Mint Heron

FWIW, confirmed, re-asked regardless, and also is a staple element of Tyrian rules and why I said I don't care if a Seeker claims to encounter a Smoke tonight because in a two-Elim world, a night Smoker also isn't killing. Agreed about the mech being an issue and causing a great amount of consternation, hence appreciating what you and Cham can bring to the table if you're fresh. Edited to add: Mfer you tell me then why you are poking at this puzzle as well!

Us: "Let's not do this anymore nothing makes sense we just need the night to end." Also us: "HELL-O ROLLOVER EXE CREW, WHAT D'YOU WANNA TALK ABOUT TODAY?"

Zebra fakeclaimed Lurcher against me before man. I remember I will say this. I don't want to rely on player knowledge, but that self-pres post from Zebra was odd. I haven't played very many AGs (and I'm not lying ) I would say Jo games are the one game I'd hesitate (more so than TUM ones) to try to make an inference about multiple Seekers. I do remember one or two and I have a Tyrian distro in the back pocket with a Satanic number of Seekers but it would be the one time I'd be like about it. The issue here is really compounded by the number of Coinshots and the Elim kill because with 2KP and another 2 scans on Village side, assuming no overlap, that's a lot of players being cleared or terminally cleared, 1/5 the game. Yeah sure there will definitely be overlap and Seekers/CS dropping dead, but even so. I will say there is something from Dingo that gave me a bit of pause: (On Dingo as a V!Seeker being willing to draw flak with the joke Lurcher claim) I'm willing to chalk it down to player personality but definitely would expect a Seeker to be more low-key on D1. Edited to add: Well, these two. There's always a more casual FAFO energy to Zebra when Elim. (Don't want to crutch on this which is kind of why I haven't really bothered guessing too many identities and have been very vote-centric this game, also because tired and votes are easier to do off-the-cuff.) and: This...is a very unusual post from Zebra. I have almost never seen it from v!Zebra, and in fact, I don't recall seeing it from e!Zebra as often either, which is why it just...puzzles me.

Coinshot + Elim kill = Lurcher dies. It's not the difference, it's that reliably having both gets rid of the Lurchers so they wouldn't be immortal. A setting where the Elims only have access to an Elim kill and would need to also acquire a Coinshot kill via kandra to deal with Lurchers would be one possible reason the Lurcher rule was decided to be too restrictive. Edited to add: ........I'll do a viz chart at some point ._.

Yeah. I don't like killing innocent Villagers even if we learn from it, so prefer to try to find the best possible solve to reduce unnecessary casualties. I also believe in flipping people who do less Villagery things over those who do more Villagery things. This puts me right in the "clear PoE" problem wrt you and Lion. Since both of you just came in/came back, if you're Village, you have less preconceptions than us because you've not been grinding through the game. How do you propose to solve the cluster? Kill Ocho, who shot Croc N1? Kill Toucan, who was supposedly scanned by Flam, meaning a Flam-Toucan solve? Kill Axl, who some people sus but was also the C1 CW to DF? Kill DF, who was the C1 Lurcher claim and the main train for a decent chunk of the cycle and also helped exe Elims from D1 to D3? Kill Weasel, who hardcased Kanga on D1 and was third Kanga voter but also has been hellbent on flipping Ocho? Kill Zebra, who Dingo and Meerkat claimed to have scanned as a Village Lurcher, meaning a Dingo-Zebra solve? Kill Rhino? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Edited to add: I agree it's clear there's some assumption that's wrong, or that we're just ramming repeatedly into this wall, I'm minded of what Araris said about the last Elims clearly doing something unexpected to slip past us ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I feel like if they both hit Elims, the game ends man... I refuse to believe they started with a 7 man team, and given 4 Elims down now, if they both hit, we're just done with the game. Interesting catch from Cham. I saw this, wanted to say something about it, and forgot again, and kind of got there with Lion earlier in that strictly speaking by Lion's definition of firepower it just cannot be a Mistborn. But all E!Toucan worlds are also E!Flam worlds, and well, we've been through the Ocho problem already. I don't disagree with the logic, but I think there's almost no room for a Smoker here if so? Which creates extra weirdness with Dingo. It's less about whether I think Lion is suss and more that I think there is an inherent instability in this worldview that points to something being wrong with some of the anchoring priors. ...And yes sorry Beagle I am staring at the same old problem we have not been able to solve which is why I pointed to what I was saying and referred to it as reasoning people will hate because technically a flip in either cluster is in fact informative. I just hope we'll find the correct cleavage point again to crack it wide open. Edited to add: Tbh I think there's some value to tracking who wants the Coinshots exed and who wants the Lurchers exed in that I strongly feel that the surviving Elims are probably shoving us towards the clean set. @Indigo Weasel Apologies if you've addressed this before - if the Elims had a Coinshot from the start, why does the immortal Lurcher rule need changing since doubletaps ensure the target dies anyway?

Axl started it! (Axl wanted recommendations, that kind of started the whole conversation.) Dude, you still think we look at Ocho, or where's your view of the Elims/starting point tomorrow?

My vote is for no kill but if you're looking to kill someone, I would probably suggest sticking to the <Cham, Lion> set (sorry Cham, Lion...) Tbh I'm fine dying lol.

Axl's someone else has to be Flam or Dragonfly thereabouts but I think you should be protected regardless because you've been anchoring the rollover crew and I personally consider that more valuable than raw roles at this stage. Reasoning that people will hate: Dingo and Flam are Seekers and that's valuable but given the connectives and the problem at hand, if we lose either of them, we get confirmation of the chain. Conversely if they aren't shot at, it's also telling. Similar RE: trying to make sure the Lurchers and CS cross-protect - like kind of maybe but we are starting to think something is wrong with that cluster and the Elims hitting in that cluster actually helps us, so that's not the worst thing. Fundamentally we have a numerical advantage as long as the CS-es don't shoot too wildly and we show up and keep doing the work and voting. We are Villagers before we are roles. We always need to remember this. Edited to add: Fair. But also they don't know what we do know - I do feel an Elim team with 2 Seekers probably expects a decent amount of roles but also Smokers Village-side. It's the natural balance at least, meaning they had to weigh 'hostile counter-Smoking' into their calculations when trying to decide if Croc should Riot. Fair point. It being both Lion and Cham would be so incredibly convenient that I'm refusing to believe it as a starting proposition. It does mean that the remaining Elim(s) have likely bussed at least once. IDK man that's more the thing the SE people who moonlight on MU here are better at than me, I do not like to go after people who do Villagery things until I have gone through the tier of people who haven't done Villagery things.

Given where everyone is... Man y'all gonna hate hearing me say this but. Beagle. If you feel slightly spicy, Flam. If (and don't reply to this part) you for some reason lied and didn't actually Lurch me last Night, you can consider one now (you can't retarget anymore) because I'm eating Meerkat tonight to get the Seeker role.

I am going to note in advance that something might happen here that might bring suspicion down on Flam. If so, y'all might wanna bookmark and come back to this Edited to add: I am not saying what it is at this point for reasons, I simply also do not want someone getting twitchy and murking Flam overnight just because I wasn't there to point it out. Flam is technically the pivotal vote that turned Ig into a viable train on D2. That to me does carry some weight unless we feel that was bus point. The only world I can see this being true (relative certainty) is if one of their kandra started with a single digit < 5 gen. But relying on Croc can also be risky because how do they know the Villager in question isn't Smoking? With Smoking being Turn-based, there is absolutely no reason to not Smoke during the Day to just remove Emotional Allomancy shenanigans. (To me this almost implies it only works if they're risk-happy or if Croc is Rioting off a teammate's vote.) Edited to add: In fact, maybe we're forgetting Elim fog-of-war. If you're an Elim team with 2 Seekers at the start, isn't your instinct to believe the Village might have a decent chunk of Smokers for balance? @Plum Rhinoceros @Oxblood Beagle - Do they dare to simply assume Rioting just...works in that landscape? Rhino I vaguely recall as being one of the pivotal votes on Meerkat but need to go back and check. I'm curious also (lol sorry) of your view on the D3 voting since to me, it was relatively stable on Ocho and I'm slightly inclined (respect the problem and Lion's+Weasel's instincts but) to think it was V/E. In which case our Meerkat CW taking off is already pretty wild as it is. I think in most worlds if it is 1-2 Elims left, the effect size will be quite small, so it may not be as informative, but I'm wondering if anyone particularly acquits themselves well on D3 and I think that's just mostly Rhino since there's separate reasons for most of the participants.

I'd agree but I think I'm curious about what Lion's worldview is. I don't disagree we're all stuck with a fairly unintuitive distro but it's interesting that Lion and Cham almost have opposite views about the direction to go in. And, as one of the guys suggesting the CS just smite Lion or Cham, I think it's worth hearing them out or finding out the nuts and bolts of their views, especially in the world they flip Village. If it's a PH, they've put effort into showing up and I kind of respect and don't wanna waste that either. Edited to add: To be fair, this is true of nearly half the game, judging from the fact we've had a train on Ocho for the last two days.

Yeah. It's not my instinctive world, which I think entails we are looking more at a missing Lurcher/slipped Lurcher hunt at present. If I've missed it, where's your first take on where we should be looking?

It does seem kinda weak for an additional firepower hypothesis, hence my question. Suppose Flam does turn out to be Village - what's your read of the situation then? Where do we go from there? (This assumes that v!Flam entails v!Toucan which I think is reasonable enough.)

I'm not bloodthirsty enough for it, no

How do you resolve: A. Ocho shooting E!Croc B. Toucan being scanned by Flam Like, fundamentally Mistborn get Steel once and then can only get it again after the full eight cycle thing has been cycled. From your POV if one of them must have firepower potential, Mistborn is just a oneshot unless the game is predicted to end later than 8 cycles, in which case it is a twoshot (it is not going past C16 at 20 players and no GM models for that kind of length.) Either you think there is a third Coinshot hiding somewhere, or you think A or B is more likely to have our last Elim, right?

If not already implied, Cham has said they will be attaching a random claim to every post. They don't want to claim. At this point we either scan them or resolve them with CS, or you know, do the normal reads thing, though Cham and Lion are coming in at a disadvantage.

Am curious if this is a slip or if this implies that Cham isn't a kandra. Generation numbers go downward, I had to clarify this because 69 killed me.

I have work in a bit so it probably isn't happening but need sleep as in I will not try to get my brain to make this make sense anymore. Edited to add: Actually ok actual thought: it has to be an E!Smoker/Mistborn if true. I keep forgetting Smoking is Turn-based in this game. No Village Smoker would be Smoking at Night - it's counterproductive. You would Smoke in the Day to prevent Emotional Allomancy shenanigans.

Yeah, sorry Lion. I feel like your non-distro posts should be readable, but I'm also functioning on low battery rn, and in a game where your predecessor/you had a voting record, I would probably feel more confident on assigning you a bracket but rn it's just a mass of shrug. Similar for Cham really. Accepting DF's point about the Cham timing and potential for being the Smoker contact. Wrt whoever who suggested that Ele Smoked Croc... I think the main issue is that Villagers tend to be more reluctant to hit the Smoke button due to scan worries, except in endgames. If anything, Araris, Wyrm, Drake, myself, and a few other Tyrian GMs have been - wow this sentence is completely not deanonymising at all - fighting a losing war for a while in terms of trying to incentivise Smoking from Villagers. It's not impossible, but it would surprise me regardless. Smart. Safe target + at least we know no Smoker targeted Zebra in the Day. Would've asked you to do a net-zero Riot if I had brain power but I didn't that night so sorry about it. The flip side/corollary to me is that IDK if the infinite self-protect rule gets revoked if the Elims had a Coinshot, because prior to this, Jo and TUM ruled that Lurchers can die from being double-tapped. So if the model is they will always self-protect, then you just get coordination for a double-tap = Villager dies. (Noteworthy that the odds the v!CS will coordinate are lower because you have to claim, get past the Spiderman pointing, and also, PM odds are low because while you do have four Mistborn (sorry if I got the numbers wrong, tired), metals don't repeat in this game.) That + not much Smoking power/incentive Village side and two Elim Seekers seems to point to, in an E!CS world, high capacity for surgical strikes, on the self-protect model. I guess I'm saying I agree with you tentatively about the E!Lurcher, I simply think that we can't assume that the E!Lurcher in question actually declared their role accurately, which means that the target in question in this case may not even be within the four Lurcher pool. (More thinking aloud than replying Dingo at this juncture lol sorry Dingo) : It looks like we are left with only so many worlds to make sense of this. A. One CS is Evil -> Either Octo actually gunned down a teammate (goddamn, Octo!), or Flam is lying and falsely cleared Toucan. (The main counterintuitive things that happened in this world are E!Octo shooting their team's thread control guy, or E!Toucan in this world actually upping and claiming to Octo before Flam claimed the scan. There's a side-world where E!Octo told E!Flam who then claimed the scan.) B. One Lurcher is Evil -> Either DF, Axl, Zebra, or Weasel is Evil. Alternatively, someone not in the Lurcher pool is the Evil Lurcher, who simply didn't declare their role. I think at this point it would need to be in <Beagle, Heron, Toucan, Albatross, Lion, Chameleon, Dingo, Flam.> There is a very weird world where Meerkat is actually the kandra who ate Kanga and flipped Seeker, and Flam simply claimed their teammate's scans FWIW ( @Oxblood Beagle ) which gives us a Flam + Zebra solve for last Elims. Flam being willing to scan tonight puts a bit of a pin in this since Flam either has to claim a scan on someone who got killed, or you know. Heron is easily resolved if I die tonight or, y'know, since I'm having a midnight snack on Meerkat. Lion, Cham, Dingo, Toucan are all theoretical places since Toucan technically was scanned by Flam. However, Toucan's claim is cross-validated by their behaviour, claim and Ocho. Beagle is #1 Villager at this point, Mistborn scan, but theoretically no validation of roleclaim. Wouldn't bet on this though. Tross is tied to Beagle due to Beagle's scan, which Tross confirms. (I ruled out Gecko and Rhino because we saw the Soothe today meaning Rhino cannot be a Lurcher, and Gecko did the Tineye thing. It's theoretically possible Gecko's teammate put it in, but yeah, it requires a second teammate within this pool probably.) In the DF, Axl, Zebra, or Weasel set, on the assumption the Zebra scan is accurate since we received it from Dingo and Meerkat, we should really be looking in <Axl, Weasel> before DF. I would actually slightly put Weasel before Axl due to Weasel's Octo crusade and Croc's behaviour on Axl, but yeah. I think this is it for me, my brain is just not braining anymore. Need sleep.

Edit: Basically in B world the killable targets are always just Cham and Lion (sorry.) I just wanted to spell out the two sets of options more clearly tbh. Partly because I don't want wasted scans but also feel you/Weasel etc are solveable and if we don't point out the issues, we get a pointless hero shoot that's counterproductive because we have a good monopoly on successful NK blocks atm.

Ninjaed by Dingo but we go on Like my main problem is that if your Seek targets are Dingo, Lion, Cham, and y'all want night shooting, who tf your CSes gonna shoot? Rhino? Axl? Why are we shooting less suspect people and scanning more suspect people? That's just perverse. That's why I think we really have two main options: A. Go for a no kill for tonight and Seekers freely pick targets among those suggested so far, or: B. Accept the Seekers scanning in <Dingo, Rhino, Axl> because scanning Cham and Lion while calmly shooting Rhino, Axl, or Dingo as other suspects is just perverse. Maximum lethality should stay at the bottom of the PoE, not start at a higher/"somewhat more Villagery" tier. I'm pro-No Kill tonight because of the coordination issues but just want to avoid wasted scans and shots.

At some point here someone is going to confuse a Coinshot into shooting a Seek target Guys we really need to disaggregate both target pools if you want night shooting @Onyx Flamingo @Melon Dingo @Scarlet Octopus @Sunburst Toucan Dingo, Flam: Not asking you to declare but more asking if you guys would consider steering clear of CS targets to avoid wasting tempo. Honestly at this stage of the game I lean No Kill but am ok with a shot in Lion/Cham (sorry guys) and would like a scan in Rhino/Dingo/Axl/Weasel. Particularly Dingo since V!Dingo guarantees scan integrity. FWIW, if I've forgotten: @Plum Rhinoceros Who did you Soothe? If a Seeker finds a Smoked target, then we know the Elims have at least two members left, because a Smoker cannot Smoke and kill at the same time. @The Unknown Medallion / @A Jo in the Bush is this correct? I see y'all turned Smoking into a turn-by-turn voluntary thing.

Agreed. Also uh my GOAT won but may have tapped someone's arse (as in tapped out on it) to do it so there will be no end of jokes but holy ring IQ Like I think it's just worth looking at where they were. Moving Meerkat up from Would Vote tier is an interesting strategy btw since both Kanga and Meerkat are Elims that Croc did that for. Ohhhh interesting, Croc has Gecko down twice. No wonder I was going nuts wondering how Croc hit 20. Interesting that Gecko is in two categories. Cham and Lion are two ? here - of the two I'd say probably worse on Lion than Cham. Cham's current refusal to play ball feels a bit V!leaning. Voting behaviour still makes me positive on Gecko and Axl. Rhino with the Meerkat swing is positive on Rhino so I'm ok with this. Dingo... IMO Dingo gets D2 cred, acknowledge the theory, and respect it enough Dingo is not greened again. I'm leaning towards one more Elim in top tier (potentially) or in bottom. I think it's where the numbers skew.

Edited to add: @Pearl Chameleon Who'd you previously target and what's your view of the path ahead for the Village? Who would you suspect/pressure tomorrow?