Fuchsia Ostrich

I'mma PoE this. Remaining players - [Scorpion, Mouse, Penguin, Ostrich, Dragonfly, Albatross, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Rhino, Zebra, Meerkat, Elephant, Axolotl] (14) Removing 100% or close to 100% village - [Scorpion, Mouse, Penguin, Ostrich, Dragonfly, Albatross, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Rhino, Zebra, Meerkat, Elephant, Axolotl] (11) Removing Lurchers and Thugs - [Scorpion, Mouse, Penguin, Ostrich, Dragonfly, Albatross, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Rhino, Zebra, Meerkat, Elephant, Axolotl] (8) This is where it gets a little tough to eliminate people, I'll remove struckthrough names for convenience - [Scorpion, Mouse, Dragonfly, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Elephant, Axolotl] (8) Removing Scorpion because of other efforts to protect Gorilla in C1, it's counter-productive to the elim teams effort to bus a teammate in D1. Removing Axolotl because they kept bringing up LG79 Sart lynch as a proof to vote out Chameleon and Cham flipped village, giving us - [Scorpion, Mouse, Dragonfly, Dingo, Heron, Flamingo, Elephant, Axolotl] (6) I'm 100% sure our final elims are in the Final Eight and about 90% sure they are in Final Six. Going further, I'm going to remove Dragonfly because of their vote vote to tip the Beagle to ahead of others last cycle. After 3 consecutive cycles elim death, elims would want to protect their most important asset role-wise. Unless it's an attempt to deepwolf, there's no need for a semi-active elim to vote on Beagle at that point in time. Also removing Dingo due to complete non-intervention policy when elims are in danger, we have our Final Four - [Mouse, Heron, Flamingo, Elephant] (4) IF we have to eliminate further, I'd remove Elephant citing they are too inactive to be an elim, we get a tidy set of - [Mouse, Flamingo, Heron] Flamingo had bad D1-D2, good D3-D4, unsure what to make of their D5 [could be bus], bad D6 ugh. Heron's D6 and as a result, D5 look very confusing. Mouse just sieves through the PoE and the only hint that they could be village is their 3rd vote on Cham during D3. Not so confident in the Final Three, but quite confident with Final Six.

Didn't Heron already claim to be a Smoker?

Dude, I can't even make optimal guesses anymore, this elim team has done so many unconventional things >>

Iguana would be like "Are you a police force in an action movie?"

D2 re-read here we goo - Leaving out all the Beagle stuff because my thoughts are the same as the conclusions drawn from Penguin above and I agree with her so I'd just be repeating her thoughts. Quote below here is from Hyena's post about Albatross' survival - Here, he implies anyone pushing on Alb is creating a distraction and makes Penguin look bad, I get the feeling like he's setting Penguin up for suspicious later and there are hints of his TMI knowledge that Alb might be village because that's how Penguin would look suspicious of creating a distraction. As in, only way for Penguin to look bad is if Alb flips v. Above the third vote on Albatross and the post doesn't feel distancey in any way. In fact it looks like Gorilla is trying to find any kind of reasoning to vote on Albatross, so very not E/E vibe from this, Albatross feels more and more likely to be village. Cham's read list in D2 - Pattern dictates at least one elim in the group of [Melon Dingo, Mint Heron, Oxblood Beagle, Plum Rhinoceros, Sapphire Elephant] (pattern being placing at least one elim in each tier except the extreme tiers) I'm also inclined to deduce another one in the mild elim tier. After leaving out my trusted reads from the tier, I'm left with the group of [Mouse, Dragonfly]. I did find something on Beagle that Penguin missed out and I think it's pretty big - Particularly - They had initially voted for me but did not recall exactly whom they voted for so they retracted both Octo/Ostrich. Guess who mentioned killing Octopus was an accident due to confusion between Octo/Ostrich and that they intended to kill me? That's right, it was Hyena. This similarity of confusion between Octopus and Ostrich for both Hyena AND Beagle is the biggest indication so Beagle's evil alignment to me. [Rhinoceros] Bah, some Flamingo defence here by Cham. Flamingo is the most unsure village read I have of now. I really want to trust Flamingo because everything including and post-D3 is beautifully village but everything before is at the opposite end of the spectrum. Bah. Also, some Alb sus here, which, again, keeps increasing Alb vil points. Flamingo, c'mon -.- Focusing on reads from this Hyena post - Makes me very much want to read elim on Azure Mouse due to pattern on neutral reads here [pattern being all neutral+ being village which could imply all neutral- being evil] Sigh, I'd reallly love to know how Flamingo turned 180 on Gorilla. The 180 from a few posts before the end of D2 to a few posts after the beginning of N2. Annd I'm at the end of N2 and I almost accidentally clicked on the bookmarks at the top of the browser so I'll take it as a sign to hit send and continue from D3 later.

Okay I'm sort of confused as to whom to go next , there's 15 players left so - Village - Ostrich, Meerkat, Penguin, Axolotl, Zebra, Scorpion, Flamingo Remaining - Heron, Beagle, Elephant, Dingo, Rhino, Albatross, Dragonfly, Mouse Arguments for V in Remaining pile - Heron - Insistence on E!Meerkat even after the gambit reveal Beagle - NULL Elephant - Way too inactive to be an elim/NULL Dingo - Non-Intervention when elim teammates in danger Rhino - NULL Albatross - Very quick vote on Meerkat on seeing the Tineye message, Gorilla's votes on them during danger Dragonfly - NULL Mouse - NULL Arguments for E in the Remaining pile - Heron - Only voting in side trains, avoiding main train discussion Beagle - Voting pattern Elephant - Asking for PMs to appear to be involved and not follow through Dingo - Non-Intervention [yes same reason to both V and E argument ] Rhino - Survived a kill, voted for Falcon when Gorilla train was coming up Albatross - Survived a kill, voting pattern Dragonfly - Sort of meta out of game reason being the GMs replaced Dragonfly and Mouse, ahead of Toucan Mouse - Same as above ^ From this, Albatross and Rhino are the standouts for me, but there's a stronger case for v!Albatross than v!Rhino [which is nothing]. I do feel like it's time we get to know the alignment for the 'attacked but survived' players because we have 2 Lurchers and 1 Thug basically confirmed village [Falcon and the Lurcher in Meerkat claims to be in contact with because they clearly saved him, Thug being Toucan], so Plum Rhinoceros Edit: To get some clarity, @Plum Rhinoceros, what are you? Thug who survived due to double life? Lurcher self-protecting?

Re-read D1 and N1 and it's safe it say there's a lot of stuff that's sets off red flags about Pearl Chameleon. Penguin makes a good case for Cham as well. Here's a quote from Hyena, the very first read list, in which he seems to want to tie Crocodile to Pearl [when Pearl was in the lead] possible to sow the seeds of e!Pearl leads e!Crocodile The entire time Chameleon is in the lead with 3 votes, Hyena is very very hedgy about them, refusing to change their vote after they dropped in initially on Scorp. Link here shows Chameleon avoids voting for Gorilla here even in self defense with an out-of-nowhere vote on Swan. Go through the entire page here, the whole forgetting to post a reason for the vote ["oh man i totally forgot to give suspicion"] sounds very performative and when asked to give a reason, they just repeat what was previously given by other players [particularly Beagle's reasoning]. Their retraction after all the opposition to Swan's voting was also less than convincing. Link below shows Gorilla voting Swan ahead of Cham and Hyena, and we see Chameleon and Gorilla [and Hyena] actively avoid voting on each other. Quote here from Chameleon again. Vote manipulation is what saved both Gorilla and Iguana. Look at the difference in the inferences - from "not a fan of vote manipulation that saved them" for Iguana to "confused where the suspicion on them comes from" for Gorilla. Some other thoughts - Scorpion is village, sorry. Not willing to entertain bus debates [and yelling my own paranoia away], this is a team that looks like it's extremely protective of each other [at least in D1] - even discounting Cham's alignment, we have Gorilla and Hyena trying to protect each other. I really don't think Scorpion would undo all that and bus in the very first cycle. Even discounting the last minute vote, their interaction with Hyena is very much does not feel e/e. Flamingo looks bad enough in D1-N1 that I'll have to reconsider if Hyena's cw push on them in D3 was performative. Axl looks to be village as well. Really don't know what to make of Dingo's non-intervention. Either scared to mark themselves as the vote to be responsible for a villager's death or just plain villagery nonchalance. Coming to Magenta Albatross, looking back, it seems that Hyena was the first to mention they seem like a new player which makes me hmmm but other posts and their thread situation are much much better than Chameleon's. Edit: yikes 2 more votes on Chameleon as I typed up this post? That makes it seven to two, not sure what to make of this hmmmm

Yes, finally got it thanks xD And yeah, if we do need to go there [possibility of e!Coinshot] it's a bit later in the game when we have more evidence, and not as early as now.

Okay I'm still confused about your thoughts smh. How does possibility of e!Seeker link with the increase in possibility of e!Coinshot?

Are you wondering why elims went for Swan instead of Penguin? Or are you asking why they went for Swan instead of you? Because I think it's the simplest explanation, that Swan's the next highest trusted player after you. And even if they did think you were bluffing about Lurcher#1's targets, there is still Falcon's Lurch to worry about, because they knew she was village. I don't think there was any communication about Falcon's Lurch but I think it's fair to assume that they thought she'd target you. So, Occam's Razor and all, it's likely they wanted to avoid a Lurched attack and went for the 2nd highest trusted read.

Okay I was planning on doing a full re-read before posting and deciding on a vote but just realized something to reply to - I don't think Elims have a Seeker because Hyena said he'd have loved to play longer with Vulture and the only reason they killed him because he suspected VUlture was a Mistborn. The tone he said it was casual too, so don't think it was misleading and if they had a Seeker, it's more likely they'd have scanned to see his role.

My tier list in the order of descending order of "I wanna look at these people" - [Scorp, Cham, Alb, Dingo] [Heron, Elephant, Axl] [Mouse, Dragonfly, Zebra, Rhino] [Flamingo, Beagle] [Swan, Penguin, Meerkat]

hmmm also begets the question as to why hyena chose falcon particularly to tie themselves to. if falcon is vil, then falcon as gambit target seems extremely random.

The thing is you didn't mention none of this last cycle, when they because the subject of discussion. None of your doubts or distrusts or any of such kind. Keeping it close to your chest is okay, but once they become the topic of the elimination, surely you'd feel compelled to reveal these doubts? You even defended them at some points.

You don't think reasons stated not related to ID are good enough for the exe? Both are 2 unrelated points to every other point I made in my post.

Yeah, I debated not mentioning the 4th and 5th points - but seeing as Falcon herself going - "if you know me, you know me doing X or Y is village for me" so if she can use the identity argument to try to prove she's village, I thought it's fair game for me to use it to mention my suspicions. Sorry, I know it still feels against the spirit of the game, but those are my personal suspicions, and I can't just... not state them right?

Also would love to know why Falcon did not seem to hesitate to trust a Seeker scan? Falcon is better than to blindly believe someone who scanned them is village. There is no progression of Falcon's trust on Hyena at all. If I was a Lurcher and an alignment-unknown Mistborn claimed to have scanned me as Lurcher, my first thought would be to protect myself because there's a possibility that the Mistborn could be an elim. Here, she has no concerns for personal safety and Lurches Azure instead. Furthermore she believes in the alignment-unknown Mistborn's claim to protect here, which not withstanding the weirdness Penguin mentioned ["Lurching the Lurcher" as opposed to Lurcher Lurching self and Hyena going for someone else], the sheer lack of concern for personal safety is baffling here, because all things points to Falcon believing alignment-unknown Hyena's words to protect her. Players who have played Mat's Lord Ruler [MR46?] game will remember Falcon wanting to vote out Aman during D1, but ended up getting voted out because she did not want to vote on a returned player, and then Aman flipped elim and she regretted that decision quite badly. Such a player would be very wary of Aman's Seeker claim and would be very cautious of trusting them. Players who have played the last Tyrian game [LG74] will remember Falcon was a member of the evil team whose primary tactic was to get trusted by villagers by using the Seeker scan on them, mainly by Seeker!Fifth. Now, as an elim who has won using that tactic, v!Falcon be naturally more cautious to similar Seeker attempts made against her to dupe her in the process. But here, we see no such alarmness or doubt against this move. No suspicion at all against the Seeker claim, which - especially from the context of being on the LG74 evil team - is very very weird. One of my main points being this - THERE IS NO WAY A VILLAGE LURCHER BLINDLY TRUSTS A RANDOM MISTBORN, WHO KNOWS THEY ARE VILLAGE LURCHER, TO PROTECT THEM AND THEN MAKE A DECISION NOT TO PROTECT THEMSELF.

Hi, I wasn't here for all the drama as I dipped for the night because of a headache. So I've got few things to say Hyena, I don't know if this was an attempt at AtE but if you genuinely felt this way during the game, then I'm sorry. All arguments made (at least by me, personally - but also I don't think Meerkat or Vulture did this too) have not been made taking into consideration of your reputation. Reputation calls caution, yes, but always preceded by facts and thread activity. We really don't do threat-eliminations or threat kills anymore. Kel [not Kas, mind you ] has been back here for a while now and despite a reputation of being a very good villager, almost always makes it to C3 or later. Really sorry if you felt you were being voted out because of your reputation. This is not true because the main argument against him was D3 voting actions and thread behavior [and from my end, D2 actions as well wrt Gorilla and Iguana]. The claimed scan on you [and the Lurch on him] supports the above arguments and not the driving force behind them. My bad xD Sorry Hyena, but my logic was more focused that bussing becoming such a norm nowadays that it's likely to be more looked at than defending an elim. See a large train on red flip? Immediately assume there are a few buses on it - which is not a bad assumption but elims can use this to defend teammates and that'd be looked at not as suspiciously as the bus itself. In fact, you by yourself theorized that you "wouldn't be surprised if 3 of the elims" are on the Gorilla train. Normal to assume the bus, less common to assume strong defense as an action of elim teammate. What may seem as a reputational backed statement [well, maybe it was just slightly reputational because it still takes a good elim to take advantage of the fact ] was my take on buses being suspected as the norm now.

Easy, boy - relax xD Edit - er gif not loading smh Edit 2 -

Brilliant. I was waiting for this because 100%, attacking me here is the elim move, wrt the events occurred till now, and I'll explain why. Me, Vulture and Meerkat were the ones [actually, the only ones] to drive a discussion on you. So now you're in a situation where you're damned if you do, damned if you don't situation wherein if you kill one us, it says that we may be right, but if you don't kill one of us, discussion will only grow hotter. Among the three of us, Vulture would be the considered as the most unbudgeable from his position [or atleast, perceived as such from your team] so he had to go [his vote goes and so does his voice]. Hyena cannot make a case against lower-actives as an alternative to his cw, that would just be weak. The strongest argument to be made will be against a person suspecting you - but it cannot be Meerkat because Meerkat is trusted top read [also you have a history with Meerkat, which you can use to try to convince him, but you cannot use that because we don't have that connection] so that leaves you with me. Kill Vulture, convince Meerkat, attack Ostrich. Logically - I'm the best option of a counter wagon for an elim, and the fact that you followed the exact same path is telling.

Because the discrediting didn't end up working xD Again, noting the deflection [why would I do this?] and not an explanation for the contradiction.

Si senorita mi thinks that was an attempt to discredit Vulture.

@Emerald Falcon, hi - here I bring forth the case where you try to invalidate Vulture's reasoning by false statements and contradict yourself multiple times - Not including the fact that the stuff about ego is trying to invalidate his suspicion - he was right about Gorilla. He made a case for both of you so this reasoning doesn't gold at all because he ended up being right about Gorilla. Again, he wasn't completely wrong as he was right about Gorilla, AND he actually calls on the possibility of you both as E/E in that very post itself, NOT in retrospect after Gorilla flipped. Contradiction : Above, you call Amber as a villager who hasn't been right yet and here you say Vulture did have more reasoning and was correct about Gorilla. Emotional appeal by being sarcastically self-deprecating. @Charcoal Hyena hi, Hey hey hey, you're only human, remember? You're not infallible Sometimes you try out something and it doesn't work out, don't worry

And with the amount of suspicion on you, no village Lurcher should have protected you. And the fact that Vulture was killed. Charcoal Hyena

Self-vote cancel subtracts the Rioted vote added.