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Violet Axolotl

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  1. Violet Axolotl
    It is even odds between the two shards which would have invested in Yolen, but I know that it was one of those two. Odium seems more likely as their win condition likely involves them using their kill ability which would be easier to use if it isn’t able to be prevented. @zebra If you look closer, it is not only Alvron that I have copied.
  2. Violet Axolotl
    Information I am privy to suggests Devotion or Odium made this investment. Making oneself unable to be blokced seems useful for a role with the most powerful ability to kill. I’m not a supporter of Yolen-making
  3. Violet Axolotl
    Do individuals count as factions or do they not? That is the question which I have been considering. @Seonid @A Joe in the Bush
  4. Violet Axolotl
    "BUTTONS!" The sudden voice coming from nowhere jerks several heads around as the gathered companions search for the owner of the voice. A woman covered in a dusty travelers cloak emerges from a shadowed alcove. "The stars have aligned. The mist whispers to me. A little piece of ginger glass!" ____ Sorry I didnt explain it well. Just the switch to toucan seemed really sudden to me. I see that the original reasoning for going on toucan makes sense enough that I believe someone would be suspicious for that. I don’t know if it makes enough sense for a lynch to start though. I guess you probably were aggressive on them at least partially to save yourself which makes a bit more sense now that I think about it.
  5. Violet Axolotl
    Well then, how about we start betting. I will bet 2 custom shards that at least half the factions will be dead by the beginning of phase 3. "Sadly, Zebra has already demonstrated their lack of strength. Slaughter cannot be avoided, so the scholar's inclinations towards aggressive actions are necessary." Vioax whispered this into the ear of the Noble next to her. She hadn't the slightest idea of who they were, but 1 ear was as good as another. "Sentence him to death, lest his hypocrisy infect others. Show everyone what happens to do gooders." Speaking of do gooders, Lord Quadras was supposed to be here. If he didn't show up soon, the madman Sheonir would end up trusted. Vioax sidled away from the noble, ending up behind Orlim. She adressed the crowd of nobles. "Sins such as this man possess should not be rewarded. Smelt down the key to power before you give it away Orlim." Savagery was a good trait to have, Vioax was willing to admit, but Lord Sheonir had far too much of it. Simply giving him power would surely be wasted on one already powerful. So to Lord Quadras, a friend of a friend and more besides went her trust and voice. "So many stories tell of the patience and quick thinking of Lord Quadras, let him be listened to." Zebra
  6. Violet Axolotl
    “My breath to you, my breath become yours,” The woman whispered urgently. Breath left him, and entered Vioax. The room popped into even more color than it had before. She had probably just achieved 6th heightening. “Now go.” The woman was shaking, terrified. Vioax turned to leave, and then stopped. “If you go to Urithiru, you could find safety.” The woman pulled out a gun. “I’ll be safe as soon as you leave.” So Vioax left. - - - Hallendren truly was beautiful. Vioax gazed on the city from above, having visited all three addresses. All three families had been terrified. This woman was cruel, and only he had the ability to stop him. She had made his decision. She would not awaken the lightning. She was going to take Lelimi down. He would be on Roshar, of course. The realms were closest together there. Stryl came up to her. “Perhaps we should run.” Vioax shook his head. “I was given this gift for a reason. I was here for a reason. I need to stop him. But I can’t let him hurt anyone. So I need to find him.” She scrunched his face, thoughtful. “Perhaps the spren will know more.” Stryl vined her way onto Vioax, because it was harder for her to keep up now. And then with a CRACK, Vioax left. A blur of color was all one could see. ~~~ I love Nalthis. Im excited to be there. ~~ Gecjo makes a good point that if we got a lucky coordination and the factions survived it would look like multiple could win, which could narrow down our options. But I don’t know if we want to lynch a random person to we’ll need to some heavy analysis this round of we want to get the factions straightened off. I think I’ve only played one faction game before, and that was the roshar one. I don’t remember any strategies though, anyone want to pipe in on that?
  7. Violet Axolotl
    Vioax was still somewhat annoyed that she hadn't been the one to take over the cosmere. How could the shards pass up such an opportunity? She was the perfect candidate for this. When she was tapped to join the worldhoppers, she was somewhat mollified. At least someone had recognized her greatness. ~~ So, right now, I believe there is no elim...and if we manage to kill other factions, they can survive and look like another role. I'm not sure if this means we should just keep killing people as we find their alliances...has anyone else been through a game like this and is able to weigh in? Also, this is my first faction game, but it seems obvious that we can't leave anyone as trustworthy except our team. I was about to ask what time zone 1:00 represented, but it looks like that was answered in the game thread - MST. Good to know.
  8. Violet Axolotl
    The cosmere is brutal these days...I feel some people have been burned by neutral roles recently...
  9. Violet Axolotl
    Greetings Survival. Welcome to the game.
  10. Violet Axolotl
    At this point there’s really not much to say other then that as in most Shard games, the most important roles are going to be the Shards and how they invest(dominion, feel free ), followed closely by the Feruchemist and voidbringer (excluding of course any secrets I don’t know). The vote manip will be likely be an interesting thing to analyze, as within a few cycles they could change hands, assuming that people are using it consistently. I am also wanting to be put into pms, if anyone wants to put me in one.
  11. Violet Axolotl
    Just checking in. I’ll be back later to read more...
  12. Violet Axolotl
    Well done Elims. A very well played game.
  13. Violet Axolotl
    Nah. Not this late in the cycle.
  14. Violet Axolotl
    Looks like it.
  15. Violet Axolotl
    Given there is 19 minutes left, I highly doubt it for this cycle.
  16. Violet Axolotl
    My apologizes, I meant to post much earlier but got caught up in things. Seeing how everyone wants to know of my system and since it didn't work, I might as well make the reveal. Profiles! Yep, I used profiles. And the reason I couldn't reveal this was because it would reveal me as ... Alv. Yes, the Axo you love to be suspicious of is none other than the great Alv. And yes, I know last cycle I said I wasn't Vron and that is true. I am Alv. Only Aonar called me Vron and he hasn't done it in a while. (I do miss that by the way Aonar. It was unique to you and made you stand out.) Now then, on to the system. What I did is go through my profiles and collect every LG Elim stat. How often they would post, if they voted on a fellow Elim, how many votes they made per cycle, their post to vote ratio, everything. I then took the average number of each to create a typical LG Elim profile template. Then I took all the stats for players this game and compared them to the template. Weasel was the closest match. A 87% match in fact. As such, I felt he was the best bet for Elimness. I do still think Mouse is evil even if my profile template isn't as accurate as I would like.
  17. Violet Axolotl
    If we do have any Village Windrunners, please protect Dragonfly. Their vote manipulations is really the only chance that we can survive the next days lynch since it appears that the Elims have their own Bondsmith.
  18. Violet Axolotl
    No I'm not Vron. But I do have need for Hael's head, for reasons.
  19. Violet Axolotl
    Mouse is Hael?? Dibs on his head!
  20. Violet Axolotl
    Sorry folks. I've had an insane time trying to get online lately. Seeing as my system was/is completely screwed, I don't mind letting the RNG decide the lynch. So, Mouse. I believe that makes it a three way tie again. Although, I am secretly hoping that Mouse gets lynched as I still have some hope that my system redeems itself.
  21. Violet Axolotl
    I think you mean 10:6 not 11:6. Which does alter your scenario a bit. Assuming the Elims kill this night, which is all but guaranteed given our wonderful track record of protection, then Day 7 starts with 9:6. With the current lack of voting, they could control the lynch with little effort. 8:6. Another dies N7, 7:6. Game is all but over. We either NEED to lynch an Elim tomorrow or hope there is only 5 of them. And if they have a Worldhopper that pulls Duskbringer either this night or the next, we are finished. And yes, I can see them having a Worldhopper with 6 members. I seem to recall a game where most of the power roles were all Village including all the protection so if something similar happened then them having a Worldhopper would be standard.
  22. Violet Axolotl
    How? What? Huh? I used 'likely' for the simple fact that I didn't add myself to the system. I estimated where it would place me given what I knew of how it worked. And of course there is an objective way to measure the reads. That is part of any process for any system. You put in what you think is relevant or useful rather than everything as that would clog the system with useless information. Yes, my voting system was way off. I readily admit that. But I did not accuse you of "leading a lynch on an Elsecaller on the premise that I somehow knew they were an Elsecaller, while bringing up no evidence to support their claim." What I did was say that if Weasel was an Elim Elsecaller that I would suspect you more than I currently do given that it's a fairly common tactic to lynch a Elim Thug near the end game to give the Elims two free night cycles to wipe out the Village. And I did not "completely ignoring that the same argument could be applied to them." as I said later on when asked where I would be in my system that I would also go up in suspicion if Weasel was an Elim. The reason I would go up would've been for the exact same reason you would've gone up. Just because I don't straight out say something, does not mean I am ignoring it. I'm simply glossing over it.
  23. Violet Axolotl
    It would likely list me as 37% chance of being evil. It would also go up if Weasel flips Elim to about 48-51%.
  24. Violet Axolotl
    What game was this? It sounds like a great read. 0% of course. I know I'm Village so I didn't add my stats into the system. And I suppose no Elim has ever voted on another Elim ever? I fully expect at least one Elim to be involved in that lynch. You, Dragonfly, are the leading candidate as placing the first vote on a thug type role is the thing I would expect an Elim to do. Yes, you were ninjaed by me but that doesn't change the fact that you were planning on being the first one to vote on them. As for why more players rise in suspiciousness if Weasel is Elim, I did say Weasel is my test case so there is bound to be some anomalies. Although I do admit that I may have simplified the percentages to give you the results you requested. It's a work in progress.
  25. Violet Axolotl
    Very well. Note that it is just as pertains to Weasel. I have been concentrating mostly on the three I named so it's not all that accurate yet. Base Elim % Weasel Elim Weasel Village Albatross 39% 39% 42% Chameleon 49% 56% 49% Crocodile 58% 61% 56% Dragonfly 46% 61% 39% Elephant 61% 63% 61% Falcon 59% 59% 55% Flamingo 50% 64% 49% Heron 51% 45% 52% Kangaroo 48% 52% 48% Mouse 64% 79% 58% Ostrich 59% 61% 55% Scorpion 49% 51% 44% Toucan 45% 35% 45% Vulture 33% 33% 33% Weasel 87% N/A N/A Zebra 66% 56% 81%
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