village to claim what is usually considered a power role
Such a claim should be suspicious in and of itself to V!Falcon and should balance a Village read
Phishing MO consistent with 0.9 confidence player ID read of Falcon - assess likely V!Falcon is phishing for reactions (what reactions did you gain from this, and how has this helped your reads?), assess possibility E!Falcon could be trying to prompt reaction from actual Coinshot but seems a bit paranoid as I feel the real Coinshot isn't going to react overtly just because Falcon claimed to have a claim, but perhaps E!Falcon imagines a V!Coinshot would think this person is an imposter and try to find out who that person is because they're probably Evil, and so that might be an avenue to trawl for responses
Not impossible actual Coinshot did in fact claim (I'm looking at you, rampant claimers to Maili in AG2) in which case the damage has been done, and there's nothing I can do that immediately makes the situation better so I am going back to fix my analysis and do the many things I can do on my free weekend.

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