Amethyst Scorpion

How conveniently said

Which is why I think you're lock village

e!you is never a Thug, remember, that's the entire point of this conversation Not enough to change my read, obviously. I read Vulture as village for awhile as well and had major cold feet about switching over to them, though I did eventually do it. Do you have any reason to add to your gut feeling?

I would call it a net positive, but you're still PoE. And I don't know if I believe that you're new. At least, if you are, this is one heck of an impressive start :P. Working on calc rn but here's the quick version off the top of my head Called out the spiked/referenced the elim kill in a villagery way early D1 Passed Cham's fakeclaim reaction test Passed Ostrich's fakeclaim reaction test (this is the bigger one for me-- legitimately apologetic posting and offering a draw reads extremely sincere and very village) Stellar vibes all around, at least for me, consistent through PMs I said I'd quit SE if this read is wrong so it'd sure better be right (not a reason but w/e)

I'll believe it when I see it Ngl if the game ends with e!you winning the coinflip against v!Penguin in the ultimate ironic culmination of your Penguin tunnel I won't even be mad I don't know. I mean, the correct answer is "I analyze the previous cycles" but that's unsatisfactory because it's also what inactive elim you does when you see that we're killing all the inactives. The truth is, I'm sure enough that Zebra, Beagle, Cham, and Lion are all village that I don't feel the need to deep back read. We have enough time and enough current thread to work with what we've got. Looking specifically at active players from D1 and finding elims seems like confbias to me.

Ah, I see. I guess at this point I'm inclined to trust the Thug claim as a village one existing makes sense on a distro level. Plus, Cham claimed very early on, and has since shown some inability to convincingly fakeclaim something, so I doubt e!NotThug!them has kept this up Which is what? No. Not playing the game until people try to kill you is bad. Finding interesting posts is something everyone should do, not just people under pressure. That's the weird part. It doesn't help that your conclusions align with what most of us think is the evil mindset. It doesn't mean you're wrong and we're right, obviously, but that's where the call for the kill came from. But if it makes you feel any better, I'm pretty sure you were going to be the next kill anyway :P. I would assume 5 given the player count, existence of an e!Thug, and the distro that we've seen so far.

Ah yes And I am a village Villager (What did you mean by this lol) The chance that the elims have two Thugs in this distro are approximately zero percent, so Cham is as cleared as anyone can be.

Do you have a reason to vote there?

Swan would I’d throw Alb on that list but I think I’d be getting ahead of myself

No no I’m just dumb My entire case Lol I don’t really. Like say everyone agrees and a draw is made. Then what? I guess they could rationalize that Ostrich wouldn’t allow it as he’s village, but I definitely wouldn’t risk suggesting it as elim

You should be. That should be a thing. But anyway.

You can submit actions without posting as far as I know. Or wait was the manip I’m thinking of just Lion lol

Was Vulture not saved by Tuatara’s manip that very exe? I could be badly misremembering what happened but I thought that was right. That fits imo. They froze at the end earlier, they froze at the end last night. I already said that e!me at EoD probably doesn’t change the kill if it’s already on Vulture so it’s not surprising to me that e!Alb wouldn’t.

Their only follow-up is this (which was technically posted after the cycle closed, lol) and to me looks like they’re setting up a Cham vote over Vulture. At the very least it’s noncommittal and for someone who implies they want to vote they sure don’t seem in a hurry to do so. Sort of adds to my read that Alb is allergic to doing anything that would show they have TMI, eg voting Cham over Vulture or commenting on Ostrich’s fakeclaim, plus e!Alb knows Tuatara can riot in that situation as well as in the four way tie so it makes sense they’re not overly concerned. Edit: Actually reading that Alb post again I think they did let some TMI slip through when considering worlds. They never mentioned e!Thug!Cham but did mention e!Thug!Vulture.

Shenanigans in general at this point :P. Figured that out, yeah. That I don’t actually mind. Our paranoia of each other was boiling over. Maybe. I think e!me freezes there and keeps the kill. Granted, I don’t e!me shoots you in the first place, but w/e First thing: Lion mentioned that the elims might keep Zebra alive based on his shot list. I think the inverse also can be true here, so we should look at the early kill suggestions/PoEs as hits. This might not be super helpful as the entire player list was suggested at one point or another, but it’s worth checking. Second thing: Who asked Iguana to claim their actions? Kanga? That’s suspicious. Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. Elim tactic I like very much :3 Basically just “yes, but—“ing everything anyone says to keep PoEs and the like as open as possible, like a malicious devil’s advocate maybe?

EDIT: OH no I thought Zebra did try to kill himself lol Did he not >>

Because I’m a conventional player who thinks that was a bad idea. I can explain why it was a bad idea but I don’t think that would help.

I guess you got your answer >> You guys should really stop putting your lives on the line for gambits but at least Zebra actually survived this time. Alb

Dude lying about a lurch does not mean you’re evil

I kinda v read you now because you claimed Lurcher Or at least that’s a piece of information informing my recent post I didn’t have before. If that’s what you mean. I think you’d be a useful slot to flip because of how polarizing you’ve been and I can understand a lot of the e cases I’ve seen (like on a base level I agree with Beagle’s and Lion’s suspicion of your reaction to Ostrich and I don’t like you suddenly flipping on me when other people have begun to do the same) but I do like your vibes and the metacase is real so I’m at a solid ??? Like if Zebra wants to clear you out I honestly wouldn’t complain ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Fair, but everyone else’s failure to catch on tilted me and I put an absurd amount of thought into Lion’s question so I wanted to give it an absurd answer. A small part of it is my pride wanting to prove how right I was as well, honestly. I mean… yes, but no? You can’t honestly prefer to have an exlo with you, Swan, and Croc to having an exlo with you, me, and Iguana. I mean maybe you do but I sure don’t :P. So the only compelling/possible teams are those with active players? It would be nice to know we’ve killed all the filler people but there’s no way to know that. But to answer your question, my best guess is Alb and Croc, the latter because I have a reason to village read other people. If you shoot anywhere in my PoE I’d be satisfied though because I don’t actually have a reason to e read Croc. But shooting outside of my PoE (or any serious PoE) is unnecessary deepwolf hunting at this stage.

Later is now, apparently. Going player-by-player: Cham: Initial reaction: "You claiming Elim mistborn with bad luck?" followed up by "[vote]Ostrich I guess?" From here on out Cham radiates major Aftermath Energy (a term I just made up, but what I mean is that Cham's interactions with Ostrich feel exactly like the vibes of after the game is over and we're all just chatting in thread, which to me heavily indicates v!Cham) Iguana: Initial reaction: "Haha what" followed up by "Haha what ????" Asks about jesters as well as expresses doubt wrt Ostrich being solo (but not to the validity of the claim) Sort of just vibes around for the rest of the turn which I don't really liiiiike but I also can't point out specifically why I wouldn't like it so idek Agree that I don't like Iguana's haphazardness towards the claim, before and after, in general. Beagle: Initial reaction: "... This doesn't feel like a deserved win at all I'm so sorry" (with two further edits expressing how they feel they played like crem and a comment on the inactivity guidelines) I think this is really indicative of v!Beagle, actually. Which makes me happy because I was dreading finding the opposite read here loooool. But no, I think the continued edits and the comments on OOG stuff are v!indicative despite their surprising acceptance of the claim for someone who I would have thought would know Ostrich well enough to doubt (though admittedly i have zero idea who Beagle is) Their desire to vote for a draw is also majorly v!indicative. I think they also dropped their anon persona a bit which goes back to Aftermath Energy Penguin: Initial reaction: None. Jumps straight into the banter and ignores the claim completely. I have no idea how to read this. e case: He's avoiding showing TMI on the situation v case: The claim was a page back by this point and the reactions had kind of run their course. Secondary reaction: "Anyway what is going... what" Again have no idea how to read this. Could be a villager realizing they should probably mention the matter at hand or an elim... realizing they should probably mention the matter at hand. Lion: Initial reaction: "Sigh" followed by an unrelated quote, but then followed by (technically thirding) the call for a draw. Again, I village read this, but if someone wants to tell me I'm confbiasing my village reads that is a totally fair thing to think. I also village read their reaction to Ostrich's retraction. Zebra: Initial reaction: "Guys, I had this epiphany that Ostrich might be evil! Why are there so many pages, what did I miss!" followed by them saying their two shots would have been Ostrich and Ele. That reads very conveniently evil to me but at the same time I don't know if e!Zebra says that knowing they're both village. I do like his line of 'Sorry about your luck, I'll ask questions after the game' though. Albatross: Initial reaction: First post back is unrelated. Second post back is a VC. Third post back is an activity update (still unrelated). This looks like a far worse version of Penguin ignoring the claim. With the VC, there's no way they don't have an idea of what's going on, so they're blatantly dodging making any kind of comment on what happened, which looks like they're dodging revealing their TMI. @Quartz Zebra it's definitely worth shooting here tonight. Swan: Initial reaction: "I think I'll vote for Ostrich. Sorry that your team went inactive, I was having fun. I think I'll stick around and try more of these." My read of this heavily relies on if Swan is actually new. If they are, I village read this. If they aren't, I elim read this. Meerkat: Initial reaction: To naked vote Ostrich, after Ostrich revealed it was a gambit. Funnily enough I'm willing to lock this village because surely an elim doesn't vote wrong here with their TMI after Ostrich just gave them a reason to not. Kanga: Initial reaction: None, because Ostrich revealed before they could see it. They posted to say that, which I think is NAI. TL;DR (but do read pls): Cham village because of Aftermath Energy. Beagle village because of apologetic reactions and offering for a draw. Lion village for confusion and seconding the draw. Meerkat village for voting Ostrich after Ostrich revealed the gambit. Zebra village for apologetic reactions and for guestbook comment. Swan village if new, evil if not. Albatross evil because they were actively avoiding commenting on the situation. Iguana ??? because Iguana. Penguin ??? because. My PoE right now is [Penguin, Swan, Alb, Croc, Iguana, Kanga] ...Can you try to explain why because I know I'm very biased but that is quite possibly the worst shot you could make right now .-.

Ostrich was lock village in my mind. He had heavily pushed Vulture to lengths I don't think ever would come from a teammate. The claim itself was inconsistent. He first went from claiming solo Mistborn (which would create a distro that wouldn't make sense given the player count, imo) to claiming Ele as a teammate and then citing that as the reason for claiming. If that was true, he would have said it the first time. The timing of his claim doesn't make sense. It's one thing to openwolf to a thread that's killing you anyway (AG8 Hyena) and it's another to claim to a thread that has locked you in as village. People were even moving away from Ele at that point. Ostrich's playstyle. It's no secret who he is, and he literally said it multiple times. You'll be hard pressed to find a game where e!Ostrich doesn't fight till the very end. And then some. I can point to a very personal example of this! There was no world where e!Ostrich folds in a threadstate where the trains were on people other than his proposed elim team and people very solidly village read him. It would not happen. There was a post where he basically admitting to faking it. After I first called him out on this, he said "Aman? Trolling? Never..." which. Like. It's not hard to read between the lines there knowing anything about Aman as a player. Pitiful, yes, but possible. There's no way for GMs to use inactivity while balancing reliably so there's no way to use it to clear. The reason I want to shoot Croc is because there's no way they're going to do anything except filter dodge for the rest of the game. Killing them now means that if we fumble this further to exlo we don't have to blindly vote people we don't have any information on. If I'm honest, it was largely because I didn't read the thread after he initially claimed. I had IRL stuff, so I didn't log back on until ten minutes till rollover, and I skimmed everything too fast and missed Ostrich's initial reveal (which came a time that makes way more sense than when I thought he revealed around eleven minutes to rollover). This miss + a misunderstanding of how close the trains were + my busy day + an annoyance and apathy towards the thread + the village read of Penguin I still kinda have = me staying on Alb. Which was obviously the wrong choice but I'm kinda whatever about it because every single person yesterday also make a mistake /shrug If you shoot Lion I'll shoot you :P. Iguana too I'd rather solve in thread because it's actually possible to do so, and Kangaroo is the null slot I village read the most. ...With you on Beagle, tbh >> Oooh and Iguana claimed. I actually believe that! I'll do another megapost later today regarding what I think the results from Ostrich's thing are.

Actually kinda glad Ele died though @Quartz Zebra you should shoot Croc

Dude that’s really dumb Gah I should have piled on Penguin Holding back more choice words @Oxblood Beagle why the heck did you sheep that so easily it was the fakest thing Ostrich why the heck did you hold onto that for so long, revealing that soon to rollover was way too close smh