Jump to content

Mint Heron

RP Accounts
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    576

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Mint Heron

  1. Mint Heron
    Oh, yeah. I laughed for a solid minute when I saw my account name. Might have let some of my classmates think I'd gone off the deep end
  2. Mint Heron
    Nah, I got assigned as a pinch-hitter, so it probably wasn't deliberate. It did confirm some theories I held about the state of the universe though
  3. Mint Heron
    FTFW, I'm still too young to open myself up to attacks from visiting faculty that way...>> Edited for formatting, cause OCD.
  4. Mint Heron
    ...Soddit. Two votes taken off of Mouse, one taken off of Axolotl. Short of divine intervention, we're not going to be able to muster up the votes to stop a village lynch. The game might as well be over tonight. @Sage Kangaroo, @Sapphire Elephant, @Magenta Albatross, would you mind telling us how many turns we have left, so I'll know how much time I have to get closing RP up?
  5. Mint Heron
    Soddit. Well played Sympathisers. You did really well, pulling off a clean sweep and another evil win for the AG.
  6. Mint Heron
    Boody hell. This is the last minute hammer, isn't it?
  7. Mint Heron
    Same :S But we need to have a lynch that has at least six votes on it, otherwise we leave the lynch open for the Sumpathisers to potentially pull a hammer on any villager they want, and it's unlikely that we could have do that this close to rollover. The way I see it we can either lynch someone who might be a Sympathiser or be forced to lynch someone who for sure is not a Sympathiser. It's not ideal, but what in SE ever is? Hi Sarge
  8. Mint Heron
    Friendly reminder that there's a possibility of a last-minute hammer. If we have five Sympathisers, they could contest the Mouse lynch by creating a tie. If we have six Sympathisers, they could potentially lynch anyone of their choice, and that's not even taking into account their vote manipulation. I hope that Nolan's Soothe and the Sympathiser Soothe will cancel each other out, but as Titus Maccius Plautus says, "Things which you do not hope happen more frequently than things which you do hope." If possible I'd like everyone to be online around rollover, to be able to counter any possible last-minute swings. The last thing we want is to be about to lynch a Sympathiser but have the lynch forcibly redirected at the last moment >>
  9. Mint Heron
    Sorry not sorry If it helps, my vote tally is accurate up to my vote?
  10. Mint Heron
    Vote Tally: Mouse (4): Nolan (Dragonfly) <1>, Elephant <1>, Albatross <1>, Kharsis <2> Axolotl (3): Scorpion <1>, Crocodile <1>, Axolotl <1> Scorpion (2): Kharsis (Heron) <1>, Ostrich <1>, Mouse <1> Scorpion, Mouse. I wanted to see if any other lynches would rise in response to the Mouse one. At this point in the game the village:Sympathiser ratio is so low that I assume that any major lynch movement will lean that the Sympathisers are behind it in some way, while any lynch stagnation was because the Sympathisers were happy with where the votes were. That's actually why I parked my vote on Scorpion, to see if diversifying the lynch options would provoke a response. While the Axolotl and Scorpion lynches might be village-driven, this is all happening in the back end of the cycle, so I'm warier of it. As the Mouse Soother hasn't claimed yet, I'm inclined to think that they're evil, and as Vanna (Toucan) said above, an evil Soother matches more with a Sympathiser Mouse situation than a Sympathiser Scorpion one.
  11. Mint Heron
    If this was early or mid game I'd want a Mouse lynch just to get all of the information it would provide, but it's too late in the game to risk it now >> After looking over Scorpion's posts, I get the feeling that he's not very engaged in the game -- perhaps because he already knows everybody's alignments? He hasn't said very much of use to the game, and his reasoning has generally been weak. Scorpion. I know that's not a very thorough analysis, but I have a paper to finish that I've spent far too long putting off in favour of SE. I'll check back inthread later, but don't expect too much from me.
  12. Mint Heron
    1. I don't feel that Zebra fits the category of being really active and controlling discussion; he was last online at 11:19 PM SGT Wednesday and last posted on 4:19 AM SGT Tuesday. Besides, if the Sympathisers had a driver of discussion who was misdirecting us, I doubt that driver of discussion would be as silent as Zebra has been -- again, Zebra last posted on Tuesday. 2. Generally I trust you. I've just been trained very well to cover all my bases when I start conjecturing about situations where some of the information is unreliable 3. We need to lynch someone because we find them suspicious, not just for information. I'm going to step back from Mouse and maybe look at Scorpion. On Day Seven I might have gotten too excited about catching something that didn't match up and tunnelled on Mouse :/ I'll vote at some point today, just not now.
  13. Mint Heron
    For reference, here's the final vote tally of Day Seven, before vote manipulation: Vulture (4): Nolan (Dragonfly)<1>, Scorpion <1>, Nolan <3>, Kangaroo <1>, Falcon <1>, Albatross <2> Scorpion (4): Mouse <1>, Toucan <1>, Vulture <1>, Elephant <1>, Mouse <3> Crocodile (0): Nolan <2> Mouse (4): Kharsis (Heron) <1>, Ostrich <1>, Falcon <2>, Axolotl <1>, Kharsis <3> Vanna (Toucan) (1): Chameleon <1>, Albatross <1> Aldrick (Falcon) (0): Mouse <2> Elephant (0): Kharsis <2> It looks like these are our possible scenarios for what happened Day Seven: [SCENARIO 1]: Sympathiser Mouse and village Scorpion In this case, the Sympathisers would have sought to move the lynch away from Mouse. Albatross would be more likely to be village, since he made the tie a three-way one instead of breaking it. Since it was so close to rollover, he could be reasonably sure that the lynch would be on whoever he put it on. It's possible that the Sympathisers didn't want to reveal themselves that obviously, but a last-minute vote-switch like that is both high-profile and ineffective. Making the tie a three-way instead of a two-way would have only reduced Mouse's chance of death by 1/6, and there was very little chance of someone else placing a vote on Scorpion or Vulture afterwards to ensure a non-Mouse lynch. Ostrich would also be more likely to be village, even though his (expressed) reasoning was rather shoddy. Axolotl would be more likely to be village for placing a vote on Mouse that created a three-way tie. We had two vote manipulations, where one vote was taken off of Scorpion and Mouse each. Nolan claimed that he Soothed a vote off of Scorpion. Since nobody has counterclaimed, I'll assume that it is true, which makes Nolan more likely to be village. The lynch after only the Mouse Soothe would have been at Vulture (4) and Scorpion (4), which makes it far more likely that the Soothe was made by a Sympathiser, as it would have left a tie between two villagers if not for Nolan's Soothe. [SCENARIO 2]: Village Mouse and Sympathiser Scorpion Albatross would also be more likely to be village, for the same reason as in Scenario 1. Nolan (Dragonfly) looks slightly because of his defence of Scorpion, where he went through the rationale behind Scorpion suspicions and dismissed them, and for removing a vote from Scorpion. Axolotl looks slightly more evil because he made the lynch a three-way tie. Voting on Mouse to broaden the tie instead of breaking the tie by pushing the Vulture lynch would have been less suspicious if the Scorpion lynch went through, but also less likely to save Scorpion. Similar to Scenario 1, the lynch after only the Mouse Soothe would have been at Vulture (4) and Scorpion (4). Assuming Nolan is a villager, it's much more likely that the Mouse Soothe was made by a villager, since it would have left Scorpion with a 1/2 chance of dying if not for Nolan's Soothe. Assuming Nolan is a Sympathiser, then the Mouse Soother could plausibly be a Sympathiser, because the Sympathisers would know that after the two Soothes Vulture would be lynched. [SCENARIO 3]: Village Mouse and village Scorpion None of the votes on the three major lynch trains would be very indicative, since the Sympathisers wouldn't care that much who wound up dead. The Mouse Soothe might have been done by a villager, but it also might have been done by a Sympathiser. In this case, the Sympathisers would have Soothed a vote off of Mouse in order to cast suspicion on him. [SCENARIO 4]: Sympathiser Mouse and Sympathiser Scorpion Albatross would be more likely to be evil, because his action could have been a last-ditch attempt to save Mouse and Scorpion. Kangaroo's vote would look much worse. Chameleon would look slightly more suspicious for providing an alternate lynch in the form of Toucan. Note: I made the assumption that since we have no PMs, no communication or coordination could happen between Nolan and the Mouse Soother unless they were both Sympathisers. Unless otherwise stated I also assumed that Mouse Soother would have manipulated the votes as if they would be the only one to do any manipulation. If you were the one to Soothe a vote off of Mouse, please step forward. Knowing your identity will help the village tremendously. If nobody steps forward by the end of this Day, I will assume that you are a Sympathiser. Edit, because I forgot to put this in here: a lot of my argument against Mouse hinges on the inconsistency between being (seemingly?) unaware of what PM safety was Day One and then being able to explain it to someone much later in the game. However, if Mouse is M'Hael, that's not indicative of his alignment anymore. I don't want to break the rules by asking M'Hael for information that only he would know that an imposter couldn't possibly dig up, so I'm approaching this from a different angle, as can be seen by the above wall of text
  14. Mint Heron
    Kharsis came back from the Thoughful Skyeel with slumped shoulders and a pounding headache. When he reached Elion's house, he almost collapsed in relief. Almighty above, he thought. It's good to be home. "How was it?" Elion asked. "It's insane," Kharsis said. "There was this big discussion over who we should kill, all focusing around three people..." He rubbed his aching head. "There's this guy called Hermux, who said some weird things. He said he was my friend once, but I don't really remember him and we got into a row over it." "You didn't kill Amber, did you?" Helina asked. Kharsis shook his head. "Stormfather, no! But...I saw them kill him. At least it was quick."
  15. Mint Heron
    A long time ago, there used to be players who would declare themselves disciples of one of the four mods: Meta, Gamma (who's now inactive), Alvron, and Wilson. I myself am a Disciple of Gamma (Great Lord Urbain, long may he live). M'Hael was the Herald of the Brightness Ascendant, one of the alternate names used for Wilson. The easiest analogue I can think of is the Houses in Harry Potter -- it's not so important what House you're in but you're expected to keep it consistent and there's some mock rivalry between the Houses. The relation to this game is that Mouse claimed that he was a recurring player, M'Hael, who had been pretending to be new and thus unknowledgeable about PM safety. The issue with that is that he also claimed to be a disciple of me. Not that he was inspired by me, or had dubbed himself a disciple of my paranoid ways, but that he was specifically a disciple of me. I don't remember ever having a disciple, much less of having M'Hael as my disciple. I suspect that Mouse is a newer evil player who didn't know what PM safety was, or perhaps didn't know it by that specific term, and at some point learned it from a teammate. Then, to assuage my suspicions of him, he claimed to be a disciple of me to make me feel more positively inclined towards him, which almost worked >> In this scenario, Mouse would be using knowledge an older evil teammate is feeding him to make him seem like the real M'Hael. The concept of PM safety is that you don't claim to others, and they don't claim to you. The advantages of claiming don't outweigh the detriments, such as the chance that the player you're claiming to is evil and will use that knowledge in evil ways. When I played here, I was fairly well-known for preaching PM safety. Edited for grammar >>
  16. Mint Heron
    Thank you for confirming that I hadn't just completely forgotten the existence of a follower of mine, Mouse. I wanted confirmation from from you just to make sure. I have no followers. I checked, and I never gained any posthumously, either. Moreover, the M'Hael was Wilson's Herald. Unless there was a sudden shift of allegiances behind the scenes that I couldn't find, he's still Wilson's Herald today. So your claim of why you actually knew what PM safety was bogus. A recurring player could have known about it but would have no reason to lie about being my disciple, a position that has never been taken up. However, a Sympathiser could have reason to lie and claim that position to get on my good side.
  17. Mint Heron
    @Azure Mouse, oblige a member of the House of Paranoia, yeah? What nickname did I give you?
  18. Mint Heron
    Falcon's likely trying to provoke some last-minute vote-switches, which can be analysed to look at player relationships. The problem is that the Sympathisers would only have an interest in meddling to save a teammate or to troll. It's also likely to end up on a dead villager, because a tie only requires one vote to break. That would give us something to analyse, sure, but our numbers are so low that we can't afford to sacrifice a villager for more information. We're at the stage of the game where we should be acting on the information we have, not desperately trying to gather more. Elephant, would you mind responding to my vote on you? Perhaps by saying something to prove that you're voting because you think that's the best place to put your vote, and not just because you want to see a villager dead.
  19. Mint Heron
    Soddit. The lynch today is critical. Assuming a normal-size evil team, we're at 9:6 or 10:5. If a villager gets lynched today by the start of Day Eight we'll be at 7:6 or 8:5. @Emerald Falcon, while forcing a tie might net us some information, it's so damned late in the game that might not matter anymore. All it'll take for your plan to kill a villager is one Sympathiser online around rollover or one villager who decides that Player A is more suspicious than the others when they're really village. Then we'll be screwed. Right now the Sympathisers probably want to ensure a lynch on a villager, any villager. Then they'll be so close to parity that it'll take almost every single villager to lynch a Sympathiser, but they'll have Night kills and we won't. Because of that, I'm suspicious of anyone who has put a second or third vote on someone. Here's a vote tally: Vulture: Nolan (Dragonfly) <1>, Scorpion <1>, Nolan <3>, Kangaroo <1>, Falcon <1> Scorpion: Mouse <1>, Vanna (Toucan) <1>, Elephant <1>, Vulture <1> Crocodile: Nolan<2> Mouse: Kharsis (Heron) <1>, Ostrich <1>, Falcon <2> Vanna (Toucan): Chameleon <1>, Albatross <1> Falcon: Mouse <2> I don't like Elephant's vote, or Ostrich's. Falcon is also rather sus too. It's almost 4 AM and rollover's in two hours. Looks like I'm staying up today >> For storm's sake I'm not recording whatever happens in Toucan's post.
  20. Mint Heron
    Could you point out which posts sent off your gut alarm? The timing of this vote seems suspiciously bandwagon-like, and backed by bad reasoning. Both villagers and evil players could have good reasons to hide their experience levels, and while I'm not sure how the metagame is now with reputations, I know Wilson was very put off by how players responded to her rep when I was last here. That's what I go by on Mondays and Wednesdays But we had to split up the names somehow, and I lost the bet >>
  21. Mint Heron
    *Kashero. What's the point of Disciples if they won't even spell my name correctly? You addressed the PM safety and village read points, but you haven't explained the inconsistencies in your reasoning based on the Day Two Elyle (Swan) lynch. Why were your vote preferences Tuatara, Flamingo, and Vulture from most to least suspicious, when you previously claimed to have a village read on Squawk (Flamingo)?
  22. Mint Heron
    The reasoning in there kept bothering me, so I laid it out in the standard form for arguments: Eleven currently living players had a vote on at the end of D3. The vote tally at the end of D3, before vote manipulation, was this: [Added by me for context] It is unlikely that the entire Sympathiser team consists of the four currently living players who did not vote for the lynch. At least one Sympathiser must have voted in the lynch. Vulture voted in the lynch. If the Sympathisers were concerned or interested by the lynch, several of them would vote. [How do we know they had a specific interest in this lynch?] If the Sympathisers knew the roles of those up for the lynch, they would not be concerned enough to make a specific attempt to lynch those players. If a teammate was up for the lynch, the Sympathisers would have voted against it. [To make this premise apply to the conclusion, we need a premise that says that a teammate was up for the lynch. We don't know if that is true.] All of the other potential lynchees were villagers. Vulture is still alive. ∴ Vulture is a Sympathiser. This argument hinges around the idea that the Sympathisers must have manipulated the lynch to save a teammate, but we cannot assume that happened. The Sympathisers might have manipulated the lynch to save a teammate. They also might not have manipulated the lynch to save a teammate. It is possible for all of the premises to be true without making the conclusion true, so the argument is invalid. It's possible that Vulture is a Sympathiser, but this argument is a terrible reason to lynch him.
  23. Mint Heron
    Azure Mouse's activity has been consistently low, which is consistent with his claims of being busy IRL. On Day Two, he said he had a village read on Elyle (Swan) and Squawk (Flamingo), both of which we know now are correct. After the Elyle lynch, he said that there had to be "something sus" with the bandwagon. The way it's said seems like an attempt to manipulate, but a later post discussing the lynch made me feel that he was thinking critically about it. Then, during Day Three, he says that he would "go with a vote on Tuatara over Flamingo, and a vote on Flamingo over Vulture", which isn't quite consistent with his trust of Squawk. The rest of the post is suspiciously noncommital. Then he puts a vote on Jai (Beagle), for something that he supposedly said he saw the reasoning of after Jai explained the reason of the swing away from Flamingo. On Day Four, he started posting his suspicions, which (supposedly) heralds the start of his increased activity. He gives out a chart of reads, which is often repeated, but there seem to be very few changes from chart to chart, which makes Mouse look far more active than he actually is. Another weird thing is that around Night Six, Mouse was familiar enough with the concept of PM safety to clarify something I said, despite being unfamiliar enough with it Day One to ask what it was. Somehow, even though Jai gave the wrong explanation of why one should follow PM safety, Mouse was able to give the right one six Days later. I know that this is very small, but it's possible that Mouse learned this from a Sympathiser teammate. On top of that, he has a village read on me, which frankly is a little suspicious since I don't feel that I've done anything really worth a village read this game. That, combined with some of Mouse's other discrepancies, is enough for a vote. Mouse.
  24. Mint Heron
    That night, Kharsis slept peacefully, dreaming of other other lands and eras. - A hot mug lay in Kharsis’s hands, filled with traditional Rennan tea. He sat in a large plush armchair, with a stuffing far fluffier than any he had ever felt. He pushed down on one of the arms experimentally, then relaxed fully into his chair. A lighteyes man sat in front of him in another armchair, with a spear propped up against it. “Indulge an old man and answer me this, will you? A riddle, for old time’s sake.” “Yeah, why not,” Kharsis said with a shrug. “Tell me, what is like a wall, a rope, and a handfan all at once?” the man asked. For Kharsis, who had grown up listening to the village storyteller, the answer was easy enough. “Is this about the elephant story? The one with the blind men who can only feel a certain part of it and keep arguing over what an elephant is?” The man smiled encouragingly. “So it is an elephant,” Kharsis said. “That’s my answer.” “An elephant, and often more,” the stranger confirmed. “A thing with multiple aspects, most of which are disparate and seemingly unconnected. The truth, if you want to be metaphorical about it.” “I’ve always wondered why the blind men never got together and all felt the entire elephant,” Kharsis said. “It would’ve put an end to the whole debate.” “Ah,” the stranger said. “There’s hope for you yet.” He looked at Kharsis intently. “You know, of course, what will happen if you visit the inn tomorrow.” It was not a question. The abrupt topic change startled Kharsis. He knew what the man was asking, but he was not sure if he wanted to commit himself yet. He fingered the arms of his own plush armchair as he thought, stalling for time. “Yes,” Kharsis finally said, hesitantly. “Are you sure?” the man asked. “Yes,” Kharsis said, this time more confidently. “I’m done running away from my problems.” “To answer the call, regardless of the cost...it is an act of great courage.” The man sighed. “I hope you will be more successful than the rest. Alámene.” Kharsis drank from his mug, as if it was a toast. It felt appropriate, in ways he couldn’t describe. But by the time he lowered his mug, the strange man in front of him was gone, spear and all. All that remained was an empty plush armchair, the mirror to his own. - He woke to rays of sunlight shining in his face, almost expecting to feel something much softer under his back. Had he dreamed something while asleep? He couldn’t quite remember.
  25. Mint Heron
    Orlok has confirmed that there are no secret roles in this game. My reads, off the top of my head: 1. Scorpion - keep mixing him up with Axolotl, but otherwise null2. Mouse - frankly his village read of me is kanda sus, as I haven't done a lot of villagery things this game, worth a vote tomorrow3. Vulture - slight village lean, feel better about him after the way he responded to my vote about him4. Falcon - disengaged from the game, could be a Sympathiser5. Ostrich - null6. Nolan (Dragonfly) - prolly village, but none of the kills have hit drivers of discussion. If there's a Sympathiser among the actives I feel that it could be him.7. Albatross - null, worth a closer look8. Crocodile - null9. Kharsis (Heron) - obs village 10. Squawk (Flamingo) - village read, her mistakes aren't consistent with what someone with the support of a doc would make and she feels like she's genuinely attempting to find the Sympathisers11. Chameleon - null, I barely know he exists12. Zebra - trying, if not that active, village lean13. Kangaroo - nullish, maybe village14. Elephant - disengaged from game, null15. Vanna (Toucan) - null? Kinda weird I have no opinion on her since she's been posting analysis of players, worth another look16. Axolotl - I'm inclined to trust him, if only because he's attracting attention to himself in a suicidal way for a Sympathiser with his new vote system. Could be more helpful to the village though It's 3AM for me, so don't expect much out of me for a while until lunch >>
×
×
  • Create New...